The AL East may be the toughest division in the Majors.
Four teams have a legitimate chance at a playoff berth, with FanGraphs projecting each of the top four teams to have no less than a 48% chance of reaching the postseason – a mark no other division can approach. Even the last-place team in their projections has a 25.8% chance at a spot in the playoffs. That just makes any prediction all the more difficult.
Let’s take a look at the AL East and predict how the division will shake out.
1. New York Yankees (82-80, 4th in AL East in 2023)
The Yankees had one of their better offseasons in recent history. Adding left fielder Juan Soto alone would be a coup for any team looking to win a title, but the Yankees were able to entirely remake their outfield during this winter. Outfielder Trent Grisham (acquired as part of the Soto deal) and right fielder Alex Verdugo provide the Yankees with far more depth than they have had in recent years. Starting pitcher Marcus Stroman, meanwhile, adds another dependable starter to the rotation. The Yankees have questions, especially with starters Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes, but they have improved enough to be favorites in the division.
2. Baltimore Orioles (101-61, 1st in AL East in 2023)
The Orioles would have been the favorites for the division until a brutal series of injuries hit their rotation. Corbin Burnes was acquired to be the top of the rotation arm they needed, but the Orioles also lost starters Kyle Bradish to a sprained UCL and John Means is a month behind in his throwing program. Bradish is attempting to use rest and rehab to return this year and is currently throwing pain-free from flat ground, but still has a long way to go. Closer Felix Bautista was lost for the year due to Tommy John surgery and was replaced by Craig Kimbrel, a drastic downgrade in the ninth inning. The lineup is good enough to make up for those losses and the Orioles should be a playoff team, but a step back is to be expected.