Members of the NextGen, or “Next Generation”, are running out of time to win a grand slam. After the repeated success of the big three, younger players were tipped to beat them at the major level, or at least claim a major, such as Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Taylor Fritz, Matteo Berrettini, Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev.
Only two have been able to do this. This is not meant to be critical of players who have not yet won a slam. The NextGen have achieved great success in the ATP circuit while continuing to inspire and entertain millions of fans worldwide.
But for most of these players, based on statistics, the chance of winning even just one slam is looking ever more unlikely.
Winning a Maiden Slam
Below are three tables with all first-time major winners since 2000 sorted by age, years after turning pro, and the total number of grand slams won.
Name
First Grand Slam
Age
Rafael Nadal
2005 Roland Garros
19
Leyton Hewitt
2001 US Open
19
Carlos Alcaraz
2022 US Open
19
Novak Djokovic
2008 Australian Open
20
Juan Martin del Potro
2009 US Open
20
Marat Safin
2000 US Open
20
Roger Federer
2003 Wimbledon
21
Andy Roddick
2003 US Open
21
Juan Carlos Ferrero
2003 Roland Garros
23
Andy Murray
2012 US Open
25
Gaston Gaudio
2004 Roland Garros
25
Daniil Medvedev
2021 US Open
25
Albert Costa
2002 Roland Garros
26
Thomas Johansson
2002 Australian Open
26
Marin Cilic
2014 US Open
26
Dominic Thiem
2020 US Open
27
Stan Wawrinka
2014 Australian Open
28
Goran Ivanisevic
2001 Wimbledon
29
Mean average = 23.28
Name
First Grand Slam
Years After Turning Pro
Leyton Hewitt
2001 US Open
3
Marat Safin
2000 US Open
3
Andy Roddick
2003 US Open
3
Rafael Nadal
2005 Roland Garros
4
Juan Martin del Potro
2009 US Open
4
Carlos Alcaraz
2022 US Open
5
Novak Djokovic
2008 Australian Open
5
Roger Federer
2003 Wimbledon
5
Juan Carlos Ferrero
2003 Roland Garros
5
Andy Murray
2012 US Open
7
Daniil Medvedev
2021 US Open
7
Gaston Gaudio
2004 Roland Garros
8
Thomas Johansson
2002 Australian Open
8
Albert Costa
2002 Roland Garros
9
Marin Cilic
2014 US Open
9
Dominic Thiem
2020 US Open
9
Stan Wawrinka
2014 Australian Open
12
Goran Ivanisevic
2001 Wimbledon
13
Mean Average: 6.61
Name
First Grand Slam
Years After Turning Pro
Leyton Hewitt
2001 US Open
3
Marat Safin
2000 US Open
3
Andy Roddick
2003 US Open
3
Rafael Nadal
2005 Roland Garros
4
Juan Martin del Potro
2009 US Open
4
Carlos Alcaraz
2022 US Open
5
Novak Djokovic
2008 Australian Open
5
Roger Federer
2003 Wimbledon
5
Juan Carlos Ferrero
2003 Roland Garros
5
Andy Murray
2012 US Open
7
Daniil Medvedev
2021 US Open
7
Gaston Gaudio
2004 Roland Garros
8
Thomas Johansson
2002 Australian Open
8
Albert Costa
2002 Roland Garros
9
Marin Cilic
2014 US Open
9
Dominic Thiem
2020 US Open
9
Stan Wawrinka
2014 Australian Open
12
Goran Ivanisevic
2001 Wimbledon
13
The first thing that struck me was the number of players who won their first major in the first part of their careers.
With a total data set of 18 entries, 12/18 or 66.67% were 25 or younger when they won their initial grand slam.
The second thing I noticed was how significant playing over nine years of professional tennis was, with just an 11.11% chance of winning a slam. Thirdly, remarkable success at the major level has only been achieved by players winning their first grand slam at 21 years old or younger and five years or less after turning pro (i.e. Federer, Nadal and Djokovic).
There are two limitations when drawing conclusions from the data above. The first is that the data set is partial, taking information from 2000 onwards. A broader source base could provide more reliable results to examine the progress (or lack thereof) from the NextGen.
However, it is also essential to compare players across time who all have an essentially “modern” tennis style. I would argue that by 2000, the modern baseline game is firmly established and is comparable enough, along with the evolution of rackets, to the playing styles and equipment of today and the near future.
The second limitation is that I’m assuming the past is a reliable indicator of the future. That is because players were more likely to win their first grand slam at a specific age range, and time after turning pro, the same range and time will apply now.
It is hypothetically possible that trends in the data above could be radically altered in the next 23 years, with maybe older and older winners of grand slams, with more time after turning pro becoming more common. Nevertheless, for reasons explored later, this is unlikely.
How does each of the NextGen Compare?
Medvedev and Thiem already appear on our lists above, so we can count them out, though they both feature in the bottom half of the data for age and time after turning pro. Broadly speaking, the older you are and the more time you’ve played on the tour (accounting for a minimum amount of professional experience), the less likely you are to win your first grand slam.
There are several reasons for this. Confidence can wain once players have appeared in grand slams several times but never featured in or won a final match. They may start to doubt their abilities to be Slam worthy or have the mental toughness to win the tournament.
Over time, a lack of grand slam success and time spent as a pro without big wins could translate into a mental block, especially if you’ve been touted as a future winner but failed to deliver on expectations.
Take the 2020 US Open final, where a tense Zverev lost despite being two sets up. He made 65 unforced errors and 15 double faults in the match against Thiem. Zverev also lead the tournament’s double faults with a colossal 64.
Declining physicality over time also plays a part. Good footwork and footspeed are needed to reach balls and transfer enough energy into shots. Older players naturally experience stiffness, pains and injuries, which can hamper performance or end their careers entirely. With the best-of-five set format, agile movement is vital to endure a series of potentially gruelling matches.
The older you are, having never won a grand slam, the greater chance your tennis career has already peaked around maybe a clutch of other minor titles but never having success at the major level. A player can have had the ability to win a big title, but once lost it, is unable to regain it.
One-slam wonders like Cilic, del Potro and Roddick show that some players are only given a small opening in their careers, and if they fail to translate that chance into victory, it can be lost forever.
Lastly, as more time passes without a major, the greater the chance you never had the talent anyway, and it was never going to happen. Other players were able to beat you on raw skill, mental fortitude, and physicality.
Name
Age
Years since turning pro
Alexander Zverev
26
10
Matteo Berrettini
27
8
Andrey Rublev
25
9
Taylor Fritz
25
8
Stefanos Tsitsipas
24
7
Based on the first two tables, Zverev and Berrettini are least likely to claim a major.
Zverev has a 33.33% chance based on age and an 11.11% chance based on time since turning pro.
Berrettini has a 16.67% chance based on age and a 38.89% based on pro time.
Rublev has a 50% chance based on age and a 27.78% chance based on pro time.
Fritz has a 50% chance based on age and a 38.89% chance based on pro time.
Tsitsipas has a 50% chance based on age and a 50% chance based on pro time and is most likely to claim a major.
Other indicators support this idea of the Greek’s immediate prospects – Tsitsipas is the only member to appear in more than one grand slam final and has the highest ranking of 5.
Except for Tsitsipas, the likelihood of the NextGen ever winning a grand slam is minimal and decreases yearly.
It is also doubtful that any of the remaining NextGen can win a slam and have significant success with multiple majors, as they are far beyond the age range and years since turning pro of the big three.
Interestingly Alcaraz fits right into that big three range, winning his first grand slam at the same age as Nadal and having the same number of years since turning pro as Djokovic and Federer.
Though young Alcaraz may be on the precipice of tennis greatness, the stats tell us that the NextGen’s window of opportunity is closing fast.
Do you think any of the remaining NextGen will win a slam? Who is most realistically likely to win more than one major? Leave your comments below.