Formula 1’s driver market was always going to move quickly this season after Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari was made public, but the impression in recent weeks had been that a different Spaniard other than Fernando Alonso was going to make the next move.
Carlos Sainz’s availability had brought into multiple discussions with potential suitors, and the noises coming out of Sainz’s camp were that he was keen to make a quick decision and get his future finalized.
I’ll admit, I really should have known better than to not expect Alonso to beat him to the punch.
This is the same Fernando Alonso who dropped the mic on Alpine back in 2022, announcing he was joining Aston Martin the morning after the Hungarian Grand Prix, just as the mid-season break was about to start and with Alpine still thinking it was going to reach an agreement on an extension.
That move triggered the Oscar Piastri saga, and while this latest deal won’t have quite the same repercussions, it will have a significant impact.
Alonso has locked out an attractive seat for at least the next two seasons; the 42-year-old having committed to race until at least 2026. And while there remain questions over the points return that Lance Stroll brings to Aston Martin, the team maintains that his technical feedback carries significant value.
There’s yet to be any serious murmuring of discontent to suggest that Stroll could be replaced, so while it’s proven to be foolish to assume anything with the driver market this year, let’s rule out any opening at Aston for 2025.
That means Alonso’s commitment has closed a door to Sainz. The Ferrari driver was definitely attracting interest from Mike Krack’s team, but more in the event that Alonso opted to move elsewhere or retire.
The impression from Sainz and his team is that he doesn’t want to wait around for a potential opening at Red Bull — where it’s tough not to have at least slight reservations over both Max Verstappen’s influence and the 2026 power unit situation — nor the vacancy at Mercedes.
Toto Wolff has not been forthcoming with the interest Sainz would want: Andrea Kimi Antonelli is clearly the team’s priority, and a one-year deal is the best any other candidate is likely to get. Sainz wants security after his Ferrari departure, and neither of those front-running teams offer it at this stage in the market.
But there is a longer-term project at Audi that Sainz has regularly been linked with, and the Sauber-run team would provide a more secure home — as long as he agrees to the deal quickly.
A lack of investment for a six-month period, when the team was in limbo over who should be putting the money in, makes it tough to see Stake being a competitive seat in 2025, but moves being made now are with the following season in mind.
“I was just very clear to Aston in the first conversation that the appealing part of this project is everything that we are building; the new campus last year, the wind tunnel this year, it could be the new regulations in 2026 and Honda coming in as a partner,” Alonso said of his decision to stay put.
That same appeal would have been felt by Sainz, and as Thursday’s news has shown, there was a chance of a quick decision there, too. But now that door is closed, Audi or a curveball of a seat at Williams are the most likely options if he wants to stick with a timeline of getting his future finalized in the coming weeks.
Both come fraught with danger, as they could easily leave him saddled with equipment that make it tough to further his reputation in 2025, and question marks over Williams’ ability to make significant strides in 2026 remain, too.
Turn one of them down though, and it leaves Sainz banking on Red Bull opting against keeping Sergio Perez — who has generally done exactly what the team wants him to this season — or Max Verstappen sensationally moving elsewhere. Neither looks overly likely in the coming weeks, and if Audi does move quickly to secure its 2026 lineup from next year onwards, that chance could slip away, too.
All of that uncertainty over the strongest seats — at least in terms of current performance — will have also played a part in Alonso quickly committing to his current home. There were talks with other teams, but without Mercedes or Red Bull giving him any sort of assurances (or perhaps any serious interest), he couldn’t afford to risk Aston Martin lining up alternatives.
It’s a great deal for Alonso and for Aston, and will see a driver who — by his own judgment — is getting better with age racing until he’s at least 45. That’s an incredible story on its own, but it doesn’t remove the fact that the volatility of the driver market has also led to a two-time world champion performing so well still needed to move quickly himself.
Options are going to disappear fast, so the need for Sainz to choose when he is going to make the leap himself, and where to, has just been accelerated by Alonso’s commitment.