For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Texas Rangers.
Batters
The Rangers led the American League in runs scored in 2023, and most of the players who contributed to that success are set to return to the lineup in 2024. Sure, Corey Seager might not repeat his monster season, but his performance should still land comfortably in star territory, and the Rangers could get a little luckier with his health. Evan Carter isn’t likely to post an OPS around 1.000 again, but that’s balanced by the fact that the team ought to get a lot more than 23 regular season games from him this year.
There are no real surprises among Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, or Jonah Heim, and ZiPS is now far more convinced by Leody Taveras‘ offense. Losing Mitch Garver to the Mariners hurts, but maybe not as much as you would think. If you thought Steamer was bullish on Wyatt Langford making an immediate impact, well rest assured that ZiPS agrees. It sees his production taking a slightly different shape (less OBP, more power), but the computer still views him as a legitimate big league bat. The only reason the DH projection on the graphic below is relatively low is that ZiPS likes Sam Huff and Ezequiel Duran a good bit less as DHs. If the projections are right, Langford will be among the quickest college bats to succeed in the majors.
Once you take into account the presence of Langford and the odds that he’ll be as good as any hitter they were likely to add in free agency (except for Shohei Ohtani, naturally), you can understand why the Rangers have had a rather quiet offseason, especially compared to some of their recent ones. It’s usually a dangerous sign when a championship team kind of stands pat, but it was largely justified by Texas’ roster and the players available this offseason. Of course, Ohtani would still have been nice!
Pitchers
The injuries make this a really weird set of projections, as this rotation projects as much better in the playoffs than it does in the regular season. It would have been nice to retain Jordan Montgomery — he gets the best projection here, after all — and they could still re-sign him, but Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle are all expected back sometime this summer. All three of those returns have the potential to match the best deals Texas could make at the trade deadline. While I could see the Rangers doing a little tinkering here, I think their plan is to cobble together a competitive rotation for most of the season and come October, play around with their suddenly impressive depth. That’s not at all different from how 2023 worked out.
Among the returning, healthier pitchers, there also aren’t many surprises. Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Andrew Heaney are far from the most exciting front four, but they’re at least a competent quartet. The offense will likely be good enough that holding down the fort may be all the Rangers need here.
The relief corps projects as the team’s weak spot. Nobody here is expected to be aggressively lousy, but there’s a strong scent of the ordinary wafting through the bullpen. ZiPS thinks that Josh Sborz and Brock Burke should handle more high-leverage innings while José Leclerc takes fewer, and the computer has little faith in post-injury Kirby Yates, who is now in the twilight of his career. There are still relievers out there who Texas could land, such as Josh Hader, David Robertson, Robert Stephenson, or Hector Neris. This is where I expect the Rangers to show some movement.
All told, this is a very competitive AL West team, though ZiPS puts them a hair behind the Astros at this point.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Corey Seager
L
30
SS
556
492
81
145
31
1
26
84
54
88
2
1
Marcus Semien
R
33
2B
698
626
106
166
36
3
26
93
66
110
11
2
Jonah Heim
B
29
C
449
411
50
102
22
2
16
61
35
83
2
1
Wyatt Langford
R
22
LF
599
546
81
144
41
5
24
98
44
125
18
6
Adolis García
R
31
RF
603
546
88
135
27
2
31
98
45
172
12
3
Evan Carter
L
21
LF
617
532
79
138
26
5
15
79
73
160
19
7
Leody Taveras
B
25
CF
571
519
72
135
28
4
14
68
45
121
16
5
Justin Foscue
R
25
2B
511
449
69
111
31
2
14
71
47
86
6
4
Nathaniel Lowe
L
28
1B
621
562
71
157
25
2
22
82
55
140
3
1
Josh Jung
R
26
3B
461
427
60
109
23
1
19
69
27
126
1
2
Sam Huff
R
26
C
368
335
43
79
13
0
18
56
29
115
0
1
Josh H. Smith
L
26
3B
373
319
49
75
15
2
9
39
38
81
6
3
Josh Harrison
R
36
3B
357
323
36
85
18
2
6
36
18
62
3
2
Ezequiel Duran
R
25
SS
491
455
59
113
25
3
15
61
26
132
9
5
Davis Wendzel
R
27
SS
470
413
57
89
16
0
19
64
44
127
2
2
Sandro Fabian
R
26
RF
439
413
52
106
22
2
17
62
16
82
3
1
Derek Hill
R
28
CF
403
370
53
91
14
4
10
52
24
102
11
4
Jonathan Ornelas
R
24
SS
525
476
68
108
17
2
8
54
40
133
8
3
Blaine Crim
R
27
1B
538
485
66
123
23
2
18
75
39
113
1
1
J.P. Martinez
L
28
CF
441
393
49
85
14
6
9
50
41
143
19
5
Travis Jankowski
L
33
LF
284
245
38
59
10
1
1
21
35
49
14
2
Robbie Grossman
B
34
LF
461
392
54
89
20
1
12
51
59
115
6
2
Geisel Cepeda
R
26
LF
407
377
37
96
10
1
4
35
23
52
4
5
Dustin Harris
L
24
LF
522
467
66
112
21
4
13
64
46
125
18
3
Liam Hicks
L
25
C
347
296
27
69
12
1
3
35
38
66
3
1
Abimelec Ortiz
L
22
1B
447
405
55
92
15
3
21
66
31
147
1
2
Kellen Strahm
R
27
RF
455
403
55
89
15
2
6
42
45
123
5
1
Elier Hernandez
R
29
RF
510
474
62
115
23
3
13
63
28
125
5
3
Trevor Hauver
L
25
RF
461
399
47
85
19
2
11
49
54
153
1
1
Andrew Knizner
R
29
C
262
237
29
54
11
0
7
30
18
62
1
1
Diosbel Arias
R
27
2B
429
393
47
92
18
2
7
45
30
118
2
1
Scott Kapers
R
27
C
254
224
28
47
9
1
6
32
14
72
0
1
Andrew Knapp
B
32
C
295
266
27
55
11
1
7
33
23
89
1
1
Nick Tanielu
R
31
1B
307
281
33
61
14
1
7
33
20
77
1
1
Benjamin Blackwell
R
25
2B
93
88
8
18
2
0
1
8
5
27
2
2
Jax Biggers
L
27
2B
405
364
36
78
13
2
6
36
31
99
7
3
Jordan Procyshen
L
31
C
125
109
13
21
4
0
2
12
11
36
0
1
David Garcia
B
24
C
261
238
27
49
9
0
3
25
17
79
1
1
Max Acosta
R
21
SS
492
459
58
106
23
1
7
49
24
117
15
7
Michael Reed
B
29
RF
168
150
18
29
7
0
3
15
14
62
5
1
Brad Miller
L
34
1B
280
249
30
52
8
1
10
34
29
81
2
1
Alejandro Osuna
L
21
RF
352
312
48
72
13
1
5
36
30
84
10
6
Matt Whatley
R
28
C
264
239
29
47
8
0
4
24
17
78
3
3
Devin Hurdle
R
24
2B
105
95
13
18
2
0
1
8
6
35
2
1
Daniel Mateo
R
22
CF
469
450
50
104
13
6
9
51
10
129
19
10
Cody Freeman
R
23
C
397
364
43
81
15
2
8
41
24
83
4
1
Jayce Easley
B
24
2B
341
287
41
57
8
2
1
25
39
84
16
4
Josh Sale
L
32
LF
188
165
20
31
5
0
6
20
20
71
1
1
Frainyer Chavez
B
25
2B
334
300
31
63
10
1
2
27
27
87
3
4
Cooper Johnson
R
26
C
227
200
21
34
10
0
3
19
21
92
1
1
Zion Bannister
B
22
LF
193
174
16
29
7
1
1
16
14
79
8
3
Angel Aponte
R
24
RF
226
208
26
45
10
1
3
22
11
68
7
3
Josh Hatcher
L
25
1B
393
371
44
79
13
2
9
41
16
126
5
2
Keyber Rodriguez
R
23
SS
493
453
57
101
18
2
5
44
27
121
12
4
Aaron Zavala
L
24
LF
450
388
46
72
15
1
6
43
51
167
5
2
Chris Seise
R
25
3B
371
345
35
64
14
1
5
32
22
143
7
2
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Corey Seager
556
.295
.367
.520
143
.226
.315
-1
4.5
.374
95
Marcus Semien
698
.265
.337
.457
118
.192
.286
7
4.3
.342
99
Jonah Heim
449
.248
.307
.428
102
.180
.276
11
2.8
.316
55
Wyatt Langford
599
.264
.324
.489
122
.225
.302
4
2.6
.346
93
Adolis García
603
.247
.310
.474
114
.227
.303
9
2.5
.334
84
Evan Carter
617
.259
.358
.412
114
.152
.345
5
2.4
.338
85
Leody Taveras
571
.260
.318
.410
101
.150
.315
7
2.4
.316
73
Justin Foscue
511
.247
.333
.419
107
.171
.278
-1
1.8
.328
65
Nathaniel Lowe
621
.279
.346
.448
119
.169
.338
-1
1.8
.344
88
Josh Jung
461
.255
.306
.447
106
.192
.319
3
1.7
.323
59
Sam Huff
368
.236
.302
.436
102
.200
.302
2
1.6
.317
44
Josh H. Smith
373
.235
.337
.379
99
.144
.288
4
1.5
.319
43
Josh Harrison
357
.263
.323
.387
96
.124
.310
6
1.4
.311
42
Ezequiel Duran
491
.248
.296
.415
95
.167
.318
0
1.3
.306
60
Davis Wendzel
470
.215
.303
.392
91
.177
.262
-1
1.1
.305
50
Sandro Fabian
439
.257
.294
.443
101
.186
.283
5
0.9
.315
55
Derek Hill
403
.246
.296
.386
88
.141
.314
2
0.7
.296
46
Jonathan Ornelas
525
.227
.294
.321
71
.095
.299
5
0.5
.275
48
Blaine Crim
538
.254
.318
.421
103
.167
.297
0
0.5
.319
65
J.P. Martinez
441
.216
.298
.351
80
.135
.315
0
0.4
.288
47
Travis Jankowski
284
.241
.339
.302
81
.061
.297
4
0.4
.293
29
Robbie Grossman
461
.227
.332
.375
96
.148
.291
-1
0.4
.313
51
Geisel Cepeda
407
.255
.307
.318
75
.064
.287
12
0.3
.280
40
Dustin Harris
522
.240
.314
.385
93
.146
.301
-1
0.3
.305
61
Liam Hicks
347
.233
.337
.311
82
.078
.291
-8
0.1
.297
32
Abimelec Ortiz
447
.227
.285
.435
96
.207
.300
1
0.0
.306
51
Kellen Strahm
455
.221
.302
.313
72
.092
.303
8
0.0
.277
40
Elier Hernandez
510
.243
.292
.386
86
.143
.304
3
0.0
.295
56
Trevor Hauver
461
.213
.309
.353
84
.140
.315
2
0.0
.294
44
Andrew Knizner
262
.228
.295
.363
82
.135
.280
-5
-0.1
.288
26
Diosbel Arias
429
.234
.292
.344
76
.109
.317
-1
-0.1
.280
40
Scott Kapers
254
.210
.286
.339
73
.129
.281
-3
-0.2
.277
22
Andrew Knapp
295
.207
.279
.335
70
.128
.282
-3
-0.2
.272
25
Nick Tanielu
307
.217
.277
.349
73
.132
.274
5
-0.3
.275
28
Benjamin Blackwell
93
.205
.247
.261
42
.057
.283
1
-0.3
.228
7
Jax Biggers
405
.214
.278
.310
63
.096
.278
3
-0.4
.262
34
Jordan Procyshen
125
.193
.282
.284
59
.092
.268
-2
-0.4
.259
9
David Garcia
261
.206
.272
.282
55
.076
.295
0
-0.4
.250
19
Max Acosta
492
.231
.274
.331
67
.100
.296
-1
-0.4
.266
48
Michael Reed
168
.193
.265
.300
57
.107
.306
2
-0.4
.253
13
Brad Miller
280
.209
.293
.369
83
.161
.266
-1
-0.4
.290
28
Alejandro Osuna
352
.231
.303
.327
75
.096
.300
2
-0.5
.281
35
Matt Whatley
264
.197
.261
.280
51
.084
.274
1
-0.5
.244
19
Devin Hurdle
105
.189
.243
.242
36
.053
.288
0
-0.6
.220
6
Daniel Mateo
469
.231
.252
.347
64
.116
.304
4
-0.6
.258
47
Cody Freeman
397
.223
.280
.341
71
.118
.267
-8
-0.6
.273
36
Jayce Easley
341
.199
.305
.251
58
.052
.277
-3
-0.7
.261
27
Josh Sale
188
.188
.287
.327
71
.139
.284
-4
-0.8
.277
16
Frainyer Chavez
334
.210
.280
.270
54
.060
.289
1
-0.9
.250
25
Cooper Johnson
227
.170
.258
.265
46
.095
.295
-7
-1.2
.239
14
Zion Bannister
193
.167
.244
.236
34
.069
.298
0
-1.3
.221
13
Angel Aponte
226
.216
.267
.317
62
.101
.307
-7
-1.5
.258
20
Josh Hatcher
393
.213
.247
.332
59
.119
.297
3
-1.5
.250
32
Keyber Rodriguez
493
.223
.271
.305
60
.082
.294
-10
-1.7
.254
41
Aaron Zavala
450
.186
.293
.276
60
.090
.307
-6
-2.0
.263
33
Chris Seise
371
.186
.237
.275
42
.090
.299
-6
-2.2
.228
25
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Corey Seager
.320
.391
.584
164
5.8
.271
.339
.467
122
3.0
Marcus Semien
.289
.362
.515
139
5.9
.241
.311
.410
99
2.6
Jonah Heim
.278
.334
.489
126
4.2
.223
.282
.370
83
1.9
Wyatt Langford
.291
.351
.552
144
4.3
.235
.293
.425
99
0.9
Adolis García
.272
.332
.531
136
4.1
.217
.282
.405
90
0.9
Evan Carter
.287
.389
.461
133
3.8
.226
.329
.358
92
0.8
Leody Taveras
.285
.346
.458
120
3.7
.238
.296
.365
84
1.3
Justin Foscue
.273
.358
.469
126
3.0
.222
.309
.369
89
0.7
Nathaniel Lowe
.302
.370
.499
139
3.2
.252
.317
.404
100
0.4
Josh Jung
.281
.333
.504
127
2.9
.229
.280
.386
84
0.4
Sam Huff
.266
.330
.502
125
2.6
.205
.273
.377
80
0.5
Josh H. Smith
.260
.361
.429
117
2.2
.212
.313
.335
81
0.7
Josh Harrison
.290
.349
.432
114
2.1
.232
.295
.340
77
0.5
Ezequiel Duran
.273
.320
.467
115
2.5
.222
.272
.369
77
0.2
Davis Wendzel
.242
.327
.459
113
2.2
.190
.275
.340
71
-0.1
Sandro Fabian
.283
.317
.501
123
2.2
.229
.265
.386
80
-0.1
Derek Hill
.271
.323
.433
106
1.6
.224
.272
.342
70
-0.2
Jonathan Ornelas
.252
.320
.364
90
1.7
.200
.270
.290
56
-0.5
Blaine Crim
.282
.345
.475
124
1.8
.227
.291
.372
86
-0.6
J.P. Martinez
.246
.325
.412
101
1.5
.190
.268
.303
58
-0.8
Travis Jankowski
.271
.366
.339
99
1.0
.213
.309
.268
64
-0.3
Robbie Grossman
.255
.359
.427
118
1.5
.200
.305
.321
77
-0.7
Geisel Cepeda
.281
.333
.353
90
1.1
.228
.282
.287
60
-0.5
Dustin Harris
.266
.340
.436
114
1.6
.215
.289
.339
77
-0.7
Liam Hicks
.260
.372
.352
102
0.9
.202
.310
.270
64
-0.8
Abimelec Ortiz
.252
.310
.490
116
1.1
.202
.259
.378
75
-1.1
Kellen Strahm
.248
.330
.353
89
0.9
.195
.272
.273
53
-1.1
Elier Hernandez
.267
.318
.430
103
1.1
.217
.267
.335
67
-1.2
Trevor Hauver
.239
.338
.402
101
0.9
.187
.279
.304
63
-1.2
Andrew Knizner
.259
.324
.421
104
0.6
.200
.266
.307
60
-0.8
Diosbel Arias
.259
.317
.382
93
0.7
.208
.263
.302
59
-1.0
Scott Kapers
.240
.318
.391
95
0.5
.177
.256
.284
51
-0.9
Andrew Knapp
.236
.306
.389
88
0.4
.183
.250
.289
50
-0.9
Nick Tanielu
.246
.304
.407
93
0.5
.191
.249
.301
52
-1.1
Benjamin Blackwell
.231
.276
.298
61
-0.1
.182
.223
.232
27
-0.5
Jax Biggers
.240
.308
.351
81
0.6
.185
.254
.266
46
-1.2
Jordan Procyshen
.224
.315
.338
81
0.0
.168
.252
.247
40
-0.7
David Garcia
.239
.305
.327
75
0.2
.176
.246
.240
36
-1.0
Max Acosta
.255
.300
.380
85
0.7
.204
.252
.292
51
-1.4
Michael Reed
.222
.294
.346
78
0.0
.169
.238
.261
40
-0.8
Brad Miller
.237
.321
.434
107
0.4
.179
.261
.307
60
-1.2
Alejandro Osuna
.257
.329
.376
95
0.4
.205
.275
.283
58
-1.3
Matt Whatley
.226
.294
.332
72
0.2
.168
.233
.243
33
-1.1
Devin Hurdle
.212
.264
.276
50
-0.4
.165
.218
.213
22
-0.8
Daniel Mateo
.251
.272
.388
81
0.3
.207
.228
.307
48
-1.6
Cody Freeman
.254
.309
.399
94
0.5
.191
.249
.289
50
-1.7
Jayce Easley
.227
.332
.286
74
0.1
.172
.281
.221
44
-1.3
Josh Sale
.219
.320
.391
97
-0.3
.162
.255
.272
50
-1.3
Frainyer Chavez
.234
.307
.307
70
-0.2
.182
.254
.233
37
-1.6
Cooper Johnson
.197
.285
.312
64
-0.7
.141
.225
.223
25
-1.8
Zion Bannister
.195
.275
.278
52
-0.8
.143
.215
.195
17
-1.7
Angel Aponte
.244
.297
.364
81
-0.9
.188
.240
.278
44
-2.0
Josh Hatcher
.243
.276
.387
80
-0.5
.192
.226
.290
43
-2.3
Keyber Rodriguez
.248
.298
.341
75
-0.7
.197
.246
.267
44
-2.6
Aaron Zavala
.212
.321
.318
76
-1.1
.161
.268
.235
43
-2.9
Chris Seise
.210
.261
.313
58
-1.5
.160
.211
.234
24
-3.0
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Corey Seager
.282
.345
.474
.301
.377
.542
Marcus Semien
.269
.343
.473
.264
.334
.450
Jonah Heim
.256
.307
.444
.245
.307
.422
Wyatt Langford
.269
.333
.516
.261
.319
.475
Adolis García
.246
.311
.485
.248
.310
.469
Evan Carter
.243
.338
.367
.267
.367
.433
Leody Taveras
.263
.318
.413
.259
.318
.409
Justin Foscue
.259
.347
.448
.240
.324
.400
Nathaniel Lowe
.272
.335
.432
.282
.351
.455
Josh Jung
.265
.314
.483
.250
.301
.429
Sam Huff
.238
.313
.462
.234
.295
.420
Josh H. Smith
.228
.331
.386
.239
.340
.376
Josh Harrison
.264
.320
.407
.263
.324
.379
Ezequiel Duran
.254
.309
.428
.245
.288
.408
Davis Wendzel
.231
.320
.423
.206
.292
.374
Sandro Fabian
.270
.306
.466
.248
.286
.428
Derek Hill
.255
.309
.403
.240
.287
.376
Jonathan Ornelas
.233
.305
.337
.223
.287
.310
Blaine Crim
.262
.329
.441
.247
.310
.406
J.P. Martinez
.212
.285
.336
.219
.306
.359
Travis Jankowski
.222
.319
.254
.247
.346
.319
Robbie Grossman
.246
.346
.404
.219
.326
.363
Geisel Cepeda
.263
.317
.342
.251
.303
.308
Dustin Harris
.236
.310
.364
.242
.317
.397
Liam Hicks
.233
.337
.302
.233
.337
.314
Abimelec Ortiz
.216
.279
.405
.231
.288
.446
Kellen Strahm
.231
.319
.350
.215
.293
.292
Elier Hernandez
.254
.306
.398
.235
.283
.379
Trevor Hauver
.197
.288
.321
.221
.319
.370
Andrew Knizner
.230
.296
.405
.227
.294
.344
Diosbel Arias
.234
.299
.354
.234
.287
.336
Scott Kapers
.213
.286
.333
.208
.286
.342
Andrew Knapp
.202
.272
.310
.209
.282
.346
Nick Tanielu
.224
.288
.364
.213
.270
.339
Benjamin Blackwell
.207
.258
.241
.203
.242
.271
Jax Biggers
.202
.258
.281
.220
.286
.324
Jordan Procyshen
.179
.256
.282
.200
.296
.286
David Garcia
.200
.266
.270
.210
.276
.290
Max Acosta
.233
.280
.329
.230
.271
.332
Michael Reed
.200
.267
.309
.189
.264
.295
Brad Miller
.203
.266
.322
.211
.301
.384
Alejandro Osuna
.222
.291
.293
.235
.308
.343
Matt Whatley
.196
.267
.293
.197
.256
.272
Devin Hurdle
.194
.242
.226
.188
.243
.250
Daniel Mateo
.240
.263
.357
.226
.247
.341
Cody Freeman
.219
.284
.344
.225
.277
.339
Jayce Easley
.206
.305
.255
.195
.306
.249
Josh Sale
.185
.279
.315
.189
.291
.333
Frainyer Chavez
.216
.276
.276
.207
.283
.266
Cooper Johnson
.171
.266
.271
.169
.253
.262
Zion Bannister
.179
.246
.214
.161
.242
.246
Angel Aponte
.219
.266
.315
.215
.267
.319
Josh Hatcher
.204
.239
.320
.216
.251
.336
Keyber Rodriguez
.231
.283
.325
.218
.264
.294
Aaron Zavala
.181
.281
.260
.188
.299
.284
Chris Seise
.188
.238
.282
.184
.237
.272
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Jordan Montgomery
L
31
10
8
3.84
29
29
168.7
163
72
22
52
160
Max Scherzer
R
39
8
8
4.05
24
24
135.7
121
61
22
36
149
Nathan Eovaldi
R
34
8
7
4.12
23
23
131.0
126
60
18
39
119
Jon Gray
R
32
7
8
4.25
25
25
131.3
122
62
17
43
131
Jacob deGrom
R
36
5
2
2.89
12
12
65.3
48
21
9
15
95
Tyler Mahle
R
29
6
7
4.35
22
22
118.0
107
57
17
42
119
Dane Dunning
R
29
7
9
4.57
30
24
145.7
149
74
20
49
127
Cody Bradford
L
26
7
9
4.41
28
21
112.3
116
55
17
29
95
Andrew Heaney
L
33
6
7
4.69
27
23
117.0
115
61
20
42
119
Robert Dugger
R
28
6
8
4.90
25
23
115.7
123
63
17
47
93
Brock Burke
L
27
5
5
3.69
52
0
68.3
62
28
9
19
65
Josh Stephan
R
22
5
7
4.73
20
18
91.3
91
48
13
29
76
Avery Weems
L
27
3
4
4.69
19
14
71.0
71
37
11
26
68
Aroldis Chapman
L
36
4
4
3.91
53
0
48.3
36
21
8
28
78
Zak Kent
R
26
2
4
4.90
18
17
71.7
74
39
11
26
63
Chase Lee
R
25
3
3
4.33
46
3
60.3
56
29
8
22
65
Jake Latz
L
28
2
3
4.66
35
9
65.7
63
34
10
32
68
Josh Sborz
R
30
4
3
3.99
61
0
56.3
51
25
8
22
66
Tim Brennan
R
27
3
5
4.99
17
12
61.3
68
34
9
15
36
Owen White
R
24
4
5
5.24
23
20
92.7
97
54
14
41
67
Jack Leiter
R
24
4
5
5.27
21
21
83.7
79
49
13
47
84
José Leclerc
R
30
1
2
4.26
57
0
57.0
46
27
8
30
69
Yerry Rodríguez
R
26
2
3
4.74
43
7
62.7
61
33
9
29
64
Matt Bush
R
38
1
1
4.24
34
3
34.0
30
16
5
14
36
Seth Nordlin
R
26
3
6
5.29
28
13
81.7
92
48
12
29
50
Marc Church
R
23
6
6
4.50
42
2
58.0
53
29
8
28
62
James Marvel
R
30
4
6
5.33
21
13
81.0
92
48
12
32
48
Cole Winn
R
24
5
9
5.38
26
16
97.0
97
58
14
60
80
Antoine Kelly
L
24
2
2
5.05
37
9
66.0
60
37
10
40
71
Grant Anderson
R
27
3
4
4.57
45
1
65.0
62
33
10
26
68
Kyle Cody
R
29
3
4
5.05
28
7
62.3
68
35
10
21
46
Dane Acker
R
25
1
1
5.40
18
18
58.3
57
35
9
32
51
Robby Ahlstrom
L
25
3
3
4.91
32
5
62.3
62
34
9
30
57
Jonathan Hernández
R
27
3
2
4.55
54
0
57.3
53
29
8
29
61
Grant Wolfram
L
27
4
4
4.88
33
4
55.3
53
30
8
29
56
Josh Dye
L
27
3
3
4.73
33
2
45.7
49
24
7
15
33
Kirby Yates
R
37
3
4
4.56
53
0
49.3
42
25
8
26
59
Nick Krauth
R
24
5
9
5.63
23
20
96.0
112
60
16
35
51
Ryan Garcia
R
26
3
7
5.67
21
21
79.3
80
50
13
45
69
Daniel Robert
R
29
1
3
5.06
27
1
37.3
36
21
6
20
38
Steven Jennings
R
25
3
4
4.58
30
0
53.0
53
27
8
16
42
Danny Duffy
L
35
2
3
5.53
21
5
42.3
42
26
7
27
40
Noah Bremer
R
28
2
4
5.63
17
10
48.0
55
30
8
21
32
Reid Birlingmair
R
27
3
4
5.68
20
9
57.0
61
36
10
31
45
Carson Coleman
R
26
2
2
4.97
34
0
41.7
36
23
6
23
49
Edwar Colina
R
27
2
4
5.62
22
5
41.7
44
26
7
22
35
Aidan Anderson
R
27
2
3
5.20
35
2
53.7
56
31
9
23
45
Diego Castillo
R
30
4
5
5.06
50
1
53.3
50
30
8
28
49
Fernery Ozuna
R
28
2
4
5.36
34
2
47.0
48
28
8
21
41
Scott Engler
R
27
1
1
5.52
22
1
29.3
30
18
5
17
27
Ian Kennedy
R
39
1
3
5.09
36
0
35.3
37
20
7
14
35
Andy Rodriguez
R
25
2
3
5.16
32
0
45.3
48
26
7
22
37
Florencio Serrano
R
24
1
2
5.48
20
1
44.3
51
27
7
18
26
Lucas Jacobsen
L
28
1
2
6.20
22
1
24.7
26
17
4
16
19
Triston Polley
L
27
3
5
5.44
36
2
51.3
54
31
8
27
40
Michael Brewer
R
25
2
3
5.66
19
0
35.0
37
22
6
20
27
Hever Bueno
R
29
1
3
5.93
23
0
30.3
31
20
5
23
28
Theo McDowell
R
25
2
3
5.97
28
0
34.7
35
23
6
27
32
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Jordan Montgomery
168.7
8.5
2.8
1.2
7.3%
22.3%
.297
114
4.05
88
3.0
Max Scherzer
135.7
9.9
2.4
1.5
6.5%
26.8%
.284
108
4.12
92
2.2
Nathan Eovaldi
131.0
8.2
2.7
1.2
7.1%
21.6%
.290
106
4.23
94
2.0
Jon Gray
131.3
9.0
2.9
1.2
7.7%
23.6%
.292
103
4.08
97
1.8
Jacob deGrom
65.3
13.1
2.1
1.2
5.8%
37.0%
.285
152
2.87
66
1.8
Tyler Mahle
118.0
9.1
3.2
1.3
8.5%
23.9%
.284
101
4.31
99
1.5
Dane Dunning
145.7
7.8
3.0
1.2
7.8%
20.1%
.301
96
4.49
104
1.5
Cody Bradford
112.3
7.6
2.3
1.4
6.1%
20.0%
.297
100
4.41
100
1.3
Andrew Heaney
117.0
9.2
3.2
1.5
8.4%
23.7%
.298
94
4.73
107
1.2
Robert Dugger
115.7
7.2
3.7
1.3
9.2%
18.2%
.302
90
4.88
112
0.9
Brock Burke
68.3
8.6
2.5
1.2
6.7%
23.0%
.282
119
3.99
84
0.9
Josh Stephan
91.3
7.5
2.9
1.3
7.5%
19.5%
.290
93
4.56
108
0.9
Avery Weems
71.0
8.6
3.3
1.4
8.4%
22.0%
.300
94
4.66
107
0.7
Aroldis Chapman
48.3
14.5
5.2
1.5
13.1%
36.6%
.301
112
3.98
89
0.6
Zak Kent
71.7
7.9
3.3
1.4
8.3%
20.2%
.300
90
4.71
112
0.6
Chase Lee
60.3
9.7
3.3
1.2
8.6%
25.3%
.300
101
4.12
99
0.5
Jake Latz
65.7
9.3
4.4
1.4
11.0%
23.4%
.298
94
4.72
106
0.5
Josh Sborz
56.3
10.5
3.5
1.3
8.9%
26.8%
.303
110
3.93
91
0.5
Tim Brennan
61.3
5.3
2.2
1.3
5.7%
13.6%
.292
88
5.06
114
0.4
Owen White
92.7
6.5
4.0
1.4
9.9%
16.2%
.289
84
5.29
119
0.4
Jack Leiter
83.7
9.0
5.1
1.4
12.5%
22.4%
.291
83
5.17
120
0.4
José Leclerc
57.0
10.9
4.7
1.3
12.1%
27.9%
.277
103
4.45
97
0.4
Yerry Rodríguez
62.7
9.2
4.2
1.3
10.5%
23.2%
.302
93
4.66
108
0.3
Matt Bush
34.0
9.5
3.7
1.3
9.5%
24.5%
.281
104
4.46
96
0.3
Seth Nordlin
81.7
5.5
3.2
1.3
8.0%
13.8%
.299
83
5.23
121
0.3
Marc Church
58.0
9.6
4.3
1.2
11.0%
24.4%
.294
98
4.51
103
0.2
James Marvel
81.0
5.3
3.6
1.3
8.8%
13.2%
.299
82
5.48
122
0.2
Cole Winn
97.0
7.4
5.6
1.3
13.4%
17.9%
.289
82
5.49
123
0.2
Antoine Kelly
66.0
9.7
5.5
1.4
13.4%
23.7%
.289
87
5.21
115
0.2
Grant Anderson
65.0
9.4
3.6
1.4
9.2%
24.1%
.297
96
4.59
104
0.2
Kyle Cody
62.3
6.6
3.0
1.4
7.6%
16.6%
.299
87
5.07
115
0.2
Dane Acker
58.3
7.9
4.9
1.4
12.2%
19.5%
.286
81
5.47
123
0.2
Robby Ahlstrom
62.3
8.2
4.3
1.3
10.7%
20.4%
.296
89
4.94
112
0.2
Jonathan Hernández
57.3
9.6
4.6
1.3
11.4%
23.9%
.296
96
4.62
104
0.1
Grant Wolfram
55.3
9.1
4.7
1.3
11.6%
22.4%
.298
90
4.85
111
0.1
Josh Dye
45.7
6.5
3.0
1.4
7.6%
16.7%
.296
93
4.85
108
0.1
Kirby Yates
49.3
10.8
4.7
1.5
12.0%
27.3%
.283
96
4.86
104
0.1
Nick Krauth
96.0
4.8
3.3
1.5
8.2%
11.9%
.295
78
5.73
128
0.0
Ryan Garcia
79.3
7.8
5.1
1.5
12.4%
19.1%
.291
77
5.46
129
0.0
Daniel Robert
37.3
9.2
4.8
1.4
12.0%
22.8%
.297
87
5.08
115
0.0
Steven Jennings
53.0
7.1
2.7
1.4
7.1%
18.6%
.285
92
4.71
109
0.0
Danny Duffy
42.3
8.5
5.7
1.5
13.8%
20.4%
.294
79
5.50
126
0.0
Noah Bremer
48.0
6.0
3.9
1.5
9.6%
14.6%
.303
78
5.65
128
-0.1
Reid Birlingmair
57.0
7.1
4.9
1.6
11.7%
17.0%
.295
77
5.80
129
-0.1
Carson Coleman
41.7
10.6
5.0
1.3
12.4%
26.3%
.291
88
5.01
113
-0.1
Edwar Colina
41.7
7.6
4.8
1.5
11.5%
18.3%
.298
78
5.56
128
-0.1
Aidan Anderson
53.7
7.5
3.9
1.5
9.5%
18.7%
.296
84
5.38
118
-0.1
Diego Castillo
53.3
8.3
4.7
1.4
11.8%
20.7%
.282
87
5.17
115
-0.1
Fernery Ozuna
47.0
7.9
4.0
1.5
10.0%
19.5%
.292
82
5.45
122
-0.2
Scott Engler
29.3
8.3
5.2
1.5
12.6%
20.0%
.298
79
5.47
126
-0.2
Ian Kennedy
35.3
8.9
3.6
1.8
8.9%
22.3%
.303
86
5.12
116
-0.2
Andy Rodriguez
45.3
7.3
4.4
1.4
10.5%
17.6%
.299
85
5.22
118
-0.3
Florencio Serrano
44.3
5.3
3.7
1.4
9.0%
13.0%
.299
80
5.49
125
-0.3
Lucas Jacobsen
24.7
6.9
5.8
1.5
13.7%
16.2%
.293
71
6.01
141
-0.3
Triston Polley
51.3
7.0
4.7
1.4
11.5%
17.1%
.295
81
5.53
124
-0.3
Michael Brewer
35.0
6.9
5.1
1.5
12.3%
16.7%
.292
78
5.83
129
-0.3
Hever Bueno
30.3
8.3
6.8
1.5
15.5%
18.9%
.299
74
5.93
135
-0.4
Theo McDowell
34.7
8.3
7.0
1.6
15.9%
18.8%
.293
74
6.17
136
-0.5
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Jordan Montgomery
.213
.260
.316
.257
.316
.430
4.0
1.8
3.35
4.56
Max Scherzer
.256
.321
.448
.209
.255
.378
3.2
1.1
3.29
5.00
Nathan Eovaldi
.254
.321
.430
.241
.289
.391
2.7
1.2
3.61
4.73
Jon Gray
.243
.317
.413
.238
.295
.383
2.6
0.8
3.73
4.96
Jacob deGrom
.207
.264
.388
.192
.233
.328
2.4
1.2
1.92
3.92
Tyler Mahle
.225
.312
.394
.247
.301
.417
2.3
0.6
3.73
5.15
Dane Dunning
.264
.334
.431
.254
.316
.421
2.3
0.6
4.09
5.15
Cody Bradford
.303
.350
.492
.243
.293
.412
2.0
0.6
3.85
5.06
Andrew Heaney
.252
.313
.395
.251
.326
.457
1.9
0.1
4.10
5.61
Robert Dugger
.276
.357
.463
.259
.320
.429
1.6
0.2
4.39
5.48
Brock Burke
.240
.293
.360
.235
.291
.406
1.4
0.2
2.99
4.66
Josh Stephan
.259
.333
.437
.250
.303
.420
1.5
0.2
4.08
5.54
Avery Weems
.225
.292
.300
.266
.341
.482
1.2
0.1
4.07
5.54
Aroldis Chapman
.167
.286
.271
.214
.320
.427
1.4
-0.4
2.50
6.24
Zak Kent
.254
.331
.429
.266
.324
.456
1.0
0.0
4.35
5.62
Chase Lee
.253
.342
.444
.231
.293
.366
1.1
-0.1
3.46
5.28
Jake Latz
.229
.309
.386
.254
.343
.439
1.0
-0.1
3.95
5.48
Josh Sborz
.255
.324
.449
.220
.290
.364
1.0
-0.2
3.15
5.29
Tim Brennan
.274
.331
.469
.276
.333
.433
0.8
0.1
4.53
5.52
Owen White
.272
.354
.462
.256
.336
.427
0.8
-0.2
4.83
5.85
Jack Leiter
.248
.358
.450
.240
.340
.406
1.0
-0.3
4.66
5.97
José Leclerc
.237
.345
.433
.197
.301
.333
1.1
-0.4
3.30
5.41
Yerry Rodríguez
.264
.354
.464
.237
.320
.378
0.9
-0.2
4.02
5.56
Matt Bush
.236
.323
.400
.227
.306
.413
0.7
-0.1
3.42
5.45
Seth Nordlin
.285
.362
.486
.274
.332
.435
0.7
-0.2
4.76
5.86
Marc Church
.242
.327
.414
.234
.329
.395
0.7
-0.3
3.85
5.39
James Marvel
.272
.343
.451
.289
.368
.470
0.6
-0.2
4.86
5.93
Cole Winn
.244
.360
.405
.263
.361
.446
0.8
-0.4
4.89
6.01
Antoine Kelly
.230
.333
.351
.239
.361
.433
0.8
-0.4
4.36
5.84
Grant Anderson
.278
.363
.491
.221
.296
.372
0.8
-0.4
3.79
5.38
Kyle Cody
.273
.336
.482
.271
.335
.436
0.6
-0.3
4.53
5.78
Dane Acker
.238
.341
.390
.260
.366
.463
0.5
-0.3
4.87
6.16
Robby Ahlstrom
.267
.349
.400
.247
.338
.435
0.7
-0.4
4.26
5.67
Jonathan Hernández
.245
.345
.441
.235
.324
.378
0.6
-0.5
3.92
5.55
Grant Wolfram
.197
.299
.288
.268
.360
.477
0.6
-0.4
4.16
5.67
Josh Dye
.230
.299
.377
.289
.341
.488
0.5
-0.2
4.12
5.53
Kirby Yates
.241
.364
.458
.212
.308
.365
0.7
-0.6
3.26
6.29
Nick Krauth
.288
.361
.476
.284
.351
.477
0.5
-0.5
5.15
6.11
Ryan Garcia
.270
.381
.475
.246
.330
.427
0.6
-0.6
5.08
6.40
Daniel Robert
.265
.359
.412
.234
.333
.455
0.3
-0.4
4.33
6.03
Steven Jennings
.255
.324
.394
.254
.306
.465
0.4
-0.4
3.85
5.22
Danny Duffy
.222
.317
.361
.262
.370
.469
0.4
-0.6
4.44
7.29
Noah Bremer
.291
.367
.488
.275
.355
.468
0.2
-0.4
5.16
6.20
Reid Birlingmair
.272
.368
.509
.263
.356
.421
0.3
-0.5
5.08
6.46
Carson Coleman
.219
.360
.411
.235
.347
.388
0.2
-0.6
4.28
6.01
Edwar Colina
.266
.370
.443
.264
.350
.471
0.2
-0.5
4.96
6.43
Aidan Anderson
.275
.368
.440
.254
.333
.467
0.2
-0.5
4.66
5.89
Diego Castillo
.253
.364
.446
.236
.326
.398
0.4
-0.7
4.35
6.06
Fernery Ozuna
.262
.361
.464
.255
.342
.441
0.2
-0.6
4.59
6.38
Scott Engler
.263
.373
.456
.254
.338
.458
0.1
-0.5
4.88
6.65
Ian Kennedy
.261
.329
.522
.264
.333
.444
0.2
-0.6
4.14
6.62
Andy Rodriguez
.277
.375
.446
.255
.327
.449
0.0
-0.6
4.67
5.76
Florencio Serrano
.298
.362
.500
.271
.343
.448
-0.1
-0.6
5.02
6.17
Lucas Jacobsen
.276
.382
.448
.261
.373
.464
-0.1
-0.6
5.54
7.49
Triston Polley
.250
.329
.375
.271
.372
.479
0.1
-0.7
4.70
6.18
Michael Brewer
.270
.387
.476
.263
.345
.461
-0.1
-0.6
5.03
6.43
Hever Bueno
.259
.385
.481
.258
.375
.439
-0.1
-0.7
5.22
7.03
Theo McDowell
.254
.405
.444
.257
.364
.459
-0.2
-0.8
5.23
7.00
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.