For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Philadelphia Phillies.
Batters
Unless something significant happens in the next few weeks, the Phillies’ 2024 offense will look a lot like the late-2023 version. In many ways, that’s a good thing: The team ranked sixth in runs scored and seventh in wRC+ in the second half. Problem is, everyone will be a year older and some of the club’s fundamental issues still remain. Most of their best offensive talent is on the wrong side of 30, the outfield’s kind of iffy overall, and you can’t DH both Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Bryce Harper playing first “fixes” the loss of Rhys Hoskins, but you have to have a lot of faith in Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas. Marsh is probably the more likely of the two to maintain offensive relevance, but Rojas is good enough defensively that the floor on his performance is probably pretty high.
I’ve already seen some grumbling about Bryson Stott’s projection, but given the volatility of defensive stats — even the newest-fangled of them — ZiPS isn’t going all-in there until he does it another time or two. Alec Bohm is competently boring.
Issues like the team’s depth and lack of reinforcements on the farm remain. That’s not to say the farm is empty, it’s just that the most fascinating prospects are pitchers and the more compelling offensive prospects are probably a few years off. The Phillies will try to keep their boat afloat until then, but in 2024, the team could be susceptible to a lot of bad news hitting at once.
Pitchers
As long as their pitchers are healthy, the Phillies have one of the best starting rotations in baseball. If you think their lofty ranking in our depth charts is due to some idiosyncrasy of Steamer, ZiPS likes them about just as much when using our depth chart playing time, ranking them fourth among the projected teams so far (Braves, Mariners, Dodgers). Now, I’m personally not quite as bullish about this group, and by the time we have the Real Official ZiPS projections, I’m naturally going to be a little more skeptical about playing time for Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, simply by virtue of them being pitchers.
Wheeler-Nola is a fine one-two punch, and the emergence of Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez has given the Phillies a lot more runway to survive if calamity strikes. Taijuan Walker’s semi-cromulent performance looks a lot better when he’s only being counted on to be the fifth-best pitcher in the rotation. Sure, Wheeler is unsigned past 2024, but that’s a problem for Future Dave Dombrowski (or Sam Fuld) to worry about. ZiPS remains lukewarm on Mick Abel and Griff McGarry, however, and the team isn’t overflowing elsewhere with those random fourth starters the A’s used to be able to find before they lost their feel for it.
There’s a real polarization among relievers in the ZiPS projections. The computer really likes José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering, and is at least a friendly acquaintance with Jeff Hoffman and Seranthony Domínguez. But the relievers it’s not keen on, like Dylan Covey and Andrew Bellatti, it hates with the kind of burning passion that should worry people who fear AI uprisings. It’s also surprisingly suspicious of Gregory Soto’s improved walk rates for reasons I haven’t completely deciphered.
So, where do the Phillies stand? They still need an awful lot to go right for them and wrong for Atlanta to be serious contenders for the division. But they’re a top-tier Wild Card team and if the rotation stays healthy, they can power themselves pretty far in October once again. Of course, there’s some risk in keeping the band together for another album without anything new; you eventually produce Creedence Clearwater Revival’s Mardi Gras, or a couple of Weezer albums that I’ve only forgotten the names of after years of focused hatred. This is a good team, but with just the right mix of plausible, unfortunate outcomes, it could be susceptible to one of those depressing implosions like the Mets or Cardinals last year.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Trea Turner
R
31
SS
655
601
98
174
34
4
24
85
45
128
27
2
Bryce Harper
L
31
1B
539
452
83
127
31
1
26
79
78
115
11
3
J.T. Realmuto
R
33
C
525
473
67
120
25
3
19
70
38
127
13
3
Bryson Stott
L
26
2B
581
529
69
136
26
2
12
65
43
107
21
3
Brandon Marsh
L
26
CF
478
424
55
105
22
5
10
57
47
143
11
2
Kyle Schwarber
L
31
LF
641
536
93
117
22
1
38
96
97
188
2
1
Alec Bohm
R
27
3B
597
542
71
147
28
1
15
77
43
101
3
2
Jake Cave
L
31
LF
445
401
57
97
23
5
14
61
35
122
4
2
Edmundo Sosa
R
28
3B
319
292
39
72
12
3
8
36
11
73
5
2
Drew Ellis
R
28
3B
414
359
49
76
22
1
14
54
46
115
2
1
Kody Clemens
L
28
1B
420
382
55
88
16
4
17
62
33
109
4
2
Weston Wilson
R
29
SS
487
436
61
96
18
2
19
63
45
150
16
4
Esteban Quiroz
L
32
2B
334
290
41
66
17
0
6
35
37
71
3
1
Johan Rojas
R
23
CF
530
490
66
118
22
6
6
53
24
116
28
6
Cristian Pache
R
25
CF
290
259
31
59
11
2
5
29
28
83
6
4
Darick Hall
L
28
1B
460
414
47
97
22
1
19
65
37
117
1
1
Rafael Marchán
B
25
C
274
247
28
60
13
1
2
26
20
37
1
1
Cal Stevenson
L
27
CF
359
303
45
68
11
1
6
34
47
86
11
4
Otto Kemp
R
24
3B
454
401
54
83
14
4
5
42
36
136
9
4
Símon Muzziotti
L
25
LF
468
432
47
108
16
4
5
44
31
86
14
8
Nick Podkul
R
27
1B
243
212
28
46
8
2
7
28
24
64
1
1
Nick Castellanos
R
32
RF
595
550
72
142
32
1
23
85
36
151
7
1
Garrett Stubbs
L
31
C
149
131
19
31
6
1
2
15
15
34
3
1
Nick Ward
L
28
3B
457
400
57
88
11
1
6
44
40
116
12
2
Vimael Machín
L
30
3B
390
347
38
82
15
2
5
38
36
72
1
1
Robbie Glendinning
R
28
3B
368
326
34
69
14
1
10
45
37
140
2
1
Scott Kingery
R
30
SS
406
360
45
73
15
3
8
39
34
139
12
1
Jordan Qsar
L
28
RF
357
314
40
62
12
4
11
45
38
142
7
2
Kendall Simmons
R
24
2B
293
263
31
56
13
3
8
35
19
90
3
2
Matt Kroon
R
27
3B
401
363
42
87
18
4
6
44
28
98
12
6
Aramis Garcia
R
31
C
234
220
22
47
9
0
8
28
8
75
1
1
Vito Friscia
R
27
C
300
262
24
55
11
1
6
31
32
96
1
1
John Hicks
R
34
C
272
252
29
55
14
0
8
35
15
89
6
1
Caleb Ricketts
L
24
C
290
272
32
66
8
2
4
27
14
65
3
2
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
L
23
RF
545
494
66
106
28
2
12
62
40
165
15
4
Cam Cannon
R
26
2B
296
279
29
63
16
0
5
29
14
58
2
1
Robert Moore
B
22
2B
543
492
56
107
28
2
7
52
36
135
13
8
Rodolfo Castro
B
25
2B
444
402
46
87
16
2
15
61
33
133
3
4
Dustin Peterson
R
29
RF
371
339
42
78
15
1
12
45
27
96
1
1
Cody Roberts
R
28
C
255
233
25
50
12
0
4
27
16
75
1
1
Jim Haley
R
29
1B
401
367
48
79
15
3
10
47
24
121
11
2
Herbert Iser
L
26
C
198
183
14
36
7
1
3
17
11
63
0
1
William Simoneit
R
27
1B
322
289
33
61
13
1
6
39
25
100
2
1
Pedro Martinez
B
23
SS
275
253
25
50
8
1
3
24
18
93
7
4
Marcus Lee Sang
L
23
CF
504
457
55
95
19
4
9
50
40
180
11
7
Trevor Schwecke
R
26
RF
360
326
39
72
15
2
6
39
27
102
5
3
Garrett Whitley
R
27
RF
323
285
37
53
14
2
7
34
32
126
7
3
Jared Carr
L
25
CF
390
351
38
71
12
2
3
31
30
123
11
4
Wendell Rijo
R
28
DH
340
309
36
66
16
0
7
36
24
97
5
3
Carson Taylor
L
25
C
310
281
33
64
9
1
6
28
25
81
0
1
Bryce Ball
L
25
1B
453
407
41
82
21
1
9
45
43
143
0
1
Casey Martin
R
25
SS
439
407
37
75
18
1
6
37
24
151
9
3
McCarthy Tatum
R
28
LF
280
256
22
51
12
1
4
29
14
89
3
2
Leandro Pineda
L
22
RF
433
390
44
82
20
4
6
41
32
125
3
2
Jhailyn Ortiz
R
25
1B
431
392
41
78
14
1
11
48
31
161
2
1
Madison Stokes
R
28
SS
393
352
34
68
17
2
5
33
33
135
3
1
Carlos De La Cruz
R
24
1B
514
469
51
99
20
1
13
61
32
178
2
1
Baron Radcliff
L
25
RF
336
301
27
52
9
0
10
33
33
152
2
1
Rixon Wingrove
L
24
1B
433
397
34
78
16
2
11
48
28
159
2
1
Ethan Wilson
L
24
LF
472
444
40
97
20
3
9
47
22
129
8
5
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Trea Turner
655
.290
.342
.479
124
.190
.334
1
4.8
.351
105
Bryce Harper
539
.281
.388
.527
150
.246
.325
0
3.6
.384
96
J.T. Realmuto
525
.254
.320
.440
107
.186
.309
2
2.8
.326
70
Bryson Stott
581
.257
.314
.382
91
.125
.302
7
2.0
.303
69
Brandon Marsh
478
.248
.325
.394
98
.146
.351
2
1.6
.314
57
Kyle Schwarber
641
.218
.343
.476
123
.257
.255
-12
1.5
.351
88
Alec Bohm
597
.271
.327
.410
102
.138
.310
-4
1.4
.319
74
Jake Cave
445
.242
.311
.429
102
.187
.313
6
1.3
.319
55
Edmundo Sosa
319
.247
.300
.390
89
.144
.303
7
1.1
.301
36
Drew Ellis
414
.212
.309
.396
93
.184
.270
1
1.0
.309
45
Kody Clemens
420
.230
.293
.427
96
.196
.277
9
1.0
.309
49
Weston Wilson
487
.220
.295
.401
90
.181
.288
-5
0.8
.302
56
Esteban Quiroz
334
.228
.323
.348
86
.121
.282
2
0.8
.301
34
Johan Rojas
530
.241
.285
.347
74
.106
.304
7
0.8
.277
57
Cristian Pache
290
.228
.306
.344
79
.116
.316
6
0.7
.289
30
Darick Hall
460
.234
.304
.430
100
.196
.281
3
0.6
.316
55
Rafael Marchán
274
.243
.310
.328
77
.085
.279
2
0.6
.285
26
Cal Stevenson
359
.224
.327
.327
82
.102
.294
1
0.6
.295
36
Otto Kemp
454
.207
.289
.299
63
.092
.300
12
0.6
.264
38
Símon Muzziotti
468
.250
.300
.340
77
.090
.302
12
0.4
.282
50
Nick Podkul
243
.217
.313
.373
89
.156
.277
4
0.4
.304
25
Nick Castellanos
595
.258
.306
.445
104
.187
.316
-8
0.3
.321
77
Garrett Stubbs
149
.237
.318
.344
83
.107
.305
-1
0.2
.295
15
Nick Ward
457
.220
.306
.298
68
.078
.295
3
0.1
.274
40
Vimael Machín
390
.236
.311
.334
79
.098
.285
0
0.1
.286
37
Robbie Glendinning
368
.212
.299
.353
80
.141
.335
-1
0.1
.289
35
Scott Kingery
406
.203
.275
.328
66
.125
.305
0
0.0
.267
35
Jordan Qsar
357
.197
.291
.366
80
.169
.317
3
0.0
.289
36
Kendall Simmons
293
.213
.284
.376
81
.163
.291
-2
-0.1
.288
30
Matt Kroon
401
.240
.300
.361
82
.121
.313
-3
-0.1
.290
44
Aramis Garcia
234
.214
.253
.364
68
.150
.285
-1
-0.1
.267
21
Vito Friscia
300
.210
.300
.328
74
.118
.306
-5
-0.1
.281
26
John Hicks
272
.218
.266
.369
73
.151
.303
-4
-0.2
.275
26
Caleb Ricketts
290
.243
.286
.331
70
.088
.305
-2
-0.2
.271
27
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
545
.215
.286
.352
75
.138
.297
5
-0.2
.282
54
Cam Cannon
296
.226
.270
.337
67
.111
.269
1
-0.3
.267
26
Robert Moore
543
.217
.281
.325
67
.108
.286
3
-0.3
.268
51
Rodolfo Castro
444
.216
.284
.378
81
.162
.283
-5
-0.3
.288
45
Dustin Peterson
371
.230
.291
.386
85
.156
.286
-1
-0.3
.295
39
Cody Roberts
255
.215
.272
.318
62
.103
.299
-3
-0.4
.261
21
Jim Haley
401
.215
.273
.354
72
.139
.292
4
-0.5
.274
39
Herbert Iser
198
.197
.247
.295
49
.098
.282
-1
-0.6
.240
14
William Simoneit
322
.211
.289
.325
70
.114
.301
2
-0.6
.275
28
Pedro Martinez
275
.198
.262
.273
48
.075
.299
0
-0.7
.242
21
Marcus Lee Sang
504
.208
.278
.326
66
.118
.321
-3
-0.9
.268
47
Trevor Schwecke
360
.221
.289
.334
72
.113
.303
-2
-0.9
.275
34
Garrett Whitley
323
.186
.279
.323
66
.137
.303
-1
-0.9
.269
28
Jared Carr
390
.202
.275
.274
53
.071
.302
0
-0.9
.249
30
Wendell Rijo
340
.214
.280
.333
69
.120
.288
0
-0.9
.272
31
Carson Taylor
310
.228
.294
.331
73
.103
.299
-13
-1.1
.278
28
Bryce Ball
453
.201
.278
.324
66
.123
.286
3
-1.2
.267
37
Casey Martin
439
.184
.237
.278
42
.093
.276
3
-1.2
.229
30
McCarthy Tatum
280
.199
.261
.301
55
.102
.288
-1
-1.2
.250
22
Leandro Pineda
433
.210
.279
.328
67
.118
.293
-1
-1.2
.268
37
Jhailyn Ortiz
431
.199
.269
.324
63
.125
.305
0
-1.4
.264
35
Madison Stokes
393
.193
.269
.295
56
.102
.297
-9
-1.5
.254
29
Carlos De La Cruz
514
.211
.274
.341
69
.130
.309
-1
-1.5
.271
45
Baron Radcliff
336
.173
.256
.302
54
.130
.302
-2
-1.5
.250
24
Rixon Wingrove
433
.196
.261
.330
62
.134
.295
-1
-1.7
.261
35
Ethan Wilson
472
.218
.261
.338
64
.119
.288
-3
-1.9
.261
43
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Trea Turner
.313
.367
.536
144
6.3
.265
.317
.434
106
3.3
Bryce Harper
.302
.410
.587
170
4.8
.253
.358
.476
129
2.1
J.T. Realmuto
.278
.345
.485
125
3.9
.228
.293
.393
87
1.5
Bryson Stott
.281
.342
.418
108
3.3
.232
.288
.340
75
0.8
Brandon Marsh
.275
.352
.445
117
2.7
.213
.294
.341
76
0.3
Kyle Schwarber
.244
.371
.535
143
3.0
.193
.317
.401
100
-0.1
Alec Bohm
.300
.354
.459
123
2.8
.245
.299
.368
84
0.0
Jake Cave
.269
.338
.484
122
2.4
.209
.282
.372
80
0.1
Edmundo Sosa
.272
.325
.434
106
1.8
.221
.275
.338
72
0.5
Drew Ellis
.237
.332
.444
111
1.9
.191
.282
.341
74
0.0
Kody Clemens
.259
.320
.489
118
2.2
.208
.270
.375
76
0.1
Weston Wilson
.243
.319
.460
110
2.0
.193
.270
.348
70
-0.5
Esteban Quiroz
.252
.350
.392
103
1.5
.198
.296
.298
67
0.0
Johan Rojas
.264
.308
.387
89
1.8
.218
.262
.312
59
-0.3
Cristian Pache
.254
.331
.389
98
1.3
.194
.276
.298
62
0.0
Darick Hall
.258
.325
.485
120
1.7
.210
.279
.374
82
-0.4
Rafael Marchán
.276
.343
.374
96
1.2
.210
.277
.288
59
-0.1
Cal Stevenson
.253
.354
.374
100
1.4
.197
.300
.286
63
-0.2
Otto Kemp
.231
.312
.338
79
1.4
.181
.265
.259
46
-0.4
Símon Muzziotti
.278
.326
.384
95
1.5
.227
.276
.307
62
-0.5
Nick Podkul
.241
.338
.432
113
1.1
.188
.282
.329
72
-0.2
Nick Castellanos
.281
.329
.485
122
1.5
.232
.278
.391
84
-1.2
Garrett Stubbs
.269
.351
.393
105
0.6
.208
.288
.299
66
-0.1
Nick Ward
.247
.332
.339
85
1.2
.194
.278
.260
51
-0.8
Vimael Machín
.264
.337
.380
97
0.9
.208
.280
.292
60
-0.8
Robbie Glendinning
.239
.325
.411
100
1.0
.185
.273
.310
60
-0.8
Scott Kingery
.230
.307
.388
89
1.1
.178
.249
.289
49
-0.9
Jordan Qsar
.225
.321
.421
102
0.9
.171
.268
.309
59
-0.9
Kendall Simmons
.243
.310
.435
103
0.7
.186
.258
.321
61
-0.8
Matt Kroon
.267
.327
.405
100
0.8
.214
.274
.317
65
-1.0
Aramis Garcia
.243
.282
.426
87
0.5
.187
.225
.306
47
-0.7
Vito Friscia
.239
.330
.378
93
0.5
.182
.270
.280
54
-0.8
John Hicks
.245
.293
.425
94
0.5
.189
.240
.316
54
-0.8
Caleb Ricketts
.272
.314
.379
90
0.5
.212
.260
.294
55
-0.8
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
.237
.311
.398
94
1.1
.187
.260
.313
58
-1.3
Cam Cannon
.258
.301
.392
91
0.6
.199
.242
.294
47
-1.0
Robert Moore
.250
.312
.384
92
1.1
.192
.255
.286
51
-1.4
Rodolfo Castro
.245
.310
.435
103
0.8
.190
.258
.330
60
-1.5
Dustin Peterson
.260
.325
.441
106
0.6
.204
.264
.336
66
-1.3
Cody Roberts
.243
.307
.366
82
0.2
.183
.242
.271
43
-1.1
Jim Haley
.244
.300
.405
93
0.5
.191
.248
.314
55
-1.4
Herbert Iser
.228
.282
.343
70
0.0
.163
.218
.245
28
-1.1
William Simoneit
.239
.314
.369
87
0.0
.186
.259
.283
50
-1.4
Pedro Martinez
.226
.290
.310
66
0.0
.171
.237
.227
30
-1.3
Marcus Lee Sang
.231
.301
.368
82
0.1
.183
.255
.287
50
-1.9
Trevor Schwecke
.242
.311
.378
88
-0.2
.197
.264
.297
57
-1.6
Garrett Whitley
.212
.307
.373
86
-0.2
.160
.252
.273
48
-1.7
Jared Carr
.232
.301
.308
69
-0.1
.176
.250
.233
37
-1.7
Wendell Rijo
.243
.310
.382
89
-0.1
.186
.253
.287
50
-1.8
Carson Taylor
.259
.325
.381
94
-0.3
.196
.265
.286
53
-1.8
Bryce Ball
.230
.306
.369
84
-0.2
.176
.248
.284
48
-2.3
Casey Martin
.204
.256
.317
56
-0.4
.157
.213
.235
25
-2.2
McCarthy Tatum
.230
.290
.342
73
-0.6
.176
.240
.260
38
-1.8
Leandro Pineda
.235
.304
.372
85
-0.3
.183
.251
.283
49
-2.3
Jhailyn Ortiz
.224
.293
.368
82
-0.5
.175
.243
.281
44
-2.4
Madison Stokes
.222
.299
.347
78
-0.5
.162
.239
.254
37
-2.3
Carlos De La Cruz
.234
.299
.384
88
-0.3
.187
.249
.295
51
-2.6
Baron Radcliff
.198
.283
.353
74
-0.6
.147
.227
.255
36
-2.2
Rixon Wingrove
.226
.290
.377
82
-0.7
.172
.237
.281
43
-2.8
Ethan Wilson
.247
.286
.386
83
-0.8
.194
.238
.294
47
-2.9
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Trea Turner
.292
.349
.483
.288
.339
.478
Bryce Harper
.272
.371
.493
.285
.395
.541
J.T. Realmuto
.248
.320
.431
.256
.320
.443
Bryson Stott
.250
.309
.363
.260
.316
.390
Brandon Marsh
.233
.308
.345
.253
.331
.412
Kyle Schwarber
.205
.328
.425
.223
.349
.495
Alec Bohm
.286
.344
.455
.263
.317
.385
Jake Cave
.233
.297
.422
.246
.316
.432
Edmundo Sosa
.243
.296
.400
.249
.302
.384
Drew Ellis
.213
.323
.396
.210
.297
.395
Kody Clemens
.227
.286
.414
.232
.296
.433
Weston Wilson
.227
.311
.402
.215
.282
.401
Esteban Quiroz
.220
.314
.341
.231
.328
.352
Johan Rojas
.240
.285
.345
.241
.285
.348
Cristian Pache
.248
.333
.393
.211
.282
.303
Darick Hall
.221
.292
.393
.242
.311
.450
Rafael Marchán
.238
.304
.317
.247
.315
.336
Cal Stevenson
.218
.316
.307
.228
.332
.337
Otto Kemp
.213
.298
.313
.203
.283
.291
Símon Muzziotti
.238
.287
.333
.255
.306
.343
Nick Podkul
.226
.327
.387
.210
.301
.361
Nick Castellanos
.273
.323
.468
.253
.299
.437
Garrett Stubbs
.237
.310
.368
.237
.321
.333
Nick Ward
.204
.295
.255
.225
.310
.311
Vimael Machín
.231
.306
.315
.238
.313
.343
Robbie Glendinning
.217
.309
.357
.208
.291
.350
Scott Kingery
.207
.289
.326
.200
.266
.329
Jordan Qsar
.185
.279
.347
.205
.300
.379
Kendall Simmons
.213
.283
.380
.213
.285
.374
Matt Kroon
.239
.303
.362
.240
.298
.360
Aramis Garcia
.230
.272
.379
.203
.241
.353
Vito Friscia
.209
.308
.324
.211
.289
.333
John Hicks
.220
.275
.370
.217
.259
.368
Caleb Ricketts
.230
.278
.324
.247
.289
.333
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
.203
.277
.336
.219
.290
.358
Cam Cannon
.234
.280
.339
.219
.262
.335
Robert Moore
.220
.290
.327
.216
.277
.324
Rodolfo Castro
.225
.294
.402
.210
.276
.361
Dustin Peterson
.236
.303
.410
.225
.280
.365
Cody Roberts
.214
.278
.327
.215
.267
.311
Jim Haley
.220
.284
.373
.211
.263
.337
Herbert Iser
.197
.242
.279
.197
.250
.303
William Simoneit
.213
.296
.346
.210
.283
.309
Pedro Martinez
.198
.267
.260
.197
.259
.280
Marcus Lee Sang
.194
.261
.295
.213
.285
.338
Trevor Schwecke
.224
.295
.328
.219
.284
.339
Garrett Whitley
.194
.297
.338
.176
.254
.304
Jared Carr
.190
.261
.270
.207
.281
.275
Wendell Rijo
.220
.295
.333
.208
.268
.333
Carson Taylor
.215
.282
.312
.234
.300
.340
Bryce Ball
.195
.271
.296
.206
.283
.343
Casey Martin
.183
.242
.262
.185
.235
.288
McCarthy Tatum
.204
.260
.327
.196
.261
.280
Leandro Pineda
.200
.270
.291
.214
.283
.343
Jhailyn Ortiz
.203
.279
.349
.195
.261
.305
Madison Stokes
.194
.275
.299
.192
.265
.293
Carlos De La Cruz
.211
.278
.339
.211
.272
.343
Baron Radcliff
.170
.250
.287
.174
.259
.309
Rixon Wingrove
.182
.250
.318
.202
.265
.334
Ethan Wilson
.206
.250
.305
.224
.265
.351
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Zack Wheeler
R
34
11
7
3.61
29
29
172.0
155
69
16
48
172
Aaron Nola
R
31
12
8
3.84
30
30
180.3
164
77
22
36
195
Ranger Suárez
L
28
7
6
4.02
28
24
134.3
132
60
15
48
114
Cristopher Sánchez
L
27
6
7
4.36
28
25
142.3
139
69
20
42
124
Taijuan Walker
R
31
8
10
4.67
27
27
148.3
149
77
20
54
116
Andrew Painter
R
21
5
5
4.46
28
28
113.0
108
56
16
40
109
Matt Strahm
L
32
7
5
3.93
51
8
75.7
65
33
11
21
84
Michael Lorenzen
R
32
7
8
4.70
26
22
122.7
119
64
18
42
101
Michael Plassmeyer
L
27
5
6
4.87
21
18
92.3
96
50
14
30
82
Matt Osterberg
L
25
6
7
5.03
22
20
96.7
109
54
15
26
61
José Alvarado
L
29
3
2
3.58
54
0
50.3
41
20
6
21
68
Orion Kerkering
R
23
4
2
3.90
56
0
57.7
53
25
8
15
63
Mick Abel
R
22
5
8
5.28
23
23
105.7
104
62
16
58
97
David Parkinson
L
28
5
7
5.32
21
18
106.7
117
63
17
42
83
Noah Skirrow
R
25
5
6
5.21
22
15
95.0
103
55
14
41
69
Seranthony Domínguez
R
29
6
5
4.15
57
0
52.0
45
24
7
25
59
Jeff Hoffman
R
31
4
4
4.13
59
0
56.7
46
26
8
24
65
Tyler Phillips
R
26
4
6
5.40
23
22
105.0
117
63
17
42
73
Shaun Anderson 앤더슨
R
29
5
7
5.36
25
20
100.7
114
60
17
37
75
Nick Nelson
R
28
4
5
5.30
27
18
90.0
96
53
12
40
72
Connor Brogdon
R
29
3
2
4.42
52
2
55.0
51
27
8
23
59
Kyle Hart
L
31
4
6
5.40
19
15
80.0
87
48
12
33
61
Michael Mercado
R
25
3
5
5.14
38
10
70.0
69
40
11
32
71
Gregory Soto
L
29
4
4
4.53
62
1
57.7
50
29
9
27
73
Luis F. Ortiz
R
28
3
2
4.75
40
3
60.7
63
32
8
18
50
Max Lazar
R
25
3
3
4.90
28
4
60.7
66
33
10
18
49
Jack Perkins
R
26
3
4
5.35
21
11
65.7
72
39
10
27
48
Hans Crouse
R
25
4
4
5.22
21
13
58.7
57
34
9
34
56
Josh Fleming
L
28
4
5
5.29
25
9
83.3
100
49
12
23
49
Griff McGarry
R
25
3
4
5.45
21
19
67.7
61
41
10
52
77
Josh Hendrickson
L
26
4
5
5.65
20
17
92.3
102
58
15
39
63
José Ruiz
R
29
1
2
4.86
52
3
63.0
62
34
10
29
67
Zach Haake
R
27
3
4
5.65
16
12
57.3
62
36
9
26
42
Jordi Martinez
L
23
2
3
5.19
38
5
60.7
66
35
9
27
46
T.J. Zeuch
R
28
3
5
5.66
16
14
68.3
81
43
11
28
42
Yunior Marte
R
29
2
3
4.76
53
0
56.7
55
30
8
24
58
Victor Vargas
R
23
2
5
5.76
15
14
59.3
70
38
9
20
25
Drew Hutchison
R
33
4
7
5.76
22
19
89.0
100
57
15
51
66
Braden Zarbnisky
R
27
3
5
4.89
38
0
49.7
50
27
8
19
45
Tristan Garnett
L
26
3
4
4.83
39
0
41.0
43
22
6
16
35
Jake Jewell
R
31
1
2
5.50
32
3
37.7
39
23
6
18
36
Jeremy Walker
R
29
3
4
5.22
43
2
60.3
66
35
9
22
43
Dylan Covey
R
32
2
2
5.44
28
1
41.3
47
25
6
16
26
Dominic Pipkin
R
24
3
5
5.88
24
8
49.0
52
32
8
30
40
Andrew Bellatti
R
32
1
2
5.20
50
0
45.0
43
26
8
22
55
Matt Seelinger
R
29
1
2
5.65
31
1
36.7
37
23
6
25
37
McKinley Moore
R
25
2
3
5.40
30
0
33.3
30
20
5
25
40
Brett Schulze
R
26
4
5
5.40
40
1
46.7
43
28
7
31
52
Taylor Lehman
L
28
2
4
5.67
41
1
39.7
41
25
6
23
34
Erich Uelmen
R
28
3
5
5.95
30
5
56.0
58
37
9
29
47
Tyler McKay
R
26
3
5
5.66
40
2
49.3
53
31
7
25
36
Hector Perez
R
28
2
3
5.80
34
4
54.3
54
35
8
39
55
Zach Linginfelter
R
27
2
3
6.57
21
6
38.3
41
28
7
29
32
Carlos A Francisco
R
24
3
4
5.66
44
0
49.3
49
31
8
29
45
Jace Vines
R
29
2
4
6.23
24
1
34.7
38
24
6
21
27
Jake Thompson톰슨
R
29
1
1
6.51
20
1
27.7
30
20
5
20
22
Louis Head
R
34
1
1
6.34
32
1
32.7
33
23
7
22
34
Tommy McCollum
R
25
0
1
6.00
44
0
39.0
35
26
6
32
44
Trey Cobb
R
30
2
4
6.28
30
1
38.7
41
27
6
24
32
Max Kuhns
R
29
1
2
6.75
27
0
26.7
28
20
5
22
24
Andrew Baker
R
24
2
3
6.35
38
0
39.7
36
28
6
37
44
Andrew Schultz
R
26
1
3
6.69
35
0
35.0
35
26
6
29
33
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Zack Wheeler
172.0
9.0
2.5
0.8
6.8%
24.2%
.295
121
3.42
83
3.7
Aaron Nola
180.3
9.7
1.8
1.1
4.9%
26.7%
.298
113
3.31
88
3.4
Ranger Suárez
134.3
7.6
3.2
1.0
8.3%
19.8%
.295
108
4.17
92
2.4
Cristopher Sánchez
142.3
7.8
2.7
1.3
7.0%
20.5%
.289
100
4.37
100
2.0
Taijuan Walker
148.3
7.0
3.3
1.2
8.5%
18.2%
.289
93
4.66
107
1.7
Andrew Painter
113.0
8.7
3.2
1.3
8.3%
22.5%
.293
98
4.36
102
1.5
Matt Strahm
75.7
10.0
2.5
1.3
6.8%
27.2%
.281
111
3.88
90
1.3
Michael Lorenzen
122.7
7.4
3.1
1.3
8.0%
19.2%
.281
93
4.62
108
1.3
Michael Plassmeyer
92.3
8.0
2.9
1.4
7.5%
20.6%
.304
89
4.65
112
0.9
Matt Osterberg
96.7
5.7
2.4
1.4
6.2%
14.5%
.298
87
4.91
116
0.8
José Alvarado
50.3
12.2
3.8
1.1
9.8%
31.8%
.304
122
3.41
82
0.8
Orion Kerkering
57.7
9.8
2.3
1.2
6.2%
26.1%
.298
112
3.76
90
0.6
Mick Abel
105.7
8.3
4.9
1.4
12.2%
20.5%
.292
82
5.26
121
0.6
David Parkinson
106.7
7.0
3.5
1.4
8.8%
17.5%
.304
82
5.06
122
0.6
Noah Skirrow
95.0
6.5
3.9
1.3
9.6%
16.2%
.299
84
5.14
120
0.5
Seranthony Domínguez
52.0
10.2
4.3
1.2
11.1%
26.1%
.288
105
4.24
95
0.5
Jeff Hoffman
56.7
10.3
3.8
1.3
10.0%
27.1%
.273
105
4.17
95
0.5
Tyler Phillips
105.0
6.3
3.6
1.5
8.9%
15.5%
.299
81
5.28
124
0.5
Shaun Anderson
100.7
6.7
3.3
1.5
8.2%
16.6%
.307
81
5.15
123
0.4
Nick Nelson
90.0
7.2
4.0
1.2
9.8%
17.6%
.305
82
4.92
122
0.4
Connor Brogdon
55.0
9.7
3.8
1.3
9.7%
24.8%
.297
99
4.36
102
0.4
Kyle Hart
80.0
6.9
3.7
1.4
9.3%
17.1%
.302
81
5.11
124
0.3
Michael Mercado
70.0
9.1
4.1
1.4
10.3%
22.9%
.302
85
4.77
118
0.3
Gregory Soto
57.7
11.4
4.2
1.4
10.7%
28.9%
.297
96
4.31
104
0.3
Luis F. Ortiz
60.7
7.4
2.7
1.2
6.9%
19.3%
.301
92
4.41
109
0.3
Max Lazar
60.7
7.3
2.7
1.5
6.8%
18.6%
.304
89
4.72
112
0.3
Jack Perkins
65.7
6.6
3.7
1.4
9.2%
16.4%
.301
81
5.23
123
0.3
Hans Crouse
58.7
8.6
5.2
1.4
12.7%
21.0%
.293
83
5.23
120
0.3
Josh Fleming
83.3
5.3
2.5
1.3
6.3%
13.4%
.312
82
4.85
122
0.3
Griff McGarry
67.7
10.2
6.9
1.3
16.3%
24.1%
.295
80
5.38
125
0.2
Josh Hendrickson
92.3
6.1
3.8
1.5
9.4%
15.2%
.296
77
5.53
130
0.2
José Ruiz
63.0
9.6
4.1
1.4
10.4%
23.9%
.306
90
4.67
112
0.1
Zach Haake
57.3
6.6
4.1
1.4
10.0%
16.2%
.296
77
5.35
130
0.1
Jordi Martinez
60.7
6.8
4.0
1.3
9.9%
16.8%
.303
84
5.05
119
0.1
T.J. Zeuch
68.3
5.5
3.7
1.4
9.0%
13.5%
.308
77
5.48
130
0.1
Yunior Marte
56.7
9.2
3.8
1.3
9.6%
23.3%
.303
91
4.47
109
0.1
Victor Vargas
59.3
3.8
3.0
1.4
7.6%
9.5%
.292
76
5.60
132
0.0
Drew Hutchison
89.0
6.7
5.2
1.5
12.3%
15.9%
.305
76
5.82
132
0.0
Braden Zarbnisky
49.7
8.2
3.4
1.4
8.7%
20.6%
.296
89
4.81
112
0.0
Tristan Garnett
41.0
7.7
3.5
1.3
8.7%
19.0%
.303
90
4.69
111
0.0
Jake Jewell
37.7
8.6
4.3
1.4
10.6%
21.2%
.308
79
5.09
126
-0.1
Jeremy Walker
60.3
6.4
3.3
1.3
8.3%
16.2%
.300
83
5.06
120
-0.1
Dylan Covey
41.3
5.7
3.5
1.3
8.7%
14.1%
.301
80
5.19
125
-0.1
Dominic Pipkin
49.0
7.3
5.5
1.5
13.1%
17.5%
.299
74
5.95
135
-0.1
Andrew Bellatti
45.0
11.0
4.4
1.6
11.1%
27.6%
.313
84
4.79
119
-0.2
Matt Seelinger
36.7
9.1
6.1
1.5
14.4%
21.3%
.304
77
5.41
130
-0.2
McKinley Moore
33.3
10.8
6.8
1.4
15.9%
25.5%
.301
81
5.24
124
-0.2
Brett Schulze
46.7
10.0
6.0
1.4
14.2%
23.9%
.298
81
5.23
124
-0.2
Taylor Lehman
39.7
7.7
5.2
1.4
12.4%
18.4%
.299
77
5.40
130
-0.2
Erich Uelmen
56.0
7.6
4.7
1.4
11.4%
18.4%
.295
73
5.70
137
-0.3
Tyler McKay
49.3
6.6
4.6
1.3
11.1%
16.0%
.299
77
5.53
130
-0.3
Hector Perez
54.3
9.1
6.5
1.3
15.1%
21.3%
.307
75
5.52
133
-0.3
Zach Linginfelter
38.3
7.5
6.8
1.6
15.5%
17.1%
.298
66
6.54
151
-0.4
Carlos A Francisco
49.3
8.2
5.3
1.5
12.9%
20.0%
.293
77
5.61
130
-0.4
Jace Vines
34.7
7.0
5.5
1.6
12.8%
16.5%
.302
70
6.02
143
-0.4
Jake Thompson
27.7
7.2
6.5
1.6
14.8%
16.3%
.298
67
6.62
149
-0.4
Louis Head
32.7
9.4
6.1
1.9
14.4%
22.2%
.295
69
6.26
146
-0.4
Tommy McCollum
39.0
10.2
7.4
1.4
17.1%
23.5%
.290
73
5.77
138
-0.5
Trey Cobb
38.7
7.4
5.6
1.4
13.3%
17.8%
.302
69
6.02
144
-0.5
Max Kuhns
26.7
8.1
7.4
1.7
16.7%
18.2%
.299
64
6.59
155
-0.6
Andrew Baker
39.7
10.0
8.4
1.4
18.8%
22.3%
.294
69
6.03
146
-0.6
Andrew Schultz
35.0
8.5
7.5
1.5
16.6%
18.9%
.293
65
6.51
154
-0.6
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Zack Wheeler
.240
.307
.388
.231
.278
.343
4.7
2.6
3.02
4.27
Aaron Nola
.235
.284
.379
.239
.274
.380
4.5
2.1
3.26
4.65
Ranger Suárez
.201
.258
.281
.269
.337
.440
3.2
1.5
3.51
4.63
Cristopher Sánchez
.231
.283
.341
.258
.320
.454
2.7
1.1
3.90
5.00
Taijuan Walker
.250
.328
.424
.261
.318
.420
2.4
0.6
4.23
5.41
Andrew Painter
.238
.305
.376
.253
.322
.447
2.2
0.6
3.86
5.34
Matt Strahm
.230
.292
.368
.225
.281
.405
2.2
0.5
3.06
4.99
Michael Lorenzen
.253
.328
.442
.245
.297
.402
1.9
0.4
4.25
5.43
Michael Plassmeyer
.229
.286
.367
.276
.345
.475
1.5
0.1
4.26
5.74
Matt Osterberg
.280
.328
.458
.278
.326
.465
1.3
0.2
4.53
5.67
José Alvarado
.206
.286
.286
.222
.303
.405
1.4
0.1
2.74
4.80
Orion Kerkering
.226
.284
.358
.250
.296
.440
1.2
0.0
3.01
4.99
Mick Abel
.243
.357
.429
.258
.347
.431
1.2
-0.3
4.76
6.01
David Parkinson
.258
.331
.402
.279
.345
.481
1.1
-0.3
4.85
6.12
Noah Skirrow
.278
.358
.460
.263
.332
.433
1.0
-0.1
4.77
5.82
Seranthony Domínguez
.250
.343
.457
.208
.292
.330
1.2
-0.2
3.20
5.38
Jeff Hoffman
.216
.304
.363
.218
.298
.400
1.1
-0.3
3.22
5.66
Tyler Phillips
.273
.360
.463
.279
.328
.470
1.1
-0.2
4.90
6.03
Shaun Anderson
.289
.353
.503
.270
.330
.445
1.1
-0.2
4.80
6.02
Nick Nelson
.277
.357
.451
.258
.340
.419
1.0
-0.2
4.70
6.01
Connor Brogdon
.252
.328
.398
.229
.309
.422
0.8
-0.3
3.66
5.69
Kyle Hart
.247
.304
.387
.281
.362
.478
0.8
-0.2
4.87
6.09
Michael Mercado
.242
.331
.424
.261
.338
.437
0.9
-0.2
4.46
5.90
Gregory Soto
.206
.296
.286
.236
.328
.452
1.1
-0.5
3.44
5.83
Luis F. Ortiz
.274
.341
.460
.250
.302
.391
0.7
-0.2
4.13
5.70
Max Lazar
.277
.336
.445
.266
.308
.476
0.8
-0.2
4.16
5.80
Jack Perkins
.281
.367
.488
.266
.333
.434
0.6
-0.1
4.87
5.98
Hans Crouse
.255
.376
.455
.244
.326
.403
0.7
-0.3
4.65
6.05
Josh Fleming
.283
.321
.444
.295
.343
.480
0.7
-0.4
4.80
6.05
Griff McGarry
.246
.379
.449
.225
.358
.373
0.8
-0.4
4.76
6.38
Josh Hendrickson
.283
.353
.481
.271
.353
.455
0.7
-0.4
5.17
6.38
José Ruiz
.243
.333
.430
.257
.331
.436
0.6
-0.5
4.12
5.84
Zach Haake
.275
.365
.459
.264
.333
.446
0.4
-0.3
5.12
6.33
Jordi Martinez
.271
.333
.443
.272
.349
.451
0.5
-0.4
4.68
5.97
T.J. Zeuch
.306
.377
.493
.274
.340
.473
0.5
-0.4
5.19
6.39
Yunior Marte
.248
.325
.386
.250
.331
.442
0.5
-0.5
4.07
5.71
Victor Vargas
.288
.355
.477
.288
.345
.477
0.3
-0.3
5.36
6.28
Drew Hutchison
.273
.371
.475
.282
.371
.469
0.5
-0.7
5.22
6.68
Braden Zarbnisky
.261
.327
.446
.252
.328
.437
0.4
-0.4
4.15
5.70
Tristan Garnett
.240
.321
.340
.274
.336
.487
0.3
-0.3
4.17
5.50
Jake Jewell
.277
.382
.508
.250
.326
.405
0.2
-0.5
4.74
6.62
Jeremy Walker
.280
.355
.467
.267
.329
.437
0.3
-0.5
4.61
5.92
Dylan Covey
.284
.363
.457
.276
.333
.460
0.1
-0.4
4.74
6.16
Dominic Pipkin
.281
.398
.506
.255
.360
.415
0.2
-0.5
5.30
6.65
Andrew Bellatti
.253
.359
.468
.240
.321
.427
0.3
-0.8
4.05
6.93
Matt Seelinger
.286
.390
.500
.227
.337
.400
0.1
-0.6
4.87
6.98
McKinley Moore
.233
.387
.417
.235
.346
.412
0.1
-0.5
4.59
6.32
Brett Schulze
.230
.368
.437
.247
.355
.398
0.2
-0.7
4.68
6.47
Taylor Lehman
.220
.328
.320
.280
.376
.505
0.1
-0.6
4.86
6.58
Erich Uelmen
.293
.403
.465
.236
.336
.431
0.1
-0.8
5.28
6.94
Tyler McKay
.270
.377
.427
.269
.355
.454
0.0
-0.7
5.16
6.44
Hector Perez
.253
.385
.421
.254
.369
.432
0.2
-0.9
4.99
6.96
Zach Linginfelter
.279
.417
.485
.259
.379
.471
-0.1
-0.8
5.84
7.87
Carlos A Francisco
.291
.408
.512
.224
.328
.383
0.0
-0.8
5.07
6.43
Jace Vines
.284
.385
.478
.264
.372
.472
-0.1
-0.7
5.50
7.30
Jake Thompson
.280
.419
.440
.262
.378
.508
-0.2
-0.7
5.65
7.46
Louis Head
.268
.388
.518
.247
.364
.466
-0.1
-0.8
5.36
7.84
Tommy McCollum
.200
.371
.400
.263
.388
.425
-0.1
-1.0
5.22
7.33
Trey Cobb
.257
.381
.486
.274
.392
.429
-0.2
-0.9
5.51
7.37
Max Kuhns
.280
.429
.500
.250
.368
.464
-0.3
-0.9
5.92
8.18
Andrew Baker
.257
.421
.473
.218
.367
.372
-0.2
-1.1
5.55
7.68
Andrew Schultz
.250
.415
.469
.257
.385
.432
-0.3
-1.0
5.90
7.85
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.