FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
1
Yoán Moncada
INF
CHW
21.7
14.4
83
70
50
I had a scout I trust warn me that Moncada wasn’t a do-everything player and that ranking him this high was foolish. That turned out to be true (though that scout also thought Cristian Pache was going to be God-like), and Moncada has been a frustrating paragon of inconsistency since his debut. Most of Moncada’s output is tied up in his two big seasons in 2019 and 2021. He’s had strikeout problems and has only exceeded 20 homers once. He did do well enough that I won my podcast bet with Carson Cistulli that Moncada’s best year would exceed Gavin Cecchini’s career WAR, but I was so fixated on everything but his hit tool that I (and everyone but Keith, basically) over-projected him.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
2
Andrew Benintendi
OF
BOS
22.6
13
100
65
50
Benintendi was high on everyone’s list largely because he was such a high-floored prospect, and indeed he became quite a good player very quickly. As a group we maybe should have cared more about his lack of size and strength, which capped his ceiling below that of the Devers and Bellinger types. This is an athlete whose physical peak came at age 23, and who has only had one above-average season since then, producing more like an average regular during the evaluation window.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
3
Amed Rosario
SS
NYM
21.2
7.6
193
65
45
Rosario’s reckless approach undermined his fantastic natural feel to hit and held his offensive performance in the average-to-below range during his pre-free agency window. Unlike a lot of players from the 2017 rookie class, Rosario never had that huge season or two that would have made up for his couple of lackluster campaigns, including his 2023 walk year. He also isn’t an especially good defensive shortstop. Though I nailed his hit tool projection, I underrated the impact of Rosario’s free-swinging approach and over-projected his defense.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
4
Dansby Swanson
SS
ATL
23.0
21.2
38
65
60
Tracking more like a 45- or 50-grade player until the shortened 2020 season, Swanson’s power leveled up in his late 20s, culminating in a monster contract year with the Braves in 2022. He didn’t quite hit the FV projected of him (had he hit for more power earlier in his career, like Matt Chapman, he would have), but he still became a star.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
10
Anderson Espinoza
RHP
SDP
18.9
0
DNQ
60
35+
Right after this list was published, Espinoza suffered a rare series of injuries that prevented him from pitching again until 2021. He was probably over-projected independent of injury, and I can’t say I’d rank an A-ball arm this high again in part because Espinoza helped me learn my lesson. At the time (I was at Espinoza’s last spring outing before he started getting hurt over and over), he was showing three plus pitches and I was projecting that his command would improve enough for him to be an impact starter. His arm strength has been more average of late and his command never really arrived.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
11
Ozzie Albies
2B
ATL
20.1
18.9
47
60
60
This one was a bullseye, and Albies might have been one of the five most productive player from this rookie class had he had a healthy 2022. The way he did it was different than I projected, as I had a contact-oriented profile forecast for him.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
12
Yadier Álvarez
RHP
LAD
20.9
0
DNQ
60
Bust
My very first day as a full-time baseball writer was spent at Camelback Ranch watching Reds and Dodgers prospects in extended spring training. That was the first time I saw Álvarez in person, and it was incredible. He was loose and fluid, incredibly projectable, and already sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s at 20 years old. He was much more talented and projectable than the typical college pitcher going near the top of the draft, and I lost my mind. I was not alone, as I became aware that there were several high-ranking executives who, either just before or just after he signed, had top-of-the-scale grades and projections on Yadi. The cracks in his command didn’t begin to show until the back half of 2017, after which cracks also showed in Álvarez’s coachability, to the point that the Dodgers had to discipline him. He barely pitched in the 2019-2021 window, elected free agency after the 2022 season and hasn’t been signed.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
13
Cody Bellinger
1B
LAD
21.6
21.7
37
60
60
With more than a third of his career output tied up in his incredible 2019 season, Bellinger was tracking like a 70 before he hurt his shoulder celebrating during Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS. Billed as a prospect with hit tool risk, Bellinger’s huge breakout came when he cut his K% into the teens. His career K% is close to the big league average, while Bellinger has gotten to all of the power and been every bit as great a defender as was projected. After two years of dour performance, he bounced back and made his prospect projection accurate with his big 2023.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
18
Francis Martes
RHP
HOU
21.2
0.2
DNQ
60
Bust
In 2014, Houston traded Jarred Cosart, Enrique Hernández and Austin Wates to Miami for Martes, Colin Moran, and Jake Marisnick. Martes had a 2.73 FIP in a full season at Triple-A the year prior to this prospect ranking and looked like a slam dunk star. He struggled with walks but struck out nearly 40% of opposing hitters his rookie season. He had TJ the following year, then had a PED suspension in each of the next two years. He was released in 2021 and has been pitching in foreign leagues since then.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
19
Lucas Giolito
RHP
CHW
22.5
14
48
60
50
Giolito had two or three seasons where he peaked as the Guy who everyone though he’d be, but it took a mechanical overhaul and the introduction of two new pitches for him to do it, including the changeup that would become his best offering by far. We have to take Giolito’s early-career, replacement-level struggles into account as we assess him here, as well as the little dip he’s experienced of late. He provides a great teaching moment in fastball/breaking ball interplay and utility, because his curveball was so big and cartoonishly loopy that big league hitters had no trouble identifying the pitch that had made so many high school and minor league hitters look like dorks.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
20
Corey Ray
OF
MIL
22.4
0
DNQ
60
Org
I considered Ray to be the best prospect in the 2016 draft and for a minute, that felt correct. In 2017, Ray hit 34 homers and stole 61 bases while mostly playing at Double-A. He was striking out 30% of the time, however, and that should have been a clue that his hit tool was suspect enough to make his big league forecast feel precarious. There was a huge learning opportunity for me here regarding bat path. Ray’s swing was so long that he was constantly swinging underneath fastballs in the up-and-away portion of the strike zone. Righty fastballs often finish in that location, and if you’re a left-handed hitter with this particular hole in your swing, it tends to be a bad thing.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
22
Rafael Devers
3B
BOS
20.3
21.2
38
55
60
Three of Devers’ first four seasons were impressive for his age but only fairly productive compared to the rest of the league. As he’s become slightly more selective during the last few seasons, he’s leapt into a different stratosphere. Because he’s younger than a lot of other players from this class, Devers is more likely to continue to be a great player than guys whose decline phases are theoretically looming. But during his six-year window prior to free agency, he was a 60-grade player overall.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
23
Manuel Margot
CF
SDP
22.3
9.7
152
55
45
Signed by Boston during the Obama administration, Margot turned out to be the best player San Diego got back in the 2015 Craig Kimbrel trade. He was evaluated as a do-it-all center fielder at this stage in his prospectdom, and while Margot has been a damn good big leaguer at times, he never developed the power required to match my projection for him and became a quintessential 45-grade player. Injuries have also been a consistent part of Margot’s career. After parts of four seasons in San Diego, he was traded to Tampa Bay for Emilio Pagán, and thereafter tended to platoon with guys like Josh Lowe and Kevin Kiermaier. He’s a career .255/.309/.385 hitter overall, but has been a .281/.341/.420 hitter against lefties and played plus defense at all three outfield positions, a contender’s part-time outfielder.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
26
Tyler Glasnow
RHP
PIT
23.4
9.8
104
55
55
Injuries and inefficiency (especially early in his big league tenure) have marred Glasnow’s career to this point, and illustrate why pitchers tend to be ranked lower and more scarcely than hitters on Top 100 lists. On talent, Glasnow is a top 5-10 player from this rookie class, clearly, but fate has struck a cruel blow to his output and pitchers are more vulnerable to this kind of injury chaos. On actual production, he was not quite a 50. I think it’s fine to call this a collective “hit” for the group even though there’s a gap between our rankings and Glasnow’s production. His ability is undeniably special; he was properly evaluated. I’m not going to sit here and say the Pirates won the Chris Archer trade, but if part of the reason they parted with Glasnow, Shane Baz, and Austin Meadows was because they feared all three would have trouble staying healthy and productive, they were right about that part.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
28
Reynaldo López
RHP
CHW
23.1
9
112
55
45
Signed by Washington, López was a Top 100 prospect when he was dealt as part of the Adam Eaton trade that helped push the 2019 Nationals across the finish line to immortality. The White Sox started López until his options ran out; in the two and a half seasons in which he’s been a full-time reliever, his fastball velocity has leapt and he’s become one of the steadier and more durable setup men in baseball. The two seasons in which López worked over 180 innings are carrying nearly half his WAR total (and he had an ERA over 5.00 in one of them).
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
29
Jay Groome
LHP
BOS
18.4
0
DNQ
55
35+
At this point in my tenure at the site, I failed to appreciate how much time and risk should factor into the way these players are valued. Groome was an undeniably great talent in high school but every teenage pitcher is playing Russian Roulette with their ligaments every season for five years on their way to the big leagues, and Groome’s life was more complicated and volatile at home than I knew about. He was on San Diego’s 40-man last year and got roughed up at Triple-A.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
31
Riley Pint
RHP
COL
19.2
0
DNQ
55
35+
Pint’s fastball shape was always going to cause it to play down a bit, but it’s still surprising that he’s only managed to pitch a third of a big league inning so far during his career given his combination of elite arm strength and breaking ball quality. There are people around baseball who think Pint would have turned out much better than this had he been developed by an org with a better track record of helping pitchers.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
33
Delvin Pérez
SS
STL
18.2
0
DNQ
55
Org
Pérez looked like a potential five-tool shortstop in high school, but he failed a PED test prior to the draft and has never shown his pre-draft power in pro ball. He has kicked around the upper minors the last several seasons because of his defensive ability. I don’t think I’d totally move off of a similar high school player who tested positive today, but I certainly wouldn’t rank him 33rd overall.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
34
Clint Frazier
OF
NYY
22.4
-0.7
DNQ
55
35+
Monster bat speed wasn’t enough to make Frazier a successful big leaguer, and he has hopped around a couple different rosters during the back half of his evaluation window. In his best couple of seasons, Frazier hit for power in line with his projections, but his hit tool turned out to be more of a 30 than a 50. How were we all fooled so badly? The intoxicating smell of Frazier’s draft status definitely biased me for longer than was ideal, and he only K’d at a 21-22% clip in the several seasons leading up to his big league debut. Perhaps this is not the type of athlete we should be putting premium grades on; Frazier was more of a tightly wound, overly muscular stiff guy. He also is rumored to have struggled to fit into that Yankees clubhouse.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
39
Robert Gsellman
RHP
NYM
23.5
2.3
276
55
40
When is an uptick in a player’s performance going to regress to their mean, and when is it actual development? Gsellman looked great in 2016, when he was throwing harder than ever before as a starter and pitched so well in the big leagues that he was one out away from losing rookie eligibility. His fastball lost a tick the next season and it wasn’t long before Gsellman was shifted into lower-leverage multi-inning relief.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
40
Blake Rutherford
OF
NYY
19.7
0
DNQ
55
Org
Rutherford was an old-for-the-class high school prospect who got famous as an underclassman. His career is a lesson in adjusting draft evaluations due to age, and his low-ball swing was not built to hit for power in other parts of the zone.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
45
Bradley Zimmer
CF
CLE
24.2
2.9
DNQ
55
35+
Zimmer’s speed and ability to play a passable center field kept him gainfully employed for a half decade while he struck out 35% of the time, far too much for him to get to his raw power and claim a stable role.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
47
Jeff Hoffman
RHP
COL
24.1
2.4
272
55
40
Hoffman was a top five draft prospect at East Carolina until he blew out during his draft year. His style of pitching was ill-suited for Colorado and he struggled badly there for years before finding some stability in Cincinnati, especially after he was moved to the bullpen. In 2023, he had a three-tick velo spike in Philly and pitched like a good setup man, but throughout his pre-free agency years he was more like a fifth starter or low-leverage middle reliever.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
48
Kevin Maitan
3B
ATL
17.0
0
DNQ
55
Org
I saw Maitan in Florida the fall before this Top 100 list came out, and he was already noticeably heavier than he was as an amateur. There are scouts who always considered Maitan to be overrated, who hated his swing from the start and thought he wouldn’t hit. After he was made a free agent as part of Atlanta’s bonus packaging scandal, he got another multi-million dollar bonus from the Angels, and his issues continued to worsen in their org.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
50
Josh Bell
1B
PIT
24.5
8.7
172
55
45
Bell set a record for a second round bonus amount ($5 million) when the Pirates drafted him. He’s performed almost exactly as he was projected on offense but has fallen short from a WAR value standpoint. He’s a career .260/.347/.453 hitter who has played at least 143 games in each of the last six full seasons, and he’s hit at least 20 homers four times. Aside from the pandemic season, Bell has been an above-average offensive performer and has a career 114 wRC+, with strikeout, walk and SLG output in line with his scouting projections. But Bell’s terrible first base defense and the positional adjustment in WAR drags him way, way down to just under 9 WAR for his career. Bell has the seventh-lowest defensive adjustment in baseball since 2016, but he’s 37th in adjusted runs created during that span. Is our positional adjustment being too harsh on him? It feels like one of the best 50 hitters of the last seven years should feel good to have had on a Top 100 list, but Bell is a really terrible defender and there have been enough first baseman who’ve comfortably outslugged him since he debuted to consider him a little shy of average at the position.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
51
Ian Happ
2B
CHC
22.5
14.2
87
55
50
Happ was tracking like a 45-grade player until the 2022 season, when he cut his strikeout rate and had two 60-grade seasons at the end of his evaluation window even though he transitioned to left field full-time during that span. Happ was not a very good second base or center field defender, and I slightly over-projected his second base defense, which is the biggest reason for the glancing blow level of accuracy here. I think he was “ranked” in the correct spot, but his FV grade was a little too heavy because my premium FV tiers ran too deep at this time.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
52
Germán Márquez
RHP
COL
21.9
17.4
29
55
55
Another hit, Márquez was actually tracking better than this before he ended his evaluation window with a mediocre 2022 and an injured 2023. Incredibly athletic despite his thicker build, Márquez was among the most productive hitting pitchers in baseball while NL hurlers were still tasked with swinging a bat. The Rockies stole him from Tampa Bay in a deal for Corey Dickerson.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
59
Josh Hader
LHP
MIL
22.8
11.3
79
55
55
This is where using WAR as the guideline for assessing players in this way gets tricky. Hader has been one of the more dominant relievers in baseball for the last several years and all of us would rank him well above where he slots if we’re just looking at WAR. I’ve made a manual adjustment to his actual performance grade to reflect common sense. Ideally prospects like this (Kyle Harrison and Ricky Tiedemann are good 2024 examples) would be ranked near the back of my 55 FV tier, guys who might have relief risk but are nasty enough to be elite closers if they can’t start. I think it’s reasonable to prefer to have Hader’s career so far over those of Moncada, Happ, Montgomery, and probably even Márquez, but once we get up to Albies and the guys above him, it’s a little too rich. That 55 FV area feels like it was right.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
61
Aaron Judge
RF
NYY
24.8
41.4
6
55
70
The apex player from this class, Judge generally occupied a spot in the middle third of our collective lists due to concerns about his strikeouts. He struck out at a 44% clip (!) during his September call-up prior to this offseason’s evaluation. Still, Judge had unique size, power, and athleticism, and his theoretical ceiling alone probably should have weighed heavier in the way he was pref’d at the time. Judge has routinely produced like a 70-grade player. He has two historic seasons (his rookie year and 2022) under his belt and probably would have had more if not for injuries, which have cost him 50 games or so in two of his last four seasons.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
64
Yohander Méndez
LHP
TEX
22.0
0
DNQ
55
35+
Méndez’s fastball velo from 2016 never really showed up again, as he sat mostly 92-93 mph in his 47 total big league innings. The injuries stacked up, and Méndez was also subject a team-imposed suspension at one point for seeking medical treatment outside the org.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
65
Amir Garrett
LHP
CIN
24.7
0.3
316
55
40
What happened here? Garrett was moved to the bullpen after his rookie year and had three great seasons in relief before his command collapsed after the 2020 campaign. He basically had no shot of being a 55 as soon as he was ‘penned, but it looked like he’d be a nasty enough reliever to maybe be a 50. Instead, his final three years of the evaluation window were bad enough to dilute his performance into this range.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
70
Luiz Gohara
LHP
ATL
20.5
0
DNQ
55
Bust
A lefty leviathan with, at the time, the hardest fastball of any starter in pro baseball, Gohara was jettisoned from Seattle along with several other talented players who had worn out their welcome through a perceived lack of effort. He pitched very well for the Braves in 2017, but his career came to an abrupt end after just shy of 50 career innings in part due to a shoulder injury that caused his comeback attempt with the Angels in 2020 to stall.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
71
Jharel Cotton
RHP
OAK
25.0
0.7
DNQ
55
35+
I underappreciated the ways in which Cotton’s fastball was not going to play against big league hitters. He was shelled in his one full season as a starter, then quickly ‘penned and didn’t have the velo spike he would have needed to stick around. He was an up/down bulk reliever who is now playing in Japan.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
72
Matt Strahm
LHP
KCR
25.2
5.2
181
55
40+
Projected as a mid-rotation starter, Strahm was never really given an opportunity to start by the Royals, and it wasn’t until his fourth big league season that the Padres gave it a try for a couple of months. Strahm thrived in a swingman role with Philadelphia in 2023, the best season of his career, but has mostly been a solid lefty middle reliever to this point.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
73
Dominic Smith
1B
NYM
21.6
-0.5
444
50
35+
Aside from his white hot run in 2020, Smith has simply never had enough in-game power output to be considered a good everyday first baseman. His relatively low walk rates in the minors should have also been a sign that he wouldn’t clear the offensive bar at first base.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
75
Hunter Renfroe
OF
SDP
25.0
9.9
148
50
45
Does Renfroe feel a little undervalued by WAR? He’s among the top 30 home run hitters in baseball since he debuted and his all-world arm changes the way runners make decisions on the basepaths in ways I don’t think are properly captured in his data. Then again, he is a low-OBP corner guy, reaching base at a .300 clip. Ideally this is a player for whom you have a lefty-hitting partner on your roster, which I think makes my forecast a little too bullish.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
90
Raimel Tapia
CF
COL
23.0
1.4
410
50
40
Tapia was written up as a 60-hit/40-power center fielder but has performed like a 60-hit/30-power left fielder.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
101
Franklin Pérez
RHP
HOU
19.2
0
DNQ
50
Injuries
Pérez dealt with severe injury perhaps more than any other prospect since I’ve started doing this job.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
101
Sean Newcomb
LHP
ATL
23.6
2.9
253
50
35+
Young Nuke had command-driven relief risk but managed a strong first couple of big league seasons as a starter despite his poor command. The Braves decided to shift him into the bullpen in 2019, and Newcomb has remained a reliever while bouncing around to a few clubs (Cubs, Giants, A’s) the last several seasons. After a promising start, he has been more of an up/down reliever.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
101
Matt Chapman
3B
OAK
23.8
27.3
23
50
65
Another player whose minor league strikeout issues drastically altered his standing as a prospect, Chapman struck out at a 30% or greater clip as soon as he reached Double-A. In a sense, the concerns about his hit tool have been correct, and Chapman has run hot and cold for most of the last four seasons. But his elite defense and ability to get to his power have driven star-level production, especially during his first few campaigns. He’s performed like a 65-grade player, not quite consistent enough to be a true 70. He was under-ranked pretty badly on everyone’s lists.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
101
Kyle Freeland
LHP
COL
23.7
12.4
64
50
50
Freeland had one huge 200-inning, 4-WAR season but has otherwise been a low-K backend starter with a 4.60 career FIP. From a WAR standpoint I hit on this projection, but if you wanted to argue that on talent Freeland is more like a no. 4/5 innings- eater than the mid-rotation types I try to rank on the 100, you probably could. He’s done this well in half a decade of pitching at Coors Field, so let’s give him the benefit of the doubt.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
101
Jeimer Candelario
1B
CHC
23.2
11.5
118
50
50
A somewhat inconsistent year-to-year performer, Candy’s huge walk year propelled his overall performance into 50-grade range. He’s now a .243/.325/.414 career hitter and has stayed at third base for longer than my graduation time scouting report anticipated. During Top 100 work every year, I have a “Stable Bat-Only” cluster of players who get compared to one another as the list gets made. Candy is a quintessential example of this archetype and a great barometer for what the bottom of that group should look like.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
101
Frankie Montas
RHP
OAK
23.9
9.6
106
50
50
Remember that Frankie had a ton of relief risk as a prospect and it took him the better part of three big league seasons before he found his footing as a starter. Signed by Boston, he was traded to the White Sox as part of a package for Jake Peavy, then was sent to the Dodgers as part of a three-team swap centered around Todd Frazier, and then to Oakland with others for Josh Reddick and Rich Hill; he was eventually flipped to the Yankees at the 2022 deadline. Montas broke out at age 26 when he started throwing a splitter. He had three seasons as a dynamite mid-rotation type, though only two seasons with more than 100 innings pitched during his pre-free agency window, with some time lost to injury and some to a PED suspension. He produced right on the cusp of the 50 FV level in spite of persistent injury.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
101
Luke Weaver
RHP
STL
23.4
6.9
143
50
40
Weaver was tracking like a 45 in his first three big league seasons, but he struggled to stay healthy after Arizona acquired him in the Paul Goldschmidt trade and hasn’t crested 1.0 WAR in a single season since 2019. He struggled to find a good breaking ball and ended up pitching like a backend starter.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
101
David Paulino
RHP
HOU
23.0
0.1
DNQ
50
35+
Paulino had wrapped a season with 1.83 ERA at Double-A Corpus Christi prior to his ranking here. His 90 IP that year were by far the most he’s had in a single season of his career. He tested positive for PEDs in 2017 and has barely pitched in the big leagues since.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
101
Tyler Jay
LHP
MIN
22.8
0
DNQ
50
Injuries
Jay dealt with many injuries and at a certain point his peak stuff never returned. After not pitching since 2019, he made a comeback with the Mets Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse late last year. He was only sitting 90-91 mph, but his slider is still pretty nasty.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
101
Oscar De La Cruz
RHP
CHC
21.9
0
DNQ
50
Injuries
…And a PED suspension
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Luis Castillo
RHP
CIN
24.1
21.7
12
45
60
This was a weird one. Castillo entered 2017 having made just three starts above A-ball, and he K’d just shy of 6.5 per 9 IP with the Marlins High-A affiliate throughout his time there in 2015 and 2016. At the time, it was very difficult to have a truly thorough understanding of mid-minors players who I hadn’t personally seen; as my ability to access video and source data and the thoughts of scouts has improved since 2017, I like to think I wouldn’t have under-projected Castillo’s changeup quality or command quite so badly if I had it to do today. I can see why his delivery made me think he had relief risk, but his command should have trumped that, and baseball has a better understanding now of the advantages lower-release pitchers like this have when it comes to missing bats at the top of the zone. Castillo has evolved and his slider usage now outpaces his changeup, which hasn’t missed bats nearly as often as it did during the early portion of his career.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Sam Travis
1B
BOS
23.4
-1.1
DNQ
45
Org
Travis simply didn’t have the physical tools to bang at anything close to the level of an average first baseman.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Robert Stephenson
RHP
CIN
23.9
2.1
279
45
40
The Reds shifted Stephenson into the bullpen half way through his rookie year and he struggled to find his footing until 2019. He’s been passed around the fringe of several rosters during the last few years, pitching especially well starting with when the Pirates pulled him off the scrap heap in 2022. In all, he’s performed like a pretty typical fastball/slider middle reliever.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Matt Olson
1B
OAK
22.8
24.6
27
40
65
Yikes. Olson ended up having so much power that he’s third among first basemen in WAR since 2017. His blurb from the time overstates how bad the strikeout issues were in the minors. Upon reflection, this feels like I was looking for data to confirm apprehension I had about Olson’s unique swing, which not only turned out to be fine but is being copied by some other young hitters. Olson’s power makes every swing he takes a dangerous one, and he’s been awesome despite having one of the lower contact rates among first basemen. This is one of my all-time biggest misses and a rough unilateral whiff for the group. I only remember one person stumping for Olson at this time and it was former managing editor Dave Cameron.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Brandon Nimmo
CF
NYM
23.8
22
35
45
60
Aside from a 2018 season in which he showed an unusual amount of pop (owing perhaps to the juiced ball), Nimmo was tracking more like a 45-grade player until he cut his strikeout rate starting in 2020. He had three big-time seasons (four if you prorate his 2020 across an entire campaign) at the end of the evaluation window, as he traded OBP for power while remaining an average center field defender. I had a fourth outfielder grade on Nimmo and he turned into a star. I find some solace in knowing that it took a pretty significant mid-window adjustment for Nimmo to make a leap; my evaluation of his ability at the time was sound, but he changed in ways I didn’t anticipate. He’s a good reminder that prospects who play viable defense at a premium position, and who have a core offensive competency (in this case, on-base ability), tend to pan out.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Jordan Montgomery
SP
NYY
24.1
14.1
46
45
50
This one seemed like it was going to be a bullseye until Montgomery’s huge 2023. Injuries stymied his early-career output, but he was a very efficient innings-eating force for the last three seasons of his evaluation window, during which he began to throw harder even as his body seemingly backed up. My tool and pitch grades were too tightly clustered around 50 at this time, and with a more accurate evaluation of Montgomery’s stuff for the last half decade — 40-grade fastball, plus command of a plus changeup and plus curveball — I probably would have 50’d him.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Yandy Díaz
3B
CLE
25.5
12.8
103
45
50
Until the last two seasons Yandy was performing in lockstep with my forecast from a value standpoint, but not really from a scouting point of view. I loved Díaz’s contact and OBP ability as a prospect, but I also thought the then-shortstop would be a great defensive third baseman. Instead, Díaz got super buff and transitioned from bad third baseman to fine first baseman. He’s performed like a nearly elite offensive player each of the past two seasons as he’s finally gotten to more of his power in games.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Teoscar Hernández
OF
TOR
24.3
12.6
106
45
50
Part of why Hernández wasn’t on the Top 100 was because he was such a bad defensive outfielder. The Astros traded him to Toronto in the middle of his 2017 graduation year as part of a package for Francisco Liriano. Hernández has performed like a 45-grade player with a monster three-year peak (when you prorate 2020) in the middle of his pre-free agency tenure. Remember when the Blue Jays played him in center field for half of the 2019 season? Teo’s plus-plus power helped him overcome 30-grade plate discipline and a below-average hit tool. He’s a great teaching case for guys like Tyler Soderstrom and Triston Casas: When there’s this much power, be patient.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Rhys Hoskins
1B
PHI
23.9
11.6
117
45
50
When you prorate his performance so Hoskins isn’t penalized for his 2023 injury, he performed like an exactly average first baseman during his Phillies tenure thanks to his special power and above-average plate discipline. I severely over-projected Hoskins’ defense, which is probably more like a 30 than the half-assed 45 I dropped on him at the time. As with Teoscar, there was enough power and big league proximity here to merit stuffing Hoskins in the middle of the Top 100 despite his other issues.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Mitch Haniger
RF
SEA
26.1
11.4
121
45
50
Another player whose injuries limited his WAR output during the last half decade, Haniger had two or three really huge seasons in spite of pretty substantial splits, which were chief among the reasons he was evaluated as more of a platoon outfielder when he was a prospect. He broke late and was undervalued because of his age.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Marco Gonzales
SP
SEA
25.0
10.2
93
40
45
A classic command-oriented lefty with a plus changeup, Marco had two seasons with plus, All-Star WAR output and might have had a third if not for the pandemic. In fact, Gonzales’ rate stats in his 11 2020 starts were pretty easily the best of his career. A lot of his WAR generation comes from volume (including a 200-inning 2019 season), while his ERAs and FIPs were in the mid-4.00s, more in line with a no. 4/5 starter. But his WAR total here was probably robbed of what would have been a career-best season, so I’ve put my thumb on the scale just a little bit.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Paul DeJong
SS
STL
23.5
9.4
155
45
45
DeJong was sent straight to Double-A in his first full pro season and slugged .532 as a rookie the following year. An aggressive approach caught up with him over time and he ended his evaluation window with a .229/.299/.417 line befitting a slugging second division shortstop. This was a hit.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Albert Almora Jr.
CF
CHC
22.8
2.1
387
45
40
Almora had one full season’s worth of above-average offensive performance at the very start of his big league career. After that, his hitting fell off enough to consider him a glove-first fifth outfielder rather than a complementary regular type of fourth outfielder like Manuel Margot.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Tyler Wade
UTIL
NYY
22.2
0.2
DNQ
45
40
I had Wade projected as a premium utility guy and while he certainly developed rare defensive versatility, I over-projected his hit and power tools, which are more like 40/20 than the 55/30 I assigned him. The difference is Wade has been more like a low-end utility guy, a sixth infielder and fifth outfielder in one.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Derek Fisher
OF
HOU
23.4
-0.4
DNQ
45
Org
Fisher had plus power and plus-plus speed, but he never developed feel to hit or enough feel for defense to play center field. The Blue Jays and Brewers gave him opportunities in his mid-20s to see if things would click, and they didn’t. I have a gap between Bradley Zimmer’s eval and Fisher’s even though they were similar offensive players because Zimmer’s center field defense gave him more roster utility.
FG Rank
Name
Pos
Org
2017 Age
Career WAR
WAR Rank
FV Grade
Actual Grade
NR
Nick Williams
OF
PHI
23.4
-0.4
DNQ
45
35+
Williams was traded from Texas to Philadelphia in the Cole Hamels deal (Hamels and Jake Diekman for Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jerad Eickhoff, Matt Harrison, Alec Asher and Jake Thompson. Not great!). He was a hyper-aggressive, sweet-swinging corner outfielder with big power and poor defense. After a couple of fair offensive seasons in Philly during which his overall WAR output was limited by his defense, Williams’ performance tanked and he had such a bad 2019 that it put his entire career WAR under water.