For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Oakland Athletics.
Batters
The A’s are the most depressing team in baseball, hands down. They actually have some competition if we’re talking about the worst team in baseball, but neither the Colorado Rockies nor the Chicago White Sox feel quite as miserable as the A’s. How often does a player take the opportunity to go all-out on the team’s owner when they announce their retirement?
Unlike other teams in full tank mode, the A’s don’t even have a bevy of young players to watch. Zack Gelof looks like a legitimate player, and Brent Rooker’s power plays well if you keep him firmly planted at DH, but I’m struggling to find any highlights otherwise. Shea Langeliers is running out of time to make progress in his plate discipline or patch the hole in his swing, and as exciting as Esteury Ruiz can be, he’s still an extremely flawed player overall. I guess that Darell Hernaiz gets a nice enough projection, but we’ve gone from anticipating the A’s salary-dumping their stars to watching a roster that really doesn’t have many players who other teams would want.
In our 2023 updated farm system rankings, the A’s ranked 28th, and ZiPS isn’t finding a lot that would gainsay that estimation. Only a single position players projects as being worth 10 WAR over the next five years (Gelof). If you fast forward to 2027, only three A’s hitters project at 1.5 WAR (Gelof, Hernaiz, and Nick Allen). The most you can say about the farm is that it’s rich in role players, with ZiPS being relatively nice to some fringe guys like Jonah Bride and Max Schuemann. But if/when the A’s get to Las Vegas, the city will be home to one of the worst teams in baseball.
Pitchers
Things are brighter when we move to the pitching staff. The A’s seem determined to pitch Mason Miller out of the bullpen in 2024, where he projects just fine, though ZiPS still thinks that he could be one of the better starters in the league fairly quickly. ZiPS also gives Mitch Spence a surprisingly strong projection, and is more optimistic than Steamer is about JP Sears. The computer also rewards Ken Waldichuk for the progress he made in the second half last year, though due to a non-Tommy John procedure on his UCL, his spring training status isn’t known yet. On the flip side, ZiPS doesn’t see much upside remaining in Paul Blackburn or Luis Medina, and thinks both Joe Boyle and Osvaldo Bido will struggle if they get the innings we currently have them slated for on our depth chart. One thing that lousy A’s teams have been able to do in the past is crank out acceptable-ish fourth and fifth starters like they have an 1890’s widget factory. That really fell apart in a disastrous 2023 season, but ZiPS is still optimistic they can at least return to their prior form.
The bullpen projects as surprisingly adequate, not that there will be many leads to hold. Miller should be fine, and Lucas Erceg and Dany Jiménez have some kind of upside. Trevor Gott will be fine in the middle of the depth chart, and ZiPS is interested in Michael Kelly and Vinny Nittoli, though both would probably be in the minors if the season started today.
What does it all add up to? The silver lining here is that the A’s weren’t really quite as bad as they played early in 2023. None of the positions or individual pitchers on the depth chart graphic actually project with a sub-replacement level WAR, so the floor is higher than many think; they’re unlikely to make another run at the 2003 Tigers or the 1962 Mets. But there’s just not much in the way of upside here. They could win more than 70 games, but they’d basically have to draw their flush on the river for five or six consecutive hands. Right now, ZiPS has the A’s somewhere between 60-68 wins — the system is appalled at the depth that isn’t on the depth chart, especially among the hitters. That’s better than the 50 wins they finished with last year, but that’s about as sunny as I can be about this franchise right now.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Zack Gelof
R
24
2B
554
500
68
118
27
2
16
65
49
163
21
4
Brent Rooker
R
29
DH
527
463
58
111
20
1
27
69
50
167
4
1
Darell Hernaiz
R
22
SS
559
511
68
126
25
4
8
55
35
97
10
3
Jonah Bride
R
28
3B
403
345
45
80
17
2
7
40
45
76
2
1
Esteury Ruiz
R
25
CF
510
457
63
114
25
2
8
52
31
106
53
11
Shea Langeliers
R
26
C
475
434
55
98
20
2
20
60
35
134
2
1
Nick Allen
R
25
SS
489
441
51
106
20
2
5
42
33
82
11
3
Abraham Toro
B
27
3B
446
400
51
97
23
2
10
45
37
84
5
2
Brett Harris
R
26
3B
452
400
48
93
17
2
8
50
34
88
6
2
Max Schuemann
R
27
CF
479
413
62
92
18
3
6
49
44
122
17
6
Ryan Noda
L
28
1B
504
423
60
89
19
1
17
51
67
166
4
1
Yohel Pozo
R
27
C
374
360
36
97
20
1
9
44
11
46
1
1
Daz Cameron
R
27
CF
441
398
51
90
20
2
10
47
31
119
14
4
Cody Thomas
L
29
RF
448
413
43
95
23
5
12
51
28
125
2
1
Tony Kemp
L
32
LF
421
367
46
90
17
3
5
34
39
48
12
3
Manny Piña
R
37
C
131
116
14
25
5
0
5
15
10
26
0
1
Seth Brown
L
31
RF
420
383
48
88
20
2
19
57
33
115
4
1
Armando Alvarez
R
29
1B
357
328
43
81
19
0
11
38
24
70
4
1
Denzel Clarke
R
24
CF
339
299
41
59
13
3
9
40
30
127
8
2
Hoy Park
L
28
RF
412
356
47
79
14
2
7
34
48
106
10
2
Cooper Bowman
R
24
2B
379
335
44
69
15
2
6
34
30
109
20
3
Carlos Perez
R
33
C
348
315
32
69
15
0
11
37
24
72
0
1
Miguel Andujar
R
29
RF
477
444
51
116
24
1
12
51
29
68
5
2
JJ Bleday
L
26
CF
487
422
55
89
21
2
15
51
59
117
5
2
Lawrence Butler
L
23
CF
516
474
60
109
21
3
13
55
36
141
13
3
Aledmys Díaz
R
33
SS
328
302
28
72
18
0
6
29
18
61
1
1
Kevin Cron
R
31
1B
220
199
23
43
9
0
9
27
16
74
0
1
Brennan Milone
R
23
1B
479
425
47
96
21
1
8
47
43
116
1
1
Chase Calabuig
L
28
LF
349
316
36
76
15
2
4
31
29
58
1
1
Jack Winkler
R
25
3B
445
406
42
85
17
2
4
36
29
113
9
3
Michael Guldberg
R
25
LF
174
158
18
34
6
1
1
14
10
43
3
1
Max Muncy
R
21
SS
571
517
54
105
26
1
9
53
39
195
8
3
Shane McGuire
L
25
C
372
325
30
67
11
1
2
27
36
92
2
1
Jeremy Eierman
R
27
2B
270
249
24
45
11
1
6
28
15
106
3
2
Greg Deichmann
L
29
RF
397
362
40
73
14
3
8
37
31
135
9
3
Tyler Soderstrom
L
22
C
502
467
45
98
16
3
17
56
28
145
1
1
Jonny Butler
L
25
RF
315
288
29
57
9
4
5
30
21
97
10
1
Drew Swift
R
25
3B
317
284
31
55
10
2
0
20
25
98
7
2
Drew Lugbauer
L
27
1B
432
392
41
75
17
1
19
45
35
189
1
1
Joshwan Wright
R
23
2B
286
265
22
60
11
2
1
22
13
57
2
1
Logan Davidson
B
26
1B
463
421
43
86
18
1
7
41
37
145
3
2
JJ Schwarz
R
28
C
303
274
22
55
11
0
5
26
27
92
0
1
Lazaro Armenteros
R
25
DH
423
375
45
76
14
2
11
49
39
186
10
7
Jeisson Rosario
L
24
RF
449
392
40
78
16
1
5
32
51
136
6
4
Daniel Susac
R
23
C
447
415
33
92
15
2
4
39
25
123
4
1
Cooper Uhl
R
26
C
178
154
13
26
2
0
1
12
18
62
0
1
Euribiel Angeles
R
22
3B
446
429
31
99
16
2
3
35
10
79
10
3
Kyle McCann
L
26
C
393
355
38
66
14
0
10
41
32
154
1
1
Jordan Diaz
R
23
3B
502
472
40
113
23
0
12
55
23
100
0
1
Caeden Trenkle
L
23
CF
328
300
40
62
7
2
4
30
19
104
5
2
Cameron Masterman
R
25
RF
269
247
29
46
11
0
4
24
15
103
2
1
Junior Perez
R
22
CF
512
463
50
87
20
1
8
44
39
197
21
6
Brayan Buelvas
R
22
CF
430
395
39
77
18
3
7
38
26
130
13
3
Colby Thomas
R
23
RF
573
534
60
113
28
4
10
61
24
187
13
4
Daniel Bautista
R
23
1B
460
425
39
97
19
2
2
37
19
78
9
6
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Zack Gelof
554
.236
.307
.394
100
.158
.318
1
2.0
.306
66
Brent Rooker
527
.240
.324
.462
123
.222
.312
0
1.9
.338
71
Darell Hernaiz
559
.247
.300
.358
89
.112
.291
3
1.6
.289
58
Jonah Bride
403
.232
.333
.354
98
.122
.279
4
1.6
.308
41
Esteury Ruiz
510
.249
.319
.365
96
.116
.309
-3
1.6
.303
68
Shea Langeliers
475
.226
.288
.419
100
.194
.279
-3
1.5
.303
53
Nick Allen
489
.240
.296
.329
80
.088
.285
7
1.4
.278
46
Abraham Toro
446
.243
.314
.385
100
.143
.284
0
1.3
.306
50
Brett Harris
452
.233
.309
.345
88
.113
.280
5
1.3
.291
45
Max Schuemann
479
.223
.318
.324
86
.102
.302
2
1.0
.290
49
Ryan Noda
504
.210
.331
.381
104
.170
.300
1
0.9
.316
55
Yohel Pozo
374
.269
.291
.406
98
.136
.289
-4
0.8
.298
43
Daz Cameron
441
.226
.291
.362
86
.136
.297
2
0.8
.286
46
Cody Thomas
448
.230
.283
.397
93
.167
.301
7
0.8
.293
47
Tony Kemp
421
.245
.325
.349
94
.104
.271
3
0.8
.300
45
Manny Piña
131
.216
.298
.388
95
.172
.235
3
0.8
.300
14
Seth Brown
420
.230
.293
.441
107
.211
.277
-1
0.7
.312
51
Armando Alvarez
357
.247
.297
.405
99
.159
.283
5
0.7
.303
41
Denzel Clarke
339
.197
.286
.351
82
.154
.307
3
0.7
.282
32
Hoy Park
412
.222
.318
.331
88
.110
.296
4
0.6
.291
40
Cooper Bowman
379
.206
.285
.316
73
.110
.286
3
0.6
.269
35
Carlos Perez
348
.219
.285
.371
87
.152
.250
-2
0.6
.287
34
Miguel Andujar
477
.261
.306
.401
101
.140
.286
0
0.5
.305
56
JJ Bleday
487
.211
.310
.377
96
.166
.255
-8
0.5
.303
51
Lawrence Butler
516
.230
.285
.369
86
.139
.300
-2
0.4
.284
54
Aledmys Díaz
328
.238
.293
.358
86
.119
.281
-5
0.0
.283
32
Kevin Cron
220
.216
.282
.397
92
.181
.293
1
0.0
.292
23
Brennan Milone
479
.226
.303
.336
84
.111
.292
5
0.0
.285
44
Chase Calabuig
349
.241
.307
.339
86
.098
.283
1
0.0
.287
33
Jack Winkler
445
.209
.273
.291
62
.081
.280
6
-0.1
.253
35
Michael Guldberg
174
.215
.273
.285
61
.070
.289
4
-0.2
.251
13
Max Muncy
571
.203
.266
.309
65
.106
.307
1
-0.2
.256
45
Shane McGuire
372
.206
.295
.265
63
.058
.281
-2
-0.3
.258
26
Jeremy Eierman
270
.181
.238
.305
55
.124
.285
5
-0.3
.240
20
Greg Deichmann
397
.202
.268
.323
69
.122
.297
6
-0.3
.262
34
Tyler Soderstrom
502
.210
.257
.366
76
.156
.266
-7
-0.3
.268
45
Jonny Butler
315
.198
.260
.309
63
.111
.280
5
-0.4
.251
26
Drew Swift
317
.194
.265
.243
48
.049
.296
6
-0.4
.234
21
Drew Lugbauer
432
.191
.264
.385
84
.194
.304
1
-0.5
.281
40
Joshwan Wright
286
.226
.270
.294
62
.068
.285
-1
-0.6
.251
22
Logan Davidson
463
.204
.271
.302
65
.097
.294
10
-0.6
.256
36
JJ Schwarz
303
.201
.274
.296
64
.095
.282
-5
-0.6
.256
23
Lazaro Armenteros
423
.203
.289
.339
80
.136
.365
0
-0.7
.280
42
Jeisson Rosario
449
.199
.295
.283
68
.084
.291
3
-0.7
.265
36
Daniel Susac
447
.222
.271
.296
63
.075
.306
-5
-0.7
.251
35
Cooper Uhl
178
.169
.271
.201
39
.032
.275
-2
-0.8
.227
9
Euribiel Angeles
446
.231
.251
.298
57
.068
.277
3
-0.8
.240
35
Kyle McCann
393
.186
.262
.310
64
.124
.293
-7
-0.8
.256
29
Jordan Diaz
502
.239
.279
.364
83
.125
.281
-12
-1.0
.279
48
Caeden Trenkle
328
.207
.265
.283
58
.077
.302
-3
-1.0
.246
24
Cameron Masterman
269
.186
.242
.279
49
.093
.300
3
-1.1
.232
17
Junior Perez
512
.188
.254
.287
56
.099
.306
-2
-1.3
.242
41
Brayan Buelvas
430
.195
.254
.309
61
.114
.271
-7
-1.4
.249
35
Colby Thomas
573
.212
.261
.335
70
.124
.306
-1
-1.5
.261
51
Daniel Bautista
460
.228
.273
.296
64
.068
.275
1
-1.7
.253
39
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Zack Gelof
.260
.335
.440
118
3.3
.210
.283
.342
81
0.6
Brent Rooker
.266
.350
.520
145
3.2
.215
.298
.414
105
0.7
Darell Hernaiz
.272
.325
.406
109
3.0
.221
.275
.322
73
0.5
Jonah Bride
.257
.363
.401
117
2.6
.203
.306
.307
78
0.6
Esteury Ruiz
.277
.344
.414
118
2.9
.228
.294
.327
81
0.4
Shea Langeliers
.255
.318
.483
124
2.8
.196
.261
.362
77
0.1
Nick Allen
.268
.323
.368
96
2.5
.215
.271
.291
62
0.4
Abraham Toro
.267
.340
.431
117
2.3
.218
.293
.341
83
0.4
Brett Harris
.263
.336
.389
108
2.3
.208
.283
.303
70
0.3
Max Schuemann
.246
.343
.362
101
1.9
.196
.295
.283
67
-0.1
Ryan Noda
.232
.354
.427
122
2.0
.184
.306
.330
86
-0.2
Yohel Pozo
.299
.316
.451
117
1.8
.243
.264
.356
77
-0.1
Daz Cameron
.250
.317
.408
105
1.8
.199
.262
.316
64
-0.5
Cody Thomas
.254
.307
.440
111
1.8
.204
.257
.348
74
-0.2
Tony Kemp
.275
.356
.397
114
1.8
.221
.300
.310
75
-0.2
Manny Piña
.243
.324
.452
119
1.1
.187
.272
.328
74
0.4
Seth Brown
.254
.312
.496
126
1.7
.204
.267
.384
86
-0.3
Armando Alvarez
.273
.325
.451
118
1.5
.219
.270
.360
80
-0.1
Denzel Clarke
.222
.311
.396
101
1.4
.168
.261
.302
63
-0.1
Hoy Park
.245
.346
.375
105
1.5
.195
.292
.291
69
-0.3
Cooper Bowman
.233
.310
.363
94
1.5
.178
.262
.274
57
-0.3
Carlos Perez
.246
.310
.428
108
1.5
.193
.261
.323
68
-0.2
Miguel Andujar
.293
.335
.445
123
1.8
.235
.277
.351
82
-0.6
JJ Bleday
.232
.338
.431
117
1.6
.186
.284
.334
77
-0.6
Lawrence Butler
.255
.312
.415
104
1.6
.206
.264
.327
70
-0.6
Aledmys Díaz
.262
.319
.399
104
0.7
.210
.266
.315
68
-0.7
Kevin Cron
.243
.308
.457
112
0.5
.188
.257
.344
70
-0.6
Brennan Milone
.253
.332
.381
104
1.1
.199
.279
.293
67
-1.1
Chase Calabuig
.270
.334
.382
104
0.8
.216
.280
.304
68
-0.8
Jack Winkler
.234
.297
.328
78
0.7
.182
.246
.254
43
-1.1
Michael Guldberg
.243
.303
.330
80
0.3
.190
.248
.249
45
-0.5
Max Muncy
.227
.295
.353
86
1.2
.176
.241
.269
48
-1.5
Shane McGuire
.238
.328
.307
84
0.7
.177
.266
.229
44
-1.1
Jeremy Eierman
.207
.267
.359
76
0.4
.152
.210
.259
33
-1.0
Greg Deichmann
.230
.297
.368
90
0.7
.176
.238
.286
52
-1.2
Tyler Soderstrom
.240
.285
.424
98
1.0
.181
.231
.310
56
-1.6
Jonny Butler
.227
.290
.358
84
0.5
.172
.235
.268
46
-1.0
Drew Swift
.219
.295
.276
65
0.3
.167
.236
.209
32
-1.1
Drew Lugbauer
.219
.290
.446
106
0.7
.163
.239
.332
62
-1.6
Joshwan Wright
.257
.297
.349
86
0.2
.197
.239
.254
44
-1.2
Logan Davidson
.229
.294
.339
80
0.2
.181
.247
.264
48
-1.6
JJ Schwarz
.232
.308
.346
85
0.2
.174
.244
.258
45
-1.4
Lazaro Armenteros
.231
.312
.389
98
0.2
.170
.254
.281
55
-2.0
Jeisson Rosario
.228
.323
.323
86
0.3
.172
.267
.242
49
-1.7
Daniel Susac
.249
.295
.332
81
0.3
.197
.246
.260
47
-1.6
Cooper Uhl
.196
.303
.234
56
-0.3
.139
.237
.167
20
-1.2
Euribiel Angeles
.258
.277
.337
77
0.3
.204
.226
.260
40
-1.8
Kyle McCann
.212
.290
.358
83
0.1
.159
.232
.265
42
-1.9
Jordan Diaz
.265
.305
.411
102
0.1
.216
.256
.323
67
-2.1
Caeden Trenkle
.231
.290
.330
76
-0.3
.182
.243
.248
43
-1.7
Cameron Masterman
.220
.269
.322
69
-0.4
.161
.212
.239
30
-1.7
Junior Perez
.215
.277
.324
72
-0.2
.166
.230
.250
40
-2.4
Brayan Buelvas
.225
.280
.353
80
-0.4
.169
.229
.267
44
-2.3
Colby Thomas
.236
.286
.378
88
-0.3
.190
.239
.303
55
-2.6
Daniel Bautista
.255
.300
.334
81
-0.6
.198
.245
.255
46
-2.7
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Zack Gelof
.239
.318
.406
.234
.301
.388
Brent Rooker
.250
.338
.478
.233
.316
.452
Darell Hernaiz
.245
.301
.354
.248
.299
.361
Jonah Bride
.233
.342
.372
.231
.328
.343
Esteury Ruiz
.263
.338
.403
.240
.305
.339
Shea Langeliers
.232
.301
.435
.222
.280
.410
Nick Allen
.252
.314
.352
.234
.286
.316
Abraham Toro
.246
.314
.373
.241
.314
.391
Brett Harris
.235
.311
.356
.231
.307
.339
Max Schuemann
.232
.326
.357
.216
.312
.302
Ryan Noda
.199
.319
.353
.217
.339
.397
Yohel Pozo
.280
.302
.420
.263
.284
.396
Daz Cameron
.232
.301
.374
.222
.285
.354
Cody Thomas
.222
.277
.365
.233
.286
.411
Tony Kemp
.241
.326
.337
.246
.324
.352
Manny Piña
.231
.318
.436
.208
.287
.364
Seth Brown
.216
.281
.364
.234
.296
.464
Armando Alvarez
.253
.306
.418
.242
.289
.396
Denzel Clarke
.200
.292
.352
.196
.283
.351
Hoy Park
.218
.305
.315
.224
.325
.341
Cooper Bowman
.214
.295
.325
.202
.279
.312
Carlos Perez
.223
.291
.397
.216
.282
.356
Miguel Andujar
.267
.315
.420
.259
.302
.391
JJ Bleday
.208
.296
.369
.212
.318
.381
Lawrence Butler
.218
.268
.341
.237
.294
.385
Aledmys Díaz
.234
.291
.362
.240
.293
.356
Kevin Cron
.227
.297
.409
.211
.274
.391
Brennan Milone
.230
.310
.345
.224
.299
.332
Chase Calabuig
.223
.282
.300
.253
.324
.366
Jack Winkler
.216
.281
.317
.206
.268
.277
Michael Guldberg
.228
.290
.263
.208
.264
.297
Max Muncy
.207
.274
.330
.201
.262
.299
Shane McGuire
.204
.288
.235
.207
.297
.278
Jeremy Eierman
.186
.248
.330
.178
.232
.289
Greg Deichmann
.187
.254
.285
.209
.275
.343
Tyler Soderstrom
.209
.254
.356
.210
.259
.372
Jonny Butler
.184
.250
.264
.204
.265
.328
Drew Swift
.200
.279
.260
.190
.257
.234
Drew Lugbauer
.184
.250
.347
.196
.272
.408
Joshwan Wright
.231
.278
.296
.223
.263
.293
Logan Davidson
.202
.266
.298
.206
.273
.304
JJ Schwarz
.204
.283
.306
.199
.268
.289
Lazaro Armenteros
.215
.306
.362
.196
.280
.327
Jeisson Rosario
.194
.288
.254
.202
.298
.298
Daniel Susac
.226
.278
.301
.220
.267
.294
Cooper Uhl
.170
.279
.189
.168
.267
.208
Euribiel Angeles
.233
.257
.301
.229
.246
.296
Kyle McCann
.178
.254
.287
.190
.267
.323
Jordan Diaz
.245
.287
.388
.236
.273
.348
Caeden Trenkle
.202
.258
.281
.209
.268
.284
Cameron Masterman
.190
.253
.316
.185
.236
.262
Junior Perez
.196
.271
.307
.183
.243
.275
Brayan Buelvas
.200
.261
.329
.192
.250
.298
Colby Thomas
.216
.268
.351
.209
.258
.328
Daniel Bautista
.239
.282
.319
.221
.267
.282
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
JP Sears
143.3
8.4
2.8
1.3
7.5%
22.0%
.290
99
4.34
101
2.1
Mitch Spence
135.7
7.0
2.9
1.0
7.5%
17.8%
.300
97
4.27
103
1.8
Ken Waldichuk
122.7
9.0
4.0
1.0
10.3%
22.9%
.297
93
4.30
107
1.4
Jack Cushing
110.0
6.7
2.5
1.2
6.3%
17.3%
.300
95
4.41
105
1.3
Joey Estes
130.7
6.8
3.0
1.2
7.7%
17.6%
.285
89
4.73
112
1.3
Paul Blackburn
109.7
7.1
3.2
1.1
8.1%
18.1%
.310
91
4.39
110
1.2
Domingo Robles
109.7
6.2
3.0
1.1
7.7%
15.8%
.303
88
4.56
114
1.0
Luis Medina
107.7
8.9
4.9
1.0
12.0%
21.6%
.295
90
4.57
112
1.0
Kyle Muller
129.0
7.5
3.9
1.0
9.7%
18.7%
.299
86
4.51
116
0.9
James Kaprielian
92.0
8.2
3.5
1.3
9.1%
21.3%
.288
90
4.60
111
0.9
Brady Basso
64.0
7.5
2.5
1.1
6.6%
19.4%
.295
99
4.16
101
0.9
Royber Salinas
86.7
9.0
4.9
1.0
12.2%
22.5%
.289
91
4.51
110
0.9
Adrián Martínez
102.0
7.2
3.4
1.1
8.6%
18.2%
.299
90
4.66
111
0.9
David Leal
89.7
5.6
2.0
1.1
5.2%
14.7%
.299
92
4.44
109
0.8
Osvaldo Bido
97.0
8.2
4.1
1.0
10.3%
20.7%
.297
89
4.58
112
0.8
Drew Rucinski
114.7
8.9
4.2
1.3
10.5%
21.9%
.314
84
4.69
118
0.8
Aaron Wilkerson
64.0
8.0
2.5
1.3
6.6%
20.9%
.305
96
4.24
104
0.8
Freddy Tarnok
72.0
8.1
4.1
1.1
10.3%
20.4%
.295
92
4.57
108
0.8
Gunnar Hoglund
67.3
4.8
1.7
1.1
4.5%
12.5%
.295
92
4.44
109
0.8
Jack O’Loughlin
100.7
6.8
3.9
1.1
9.8%
17.0%
.299
85
4.84
117
0.8
Joe Boyle
100.0
10.4
6.8
1.1
16.0%
24.6%
.292
85
4.98
118
0.7
Hogan Harris
98.7
8.3
4.5
1.1
11.2%
20.8%
.295
85
4.69
117
0.6
Blake Beers
100.0
6.5
3.5
1.2
8.8%
16.3%
.293
85
5.01
118
0.6
Mason Miller
55.7
11.5
3.6
1.0
9.5%
30.6%
.279
119
3.45
84
0.6
Joelvis Del Rosario
94.7
5.5
3.3
1.1
8.4%
13.9%
.294
83
4.95
120
0.6
Grant Holman
46.7
8.1
2.9
1.2
7.5%
21.0%
.296
100
4.28
100
0.5
Austin Pruitt
57.7
6.6
2.3
1.2
6.1%
17.2%
.287
100
4.49
100
0.5
Brian Howard
72.0
7.0
3.9
1.1
9.6%
17.4%
.302
87
4.74
114
0.5
Zach Neal
84.7
5.6
2.3
1.3
6.0%
14.5%
.300
84
4.80
118
0.5
Colin Peluse
80.7
6.0
3.1
1.2
7.9%
15.3%
.295
86
4.80
116
0.4
J.T. Ginn
57.3
5.7
3.5
1.1
8.7%
14.2%
.296
83
5.05
120
0.4
Domingo Acevedo
41.0
8.3
2.2
1.1
5.9%
22.4%
.287
108
3.79
92
0.4
Vinny Nittoli
42.7
8.6
3.2
1.1
8.1%
22.2%
.306
101
4.12
99
0.3
Anthony Kay
54.0
9.7
5.0
1.2
12.4%
24.0%
.306
91
4.74
110
0.3
Colton Eastman
69.7
6.6
5.0
1.0
12.1%
15.8%
.298
82
5.09
121
0.3
Trevor Gott
51.3
9.1
3.3
1.1
8.7%
23.9%
.298
100
4.03
100
0.3
Michael Kelly
51.7
9.6
4.0
1.0
10.1%
24.1%
.307
97
4.09
103
0.3
Ryan Cusick
83.7
7.0
5.5
1.2
13.1%
16.8%
.294
80
5.35
125
0.3
Vinny Nittoli
42.7
8.6
3.2
1.1
8.1%
22.2%
.306
101
4.12
99
0.3
Dany Jiménez
36.0
11.0
5.5
1.3
13.6%
27.2%
.287
95
4.45
105
0.2
Richard Lovelady
28.7
8.5
3.1
0.9
8.3%
22.3%
.288
99
3.99
101
0.2
Francisco Perez
53.3
9.8
5.2
1.0
13.0%
24.3%
.293
92
4.40
109
0.2
Lucas Erceg
51.7
9.9
5.4
0.7
13.4%
24.6%
.296
97
4.20
103
0.2
Trey Supak
85.0
5.3
3.2
1.3
8.0%
13.3%
.295
81
5.22
123
0.2
Trevor May
43.3
9.8
4.4
1.2
10.9%
24.5%
.298
97
4.41
103
0.1
Stevie Emanuels
38.3
9.9
4.5
1.2
10.9%
24.1%
.290
96
4.48
105
0.1
Durbin Feltman
43.0
8.0
3.8
1.0
9.5%
20.0%
.290
92
4.32
109
0.1
Bryce Conley
55.3
7.0
4.6
1.1
11.1%
17.1%
.296
80
5.13
125
0.1
Zach Jackson
37.0
11.2
5.4
1.2
12.9%
27.1%
.300
92
4.39
108
0.1
Easton Lucas
48.0
7.9
3.6
1.1
9.0%
19.8%
.303
94
4.44
107
0.0
Chase Cohen
54.7
8.1
5.3
1.2
12.7%
19.4%
.302
85
5.05
118
0.0
Jasseel De La Cruz
42.3
6.8
4.5
1.3
10.8%
16.5%
.298
79
5.29
126
0.0
Angel Felipe
43.0
10.5
5.2
1.0
12.8%
25.5%
.303
92
4.46
109
0.0
Kirby Snead
42.7
8.2
4.2
1.1
10.5%
20.5%
.306
87
4.57
115
0.0
Sean Newcomb
37.0
9.2
5.1
1.2
12.4%
22.5%
.304
83
4.82
120
0.0
Zack Godley
47.0
7.5
5.2
1.3
12.3%
17.8%
.298
75
5.64
133
0.0
Norge Ruiz
46.3
6.0
3.3
1.2
8.2%
15.0%
.307
83
4.83
120
0.0
Yacksel Ríos
33.0
9.0
4.9
1.1
11.9%
21.9%
.289
87
4.65
115
-0.1
Jack Weisenburger
29.3
8.9
6.4
1.2
15.0%
20.7%
.296
82
5.30
121
-0.1
Michel Otanez
36.7
10.3
6.6
1.2
15.4%
24.0%
.298
82
5.19
121
-0.1
Danis Correa
41.0
8.8
5.3
1.1
12.7%
21.2%
.292
84
4.94
119
-0.1
Jeurys Familia
32.3
8.6
5.0
1.1
12.2%
21.1%
.312
85
4.80
117
-0.1
Gerson Moreno
57.0
10.4
6.0
1.1
14.6%
25.4%
.289
85
4.90
117
-0.2
Gerardo Reyes
47.3
9.9
5.1
1.1
12.7%
24.5%
.298
85
4.67
118
-0.2
Shohei Tomioka
51.0
7.2
4.9
1.2
11.9%
17.4%
.299
79
5.37
127
-0.2
Spencer Patton
44.3
7.7
4.5
1.2
11.0%
19.0%
.298
83
5.06
121
-0.2
Joe Wieland
27.3
5.6
5.3
1.3
12.6%
13.4%
.300
77
5.67
130
-0.2
Miguel Romero
45.7
5.5
4.9
1.2
11.8%
13.3%
.295
76
5.64
132
-0.2
Garrett Williams
54.3
10.1
7.5
1.2
17.5%
23.7%
.293
74
5.67
135
-0.3
Aaron Brown
44.7
8.1
6.0
1.2
14.4%
19.2%
.300
77
5.43
130
-0.3
Tyler Ferguson
62.7
8.3
5.5
1.1
13.1%
20.0%
.296
78
5.17
128
-0.4
Charles Hall
43.3
8.1
6.4
1.2
15.0%
18.8%
.296
78
5.47
128
-0.4
Tyler Baum
32.7
8.5
8.0
1.4
17.7%
18.9%
.286
67
6.47
150
-0.5
Billy Sullivan
51.3
8.4
6.8
1.1
16.0%
19.8%
.292
74
5.59
134
-0.6
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
JP Sears
.240
.303
.327
.249
.314
.451
3.0
1.1
3.60
4.64
Mitch Spence
.252
.319
.386
.269
.326
.428
2.7
1.0
3.71
4.65
Ken Waldichuk
.219
.312
.292
.249
.335
.424
2.4
0.4
3.74
4.99
Jack Cushing
.273
.323
.463
.264
.308
.409
2.1
0.7
3.71
4.70
Joey Estes
.241
.323
.388
.264
.327
.443
2.1
0.4
4.03
5.14
Paul Blackburn
.265
.337
.420
.273
.325
.423
1.9
0.5
3.94
5.03
Domingo Robles
.264
.329
.371
.274
.333
.455
1.6
0.3
4.17
5.19
Luis Medina
.248
.346
.396
.234
.339
.374
1.6
0.0
4.06
5.19
Kyle Muller
.220
.313
.340
.272
.343
.441
1.8
-0.1
4.13
5.39
James Kaprielian
.258
.338
.427
.235
.305
.408
1.6
0.1
3.91
5.37
Brady Basso
.263
.310
.400
.251
.306
.415
1.4
0.5
3.50
4.71
Royber Salinas
.241
.347
.393
.230
.326
.380
1.6
0.1
3.88
5.12
Adrián Martínez
.269
.355
.440
.254
.317
.404
1.5
0.2
4.03
4.99
David Leal
.278
.325
.389
.273
.316
.451
1.3
0.2
4.00
5.00
Osvaldo Bido
.259
.362
.429
.240
.322
.370
1.6
0.0
4.00
5.22
Drew Rucinski
.267
.365
.448
.254
.328
.410
1.7
-0.1
4.18
5.50
Aaron Wilkerson
.271
.342
.449
.253
.290
.411
1.3
0.2
3.54
5.13
Freddy Tarnok
.265
.348
.449
.234
.317
.359
1.3
0.3
3.86
4.93
Gunnar Hoglund
.276
.319
.433
.277
.310
.438
1.2
0.4
3.92
4.94
Jack O’Loughlin
.262
.355
.430
.264
.342
.414
1.3
0.2
4.26
5.22
Joe Boyle
.214
.357
.352
.237
.365
.404
1.4
-0.5
4.16
5.79
Hogan Harris
.250
.349
.361
.246
.338
.420
1.4
-0.2
4.15
5.52
Blake Beers
.271
.358
.436
.255
.329
.413
1.1
0.0
4.36
5.27
Mason Miller
.208
.298
.356
.200
.280
.324
1.1
-0.1
2.74
4.52
Joelvis Del Rosario
.305
.378
.466
.244
.305
.405
1.0
0.0
4.42
5.41
Grant Holman
.258
.327
.404
.245
.308
.415
1.0
0.2
3.35
4.74
Austin Pruitt
.240
.300
.400
.273
.314
.445
1.0
0.1
3.50
4.76
Brian Howard
.281
.361
.482
.250
.321
.378
1.0
0.0
4.10
5.22
Zach Neal
.283
.339
.447
.273
.318
.459
1.0
0.0
4.23
5.43
Colin Peluse
.257
.329
.408
.281
.328
.468
0.9
-0.1
4.20
5.24
J.T. Ginn
.288
.364
.490
.256
.333
.376
0.7
0.0
4.40
5.38
Domingo Acevedo
.250
.308
.403
.233
.272
.395
0.7
-0.1
3.12
4.61
Vinny Nittoli
.256
.333
.410
.247
.313
.393
0.7
-0.1
3.50
5.14
Anthony Kay
.243
.333
.443
.245
.358
.381
0.8
-0.3
3.93
5.67
Colton Eastman
.252
.353
.382
.274
.363
.452
0.7
-0.2
4.47
5.55
Trevor Gott
.253
.337
.437
.232
.298
.357
0.8
-0.3
3.27
5.00
Michael Kelly
.247
.340
.355
.241
.314
.426
0.8
-0.3
3.48
5.14
Ryan Cusick
.252
.360
.437
.267
.362
.417
0.9
-0.3
4.52
5.60
Vinny Nittoli
.256
.333
.410
.247
.313
.393
0.7
-0.1
3.50
5.14
Dany Jiménez
.237
.366
.458
.208
.295
.338
0.7
-0.3
3.29
5.40
Richard Lovelady
.216
.293
.324
.247
.317
.411
0.5
-0.1
3.37
4.72
Francisco Perez
.225
.337
.324
.233
.335
.406
0.7
-0.3
3.62
5.15
Lucas Erceg
.244
.376
.378
.208
.320
.311
0.6
-0.4
3.67
4.89
Trey Supak
.273
.354
.468
.280
.337
.439
0.7
-0.4
4.47
5.54
Trevor May
.241
.333
.418
.239
.320
.398
0.6
-0.4
3.33
5.27
Stevie Emanuels
.239
.341
.437
.224
.318
.355
0.4
-0.3
3.59
5.14
Durbin Feltman
.260
.329
.403
.233
.314
.389
0.4
-0.3
3.71
5.12
Bryce Conley
.263
.372
.442
.258
.340
.403
0.5
-0.4
4.47
5.88
Zach Jackson
.227
.338
.439
.227
.330
.347
0.6
-0.5
3.44
5.65
Easton Lucas
.238
.314
.317
.268
.338
.465
0.4
-0.4
3.74
5.00
Chase Cohen
.269
.384
.419
.246
.336
.410
0.4
-0.5
4.25
5.53
Jasseel De La Cruz
.266
.356
.418
.267
.356
.456
0.3
-0.3
4.56
5.81
Angel Felipe
.247
.363
.442
.218
.330
.333
0.4
-0.5
3.68
5.29
Kirby Snead
.228
.313
.404
.270
.359
.414
0.4
-0.4
4.04
5.41
Sean Newcomb
.238
.333
.405
.252
.355
.417
0.4
-0.5
4.07
6.01
Zack Godley
.270
.387
.461
.255
.357
.418
0.2
-0.5
4.83
6.23
Norge Ruiz
.274
.340
.405
.282
.342
.476
0.3
-0.5
4.29
5.67
Yacksel Ríos
.246
.358
.439
.229
.321
.357
0.3
-0.4
3.83
5.58
Jack Weisenburger
.264
.391
.434
.230
.342
.410
0.2
-0.5
4.17
5.89
Michel Otanez
.213
.368
.393
.250
.365
.413
0.2
-0.5
4.22
5.89
Danis Correa
.230
.352
.378
.250
.354
.417
0.2
-0.5
4.23
5.57
Jeurys Familia
.281
.388
.456
.239
.329
.394
0.2
-0.5
4.01
5.57
Gerson Moreno
.229
.383
.396
.218
.333
.361
0.4
-0.8
4.02
5.76
Gerardo Reyes
.250
.357
.429
.224
.336
.367
0.4
-0.6
3.86
5.73
Shohei Tomioka
.247
.362
.443
.276
.364
.419
0.2
-0.7
4.47
6.02
Spencer Patton
.289
.393
.461
.232
.319
.394
0.2
-0.7
4.14
6.12
Joe Wieland
.294
.390
.510
.267
.348
.417
0.0
-0.5
4.72
6.10
Miguel Romero
.276
.366
.448
.271
.372
.427
0.0
-0.7
4.82
6.27
Garrett Williams
.225
.389
.380
.234
.387
.394
0.3
-1.1
4.59
6.79
Aaron Brown
.246
.368
.439
.261
.373
.412
0.1
-0.9
4.45
6.43
Tyler Ferguson
.268
.385
.491
.233
.340
.338
0.2
-1.0
4.42
6.03
Charles Hall
.256
.378
.439
.250
.362
.409
0.0
-0.8
4.48
6.13
Tyler Baum
.222
.380
.397
.266
.422
.469
-0.3
-0.9
5.41
7.16
Billy Sullivan
.225
.378
.393
.257
.388
.394
-0.2
-1.1
4.81
6.40
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.