For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the San Francisco Giants.
Batters
If they don’t make any other moves this offseason, the Giants would enter 2024 without any serious holes in the lineup and pretty good depth at most spots. Problem is, they would also enter 2024 without a whole lot of ceiling in the offense. It’s certainly not from lack of trying; the Giants were within striking range of landing Aaron Judge last winter and Shohei Ohtani this one. But the bottom line is that they’re short on impact offensive talent. While Jung Hoo Lee and Patrick Bailey have the best overall projections, a lot of that is defensive value. Wilmer Flores‘ .265/.337/.446 triple-slash is the best on the roster, and even at Oracle Park, that’s rather underwhelming. And the awkward thing is that there really aren’t players available in free agency who can flip this script. The Giants can only upgrade the offense with a legitimate star, yet the only way left to get one is to trade for one.
The plus side is the floor is probably relatively high, as ZiPS sees a lot of adequacy in the current projected bench and sees many of the players who would currently be in Triple-A as solid role players, such as Casey Schmitt, David Villar, Wade Meckler, and Tyler Fitzgerald. The wheels probably won’t completely come off the apple cart, it’s just that the apple cart itself isn’t that fast.
It was nice to see Marco Luciano get back on track after his back problems, at least until a hamstring injury, but ZiPS only translates his 2023 as .189/.262/.339 at Double-A Richmond and .185/.266/.338 in his brief stint for Triple-A Sacramento, so the computer, even with some significant projected improvement, isn’t sold on him as the starting shortstop in 2024. Luis Matos at least gets a happier projection, one that sees significant improvement over his 2023 debut. He doesn’t have a clear path to projection and is easier to stash in the minors given his options remaining, but if his Triple-A performance is the equivalent of his MLB projection, he ought to push his way back into plate appearances during the season.
Pitchers
The problem with the hitters is similar to the pitchers in that they’re acceptable everywhere and disastrous nowhere, but don’t have a great deal of high-end upside. But I can’t deny that Logan Webb is the exception here; he has the highest ZiPS WAR projection of any pitcher in baseball. He’s certainly not the flashiest pitcher, and he’ll never spike huge strikeout rates, but his sinker and changeup are so cruel and his command so good that he doesn’t need to be a whiff god to be one of the most dominating, consistent pitchers in the majors.
As noted, ZiPS doesn’t have much to complain about, with the relatively low WAR totals being more due to low inning projections. Alex Cobb is perhaps the most interesting of the rest of the pack, having gotten his career back in recent years, though hip surgery makes his early-season availability a question mark. ZiPS also isn’t taken aback by Kyle Harrison’s home run rate in seven starts and overall sees the team with about a half-dozen potential starters with ERA+ figures between 90–100. It’s just not that exciting.
In the bullpen, ZiPS sees Camilo Doval as the standout performer with solid contributions from the Rogerses. As a full-time reliever, it also sees Ryan Walker with a 3.50 ERA, making him a fourth above-average option. ZiPS just isn’t very excited once you get past these four pitchers, and less positive than Steamer on Luke Jackson or Sean Hjelle (4.40 ERA projection in relief). It is kind of sweet on Devin Sweet, despite a poor cup of coffee in 2023.
Right now, the Giants look like an 80–85 win team. They may challenge the Padres, but as of this moment, they would need a lot to go their way to make the Dodgers nervous. Maybe they have a surprise left in them this winter, but I expect them to be one of the second-tier wild card contenders, though likely beating their 79 wins in 2023.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Jung Hoo Lee
L
25
CF
524
476
56
137
29
4
8
62
39
38
2
7
Patrick Bailey
B
25
C
420
380
44
86
19
1
10
46
34
113
2
1
Wilmer Flores
R
32
1B
466
415
54
110
22
1
17
61
41
70
0
1
Thairo Estrada
R
28
2B
503
465
62
122
23
2
12
57
26
101
16
5
Mike Yastrzemski
L
33
CF
449
391
62
90
25
2
16
53
49
117
3
1
J.D. Davis
R
31
3B
464
406
50
101
22
1
14
55
46
134
1
1
LaMonte Wade Jr.
L
30
1B
457
384
59
95
16
2
15
50
60
89
3
1
David Villar
R
27
3B
473
423
61
93
19
0
18
61
41
141
4
1
Brandon Crawford
L
37
SS
381
339
43
81
16
1
10
44
33
90
4
1
Tyler Fitzgerald
R
26
SS
529
482
69
107
24
4
15
66
34
161
15
2
Luis Matos
R
22
CF
534
488
64
130
24
2
12
56
37
67
10
3
Brett Wisely
L
25
2B
458
406
57
98
20
2
9
49
42
114
10
5
Trenton Brooks
L
28
LF
463
407
56
101
26
1
11
57
45
82
3
1
Jakson Reetz
R
28
C
347
309
35
67
18
1
11
48
25
106
2
1
Tom Murphy
R
33
C
217
193
25
49
10
0
8
25
21
60
0
1
Michael Conforto
L
31
RF
444
386
52
95
19
0
14
53
46
101
3
1
Joc Pederson
L
32
LF
426
368
56
90
16
3
17
54
46
94
1
1
Austin Slater
R
31
CF
303
267
38
65
12
1
8
33
31
84
8
2
Donovan Walton
L
30
2B
336
301
39
75
16
1
6
38
24
54
3
3
Chase Pinder
R
28
CF
293
250
31
53
12
0
5
28
35
77
4
2
Mitch Haniger
R
33
LF
415
371
57
90
17
1
16
57
34
103
1
1
Michael Gigliotti
L
28
LF
286
243
34
53
11
2
3
27
32
69
7
2
Bryce Johnson
B
28
CF
380
341
47
81
12
3
6
39
31
105
17
4
Wade Meckler
L
24
CF
420
373
53
100
16
3
4
43
42
88
7
2
Jimmy Glowenke
R
25
2B
399
357
42
79
20
1
8
45
28
104
2
1
Ismael Munguia
L
25
CF
385
353
51
95
16
1
5
42
16
52
9
3
Clint Coulter
R
30
RF
238
217
31
53
13
1
6
32
14
54
2
1
Joey Bart
R
27
C
333
302
39
69
13
0
8
37
23
103
1
1
Marco Luciano
R
22
SS
359
321
37
69
16
0
10
38
34
115
4
1
Jack Larsen
L
29
LF
412
366
49
86
17
3
6
43
41
110
3
2
Ricardo Genovés
R
25
C
347
316
34
68
15
0
6
35
25
102
0
1
Heliot Ramos
R
24
RF
449
411
55
98
20
2
11
52
31
126
7
4
Vaun Brown
R
26
CF
328
296
44
68
14
3
8
45
18
121
15
1
Grant McCray
L
23
CF
565
508
74
111
19
5
11
61
45
196
23
6
Luis González
L
28
RF
316
281
34
66
12
1
6
33
28
71
9
3
AJ Pollock
R
36
LF
351
324
39
82
18
1
10
39
22
72
3
1
Carter Howell
R
25
RF
536
491
70
117
20
5
6
50
36
127
7
4
Adrian Sugastey
R
21
C
316
297
26
73
12
2
3
28
14
55
1
1
Casey Schmitt
R
25
SS
480
444
50
106
23
1
10
54
25
111
3
2
Will Wilson
R
25
SS
462
422
51
92
17
1
12
50
30
131
2
1
Andy Thomas
L
26
C
397
352
35
74
13
1
6
36
36
109
2
1
Johan Camargo
B
30
SS
343
313
35
78
13
1
8
36
27
68
0
1
Blake Sabol
L
26
C
383
345
40
79
14
2
10
52
30
124
4
2
Yusniel Díaz
R
27
RF
374
336
39
78
16
2
8
37
33
95
3
3
Turner Hill
L
25
CF
373
341
44
87
19
3
0
31
23
43
13
6
Aeverson Arteaga
R
21
SS
574
534
61
118
28
2
10
59
30
169
5
2
Brady Whalen
L
26
1B
317
293
34
71
15
1
5
34
17
63
3
1
Brett Auerbach
R
25
3B
395
366
38
75
14
1
8
39
24
131
11
5
Simon Whiteman
R
27
SS
326
289
31
60
11
1
2
24
28
95
10
2
Yoshi Tsutsugo
L
32
1B
336
292
34
61
11
1
9
36
39
101
1
1
Hunter Bishop
L
26
CF
293
263
31
50
8
1
6
30
22
110
6
2
Colton Welker
R
26
DH
207
182
19
40
7
0
2
18
20
47
1
1
Carter Aldrete
R
26
3B
403
375
40
82
18
0
9
42
23
121
2
2
Ford Proctor
L
27
3B
386
334
39
71
10
1
6
37
44
102
2
1
Shane Matheny
L
28
CF
463
406
52
83
15
2
8
42
50
156
7
2
Brandon Martorano
R
26
C
295
262
28
50
8
2
5
28
27
104
3
2
Riley Mahan
L
28
1B
273
254
26
50
11
1
6
29
14
106
2
1
Carter Williams
L
26
RF
288
270
31
61
11
1
5
29
13
74
4
1
Max Wright
L
26
C
154
137
13
27
7
0
2
15
12
49
0
1
Damon Dues
L
26
2B
282
246
35
55
9
1
0
21
31
66
12
3
Logan Wyatt
L
26
1B
417
374
42
82
13
0
7
37
38
103
1
1
Luis Toribio
L
23
3B
437
393
44
78
16
1
11
43
39
145
0
1
Jose Ramos
R
21
SS
469
427
53
88
18
4
8
47
29
153
14
2
Dilan Rosario
R
23
2B
266
246
23
47
7
1
3
21
15
100
3
2
Victor Bericoto
R
22
RF
528
486
58
113
19
2
14
58
33
138
1
1
Jared Dupere
L
25
LF
380
354
38
68
14
2
8
37
21
161
5
1
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Jung Hoo Lee
524
.288
.346
.416
111
.128
.300
1
2.5
.330
72
Patrick Bailey
420
.226
.294
.361
81
.134
.296
13
2.4
.288
41
Wilmer Flores
466
.265
.337
.446
115
.181
.284
4
2.0
.338
63
Thairo Estrada
503
.262
.314
.398
96
.135
.313
1
1.9
.310
63
Mike Yastrzemski
449
.230
.321
.427
106
.197
.287
-1
1.9
.323
55
J.D. Davis
464
.249
.334
.411
106
.163
.337
-2
1.9
.325
56
LaMonte Wade Jr.
457
.247
.357
.417
114
.169
.286
0
1.7
.339
58
David Villar
473
.220
.298
.392
90
.173
.284
3
1.6
.302
51
Brandon Crawford
381
.239
.312
.381
91
.142
.297
2
1.5
.302
42
Tyler Fitzgerald
529
.222
.283
.382
83
.160
.301
1
1.5
.289
56
Luis Matos
534
.266
.325
.398
100
.131
.289
-7
1.4
.317
66
Brett Wisely
458
.241
.315
.367
89
.126
.314
2
1.4
.301
51
Trenton Brooks
463
.248
.328
.398
101
.150
.287
2
1.3
.318
54
Jakson Reetz
347
.217
.300
.388
89
.172
.292
0
1.2
.301
37
Tom Murphy
217
.254
.327
.430
108
.176
.328
-1
1.1
.328
28
Michael Conforto
444
.246
.338
.404
105
.158
.299
-2
1.1
.324
54
Joc Pederson
426
.245
.338
.443
115
.198
.284
-5
1.1
.336
56
Austin Slater
303
.243
.330
.386
98
.142
.326
-1
1.1
.315
36
Donovan Walton
336
.249
.315
.369
90
.120
.286
3
1.1
.301
37
Chase Pinder
293
.212
.316
.320
78
.108
.286
6
1.0
.289
27
Mitch Haniger
415
.243
.313
.423
102
.181
.294
0
1.0
.318
50
Michael Gigliotti
286
.218
.322
.317
79
.099
.292
8
0.9
.290
27
Bryce Johnson
380
.238
.308
.343
81
.106
.326
1
0.9
.289
41
Wade Meckler
420
.268
.346
.359
97
.091
.342
-8
0.8
.315
49
Jimmy Glowenke
399
.221
.297
.350
79
.129
.290
2
0.8
.287
38
Ismael Munguia
385
.269
.313
.363
87
.093
.304
-1
0.8
.297
43
Clint Coulter
238
.244
.307
.396
94
.152
.299
4
0.7
.307
27
Joey Bart
333
.228
.297
.351
80
.123
.319
-1
0.7
.287
32
Marco Luciano
359
.215
.292
.358
80
.143
.301
-2
0.6
.287
35
Jack Larsen
412
.235
.316
.347
85
.112
.320
5
0.6
.295
42
Ricardo Genovés
347
.215
.282
.320
67
.104
.298
3
0.6
.269
29
Heliot Ramos
449
.238
.299
.377
87
.139
.318
3
0.5
.296
49
Vaun Brown
328
.230
.299
.378
87
.149
.359
-5
0.5
.297
37
Grant McCray
565
.219
.291
.341
75
.122
.332
-1
0.5
.280
57
Luis González
316
.235
.310
.349
83
.114
.294
3
0.4
.292
33
AJ Pollock
351
.253
.302
.407
95
.154
.298
-1
0.4
.305
41
Carter Howell
536
.238
.294
.336
75
.098
.310
9
0.4
.279
52
Adrian Sugastey
316
.246
.288
.330
71
.084
.293
0
0.3
.273
29
Casey Schmitt
480
.239
.287
.363
79
.124
.297
-5
0.3
.284
48
Will Wilson
462
.218
.275
.348
72
.130
.287
-1
0.3
.274
41
Andy Thomas
397
.210
.289
.304
65
.094
.287
0
0.2
.267
32
Johan Camargo
343
.249
.312
.374
90
.125
.295
-9
0.2
.302
37
Blake Sabol
383
.229
.296
.368
83
.139
.327
-9
0.2
.291
39
Yusniel Díaz
374
.232
.302
.363
84
.131
.300
1
0.1
.293
39
Turner Hill
373
.255
.311
.328
78
.073
.292
-4
0.0
.285
40
Aeverson Arteaga
574
.221
.270
.337
68
.116
.304
-4
-0.2
.266
50
Brady Whalen
317
.242
.291
.352
78
.109
.293
1
-0.3
.282
31
Brett Auerbach
395
.205
.261
.314
59
.109
.295
3
-0.3
.255
34
Simon Whiteman
326
.208
.283
.273
56
.066
.302
-2
-0.3
.254
25
Yoshi Tsutsugo
336
.209
.301
.346
79
.137
.286
-1
-0.3
.287
31
Hunter Bishop
293
.190
.267
.297
57
.106
.299
0
-0.4
.254
23
Colton Welker
207
.220
.304
.291
67
.071
.286
0
-0.4
.271
17
Carter Aldrete
403
.219
.264
.339
66
.120
.298
-2
-0.6
.263
35
Ford Proctor
386
.213
.307
.302
71
.090
.288
-8
-0.7
.277
32
Shane Matheny
463
.204
.295
.310
69
.106
.310
-7
-0.7
.272
39
Brandon Martorano
295
.191
.275
.294
58
.103
.294
-7
-0.7
.257
23
Riley Mahan
273
.197
.245
.319
55
.122
.310
4
-0.7
.247
21
Carter Williams
288
.226
.267
.330
65
.104
.293
-1
-0.8
.262
25
Max Wright
154
.197
.279
.292
59
.095
.291
-7
-0.8
.259
12
Damon Dues
282
.224
.317
.268
65
.045
.306
-9
-0.8
.271
25
Logan Wyatt
417
.219
.295
.310
69
.091
.284
0
-0.9
.272
35
Luis Toribio
437
.198
.273
.328
66
.130
.283
-8
-1.1
.266
36
Jose Ramos
469
.206
.269
.323
64
.117
.301
-13
-1.2
.262
41
Dilan Rosario
266
.191
.245
.264
42
.073
.308
-5
-1.5
.229
17
Victor Bericoto
528
.233
.279
.366
78
.134
.296
-10
-1.5
.280
50
Jared Dupere
380
.192
.243
.311
53
.119
.324
-5
-2.0
.243
28
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Jung Hoo Lee
.314
.373
.456
128
3.6
.258
.323
.371
93
1.3
Patrick Bailey
.258
.321
.411
100
3.4
.199
.264
.312
60
1.3
Wilmer Flores
.292
.365
.489
133
3.1
.238
.311
.400
98
1.0
Thairo Estrada
.290
.342
.439
114
3.2
.233
.286
.348
76
0.6
Mike Yastrzemski
.254
.347
.474
123
2.9
.204
.296
.358
83
0.6
J.D. Davis
.277
.363
.469
126
3.0
.216
.306
.361
84
0.6
LaMonte Wade Jr.
.276
.384
.471
134
2.8
.223
.330
.365
95
0.6
David Villar
.243
.322
.442
107
2.5
.194
.270
.345
71
0.3
Brandon Crawford
.270
.342
.432
111
2.5
.210
.283
.330
71
0.5
Tyler Fitzgerald
.248
.308
.428
102
2.8
.195
.255
.329
62
0.1
Luis Matos
.294
.350
.443
119
2.8
.238
.296
.359
83
0.2
Brett Wisely
.265
.340
.415
106
2.5
.217
.290
.329
72
0.5
Trenton Brooks
.275
.357
.445
119
2.4
.228
.305
.355
82
0.2
Jakson Reetz
.252
.330
.451
111
2.1
.189
.270
.326
66
0.2
Tom Murphy
.283
.357
.490
131
1.8
.218
.295
.380
87
0.5
Michael Conforto
.271
.363
.451
122
2.2
.218
.311
.355
82
0.0
Joc Pederson
.271
.362
.490
132
2.1
.219
.313
.383
94
0.0
Austin Slater
.269
.358
.431
116
1.8
.215
.302
.331
79
0.3
Donovan Walton
.278
.341
.411
108
1.9
.218
.287
.321
71
0.2
Chase Pinder
.239
.349
.362
97
1.7
.184
.284
.278
58
0.3
Mitch Haniger
.265
.338
.476
121
1.9
.212
.286
.370
80
-0.1
Michael Gigliotti
.246
.351
.363
98
1.5
.190
.290
.276
60
0.1
Bryce Johnson
.265
.332
.387
100
1.8
.209
.279
.297
63
0.0
Wade Meckler
.297
.377
.397
115
1.8
.237
.317
.313
78
-0.2
Jimmy Glowenke
.251
.325
.402
99
1.9
.195
.269
.306
59
-0.2
Ismael Munguia
.299
.342
.405
105
1.6
.241
.287
.327
70
-0.2
Clint Coulter
.274
.335
.442
113
1.3
.217
.277
.344
74
0.1
Joey Bart
.257
.325
.400
97
1.4
.198
.268
.302
60
-0.2
Marco Luciano
.244
.315
.400
97
1.3
.190
.263
.314
62
-0.2
Jack Larsen
.263
.344
.392
103
1.6
.208
.284
.301
65
-0.4
Ricardo Genovés
.243
.313
.360
85
1.4
.190
.254
.276
50
-0.2
Heliot Ramos
.265
.323
.422
104
1.6
.214
.271
.338
69
-0.4
Vaun Brown
.262
.329
.437
108
1.4
.201
.270
.325
65
-0.4
Grant McCray
.240
.313
.383
90
1.7
.191
.266
.299
57
-0.7
Luis González
.262
.339
.398
103
1.2
.209
.283
.303
63
-0.4
AJ Pollock
.278
.327
.454
113
1.2
.216
.269
.362
74
-0.6
Carter Howell
.265
.320
.371
90
1.4
.217
.271
.298
59
-0.7
Adrian Sugastey
.280
.321
.377
94
1.2
.217
.258
.290
53
-0.4
Casey Schmitt
.263
.309
.407
96
1.3
.217
.265
.327
65
-0.5
Will Wilson
.244
.300
.393
88
1.3
.193
.249
.300
52
-0.8
Andy Thomas
.242
.323
.356
85
1.3
.182
.256
.265
46
-0.8
Johan Camargo
.276
.339
.416
108
1.0
.221
.281
.328
71
-0.6
Blake Sabol
.255
.321
.419
102
1.1
.199
.267
.317
62
-0.8
Yusniel Díaz
.262
.335
.412
105
1.1
.204
.270
.317
64
-0.9
Turner Hill
.289
.341
.372
99
1.0
.228
.283
.284
58
-1.0
Aeverson Arteaga
.252
.299
.388
89
1.4
.195
.244
.293
50
-1.5
Brady Whalen
.273
.321
.406
99
0.6
.216
.266
.312
61
-1.0
Brett Auerbach
.230
.283
.355
75
0.5
.176
.231
.264
38
-1.4
Simon Whiteman
.233
.308
.308
72
0.4
.178
.254
.235
39
-1.0
Yoshi Tsutsugo
.237
.332
.397
100
0.6
.185
.271
.297
60
-1.2
Hunter Bishop
.220
.297
.341
74
0.3
.163
.241
.253
38
-1.1
Colton Welker
.249
.333
.333
85
0.0
.192
.275
.256
51
-0.9
Carter Aldrete
.245
.290
.385
84
0.4
.195
.236
.294
48
-1.5
Ford Proctor
.239
.334
.344
88
0.2
.182
.278
.259
51
-1.5
Shane Matheny
.230
.323
.351
87
0.4
.175
.268
.269
51
-1.7
Brandon Martorano
.218
.306
.350
80
0.1
.159
.245
.252
42
-1.5
Riley Mahan
.223
.269
.370
74
-0.1
.172
.216
.272
36
-1.4
Carter Williams
.257
.297
.383
85
0.0
.202
.243
.286
47
-1.4
Max Wright
.230
.313
.345
81
-0.4
.167
.246
.248
40
-1.2
Damon Dues
.251
.348
.302
81
-0.2
.198
.288
.235
47
-1.5
Logan Wyatt
.247
.328
.356
88
0.2
.193
.269
.273
51
-1.8
Luis Toribio
.229
.303
.383
86
0.0
.174
.247
.292
49
-2.1
Jose Ramos
.234
.297
.368
84
0.0
.178
.245
.275
45
-2.4
Dilan Rosario
.221
.272
.313
61
-0.9
.166
.216
.225
24
-2.1
Victor Bericoto
.257
.307
.414
97
-0.2
.206
.255
.322
62
-2.6
Jared Dupere
.222
.272
.357
74
-1.0
.167
.217
.263
35
-2.9
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Jung Hoo Lee
.276
.331
.388
.292
.352
.427
Patrick Bailey
.226
.296
.356
.226
.292
.363
Wilmer Flores
.271
.346
.451
.262
.332
.443
Thairo Estrada
.267
.323
.398
.260
.309
.398
Mike Yastrzemski
.223
.314
.417
.233
.324
.431
J.D. Davis
.250
.341
.404
.248
.330
.416
LaMonte Wade Jr.
.230
.333
.368
.253
.364
.431
David Villar
.223
.306
.396
.217
.291
.389
Brandon Crawford
.242
.311
.379
.238
.313
.381
Tyler Fitzgerald
.220
.290
.378
.223
.278
.385
Luis Matos
.271
.336
.416
.263
.316
.383
Brett Wisely
.236
.309
.351
.244
.318
.376
Trenton Brooks
.236
.311
.354
.255
.338
.422
Jakson Reetz
.218
.306
.401
.216
.294
.377
Tom Murphy
.265
.354
.422
.245
.306
.436
Michael Conforto
.231
.319
.356
.252
.345
.422
Joc Pederson
.222
.313
.389
.250
.344
.456
Austin Slater
.254
.352
.421
.234
.310
.355
Donovan Walton
.242
.309
.354
.252
.318
.376
Chase Pinder
.215
.325
.318
.210
.309
.322
Mitch Haniger
.250
.324
.435
.239
.308
.417
Michael Gigliotti
.203
.302
.311
.225
.330
.320
Bryce Johnson
.237
.312
.353
.238
.304
.335
Wade Meckler
.262
.339
.350
.270
.349
.363
Jimmy Glowenke
.218
.295
.346
.224
.299
.353
Ismael Munguia
.264
.313
.330
.271
.313
.377
Clint Coulter
.244
.313
.433
.244
.302
.370
Joey Bart
.230
.304
.344
.228
.293
.356
Marco Luciano
.223
.310
.360
.209
.279
.357
Jack Larsen
.223
.301
.335
.247
.332
.360
Ricardo Genovés
.218
.290
.327
.213
.276
.314
Heliot Ramos
.237
.305
.381
.240
.292
.372
Vaun Brown
.240
.308
.419
.222
.292
.347
Grant McCray
.215
.286
.339
.221
.293
.341
Luis González
.227
.303
.330
.238
.313
.358
AJ Pollock
.255
.308
.418
.252
.299
.402
Carter Howell
.238
.301
.333
.238
.290
.338
Adrian Sugastey
.250
.294
.328
.243
.283
.331
Casey Schmitt
.245
.296
.385
.234
.279
.344
Will Wilson
.223
.286
.363
.214
.267
.337
Andy Thomas
.200
.280
.286
.215
.292
.312
Johan Camargo
.252
.317
.374
.247
.309
.374
Blake Sabol
.218
.287
.355
.234
.300
.374
Yusniel Díaz
.231
.311
.357
.233
.296
.368
Turner Hill
.244
.306
.311
.259
.313
.335
Aeverson Arteaga
.228
.283
.345
.215
.260
.331
Brady Whalen
.229
.280
.330
.250
.298
.364
Brett Auerbach
.215
.277
.344
.197
.248
.291
Simon Whiteman
.216
.300
.299
.200
.269
.252
Yoshi Tsutsugo
.202
.287
.337
.212
.306
.350
Hunter Bishop
.176
.256
.284
.196
.271
.302
Colton Welker
.230
.318
.311
.213
.295
.278
Carter Aldrete
.220
.269
.346
.218
.260
.333
Ford Proctor
.202
.297
.271
.220
.314
.322
Shane Matheny
.192
.279
.285
.210
.303
.322
Brandon Martorano
.193
.281
.294
.189
.269
.294
Riley Mahan
.191
.240
.292
.200
.249
.333
Carter Williams
.224
.264
.294
.227
.269
.346
Max Wright
.186
.286
.302
.202
.276
.287
Damon Dues
.216
.310
.243
.227
.320
.279
Logan Wyatt
.207
.279
.293
.225
.302
.318
Luis Toribio
.187
.262
.291
.205
.279
.347
Jose Ramos
.206
.271
.327
.206
.268
.321
Dilan Rosario
.192
.257
.269
.190
.237
.261
Victor Bericoto
.240
.294
.380
.227
.269
.357
Jared Dupere
.188
.235
.295
.194
.246
.318
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Logan Webb
192.0
7.8
1.9
0.8
5.2%
21.1%
.294
123
3.36
81
4.4
Alex Cobb
136.0
8.0
3.0
0.7
7.6%
20.4%
.324
106
3.61
94
2.3
Kyle Harrison
106.3
10.7
4.5
1.1
11.6%
27.8%
.294
97
4.20
104
1.4
Mason Black
109.7
8.6
3.5
1.1
9.1%
22.3%
.296
94
4.39
106
1.3
Keaton Winn
96.7
8.3
3.0
1.1
7.7%
21.5%
.300
95
4.24
105
1.1
Sean Manaea
112.0
9.1
2.7
1.3
7.1%
23.6%
.313
92
4.14
108
1.1
Camilo Doval
66.3
11.3
4.1
0.9
10.5%
29.1%
.291
112
3.71
90
1.0
Carson Whisenhunt
77.7
9.2
3.6
1.2
9.3%
23.6%
.297
98
4.25
102
1.0
Jakob Junis
88.0
9.1
2.5
1.2
6.4%
23.8%
.313
97
3.96
103
1.0
Anthony DeSclafani
94.3
7.3
2.7
1.3
6.9%
18.7%
.298
91
4.53
110
0.9
Landen Roupp
78.3
7.9
3.3
1.1
8.7%
20.7%
.289
94
4.34
107
0.9
Alex Wood
95.0
8.3
2.8
1.1
7.4%
21.7%
.301
92
4.28
109
0.9
Carson Seymour
97.0
7.4
3.5
1.1
8.8%
18.6%
.301
88
4.57
114
0.9
Ryan Walker
67.0
10.6
3.5
1.1
9.0%
27.3%
.314
101
3.79
99
0.8
Tristan Beck
94.0
8.0
3.2
1.1
8.1%
20.6%
.305
93
4.31
108
0.8
Ross Stripling
85.0
8.0
2.4
1.4
6.4%
21.1%
.302
92
4.34
109
0.8
Ryan Murphy
95.3
7.6
3.7
1.2
9.2%
19.1%
.300
87
4.71
115
0.8
John Michael Bertrand
98.3
5.1
2.7
1.2
6.9%
13.0%
.300
86
4.81
116
0.7
Hayden Birdsong
92.3
7.8
3.8
1.2
9.6%
19.7%
.291
86
4.77
117
0.6
Kai-Wei Teng
108.3
9.1
5.2
1.1
12.6%
22.4%
.297
83
4.94
120
0.6
Nick Zwack
75.0
7.2
3.2
1.2
8.3%
18.4%
.303
87
4.59
115
0.6
Sean Hjelle
108.0
6.7
3.4
1.1
8.5%
16.6%
.308
85
4.73
118
0.6
Spencer Howard
57.7
9.5
3.6
1.2
9.2%
24.3%
.308
90
4.30
111
0.6
Matt Frisbee
89.3
6.2
2.6
1.3
6.7%
16.0%
.299
86
4.83
116
0.6
Wil Jensen
82.7
7.1
3.4
1.3
8.5%
17.9%
.303
87
4.80
115
0.5
Kade McClure
67.3
7.0
3.2
1.2
8.1%
17.5%
.310
87
4.65
114
0.5
Tyler Rogers
66.0
7.0
2.0
1.1
5.5%
18.5%
.294
103
4.15
97
0.5
John Brebbia
44.3
9.5
3.0
1.4
7.9%
24.9%
.308
96
4.27
104
0.4
Scott Alexander
40.3
6.5
2.2
1.1
5.7%
16.5%
.305
96
4.25
104
0.4
Miguel Yajure
72.7
7.1
3.6
1.2
9.0%
17.6%
.300
83
4.84
121
0.4
Taylor Rogers
45.3
11.5
3.4
1.2
8.8%
30.1%
.318
103
3.81
97
0.3
Phoenix Sanders
39.3
8.5
2.3
1.1
6.1%
22.4%
.304
99
3.87
101
0.3
Devin Sweet
45.0
8.6
3.0
1.2
7.7%
22.2%
.299
97
4.21
103
0.2
Luke Jackson
44.3
9.7
4.1
1.4
10.3%
24.6%
.299
96
4.63
104
0.2
Mat Olsen
56.3
9.1
3.5
1.1
9.1%
23.7%
.299
95
4.28
106
0.1
Tanner Andrews
57.0
7.1
3.6
1.3
8.9%
17.5%
.303
84
4.82
120
0.1
R.J. Dabovich
41.3
10.7
5.2
1.1
13.0%
26.5%
.294
94
4.27
107
0.1
Parker Dunshee
74.3
7.3
4.1
1.3
10.3%
18.2%
.296
79
5.30
127
0.1
Nick Avila
61.3
6.8
3.8
1.2
9.5%
16.7%
.307
87
4.77
115
0.0
Nick Swiney
57.7
7.5
5.3
1.2
12.7%
17.9%
.305
79
5.27
126
0.0
Erik Miller
50.7
10.5
6.2
1.1
15.2%
25.7%
.297
85
4.66
117
0.0
Nick Garcia
85.7
5.4
3.6
1.3
8.8%
13.2%
.299
76
5.39
131
0.0
Evan Gates
53.0
8.3
4.1
1.2
10.0%
20.5%
.303
89
4.54
112
0.0
Drew Strotman
83.7
7.3
5.6
1.2
13.3%
17.4%
.306
78
5.38
129
0.0
Juan Sanchez
63.3
8.4
4.5
1.1
11.3%
20.8%
.294
90
4.69
111
0.0
Darien Núñez
30.3
10.1
5.6
1.5
13.7%
24.5%
.304
81
5.04
123
0.0
Cole Waites
34.3
9.4
6.0
1.0
14.6%
22.8%
.301
82
4.68
122
-0.1
Raymond Burgos
52.0
6.9
3.8
1.2
9.4%
17.2%
.304
87
4.85
114
-0.1
Tyler Myrick
42.3
6.6
3.2
1.1
7.9%
16.4%
.306
87
4.53
114
-0.1
Randy Rodriguez
62.7
9.0
5.9
1.1
14.2%
21.8%
.297
81
5.15
123
-0.1
Michael Stryffeler
34.3
11.3
6.6
1.3
15.6%
26.9%
.293
82
5.00
122
-0.1
Chris Wright
48.7
10.4
6.7
1.1
15.7%
24.5%
.304
82
4.90
122
-0.2
José Cruz
41.7
10.2
5.8
1.3
14.1%
24.5%
.292
82
5.18
122
-0.2
Spencer Bivens
71.7
6.8
4.1
1.3
10.0%
16.4%
.300
79
5.24
126
-0.3
Hunter Dula
46.7
7.5
4.8
1.2
11.6%
18.1%
.300
82
4.93
123
-0.3
Joey Marciano
44.3
8.1
5.9
1.2
14.0%
19.3%
.302
77
5.31
129
-0.4
Jorge Guzmán
44.3
6.5
5.7
1.2
13.4%
15.3%
.300
72
5.74
139
-0.4
Blake Rivera
40.7
8.0
6.0
1.3
14.1%
18.8%
.303
74
5.62
135
-0.4
Ben Madison
54.3
10.1
6.5
1.2
15.0%
23.5%
.298
80
5.06
126
-0.4
Sam Delaplane
41.3
10.0
6.5
1.3
15.4%
23.6%
.299
75
5.31
133
-0.4
Daniel Tillo
45.7
5.1
5.7
1.4
13.1%
11.8%
.305
67
6.21
149
-0.4
Melvin Adón
49.0
8.1
5.3
1.3
12.5%
19.0%
.313
77
5.28
130
-0.5
Clay Helvey
46.3
7.6
5.8
1.4
13.5%
17.6%
.302
75
5.61
133
-0.5
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Logan Webb
.255
.302
.385
.233
.273
.348
5.4
3.3
2.90
3.79
Alex Cobb
.259
.327
.381
.272
.322
.401
3.2
1.3
3.26
4.53
Kyle Harrison
.239
.338
.316
.218
.320
.400
2.4
0.5
3.53
4.93
Mason Black
.221
.317
.359
.268
.332
.442
2.2
0.5
3.74
5.01
Keaton Winn
.250
.319
.413
.252
.319
.403
1.9
0.5
3.67
4.88
Sean Manaea
.223
.277
.350
.268
.328
.451
1.9
0.1
3.76
5.30
Camilo Doval
.224
.331
.388
.205
.289
.311
2.0
-0.1
2.94
4.65
Carson Whisenhunt
.256
.320
.367
.237
.319
.412
1.7
0.4
3.56
4.95
Jakob Junis
.270
.326
.425
.243
.293
.422
1.6
0.3
3.55
5.01
Anthony DeSclafani
.277
.338
.479
.251
.294
.401
1.5
0.2
3.93
5.23
Landen Roupp
.255
.327
.431
.240
.304
.389
1.5
0.3
3.81
4.96
Alex Wood
.245
.299
.347
.255
.329
.434
1.6
0.1
3.86
5.24
Carson Seymour
.253
.343
.404
.267
.326
.432
1.5
0.3
4.13
5.20
Ryan Walker
.258
.328
.417
.223
.306
.360
1.5
0.0
3.25
5.19
Tristan Beck
.256
.319
.423
.261
.327
.419
1.5
0.0
3.81
5.21
Ross Stripling
.245
.298
.400
.275
.320
.478
1.5
0.2
3.78
5.24
Ryan Murphy
.246
.338
.393
.273
.332
.459
1.4
0.1
4.17
5.36
John Michael Bertrand
.286
.333
.445
.279
.331
.446
1.2
0.1
4.34
5.26
Hayden Birdsong
.257
.347
.427
.243
.326
.402
1.2
0.0
4.31
5.32
Kai-Wei Teng
.242
.376
.397
.240
.342
.391
1.4
-0.4
4.38
5.70
Nick Zwack
.235
.320
.329
.277
.335
.474
1.1
0.0
4.15
5.36
Sean Hjelle
.290
.366
.475
.256
.326
.393
1.3
-0.1
4.36
5.42
Spencer Howard
.236
.322
.425
.261
.326
.403
1.1
0.1
3.85
5.27
Matt Frisbee
.266
.332
.438
.279
.329
.458
1.1
-0.1
4.24
5.38
Wil Jensen
.264
.337
.428
.273
.332
.459
1.1
0.0
4.12
5.29
Kade McClure
.283
.357
.457
.264
.318
.431
1.0
0.0
4.13
5.28
Tyler Rogers
.256
.313
.402
.259
.301
.413
1.0
-0.2
3.29
4.84
John Brebbia
.257
.329
.500
.250
.303
.390
0.9
-0.1
3.37
5.59
Scott Alexander
.259
.295
.414
.279
.327
.442
0.7
0.0
3.57
4.94
Miguel Yajure
.290
.369
.458
.245
.313
.421
0.8
-0.1
4.45
5.60
Taylor Rogers
.204
.283
.278
.250
.331
.450
0.9
-0.3
2.97
5.23
Phoenix Sanders
.254
.315
.418
.253
.290
.414
0.6
-0.1
3.36
5.05
Devin Sweet
.224
.306
.368
.270
.321
.450
0.6
-0.2
3.51
5.17
Luke Jackson
.230
.337
.365
.255
.321
.469
0.7
-0.4
3.42
5.68
Mat Olsen
.260
.348
.460
.229
.303
.347
0.6
-0.4
3.60
5.09
Tanner Andrews
.264
.347
.453
.270
.328
.426
0.6
-0.3
4.34
5.58
R.J. Dabovich
.230
.345
.378
.220
.316
.378
0.6
-0.4
3.57
5.38
Parker Dunshee
.283
.375
.464
.244
.335
.423
0.7
-0.5
4.59
5.89
Nick Avila
.281
.352
.465
.265
.333
.409
0.4
-0.4
4.20
5.29
Nick Swiney
.277
.385
.462
.261
.353
.424
0.5
-0.5
4.47
5.96
Erik Miller
.210
.338
.339
.237
.357
.397
0.5
-0.5
4.05
5.72
Nick Garcia
.275
.360
.458
.284
.353
.448
0.5
-0.6
4.88
5.94
Evan Gates
.245
.336
.408
.264
.328
.427
0.4
-0.5
3.91
5.24
Drew Strotman
.255
.374
.396
.276
.367
.465
0.5
-0.8
4.75
6.07
Juan Sanchez
.244
.333
.372
.249
.340
.414
0.4
-0.7
3.97
5.37
Darien Núñez
.257
.381
.400
.241
.333
.458
0.3
-0.5
4.14
6.44
Cole Waites
.254
.373
.429
.229
.329
.371
0.2
-0.5
4.31
6.09
Raymond Burgos
.254
.324
.397
.276
.350
.448
0.3
-0.4
4.15
5.28
Tyler Myrick
.250
.326
.413
.289
.343
.433
0.2
-0.4
4.11
5.30
Randy Rodriguez
.273
.404
.455
.218
.327
.353
0.4
-0.8
4.41
6.02
Michael Stryffeler
.207
.361
.379
.236
.349
.417
0.2
-0.6
4.19
6.38
Chris Wright
.222
.355
.349
.242
.367
.411
0.3
-0.7
4.20
5.98
José Cruz
.225
.368
.394
.239
.352
.420
0.1
-0.7
4.33
5.75
Spencer Bivens
.269
.368
.454
.268
.345
.433
0.2
-0.8
4.62
5.88
Hunter Dula
.279
.374
.465
.242
.327
.384
0.0
-0.6
4.54
5.65
Joey Marciano
.234
.338
.359
.270
.383
.459
0.1
-0.8
4.55
6.27
Jorge Guzmán
.256
.384
.378
.281
.375
.490
0.0
-0.8
5.08
6.48
Blake Rivera
.267
.389
.400
.256
.363
.477
-0.1
-0.8
4.94
6.50
Ben Madison
.258
.400
.464
.214
.331
.330
0.1
-1.0
4.43
6.19
Sam Delaplane
.250
.387
.461
.229
.350
.373
0.0
-0.9
4.64
6.68
Daniel Tillo
.262
.361
.410
.302
.403
.500
-0.1
-0.9
5.56
6.99
Melvin Adón
.267
.368
.422
.267
.366
.457
-0.1
-1.0
4.69
6.22
Clay Helvey
.261
.381
.455
.268
.363
.433
-0.2
-1.0
4.87
6.36
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.