For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Toronto Blue Jays.
Batters
None of the projections here will blow your socks off, but on the plus side, very few of them will get your socks wet (and then you’re walking around all day with your feet wet and clammy, and every time you step it makes a little squishing sound, and you think there’s a bit of dirt in there and you’d like to take off your shoes, but that’s why you’re not allowed in Kroger anymore, so you can’t). If social media is any indication, Matt Chapman might be underrated at this point. He was terrible in the second half, but I haven’t found that to be very predictive, and overall, he still gave the Blue Jays about four wins that they now have to replace. Right now, third base, along with left field and designated hitter, looks to be an amalgamation of role players, though I don’t expect that situation to persist through Opening Day, if for no other reason than active rosters aren’t large enough for Toronto to start the season with all three of those unwieldy chimeras.
Bo Bichette is terrific and the Jays ought to extend him soon, lest he take $300 million to go somewhere else in a few years. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still a bit of an enigma. Indeed, he has turned out to be one of the harder players to project, which I wouldn’t have expected when he was a prospect. His upside is still there, but you can’t get around the fact that he’s had one awesome season, one solid season, and a whole lot of meh. ZiPS still thinks he’ll be solid, but practically nothing between a one- and six-win season would surprise me at this point. The power numbers do suggest he should have hit for more thump in 2023 than he actually did.
Daulton Varsho’s fine, though probably not good enough to silence the second-guessing about the Gabriel Moreno trade. George Springer showed some significant signs of decline in 2023, a trend that is likely to continue as he turned 34 late in the season. ZiPS is optimistic about Davis Schneider being fine at second base, though the computer isn’t exactly banking on another 1.000 OPS (and neither should you).
Pitchers
With a couple obvious places to improve the offense, I would not be surprised to see the Blue Jays take a low-key approach when it comes to the rotation, or even stand pat. Hyun Jin Ryu is a free agent, but the Jays only had him for part of the season anyway, and the four healthy returning starters — Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Yusei Kikuchi — all have rather unsurprising projections. They could still trade him this offseason, but it’s probably too early to write off Alek Manoah. 2023 was an unforgettable season for the right-hander, in the sense that it would haunt your dreams no matter what ancient curse or potion you conjured to try to forget it, but the fact remains that he was really good in 2022, even when you adjust for some of the smoke and mirrors around his 2.24 ERA that year. Dependable pitchers are always hard to find and expensive to keep, and pretty much any pitcher who is only a year removed from relevance should have a lot of team interest as long as their arm is physically attached.
Outside of Jordan Romano, I’m not sure I’d call much of the bullpen exciting, but it is relatively deep — ZiPS goes seven or eight relievers until it gets to the below-average guys. Jays relievers were ninth in WAR in 2023 and sixth in FIP, but you rarely saw anyone talk about the solidity of the unit. Now, I suppose some of that is to be expected — from my unscientific survey, about 95% of fans think the primary reason their favorite team isn’t performing better is because the bullpen is the worst one ever put together. But in any case, Toronto’s is a rather stable group that doesn’t need a whole lot of tinkering this winter. Save that cash for Shohei Ohtani! Oh, wait, I’m an Orioles fan, so I’d prefer if the Jays did not do that. If you’re looking for a ZiPS Special in the reliever category, Connor Cooke, a fastball-slider reliever with a changeup-in-progress who struggled a bit in his brief Triple-A run but dominated in Double-A, may be the pick for you.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. The font size of the player names is roughly proportional to their projected depth chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Bo Bichette
R
26
SS
657
614
90
179
34
2
24
93
37
127
11
4
Matt Chapman
R
31
3B
579
501
75
120
28
2
25
71
66
164
3
2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
R
25
1B
659
583
89
162
30
1
31
100
66
97
5
2
Alejandro Kirk
R
25
C
449
395
43
104
19
0
12
50
46
49
0
1
Davis Schneider
R
25
2B
502
430
62
99
25
2
19
68
61
134
6
2
George Springer
R
34
RF
567
507
77
129
23
2
21
72
51
107
12
3
Danny Jansen
R
29
C
297
262
40
64
15
0
15
47
27
59
0
1
Daulton Varsho
L
27
LF
541
490
72
118
24
3
25
77
42
124
13
5
Kevin Kiermaier
L
34
CF
359
326
46
80
17
4
6
39
27
83
10
2
Spencer Horwitz
L
26
1B
507
443
56
113
28
1
9
58
55
93
4
2
Brandon Belt
L
36
1B
366
312
46
74
16
1
17
46
48
116
1
0
Ernie Clement
R
28
SS
361
333
42
90
18
2
6
40
19
34
5
2
Mason McCoy
R
29
SS
472
429
53
90
20
4
10
51
36
150
13
2
Santiago Espinal
R
29
2B
357
325
40
87
19
0
4
35
27
52
4
3
Rafael Lantigua
R
26
LF
528
467
68
113
30
1
8
55
53
116
14
7
Cavan Biggio
L
29
2B
368
315
51
71
16
1
9
37
46
96
5
1
Alan Roden
L
24
LF
516
451
70
114
23
1
6
61
46
76
12
3
Nathan Lukes
L
29
RF
355
325
42
86
21
1
5
41
24
60
4
2
Addison Barger
L
24
RF
480
434
57
104
25
1
14
60
39
120
4
3
Leo Jimenez
R
23
SS
384
336
50
79
15
2
5
46
29
78
4
2
Whit Merrifield
R
35
2B
556
512
66
129
26
1
10
64
34
92
21
6
Damiano Palmegiani
R
24
3B
536
475
58
101
26
1
17
70
46
163
3
1
Orelvis Martinez
R
22
SS
550
494
57
109
24
1
23
72
44
156
2
1
Tanner Morris
L
26
2B
420
368
42
87
15
1
5
39
45
92
1
1
Cam Eden
R
26
CF
422
378
49
81
16
1
5
45
29
127
29
3
Otto Lopez
R
25
SS
434
398
53
100
17
4
3
41
27
79
11
4
Devonte Brown
R
24
CF
405
355
47
72
15
1
12
47
43
140
10
1
Jamie Ritchie
R
31
C
261
228
33
54
9
1
1
23
29
52
1
1
Tyler Heineman
B
33
C
209
182
20
40
7
1
1
16
19
43
3
1
Michael Turconi
L
25
2B
424
370
53
82
17
3
7
42
46
106
3
1
Luis De Los Santos
R
26
3B
400
367
40
79
19
1
7
41
24
106
3
2
Rob Brantly
L
34
C
229
203
22
50
10
1
2
26
15
36
0
1
Cade Doughty
R
23
3B
414
378
48
80
15
0
13
55
24
145
2
2
Josh Kasevich
R
23
SS
372
339
39
85
15
0
2
33
25
48
5
2
Phil Clarke
L
26
C
308
272
35
63
12
0
4
31
26
55
2
1
Zac Cook
L
26
CF
300
261
37
48
12
1
8
42
16
127
8
2
Riley Tirotta
R
25
3B
353
314
35
64
13
3
7
35
32
122
6
4
Steward Berroa
B
25
CF
420
368
54
76
16
4
6
38
39
129
26
7
Stevie Berman
R
29
C
190
164
14
34
8
0
3
17
20
48
0
1
Max McDowell
R
30
C
265
229
23
44
8
0
2
26
23
76
1
1
Zach Britton
L
25
DH
271
232
31
47
13
1
5
30
32
89
3
1
LJ Talley
L
27
1B
341
308
33
69
12
2
6
32
29
78
4
1
Bryce Arnold
R
22
2B
155
138
17
30
8
0
2
13
15
38
2
1
Peyton Williams
L
23
1B
332
301
32
67
11
1
9
40
23
96
1
1
Garrett Spain
L
23
RF
361
331
34
66
16
2
7
37
25
119
3
3
Jeffrey Wehler
R
25
3B
208
187
21
38
7
3
4
24
19
68
6
5
Dylan Rock
R
25
LF
148
134
19
25
5
0
4
16
11
54
3
1
Alex De Jesus
R
22
3B
422
378
52
79
16
4
10
45
37
142
3
2
Karl Ellison
R
29
C
128
120
6
19
6
1
1
8
8
51
0
1
PK Morris
L
25
1B
329
289
30
54
13
1
6
30
34
117
1
1
Trevor Schwecke
R
26
RF
360
326
38
71
15
2
6
39
27
102
5
3
Gabriel Martinez
R
21
LF
454
426
53
102
18
1
10
49
23
91
1
1
Miguel Hiraldo
R
23
2B
412
383
40
81
19
2
8
43
22
138
11
4
Andres Sosa
R
26
C
263
225
26
47
15
0
2
29
22
68
2
1
Dasan Brown
R
22
CF
461
416
55
87
15
2
6
46
29
143
14
8
Blake Robertson
L
23
1B
359
325
39
68
12
1
6
37
29
116
1
1
Kekai Rios
R
27
C
210
193
16
37
7
0
3
18
13
70
0
1
Rainer Nunez
R
23
1B
484
455
47
104
18
1
11
52
24
135
0
1
Sebastian Espino
R
24
RF
303
283
27
52
13
2
6
29
14
138
2
2
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Bo Bichette
657
.292
.333
.471
122
.179
.335
-3
3.9
.345
120
Matt Chapman
579
.240
.333
.453
117
.214
.304
8
3.6
.339
83
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
659
.278
.357
.492
134
.214
.288
-3
3.0
.362
113
Alejandro Kirk
449
.263
.345
.403
109
.139
.275
6
2.9
.328
55
Davis Schneider
502
.230
.333
.430
111
.200
.289
6
2.9
.332
74
George Springer
567
.254
.328
.432
110
.178
.285
9
2.5
.329
97
Danny Jansen
297
.244
.327
.473
120
.229
.261
1
2.0
.342
41
Daulton Varsho
541
.241
.304
.455
109
.214
.273
7
1.9
.324
96
Kevin Kiermaier
359
.245
.306
.377
90
.132
.312
11
1.8
.298
59
Spencer Horwitz
507
.255
.343
.384
103
.129
.305
8
1.6
.321
67
Brandon Belt
366
.237
.344
.458
122
.221
.318
-1
1.3
.346
51
Ernie Clement
361
.270
.311
.390
95
.120
.287
1
1.1
.305
51
Mason McCoy
472
.210
.272
.345
71
.135
.297
9
1.1
.270
67
Santiago Espinal
357
.268
.327
.363
93
.095
.309
3
1.1
.304
48
Rafael Lantigua
528
.242
.321
.362
91
.120
.306
7
1.0
.302
85
Cavan Biggio
368
.225
.332
.368
96
.143
.295
-2
0.9
.311
49
Alan Roden
516
.253
.343
.348
95
.095
.293
2
0.9
.311
79
Nathan Lukes
355
.265
.321
.382
96
.117
.312
6
0.9
.307
49
Addison Barger
480
.240
.308
.399
96
.159
.300
5
0.9
.308
63
Leo Jimenez
384
.235
.323
.336
85
.101
.292
-1
0.8
.297
45
Whit Merrifield
556
.252
.299
.365
85
.113
.290
0
0.7
.289
100
Damiano Palmegiani
536
.213
.295
.379
87
.166
.285
-1
0.6
.295
59
Orelvis Martinez
550
.221
.289
.413
93
.192
.273
-9
0.6
.302
63
Tanner Morris
420
.236
.325
.323
83
.087
.303
0
0.5
.292
41
Cam Eden
422
.214
.287
.302
65
.087
.309
4
0.5
.265
92
Otto Lopez
434
.251
.305
.337
80
.085
.307
-1
0.5
.283
65
Devonte Brown
405
.203
.294
.352
80
.149
.296
0
0.4
.286
57
Jamie Ritchie
261
.237
.330
.298
78
.061
.303
-1
0.4
.288
25
Tyler Heineman
209
.220
.302
.286
66
.066
.283
2
0.3
.269
22
Michael Turconi
424
.222
.311
.341
83
.119
.292
-3
0.2
.291
46
Luis De Los Santos
400
.215
.273
.330
68
.114
.283
6
0.2
.266
40
Rob Brantly
229
.246
.328
.335
86
.089
.291
-4
0.2
.299
23
Cade Doughty
414
.212
.275
.354
75
.143
.305
1
0.0
.277
42
Josh Kasevich
372
.251
.309
.313
75
.062
.287
-4
0.0
.279
44
Phil Clarke
308
.232
.316
.320
79
.088
.277
-7
-0.1
.288
32
Zac Cook
300
.184
.276
.330
69
.146
.317
0
-0.1
.271
41
Riley Tirotta
353
.204
.283
.331
71
.127
.308
1
-0.1
.273
43
Steward Berroa
420
.207
.285
.321
69
.114
.300
-1
-0.1
.270
89
Stevie Berman
190
.207
.302
.311
72
.104
.274
-3
-0.2
.277
16
Max McDowell
265
.192
.295
.253
56
.061
.278
0
-0.2
.257
20
Zach Britton
271
.203
.314
.332
81
.129
.304
0
-0.2
.290
31
LJ Talley
341
.224
.293
.334
75
.110
.281
3
-0.3
.279
39
Bryce Arnold
155
.217
.303
.319
75
.101
.286
-4
-0.3
.281
18
Peyton Williams
332
.223
.289
.355
79
.133
.296
2
-0.3
.283
33
Garrett Spain
361
.199
.263
.323
63
.124
.288
7
-0.4
.259
35
Jeffrey Wehler
208
.203
.279
.337
71
.134
.296
-2
-0.5
.272
32
Dylan Rock
148
.187
.264
.313
61
.127
.276
0
-0.5
.258
17
Alex De Jesus
422
.209
.282
.352
76
.143
.305
-5
-0.6
.277
44
Karl Ellison
128
.158
.211
.250
28
.092
.265
-1
-0.8
.206
7
PK Morris
329
.187
.274
.301
61
.114
.289
4
-0.8
.259
26
Trevor Schwecke
360
.218
.286
.331
72
.113
.298
-2
-0.9
.273
42
Gabriel Martinez
454
.239
.282
.357
77
.117
.283
-2
-0.9
.279
45
Miguel Hiraldo
412
.211
.258
.334
64
.123
.308
-4
-0.9
.258
57
Andres Sosa
263
.209
.310
.302
73
.093
.290
-13
-1.0
.280
26
Dasan Brown
461
.209
.279
.298
62
.089
.303
-2
-1.0
.260
66
Kekai Rios
210
.192
.252
.275
48
.083
.283
-9
-1.4
.237
14
Rainer Nunez
484
.229
.271
.345
71
.116
.301
0
-1.4
.268
43
Sebastian Espino
303
.184
.226
.307
47
.124
.331
0
-1.6
.232
24
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Bo Bichette
.319
.360
.531
144
5.8
.265
.305
.427
102
2.3
Matt Chapman
.265
.356
.506
136
4.8
.216
.309
.399
97
2.2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
.306
.385
.546
157
4.7
.254
.332
.438
115
1.3
Alejandro Kirk
.292
.374
.454
131
4.2
.235
.316
.351
89
1.9
Davis Schneider
.252
.357
.483
128
4.0
.210
.309
.383
93
1.8
George Springer
.277
.350
.475
127
3.6
.229
.302
.385
91
1.0
Danny Jansen
.270
.356
.533
142
2.7
.218
.301
.410
98
1.2
Daulton Varsho
.268
.328
.509
130
3.4
.217
.279
.401
90
0.7
Kevin Kiermaier
.274
.332
.425
110
2.6
.219
.277
.336
73
1.0
Spencer Horwitz
.280
.367
.428
121
2.6
.228
.316
.350
86
0.5
Brandon Belt
.264
.374
.521
147
2.4
.213
.320
.393
101
0.4
Ernie Clement
.302
.338
.437
115
2.0
.239
.279
.342
73
0.2
Mason McCoy
.237
.300
.398
93
2.4
.185
.246
.303
55
0.2
Santiago Espinal
.296
.354
.400
109
1.8
.242
.304
.325
76
0.4
Rafael Lantigua
.267
.345
.403
108
2.1
.216
.295
.316
72
-0.2
Cavan Biggio
.254
.360
.424
115
1.9
.198
.301
.322
74
0.0
Alan Roden
.279
.368
.391
113
2.0
.228
.316
.310
77
-0.1
Nathan Lukes
.295
.351
.428
116
1.8
.231
.291
.333
74
-0.1
Addison Barger
.265
.332
.447
116
2.0
.214
.281
.349
77
-0.3
Leo Jimenez
.259
.348
.382
101
1.6
.209
.300
.300
69
0.0
Whit Merrifield
.277
.325
.403
101
1.9
.222
.269
.321
67
-0.6
Damiano Palmegiani
.238
.318
.432
107
1.8
.188
.267
.329
67
-0.6
Orelvis Martinez
.246
.317
.474
117
2.1
.195
.262
.365
75
-0.7
Tanner Morris
.263
.350
.359
97
1.2
.211
.296
.281
64
-0.5
Cam Eden
.240
.311
.340
81
1.2
.192
.261
.267
50
-0.5
Otto Lopez
.279
.332
.379
98
1.5
.223
.277
.298
63
-0.5
Devonte Brown
.228
.318
.396
96
1.2
.175
.267
.296
59
-0.6
Jamie Ritchie
.264
.358
.335
95
0.9
.205
.300
.262
61
-0.2
Tyler Heineman
.251
.332
.327
85
0.8
.190
.275
.242
49
-0.2
Michael Turconi
.245
.336
.384
99
1.0
.195
.287
.296
65
-0.7
Luis De Los Santos
.242
.299
.386
88
1.2
.190
.245
.288
48
-0.8
Rob Brantly
.276
.354
.374
106
0.7
.216
.304
.295
69
-0.3
Cade Doughty
.234
.299
.404
93
0.9
.187
.250
.313
58
-0.9
Josh Kasevich
.277
.335
.349
90
0.7
.225
.285
.280
59
-0.8
Phil Clarke
.262
.347
.366
99
0.7
.200
.285
.281
60
-0.8
Zac Cook
.213
.301
.386
90
0.6
.160
.255
.279
52
-0.7
Riley Tirotta
.233
.309
.381
90
0.7
.180
.259
.284
54
-0.9
Steward Berroa
.231
.311
.366
85
0.7
.178
.259
.287
53
-1.0
Stevie Berman
.241
.335
.364
94
0.3
.179
.268
.265
52
-0.6
Max McDowell
.226
.328
.298
77
0.5
.160
.265
.214
38
-0.8
Zach Britton
.229
.341
.380
100
0.4
.176
.285
.286
64
-0.9
LJ Talley
.253
.322
.386
95
0.6
.200
.266
.293
59
-1.0
Bryce Arnold
.258
.347
.377
102
0.2
.187
.276
.271
56
-0.7
Peyton Williams
.248
.316
.402
98
0.4
.199
.264
.317
63
-1.0
Garrett Spain
.227
.289
.364
80
0.3
.174
.236
.276
44
-1.3
Jeffrey Wehler
.228
.304
.390
90
0.0
.174
.255
.293
52
-0.9
Dylan Rock
.217
.298
.364
81
-0.1
.159
.233
.269
41
-0.8
Alex De Jesus
.239
.312
.406
97
0.5
.185
.257
.310
58
-1.5
Karl Ellison
.192
.244
.303
53
-0.4
.135
.184
.205
11
-1.1
PK Morris
.211
.303
.347
79
-0.1
.161
.247
.261
43
-1.5
Trevor Schwecke
.239
.309
.373
88
-0.2
.193
.261
.298
57
-1.6
Gabriel Martinez
.267
.311
.406
98
0.2
.213
.257
.314
59
-2.0
Miguel Hiraldo
.236
.283
.373
82
0.0
.186
.234
.289
45
-1.9
Andres Sosa
.237
.338
.348
92
-0.3
.182
.282
.259
54
-1.6
Dasan Brown
.231
.299
.338
77
-0.1
.184
.256
.265
48
-1.8
Kekai Rios
.222
.287
.317
69
-0.8
.163
.221
.234
29
-1.9
Rainer Nunez
.250
.292
.384
88
-0.4
.203
.246
.303
53
-2.5
Sebastian Espino
.214
.258
.355
68
-0.8
.157
.204
.259
30
-2.3
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Bo Bichette
.302
.350
.500
.287
.326
.458
Matt Chapman
.247
.343
.468
.236
.329
.447
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
.275
.362
.480
.279
.354
.498
Alejandro Kirk
.264
.354
.400
.263
.340
.404
Davis Schneider
.228
.336
.429
.232
.330
.431
George Springer
.257
.341
.434
.254
.322
.431
Danny Jansen
.242
.330
.453
.246
.324
.485
Daulton Varsho
.240
.298
.419
.241
.307
.468
Kevin Kiermaier
.239
.292
.341
.248
.312
.391
Spencer Horwitz
.239
.326
.352
.264
.353
.401
Brandon Belt
.226
.333
.417
.241
.348
.474
Ernie Clement
.273
.320
.388
.268
.304
.392
Mason McCoy
.214
.284
.358
.206
.262
.333
Santiago Espinal
.276
.338
.386
.263
.319
.348
Rafael Lantigua
.245
.332
.365
.240
.312
.360
Cavan Biggio
.224
.330
.341
.226
.332
.378
Alan Roden
.241
.338
.331
.258
.345
.355
Nathan Lukes
.250
.307
.352
.274
.330
.401
Addison Barger
.233
.300
.374
.244
.313
.413
Leo Jimenez
.239
.329
.341
.232
.319
.333
Whit Merrifield
.258
.304
.374
.249
.296
.361
Damiano Palmegiani
.216
.306
.395
.211
.288
.368
Orelvis Martinez
.227
.302
.435
.216
.280
.397
Tanner Morris
.227
.316
.311
.241
.329
.329
Cam Eden
.217
.291
.331
.213
.285
.281
Otto Lopez
.259
.319
.344
.244
.292
.330
Devonte Brown
.209
.311
.374
.199
.283
.338
Jamie Ritchie
.240
.345
.310
.234
.317
.289
Tyler Heineman
.222
.310
.254
.218
.299
.303
Michael Turconi
.215
.309
.327
.224
.312
.346
Luis De Los Santos
.222
.280
.341
.210
.266
.320
Rob Brantly
.220
.313
.271
.257
.333
.361
Cade Doughty
.215
.280
.356
.210
.272
.354
Josh Kasevich
.254
.318
.321
.249
.304
.307
Phil Clarke
.222
.307
.289
.236
.320
.335
Zac Cook
.182
.287
.313
.185
.269
.340
Riley Tirotta
.202
.288
.341
.205
.280
.324
Steward Berroa
.203
.284
.319
.209
.285
.322
Stevie Berman
.213
.318
.307
.202
.287
.315
Max McDowell
.196
.297
.268
.189
.294
.242
Zach Britton
.198
.310
.314
.205
.316
.342
LJ Talley
.212
.280
.319
.231
.301
.344
Bryce Arnold
.228
.323
.333
.210
.289
.309
Peyton Williams
.209
.274
.314
.228
.295
.372
Garrett Spain
.186
.259
.304
.205
.265
.332
Jeffrey Wehler
.200
.286
.373
.205
.274
.313
Dylan Rock
.196
.274
.339
.179
.256
.295
Alex De Jesus
.213
.295
.361
.205
.270
.344
Karl Ellison
.157
.218
.255
.159
.205
.246
PK Morris
.177
.266
.274
.193
.280
.318
Trevor Schwecke
.216
.289
.321
.219
.284
.339
Gabriel Martinez
.239
.289
.361
.240
.277
.354
Miguel Hiraldo
.216
.267
.335
.208
.251
.333
Andres Sosa
.215
.321
.312
.205
.303
.295
Dasan Brown
.215
.289
.299
.205
.271
.297
Kekai Rios
.200
.269
.271
.185
.239
.278
Rainer Nunez
.235
.284
.342
.224
.261
.347
Sebastian Espino
.185
.233
.323
.182
.220
.296
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Kevin Gausman
169.0
9.8
2.1
1.2
5.7%
26.4%
.304
124
3.53
80
3.6
Chris Bassitt
171.3
7.8
2.4
1.1
6.3%
20.9%
.283
112
4.11
89
3.0
José Berríos
170.3
8.5
2.4
1.3
6.5%
22.6%
.293
105
4.18
96
2.4
Yusei Kikuchi
135.7
9.1
3.5
1.5
9.0%
23.2%
.302
98
4.63
102
1.6
Alek Manoah
120.7
8.1
3.4
1.2
9.0%
21.1%
.275
96
4.63
104
1.3
Ricky Tiedemann
79.3
10.4
4.2
1.1
10.9%
27.1%
.288
105
4.24
95
1.1
Jordan Romano
58.7
11.0
3.1
1.2
8.3%
29.9%
.286
128
3.75
78
1.1
Hyun Jin Ryu
86.3
7.0
2.2
1.4
5.7%
18.3%
.299
98
4.42
102
1.0
Bowden Francis
87.7
8.6
3.2
1.3
8.3%
22.6%
.282
100
4.57
100
1.0
Chad Dallas
104.0
7.4
4.2
1.2
10.5%
18.7%
.292
90
4.91
111
0.9
Erik Swanson
60.0
10.2
2.9
1.2
7.7%
27.4%
.289
120
3.72
84
0.8
Mitch White
80.3
8.0
3.4
1.1
8.6%
20.3%
.299
94
4.34
107
0.7
Chad Green
43.3
10.4
2.3
1.2
6.2%
28.1%
.294
122
3.51
82
0.7
Zach Thompson
94.3
6.3
3.3
1.2
8.4%
15.9%
.295
90
4.89
111
0.7
Tim Mayza
54.7
7.7
3.0
1.0
7.8%
20.3%
.285
119
4.01
84
0.7
Hayden Juenger
77.0
8.4
3.9
1.2
9.9%
21.5%
.290
100
4.51
100
0.6
Trevor Richards
66.3
11.5
3.9
1.4
10.3%
30.1%
.286
102
4.01
98
0.5
Paxton Schultz
93.3
7.1
4.3
1.3
10.7%
17.5%
.299
88
5.02
114
0.5
Connor Cooke
48.0
10.1
3.2
1.1
8.2%
26.1%
.298
109
3.94
91
0.5
Adam Macko
79.3
8.2
4.5
1.2
11.2%
20.2%
.292
86
5.06
116
0.5
Trenton Wallace
59.3
8.3
5.0
1.2
12.4%
20.7%
.287
89
5.02
113
0.4
Jordan Hicks
62.3
10.4
4.9
1.0
12.3%
26.1%
.288
103
4.23
97
0.4
Brandon Eisert
62.7
8.5
3.0
1.1
7.8%
22.0%
.298
103
4.13
97
0.4
Wes Parsons
76.0
7.8
4.3
1.3
10.6%
19.4%
.297
87
5.02
115
0.4
Yimi García
57.3
9.4
3.0
1.3
7.9%
25.0%
.294
106
4.18
95
0.4
Luis Quinones
74.7
8.7
4.9
1.3
12.1%
21.2%
.290
87
5.09
115
0.3
Génesis Cabrera
60.7
9.0
3.9
1.2
9.9%
23.2%
.287
104
4.44
96
0.3
Anthony Bass
42.3
9.4
3.2
1.3
8.4%
24.7%
.286
113
4.15
89
0.3
Hagen Danner
39.7
9.3
3.2
1.1
8.1%
23.8%
.292
105
4.04
95
0.3
Jay Jackson
47.3
9.7
2.5
1.3
6.6%
26.0%
.290
108
3.91
93
0.3
Matt Wisler
53.0
8.3
3.6
1.4
9.1%
21.2%
.293
98
4.67
103
0.2
Nick Fraze
46.7
6.8
3.7
1.4
9.3%
17.1%
.289
86
5.31
116
0.2
Mason Fluharty
54.7
8.4
3.5
1.2
8.9%
21.7%
.297
101
4.32
99
0.2
Alejandro Melean
62.3
6.6
4.6
1.2
11.4%
16.4%
.292
88
5.13
114
0.2
T.J. Brock
49.0
10.1
3.9
1.1
9.6%
25.2%
.294
102
4.19
98
0.2
Nate Pearson
57.0
9.8
4.6
1.3
11.4%
24.4%
.286
97
4.59
103
0.2
Trent Palmer
53.0
8.5
5.4
1.2
13.2%
20.6%
.291
82
5.24
122
0.2
Michael Dominguez
85.0
8.2
5.8
1.4
14.1%
19.7%
.289
81
5.58
123
0.2
CJ Van Eyk
52.7
7.0
4.6
1.4
11.3%
17.1%
.294
81
5.32
123
0.1
Rowan Wick
48.0
9.6
4.1
1.3
10.4%
24.1%
.302
96
4.53
104
0.1
Abdiel Mendoza
61.0
6.2
4.1
1.2
10.1%
15.2%
.299
83
5.21
120
0.1
Andrew Bash
73.7
6.2
4.4
1.2
10.8%
15.4%
.290
84
5.39
119
0.1
Sean Mellen
40.7
8.0
4.9
1.3
12.0%
19.6%
.297
88
5.17
113
0.1
Ryan Boyer
30.7
8.8
3.5
1.2
9.0%
22.4%
.294
98
4.56
102
0.0
Brendon Little
59.7
7.5
4.4
1.2
10.6%
18.2%
.298
92
4.98
109
0.0
Luke Bard
34.7
7.5
3.6
1.3
9.2%
19.0%
.294
87
5.01
115
0.0
Matt Peacock
53.0
5.6
3.9
1.4
9.6%
13.8%
.295
85
5.33
118
0.0
Jimmy Robbins
76.7
7.0
5.4
1.3
13.0%
16.9%
.293
78
5.71
128
0.0
Yosver Zulueta
56.7
8.6
5.2
1.3
12.8%
21.0%
.287
82
5.51
122
0.0
Trevor Clifton
50.0
6.3
4.5
1.4
10.9%
15.3%
.293
77
5.80
130
-0.1
Adam Cimber
47.0
5.9
2.1
1.3
5.5%
15.6%
.289
90
4.89
111
-0.1
Zach Pop
51.3
7.7
3.2
1.2
8.1%
19.8%
.298
91
4.66
110
-0.1
Gabe Klobosits
26.0
6.2
4.5
1.4
11.0%
15.3%
.293
83
5.60
121
-0.2
Grayson Thurman
42.7
6.5
4.4
1.3
10.7%
15.8%
.293
85
5.18
118
-0.2
Gabriel Ponce
54.0
8.8
6.0
1.3
14.6%
21.5%
.291
83
5.50
120
-0.2
Jackson Rees
27.7
9.8
6.2
1.3
14.6%
23.1%
.301
83
5.13
121
-0.2
Julian Fernández
40.0
7.0
4.3
1.4
10.5%
17.1%
.289
87
5.23
115
-0.2
Naswell Paulino
63.0
6.3
5.3
1.4
12.7%
15.1%
.293
77
5.87
129
-0.2
Paul Fry
46.7
8.5
5.0
1.2
12.4%
21.0%
.290
83
5.03
121
-0.2
Adrian Hernandez
47.3
9.5
6.3
1.3
14.9%
22.5%
.288
84
5.47
119
-0.2
Jimmy Burnette
43.0
10.3
6.1
1.3
14.9%
25.1%
.287
86
5.30
117
-0.3
Troy Watson
54.3
6.1
5.0
1.3
12.0%
14.7%
.291
79
5.63
127
-0.3
Fitz Stadler
38.7
8.4
6.8
1.4
15.7%
19.5%
.300
74
5.82
135
-0.4
Parker Caracci
34.3
6.8
6.0
1.3
14.0%
15.9%
.288
78
5.82
128
-0.4
Jol Concepcion
41.7
7.6
8.6
1.5
19.2%
16.8%
.287
66
6.93
150
-0.6
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Kevin Gausman
.229
.278
.377
.253
.293
.419
4.6
2.3
2.87
4.14
Chris Bassitt
.233
.299
.404
.250
.301
.385
3.9
2.0
3.33
4.41
José Berríos
.250
.315
.442
.245
.293
.388
3.3
1.2
3.65
4.83
Yusei Kikuchi
.209
.275
.357
.267
.340
.465
2.4
0.4
3.84
5.27
Alek Manoah
.266
.355
.456
.204
.279
.333
2.2
0.5
3.90
5.15
Ricky Tiedemann
.223
.321
.394
.223
.321
.364
1.8
0.5
3.38
4.83
Jordan Romano
.206
.277
.353
.229
.303
.398
1.8
0.2
2.59
4.68
Hyun Jin Ryu
.271
.308
.435
.266
.309
.452
1.5
0.4
3.81
5.17
Bowden Francis
.253
.326
.432
.227
.303
.398
1.5
0.3
3.82
5.06
Chad Dallas
.265
.351
.420
.245
.329
.418
1.4
0.2
4.32
5.30
Erik Swanson
.239
.298
.398
.217
.278
.374
1.4
0.1
2.88
4.86
Mitch White
.247
.325
.387
.261
.320
.436
1.2
0.1
3.98
5.32
Chad Green
.237
.284
.421
.225
.271
.371
1.2
0.1
2.58
4.96
Zach Thompson
.272
.350
.456
.264
.319
.421
1.2
0.1
4.35
5.39
Tim Mayza
.215
.267
.329
.258
.322
.417
1.2
0.1
3.00
4.35
Hayden Juenger
.228
.319
.379
.260
.331
.422
1.2
0.1
3.80
4.86
Trevor Richards
.212
.302
.372
.221
.296
.404
1.2
-0.2
3.24
5.40
Paxton Schultz
.274
.367
.441
.255
.326
.427
1.0
-0.2
4.46
5.54
Connor Cooke
.244
.316
.407
.224
.306
.378
1.0
0.0
3.02
4.92
Adam Macko
.245
.339
.404
.251
.352
.428
1.0
-0.1
4.47
5.62
Trenton Wallace
.227
.325
.318
.250
.354
.445
0.8
0.0
4.34
5.54
Jordan Hicks
.255
.365
.415
.194
.295
.318
1.0
-0.4
3.54
5.24
Brandon Eisert
.241
.309
.345
.253
.312
.437
0.9
-0.2
3.45
5.05
Wes Parsons
.255
.350
.412
.260
.339
.459
0.9
-0.2
4.44
5.69
Yimi García
.237
.314
.441
.242
.305
.383
1.0
-0.3
3.24
5.13
Luis Quinones
.237
.342
.430
.252
.350
.406
0.8
-0.3
4.40
5.68
Génesis Cabrera
.240
.333
.360
.234
.315
.411
0.9
-0.2
3.54
4.92
Anthony Bass
.247
.321
.411
.225
.286
.393
0.7
-0.1
2.98
4.93
Hagen Danner
.247
.321
.438
.228
.295
.354
0.7
-0.1
3.27
5.00
Jay Jackson
.241
.300
.398
.232
.280
.424
0.8
-0.3
2.94
5.58
Matt Wisler
.266
.358
.479
.239
.293
.389
0.7
-0.3
3.65
5.42
Nick Fraze
.261
.363
.455
.260
.333
.427
0.5
-0.1
4.52
5.62
Mason Fluharty
.225
.291
.352
.261
.333
.437
0.6
-0.3
3.65
5.11
Alejandro Melean
.234
.333
.369
.281
.364
.459
0.6
-0.2
4.44
5.51
T.J. Brock
.233
.330
.400
.227
.315
.371
0.6
-0.2
3.53
5.01
Nate Pearson
.240
.350
.423
.221
.305
.372
0.7
-0.3
3.73
5.16
Trent Palmer
.258
.376
.443
.231
.344
.370
0.5
-0.3
4.73
6.10
Michael Dominguez
.281
.397
.490
.223
.335
.380
0.8
-0.5
4.75
5.92
CJ Van Eyk
.280
.376
.480
.248
.325
.404
0.5
-0.3
4.74
6.08
Rowan Wick
.256
.350
.400
.237
.312
.433
0.6
-0.3
3.70
5.41
Abdiel Mendoza
.315
.405
.528
.235
.314
.360
0.4
-0.3
4.72
5.77
Andrew Bash
.275
.373
.486
.253
.341
.390
0.5
-0.5
4.66
5.79
Sean Mellen
.255
.356
.392
.257
.349
.450
0.4
-0.3
4.27
5.59
Ryan Boyer
.263
.354
.456
.226
.310
.371
0.3
-0.3
3.68
5.44
Brendon Little
.234
.318
.351
.270
.361
.459
0.5
-0.4
4.07
5.37
Luke Bard
.274
.366
.468
.243
.321
.405
0.3
-0.3
4.26
5.79
Matt Peacock
.293
.377
.485
.261
.317
.426
0.3
-0.4
4.58
5.75
Jimmy Robbins
.250
.364
.402
.265
.376
.455
0.5
-0.5
4.99
6.18
Yosver Zulueta
.233
.375
.437
.250
.358
.388
0.4
-0.6
4.59
6.15
Trevor Clifton
.276
.374
.469
.265
.356
.441
0.3
-0.5
5.05
6.35
Adam Cimber
.268
.338
.493
.267
.312
.414
0.2
-0.5
4.08
5.72
Zach Pop
.258
.333
.473
.257
.328
.385
0.3
-0.5
4.01
5.67
Gabe Klobosits
.269
.367
.442
.269
.350
.481
0.0
-0.4
4.70
5.91
Grayson Thurman
.269
.367
.436
.261
.330
.435
0.1
-0.4
4.56
5.59
Gabriel Ponce
.265
.392
.469
.225
.341
.378
0.2
-0.6
4.53
5.83
Jackson Rees
.245
.375
.453
.241
.344
.389
0.1
-0.5
4.44
6.49
Julian Fernández
.264
.354
.417
.256
.337
.453
0.1
-0.6
4.39
5.73
Naswell Paulino
.256
.366
.423
.276
.371
.466
0.2
-0.7
4.95
6.23
Paul Fry
.243
.354
.414
.243
.351
.396
0.2
-0.8
4.42
6.46
Adrian Hernandez
.241
.383
.391
.232
.351
.432
0.1
-0.7
4.50
5.98
Jimmy Burnette
.204
.348
.296
.239
.373
.450
0.2
-0.6
4.24
5.71
Troy Watson
.257
.363
.476
.277
.359
.411
0.0
-0.8
4.96
6.17
Fitz Stadler
.257
.389
.459
.256
.372
.423
0.0
-0.8
5.15
6.86
Parker Caracci
.270
.395
.460
.250
.353
.417
-0.2
-0.8
4.92
6.61
Jol Concepcion
.239
.413
.408
.269
.410
.484
-0.3
-1.0
5.70
7.44
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.