The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon.
Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.
Looking at the FanGraphs playoff odds Thursday and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%.
Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.
Baltimore Orioles
The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% Thursday, a difference of 24.7%.
Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive.
On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.
The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.