For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the San Diego Padres.
Batters
The Padres have an elite set of offensive talent in Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and the rest of the assorted cast. Then again, they need to be, because as the team is currently designed, the pitching is a massive sinkhole. Soto leads this group, and after an underwhelming Padres debut in 2022, he hit about as expected in 2023. Tatis Jr. turned out to be an excellent corner outfielder and stayed healthy, and while Machado had some ups and downs and will play some DH in 2024 due to his elbow injury, he’s unlikely to be a problem for the Friars.
The next tier of hitters is as good as the best players on some teams. Ha-Seong Kim made a great case for 2021 being his outlier season, not 2022. Xander Bogaerts still ended up with a season right about where reasonable expectations where, and Trent Grisham is at least average in center field, though he should be banned from bunting on his own volition. If the catcher pairing and Jake Cronenworth are the weakest parts of your lineup, you’re doing a pretty good job.
That being said, there are serious concerns on the horizon. Soto is a free agent at the end of the year, which is why he’s coming up a lot in trade talks. That free agency is quite short on offensive talent just increases the incentives for the Padres to trade him for pitching help and/or farm system restocking. A lot of the organization’s depth has been whittled away over recent years, so the team is susceptible to injuries, and while the farm system has bounced back a bit — it was pretty depleted from myriad trades — many of the best prospects aren’t likely to be options over the next few years. One exception is Jackson Merrill, though with Bogaerts and Machado signed to the end of time, it’s uncertain where he will break into the majors.
Pitchers
Here’s where there should be many furrowed brows. At one point a few years ago, the Padres were entering the season with seven or eight viable starting pitchers, but it’s hard to envision that being even close to the case this upcoming spring. Joe Musgrove is their best pitcher now, but that comes with a pretty significant “but” in the form of a shoulder injury that ended his season prematurely and kept him from participating in the team’s doomed last-gasp run to sneak into the playoffs. Yu Darvish, meanwhile, is showing signs of decline, which is unsurprising for a pitcher who will be 38 by the end of the next season.
It gets cloudier from here, to be kind. ZiPS projects only six Padres with an ERA+ above 100, and the two best of them, Blake Snell and Josh Hader, are no longer actually employed by the team. The rest of the rotation is a bevy of sixth starters, better suited to be Plan Bs and not the guys you actually want to start the season in the rotation. ZiPS is quite intrigued by Robby Snelling, but he’s realistically a year or so away, with Dylan Lesko a little farther.
It’s not hard to see why the Padres have been interested in trading Soto if it gets them pitching help. Unlike the vast majority of franchises in history, their collapsed cable deal likely means that there’s a lot of truth to the Padres being at their limits on how much they can invest in the team. With revenues uncertain and some ownership changes coming given the recent passing of Peter Seidler, it doesn’t strike me as likely that they’ll spike a $300 million payroll. And to sign the pitchers in free agency that they need, that’s probably what they would have to do with Soto on the roster.
ZiPS wants nothing to do with the bullpen. Enyel De Los Santos and Tom Cosgrove project as the best of the lot, but neither bring to the table what Hader did. The computer was always “in” on Robert Suarez, going back to the moment he was signed, but it’s a bit worried now, as an elbow injury and losing a third of your strikeout rate are inauspicious signs. Even if Suarez isn’t a problem, the rest of the bullpen looks to be, and it’s not just ZiPS being mean; Steamer is only slightly gentler on the Pads.
Right now, the Padres look like a high-80s win team with a decently high ceiling if they get some uncharacteristically good fortune in 2024. The future of this team remains complicated. Those answers will not be known when this article goes live.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Juan Soto
660
.276
.424
.503
162
.226
.298
-3
5.8
.397
115
Fernando Tatis Jr.
624
.268
.342
.528
142
.259
.299
9
5.5
.367
107
Manny Machado
603
.269
.335
.469
125
.200
.295
5
4.1
.342
87
Xander Bogaerts
625
.275
.346
.424
117
.149
.319
0
4.1
.335
84
Ha-Seong Kim
548
.246
.327
.383
101
.138
.291
11
3.5
.312
67
Trent Grisham
537
.218
.323
.392
102
.174
.275
7
2.9
.315
62
Jake Cronenworth
564
.249
.329
.412
109
.163
.287
3
1.7
.321
69
Gary Sánchez
393
.211
.300
.419
101
.208
.250
-3
1.5
.311
44
Eguy Rosario
443
.238
.300
.385
93
.146
.301
4
1.4
.298
51
Jackson Merrill
493
.252
.290
.386
90
.134
.283
0
1.4
.292
54
Graham Pauley
537
.243
.308
.391
97
.147
.292
-2
1.3
.305
62
Jakob Marsee
540
.220
.325
.336
89
.116
.273
-2
1.3
.298
57
Mason McCoy
472
.207
.270
.333
70
.126
.299
9
1.3
.265
42
Matthew Batten
488
.225
.302
.314
76
.089
.306
4
1.2
.277
46
Luis Campusano
339
.257
.313
.405
102
.148
.293
-4
1.1
.312
40
Ripken Reyes
463
.226
.333
.301
82
.075
.283
-2
0.8
.293
43
Brett Sullivan
368
.246
.302
.368
89
.123
.279
-3
0.8
.291
39
Preston Tucker
270
.232
.330
.382
102
.150
.280
2
0.8
.314
30
Jantzen Witte
404
.224
.280
.346
77
.122
.300
6
0.7
.275
38
Matt Carpenter
234
.211
.338
.402
109
.191
.282
1
0.7
.326
27
Rougned Odor
354
.212
.294
.389
92
.177
.258
-1
0.7
.298
38
Rangel Ravelo
261
.256
.349
.381
107
.126
.297
0
0.7
.324
30
Luis Liberato
342
.225
.298
.368
88
.142
.305
1
0.6
.291
35
Austin Nola
270
.238
.321
.336
87
.098
.286
-2
0.6
.294
26
Nelson Cruz
398
.247
.317
.407
104
.160
.312
0
0.6
.311
47
José Iglesias
376
.260
.298
.362
86
.102
.301
-3
0.6
.288
39
Ji Man Choi
315
.223
.327
.401
106
.178
.295
-1
0.5
.319
36
Garrett Cooper
407
.245
.314
.406
103
.161
.325
-1
0.5
.314
47
Ray-Patrick Didder
396
.203
.295
.309
72
.106
.288
-1
0.5
.274
37
Connor Hollis
388
.235
.311
.328
82
.093
.313
-3
0.5
.286
39
Brandon Valenzuela
369
.208
.285
.307
68
.099
.290
2
0.4
.266
30
Taylor Kohlwey
501
.237
.317
.332
85
.095
.300
3
0.4
.290
50
Daniel Johnson
467
.232
.291
.384
90
.152
.299
-6
0.4
.293
52
Tim Lopes
461
.225
.293
.338
79
.113
.303
-2
0.3
.279
47
Ben Gamel
372
.231
.321
.363
94
.132
.305
-1
0.3
.303
40
Homer Bush
196
.249
.321
.324
84
.075
.301
1
0.3
.291
20
Tyler Wade
398
.227
.304
.307
74
.080
.304
-4
0.3
.275
41
Nik McClaughry
108
.237
.321
.366
95
.129
.288
-1
0.3
.304
12
Max Schrock
201
.258
.308
.382
95
.124
.301
-3
0.3
.302
23
Michael De La Cruz
331
.227
.290
.327
75
.100
.283
-2
0.2
.274
29
José Azocar
403
.237
.278
.340
74
.104
.309
1
0.2
.270
42
Nathan Martorella
562
.230
.304
.375
92
.146
.277
0
0.2
.298
58
Jurickson Profar
514
.236
.322
.362
94
.127
.274
-5
0.1
.304
54
Marcos Castañon
531
.217
.281
.364
81
.147
.285
-3
0.1
.281
50
Tirso Ornelas
529
.233
.297
.346
82
.113
.298
4
0.1
.283
51
Korry Howell
320
.189
.270
.311
65
.122
.308
3
0.1
.260
28
Brandon Dixon
327
.225
.281
.409
93
.185
.321
-1
0.0
.297
36
Chandler Seagle
252
.182
.231
.251
37
.069
.288
8
0.0
.217
14
Evan Mendoza
355
.222
.280
.272
58
.049
.290
2
-0.1
.249
27
Kervin Pichardo
316
.199
.280
.317
69
.117
.287
-4
-0.2
.268
26
Cal Mitchell
427
.232
.286
.360
82
.128
.303
0
-0.2
.283
42
Colton Bender
162
.186
.277
.257
53
.071
.289
-1
-0.2
.247
11
Yorman Rodriguez
362
.253
.288
.368
85
.115
.292
0
-0.3
.285
37
Tucupita Marcano
389
.235
.295
.340
80
.105
.278
-9
-0.3
.281
39
Juan Zabala
247
.212
.270
.306
63
.095
.295
-4
-0.4
.257
20
Joshua Mears
296
.162
.247
.343
65
.181
.298
3
-0.4
.259
25
Jarryd Dale
442
.196
.270
.270
54
.073
.295
4
-0.5
.246
33
Cole Cummings
398
.202
.279
.329
72
.126
.286
1
-0.6
.270
33
Ethan Salas
305
.203
.259
.331
66
.128
.288
-6
-0.7
.259
25
Grant Little
215
.208
.285
.250
54
.042
.286
1
-0.7
.248
16
Pedro Castellanos
396
.231
.270
.332
70
.102
.289
3
-0.7
.264
34
Jorge Oña
197
.182
.249
.315
59
.133
.304
0
-0.8
.250
15
Michael Cantu
146
.158
.233
.203
26
.045
.290
-2
-0.9
.204
7
Jose Sanabria
176
.200
.267
.263
52
.063
.307
-2
-1.0
.241
12
Robert Perez Jr.
521
.217
.284
.359
81
.142
.310
-7
-1.1
.283
49
Juan Fernandez
418
.227
.288
.311
70
.084
.274
-10
-1.2
.268
36
Tyler Robertson
377
.202
.262
.322
65
.120
.309
-4
-1.2
.258
32
Griffin Doersching
431
.194
.278
.343
75
.149
.290
-4
-1.2
.274
37
Carlos Luis
390
.225
.267
.315
65
.090
.300
0
-1.3
.256
31
Nick Vogt
324
.191
.246
.299
54
.107
.300
-1
-1.4
.241
25
Brantley Bell
219
.191
.242
.260
43
.069
.284
-5
-1.4
.223
15
Lucas Dunn
482
.191
.272
.274
56
.084
.291
1
-1.6
.248
36
Justin Farmer
417
.179
.259
.262
49
.083
.297
1
-1.6
.238
29
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Juan Soto
.302
.459
.560
183
7.5
.253
.397
.453
143
4.4
Fernando Tatis Jr.
.295
.367
.593
167
7.4
.244
.313
.467
120
3.8
Manny Machado
.295
.362
.523
147
5.7
.243
.307
.422
106
2.6
Xander Bogaerts
.300
.371
.469
135
5.5
.249
.318
.382
99
2.6
Ha-Seong Kim
.272
.353
.428
119
4.9
.221
.300
.337
84
2.2
Trent Grisham
.240
.346
.445
121
4.1
.194
.297
.346
85
1.6
Jake Cronenworth
.273
.351
.460
129
3.0
.224
.304
.365
90
0.2
Gary Sánchez
.236
.328
.485
125
2.6
.183
.273
.359
80
0.5
Eguy Rosario
.263
.326
.433
113
2.6
.216
.277
.342
76
0.5
Jackson Merrill
.279
.315
.434
110
2.7
.228
.267
.346
73
0.3
Graham Pauley
.267
.330
.445
114
2.5
.220
.283
.354
79
0.2
Jakob Marsee
.242
.350
.381
107
2.5
.195
.300
.299
72
0.2
Mason McCoy
.235
.298
.385
92
2.6
.182
.244
.293
54
0.3
Matthew Batten
.254
.328
.359
91
2.3
.200
.275
.274
56
0.0
Luis Campusano
.286
.341
.461
126
2.1
.232
.290
.357
85
0.5
Ripken Reyes
.248
.356
.334
97
1.6
.201
.309
.267
66
-0.1
Brett Sullivan
.276
.333
.418
109
1.8
.217
.273
.323
67
-0.2
Preston Tucker
.257
.358
.433
123
1.4
.205
.303
.329
79
0.0
Jantzen Witte
.254
.308
.390
96
1.7
.200
.257
.302
59
-0.1
Matt Carpenter
.237
.372
.463
130
1.4
.185
.307
.339
84
0.0
Rougned Odor
.239
.318
.443
112
1.6
.185
.268
.338
72
-0.1
Rangel Ravelo
.285
.375
.428
126
1.3
.226
.319
.335
89
0.0
Luis Liberato
.248
.325
.412
107
1.4
.199
.267
.324
68
-0.2
Austin Nola
.269
.351
.379
106
1.3
.208
.295
.290
67
0.0
Nelson Cruz
.273
.345
.459
123
1.6
.219
.289
.359
85
-0.4
José Iglesias
.287
.323
.395
102
1.3
.233
.272
.319
67
-0.3
Ji Man Choi
.245
.352
.451
125
1.2
.197
.302
.352
86
-0.2
Garrett Cooper
.272
.339
.455
120
1.4
.218
.285
.353
82
-0.5
Ray-Patrick Didder
.230
.326
.363
93
1.6
.178
.270
.269
55
-0.3
Connor Hollis
.263
.336
.368
100
1.3
.206
.282
.285
63
-0.5
Brandon Valenzuela
.240
.312
.361
91
1.5
.180
.255
.264
50
-0.4
Taylor Kohlwey
.264
.343
.369
101
1.4
.215
.295
.293
68
-0.7
Daniel Johnson
.257
.315
.437
110
1.5
.206
.261
.337
70
-0.9
Tim Lopes
.248
.322
.380
97
1.4
.197
.266
.294
60
-0.9
Ben Gamel
.260
.348
.412
113
1.2
.205
.291
.312
73
-0.7
Homer Bush
.277
.349
.358
100
0.7
.221
.296
.289
69
-0.2
Tyler Wade
.255
.329
.348
91
1.2
.204
.281
.269
57
-0.7
Nik McClaughry
.274
.355
.431
121
0.6
.202
.286
.309
69
-0.1
Max Schrock
.288
.337
.434
116
0.8
.227
.276
.337
73
-0.3
Michael De La Cruz
.258
.327
.375
96
1.1
.200
.262
.279
55
-0.7
José Azocar
.261
.301
.384
93
1.1
.211
.250
.298
57
-0.8
Nathan Martorella
.260
.331
.421
113
1.7
.204
.278
.325
73
-1.2
Jurickson Profar
.259
.350
.408
114
1.4
.214
.299
.321
77
-1.0
Marcos Castañon
.243
.306
.409
98
1.2
.194
.256
.318
63
-1.1
Tirso Ornelas
.262
.325
.389
102
1.4
.211
.275
.308
68
-0.9
Korry Howell
.219
.300
.363
86
1.0
.160
.245
.269
48
-0.7
Brandon Dixon
.255
.306
.466
114
0.8
.199
.253
.353
73
-0.8
Chandler Seagle
.212
.262
.294
57
0.6
.154
.202
.215
18
-0.7
Evan Mendoza
.244
.306
.299
72
0.7
.196
.258
.240
45
-0.7
Kervin Pichardo
.230
.313
.386
97
0.9
.171
.251
.271
50
-0.9
Cal Mitchell
.254
.308
.405
99
0.7
.207
.259
.319
64
-1.2
Colton Bender
.213
.309
.307
75
0.2
.156
.246
.218
34
-0.7
Yorman Rodriguez
.275
.311
.415
103
0.6
.228
.263
.326
67
-1.1
Tucupita Marcano
.263
.323
.382
99
0.7
.212
.271
.300
63
-1.1
Juan Zabala
.243
.301
.362
86
0.3
.181
.243
.267
46
-1.0
Joshua Mears
.191
.276
.411
89
0.4
.130
.217
.283
41
-1.4
Jarryd Dale
.220
.293
.310
70
0.4
.167
.245
.230
37
-1.5
Cole Cummings
.226
.304
.376
92
0.4
.180
.253
.283
56
-1.4
Ethan Salas
.234
.291
.390
90
0.3
.175
.231
.275
44
-1.5
Grant Little
.236
.312
.282
69
-0.3
.184
.259
.218
38
-1.2
Pedro Castellanos
.258
.296
.387
92
0.4
.205
.245
.295
53
-1.7
Jorge Oña
.207
.271
.363
77
-0.3
.158
.223
.265
37
-1.3
Michael Cantu
.190
.273
.243
47
-0.5
.131
.199
.167
6
-1.3
Jose Sanabria
.227
.296
.301
70
-0.5
.174
.240
.226
35
-1.3
Robert Perez Jr.
.241
.306
.404
99
0.1
.192
.261
.315
63
-2.2
Juan Fernandez
.255
.313
.353
90
-0.1
.204
.264
.276
54
-2.0
Tyler Robertson
.225
.286
.369
83
-0.4
.176
.238
.279
48
-2.0
Griffin Doersching
.221
.304
.391
93
-0.2
.168
.252
.298
56
-2.2
Carlos Luis
.247
.292
.352
82
-0.5
.200
.242
.278
48
-2.2
Nick Vogt
.220
.275
.339
73
-0.6
.168
.222
.260
38
-2.1
Brantley Bell
.218
.268
.299
61
-0.9
.167
.217
.224
26
-1.9
Lucas Dunn
.217
.299
.313
73
-0.6
.164
.249
.237
39
-2.7
Justin Farmer
.207
.286
.299
67
-0.7
.155
.233
.222
32
-2.6
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Juan Soto
.262
.396
.451
.283
.437
.527
Fernando Tatis Jr.
.275
.360
.534
.265
.333
.525
Manny Machado
.272
.346
.462
.267
.330
.471
Xander Bogaerts
.281
.357
.431
.273
.341
.422
Ha-Seong Kim
.257
.345
.411
.239
.317
.367
Trent Grisham
.221
.319
.385
.217
.324
.395
Jake Cronenworth
.242
.321
.403
.253
.332
.417
Gary Sánchez
.211
.304
.422
.211
.299
.418
Eguy Rosario
.248
.317
.406
.229
.283
.363
Jackson Merrill
.245
.283
.364
.255
.293
.396
Graham Pauley
.232
.298
.377
.248
.312
.396
Jakob Marsee
.209
.315
.326
.224
.329
.340
Mason McCoy
.209
.279
.333
.206
.262
.333
Matthew Batten
.241
.324
.340
.212
.284
.294
Luis Campusano
.265
.327
.434
.251
.302
.383
Ripken Reyes
.217
.329
.290
.231
.334
.308
Brett Sullivan
.229
.285
.344
.256
.313
.384
Preston Tucker
.226
.329
.371
.234
.330
.386
Jantzen Witte
.229
.291
.363
.221
.273
.333
Matt Carpenter
.208
.317
.377
.213
.345
.411
Rougned Odor
.209
.301
.374
.213
.291
.396
Rangel Ravelo
.261
.365
.375
.252
.338
.385
Luis Liberato
.216
.287
.353
.231
.305
.376
Austin Nola
.244
.330
.367
.234
.315
.317
Nelson Cruz
.259
.336
.407
.242
.308
.407
José Iglesias
.264
.299
.355
.258
.297
.365
Ji Man Choi
.203
.304
.356
.229
.333
.414
Garrett Cooper
.252
.321
.423
.242
.311
.398
Ray-Patrick Didder
.211
.302
.322
.198
.290
.299
Connor Hollis
.245
.324
.351
.227
.301
.309
Brandon Valenzuela
.209
.290
.288
.207
.280
.321
Taylor Kohlwey
.231
.311
.325
.240
.321
.336
Daniel Johnson
.220
.281
.374
.237
.295
.388
Tim Lopes
.229
.302
.352
.223
.286
.328
Ben Gamel
.217
.309
.337
.236
.325
.372
Homer Bush
.250
.325
.333
.248
.319
.317
Tyler Wade
.219
.292
.281
.230
.308
.316
Nik McClaughry
.237
.326
.342
.236
.317
.382
Max Schrock
.245
.298
.340
.263
.313
.398
Michael De La Cruz
.220
.282
.320
.230
.294
.330
José Azocar
.237
.281
.358
.236
.274
.325
Nathan Martorella
.226
.301
.365
.231
.306
.379
Jurickson Profar
.235
.327
.360
.236
.319
.363
Marcos Castañon
.225
.300
.393
.212
.267
.345
Tirso Ornelas
.220
.282
.314
.240
.305
.361
Korry Howell
.194
.275
.339
.185
.265
.290
Brandon Dixon
.232
.293
.429
.220
.275
.398
Chandler Seagle
.184
.238
.255
.180
.225
.248
Evan Mendoza
.231
.299
.288
.213
.260
.256
Kervin Pichardo
.202
.289
.316
.198
.274
.317
Cal Mitchell
.224
.276
.336
.236
.292
.372
Colton Bender
.193
.303
.281
.181
.258
.241
Yorman Rodriguez
.260
.303
.390
.247
.276
.349
Tucupita Marcano
.226
.286
.330
.239
.300
.345
Juan Zabala
.222
.293
.333
.205
.254
.288
Joshua Mears
.164
.254
.353
.161
.241
.336
Jarryd Dale
.197
.279
.275
.196
.260
.263
Cole Cummings
.193
.273
.325
.207
.281
.331
Ethan Salas
.195
.250
.312
.206
.262
.338
Grant Little
.215
.295
.253
.204
.278
.248
Pedro Castellanos
.238
.276
.350
.225
.265
.319
Jorge Oña
.192
.267
.321
.175
.234
.311
Michael Cantu
.158
.238
.175
.158
.229
.224
Jose Sanabria
.197
.274
.258
.202
.262
.266
Robert Perez Jr.
.224
.291
.370
.211
.279
.351
Juan Fernandez
.228
.295
.316
.227
.283
.307
Tyler Robertson
.208
.265
.328
.198
.260
.319
Griffin Doersching
.192
.287
.336
.195
.273
.347
Carlos Luis
.212
.260
.280
.231
.270
.332
Nick Vogt
.191
.250
.287
.191
.244
.306
Brantley Bell
.198
.253
.272
.187
.235
.252
Lucas Dunn
.197
.284
.292
.187
.264
.262
Justin Farmer
.185
.275
.293
.175
.247
.240
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Blake Snell
160.3
11.5
4.4
1.0
11.5%
29.7%
.285
120
3.70
84
3.2
Joe Musgrove
141.3
8.5
2.2
1.0
5.9%
23.0%
.283
119
3.82
84
2.8
Yu Darvish
145.3
8.7
2.4
1.2
6.4%
23.5%
.276
102
4.00
98
1.9
Seth Lugo
119.0
8.2
2.7
1.4
7.2%
21.5%
.287
99
4.39
101
1.3
Michael Wacha
119.3
8.0
2.7
1.4
7.2%
21.1%
.279
97
4.53
103
1.3
Josh Hader
55.3
13.0
3.7
1.1
10.2%
35.4%
.265
130
3.42
77
1.0
Matt Waldron
116.3
7.4
2.7
1.3
7.1%
19.4%
.289
90
4.54
111
0.8
Adam Mazur
87.7
7.6
3.4
1.2
8.7%
19.6%
.288
91
4.48
110
0.6
Robby Snelling
98.3
7.0
3.7
1.2
9.4%
18.2%
.280
88
4.66
114
0.6
Pedro Avila
95.3
8.1
4.2
1.1
10.7%
20.5%
.285
89
4.76
112
0.6
Glenn Otto
87.7
8.9
4.0
1.2
10.3%
23.0%
.283
87
4.59
115
0.5
Jairo Iriarte
86.3
9.3
4.5
1.3
11.4%
23.7%
.281
88
4.84
114
0.4
Enyel De Los Santos
64.0
8.9
3.1
1.1
8.2%
23.6%
.269
102
4.08
98
0.4
Ryan Bergert
92.3
7.3
3.9
1.3
9.9%
18.6%
.283
86
4.83
116
0.4
Jose Espada
66.3
9.5
4.7
1.4
12.0%
24.0%
.286
90
4.78
111
0.3
Jared Kollar
75.3
6.0
3.1
1.3
8.0%
15.3%
.283
84
4.98
119
0.2
Efrain Contreras
80.3
8.3
4.1
1.3
10.4%
20.8%
.291
84
4.92
120
0.2
Tom Cosgrove
53.7
9.6
4.0
1.2
10.5%
24.9%
.275
100
4.39
100
0.2
Adrian Morejon
40.3
8.7
3.3
1.3
8.7%
22.5%
.288
95
4.52
105
0.2
Jay Groome
127.3
7.8
5.0
1.1
12.4%
19.3%
.283
81
5.00
123
0.2
Alek Jacob
43.3
8.9
3.1
1.2
8.2%
23.6%
.282
97
4.46
103
0.2
Drew Carlton
49.0
8.1
3.1
1.3
8.2%
21.2%
.283
95
4.42
105
0.1
Steven Wilson
50.7
9.9
4.3
1.2
11.1%
25.9%
.268
99
4.44
101
0.1
Rich Hill
119.7
7.4
3.1
1.7
8.0%
19.1%
.282
81
5.24
123
0.1
Reiss Knehr
68.7
8.0
4.5
1.2
11.2%
20.1%
.282
83
4.89
120
0.1
Moises Lugo
60.0
9.9
5.1
1.2
12.7%
24.7%
.286
90
4.69
112
0.1
Ray Kerr
54.3
10.6
4.8
1.3
12.0%
26.6%
.294
94
4.58
107
0.0
Daniel Camarena
64.7
5.4
2.5
1.4
6.3%
13.7%
.299
80
5.03
124
0.0
Gabe Mosser
53.3
6.1
3.0
1.5
7.6%
15.3%
.294
80
5.22
126
0.0
Logan Gillaspie
53.0
7.5
3.1
1.2
7.9%
19.2%
.297
91
4.50
110
0.0
Anderson Espinoza
105.7
7.5
4.8
1.3
11.8%
18.5%
.285
79
5.31
127
0.0
Robert Suarez
40.7
9.1
4.0
1.3
10.5%
23.8%
.264
91
4.71
110
0.0
Jeremiah Estrada
42.0
10.9
5.1
1.3
12.9%
27.4%
.287
94
4.54
106
-0.1
Edwuin Bencomo
63.0
5.6
2.4
1.3
6.2%
14.3%
.286
83
4.92
121
-0.1
Aaron Leasher
63.7
7.1
5.1
1.3
12.4%
17.2%
.292
79
5.41
126
-0.1
Aaron Brooks
59.0
6.4
2.9
1.4
7.5%
16.5%
.293
83
4.93
121
-0.1
Bobby Milacki
66.0
6.5
3.3
1.4
8.3%
16.6%
.289
84
5.04
118
-0.1
Lake Bachar
60.0
7.8
4.1
1.4
10.0%
19.3%
.295
84
4.97
119
-0.1
Nick Hernandez
54.0
9.0
4.2
1.2
10.8%
23.4%
.278
90
4.50
112
-0.2
Duncan Snider
43.0
6.1
5.2
1.3
12.6%
14.6%
.287
74
5.67
135
-0.2
Nolan Watson
98.7
5.4
4.0
1.3
10.0%
13.3%
.289
77
5.52
129
-0.2
Jason Blanchard
46.0
8.6
4.5
1.4
11.2%
21.5%
.295
86
4.95
117
-0.3
Luis García
48.7
8.5
4.1
1.3
10.1%
21.1%
.297
87
4.84
115
-0.3
Gabe Morales
49.3
9.7
7.3
1.3
17.0%
22.6%
.287
76
5.51
131
-0.3
Brian Gonzalez
31.3
8.3
5.7
1.4
13.9%
20.1%
.284
74
5.68
135
-0.3
Angel Sánchez
43.7
7.2
4.7
1.4
11.4%
17.4%
.290
75
5.52
133
-0.3
Nick Duron
32.3
9.2
6.4
1.4
15.2%
21.9%
.287
80
5.45
124
-0.3
Jose Quezada
28.0
7.7
4.8
1.3
11.9%
19.0%
.284
78
5.33
128
-0.3
Sean Poppen
55.7
7.1
3.7
1.3
9.3%
17.8%
.296
83
5.05
120
-0.4
Mason Fox
36.3
8.9
5.4
1.2
13.3%
21.8%
.290
81
4.96
123
-0.4
Seth Mayberry
43.0
9.0
5.0
1.3
12.4%
22.3%
.291
84
5.02
120
-0.4
Tim Hill
42.3
5.7
2.8
1.3
7.1%
14.8%
.287
79
5.03
127
-0.4
Kevin Kopps
61.7
8.0
4.7
1.2
11.4%
19.6%
.288
84
5.01
120
-0.4
Raul Brito
49.3
8.4
4.9
1.3
12.0%
20.4%
.288
82
5.18
122
-0.5
James Bourque
23.7
10.3
8.0
1.5
17.9%
23.1%
.295
66
6.09
151
-0.5
Domingo Tapia
42.3
7.7
5.7
1.3
13.8%
18.5%
.285
76
5.45
132
-0.5
Jake Sanchez
48.3
7.8
4.7
1.5
11.6%
19.5%
.293
80
5.34
125
-0.5
Michel Baez
40.0
7.0
5.2
1.4
12.4%
16.7%
.283
75
5.83
134
-0.6
Henry Henry
55.0
6.4
5.7
1.3
13.6%
15.1%
.287
75
5.80
134
-0.6
Eric Hanhold
48.0
7.9
5.4
1.3
12.9%
18.8%
.288
77
5.40
130
-0.6
Justin Lopez
38.7
7.0
5.8
1.4
14.1%
16.9%
.278
72
5.97
139
-0.7
Sean Reynolds
55.7
8.2
6.1
1.3
14.8%
19.8%
.282
75
5.55
132
-0.8
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Blake Snell
.192
.266
.280
.214
.313
.364
4.5
1.5
2.78
4.21
Joe Musgrove
.237
.303
.391
.233
.283
.364
3.6
1.9
2.95
3.90
Yu Darvish
.240
.299
.393
.220
.278
.378
3.0
0.8
3.28
4.82
Seth Lugo
.236
.307
.403
.258
.301
.440
2.1
0.4
3.60
4.69
Michael Wacha
.224
.291
.380
.261
.309
.459
2.0
0.4
3.66
4.79
Josh Hader
.161
.266
.250
.194
.282
.368
1.9
0.0
2.22
4.14
Matt Waldron
.243
.306
.414
.264
.317
.439
1.8
0.1
3.88
5.04
Adam Mazur
.267
.340
.449
.234
.286
.383
1.2
-0.1
3.88
5.10
Robby Snelling
.270
.333
.405
.239
.313
.412
1.2
-0.2
4.08
5.16
Pedro Avila
.252
.346
.387
.235
.327
.408
1.2
-0.1
4.02
5.13
Glenn Otto
.235
.327
.403
.235
.321
.401
1.2
-0.3
4.01
5.41
Jairo Iriarte
.227
.341
.383
.234
.332
.411
1.2
-0.2
4.03
5.09
Enyel De Los Santos
.222
.309
.370
.224
.281
.381
1.0
-0.3
3.35
4.89
Ryan Bergert
.256
.337
.432
.245
.316
.408
1.0
-0.2
4.24
5.23
Jose Espada
.263
.361
.456
.213
.304
.369
0.8
-0.4
3.88
5.30
Jared Kollar
.269
.335
.428
.255
.315
.451
0.7
-0.3
4.26
5.36
Efrain Contreras
.257
.356
.436
.243
.320
.422
0.8
-0.5
4.27
5.57
Tom Cosgrove
.197
.288
.352
.237
.331
.397
0.8
-0.4
3.15
5.00
Adrian Morejon
.224
.296
.327
.252
.325
.467
0.5
-0.1
3.64
4.94
Jay Groome
.268
.367
.430
.234
.335
.393
1.1
-0.8
4.41
5.57
Alek Jacob
.253
.341
.453
.220
.294
.363
0.5
-0.2
3.43
4.88
Drew Carlton
.256
.326
.419
.233
.292
.408
0.5
-0.3
3.55
4.92
Steven Wilson
.230
.337
.368
.204
.291
.388
0.7
-0.5
3.37
4.94
Rich Hill
.245
.333
.418
.260
.322
.471
0.9
-0.8
4.33
5.75
Reiss Knehr
.241
.331
.422
.242
.341
.383
0.5
-0.6
4.35
5.67
Moises Lugo
.260
.370
.440
.203
.309
.352
0.6
-0.5
3.86
5.26
Ray Kerr
.206
.316
.338
.243
.340
.436
0.6
-0.6
3.56
5.15
Daniel Camarena
.266
.314
.405
.288
.340
.495
0.4
-0.4
4.52
5.54
Gabe Mosser
.282
.348
.447
.268
.320
.482
0.3
-0.4
4.59
5.76
Logan Gillaspie
.255
.321
.418
.261
.325
.423
0.4
-0.4
3.83
5.14
Anderson Espinoza
.261
.368
.450
.241
.338
.397
0.6
-0.8
4.69
5.70
Robert Suarez
.227
.326
.413
.218
.303
.385
0.5
-0.7
3.40
5.94
Jeremiah Estrada
.247
.360
.438
.200
.303
.353
0.3
-0.5
3.64
5.12
Edwuin Bencomo
.267
.328
.466
.267
.320
.415
0.3
-0.5
4.30
5.45
Aaron Leasher
.253
.362
.392
.262
.357
.442
0.4
-0.6
4.55
5.76
Aaron Brooks
.263
.325
.456
.273
.331
.438
0.3
-0.6
4.23
5.59
Bobby Milacki
.244
.319
.398
.281
.344
.475
0.3
-0.6
4.25
5.36
Lake Bachar
.266
.367
.422
.250
.312
.445
0.4
-0.7
4.20
5.54
Nick Hernandez
.256
.346
.467
.209
.298
.330
0.4
-0.7
3.77
5.37
Duncan Snider
.277
.388
.470
.250
.343
.398
0.1
-0.5
4.94
6.08
Nolan Watson
.285
.374
.477
.260
.340
.417
0.2
-0.9
4.83
5.78
Jason Blanchard
.246
.338
.333
.252
.340
.472
0.1
-0.7
4.12
5.48
Luis García
.274
.365
.440
.234
.320
.411
0.2
-0.8
3.78
5.74
Gabe Morales
.203
.338
.288
.246
.385
.454
0.2
-0.9
4.48
6.23
Brian Gonzalez
.231
.362
.333
.253
.364
.482
-0.1
-0.6
4.89
6.45
Angel Sánchez
.256
.365
.439
.264
.346
.451
0.0
-0.8
4.70
6.31
Nick Duron
.232
.368
.411
.246
.354
.435
-0.1
-0.7
4.36
5.92
Jose Quezada
.250
.368
.375
.246
.338
.475
-0.1
-0.7
4.46
6.06
Sean Poppen
.281
.375
.458
.248
.317
.416
0.1
-0.8
4.29
5.60
Mason Fox
.250
.375
.433
.235
.323
.395
0.0
-0.8
4.25
5.90
Seth Mayberry
.233
.356
.356
.247
.343
.452
0.0
-0.7
4.25
5.44
Tim Hill
.242
.315
.333
.282
.342
.505
-0.1
-0.8
4.39
5.87
Kevin Kopps
.238
.341
.448
.252
.350
.370
0.0
-1.0
4.31
5.55
Raul Brito
.270
.381
.416
.223
.325
.417
-0.1
-1.0
4.39
5.79
James Bourque
.244
.414
.422
.234
.362
.426
-0.3
-0.9
5.15
7.92
Domingo Tapia
.247
.375
.452
.250
.346
.402
-0.2
-1.0
4.58
6.28
Jake Sanchez
.270
.369
.494
.248
.330
.406
-0.1
-1.0
4.34
5.91
Michel Baez
.254
.383
.448
.256
.358
.422
-0.3
-1.0
4.82
6.20
Henry Henry
.260
.390
.469
.262
.350
.410
-0.2
-1.0
4.91
6.06
Eric Hanhold
.250
.364
.405
.250
.352
.442
-0.2
-1.2
4.55
6.13
Justin Lopez
.268
.395
.451
.238
.347
.425
-0.4
-1.0
4.98
6.37
Sean Reynolds
.234
.371
.426
.248
.357
.405
-0.3
-1.3
4.74
6.26
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.