Image credit: © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Situation: The Reds have quickly developed one of the better minor-league systems in all of baseball. Thanks in large part to players like Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and others, things are looking very bright in Cincinnati.
The Major League team has also been better than expected… but not because of their pitching. The Reds currently rank 28th in ERA and 27th in WHIP. While Cincy is not a win-now team, they are exciting—and since the call-ups of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, have been yearning for an exciting pitching prospect to be talked about alongside EDLC and CES. Enter: Andrew Abbott.
Background: Drafted out of Virgina in the second round of the 2021 draft, Abbott always had appeal due to his nasty left-handed breaking stuff and ability to repeat his delivery pretty consistently. Now, Abbott’s four-seam fastball has also caused major issues for minor league hitters. A now potential plus pitch, Abbott has used that in tandem with his curveball/sweeper (and developing changeup) to strike out 90 batters in 54 innings over 10 starts between Double and Triple-A, along with a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.
Scouting Report: At 6-foot-0 and 192 pounds, Abbott is not the most intimidating presence on the mound—but once he starts his attack on hitters, he is as hard to figure out as any pitcher in Minor League Baseball.
It wasn’t always butterflies and rainbows for the lefty though. Early in his professional career, there were absolutely some struggles with command and the changeup (but the promise was always there as noted in our September 2022 report). While talked about then, Abbott’s ability to change levels with his breaking stuff and fastball was deadly for opposing hitters. The issue, however, was that he was unable to locate his fastball consistently leading to a 3.66 walk rate.
Well, things turned around quickly—and all of the things that made Abbott intriguing as a prospect have come to fruition. He still has his plus breaking stuff and now possesses an explosive plus-flashing 92-93 mph fastball that rises on hitters up in the zone. The changeup is still at best average and he has allowed 8 home runs in 38 ⅓ innings at Triple-A, but given his improvement in literally all other facets of his game—it is not impossible that Abbott’s hard work and deep understanding of pitching cause these issues to improve.
Immediate Big League Future: The moment has arrived. Abbott will make his debut on Monday night after the incredible start he has had to the 2023 Minor League season. What makes Abbott great is his ability to locate and mix his fastball and breaking stuff so well. However, the aforementioned rise of home runs allowed is a legitimate cause for concern. Abbott is good enough to succeed early, but the rare mistakes he has made against Triple-A hitters have led to long balls – and that will certainly be the case at the highest level if he can’t limit the uncommon but costly bad pitch. The southpaw is good enough to be an above average starter now, but that is only if he can keep the ball in the park. —Tyler Oringer
Fantasy Impact: Minor-league strikeout rates like Abbott’s are going to draw eyes and hype and FAAB dollars. It’s all understandable, of course. After 91 innings in Double-A last year, the Reds didn’t let him toil once he struck out more than 60% of the batters he faced. The pattern is the same after 11 far more human but still impressive starts at Triple-A, where he struck out 35% of hitters. Such gaudy numbers could support high walk rates that minor league pitchers often carry but Abbott’s been about average in that category, too. This sounds like a massive arm to grab and enjoy at a lower cost than bigger names that were promoted before him. He’ll be relevant in 12-teamers as a backend arm and more relevant the deeper your league is, but I’m reluctant to buy in all the way right now. His curveball will have to buoy his four-seamer and occasional changeup, and he’ll still call Great American Ballpark home. Young pitchers are here to teach us lessons as much as they’re here to learn them. —Tim Jackson
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