About 12 hours after Bo Bichette left Monday night’s game with a right knee injury, the Blue Jays found his possible replacement, acquiring shortstop Paul DeJong and cash considerations from the Cardinals on Tuesday afternoon for minor league reliever Matt Svanson.
DeJong being relevant again might make you think that you’ve warped back to pre-2020 days, but hang on before you load up on masks and toilet paper; he’s actually had a nice little 2023 season. I don’t think anyone would argue with me if I said the Cardinals were having a season with a stunning lack of pleasant surprises, but DeJong’s year has been one of those rarities. While a triple-slash of .233/.297/.412 won’t get you to many All-Star Games, it’s a much prettier line than his .196/.280/.351 collapse from 2020 to ’22, reaching a nadir with a ’22 season in which DeJong needed a telescope just to see the Mendoza line. He still plays solid defense at shortstop, and his bat has rebounded enough that there’s once again a significant role for him on a major league roster. The only reason he was even in St. Louis this year was the six-year contract he signed before the 2018 season.
The #BlueJays are sending minor-league reliever Matt Svanson, 24, in return for Paul DeJong and cash considerations. DeJong, who’s in the final year of a six-year, $26 million contract, earns $9M this year with a $12.5M option or $2M buyout in 2024.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) August 1, 2023
While this piece has the “2023 trade deadline tag,” that’s actually kind of a lie; this is a regular ol’ injury replacement trade that just happened to coincide with the deadline. The full extent of Bichette’s injury probably won’t be known before the trade market closes up shop for the fall, so the Jays had to act quickly unless they wanted to try to replace him in-house. And while they had options in the organization, all of them had at least one seriously concerning issue. Santiago Espinal is more an emergency shortstop than a starter, and Cavan Biggio only has two professional innings at short. And neither is providing enough offense to make you want to take that defensive risk. In the minors, Addison Barger has suffered through elbow problems this season and isn’t a natural shortstop either, and Orelvis Martinez just debuted at Triple-A. Ernie Clement turning into a weird plate discipline deity is interesting, but more for a bad team in search of an upside play, not a team in a tight, crowded pennant race that needs some certainty.
ZiPS Projection – Paul DeJong
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
DR
WAR
RoS 2023
.220
.297
.433
141
19
31
6
0
8
21
13
45
2
100
2
0.9
2024
.221
.294
.421
399
53
88
17
0
21
62
36
127
5
96
6
2.2
2025
.220
.295
.420
381
51
84
16
0
20
57
35
122
4
97
5
2.0
ZiPS 2024 Projection Percentiles – Paul DeJong
Percentile
2B
HR
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
WAR
95%
26
33
.269
.338
.551
138
4.4
90%
24
30
.259
.329
.525
131
4.0
80%
21
27
.245
.316
.483
119
3.4
70%
20
25
.235
.307
.456
109
2.9
60%
18
22
.227
.301
.436
102
2.5
50%
17
21
.221
.294
.421
96
2.2
40%
16
19
.214
.286
.403
91
1.9
30%
15
18
.205
.279
.386
84
1.5
20%
13
16
.195
.271
.367
78
1.1
10%
11
13
.181
.256
.340
65
0.5
5%
10
11
.171
.244
.322
60
0.1
DeJong’s options are now a little more complicated. At $12.5 million and $15 million, I imagine the Cardinals would have declined them as they did with Kolten Wong after a solid 2020 season. He has a $2 million buyout for 2024, and there may be a scenario in which the Jays pick it up if Bichette’s injury turns out to be fairly serious one. Is $10.5 million (since $2 million is baked into the cake either way) minus whatever the Cardinals are sending with him not worth it for them to keep DeJong as the starting shortstop for an undetermined part of next season before making him a utility infielder?
There was no reason to expect the Cardinals to get a haul of prospects for DeJong. Svanson is having a bit of a breakout season in the minors as a reliever, but you can’t ignore the fact that it’s as a 24-year-old in High-A ball. My colleague Eric Longenhagen has his two-seamer at 92–94 mph and his slider at 84, and that he would be an honorable mention in the Jays prospect list but would not make the main rankings. ZiPS turns Svanson’s 1.23 ERA/2.55 FIP into a 4.30 ERA translation with the Cardinals in 2023 because, well, 24-year-old in High-A ball. But if he advances quickly — and he will need to in order to have any kind of career in the majors — he could show up at the back of the big league bullpen.
Toronto would much prefer that Bichette’s knee is a minor issue that resolves quickly, but they’ve rightly formulated a solid Plan B here. There’s literally no time like the present.