For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the St. Louis Cardinals.
Batters
For a very long time, the Cardinals were one of the safest bets in baseball. They’ve rarely been a juggernaut in recent decades, but they almost never had disastrous seasons and could almost always be counted on to end up with somewhere between 87 and 92 wins no matter what kind of shenanigans took place during the season.
Then 2023 happened. After posting just one season below .500 in the 21st century, the Cardinals finished with 91 losses, their worst showing since 1990, which was also the last time they finished in last place in the division. Back then, the team quickly recovered and immediately got back to a winning record, though it didn’t make the playoffs again until 1996.
The lion’s share of the blame for St. Louis’ lousy season doesn’t really sit with the offense. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado both had big drop-offs from 2022, but that’s hardly a surprise considering that both were MVP contenders that year (with the former being the winner) and are on the wrong side of 30. ZiPS expects both to be above-average starters in 2024.
Overall, the offense was sixth in the NL by wRC+, and while that’s hardly a sterling showing, basically all the good parts of the lineup will return this year. Jordan Walker is likely to improve in his second season in the majors — though it remains to be seen if he can actually reasonably play a defensive position — and Masyn Winn was one of the biggest improvers in ZiPS over the course of 2023. There’s certainly some risk with this team — there are several players who are likely in their decline phase and St. Louis isn’t the absolutely phenomenal defensive club it was a few years ago. Nobody projects as a superstar, but there isn’t any gaping hole in the lineup, either. The Cards remain a very Cards-looking offense.
Pitchers
While one can reasonably disagree about whether the Cardinals did enough to shore up their pitching by adding Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn, there’s little doubt about where their 2023 problems lay. Jordan Montgomery was solid and Miles Mikolas ate innings well, but practically everything else went wrong. Steven Matz lost his job in the rotation, a notable feat given the lack of good alternatives, and St. Louis’ yearly plan to get one last good season out of Adam Wainwright finally went horribly awry.
ZiPS like Gray just fine as the ace of the rotation. After that, there’s a significant drop-off, with ZiPS seeing the rest of the team’s rotation options — including the just-signed Lynn and Gibson — as rather nondescript fourth starter types. The good news is that even if the projections aren’t really taken with anyone, there’s at least a healthy headcount here, which will hopefully keep the bottom from falling out this year. ZiPS actually likes the team’s top three pitching prospects — Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, and Gordon Graceffo — quite a bit, it just doesn’t see them being more than ordinary if called into action in 2024.
The bullpen gets a solid set of projections, with five relievers getting ERA projections in the threes. Andre Pallante makes it six if you only look at his ERA projection as a reliever (3.78), and getting a couple starts off of John King’s projection would improve his mark to 4.15. Depending on the system’s assumptions, ZiPS projects the overall bullpen somewhere between eighth and 12th or so in baseball right now, so a clear plus.
So what does it all add up to? ZiPS sees the Cardinals as having patched up enough of their immediate problems to return to winning 85-90 games, depending on what, if anything, the rest of the NL Central does this winter. Like most teams that have a suddenly horrific season, the Cardinals have become underrated in the public eye, and the hastily reassembled rotation, coupled with a solid bullpen and an above-average offensive core, could very well take one of baseball’s weakest divisions.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Nolan Arenado
583
.268
.328
.454
116
.185
.287
6
3.4
.333
80
Tommy Edman
587
.261
.316
.402
99
.142
.295
5
3.1
.312
75
Paul Goldschmidt
613
.267
.354
.452
124
.185
.323
2
2.9
.348
88
Willson Contreras
481
.241
.339
.427
112
.186
.288
-2
2.7
.335
62
Lars Nootbaar
504
.242
.344
.441
118
.200
.275
-4
2.4
.339
67
Masyn Winn
626
.243
.301
.374
88
.132
.290
7
2.4
.295
69
Nolan Gorman
504
.240
.317
.467
116
.227
.308
-4
2.2
.336
68
Richie Palacios
498
.257
.339
.386
103
.129
.296
1
2.1
.320
60
Jordan Walker
625
.269
.338
.467
122
.198
.315
-8
2.0
.346
92
Dylan Carlson
484
.254
.335
.412
108
.158
.304
-1
2.0
.325
60
Brendan Donovan
471
.270
.362
.380
108
.110
.310
-3
1.9
.330
58
Victor Scott II
588
.248
.302
.341
80
.094
.301
6
1.7
.284
68
Thomas Saggese
608
.243
.293
.381
87
.138
.312
3
1.3
.292
65
Iván Herrera
414
.230
.331
.351
91
.121
.295
-3
1.2
.306
43
Alec Burleson
451
.272
.318
.425
106
.154
.299
2
1.2
.321
57
Pedro Pagés
434
.224
.290
.334
74
.110
.292
7
1.2
.276
39
Jimmy Crooks
467
.231
.300
.355
82
.124
.298
2
1.2
.287
45
Kramer Robertson
476
.206
.316
.285
70
.079
.275
9
1.2
.278
40
Matt Koperniak
504
.255
.316
.367
91
.111
.302
5
0.8
.301
56
Taylor Motter
318
.215
.292
.373
85
.158
.279
3
0.8
.290
32
Chris Rotondo
481
.214
.303
.324
76
.110
.310
11
0.7
.282
43
Juniel Querecuto
417
.233
.280
.346
74
.114
.294
7
0.7
.274
39
Mike Antico
521
.221
.283
.341
74
.120
.293
3
0.6
.276
53
Noah Mendlinger
426
.247
.344
.322
89
.075
.290
3
0.6
.304
43
César Prieto
529
.263
.297
.353
81
.090
.293
2
0.5
.284
56
Arquímedes Gamboa
478
.208
.294
.292
65
.085
.289
4
0.5
.266
39
Buddy Kennedy
483
.235
.319
.336
84
.101
.300
-2
0.5
.293
48
Nick Dunn
486
.251
.319
.338
84
.087
.285
-3
0.4
.293
49
Luken Baker
469
.235
.305
.425
101
.190
.286
-2
0.4
.315
55
Nick Raposo
183
.238
.295
.357
82
.119
.298
0
0.4
.286
18
Jose Fermin
301
.242
.320
.345
86
.102
.266
-3
0.3
.297
31
Aaron Antonini
214
.193
.282
.289
60
.096
.262
3
0.3
.260
16
Tres Barrera
277
.230
.301
.335
78
.105
.289
-2
0.3
.281
25
Michael Siani
516
.215
.292
.311
69
.096
.281
3
0.2
.271
49
Jacob Buchberger
431
.226
.281
.333
71
.108
.291
4
0.2
.270
40
Ramon Mendoza
284
.213
.283
.297
63
.084
.287
4
0.0
.261
22
Andrew Knizner
262
.232
.299
.354
82
.122
.287
-5
0.0
.287
26
Alex Iadisernia
488
.222
.286
.364
80
.142
.283
4
0.0
.284
51
R.J. Yeager
516
.249
.307
.372
89
.123
.289
-1
0.0
.298
56
Nathan Church
504
.246
.309
.307
74
.061
.287
8
0.0
.276
49
Errol Robinson
279
.202
.276
.249
49
.047
.305
7
0.0
.242
19
Irving Lopez
339
.222
.293
.321
72
.099
.285
-1
-0.1
.274
29
Justin Toerner
301
.192
.294
.296
66
.104
.285
4
-0.2
.270
24
Jared Young
419
.231
.302
.378
89
.146
.288
-2
-0.2
.297
45
Moisés Gómez
516
.210
.266
.387
79
.176
.304
4
-0.2
.281
50
Scott Hurst
329
.211
.290
.303
66
.092
.294
5
-0.2
.267
29
Darlin Moquete
296
.228
.279
.343
73
.116
.286
0
-0.5
.274
28
Aaron McKeithan
271
.230
.310
.293
70
.063
.281
0
-0.6
.275
22
Chandler Redmond
478
.210
.287
.359
79
.149
.309
1
-0.6
.284
45
Tyler Reichenborn
354
.213
.284
.322
69
.108
.282
2
-0.6
.270
32
Wade Stauss
136
.169
.267
.254
47
.085
.333
0
-0.7
.242
8
Osvaldo Tovalin
470
.233
.274
.324
67
.090
.285
-1
-0.7
.263
41
Todd Lott
406
.211
.268
.337
68
.126
.309
-2
-1.2
.266
35
L.J. Jones
355
.222
.262
.329
64
.108
.274
0
-1.2
.259
29
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Nolan Arenado
.297
.357
.506
138
5.0
.244
.301
.407
96
2.0
Tommy Edman
.286
.341
.442
115
4.3
.232
.286
.354
79
1.4
Paul Goldschmidt
.293
.377
.501
141
4.2
.242
.329
.401
105
1.4
Willson Contreras
.266
.365
.474
132
3.7
.210
.314
.369
92
1.4
Lars Nootbaar
.271
.371
.502
139
3.7
.220
.319
.387
97
1.2
Masyn Winn
.270
.327
.423
107
4.0
.219
.277
.329
70
1.0
Nolan Gorman
.266
.344
.534
139
3.7
.212
.289
.406
94
0.8
Richie Palacios
.283
.362
.427
120
3.1
.231
.314
.340
85
0.9
Jordan Walker
.294
.363
.523
142
3.4
.242
.308
.409
99
0.1
Dylan Carlson
.281
.359
.464
127
3.1
.227
.310
.365
90
0.9
Brendan Donovan
.295
.387
.425
126
2.9
.239
.333
.345
91
0.8
Victor Scott II
.275
.329
.383
99
3.1
.222
.277
.302
63
0.3
Thomas Saggese
.274
.320
.434
108
2.9
.219
.271
.336
69
-0.1
Iván Herrera
.256
.359
.405
112
2.2
.198
.303
.302
72
0.2
Alec Burleson
.300
.346
.479
127
2.4
.245
.288
.379
86
0.1
Pedro Pagés
.255
.320
.378
94
2.3
.198
.264
.290
56
0.2
Jimmy Crooks
.261
.329
.407
101
2.3
.207
.272
.319
65
0.2
Kramer Robertson
.231
.343
.324
87
2.2
.178
.286
.247
53
0.1
Matt Koperniak
.282
.340
.404
107
1.9
.228
.289
.326
74
-0.2
Taylor Motter
.244
.319
.431
107
1.7
.185
.266
.319
62
-0.1
Chris Rotondo
.240
.330
.366
94
1.8
.186
.276
.283
58
-0.4
Juniel Querecuto
.259
.310
.393
94
1.8
.204
.254
.306
58
-0.1
Mike Antico
.246
.305
.381
91
1.8
.197
.256
.301
58
-0.5
Noah Mendlinger
.275
.373
.360
106
1.4
.220
.321
.289
72
-0.3
César Prieto
.291
.321
.394
99
1.7
.234
.271
.316
64
-0.7
Arquímedes Gamboa
.234
.319
.331
82
1.5
.177
.267
.253
48
-0.5
Buddy Kennedy
.257
.345
.376
100
1.5
.205
.291
.298
65
-0.6
Nick Dunn
.278
.345
.369
100
1.3
.223
.288
.296
65
-0.8
Luken Baker
.257
.328
.480
120
1.5
.208
.280
.370
82
-0.7
Nick Raposo
.271
.326
.413
104
0.9
.203
.262
.311
61
-0.1
Jose Fermin
.270
.349
.390
106
1.0
.213
.289
.298
67
-0.4
Aaron Antonini
.221
.314
.344
81
0.8
.165
.253
.243
41
-0.2
Tres Barrera
.263
.333
.392
100
1.0
.197
.266
.292
58
-0.5
Michael Siani
.242
.319
.354
86
1.3
.186
.266
.273
52
-0.9
Jacob Buchberger
.252
.308
.379
91
1.3
.201
.258
.296
54
-0.7
Ramon Mendoza
.247
.315
.347
84
0.8
.188
.255
.253
46
-0.6
Andrew Knizner
.265
.330
.407
103
0.7
.204
.270
.303
61
-0.7
Alex Iadisernia
.251
.312
.415
101
1.2
.196
.259
.317
62
-1.1
R.J. Yeager
.277
.337
.421
110
1.3
.223
.283
.328
71
-1.2
Nathan Church
.271
.337
.344
90
1.1
.215
.283
.273
57
-1.0
Errol Robinson
.228
.303
.282
64
0.6
.176
.246
.215
31
-0.7
Irving Lopez
.252
.324
.367
92
0.7
.195
.265
.275
54
-0.9
Justin Toerner
.220
.324
.344
87
0.6
.164
.264
.257
48
-0.9
Jared Young
.257
.323
.422
105
0.7
.207
.279
.339
76
-0.9
Moisés Gómez
.239
.290
.436
101
1.1
.185
.240
.325
58
-1.6
Scott Hurst
.239
.322
.343
84
0.6
.184
.262
.264
49
-1.0
Darlin Moquete
.256
.306
.391
92
0.2
.201
.251
.305
58
-1.2
Aaron McKeithan
.259
.336
.335
88
0.0
.204
.283
.255
54
-1.1
Chandler Redmond
.238
.312
.411
99
0.6
.178
.258
.311
59
-1.7
Tyler Reichenborn
.241
.316
.365
88
0.2
.188
.259
.283
53
-1.4
Wade Stauss
.198
.292
.295
65
-0.4
.142
.239
.217
30
-1.0
Osvaldo Tovalin
.260
.300
.363
85
0.3
.205
.248
.284
49
-1.8
Todd Lott
.243
.299
.378
88
-0.2
.188
.244
.296
51
-2.1
L.J. Jones
.252
.293
.383
86
-0.3
.198
.240
.288
47
-2.0
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Nolan Arenado
.280
.347
.467
.264
.320
.449
Tommy Edman
.264
.318
.428
.259
.316
.392
Paul Goldschmidt
.282
.376
.486
.262
.346
.440
Willson Contreras
.248
.347
.450
.238
.335
.416
Lars Nootbaar
.233
.336
.405
.245
.347
.455
Masyn Winn
.254
.319
.406
.234
.288
.351
Nolan Gorman
.227
.304
.424
.245
.323
.484
Richie Palacios
.254
.338
.369
.259
.340
.393
Jordan Walker
.273
.347
.483
.266
.331
.455
Dylan Carlson
.267
.349
.435
.248
.328
.401
Brendan Donovan
.261
.353
.357
.273
.365
.389
Victor Scott II
.237
.301
.309
.251
.303
.353
Thomas Saggese
.244
.297
.378
.243
.291
.383
Iván Herrera
.231
.339
.346
.230
.325
.355
Alec Burleson
.271
.316
.410
.272
.319
.434
Pedro Pagés
.226
.298
.333
.223
.285
.335
Jimmy Crooks
.217
.289
.330
.236
.304
.364
Kramer Robertson
.209
.326
.310
.205
.307
.264
Matt Koperniak
.247
.311
.356
.260
.319
.372
Taylor Motter
.223
.312
.397
.209
.278
.356
Chris Rotondo
.214
.308
.321
.215
.301
.326
Juniel Querecuto
.242
.292
.349
.227
.272
.345
Mike Antico
.212
.277
.325
.225
.286
.349
Noah Mendlinger
.238
.333
.317
.251
.349
.324
César Prieto
.253
.287
.329
.268
.302
.364
Arquímedes Gamboa
.205
.294
.291
.209
.293
.293
Buddy Kennedy
.241
.332
.361
.231
.308
.316
Nick Dunn
.236
.305
.311
.259
.326
.352
Luken Baker
.235
.309
.418
.236
.301
.431
Nick Raposo
.240
.305
.360
.237
.287
.355
Jose Fermin
.242
.324
.350
.243
.317
.340
Aaron Antonini
.190
.288
.270
.194
.279
.298
Tres Barrera
.240
.316
.356
.222
.289
.319
Michael Siani
.212
.290
.302
.217
.294
.317
Jacob Buchberger
.235
.298
.349
.219
.268
.322
Ramon Mendoza
.217
.294
.311
.210
.274
.287
Andrew Knizner
.230
.295
.345
.233
.301
.360
Alex Iadisernia
.214
.276
.342
.226
.290
.372
R.J. Yeager
.253
.316
.382
.247
.302
.366
Nathan Church
.238
.304
.317
.249
.310
.303
Errol Robinson
.202
.291
.250
.201
.265
.248
Irving Lopez
.209
.284
.308
.227
.296
.327
Justin Toerner
.194
.295
.286
.191
.294
.302
Jared Young
.220
.287
.366
.237
.310
.383
Moisés Gómez
.218
.277
.406
.204
.257
.372
Scott Hurst
.206
.285
.290
.216
.295
.317
Darlin Moquete
.234
.289
.369
.223
.272
.325
Aaron McKeithan
.232
.313
.293
.229
.308
.293
Chandler Redmond
.195
.270
.323
.216
.294
.375
Tyler Reichenborn
.219
.292
.331
.208
.276
.312
Wade Stauss
.167
.286
.278
.171
.258
.244
Osvaldo Tovalin
.227
.272
.319
.236
.276
.326
Todd Lott
.229
.284
.364
.182
.244
.294
L.J. Jones
.230
.272
.358
.215
.254
.306
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Sonny Gray
R
34
8
6
3.56
28
28
154.0
139
61
17
49
134
Miles Mikolas
R
35
9
10
4.36
28
28
165.0
175
80
25
37
115
Michael McGreevy
R
23
7
7
4.39
27
27
137.3
144
67
17
44
85
Kyle Gibson
R
36
8
10
4.51
27
27
149.7
155
75
18
57
119
Steven Matz
L
33
6
6
3.99
25
19
103.7
104
46
13
32
101
Lance Lynn
R
37
8
10
4.46
25
25
141.3
141
70
21
48
132
Drew Rom
L
24
7
6
4.15
21
20
102.0
100
47
12
37
88
Matthew Liberatore
L
24
8
8
4.36
31
23
121.7
118
59
15
50
108
Connor Thomas
L
26
6
6
4.33
22
18
108.0
117
52
12
30
67
Victor Santos
R
23
6
7
4.42
22
18
110.0
112
54
14
31
74
Dakota Hudson
R
29
7
9
4.51
25
21
123.7
129
62
15
48
75
Connor Lunn
R
25
6
7
4.47
22
20
110.7
121
55
15
27
71
Tink Hence
R
21
5
6
4.39
26
26
104.7
106
51
13
37
73
Sem Robberse
R
22
5
6
4.54
24
23
115.0
117
58
15
45
86
Tekoah Roby
R
22
5
5
4.34
20
20
87.0
84
42
11
31
72
Packy Naughton
L
28
5
4
4.14
24
12
78.3
82
36
10
22
66
Gordon Graceffo
R
24
5
6
4.56
22
21
104.7
103
53
14
36
75
Adam Kloffenstein
R
23
5
7
4.58
25
24
114.0
113
58
14
48
93
Alex Cornwell
L
25
4
5
4.45
20
16
97.0
105
48
13
23
59
JoJo Romero
L
27
5
4
3.68
38
4
58.7
53
24
8
22
69
Zack Thompson
L
26
6
7
4.45
32
16
93.0
87
46
11
47
87
Wilfredo Pereira
R
25
7
8
4.78
24
19
113.0
121
60
15
41
73
Andre Pallante
R
25
4
3
4.25
51
7
84.7
89
40
9
34
58
Ryan Helsley
R
29
5
4
3.46
47
0
52.0
41
20
7
21
62
Casey Lawrence
R
36
5
6
4.65
20
17
91.0
100
47
13
23
60
Adam Wainwright
R
42
7
9
4.88
22
22
121.7
137
66
18
42
77
Giovanny Gallegos
R
32
4
3
3.65
55
0
56.7
47
23
8
16
67
Logan Gragg
R
25
5
6
4.81
25
17
103.0
114
55
15
33
62
Brandon Komar
R
25
4
6
4.74
24
17
100.7
111
53
13
39
59
Jake Woodford
R
27
4
5
4.57
27
15
80.7
83
41
10
32
56
Kenny Hernandez
L
26
4
5
4.71
20
13
78.3
85
41
10
30
50
Nick Robertson
R
25
3
2
3.78
45
1
52.3
47
22
6
18
53
Dalton Roach
R
28
5
5
4.48
35
6
78.3
82
39
11
27
62
Riley O’Brien
R
29
4
4
4.50
36
8
64.0
58
32
9
35
69
Tommy Parsons
R
28
4
5
4.85
22
12
81.7
88
44
12
31
51
Kyle Leahy
R
27
5
6
4.86
34
10
92.7
99
50
13
42
71
John King
L
29
4
3
4.26
43
2
57.0
63
27
7
15
35
Ryan Fernandez
R
26
4
4
3.91
37
0
50.7
50
22
7
15
45
Matt Svanson
R
25
4
4
4.42
34
3
55.0
55
27
7
19
44
James Naile
R
31
4
4
4.52
38
4
69.7
75
35
9
23
52
Andrew Suarez 수아레즈
L
31
3
3
4.68
34
4
82.7
89
43
12
28
61
Benito Garcia
R
24
3
4
4.66
26
3
48.3
53
25
6
14
30
Bryan Pope
R
25
3
3
4.58
33
2
59.0
63
30
8
19
40
Edgar Escobar
R
27
4
7
5.08
24
9
72.7
78
41
10
33
48
Drew VerHagen
R
33
3
3
4.58
44
3
57.0
56
29
9
24
56
Ryan Loutos
R
25
3
4
4.43
45
0
69.0
69
34
8
28
58
Andre Granillo
R
24
3
4
4.40
47
0
59.3
56
29
8
31
58
Guillermo Zuñiga
R
25
2
3
4.61
34
0
41.0
38
21
6
21
40
Wilking Rodríguez
R
34
1
1
4.32
17
0
16.7
17
8
2
8
15
Jacob Barnes
R
34
1
2
4.62
31
0
39.0
41
20
5
17
31
Jake Walsh
R
28
2
2
4.67
23
0
27.0
25
14
4
15
26
Ryan Shreve
R
26
3
4
4.60
37
0
58.7
63
30
8
24
41
Jack Ralston
R
26
1
2
5.11
27
3
37.0
34
21
5
29
37
Grant Black
R
29
3
5
5.04
38
4
69.7
75
39
10
35
48
Ryan Tepera
R
36
2
3
4.95
39
0
36.3
35
20
6
17
29
Roy Garcia
R
23
5
6
4.89
38
0
57.0
56
31
8
32
49
Logan Sawyer
R
31
3
4
5.24
39
0
44.7
48
26
7
22
34
Chris Roycroft
R
27
5
8
5.17
39
0
55.7
58
32
7
30
41
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson
R
26
3
5
5.16
38
0
61.0
65
35
8
25
35
Jose Martinez
R
25
2
5
5.76
27
4
59.3
69
38
8
33
25
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Sonny Gray
154.0
7.8
2.9
1.0
7.6%
20.7%
.278
118
4.04
85
3.0
Miles Mikolas
165.0
6.3
2.0
1.4
5.3%
16.5%
.290
96
4.61
104
1.9
Michael McGreevy
137.3
5.6
2.9
1.1
7.4%
14.4%
.287
96
4.61
104
1.6
Kyle Gibson
149.7
7.2
3.4
1.1
8.7%
18.2%
.300
93
4.51
107
1.5
Steven Matz
103.7
8.8
2.8
1.1
7.2%
22.8%
.310
105
3.98
95
1.5
Lance Lynn
141.3
8.4
3.1
1.3
7.9%
21.7%
.299
94
4.49
106
1.5
Drew Rom
102.0
7.8
3.3
1.1
8.4%
19.9%
.294
101
4.32
99
1.4
Matthew Liberatore
121.7
8.0
3.7
1.1
9.4%
20.4%
.293
96
4.51
104
1.3
Connor Thomas
108.0
5.6
2.5
1.0
6.5%
14.4%
.297
97
4.46
103
1.3
Victor Santos
110.0
6.1
2.5
1.1
6.7%
15.9%
.284
95
4.55
105
1.3
Dakota Hudson
123.7
5.5
3.5
1.1
8.8%
13.8%
.285
93
4.95
107
1.2
Connor Lunn
110.7
5.8
2.2
1.2
5.7%
15.0%
.296
94
4.57
106
1.2
Tink Hence
104.7
6.3
3.2
1.1
8.1%
16.0%
.285
96
4.62
104
1.1
Sem Robberse
115.0
6.7
3.5
1.2
8.9%
17.1%
.290
93
4.76
108
1.1
Tekoah Roby
87.0
7.4
3.2
1.1
8.3%
19.3%
.285
97
4.45
103
1.1
Packy Naughton
78.3
7.6
2.5
1.1
6.5%
19.6%
.306
102
4.15
98
1.0
Gordon Graceffo
104.7
6.4
3.1
1.2
8.0%
16.6%
.278
92
4.71
108
1.0
Adam Kloffenstein
114.0
7.3
3.8
1.1
9.5%
18.5%
.291
92
4.77
109
1.0
Alex Cornwell
97.0
5.5
2.1
1.2
5.5%
14.2%
.291
94
4.62
106
1.0
JoJo Romero
58.7
10.6
3.4
1.2
8.8%
27.6%
.304
114
3.90
88
0.9
Zack Thompson
93.0
8.4
4.5
1.1
11.4%
21.2%
.291
94
4.60
106
0.9
Wilfredo Pereira
113.0
5.8
3.3
1.2
8.2%
14.7%
.292
88
4.94
114
0.8
Andre Pallante
84.7
6.2
3.6
1.0
9.0%
15.4%
.297
99
4.58
101
0.8
Ryan Helsley
52.0
10.7
3.6
1.2
9.6%
28.3%
.272
122
3.83
82
0.8
Casey Lawrence
91.0
5.9
2.3
1.3
5.9%
15.4%
.297
90
4.68
111
0.7
Adam Wainwright
121.7
5.7
3.1
1.3
7.8%
14.4%
.300
86
5.05
116
0.7
Giovanny Gallegos
56.7
10.6
2.5
1.3
6.9%
28.9%
.283
115
3.68
87
0.7
Logan Gragg
103.0
5.4
2.9
1.3
7.3%
13.8%
.293
88
5.11
114
0.7
Brandon Komar
100.7
5.3
3.5
1.2
8.7%
13.2%
.294
89
5.01
113
0.7
Jake Woodford
80.7
6.2
3.6
1.1
9.0%
15.8%
.289
92
4.85
109
0.6
Kenny Hernandez
78.3
5.7
3.4
1.1
8.6%
14.4%
.295
89
4.90
112
0.5
Nick Robertson
52.3
9.1
3.1
1.0
8.1%
23.9%
.291
111
3.87
90
0.5
Dalton Roach
78.3
7.1
3.1
1.3
7.9%
18.2%
.298
94
4.65
107
0.5
Riley O’Brien
64.0
9.7
4.9
1.3
12.3%
24.2%
.292
93
4.85
107
0.5
Tommy Parsons
81.7
5.6
3.4
1.3
8.7%
14.2%
.289
87
5.09
115
0.4
Kyle Leahy
92.7
6.9
4.1
1.3
10.1%
17.1%
.301
87
5.00
115
0.4
John King
57.0
5.5
2.4
1.1
6.1%
14.2%
.299
99
4.52
101
0.4
Ryan Fernandez
50.7
8.0
2.7
1.2
7.0%
21.0%
.295
108
4.22
93
0.3
Matt Svanson
55.0
7.2
3.1
1.1
8.0%
18.5%
.291
95
4.56
105
0.3
James Naile
69.7
6.7
3.0
1.2
7.5%
17.0%
.303
93
4.60
108
0.3
Andrew Suarez
82.7
6.6
3.0
1.3
7.7%
16.8%
.298
90
4.72
111
0.2
Benito Garcia
48.3
5.6
2.6
1.1
6.6%
14.2%
.297
90
4.68
111
0.2
Bryan Pope
59.0
6.1
2.9
1.2
7.5%
15.7%
.294
92
4.83
109
0.2
Edgar Escobar
72.7
5.9
4.1
1.2
10.1%
14.7%
.293
83
5.29
121
0.1
Drew VerHagen
57.0
8.8
3.8
1.4
9.6%
22.5%
.297
92
4.92
109
0.1
Ryan Loutos
69.0
7.6
3.7
1.0
9.2%
19.1%
.298
95
4.43
105
0.1
Andre Granillo
59.3
8.8
4.7
1.2
11.5%
21.6%
.293
96
4.67
105
0.1
Guillermo Zuñiga
41.0
8.8
4.6
1.3
11.4%
21.7%
.286
91
4.89
110
0.0
Wilking Rodríguez
16.7
8.1
4.3
1.1
10.8%
20.3%
.306
97
4.46
103
0.0
Jacob Barnes
39.0
7.2
3.9
1.2
9.8%
17.8%
.303
91
4.72
110
-0.1
Jake Walsh
27.0
8.7
5.0
1.3
12.5%
21.7%
.284
90
5.14
111
-0.1
Ryan Shreve
58.7
6.3
3.7
1.2
9.2%
15.7%
.297
91
4.91
109
-0.1
Jack Ralston
37.0
9.0
7.1
1.2
16.3%
20.8%
.290
82
5.44
121
-0.1
Grant Black
69.7
6.2
4.5
1.3
11.0%
15.1%
.294
83
5.42
120
-0.1
Ryan Tepera
36.3
7.2
4.2
1.5
10.6%
18.0%
.274
85
5.46
118
-0.2
Roy Garcia
57.0
7.7
5.1
1.3
12.1%
18.6%
.289
86
5.26
116
-0.3
Logan Sawyer
44.7
6.9
4.4
1.4
10.7%
16.6%
.297
80
5.45
125
-0.3
Chris Roycroft
55.7
6.6
4.9
1.1
11.8%
16.1%
.295
81
5.25
123
-0.4
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson
61.0
5.2
3.7
1.2
9.2%
12.9%
.285
81
5.44
123
-0.5
Jose Martinez
59.3
3.8
5.0
1.2
11.8%
9.0%
.292
73
6.09
137
-0.5
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Sonny Gray
.227
.295
.371
.244
.304
.385
3.8
2.2
3.16
4.06
Miles Mikolas
.278
.323
.459
.255
.295
.433
2.8
1.0
3.87
4.92
Michael McGreevy
.281
.350
.469
.249
.288
.381
2.3
0.9
3.95
4.83
Kyle Gibson
.272
.347
.432
.251
.314
.401
2.3
0.5
4.00
5.18
Steven Matz
.255
.324
.394
.255
.310
.417
2.1
0.6
3.44
4.88
Lance Lynn
.267
.347
.466
.242
.293
.399
2.4
0.5
3.80
5.30
Drew Rom
.224
.295
.352
.263
.333
.423
1.9
0.8
3.71
4.74
Matthew Liberatore
.235
.309
.338
.254
.336
.429
2.1
0.5
3.84
4.94
Connor Thomas
.252
.301
.378
.279
.334
.438
1.8
0.6
3.91
4.86
Victor Santos
.244
.300
.399
.273
.325
.436
1.8
0.5
3.99
5.02
Dakota Hudson
.272
.352
.443
.255
.319
.400
1.8
0.6
4.10
4.98
Connor Lunn
.288
.336
.438
.258
.299
.449
1.8
0.5
4.00
5.10
Tink Hence
.254
.318
.406
.260
.324
.423
1.7
0.5
3.94
4.91
Sem Robberse
.262
.353
.447
.255
.309
.397
1.8
0.5
4.07
5.03
Tekoah Roby
.228
.305
.369
.263
.324
.437
1.6
0.5
3.82
4.91
Packy Naughton
.235
.282
.333
.278
.330
.474
1.5
0.4
3.65
4.89
Gordon Graceffo
.258
.332
.435
.247
.303
.399
1.7
0.4
4.07
5.05
Adam Kloffenstein
.266
.354
.453
.240
.322
.365
1.7
0.3
4.16
5.13
Alex Cornwell
.279
.314
.459
.267
.317
.426
1.5
0.4
4.02
4.93
JoJo Romero
.239
.316
.373
.234
.303
.405
1.4
0.3
2.97
4.59
Zack Thompson
.214
.317
.330
.254
.344
.422
1.5
0.1
3.91
5.16
Wilfredo Pereira
.264
.339
.420
.272
.331
.452
1.4
0.3
4.34
5.21
Andre Pallante
.253
.315
.367
.274
.351
.446
1.2
0.1
3.87
4.81
Ryan Helsley
.216
.296
.386
.208
.280
.358
1.3
0.1
2.71
4.40
Casey Lawrence
.284
.332
.472
.263
.311
.421
1.2
0.1
4.14
5.44
Adam Wainwright
.288
.358
.482
.271
.319
.436
1.2
-0.1
4.43
5.60
Giovanny Gallegos
.224
.283
.398
.217
.278
.374
1.4
-0.2
2.73
5.15
Logan Gragg
.294
.356
.492
.257
.317
.408
1.2
0.2
4.40
5.18
Brandon Komar
.278
.348
.439
.271
.333
.436
1.2
0.2
4.34
5.17
Jake Woodford
.267
.341
.418
.254
.328
.422
1.0
0.2
4.12
5.10
Kenny Hernandez
.250
.309
.375
.279
.348
.456
0.9
0.0
4.35
5.30
Nick Robertson
.235
.309
.376
.235
.299
.383
1.0
-0.1
3.06
4.82
Dalton Roach
.289
.350
.486
.243
.306
.396
1.1
-0.1
3.91
5.13
Riley O’Brien
.236
.349
.396
.236
.337
.407
1.0
-0.1
3.84
5.36
Tommy Parsons
.278
.349
.450
.263
.318
.446
0.9
-0.1
4.35
5.38
Kyle Leahy
.258
.341
.417
.275
.348
.454
1.0
-0.3
4.34
5.52
John King
.239
.295
.352
.291
.335
.468
0.7
0.0
3.75
4.83
Ryan Fernandez
.261
.327
.455
.245
.288
.391
0.7
-0.1
3.27
4.74
Matt Svanson
.258
.327
.452
.252
.321
.382
0.7
0.0
3.80
4.94
James Naile
.280
.338
.439
.259
.325
.429
0.8
-0.2
3.89
5.19
Andrew Suarez
.238
.284
.366
.283
.343
.478
0.8
-0.3
4.04
5.38
Benito Garcia
.277
.337
.447
.270
.321
.420
0.5
-0.2
4.15
5.31
Bryan Pope
.282
.348
.456
.258
.317
.417
0.6
-0.2
4.03
5.16
Edgar Escobar
.282
.375
.458
.258
.331
.428
0.6
-0.4
4.64
5.72
Drew VerHagen
.271
.360
.438
.236
.319
.425
0.6
-0.4
3.94
5.30
Ryan Loutos
.269
.358
.437
.243
.305
.375
0.5
-0.4
3.90
5.00
Andre Granillo
.265
.372
.422
.227
.301
.391
0.5
-0.5
3.82
5.16
Guillermo Zuñiga
.274
.376
.521
.212
.299
.329
0.3
-0.3
3.96
5.37
Wilking Rodríguez
.250
.351
.375
.265
.316
.412
0.2
-0.2
3.50
5.49
Jacob Barnes
.265
.359
.397
.264
.323
.448
0.2
-0.4
4.02
5.30
Jake Walsh
.245
.373
.449
.236
.317
.400
0.1
-0.4
4.15
5.36
Ryan Shreve
.274
.350
.453
.266
.326
.422
0.2
-0.5
4.16
5.15
Jack Ralston
.239
.372
.437
.239
.368
.380
0.2
-0.5
4.43
5.95
Grant Black
.278
.366
.444
.261
.349
.451
0.3
-0.7
4.47
5.71
Ryan Tepera
.237
.348
.475
.256
.333
.415
0.2
-0.6
4.14
6.11
Roy Garcia
.253
.353
.404
.250
.352
.435
0.2
-0.7
4.30
5.50
Logan Sawyer
.271
.367
.435
.266
.346
.468
0.0
-0.7
4.53
6.09
Chris Roycroft
.280
.386
.439
.246
.331
.404
0.0
-0.8
4.68
5.95
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson
.276
.366
.457
.260
.340
.409
-0.2
-0.8
4.77
5.75
Jose Martinez
.306
.400
.495
.267
.362
.435
-0.2
-0.8
5.31
6.32
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.