What’s gotten into the Central divisions? Often an afterthought behind the big market clubs on either coast, it’s the Central teams in both leagues that are providing the most surprising starts, and most entertaining baseball, so far this season.
This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.
To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.
First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.
Complete Power Rankings
Rank
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Δ
1
Braves
9-5
1599
1451
97.4%
1597
0
2
Yankees
12-4
1578
1510
89.2%
1578
1
3
Dodgers
11-7
1579
1511
94.4%
1577
-1
4
Brewers
10-4
1538
1523
45.8%
1538
3
5
Orioles
9-6
1531
1546
65.6%
1530
6
6
Rays
9-7
1528
1493
64.5%
1527
6
7
Cubs
9-6
1526
1501
45.7%
1525
-3
8
Guardians
10-5
1519
1588
32.4%
1519
0
9
Phillies
8-8
1520
1510
52.0%
1518
5
10
Padres
9-9
1520
1588
42.2%
1518
11
11
Pirates
11-5
1517
1528
34.4%
1518
-1
12
Astros
6-11
1518
1506
69.7%
1514
-7
13
Blue Jays
8-8
1512
1375
43.9%
1510
4
14
Twins
6-8
1509
1491
52.0%
1507
1
15
Diamondbacks
8-8
1508
1508
54.2%
1506
4
16
Red Sox
9-7
1504
1483
27.0%
1503
-7
17
Reds
9-6
1502
1370
31.3%
1502
5
18
Royals
10-6
1501
1495
31.9%
1501
6
19
Mets
7-8
1503
1509
29.6%
1501
6
20
Tigers
9-6
1499
1517
30.7%
1499
0
21
Cardinals
7-9
1501
1500
36.3%
1498
-8
22
Rangers
8-8
1498
1511
37.5%
1497
-16
23
Mariners
6-10
1494
1518
38.0%
1492
-7
24
Giants
6-10
1486
1521
33.1%
1484
-6
25
Angels
7-8
1476
1496
16.0%
1475
-2
26
Athletics
7-9
1446
1412
1.7%
1445
1
27
Marlins
3-13
1447
1594
3.5%
1444
-1
28
Nationals
6-9
1405
1439
0.1%
1405
0
29
Rockies
4-12
1370
1507
0.0%
1370
1
30
White Sox
2-13
1365
1497
0.0%
1364
-1
…
Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Braves
9-5
1599
1451
97.4%
1597
Yankees
12-4
1578
1510
89.2%
1578
Dodgers
11-7
1579
1511
94.4%
1577
A dramatic ninth-inning comeback victory on Sunday salvaged a pretty poor week for the Braves. They lost their series to the Mets earlier in the week and were a strike away from losing their weekend series to the Marlins before Marcell Ozuna blasted the go-ahead home run. But the losses on the field pale in comparison to the loss of Spencer Strider, who underwent an internal brace procedure on his injured elbow that will sideline him for the entire season.
It’s a good thing Mookie Betts is playing like an early MVP frontrunner, because the Dodgers’ already thin starting rotation has been hit with yet another injury. This time it’s Bobby Miller, who was placed on the IL with a shoulder injury, though it doesn’t sound too severe. Fortunately for the Dodgers, reinforcements are on the horizon, as they should be getting Walker Buehler back from his rehab assignment within a week or two.
Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Brewers
10-4
1538
1523
45.8%
1538
Orioles
9-6
1531
1546
65.6%
1530
Rays
9-7
1528
1493
64.5%
1527
Cubs
9-6
1526
1501
45.7%
1525
After a few weeks of additional minor league seasoning, the Orioles called up Jackson Holliday, the game’s top prospect, last Wednesday. His debut this season was inevitable, and it’s good that Baltimore recognized that their offense needed a boost sooner rather than later. It took him a while, but Holliday’s first big league hit sparked a rally that turned the tide in Sunday’s victory.
It’s still very early, but the most hotly contested division in baseball is the National League Central. The preseason projections didn’t have the Centrals’ five teams separated by all that much, and their respective ceilings weren’t thought to be all that high either. Well, after a few weeks of play, the Brewers hold the best record in the NL, the Pirates are hot on their heels, and the Cubs and Reds have looked solid as well. All four have won at least 60% of their games and boast a positive run differential — the NL Central is the only division with four teams that can claim both of those marks. Surprisingly, the Brewers is winning not by preventing runs, as has been their modus operandi in the recent past, but by leading the league in runs scored per game.
Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Guardians
10-5
1519
1588
32.4%
1519
Phillies
8-8
1520
1510
52.0%
1518
Padres
9-9
1520
1588
42.2%
1518
Pirates
11-5
1517
1528
34.4%
1518
Astros
6-11
1518
1506
69.7%
1514
Blue Jays
8-8
1512
1375
43.9%
1510
The Padres climbed back to .500 this week by winning their series against the Cubs and Dodgers. Because they’ve faced Los Angeles twice already this season, their “strength of schedule” — based on their average opponent Elo rank — is among the highest in baseball.
This past weekend’s series against the Rangers looks like it could be the early turning point for the Astros. They lost a slugfest on Friday, but scored seven runs in the seventh inning on Saturday to secure the win, and then blew out Texas on Sunday behind a pair of home runs from Jose Altuve. Justin Verlander is on the mend and could make his season debut this week, and it sounds like the Stros avoided the worst-case scenario with Framber Valdez’s elbow injury.
Tier 4 – The Melee
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Twins
6-8
1509
1491
52.0%
1507
Diamondbacks
8-8
1508
1508
54.2%
1506
Red Sox
9-7
1504
1483
27.0%
1503
Reds
9-6
1502
1370
31.3%
1502
Royals
10-6
1501
1495
31.9%
1501
Mets
7-8
1503
1509
29.6%
1501
Tigers
9-6
1499
1517
30.7%
1499
Cardinals
7-9
1501
1500
36.3%
1498
Rangers
8-8
1498
1511
37.5%
1497
Mariners
6-10
1494
1518
38.0%
1492
The Red Sox have cooled off after their excellent 7-3 west coast road trip to start the season. They were swept by the Orioles in their first home series early last week, though they managed a series win against the Angels over the weekend. A season-ending shoulder injury to Trevor Story and an elbow injury to Nick Pivetta have put a damper on Tyler O’Neill’s hot start and the better-than-expected starting rotation.
The Reds managed to keep pace in the NL Central with a sweep of the White Sox over the weekend, highlighted by a fantastic start from Nick Lodolo in his first appearance off the IL. Elly De La Cruz looks as electric as ever and Spencer Steer is proving that it doesn’t matter where he plays defense as long as he’s mashing.
The Royals cooled off a bit against the Mets over the weekend, but that came after they swept the Astros in three games at home earlier in the week. In that series, they outscored Houston by 20 runs. Of course, they followed up that offensive outburst by scoring just a single run in two of their games in New York, and Salvador Perez was forced to leave Sunday’s game with an injury, dousing their weekend with even more bad vibes.
Tier 5 – No Man’s Land
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Giants
6-10
1486
1521
33.1%
1484
Angels
7-8
1476
1496
16.0%
1475
The Jordan Hicks experiment seems to be working out so far. That’s good news for the Giants because Blake Snell has really struggled in his first two starts of the season. For those worrying about the reigning NL Cy Young winner, remember that he didn’t really pitch like an award-winner until mid-May last year. Jung Hoo Lee has been a little slow to acclimate to big league pitching, too. It all adds up to a team that just doesn’t seem like it’s firing on all cylinders yet.
Tier 6 – Hope Deferred
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Athletics
7-9
1446
1412
1.7%
1445
Marlins
3-13
1447
1594
3.5%
1444
Nationals
6-9
1405
1439
0.1%
1405
Rockies
4-12
1370
1507
0.0%
1370
White Sox
2-13
1365
1497
0.0%
1364
With Dylan Cease traded away, and Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez, and Yoán Moncada all injured, there are astonishingly few compelling reasons to watch the White Sox. I doubt there are many people excited by the idea of Gavin Sheets, cleanup hitter (no matter how good he has looked to start the season). At least Garrett Crochet’s transition to the starting rotation has been successful so far — he’s looked pretty electric in his four starts, with nearly eight strikeouts for every walk he’s allowed.