The AL Central is not a powerhouse of a division.
The Twins were the only team in 2023 to finish above .500 in the division. FanGraphs does not expect anything to change in 2024, projecting just one team to finish with a winning record. Once again, the first team to 81 wins could end up in the postseason.
This is not the same AL Central of last season. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported early in the offseason that the Twins would reduce payroll. Meanwhile, the Tigers young players could take another step forward and the Royals revamped their pitching staff. The Guardians are always dangerous.
While the AL Central may not be a powerhouse, the divisional crown could be determined in the final week of the season.
Here’s how we think the AL Central will shake out. (Last year’s record and standing are in parenthesis.)
1. Minnesota Twins (87-75, first)
The Twins offseason was more about which players left.
Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda left in free agency, leaving significant holes in the rotation. The Twins added pieces late, acquiring Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa to help the pitching staff. Carlos Santana signed a one-year deal and is the presumed starter at first due to his defensive acumen. Manuel Margot is a solid fourth outfielder and can step in should Byron Buxton be injured again.
The Twins are still a talented team but their margin for error is smaller than it has been in the past.
2. Detroit Tigers (78-84, second)
The Tigers were unexpectedly competitive in 2023 and may be poised to take another step forward in 2024.
They struck quickly during the offseason, acquiring Mark Canha from the Brewers for minor league reliever Blake Holub. As the Tigers were 11th in the AL with a .305 on-base percentage in 2023, Canha is the type of player the lineup needed. Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller will make the bullpen deeper while Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda improve the rotation.
If Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize can stay healthy, and the young position players take a step forward, the Tigers could be the surprise team of 2024.