For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Tampa Bay Rays.
Batters
With the sudden collapse of the Cardinals, the Rays are arguably the holders of the crown in the solid-but-not-spectacular department. With one problematic exception, just looking at the depth chart, you see a whole bunch of twos and threes but no obvious MVP candidates, unless Yandy Díaz finds yet another extra gear in him. But there’s also almost nowhere on the diamond where you expect a huge collapse if forced to find an emergency fill-in. Manuel Margot can capably take any outfield job handily, and elsewhere, Curtis Mead, Vidal Bruján, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda can cover most anything needed outside of catcher.
It’s hard, however, to ignore the Wander Franco situation when discussing how good the Rays will be next year. The legal situation is something for the Dominican Republic to handle, but the Rays still have to do their baseball planning around it, and as of right now, they have an All-Star with MVP upside who may never play again due to some serious allegations in his home country. Four wins is a pretty big swing, and there isn’t really a suitable store-brand generic version of him that the Rays can come up with as a Plan B. That could be Carson Williams soon, but the start of 2024 seems to be a bit too quickly; his modest .202/.274/.366 projections in ZiPS is a whopping 60 points lower than his Steamer projection.
I expect the team to do its usual dollar store shopping and find another catcher, another candidate for shortstop, and maybe an extra bat for designated hitter, which looks to be the weakest spot in ZiPS. On that last point, ZiPS is definitely not bullish on Harold Ramírez repeating his 2023 numbers.
Pitchers
Losing Shane McClanahan for a year is brutal. The Rays lost more than their fair share of starting pitchers this season, but he was one of the key elements that made the injuries to Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen survivable. Now, though, McClanahan is out for 2024, Springs and Rasmussen are both likely to miss a large part of the season, and Baz’s exact return is very much up in the air.
Even if you’re very optimistic in relying on the health of Tyler Glasnow, he may not be back in Tampa next season. That means a lot of the Rays’ pitching fate is in the arms of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale, though ZiPS at least is bullish on both of them for ’24. Taj Bradley’s stint in the majors came with some real hiccups, but a lot of the problem is the home run rate, which is extremely volatile for pitchers. ZiPS at least thinks he will take a spot in the middle of the rotation at some point, and the Steamer projection is nearly identical. Maybe Tampa will fix Cal Quantrill or something!
ZiPS is usually exuberant about the Rays’ bullpen, but this time around, instead of the usual 10–12 pitchers on the depth chart projected to be above average, I’m only counting seven or eight. They still have a lot of interesting options that nobody has ever heard of, like Chris Gau and Cameron Leonard, but it’s actually sparser in that department than most seasons. I expect to see the Rays hand out NRIs to a larger-than-typical number of minor league FA relievers this spring. Adam Leverett is another name to remember, recently picked up from the Phillies in a quiet trade. Don’t be surprised at that platoon split projection; he’s had notable reverse splits in the minors due mainly to his best pitch being a lively changeup with some nice fade. If converted to full-time relief, ZiPS projects a 3.89 ERA/108 ERA+, making him potentially another useful player plucked from the Island of Misfit Toys.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Wander Franco
B
23
SS
493
446
67
122
25
6
15
64
41
61
21
7
Isaac Paredes
R
25
3B
562
486
67
117
26
1
26
87
60
99
1
1
Randy Arozarena
R
29
LF
628
545
88
144
30
3
22
83
63
152
21
10
Yandy Díaz
R
32
1B
550
478
72
137
27
0
15
65
65
80
1
1
Brandon Lowe
L
29
2B
487
427
67
102
22
1
24
73
50
129
6
1
Josh Lowe
L
26
RF
523
474
66
123
30
3
16
71
43
143
25
2
Dominic Keegan
R
23
C
447
399
44
90
18
2
10
50
37
114
1
1
Jonathan Aranda
L
26
2B
532
466
67
118
23
2
15
73
50
126
2
1
Jose Siri
R
28
CF
411
383
56
85
17
3
16
60
22
142
15
3
Kenny Piper
R
25
C
341
303
38
62
14
1
11
43
25
104
2
1
Curtis Mead
R
23
3B
408
366
46
91
25
1
9
49
32
83
3
2
Alex Jackson
R
28
C
259
235
29
51
13
1
11
38
16
87
0
1
Luke Raley
L
29
RF
387
339
51
80
15
2
15
53
27
119
10
2
Vidal Bruján
B
26
2B
427
387
56
93
19
3
8
45
33
85
21
12
Taylor Walls
B
27
2B
403
352
51
73
17
2
8
39
47
104
17
3
Austin Shenton
L
26
3B
504
444
60
100
29
1
14
66
52
154
0
1
Kameron Misner
L
26
CF
497
433
57
83
21
2
11
54
57
189
13
4
Carson Williams
R
21
SS
533
484
59
98
19
6
16
66
40
207
11
7
Junior Caminero
R
20
3B
526
488
61
121
14
3
19
75
30
120
4
3
Manuel Margot
R
29
CF
391
359
44
93
19
2
7
43
27
65
10
4
René Pinto
R
27
C
336
317
33
72
17
0
12
44
15
111
1
1
Tristan Gray
L
28
SS
475
436
50
88
18
2
17
60
30
165
1
2
Logan Driscoll
L
26
C
368
337
39
74
16
1
7
40
21
109
2
1
Francisco Mejía
B
28
C
286
268
32
66
17
2
7
34
11
63
0
1
Harold Ramírez
R
29
LF
429
399
46
111
22
1
9
56
19
75
4
3
Dru Baker
R
24
RF
470
429
56
99
14
5
8
53
30
129
24
3
Tanner Murray
R
24
2B
249
231
27
55
16
2
4
28
13
59
1
1
Jeffry Parra
R
26
C
193
173
16
37
9
0
3
22
14
53
0
1
Osleivis Basabe
R
23
SS
512
474
55
117
25
5
3
50
29
90
11
5
Chandler Simpson
L
23
CF
513
466
70
118
13
3
0
37
35
59
44
9
Greg Jones
B
26
CF
322
293
39
59
10
3
7
35
21
133
17
3
Ruben Cardenas
R
26
RF
493
450
56
101
17
3
15
59
36
147
5
7
Nick Dini
R
30
C
241
210
30
43
8
0
6
26
24
63
3
1
Bob Seymour
L
25
1B
368
334
42
76
14
1
11
46
28
124
2
1
Shane Sasaki
R
23
CF
336
306
43
71
14
2
5
36
25
98
12
3
Tristan Peters
L
24
LF
458
416
53
97
20
5
5
45
34
94
9
4
Ronny Simon
B
24
2B
516
473
57
101
21
3
11
53
34
128
15
6
Niko Hulsizer
R
27
LF
429
379
51
74
20
1
12
49
43
171
5
3
Billy Hamilton
B
33
CF
143
130
21
22
5
1
1
9
10
52
10
1
Raimel Tapia
L
30
RF
398
364
47
87
15
2
6
37
28
86
14
3
Erik Ostberg
L
28
C
192
177
18
36
7
1
4
19
13
62
1
1
Johan Lopez
R
23
SS
260
231
26
44
10
1
3
24
21
87
5
1
Matthew Dyer
R
25
LF
230
212
22
40
7
2
5
26
13
99
3
1
Willy Vasquez
R
22
3B
499
465
51
99
15
4
10
48
29
148
10
5
Alexander Ovalles
L
23
LF
325
288
36
60
11
2
5
31
30
93
4
2
Roberto Alvarez
R
24
DH
190
176
16
39
5
1
1
15
9
47
0
1
Evan Edwards
L
27
1B
386
342
33
65
10
2
11
43
37
150
6
1
Diego Infante
R
24
RF
437
405
50
93
17
2
10
49
26
146
9
4
Heriberto Hernandez
R
24
RF
471
411
52
84
18
1
12
52
47
165
4
2
Gionti Turner
R
23
2B
262
234
25
44
6
0
1
20
15
80
6
3
Mason Auer
R
23
CF
520
477
51
92
17
6
9
50
35
192
27
7
Blake Robertson
L
23
1B
359
326
38
67
12
2
5
36
28
120
1
1
Nick Schnell
L
24
RF
352
320
40
56
12
1
8
33
26
152
3
1
Jalen Battles
R
24
2B
349
325
34
63
6
1
4
27
17
119
4
6
Alejandro Pie
R
22
3B
171
156
17
23
4
0
1
13
9
80
5
1
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
Wander Franco
493
.274
.335
.457
123
.184
.289
5
3.6
.339
Isaac Paredes
562
.241
.336
.459
124
.218
.252
0
3.2
.343
Randy Arozarena
628
.264
.355
.451
128
.187
.329
-1
2.8
.349
Yandy Díaz
550
.287
.376
.437
131
.151
.319
1
2.7
.356
Brandon Lowe
487
.239
.326
.464
122
.225
.285
-1
2.6
.339
Josh Lowe
523
.259
.321
.437
113
.177
.340
5
2.3
.325
Dominic Keegan
447
.226
.298
.356
86
.130
.291
7
1.7
.288
Jonathan Aranda
532
.253
.336
.408
111
.155
.317
-9
1.4
.325
Jose Siri
411
.222
.268
.407
89
.185
.307
7
1.4
.289
Kenny Piper
341
.205
.287
.366
85
.162
.271
6
1.3
.288
Curtis Mead
408
.249
.316
.396
102
.148
.299
0
1.1
.310
Alex Jackson
259
.217
.286
.421
98
.204
.292
2
1.1
.303
Luke Raley
387
.236
.324
.425
111
.189
.317
-1
1.1
.327
Vidal Bruján
427
.240
.305
.367
91
.127
.289
2
0.9
.295
Taylor Walls
403
.207
.301
.335
81
.128
.271
3
0.9
.285
Austin Shenton
504
.225
.313
.390
99
.164
.312
-4
0.9
.308
Kameron Misner
497
.192
.290
.326
76
.134
.309
7
0.8
.277
Carson Williams
533
.202
.274
.366
80
.163
.314
2
0.8
.280
Junior Caminero
526
.248
.297
.406
98
.158
.292
-4
0.8
.303
Manuel Margot
391
.259
.313
.382
97
.123
.300
-3
0.7
.303
René Pinto
336
.227
.268
.394
86
.167
.309
0
0.6
.285
Tristan Gray
475
.202
.262
.369
77
.167
.280
2
0.5
.274
Logan Driscoll
368
.220
.277
.335
74
.116
.303
2
0.5
.270
Francisco Mejía
286
.246
.284
.403
93
.157
.298
-3
0.5
.295
Harold Ramírez
429
.278
.319
.406
105
.128
.324
-4
0.3
.314
Dru Baker
470
.231
.294
.343
81
.112
.312
4
0.3
.282
Tanner Murray
249
.238
.289
.377
88
.139
.304
0
0.3
.290
Jeffry Parra
193
.214
.295
.318
75
.104
.291
0
0.2
.277
Osleivis Basabe
512
.247
.294
.340
80
.093
.299
-3
0.2
.279
Chandler Simpson
513
.253
.308
.294
73
.041
.290
-3
0.0
.271
Greg Jones
322
.201
.268
.328
69
.126
.340
1
0.0
.264
Ruben Cardenas
493
.224
.286
.376
87
.151
.299
3
-0.1
.288
Nick Dini
241
.205
.299
.329
79
.124
.262
-5
-0.1
.282
Bob Seymour
368
.228
.293
.374
89
.147
.327
1
-0.1
.292
Shane Sasaki
336
.232
.295
.340
81
.108
.325
-5
-0.2
.281
Tristan Peters
458
.233
.297
.341
82
.108
.290
2
-0.2
.282
Ronny Simon
516
.214
.268
.340
72
.127
.269
-1
-0.4
.267
Niko Hulsizer
429
.195
.284
.348
79
.153
.316
2
-0.4
.279
Billy Hamilton
143
.169
.227
.246
35
.077
.273
2
-0.4
.213
Raimel Tapia
398
.239
.293
.341
80
.102
.298
-2
-0.5
.279
Erik Ostberg
192
.203
.260
.322
65
.119
.288
-5
-0.6
.257
Johan Lopez
260
.190
.270
.281
58
.091
.291
-4
-0.7
.250
Matthew Dyer
230
.189
.248
.311
58
.123
.324
2
-0.7
.247
Willy Vasquez
499
.213
.261
.327
66
.114
.290
0
-0.8
.258
Alexander Ovalles
325
.208
.288
.313
72
.104
.289
-1
-0.8
.269
Roberto Alvarez
190
.222
.274
.278
58
.057
.297
0
-0.8
.249
Evan Edwards
386
.190
.277
.327
72
.137
.298
0
-0.9
.270
Diego Infante
437
.230
.279
.356
79
.126
.333
-4
-1.1
.276
Heriberto Hernandez
471
.204
.293
.341
80
.136
.308
-6
-1.1
.282
Gionti Turner
262
.188
.257
.226
40
.038
.281
-1
-1.2
.224
Mason Auer
520
.193
.256
.310
61
.117
.301
-4
-1.2
.250
Blake Robertson
359
.206
.279
.301
66
.095
.308
-1
-1.2
.261
Nick Schnell
352
.175
.237
.294
50
.119
.300
3
-1.4
.235
Jalen Battles
349
.194
.242
.255
42
.062
.292
1
-1.5
.224
Alejandro Pie
171
.147
.216
.192
18
.045
.293
-4
-1.5
.192
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Wander Franco
.296
.363
.515
146
5.0
.243
.310
.400
100
2.2
Isaac Paredes
.263
.363
.509
143
4.5
.220
.315
.403
104
1.9
Randy Arozarena
.288
.378
.504
147
4.2
.239
.330
.401
109
1.4
Yandy Díaz
.313
.401
.477
148
3.8
.261
.348
.400
114
1.5
Brandon Lowe
.260
.350
.530
144
3.8
.218
.305
.414
102
1.5
Josh Lowe
.286
.349
.483
133
3.6
.233
.296
.387
94
0.9
Dominic Keegan
.251
.320
.403
105
2.7
.201
.272
.318
70
0.9
Jonathan Aranda
.276
.360
.456
129
2.5
.228
.310
.362
93
0.2
Jose Siri
.247
.291
.464
110
2.5
.196
.241
.360
69
0.3
Kenny Piper
.235
.319
.422
104
2.2
.179
.261
.317
63
0.4
Curtis Mead
.276
.341
.442
121
2.1
.229
.296
.351
85
0.3
Alex Jackson
.244
.313
.488
120
1.7
.186
.253
.355
71
0.2
Luke Raley
.263
.347
.478
131
1.9
.210
.299
.379
93
0.2
Vidal Bruján
.264
.331
.414
109
1.9
.216
.280
.333
74
0.0
Taylor Walls
.233
.325
.387
100
1.9
.182
.275
.294
64
0.0
Austin Shenton
.249
.339
.438
118
2.0
.202
.292
.341
81
-0.2
Kameron Misner
.217
.311
.372
93
1.8
.166
.264
.283
57
-0.3
Carson Williams
.227
.306
.426
103
2.3
.179
.252
.316
62
-0.5
Junior Caminero
.273
.324
.463
120
2.3
.223
.274
.354
80
-0.5
Manuel Margot
.286
.339
.424
114
1.5
.234
.288
.341
79
-0.2
René Pinto
.257
.296
.446
107
1.4
.198
.240
.341
66
-0.3
Tristan Gray
.227
.283
.421
97
1.5
.179
.238
.324
61
-0.6
Logan Driscoll
.247
.305
.375
91
1.2
.191
.256
.290
55
-0.4
Francisco Mejía
.274
.314
.461
117
1.3
.220
.258
.352
73
-0.2
Harold Ramírez
.307
.348
.445
124
1.4
.249
.292
.362
86
-0.6
Dru Baker
.258
.318
.385
99
1.3
.208
.270
.303
66
-0.6
Tanner Murray
.264
.316
.428
109
0.9
.213
.268
.334
70
-0.3
Jeffry Parra
.241
.324
.364
95
0.7
.181
.266
.270
54
-0.3
Osleivis Basabe
.274
.322
.385
101
1.6
.223
.270
.306
65
-0.8
Chandler Simpson
.280
.336
.328
90
1.1
.226
.282
.265
58
-1.1
Greg Jones
.228
.296
.381
89
0.8
.171
.240
.284
50
-0.8
Ruben Cardenas
.249
.310
.419
106
1.0
.200
.256
.326
66
-1.4
Nick Dini
.235
.330
.386
101
0.6
.178
.268
.278
58
-0.7
Bob Seymour
.254
.322
.426
108
0.7
.199
.265
.325
66
-1.1
Shane Sasaki
.262
.320
.388
101
0.6
.208
.266
.304
62
-1.0
Tristan Peters
.256
.320
.378
97
0.7
.209
.271
.309
66
-1.2
Ronny Simon
.240
.296
.386
92
0.9
.191
.245
.302
55
-1.5
Niko Hulsizer
.219
.311
.403
99
0.6
.167
.256
.291
58
-1.6
Billy Hamilton
.201
.258
.297
58
0.0
.145
.198
.208
17
-0.8
Raimel Tapia
.265
.319
.386
98
0.4
.213
.266
.297
62
-1.5
Erik Ostberg
.237
.293
.378
89
0.0
.174
.229
.274
44
-1.1
Johan Lopez
.220
.304
.339
81
0.0
.164
.242
.236
39
-1.3
Matthew Dyer
.219
.279
.370
82
-0.1
.162
.222
.261
39
-1.3
Willy Vasquez
.236
.287
.366
84
0.3
.188
.239
.284
51
-1.8
Alexander Ovalles
.235
.314
.355
90
-0.1
.186
.264
.271
56
-1.4
Roberto Alvarez
.247
.299
.318
76
-0.4
.195
.248
.246
42
-1.2
Evan Edwards
.217
.303
.375
91
0.0
.163
.250
.275
51
-1.9
Diego Infante
.256
.302
.398
97
-0.1
.205
.249
.312
60
-2.1
Heriberto Hernandez
.227
.317
.382
96
-0.2
.181
.264
.297
61
-2.2
Gionti Turner
.219
.283
.262
56
-0.7
.163
.229
.196
23
-1.7
Mason Auer
.218
.277
.353
79
0.0
.171
.235
.266
46
-2.2
Blake Robertson
.227
.303
.342
81
-0.6
.179
.255
.263
47
-2.0
Nick Schnell
.204
.263
.341
70
-0.6
.150
.212
.248
33
-2.2
Jalen Battles
.218
.269
.290
57
-0.8
.169
.218
.225
27
-2.1
Alejandro Pie
.179
.248
.237
38
-1.1
.123
.191
.157
1
-1.9
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Wander Franco
.278
.344
.465
.272
.330
.454
Isaac Paredes
.251
.352
.470
.234
.327
.452
Randy Arozarena
.276
.371
.475
.258
.347
.440
Yandy Díaz
.292
.388
.458
.284
.370
.426
Brandon Lowe
.229
.309
.440
.242
.332
.472
Josh Lowe
.248
.314
.418
.265
.325
.445
Dominic Keegan
.231
.307
.374
.222
.292
.345
Jonathan Aranda
.242
.328
.388
.259
.341
.419
Jose Siri
.225
.276
.404
.220
.263
.409
Kenny Piper
.209
.292
.383
.202
.284
.356
Curtis Mead
.255
.328
.412
.244
.306
.383
Alex Jackson
.222
.294
.444
.213
.280
.404
Luke Raley
.232
.330
.414
.238
.321
.429
Vidal Bruján
.238
.310
.369
.242
.301
.365
Taylor Walls
.211
.310
.350
.205
.296
.328
Austin Shenton
.215
.302
.356
.231
.319
.407
Kameron Misner
.179
.275
.314
.199
.299
.332
Carson Williams
.201
.276
.370
.203
.273
.363
Junior Caminero
.255
.312
.410
.243
.287
.403
Manuel Margot
.272
.328
.392
.252
.304
.376
René Pinto
.231
.276
.392
.224
.261
.397
Tristan Gray
.194
.256
.352
.207
.265
.380
Logan Driscoll
.207
.270
.306
.226
.280
.350
Francisco Mejía
.256
.292
.411
.242
.280
.399
Harold Ramírez
.289
.333
.408
.272
.312
.405
Dru Baker
.231
.297
.344
.230
.293
.342
Tanner Murray
.250
.301
.406
.230
.281
.356
Jeffry Parra
.222
.309
.319
.208
.286
.317
Osleivis Basabe
.250
.302
.351
.244
.288
.331
Chandler Simpson
.240
.298
.281
.258
.311
.299
Greg Jones
.202
.272
.323
.201
.265
.331
Ruben Cardenas
.224
.290
.388
.225
.283
.365
Nick Dini
.207
.302
.348
.203
.296
.314
Bob Seymour
.214
.284
.347
.233
.297
.386
Shane Sasaki
.230
.301
.344
.234
.290
.337
Tristan Peters
.224
.286
.333
.238
.303
.346
Ronny Simon
.207
.268
.324
.218
.269
.351
Niko Hulsizer
.204
.302
.359
.189
.270
.340
Billy Hamilton
.171
.227
.220
.169
.227
.258
Raimel Tapia
.231
.276
.297
.242
.299
.355
Erik Ostberg
.190
.242
.276
.210
.269
.345
Johan Lopez
.189
.275
.283
.192
.266
.280
Matthew Dyer
.192
.252
.303
.186
.244
.319
Willy Vasquez
.219
.275
.343
.209
.252
.317
Alexander Ovalles
.205
.282
.308
.211
.292
.316
Roberto Alvarez
.232
.284
.280
.213
.265
.277
Evan Edwards
.183
.268
.317
.194
.283
.333
Diego Infante
.232
.292
.351
.227
.268
.359
Heriberto Hernandez
.206
.303
.349
.203
.286
.335
Gionti Turner
.188
.257
.219
.188
.257
.232
Mason Auer
.196
.263
.309
.191
.251
.311
Blake Robertson
.196
.267
.283
.209
.283
.308
Nick Schnell
.169
.227
.270
.177
.241
.303
Jalen Battles
.195
.250
.236
.193
.237
.267
Alejandro Pie
.156
.217
.188
.141
.216
.196
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Shane McClanahan
L
27
11
5
3.13
24
24
135.0
112
47
15
39
147
Zach Eflin
R
30
12
7
3.38
27
26
146.7
136
55
16
24
143
Tyler Glasnow
R
30
10
5
3.25
22
22
119.0
93
43
14
38
151
Jeffrey Springs
L
31
6
4
3.31
27
15
89.7
76
33
12
25
108
Drew Rasmussen
R
28
7
4
3.28
22
17
90.7
78
33
8
25
87
Aaron Civale
R
29
6
6
3.94
23
23
118.7
108
52
15
32
111
Taj Bradley
R
23
9
8
4.18
31
29
137.7
125
64
20
48
140
Anthony Molina
R
22
6
6
4.31
27
26
123.3
132
59
14
38
79
Mason Montgomery
L
24
5
5
4.30
27
27
115.0
108
55
14
49
105
Pete Fairbanks
R
30
5
2
3.00
53
1
48.0
35
16
4
19
69
Jacob Lopez
L
26
4
4
4.31
26
21
96.0
89
46
12
41
95
Cooper Criswell
R
27
5
5
4.34
26
15
103.7
107
50
13
25
81
Zack Littell
R
28
5
3
3.86
36
10
81.7
78
35
11
18
67
Nathan Wiles
R
25
5
4
4.44
25
21
97.3
104
48
14
21
66
Brendan McKay
L
28
4
3
4.23
19
17
72.3
70
34
11
23
73
Logan Workman
R
25
4
4
4.31
20
19
79.3
79
38
10
25
65
Shane Baz
R
25
3
3
4.11
15
14
61.3
55
28
8
22
66
Sean Hunley
R
24
6
6
4.65
26
22
102.7
108
53
15
29
67
Robert Stephenson
R
31
4
2
3.23
58
0
53.0
41
19
7
17
69
Colin Poche
L
30
8
5
3.52
66
0
61.3
50
24
7
23
66
Victor Castaneda
R
25
5
4
4.50
21
16
84.0
82
42
11
38
76
Cole Wilcox
R
24
6
6
4.63
23
23
93.3
96
48
13
33
69
Patrick Wicklander
L
24
4
5
4.66
26
16
96.7
101
50
14
33
73
Kevin Kelly
R
26
4
3
3.61
52
0
62.3
55
25
5
16
57
Jason Adam
R
32
4
2
3.48
56
0
54.3
40
21
6
20
66
Shawn Armstrong
R
33
2
1
3.67
45
4
54.0
50
22
6
16
57
Andrew Kittredge
R
34
4
3
3.50
38
2
43.7
42
17
5
9
37
Tyler Alexander
L
29
4
5
4.39
26
9
69.7
69
34
11
17
60
Trevor Brigden
R
28
4
4
4.04
39
2
64.7
59
29
8
26
66
Ian Seymour
L
25
1
2
4.47
18
18
56.3
52
28
8
26
57
Adam Leverett
R
25
4
4
4.48
30
10
66.3
66
33
8
27
51
Cameron Leonard
R
24
4
3
3.67
29
0
49.0
48
20
5
13
41
Garrett Cleavinger
L
30
2
2
3.60
35
1
40.0
29
16
5
21
56
Chris Devenski
R
33
4
3
4.05
42
4
46.7
45
21
7
12
46
Elvin Rodriguez
R
26
4
6
4.93
18
16
80.3
81
44
13
32
70
Ryan Burr
R
30
3
2
3.79
35
1
40.3
38
17
4
14
33
Erasmo Ramirez
R
34
3
4
4.28
38
3
69.3
73
33
9
17
54
Chris Gau
R
27
4
3
4.25
37
2
48.7
47
23
7
18
47
Keyshawn Askew
L
24
6
6
4.83
30
8
82.0
74
44
11
40
81
John Doxakis
L
25
5
5
4.82
29
8
84.0
85
45
11
37
64
Cole Sulser
R
34
3
3
4.30
34
2
37.7
35
18
5
16
39
Trevor Kelley
R
31
2
2
4.47
38
4
46.3
46
23
6
17
38
Jake Diekman
L
37
2
2
4.13
55
0
48.0
39
22
5
32
57
Antonio Jimenez
L
23
4
6
4.90
31
7
79.0
80
43
12
37
64
Victor Munoz
R
23
6
8
5.09
24
10
76.0
82
43
10
28
44
Sean Harney
R
25
2
2
4.96
28
12
65.3
67
36
10
25
49
Colby White
R
25
2
2
4.50
33
3
34.0
30
17
5
18
39
Jack Snyder
R
25
4
3
4.18
30
0
47.3
48
22
6
16
40
Calvin Faucher
R
28
2
3
4.70
32
4
44.0
43
23
6
24
45
Franklin Dacosta
L
24
2
2
4.81
17
3
43.0
43
23
6
19
35
Justin Sterner
R
27
4
3
4.44
33
0
50.7
47
25
7
21
52
Enmanuel Mejia
R
25
3
4
4.50
39
1
48.0
44
24
6
27
48
Jose A. Lopez
L
25
4
4
4.86
29
4
46.3
44
25
6
29
46
Carlos Garcia
R
25
4
4
4.81
34
2
63.7
60
34
8
35
58
Antonio Menendez
R
25
1
2
4.76
35
1
51.0
51
27
6
25
38
Braden Bristo
R
29
2
3
4.78
40
1
52.7
49
28
7
30
51
Javy Guerra
R
28
1
2
4.73
47
1
51.3
47
27
5
29
43
Jeff Belge
L
26
3
3
4.74
35
0
43.7
39
23
6
29
47
Manuel Rodriguez
R
18
3
4
5.48
14
5
44.3
48
27
9
13
29
Graham Spraker
R
29
2
4
5.44
24
5
44.7
42
27
8
31
46
Nelson Alvarez
R
26
4
5
4.87
37
0
44.3
40
24
6
26
46
Alfredo Zarraga
R
23
2
2
4.78
39
0
58.3
57
31
9
29
53
Evan Reifert
R
25
2
3
5.30
27
0
35.7
29
21
5
30
45
Graeme Stinson
L
26
3
4
5.72
29
2
45.7
45
29
7
27
39
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Shane McClanahan
135.0
9.8
2.6
1.0
7.1%
26.6%
.280
134
3.43
75
3.3
Zach Eflin
146.7
8.8
1.5
1.0
4.1%
24.2%
.295
124
3.30
80
3.1
Tyler Glasnow
119.0
11.4
2.9
1.1
7.7%
30.7%
.284
129
3.20
77
2.8
Jeffrey Springs
89.7
10.8
2.5
1.2
6.8%
29.4%
.291
127
3.46
79
2.1
Drew Rasmussen
90.7
8.6
2.5
0.8
6.7%
23.3%
.281
128
3.38
78
2.0
Aaron Civale
118.7
8.4
2.4
1.1
6.5%
22.6%
.282
106
3.99
94
1.9
Taj Bradley
137.7
9.2
3.1
1.3
8.2%
24.0%
.285
100
4.24
100
1.8
Anthony Molina
123.3
5.8
2.8
1.0
7.1%
14.7%
.296
98
4.42
103
1.5
Mason Montgomery
115.0
8.2
3.8
1.1
9.8%
21.1%
.288
98
4.39
103
1.4
Pete Fairbanks
48.0
12.9
3.6
0.8
9.5%
34.5%
.301
140
2.78
71
1.1
Jacob Lopez
96.0
8.9
3.8
1.1
9.9%
22.9%
.293
97
4.43
103
1.1
Cooper Criswell
103.7
7.0
2.2
1.1
5.7%
18.4%
.297
97
4.36
103
1.1
Zack Littell
81.7
7.4
2.0
1.2
5.3%
19.8%
.280
109
4.14
92
1.1
Nathan Wiles
97.3
6.1
1.9
1.3
5.1%
15.9%
.292
95
4.48
106
1.0
Brendan McKay
72.3
9.1
2.9
1.4
7.5%
23.7%
.298
99
4.25
101
1.0
Logan Workman
79.3
7.4
2.8
1.1
7.4%
19.2%
.292
97
4.35
103
1.0
Shane Baz
61.3
9.7
3.2
1.2
8.4%
25.2%
.292
102
4.07
98
0.9
Sean Hunley
102.7
5.9
2.5
1.3
6.6%
15.3%
.285
90
4.96
111
0.9
Robert Stephenson
53.0
11.7
2.9
1.2
7.8%
31.7%
.281
130
3.39
77
0.8
Colin Poche
61.3
9.7
3.4
1.0
9.0%
25.8%
.274
119
3.81
84
0.8
Victor Castaneda
84.0
8.1
4.1
1.2
10.3%
20.6%
.295
93
4.61
107
0.8
Cole Wilcox
93.3
6.7
3.2
1.3
8.1%
17.0%
.289
91
4.87
110
0.8
Patrick Wicklander
96.7
6.8
3.1
1.3
7.8%
17.3%
.293
90
4.81
111
0.8
Kevin Kelly
62.3
8.2
2.3
0.7
6.3%
22.3%
.284
116
3.58
86
0.8
Jason Adam
54.3
10.9
3.3
1.0
9.0%
29.7%
.266
121
3.75
83
0.7
Shawn Armstrong
54.0
9.5
2.7
1.0
7.1%
25.3%
.303
115
3.64
87
0.7
Andrew Kittredge
43.7
7.6
1.9
1.0
5.0%
20.4%
.289
120
3.80
83
0.6
Tyler Alexander
69.7
7.8
2.2
1.4
5.8%
20.6%
.287
96
4.40
105
0.6
Trevor Brigden
64.7
9.2
3.6
1.1
9.4%
23.9%
.291
104
4.17
96
0.5
Ian Seymour
56.3
9.1
4.2
1.3
10.6%
23.3%
.289
94
4.68
107
0.5
Adam Leverett
66.3
6.9
3.7
1.1
9.3%
17.5%
.289
94
4.78
107
0.5
Cameron Leonard
49.0
7.5
2.4
0.9
6.3%
19.7%
.297
114
3.70
87
0.5
Garrett Cleavinger
40.0
12.6
4.7
1.1
12.4%
32.9%
.279
117
3.88
86
0.5
Chris Devenski
46.7
8.9
2.3
1.4
6.2%
23.6%
.295
104
4.13
96
0.5
Elvin Rodriguez
80.3
7.8
3.6
1.5
9.1%
19.9%
.292
85
5.00
117
0.4
Ryan Burr
40.3
7.4
3.1
0.9
8.1%
19.1%
.286
111
3.95
90
0.4
Erasmo Ramirez
69.3
7.0
2.2
1.2
5.7%
18.2%
.300
98
4.29
102
0.3
Chris Gau
48.7
8.7
3.3
1.3
8.5%
22.3%
.294
99
4.43
101
0.3
Keyshawn Askew
82.0
8.9
4.4
1.2
11.1%
22.4%
.284
87
4.96
115
0.3
John Doxakis
84.0
6.9
4.0
1.2
9.9%
17.2%
.289
87
5.08
115
0.3
Cole Sulser
37.7
9.3
3.8
1.2
9.8%
23.9%
.297
98
4.26
102
0.2
Trevor Kelley
46.3
7.4
3.3
1.2
8.5%
19.0%
.290
94
4.53
106
0.2
Jake Diekman
48.0
10.7
6.0
0.9
14.7%
26.3%
.288
102
4.48
98
0.2
Antonio Jimenez
79.0
7.3
4.2
1.4
10.5%
18.2%
.289
86
5.17
117
0.2
Victor Munoz
76.0
5.2
3.3
1.2
8.3%
13.0%
.288
82
5.15
121
0.2
Sean Harney
65.3
6.8
3.4
1.4
8.8%
17.2%
.286
85
5.21
118
0.2
Colby White
34.0
10.3
4.8
1.3
11.8%
25.7%
.291
93
4.64
107
0.2
Jack Snyder
47.3
7.6
3.0
1.1
7.8%
19.5%
.298
100
4.29
100
0.1
Calvin Faucher
44.0
9.2
4.9
1.2
11.9%
22.4%
.306
89
4.69
112
0.1
Franklin Dacosta
43.0
7.3
4.0
1.3
10.0%
18.4%
.289
87
4.98
115
0.1
Justin Sterner
50.7
9.2
3.7
1.2
9.4%
23.3%
.292
95
4.42
106
0.1
Enmanuel Mejia
48.0
9.0
5.1
1.1
12.3%
21.9%
.290
93
4.69
107
0.1
Jose A. Lopez
46.3
8.9
5.6
1.2
13.7%
21.7%
.297
86
5.09
116
0.1
Carlos Garcia
63.7
8.2
4.9
1.1
12.3%
20.4%
.289
87
4.95
114
0.0
Antonio Menendez
51.0
6.7
4.4
1.1
10.9%
16.5%
.288
88
5.00
113
-0.1
Braden Bristo
52.7
8.7
5.1
1.2
12.7%
21.6%
.290
88
4.93
114
-0.1
Javy Guerra
51.3
7.5
5.1
0.9
12.6%
18.7%
.282
89
4.83
113
-0.1
Jeff Belge
43.7
9.7
6.0
1.2
14.4%
23.3%
.289
89
4.95
113
-0.1
Manuel Rodriguez
44.3
5.9
2.6
1.8
6.7%
15.0%
.281
77
5.53
131
-0.2
Graham Spraker
44.7
9.3
6.2
1.6
14.9%
22.1%
.286
77
5.81
130
-0.2
Nelson Alvarez
44.3
9.3
5.3
1.2
12.7%
22.4%
.288
86
5.04
116
-0.2
Alfredo Zarraga
58.3
8.2
4.5
1.4
11.0%
20.1%
.289
88
5.09
114
-0.2
Evan Reifert
35.7
11.4
7.6
1.3
17.4%
26.2%
.286
79
5.58
126
-0.3
Graeme Stinson
45.7
7.7
5.3
1.4
12.4%
17.9%
.286
73
5.97
136
-0.5
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Shane McClanahan
.234
.283
.360
.217
.275
.358
4.1
2.4
2.71
3.60
Zach Eflin
.250
.293
.422
.232
.257
.346
4.0
2.3
2.90
3.92
Tyler Glasnow
.210
.274
.350
.210
.268
.358
3.6
1.7
2.63
4.05
Jeffrey Springs
.242
.296
.384
.216
.269
.378
2.8
1.2
2.61
4.21
Drew Rasmussen
.227
.291
.327
.227
.273
.361
2.7
1.4
2.65
3.91
Aaron Civale
.225
.289
.376
.248
.298
.403
2.6
1.1
3.46
4.59
Taj Bradley
.249
.327
.430
.225
.280
.382
2.9
0.8
3.52
4.85
Anthony Molina
.274
.336
.439
.263
.307
.404
2.1
0.7
3.89
4.84
Mason Montgomery
.226
.307
.338
.250
.328
.420
2.1
0.5
3.83
4.96
Pete Fairbanks
.205
.290
.325
.194
.276
.312
1.7
0.4
2.07
4.66
Jacob Lopez
.250
.323
.379
.236
.329
.406
1.8
0.4
3.79
5.05
Cooper Criswell
.280
.338
.476
.244
.302
.371
1.8
0.5
3.81
4.89
Zack Littell
.256
.310
.421
.239
.277
.402
1.6
0.5
3.32
4.56
Nathan Wiles
.270
.311
.438
.267
.304
.443
1.6
0.4
3.93
5.09
Brendan McKay
.235
.290
.388
.254
.315
.437
1.5
0.3
3.67
5.09
Logan Workman
.274
.343
.433
.234
.287
.396
1.4
0.4
3.80
4.89
Shane Baz
.229
.303
.394
.238
.312
.389
1.4
0.4
3.46
4.73
Sean Hunley
.275
.335
.466
.255
.316
.412
1.4
0.1
4.19
5.27
Robert Stephenson
.209
.280
.363
.208
.267
.368
1.4
0.2
2.46
4.32
Colin Poche
.200
.278
.329
.225
.298
.375
1.5
0.1
2.83
4.32
Victor Castaneda
.266
.350
.430
.235
.313
.400
1.3
0.2
4.04
5.09
Cole Wilcox
.268
.341
.481
.253
.319
.382
1.3
0.2
4.17
5.18
Patrick Wicklander
.246
.314
.389
.271
.333
.461
1.3
0.1
4.17
5.28
Kevin Kelly
.257
.325
.410
.211
.274
.301
1.3
0.2
2.97
4.39
Jason Adam
.187
.295
.319
.211
.293
.358
1.3
0.0
2.72
4.81
Shawn Armstrong
.233
.302
.360
.246
.301
.402
1.2
0.2
2.85
4.67
Andrew Kittredge
.239
.301
.403
.252
.284
.388
1.0
0.2
2.92
4.36
Tyler Alexander
.225
.276
.352
.262
.307
.460
1.1
0.0
3.71
5.27
Trevor Brigden
.239
.320
.416
.235
.309
.368
1.1
-0.1
3.36
4.94
Ian Seymour
.235
.321
.324
.242
.333
.450
0.9
0.0
3.94
5.19
Adam Leverett
.246
.336
.369
.261
.335
.435
0.9
0.0
4.04
5.09
Cameron Leonard
.258
.310
.387
.245
.286
.388
0.9
0.1
3.02
4.39
Garrett Cleavinger
.184
.298
.347
.204
.313
.357
0.9
-0.1
2.81
4.70
Chris Devenski
.239
.295
.409
.255
.304
.436
0.9
-0.1
3.32
5.03
Elvin Rodriguez
.261
.342
.444
.253
.325
.448
1.0
-0.2
4.40
5.54
Ryan Burr
.254
.329
.423
.235
.283
.353
0.7
0.0
3.22
4.65
Erasmo Ramirez
.269
.324
.415
.260
.306
.432
0.8
-0.1
3.70
4.87
Chris Gau
.255
.327
.426
.240
.308
.406
0.8
-0.1
3.52
4.99
Keyshawn Askew
.208
.330
.292
.248
.350
.450
1.0
-0.4
4.23
5.51
John Doxakis
.241
.323
.384
.265
.356
.443
0.8
-0.3
4.31
5.43
Cole Sulser
.229
.299
.386
.253
.337
.427
0.6
-0.2
3.54
5.46
Trevor Kelley
.228
.307
.392
.272
.333
.427
0.6
-0.2
3.82
5.24
Jake Diekman
.231
.359
.308
.209
.338
.383
0.8
-0.5
3.15
5.77
Antonio Jimenez
.242
.330
.389
.264
.347
.458
0.7
-0.4
4.35
5.53
Victor Munoz
.289
.363
.493
.253
.320
.389
0.6
-0.3
4.61
5.64
Sean Harney
.246
.338
.429
.273
.340
.447
0.6
-0.2
4.40
5.51
Colby White
.234
.347
.406
.227
.316
.409
0.4
-0.2
3.81
5.36
Jack Snyder
.264
.330
.440
.250
.305
.396
0.5
-0.2
3.51
4.85
Calvin Faucher
.263
.364
.474
.240
.327
.375
0.5
-0.3
4.01
5.66
Franklin Dacosta
.226
.317
.321
.267
.348
.474
0.4
-0.3
4.25
5.49
Justin Sterner
.253
.340
.462
.229
.305
.362
0.5
-0.4
3.70
5.19
Enmanuel Mejia
.259
.370
.447
.220
.313
.350
0.4
-0.4
3.98
5.29
Jose A. Lopez
.246
.377
.368
.244
.352
.423
0.4
-0.4
4.24
5.75
Carlos Garcia
.261
.369
.429
.228
.327
.370
0.4
-0.6
4.22
5.50
Antonio Menendez
.263
.360
.463
.248
.333
.362
0.2
-0.4
4.31
5.33
Braden Bristo
.229
.336
.365
.252
.352
.439
0.4
-0.6
4.07
5.69
Javy Guerra
.258
.356
.438
.222
.341
.324
0.2
-0.5
4.21
5.49
Jeff Belge
.232
.348
.321
.234
.348
.441
0.3
-0.5
3.99
5.47
Manuel Rodriguez
.276
.330
.529
.267
.316
.456
0.2
-0.4
4.84
6.01
Graham Spraker
.247
.384
.469
.239
.349
.424
0.2
-0.7
4.71
6.51
Nelson Alvarez
.244
.366
.385
.228
.339
.413
0.2
-0.6
4.30
5.67
Alfredo Zarraga
.255
.341
.436
.246
.338
.424
0.2
-0.8
4.20
5.54
Evan Reifert
.233
.410
.383
.203
.355
.392
0.0
-0.7
4.45
6.29
Graeme Stinson
.203
.347
.305
.275
.393
.492
-0.1
-0.9
5.03
6.57
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.