For the ninth time (in 10 years — it’s a long story), we’ve reached the point in the offseason where I run down the ZiPS Top 100 prospects. For those wandering in who may hear “ZiPS” and think of the University of Akron or possibly the popular Cincinnati burger spot, ZiPS is a computer projection system that crunches a lot of data about players and attempts to peer through the fog that obscures the future. You can read more about the system here or in MLB.com’s executive summary.
ZiPS prospect projections aren’t an attempt to supplant scouting. Rather, they try to be a supplement to scout-generated lists. There’s a lot of uncertainty in lower-level minor league stats that isn’t present at the upper levels. As such, non-statistical information about players takes on added value. ZiPS doesn’t seek to be the one-ring-to-bind-them-all-unified-field-theory-giant-Katamari-Damacy-ball of prognostication; it aims to give the very best data-generated predictions possible, for people to use, ignore, mock, or worship according to their personal tastes and worldview.
How does it work? Let’s turn back the clock to 2014 and the very first ZiPS Top 100:
ZiPS Top 100 Prospects – 2014
You can see ZiPS’ failures and successes. Arismendy Alcantara and Alen Hanson appeared on other Top 100 prospect lists, but ZiPS was easily the most optimistic, which definitely didn’t work out. The computer went out on a limb with Taylor Lindsey, a projection it would come to regret (that is, if I were able to program something to have feelings). But there were successes, too. ZiPS was easily the most bullish on Mookie Betts and Kolten Wong, and Marcus Semien was a rarity on other Top 100 lists at all (Baseball America did have him at no. 91), let alone this high. It was the big believer in Jonathan Schoop, and it pumped the brakes a bit on Robert Stephenson and Kyle Crick. The players on the 2014 Top 100 have combined for 922.7 WAR in the majors through the end of 2023 (not including the stray WAR for pitchers as hitters); the top 50 guys have racked up 645.7 WAR.
So, without further exposition, let’s jump into the Top 100 for 2024:
ZiPS Top 100 Prospects – 2024
As usual, there is a lot of agreement between ZiPS and the prospect team when it comes to the game’s top prospects. This year, 60 names on the ZiPS Top 100 match those found on the FanGraphs Top 100. That’s slightly lower than the average (67), but a lot of that comes down to the fact that I’m still including foreign professional players (who can’t net their team draft pick compensation under the Prospect Promotion Incentive program) on this list. I like to contextualize how players like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shōta Imanaga would fit in with other prospects coming up through the minor leagues; I don’t necessarily think that that’s a better choice, but I prefer to err on the side of providing too much information, not too little. (To that end, Eric and Tess noted in the introduction to their Top 100 that on talent, Yamamoto would have ranked second overall, while Jung Hoo Lee would have stacked next to Drew Gilbert. You can find their reports on The Board.) ZiPS is also still using the old rookie eligibility rules regarding September roster days, meaning the computer sees someone like Davis Schneider, who technically graduated from rookie status last year based on active roster days, as qualifying for the ZiPS Top 100.
As always, there are a few players who fall outside the purview of a projection system. ZiPS has literally nothing to go on for players like Leodalis De Vries or Jonny Farmelo. ZiPS also can’t do much with high school players, so the system has to go with very limited minor league data when looking at guys like Max Clark. If you’ve figured out how to translate high school stats in a meaningful fashion, you should be publishing this data rather than reading this article, because you’re way better at this than I am! Pitchers like Rhett Lowder and Chase Dollander take pretty big hits because while ZiPS uses college performance when it has to (to my eternal chagrin), it certainly doesn’t trust that data very much.
Let’s start by looking at the overall team numbers:
ZiPS Prospects by Team – 2024
Organization
Top 50
Top 100
Top 200
Top 500
Chicago Cubs
3
6
10
20
Pittsburgh Pirates
2
6
10
24
San Diego Padres
2
6
9
17
Cincinnati Reds
1
6
6
14
Boston Red Sox
3
5
12
21
Baltimore Orioles
3
5
7
14
Arizona Diamondbacks
4
4
8
18
Texas Rangers
2
4
11
20
Minnesota Twins
2
4
7
15
San Francisco Giants
2
4
7
23
Atlanta Braves
2
4
5
11
Cleveland Guardians
1
4
6
16
Chicago White Sox
1
4
5
18
Seattle Mariners
3
3
7
17
Tampa Bay Rays
3
3
5
24
Toronto Blue Jays
3
3
4
13
St. Louis Cardinals
2
3
11
23
Milwaukee Brewers
2
3
9
19
Detroit Tigers
2
3
8
17
New York Yankees
1
3
7
16
New York Mets
1
3
7
23
Philadelphia Phillies
1
3
3
7
Washington Nationals
2
2
5
11
Los Angeles Dodgers
1
2
10
20
Colorado Rockies
1
2
7
20
Oakland Athletics
0
2
3
12
Los Angeles Angels
0
2
2
12
Miami Marlins
0
1
5
10
Kansas City Royals
0
0
3
15
Houston Astros
0
0
1
10
Twenty-eight of the 30 teams have someone in the top 100, with only the Astros and the Royals shut out. Last year’s shutouts — the Padres, Tigers, and Braves — all did notably better this time around, especially San Diego. The Red Sox featured the most players in the top 200; when we go all the way out to 500 prospects, the Rays take the top spot. Tampa Bay didn’t do nearly as well in the top 50 or 100, but it’s a deep system that can crank out Joey Wendles all day long, almost as if they were the Wonka factory. (I’m now picturing an Oompa Loompa song about Wendle, which amuses me, and possibly only me.)
I don’t do a full statistical writeup of each member of the Top 100 — there’s no way you’ve already finished reading all of the work from Eric and Tess, so get to it! — but I will break down the rankings into some more manageable position-related chunks and touch on a few of the highlights. Let’s start with the first basemen:
ZiPS Top 10 First Base Prospects – 2024
First base prospects usually aren’t an exciting bunch, simply because many of the next generation’s best first basemen will be players who didn’t quite make the cut defensively at other positions. This was always true to an extent, even before the mean old statheads with our vindictive positional adjustments ruined front offices. Many of top first basemen of the last generation or two started out at third base (Jim Thome, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira) or catcher (Carlos Delgado, Carlos Santana) in the minors. Miguel Cabrera played more minor league games at shortstop than any other position!
Nolan Schanuel just sneaks onto this list in terms of eligibility, and he looks like he’ll be an OBP-machine in the majors. He and Zach Neto reflect well on the ability of the Los Angeles Angels to draft position players who can contribute almost instantly in the majors. The problem with that organization, of course, is the lack of ability to do much else. Kyle Manzardo takes an injury hit from last year’s ranking, but he’s still on track to be a decent starter in the majors and was a good pickup for the Guardians, at least if the computer is correct.
After Manzardo, there’s a big drop to Abimelec Ortiz, a thicc first baseman who terrorized the Sally League to the tune of 26 homers in 80 games without putting up a criminal number of whiffs. ZiPS only projects a .227/.285/.435 line for him in 2024, but he’s still got a ways to go, and I suspect the Rangers will be more open-minded to a classic Swing from the Heels first baseman than most organizations these days. Xavier Isaac would rank higher, but he’s about six months to a year behind Ortiz, and ZiPS just wants to see a bit more. One should take Matt Mervis’s raw numbers in the minors with a grain of salt, simply because offense is so inflated in the upper minors right now, but ZiPS still sees him and Spencer Horwitz at least being decent stopgaps at first in a year or two. It’s not the most exciting stuff, but it pays the bills and racks up those pension days!
ZiPS Top 10 Second Base Prospects – 2024
Rank
Player
Pos.
Overall ZiPS Rank
Organization
FanGraphs Rank
1
Termarr Johnson
2B
25
Pittsburgh Pirates
37
2
Davis Schneider
2B
28
Toronto Blue Jays
Unranked
3
Jace Jung
2B
43
Detroit Tigers
48
4
Ronny Mauricio
2B
65
New York Mets
Unranked
5
Jorbit Vivas
2B
67
New York Yankees
Unranked
6
Nick Yorke
2B
76
Boston Red Sox
Unranked
7
Jared Serna
2B
77
New York Yankees
Unranked
8
Juan Brito
2B
80
Cleveland Guardians
Unranked
9
Carlos Jorge
2B
81
Cincinnati Reds
Unranked
10
Justin Foscue
2B
83
Texas Rangers
Unranked
One thing that ZiPS regularly disagrees with the prospect team on is how it considers second basemen. This year, ZiPS landed 15 second basemen in the Top 100 while the FanGraphs list only has two! It’s understandable in that second base feels a bit like the consolation prize, like when you get Nacho Cheese Doritos instead of Cool Ranch. ZiPS generally agrees with Eric and Tess on Termarr Johnson and Jace Jung. I’m still not sure if Jace Jung ends up at second or third — this partially depends on what the team does with Colt Keith — but he ranks similarly either way.
After that, we get to the guys the computer likes more than the scouts. Jorbit Vivas appears for the second straight year with a nearly identical ranking, and while he doesn’t have a great deal of upside, he could be a fine fill-in for four or five years if the Yankees move on from Gleyber Torres. In that way, he’s not that dissimilar from a pre-Mariners Kolten Wong. And if Vivas doesn’t work out, ZiPS is also into Jared Serna, who showed some solid power numbers in A-ball last year.
ZiPS Top 15 Shortstop Prospects – 2024
Rank
Player
Pos.
Overall ZiPS Rank
Organization
FanGraphs Rank
1
Jackson Holliday
SS
2
Baltimore Orioles
1
2
Jordan Lawlar
SS
3
Arizona Diamondbacks
8
3
Jackson Merrill
SS
9
San Diego Padres
30
4
Carson Williams
SS
11
Tampa Bay Rays
21
5
Masyn Winn
SS
12
St. Louis Cardinals
25
6
Adael Amador
SS
14
Colorado Rockies
17
7
Cole Young
SS
17
Seattle Mariners
49
8
Marcelo Mayer
SS
18
Boston Red Sox
69
9
Jett Williams
SS
29
New York Mets
54
10
Edwin Arroyo
SS
33
Cincinnati Reds
Unranked
11
Brooks Lee
SS
34
Minnesota Twins
42
12
Orelvis Martinez
SS
36
Toronto Blue Jays
66
13
Brayan Rocchio
SS
42
Cleveland Guardians
59
14
Marco Luciano
SS
53
San Francisco Giants
Unranked
15
Colson Montgomery
SS
55
Chicago White Sox
13
Jackson Holliday is terrific, of course; if he doesn’t work out in the majors, it’ll be the most wrong the computers and scouts have ever been. He’s gotten so much press that I wonder if Jordan Lawlar hasn’t become a bit underrated in general fandom? An .840 OPS in Double-A is fantastic for a 20-year-old shortstop, and he was even better in his brief stint at Triple-A. Jackson Merrill’s projection doesn’t take much of a hit if he ends up at second base, but ZiPS, which uses a probabilistic measure of minor league defense based on the coordinate locations of every ball hit into play, isn’t actually worried about his defense at short, seeing him as about average there. The bigger problem for him, of course, is the presence of Xander Bogaerts on a large contract. If the Padres get off to a bad start this year, they may need to make a decision on Ha-Seong Kim, the incumbent second baseman.
Masyn Winn was one of the biggest one-year gainers in ZiPS, with the computer now loving him as much as any scouts do. Adael Amador would rank even higher, but ZiPS does have some concerns about his defense, leading to a -6 run projection for him at shortstop right now. Change that to zero, and he moves up behind Merrill. If you’re looking for a sleeper, I’d go with Danny De Andrade, who showed some moderate power in a full season in A-ball; the computer is also mildly optimistic about his glove.
ZiPS Top 10 Third Base Prospects – 2024
Rank
Player
Pos.
Overall ZiPS Rank
Organization
FanGraphs Rank
1
Coby Mayo
3B
7
Baltimore Orioles
23
2
Junior Caminero
3B
20
Tampa Bay Rays
4
3
Colt Keith
3B
24
Detroit Tigers
46
4
Curtis Mead
3B
49
Tampa Bay Rays
31
5
Noelvi Marte
3B
52
Cincinnati Reds
41
6
Bryan Ramos
3B
64
Chicago White Sox
51
7
Sal Stewart
3B
79
Cincinnati Reds
Unranked
8
Michael Busch
3B
82
Chicago Cubs
84
9
Luke Adams
3B
106
Milwaukee Brewers
Unranked
10
Tyler Black
3B
135
Milwaukee Brewers
Unranked
Between Coby Mayo and another Oriole in the next section, Baltimore could very well have yet another serious contender for the top spot going into 2025. ZiPS thinks Mayo will peak with an OPS+ in the 115-125 range and contribute above-average defense at third. ZiPS sees Junior Caminero as one of the better power hitters at third over the next decade, though he certainly doesn’t have the look of a burly slugger. ZiPS is still holding out hope that Michael Busch can play third base; if you only consider him a first baseman, he drops quite a bit, as the computer just doesn’t see him having the offensive upside you like there. Colt Keith, Noelvi Marte and Curtis Mead project similarly by both ZiPS and the prospect team.
Long-time ZiPS fave Bryan Ramos has actually slipped a bit since last year, by virtue of an early-season groin injury that nagged at him in 2023, as well as the fact that there’s now one fewer year left for some crazy breakout to happen. Ramos actually dropped to fourth in the White Sox organization in this ranking, passed by Noah Schultz, Colson Montgomery, and Edgar Quero. At least he’s not lonely on the Top 100 these days.
ZiPS Top 10 Catcher Prospects – 2024
Rank
Player
Pos.
Overall ZiPS Rank
Organization
FanGraphs Rank
1
Samuel Basallo
C
27
Baltimore Orioles
7
2
Jeferson Quero
C
39
Milwaukee Brewers
40
3
Harry Ford
C
44
Seattle Mariners
55
4
Edgar Quero
C
56
Chicago White Sox
58
5
Ethan Salas
C
63
San Diego Padres
5
6
Kyle Teel
C
66
Boston Red Sox
80
7
Jimmy Crooks
C
127
St. Louis Cardinals
Unranked
8
Diego Cartaya
C
134
Los Angeles Dodgers
68
9
Dalton Rushing
C
141
Los Angeles Dodgers
60
10
Agustin Ramirez
C
142
New York Yankees
Unranked
Basallo! After a monster season that saw him get some time at Double-A Bowie while still a teenager, Samuel Basallo has shot up the rankings to be the top catcher on the list. The overall ranking is only lower than FanGraphs’ because, well, catchers sometimes have weird, unpredictable developmental patterns, so ZiPS isn’t quite as confident as it would be if he were the same player but at shortstop. Jeferson Quero will likely remain at catcher, and ZiPS is more optimistic about his offense now that he’s played a bit in the upper minors. The only thing I’m sadly missing is framing for minor leaguers. Ethan Salas could move up this list as fast as Basallo did in the last year, but the computer still wants to see more of him before taking the plunge. As long as he stays a catcher, Harry Ford will keep sticking on this list, but ZiPS doesn’t think he’ll provide quite enough offense — at least in the median outcome — to move to another position, seeing him as kind of Diet Dave Magadan.
ZiPS Top 25 Outfield Prospects – 2024
Rank
Player
Pos.
Overall ZiPS Rank
Organization
FanGraphs Rank
1
Jackson Chourio
CF
4
Milwaukee Brewers
3
2
James Wood
CF
6
Washington Nationals
6
3
Wyatt Langford
LF
8
Texas Rangers
2
4
Evan Carter
LF
10
Texas Rangers
12
5
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CF
13
Chicago Cubs
20
6
Jung Hoo Lee
CF
15
San Francisco Giants
Unranked
7
Jasson Domínguez
CF
21
New York Yankees
53
8
Roman Anthony
CF
22
Boston Red Sox
14
9
Emmanuel Rodriguez
CF
23
Minnesota Twins
39
10
Ceddanne Rafaela
CF
26
Boston Red Sox
50
11
Kevin Alcántara
CF
37
Chicago Cubs
33
12
Dylan Crews
CF
46
Washington Nationals
9
13
Jonatan Clase
CF
47
Seattle Mariners
Unranked
14
Jorge Barrosa
CF
50
Arizona Diamondbacks
Unranked
15
Jud Fabian
CF
61
Baltimore Orioles
Unranked
16
Andy Pages
CF
72
Los Angeles Dodgers
Unranked
17
Heston Kjerstad
RF
86
Baltimore Orioles
24
18
Parker Meadows
CF
119
Detroit Tigers
Unranked
19
Samuel Zavala
CF
138
San Diego Padres
Unranked
20
Max Clark
CF
153
Detroit Tigers
36
21
Victor Scott II
CF
160
St. Louis Cardinals
83
22
Drew Gilbert
CF
164
New York Mets
52
23
Colton Cowser
CF
170
Baltimore Orioles
Unranked
24
Lazaro Montes
RF
185
Seattle Mariners
Unranked
25
Owen Caissie
RF
196
Chicago Cubs
65
Naturally, most of the players on this list are center fielders, because center fielders end up largely being the ones who end up filling all the outfield positions when they graduate. Jackson Chourio’s upside is massive and he comfortably fits on the top of the list.
There are two big exceptions to this centerfieldocracy, with two Rangers left fielders, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, fighting it out with Chourio and James Wood. Carter, of course, excelled in a late-season call-up and the playoffs, much like Randy Arozarena did a few years ago. Langford has as much power upside as anyone in the minors, and ZiPS sees him as the safest offense-only choice in the minor leagues as a whole, so it’s not hard to see why the Rangers intend to promote him aggressively this season. With Pete Crow-Armstrong’s ranking, you can see why I haven’t given the Cubs much grief for not having re-signed Cody Bellinger; I think Belli is simply more valuable to other organizations.
The two outfielders with the best defensive numbers in the minors also both make the Top 100. The first one you probably know: Ceddanne Rafaela of the Boston Red Sox. His offense was decidedly meh during his call-up, but ZiPS still believes he’ll hit justtt enough to support a glove that it thinks is terrific. Only one outfielder had better defensive numbers than Rafaela via the method I use, and he’s a player you may not know as well: Jorge Barrosa of the Arizona Diamondbacks. ZiPS basically sees him as the next version of Kevin Kiermaier, though with a slightly different shape (more walks but less power). The projections for his peak come in the .260/.350/.370 range with top-notch defense. ZiPS isn’t exactly coming out of nowhere when appreciating his defense, as he’s a 55/60 present/future glove in our rankings and a 70 over at MLB Pipeline.
ZiPS Top 25 Pitcher Prospects – 2024
Rank
Player
Pos.
Overall ZiPS Rank
Organization
FanGraphs Rank
1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
P
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Unranked
2
Shōta Imanaga
P
5
Chicago Cubs
Unranked (45 FV)
3
Ricky Tiedemann
P
16
Toronto Blue Jays
28
4
Andrew Painter
P
19
Philadelphia Phillies
11
5
Paul Skenes
P
30
Pittsburgh Pirates
10
6
Kyle Harrison
P
31
San Francisco Giants
27
7
Noah Schultz
P
32
Chicago White Sox
35
8
AJ Smith-Shawver
P
35
Atlanta Braves
63
9
Owen Murphy
P
38
Atlanta Braves
Unranked
10
Yu-Min Lin
P
40
Arizona Diamondbacks
Unranked
11
Dylan Lesko
P
41
San Diego Padres
76
12
Cristian Mena
P
45
Arizona Diamondbacks
Unranked
13
Tink Hence
P
48
St. Louis Cardinals
79
14
Anthony Solometo
P
51
Pittsburgh Pirates
Unranked
15
Mitch Bratt
P
54
Texas Rangers
Unranked
16
Robby Snelling
P
58
San Diego Padres
Unranked
17
Michael Kennedy
P
62
Pittsburgh Pirates
Unranked
18
Hurston Waldrep
P
69
Atlanta Braves
85
19
Jackson Jobe
P
70
Detroit Tigers
16
20
Drew Thorpe
P
71
San Diego Padres
73
21
Tekoah Roby
P
73
St. Louis Cardinals
88
22
Rhett Lowder
P
74
Cincinnati Reds
44
23
Jordy Vargas
P
75
Colorado Rockies
Unranked
24
Dax Fulton
P
84
Miami Marlins
Unranked
25
Mick Abel
P
85
Philadelphia Phillies
22
There aren’t any real surprises here until you get to Owen Murphy at no. 38 a Braves first-rounder from 2022 who got a dynamite translation in ZiPS despite the relatively lackluster ERA. Really though, I just want him to pitch to Sean Murphy in the majors so I can make Murphy’s Law jokes and/or article titles. ZiPS doesn’t give Yu-Min Lin a huge ceiling and he certainly doesn’t have the big velocity, but it sees him as a relatively polished prospect who pitched very well at Double-A when you consider his age and the fact the Texas League was a high-offense league (5.23 runs per game) in 2023. Not to mention the fact that Amarillo’s Hodgetown, the only one word stadium I am aware of, was the biggest home run park in professional baseball last year.
Jackson Jobe had a good return in 2023, enough to place him high in the rankings, and ZiPS likes Drew Thorpe being included in the Padres trade. The love of Dylan Lesko — at least by a PC — is harder to grok, but ZiPS tends not to be quite as worried about walk rate in the low minors for a guy that whiffs a billion batters. There’s high variance here, but that’s enough to give him intriguing potential.
If you’re looking for reasons to be disappointed with how the White Sox are run these days, ZiPS is giving you a new one in the form of Cristian Mena. ZiPS already saw him as a legitimate starter in the majors in 2024, but the Sox traded him to Arizona for Dominic Fletcher. Fletcher hit well in his big league debut, but all the projection systems have him with a high-70s/low-80s wRC+, making him a prime fourth outfielder candidate. That has value, but less so for a rebuilding organization.
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