For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Batters
The Pirates’ offense wasn’t particularly good in 2023, but they’re at least interesting in some ways. For one, their best offensive players are either signed for a long time (Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes) or are very far from hitting free agency (Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski). Endy Rodriguez, one of the top catching prospects in ZiPS, is going to miss the season with UCL surgery, so it looks like the Pirates are making lemonades out of lemons and giving Henry Davis every chance to stick behind the plate before giving up and stuffing him in a corner somewhere. For a team that won’t spend significant amounts of money no matter what baseball’s economic system is, having that core already banked gives Pittsburgh lots of opportunities to play meaningful September baseball in a weak division.
The reason that the offense won’t be particularly good in 2024 either comes down to the secondary cast, which consists mainly of role players who are stretched as starters. While ZiPS is not especially keen on players like Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, or Liover Peguero, they’re young enough that it’s worth seeing what they can do. It’s certainly a far better idea than signing random veterans; Carlos Santana getting nearly 400 plate appearances wasn’t a terribly productive use of time. The best strategy for the Pirates would be to try to snag more players who are either overlooked by their organizations or without a clear path to playing time, like Jake Alu or Addison Barger, and seeing who sticks. At least Rowdy Tellez isn’t 37.
Pitchers
The big questions here in the short term involve Mitch Keller. Will the Pirates successfully sign him to a long-term extension? If not, will he start the 2024 season in Pittsburgh? Which pitcher is the real Mitch Keller? None of these questions are easy to answer, so all I can say for certain is that the rotation looks a lot less adequate-ish without him in it. Keller’s mystery second half does make evaluating him considerably trickier after he was dynamite in the early going. While home run stats are quite volatile for pitchers, the velocity data does back up the notion that he was far more crushable in the summer. Save crushable for a shandy on a 90-degree day.
The best thing you can say about the rest of the rotation is that ZiPS doesn’t see it as a disaster. There’s nobody that the computer actually hates — Marco Gonzales comes closest — but by the same token, it doesn’t see a lot of real upside from anyone outside of Johan Oviedo (who is out for the year anyway) and Paul Skenes. But mediocrity beats Götterdämmerung, and the rotation’s lumpenproletariat are competent enough and numbered enough to keep the team from the depressing depths of Oakland/Colorado dystopias.
In the bullpen, ZiPS remains skeptical about Colin Holderman; otherwise, it looks like one of those quietly decent relief corps that successful small market teams have a knack for putting together. David Bednar is the big name, but ZiPS also likes Dauri Moreta and Ryan Borucki. You can add Carmen Mlodzinski to that list (3.65 projected ERA as a reliever). The Pirates may not have that many leads to protect, but they ought to do a decent job at preserving those.
Right now, the Pirates look like a 75-win team or so, but one with some players worth watching. Even in a weak division, the Bucs would need a lot of luck to be relevant by the stretch drive. If they want to change that in 2024 without spending a lot of money, Ben Cherington is going to have to put on his clever cap for the rest of the winter.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Bryan Reynolds
B
29
LF
626
553
80
146
28
5
21
84
60
132
8
2
Ke’Bryan Hayes
R
27
3B
515
473
61
121
27
4
11
56
38
103
11
4
Jack Suwinski
L
25
CF
537
452
69
106
21
3
26
73
75
163
10
3
Oneil Cruz
L
25
SS
475
428
70
105
18
5
19
67
43
134
15
5
Endy Rodriguez
B
24
C
500
453
66
113
28
4
10
56
40
100
2
0
Nick Gonzales
R
25
2B
504
450
60
106
29
5
10
61
41
142
3
3
Henry Davis
R
24
C
467
402
53
96
19
2
15
61
47
111
8
6
Jared Triolo
R
26
3B
470
420
55
103
24
2
5
46
45
117
11
3
Connor Joe
R
31
RF
427
369
54
92
22
2
10
38
49
96
3
3
Domingo Leyba
B
28
3B
365
331
37
83
15
2
8
37
28
63
2
1
Tsung-Che Cheng
L
22
SS
540
479
67
116
23
8
6
53
40
118
15
7
Ali Sánchez
R
27
C
295
271
28
68
12
0
5
30
21
62
0
2
Jack Brannigan
R
23
3B
363
323
41
67
11
2
9
40
32
124
10
2
Joshua Palacios
L
28
RF
376
341
45
88
13
2
10
48
26
70
9
3
Eduardo Gonzalez
L
23
CF
523
454
61
109
19
0
4
45
48
105
13
5
Liover Peguero
R
23
SS
549
511
62
121
23
3
11
60
31
127
17
4
Andrew McCutchen
R
37
RF
449
384
53
91
19
0
12
43
58
97
7
2
Alika Williams
R
25
SS
427
388
49
94
18
1
6
37
29
89
4
3
Rowdy Tellez
L
29
1B
494
440
45
107
19
0
20
61
48
100
1
0
Drew Maggi
R
35
3B
312
276
36
61
12
2
3
28
25
86
7
2
Termarr Johnson
L
20
2B
461
387
57
81
14
1
10
44
61
141
5
1
Gilberto Celestino
R
25
CF
339
301
34
72
16
1
4
28
34
69
4
2
Jackson Glenn
R
26
3B
371
342
35
78
18
2
4
38
22
87
4
1
Abrahan Gutierrez
R
24
C
321
288
28
67
15
1
4
32
27
68
1
1
Shawn Ross
R
24
C
227
204
27
35
6
0
7
21
22
104
0
1
Jase Bowen
R
23
CF
521
479
57
106
17
4
10
59
25
153
13
3
Jason Delay
R
29
C
233
213
22
48
12
1
2
19
14
60
1
1
Canaan Smith-Njigba
L
25
LF
431
386
45
90
21
2
8
45
43
123
13
3
Ji Hwan Bae
L
24
2B
444
400
66
96
18
4
4
43
37
99
22
8
Eli Wilson
R
25
C
220
197
23
44
9
1
3
23
16
52
1
1
Chris Owings
R
32
SS
343
308
36
64
13
3
8
31
31
111
3
3
Matt Gorski
R
26
CF
430
397
52
86
18
2
12
51
24
132
13
2
Chavez Young
B
26
CF
361
319
36
69
12
2
4
30
32
91
18
5
Andrés Alvarez
R
27
SS
381
345
39
74
16
1
8
38
28
117
5
2
Francisco Acuna
R
24
3B
226
202
21
44
15
0
1
23
14
50
3
1
Seth Beer
L
27
1B
464
405
50
94
22
0
10
55
34
111
0
1
Mike Jarvis
R
26
2B
367
338
47
75
12
5
5
36
19
82
15
1
Dom Nuñez
L
29
C
273
236
30
46
11
1
5
22
31
82
2
1
Joe Perez
R
24
RF
485
446
53
108
22
1
11
48
36
134
3
2
Carter Bins
R
25
C
260
231
29
45
10
1
5
28
22
93
2
1
Matt Fraizer
L
26
RF
481
445
53
102
18
4
6
46
30
123
10
3
Dylan Shockley
R
27
C
121
107
10
17
3
0
0
8
9
47
0
1
Fabricio Macias
R
26
LF
242
229
23
54
10
1
4
25
9
66
5
3
Malcom Nuñez
R
23
1B
398
360
39
83
14
0
8
41
30
94
1
2
Luke Brown
L
25
RF
231
207
27
43
9
2
3
21
16
70
5
2
Josiah Sightler
L
24
1B
277
253
30
61
6
0
8
31
16
70
1
1
Mason Martin
L
25
1B
459
410
45
82
21
2
15
57
40
178
3
3
Aaron Shackelford
L
27
1B
428
386
42
77
18
2
11
49
34
140
4
1
Grant Koch
R
27
C
221
204
23
40
8
0
3
19
14
64
0
1
Brenden Dixon
R
23
3B
303
267
31
53
10
2
6
29
30
103
1
1
Connor Scott
L
24
LF
390
364
42
82
20
4
4
35
22
98
7
4
Lolo Sanchez
R
25
LF
365
320
40
72
13
0
4
32
30
66
6
4
Sammy Siani
L
23
RF
382
341
39
64
12
1
4
31
34
138
8
4
Will Matthiessen
R
26
1B
387
357
36
70
15
1
6
35
26
143
1
1
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Bryan Reynolds
626
.264
.343
.447
116
.183
.313
3
2.7
.340
87
Ke’Bryan Hayes
515
.256
.313
.400
95
.144
.306
12
2.6
.309
63
Jack Suwinski
537
.235
.346
.467
122
.232
.304
-10
2.3
.349
76
Oneil Cruz
475
.245
.316
.444
107
.199
.313
-3
2.1
.326
65
Endy Rodriguez
500
.249
.314
.395
94
.146
.300
0
1.9
.309
57
Nick Gonzales
504
.236
.310
.389
92
.153
.322
5
1.7
.305
56
Henry Davis
467
.239
.339
.408
105
.169
.293
-8
1.5
.327
60
Jared Triolo
470
.245
.321
.348
85
.102
.329
4
1.3
.298
50
Connor Joe
427
.249
.347
.401
106
.152
.312
2
1.3
.330
53
Domingo Leyba
365
.251
.310
.381
90
.130
.288
5
1.2
.301
40
Tsung-Che Cheng
540
.242
.304
.361
83
.119
.310
1
1.2
.292
59
Ali Sánchez
295
.251
.305
.351
81
.100
.309
5
1.0
.289
30
Jack Brannigan
363
.207
.289
.337
73
.130
.305
8
0.9
.279
34
Joshua Palacios
376
.258
.321
.396
97
.138
.299
2
0.8
.314
46
Eduardo Gonzalez
523
.240
.321
.308
75
.068
.304
4
0.8
.286
50
Liover Peguero
549
.237
.282
.358
75
.121
.295
-1
0.6
.279
57
Andrew McCutchen
449
.237
.339
.380
98
.143
.287
-3
0.6
.318
52
Alika Williams
427
.242
.301
.340
77
.098
.300
0
0.6
.284
42
Rowdy Tellez
494
.243
.320
.423
103
.180
.272
-2
0.6
.318
60
Drew Maggi
312
.221
.303
.312
71
.091
.310
5
0.5
.278
28
Termarr Johnson
461
.209
.324
.328
81
.119
.301
-3
0.5
.295
43
Gilberto Celestino
339
.239
.322
.339
83
.100
.298
-1
0.5
.297
35
Jackson Glenn
371
.228
.282
.327
68
.099
.295
7
0.4
.269
33
Abrahan Gutierrez
321
.233
.308
.333
78
.101
.292
-2
0.4
.287
30
Shawn Ross
227
.172
.251
.304
52
.132
.301
8
0.4
.246
16
Jase Bowen
521
.221
.274
.336
68
.115
.304
6
0.4
.268
48
Jason Delay
233
.225
.281
.319
66
.094
.305
3
0.4
.267
20
Canaan Smith-Njigba
431
.233
.311
.360
85
.127
.322
2
0.4
.296
47
Ji Hwan Bae
444
.240
.308
.335
78
.095
.310
-2
0.3
.286
49
Eli Wilson
220
.223
.294
.325
71
.102
.289
1
0.3
.276
19
Chris Owings
343
.208
.284
.347
73
.140
.296
0
0.2
.277
32
Matt Gorski
430
.217
.266
.363
71
.146
.292
2
0.2
.272
42
Chavez Young
361
.216
.295
.304
66
.088
.290
2
0.2
.270
34
Andrés Alvarez
381
.214
.279
.336
69
.122
.300
0
0.1
.271
34
Francisco Acuna
226
.218
.290
.307
65
.089
.285
3
0.1
.269
19
Seth Beer
464
.232
.321
.360
88
.128
.296
0
0.0
.302
47
Mike Jarvis
367
.222
.278
.331
68
.109
.279
-1
-0.1
.269
35
Dom Nuñez
273
.195
.292
.314
67
.119
.275
-3
-0.1
.271
22
Joe Perez
485
.242
.301
.370
84
.128
.322
-1
-0.1
.294
51
Carter Bins
260
.195
.281
.312
64
.117
.301
-2
-0.1
.267
21
Matt Fraizer
481
.229
.283
.328
68
.099
.304
6
-0.4
.270
45
Dylan Shockley
121
.159
.248
.187
23
.028
.283
2
-0.4
.209
5
Fabricio Macias
242
.236
.273
.341
68
.105
.314
2
-0.4
.268
24
Malcom Nuñez
398
.231
.299
.336
75
.106
.291
2
-0.5
.283
37
Luke Brown
231
.208
.275
.314
62
.106
.299
1
-0.5
.262
20
Josiah Sightler
277
.241
.292
.360
79
.119
.303
-2
-0.6
.284
27
Mason Martin
459
.200
.279
.371
77
.171
.309
1
-0.6
.283
44
Aaron Shackelford
428
.199
.273
.342
69
.142
.281
4
-0.7
.271
37
Grant Koch
221
.196
.253
.279
47
.083
.270
-3
-0.8
.239
15
Brenden Dixon
303
.199
.285
.318
67
.120
.297
-8
-1.0
.270
25
Connor Scott
390
.225
.272
.335
67
.110
.298
0
-1.0
.266
36
Lolo Sanchez
365
.225
.302
.303
68
.078
.272
-3
-1.0
.274
32
Sammy Siani
382
.188
.266
.264
48
.076
.302
2
-1.5
.242
27
Will Matthiessen
387
.196
.253
.294
51
.098
.308
2
-1.6
.243
27
Batters – Top Near-Age Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Bryan Reynolds
.290
.369
.499
136
4.2
.240
.320
.405
100
1.4
Ke’Bryan Hayes
.283
.339
.440
114
3.8
.231
.287
.349
77
1.4
Jack Suwinski
.266
.376
.535
144
3.7
.207
.319
.407
101
1.0
Oneil Cruz
.275
.342
.501
128
3.5
.220
.292
.388
87
1.0
Endy Rodriguez
.277
.339
.442
114
3.2
.222
.288
.349
78
0.9
Nick Gonzales
.261
.334
.443
111
2.8
.212
.285
.346
74
0.6
Henry Davis
.269
.364
.467
125
2.7
.208
.311
.355
85
0.4
Jared Triolo
.272
.350
.393
103
2.4
.218
.291
.307
66
0.2
Connor Joe
.274
.375
.450
124
2.3
.224
.321
.349
84
0.2
Domingo Leyba
.279
.339
.430
110
2.1
.223
.284
.335
73
0.4
Tsung-Che Cheng
.269
.329
.415
102
2.4
.220
.277
.320
65
0.0
Ali Sánchez
.279
.335
.398
101
1.8
.223
.281
.303
65
0.4
Jack Brannigan
.237
.315
.387
93
1.8
.184
.264
.288
55
0.1
Joshua Palacios
.283
.348
.441
114
1.7
.231
.295
.346
79
0.0
Eduardo Gonzalez
.263
.347
.344
92
1.9
.208
.294
.273
59
-0.3
Liover Peguero
.261
.305
.396
90
1.6
.214
.260
.319
58
-0.6
Andrew McCutchen
.266
.368
.429
117
1.7
.208
.307
.333
78
-0.5
Alika Williams
.269
.328
.384
95
1.5
.214
.278
.303
59
-0.4
Rowdy Tellez
.267
.346
.471
121
1.7
.218
.294
.369
83
-0.7
Drew Maggi
.253
.334
.356
90
1.3
.192
.277
.268
53
-0.2
Termarr Johnson
.245
.349
.387
99
1.5
.186
.294
.286
62
-0.6
Gilberto Celestino
.267
.351
.377
101
1.3
.213
.292
.296
64
-0.4
Jackson Glenn
.258
.312
.377
88
1.4
.202
.254
.289
51
-0.3
Abrahan Gutierrez
.259
.339
.385
99
1.3
.203
.283
.295
63
-0.2
Shawn Ross
.204
.289
.367
77
1.1
.140
.219
.245
29
-0.3
Jase Bowen
.246
.299
.382
85
1.5
.197
.252
.294
50
-0.7
Jason Delay
.262
.313
.371
87
1.0
.194
.248
.274
44
-0.3
Canaan Smith-Njigba
.261
.338
.404
103
1.4
.205
.280
.315
66
-0.7
Ji Hwan Bae
.263
.331
.371
92
1.2
.214
.284
.295
61
-0.6
Eli Wilson
.253
.325
.382
94
0.9
.192
.265
.286
53
-0.3
Chris Owings
.241
.318
.403
95
1.2
.180
.256
.298
52
-0.6
Matt Gorski
.245
.294
.413
93
1.4
.189
.240
.315
53
-0.8
Chavez Young
.245
.322
.346
83
0.9
.188
.268
.267
50
-0.7
Andrés Alvarez
.242
.307
.389
88
1.1
.184
.250
.289
49
-0.7
Francisco Acuna
.247
.318
.360
87
0.7
.188
.261
.261
46
-0.4
Seth Beer
.260
.348
.411
108
1.1
.203
.296
.316
71
-1.0
Mike Jarvis
.251
.308
.386
88
0.9
.194
.253
.286
49
-1.0
Dom Nuñez
.230
.324
.371
89
0.6
.168
.257
.270
47
-0.9
Joe Perez
.267
.324
.414
102
0.9
.219
.276
.332
68
-1.2
Carter Bins
.225
.311
.363
85
0.5
.163
.250
.262
42
-0.9
Matt Fraizer
.254
.309
.366
84
0.6
.208
.259
.295
54
-1.3
Dylan Shockley
.190
.283
.227
42
-0.1
.127
.216
.151
3
-0.7
Fabricio Macias
.264
.299
.390
88
0.2
.211
.249
.303
53
-0.9
Malcom Nuñez
.255
.328
.384
95
0.5
.205
.276
.296
60
-1.3
Luke Brown
.242
.306
.367
85
0.1
.180
.243
.275
44
-1.1
Josiah Sightler
.269
.318
.414
97
0.1
.214
.265
.312
59
-1.2
Mason Martin
.228
.305
.428
98
0.6
.173
.252
.315
57
-1.8
Aaron Shackelford
.229
.297
.391
86
0.3
.174
.245
.294
50
-1.7
Grant Koch
.228
.290
.329
69
-0.2
.163
.221
.227
26
-1.4
Brenden Dixon
.233
.317
.381
90
-0.1
.170
.257
.275
47
-1.7
Connor Scott
.253
.297
.378
83
-0.2
.199
.246
.294
49
-1.9
Lolo Sanchez
.256
.330
.344
86
-0.2
.197
.273
.264
51
-1.8
Sammy Siani
.219
.294
.311
66
-0.6
.159
.238
.228
30
-2.3
Will Matthiessen
.226
.281
.338
69
-0.7
.173
.225
.255
33
-2.5
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Bryan Reynolds
.264
.345
.443
.264
.343
.449
Ke’Bryan Hayes
.265
.326
.424
.251
.305
.386
Jack Suwinski
.223
.331
.419
.240
.354
.490
Oneil Cruz
.232
.299
.411
.253
.325
.462
Endy Rodriguez
.251
.322
.402
.248
.309
.391
Nick Gonzales
.242
.322
.405
.231
.301
.377
Henry Davis
.239
.348
.415
.239
.333
.403
Jared Triolo
.246
.330
.348
.245
.314
.348
Connor Joe
.259
.360
.415
.243
.337
.392
Domingo Leyba
.254
.315
.385
.249
.308
.378
Tsung-Che Cheng
.232
.294
.355
.247
.309
.364
Ali Sánchez
.248
.310
.342
.253
.301
.357
Jack Brannigan
.205
.295
.328
.209
.286
.343
Joshua Palacios
.250
.316
.394
.262
.323
.397
Eduardo Gonzalez
.235
.318
.296
.242
.322
.313
Liover Peguero
.241
.291
.377
.234
.275
.344
Andrew McCutchen
.245
.352
.415
.234
.333
.367
Alika Williams
.236
.302
.333
.247
.300
.345
Rowdy Tellez
.243
.320
.387
.243
.320
.435
Drew Maggi
.225
.314
.304
.217
.292
.319
Termarr Johnson
.204
.314
.291
.211
.327
.342
Gilberto Celestino
.238
.329
.341
.240
.318
.337
Jackson Glenn
.232
.292
.345
.225
.274
.315
Abrahan Gutierrez
.237
.320
.351
.229
.299
.318
Shawn Ross
.179
.274
.321
.167
.235
.292
Jase Bowen
.228
.279
.347
.217
.271
.329
Jason Delay
.231
.293
.341
.221
.273
.303
Canaan Smith-Njigba
.224
.302
.336
.238
.315
.372
Ji Hwan Bae
.237
.298
.340
.242
.314
.332
Eli Wilson
.232
.308
.341
.217
.283
.313
Chris Owings
.210
.291
.362
.207
.280
.340
Matt Gorski
.215
.267
.360
.218
.264
.364
Chavez Young
.216
.298
.320
.216
.294
.294
Andrés Alvarez
.217
.285
.364
.213
.275
.317
Francisco Acuna
.221
.295
.291
.216
.287
.319
Seth Beer
.225
.321
.341
.236
.321
.371
Mike Jarvis
.223
.278
.345
.221
.278
.322
Dom Nuñez
.182
.276
.258
.200
.297
.335
Joe Perez
.237
.304
.372
.247
.298
.368
Carter Bins
.195
.289
.310
.195
.273
.314
Matt Fraizer
.222
.280
.321
.233
.285
.332
Dylan Shockley
.156
.240
.178
.161
.254
.194
Fabricio Macias
.240
.282
.365
.232
.265
.320
Malcom Nuñez
.234
.306
.347
.228
.292
.326
Luke Brown
.190
.262
.310
.215
.280
.315
Josiah Sightler
.239
.286
.338
.242
.295
.368
Mason Martin
.195
.271
.352
.203
.284
.382
Aaron Shackelford
.190
.263
.336
.205
.279
.345
Grant Koch
.193
.260
.273
.198
.248
.284
Brenden Dixon
.196
.293
.308
.200
.279
.325
Connor Scott
.219
.263
.320
.229
.277
.343
Lolo Sanchez
.227
.313
.312
.223
.293
.296
Sammy Siani
.182
.257
.242
.190
.270
.273
Will Matthiessen
.200
.261
.286
.194
.248
.300
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Mitch Keller
166.3
8.5
2.9
1.0
7.6%
22.3%
.303
103
4.01
97
2.5
Johan Oviedo
149.0
8.8
3.7
1.1
9.6%
22.5%
.288
100
4.35
100
2.0
Bailey Falter
113.7
6.7
2.5
1.2
6.4%
17.4%
.291
97
4.39
103
1.5
Jared Jones
119.0
8.0
3.6
1.1
9.1%
20.5%
.292
95
4.41
105
1.4
David Bednar
62.7
10.9
2.7
1.0
7.4%
29.7%
.289
134
3.29
75
1.4
Luis Ortiz
128.3
7.6
3.6
1.2
9.2%
19.1%
.297
93
4.65
108
1.3
Quinn Priester
138.7
7.5
3.6
1.0
9.1%
19.1%
.294
91
4.47
110
1.3
Roansy Contreras
99.7
8.7
3.1
1.1
8.0%
22.6%
.292
98
4.01
102
1.2
Paul Skenes
114.3
6.9
3.1
1.1
8.2%
18.1%
.281
93
4.36
108
1.2
Anthony Solometo
105.3
7.1
3.7
1.1
9.3%
18.0%
.295
92
4.65
109
1.1
Jackson Wolf
106.3
7.3
3.1
1.2
8.1%
18.8%
.292
91
4.51
110
1.1
Sean Sullivan
102.3
6.2
3.3
1.1
8.3%
15.9%
.294
91
4.75
110
1.0
Marco Gonzales
105.3
5.8
2.7
1.4
7.0%
15.0%
.288
90
4.94
111
0.9
Kent Emanuel
79.0
6.2
2.1
1.1
5.4%
16.1%
.300
95
4.37
105
0.9
Braxton Ashcraft
63.7
7.2
2.4
1.1
6.3%
18.9%
.297
100
4.23
100
0.9
JT Brubaker
87.7
8.8
3.2
1.3
8.2%
22.8%
.302
92
4.49
109
0.8
Carmen Mlodzinski
71.7
7.8
3.8
1.0
9.6%
19.8%
.295
99
4.32
101
0.8
Michael Burrows
78.3
6.8
3.4
1.1
8.8%
17.4%
.283
92
4.67
109
0.8
Kyle Nicolas
92.3
8.8
4.7
1.2
11.6%
21.7%
.298
89
4.78
113
0.7
Cam Alldred
86.3
6.8
3.8
1.1
9.5%
17.1%
.292
90
4.87
111
0.6
Andre Jackson
73.3
8.3
4.4
1.2
11.0%
20.9%
.290
91
4.77
110
0.6
Beau Sulser
82.7
5.8
2.9
1.2
7.3%
14.4%
.309
88
4.76
113
0.6
Max Kranick
69.3
6.2
3.1
1.2
7.9%
15.8%
.299
88
4.77
113
0.6
Thomas Hatch
78.7
7.7
3.3
1.1
8.5%
19.6%
.297
90
4.58
111
0.6
Aaron Shortridge
114.7
5.6
3.4
1.3
8.4%
13.9%
.302
83
5.09
121
0.6
Dauri Moreta
62.7
9.9
3.7
1.1
9.8%
26.1%
.277
109
4.10
92
0.6
Vince Velasquez
60.0
9.3
3.8
1.2
9.7%
23.9%
.301
94
4.27
106
0.6
Nick Dombkowski
75.0
5.8
2.8
1.2
7.1%
14.7%
.293
93
4.75
108
0.5
Ryan Borucki
38.7
9.1
3.0
0.9
8.0%
24.1%
.282
114
3.75
88
0.5
Roddery Muñoz
76.0
7.7
4.7
1.2
11.6%
18.8%
.299
87
4.91
115
0.5
Justin Meis
81.0
6.7
4.6
1.1
11.2%
16.4%
.295
85
5.01
118
0.4
Wil Crowe
72.0
7.8
4.3
1.3
10.6%
19.3%
.297
87
4.88
115
0.4
Rob Zastryzny
46.3
8.4
3.3
1.2
8.3%
21.1%
.311
95
4.31
106
0.3
Jose Hernandez
51.3
10.3
4.2
1.2
10.7%
26.3%
.298
101
4.25
99
0.3
Caleb Smith
68.3
7.6
4.2
1.4
10.7%
19.5%
.276
85
5.19
118
0.3
Conner Loeprich
52.7
6.8
3.2
1.2
8.1%
17.0%
.301
92
4.66
109
0.2
Hunter Stratton
59.3
9.4
4.7
1.2
11.7%
23.4%
.296
93
4.69
108
0.2
J.C. Flowers
54.7
6.6
4.4
1.2
10.8%
16.0%
.302
83
5.05
121
0.1
Colin Holderman
50.0
8.1
3.6
1.1
9.2%
20.7%
.294
94
4.40
106
0.1
Noe Toribio
62.3
7.2
4.0
1.0
10.2%
18.2%
.290
86
4.84
116
0.0
Chase De Jong
55.0
7.4
4.3
1.5
10.6%
18.3%
.293
81
5.33
124
0.0
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith
45.3
7.5
3.6
1.2
9.0%
18.9%
.296
93
4.62
108
0.0
Colin Selby
48.3
9.7
5.2
1.1
12.8%
23.7%
.302
87
4.70
114
0.0
Tyler Samaniego
44.7
7.9
4.4
1.0
11.1%
19.6%
.292
88
4.64
114
0.0
Duane Underwood Jr.
51.3
7.4
3.5
1.2
8.8%
18.5%
.303
86
4.74
116
0.0
Will Kobos
28.0
9.3
5.8
1.3
14.1%
22.7%
.293
88
5.08
114
0.0
Bear Bellomy
43.7
6.4
2.9
1.2
7.3%
16.2%
.302
89
4.72
112
0.0
John O’Reilly
64.0
4.6
3.2
1.1
8.0%
11.5%
.300
84
5.11
120
-0.1
Brad Case
54.0
5.8
4.3
1.2
10.5%
14.2%
.301
77
5.37
130
-0.2
Daniel Zamora
38.7
8.1
5.1
1.2
12.5%
19.9%
.310
83
5.07
121
-0.2
Ben Heller
37.0
8.8
3.4
1.2
8.6%
22.2%
.301
83
4.93
121
-0.2
Tahnaj Thomas
44.3
5.7
5.3
1.2
12.6%
13.5%
.294
77
5.78
129
-0.2
Cameron Junker
48.3
7.3
5.0
1.1
12.2%
17.6%
.297
81
5.18
123
-0.3
Juan Minaya
43.0
7.3
4.8
1.3
11.6%
17.7%
.295
81
5.46
124
-0.3
Braeden Ogle
37.0
7.3
6.8
1.2
15.8%
16.9%
.291
73
5.90
138
-0.4
Grant Ford
49.0
7.2
5.9
1.3
13.8%
16.8%
.297
74
5.79
135
-0.4
Matt Eckelman
40.7
4.4
5.3
1.3
12.2%
10.2%
.303
71
6.11
141
-0.4
Oliver Garcia
43.0
6.9
5.7
1.3
13.3%
16.3%
.295
75
5.77
134
-0.5
Michell Miliano
49.3
8.0
7.8
1.3
17.5%
17.9%
.296
70
6.17
142
-0.8
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Mitch Keller
.262
.332
.403
.238
.300
.393
3.6
1.4
3.59
4.71
Johan Oviedo
.241
.336
.381
.234
.307
.397
3.0
0.9
3.72
4.88
Bailey Falter
.257
.297
.412
.262
.316
.428
2.0
0.6
3.93
5.02
Jared Jones
.239
.329
.359
.253
.323
.427
2.2
0.5
3.92
5.17
David Bednar
.211
.281
.339
.222
.277
.373
2.1
0.6
2.40
4.12
Luis Ortiz
.287
.359
.480
.233
.309
.378
2.1
0.5
4.10
5.13
Quinn Priester
.253
.331
.416
.252
.327
.392
2.0
0.3
4.23
5.36
Roansy Contreras
.253
.318
.420
.232
.296
.374
1.9
0.5
3.75
5.08
Paul Skenes
.253
.322
.410
.242
.293
.392
1.8
0.5
4.13
5.15
Anthony Solometo
.258
.331
.419
.258
.333
.412
1.7
0.4
4.12
5.25
Jackson Wolf
.246
.308
.331
.260
.325
.453
1.6
0.3
4.17
5.26
Sean Sullivan
.251
.324
.403
.278
.339
.444
1.6
0.4
4.16
5.19
Marco Gonzales
.275
.318
.431
.266
.323
.451
1.5
0.3
4.23
5.30
Kent Emanuel
.232
.280
.384
.289
.332
.459
1.4
0.4
3.88
4.95
Braxton Ashcraft
.254
.308
.418
.264
.314
.411
1.2
0.4
3.71
5.00
JT Brubaker
.257
.332
.455
.249
.315
.407
1.5
0.2
4.01
5.31
Carmen Mlodzinski
.250
.327
.412
.250
.323
.375
1.3
0.3
3.79
4.92
Michael Burrows
.245
.314
.434
.258
.330
.399
1.2
0.3
4.13
5.16
Kyle Nicolas
.246
.360
.392
.249
.330
.423
1.2
0.0
4.26
5.43
Cam Alldred
.222
.309
.361
.276
.351
.448
1.2
0.0
4.19
5.39
Andre Jackson
.235
.328
.395
.253
.339
.416
1.2
0.0
4.06
5.45
Beau Sulser
.296
.358
.475
.270
.317
.431
1.0
0.1
4.36
5.35
Max Kranick
.278
.353
.451
.262
.316
.421
1.0
0.2
4.34
5.33
Thomas Hatch
.262
.335
.456
.250
.328
.381
1.2
0.0
4.12
5.37
Aaron Shortridge
.279
.350
.429
.280
.338
.477
1.2
-0.1
4.68
5.60
Dauri Moreta
.229
.309
.431
.213
.299
.323
1.1
-0.1
3.25
4.80
Vince Velasquez
.257
.333
.431
.234
.309
.387
1.0
0.1
3.85
5.22
Nick Dombkowski
.253
.314
.421
.278
.330
.449
1.0
0.0
4.07
5.17
Ryan Borucki
.191
.269
.277
.242
.309
.414
0.9
0.1
2.96
4.62
Roddery Muñoz
.277
.375
.460
.241
.322
.395
0.9
-0.1
4.36
5.47
Justin Meis
.257
.361
.403
.266
.337
.435
0.9
-0.1
4.55
5.52
Wil Crowe
.244
.336
.409
.268
.345
.446
0.9
-0.2
4.28
5.58
Rob Zastryzny
.241
.323
.362
.270
.331
.452
0.7
-0.1
3.68
5.44
Jose Hernandez
.212
.297
.303
.244
.333
.443
0.7
-0.1
3.42
4.93
Caleb Smith
.256
.322
.372
.241
.335
.449
0.7
-0.4
4.34
5.93
Conner Loeprich
.260
.333
.396
.272
.328
.456
0.6
-0.1
4.02
5.22
Hunter Stratton
.255
.358
.422
.228
.322
.386
0.7
-0.4
3.86
5.35
J.C. Flowers
.267
.353
.416
.271
.351
.441
0.4
-0.3
4.60
5.79
Colin Holderman
.253
.340
.418
.243
.313
.388
0.4
-0.5
3.95
5.53
Noe Toribio
.261
.362
.450
.242
.331
.356
0.4
-0.4
4.42
5.64
Chase De Jong
.271
.363
.458
.252
.328
.441
0.4
-0.4
4.58
6.08
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith
.265
.344
.398
.250
.318
.438
0.4
-0.4
3.94
5.33
Colin Selby
.267
.382
.430
.218
.322
.366
0.4
-0.4
4.18
5.60
Tyler Samaniego
.241
.339
.333
.250
.341
.425
0.3
-0.4
4.25
5.66
Duane Underwood Jr.
.280
.352
.473
.252
.323
.396
0.4
-0.5
4.24
5.96
Will Kobos
.245
.365
.434
.236
.338
.400
0.2
-0.3
4.15
5.76
Bear Bellomy
.268
.341
.402
.277
.324
.479
0.2
-0.4
4.15
5.41
John O’Reilly
.288
.365
.477
.280
.335
.427
0.2
-0.5
4.62
5.63
Brad Case
.281
.386
.448
.270
.343
.434
0.2
-0.6
5.03
6.31
Daniel Zamora
.241
.339
.426
.273
.376
.424
0.1
-0.7
4.41
6.26
Ben Heller
.250
.346
.412
.250
.356
.421
0.1
-0.6
4.23
6.32
Tahnaj Thomas
.284
.396
.481
.260
.357
.406
0.0
-0.6
4.97
6.12
Cameron Junker
.225
.346
.360
.287
.371
.465
0.1
-0.7
4.70
6.05
Juan Minaya
.253
.364
.427
.263
.366
.432
0.0
-0.7
4.58
6.14
Braeden Ogle
.245
.373
.408
.260
.390
.438
-0.1
-0.7
5.11
6.74
Grant Ford
.253
.384
.429
.272
.372
.447
-0.1
-0.8
5.16
6.47
Matt Eckelman
.295
.402
.500
.289
.369
.444
-0.2
-0.8
5.44
6.94
Oliver Garcia
.263
.385
.450
.264
.370
.418
-0.2
-0.9
5.06
6.48
Michell Miliano
.275
.426
.462
.235
.373
.392
-0.4
-1.2
5.38
7.03
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.