For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the penultimate team is New York Yankees.
Batters
If I’ve learned anything from two decades of projection work (and people getting mad at that projection work), it’s that fans are way too optimistic about teams when everything goes great and way too pessimistic after things have gone awry.The 2022 Yankees were a good example of this. After a first half in which they went 58-23, good for a .716 winning percentage and a Pythagorean win percentage that nearly matched, ZiPS only projected the team to go 45-36 the rest of the way. “Knave!” they shouted at me on Twitter. “Vagabond! Miscreant!” OK, maybe they didn’t use those words exactly, but there was bewilderment and more than a touch of anger that I would disrespect the Bronx Bombers so. In the end, the Yankees actually were four wins worse than that projection in the second half.
And just like things are never as amazing as they seem when everything goes your way, the reverse is true, with the Yankees again being a good example. They had their worst season since 1992 in 2023, and based on how they’ve been talked about over the last six months or so, you’d think they were a glorified Triple-A team. But the Yankees weren’t that bad — they went 82-80 in a division without a true doormat team to beat up on. That record was all of seven wins below their preseason projection, a miss that barely merits raising an eyebrow, and certainly doesn’t justify floating Brian Cashman out to sea (or bunting more).
There were more humdrum reasons for the Yankees’ failures than an overabundance of analytics. Their most valuable player missed a third of the season. Their big pitching signing missed more than half the season and was awful when he was healthy. The dude who led the rotation in ERA in 2022 missed most of the year. A couple guys in the decline phase of their careers took big steps back. Those misfortunes can happen to any team, and they happened to to the Yankees in 2023.
There are some serious long-term concerns and they could have done more, but they’ve done an admirable job patching things up for 2024. Bounce-back seasons from Anthony Rizzo and especially Giancarlo Stanton aren’t exactly a given, so the Yankees rented the best hitter anyone can reasonably obtain in Juan Soto. Given the trajectories of Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón, they went after Yoshinobu Yamamoto (and failed), but were able to sign Marcus Stroman. Harrison Bader didn’t work out in 2023, so the team’s trying again with Alex Verdugo.
As it stands now, first base and designated hitter are the weakest positions on the depth chart, meaning the Yankees have fulfilled one of their unstated goals: protecting against the potential toastitude of Rizzo and Stanton by making sure the success of the lineup isn’t reliant on them returning to form. I’m bearish on their futures, but their production now matters a good deal less to the 2024 Yankees than it did to the Yankees of the last few years. Soto is a beast, as is Aaron Judge when he’s healthy, and while Gleyber Torres isn’t quite the player he looked like he’d be after his first couple of seasons, he’s still solidly above-average overall and isn’t being depended on to play a position (shortstop) where he’s overmatched.
There are still a few other question marks in the lineup. Verdugo’s projection takes a hit compared to where it was in the Red Sox rundown by virtue of ZiPS thinking his medium-power, line-drive bat was more ideally suited to Fenway, but he’s still a legitimate starter in left. Catcher only projects as average because of the uncertainty surrounding Austin Wells‘ defense; if he plays better defense or Jose Trevino gets more playing time than our depth chart currently anticipate, there’s a lot of room for the projected WAR to go up.
Depth at the power positions is an issue and so is the fact that a lot of the team’s offense is tied up in two players, making the Yankees susceptible to injury. But there’s at least depth in the infield with Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera hanging around.
Pitchers
Gerrit Cole always goes into the season as a Cy Young contender and there’s no reason to feel differently this year, other than the slight fear you should have with any pitcher. ZiPS projects a better year from Rodón, but given his injury history, I’m more inclined to believe the 114 innings ZiPS is projecting than the more bountiful number in our depth chart. Stroman is solid, but the raw numbers may not be as exciting without Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner behind him. ZiPS remains hopeful about Cortes, and while the computer isn’t super into Clarke Schmidt, that’s a perfectly serviceable projection for a fourth or fifth starter.
Who the Yankees turn to if injuries hit is a concern. Clayton Beeter is next on our depth chart and ZiPS is not at all enthused by the possibility of him being the de facto sixth starter. It likes Chase Hampton a lot, but I doubt the team will be that aggressive promoting him in 2024, and the computer only likes Will Warren incrementally more than Beeter. If ZiPS is correct, the Yankees better pray that they don’t end up with that many innings from Luke Weaver. While they have missed out on some of the starters they’ve gone after, they could certainly make another low-key addition or two. When running sims for 2024, everything blew up pretty quickly in the ones where the projected starters got a lot fewer innings than expected, giving the rotation a fairly low floor for a team with a good overall projection.
The bullpen pales in comparison to many of the team’s bullpens over the last decade, when New York regularly ranked at or near the top of the league. And getting Soto involved giving up a couple live arms who might have fattened up the ‘pen. ZiPS likes the front five guys (Holmes, Loáisiga, Kahnle, Hamilton, Effross), but its mathematical faith dissipates when you get to the third-tier relievers. Perhaps Luis Gil can help here (or in the rotation), but you don’t want to put too many eggs in the basket of a pitcher with 33 innings in the majors who is coming off Tommy John surgery.
If you add up the numbers on the Yankees’ depth chart — ignoring the fact that you explicitly waive any rights to restitution should you be karate-chopped upon doing so — you’ll get a win total in the low 90s. However, the simulations are coming up a bit short of that largely because, outside of the infield, ZiPS believes that New York’s depth is thinner than most of the other good teams. Right now, ZiPS is banking between 86-90 wins, which wouldn’t be that bad considering the challenges the team has had to fix on the fly this winter. However, that would probably be a huge disappointment to Yankees fans and might speed up the calls for the post-Cashman era to start.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Juan Soto
L
25
LF
660
523
101
144
25
1
33
103
131
108
11
4
Aaron Judge
R
32
RF
552
461
89
125
20
0
40
101
84
149
5
1
Gleyber Torres
R
27
2B
629
560
79
152
28
1
24
79
60
108
11
5
Trent Grisham
L
27
CF
537
461
68
101
25
2
19
61
64
138
13
3
Anthony Volpe
R
23
SS
598
532
71
119
31
4
19
74
52
152
23
5
DJ LeMahieu
R
35
3B
536
476
61
122
19
2
11
51
54
98
3
2
Oswald Peraza
R
24
SS
506
463
61
113
19
2
15
62
33
117
18
6
Jorbit Vivas
L
23
2B
590
522
75
129
22
4
9
63
44
81
10
3
Alex Verdugo
L
28
RF
591
537
80
144
32
2
15
61
45
92
4
2
Jose Trevino
R
31
C
277
261
26
62
12
1
6
31
12
46
1
1
Jared Serna
R
22
2B
544
507
72
119
22
2
14
63
31
115
13
5
Jasson Domínguez
B
21
CF
591
528
80
122
21
4
16
66
58
167
23
6
Austin Wells
L
24
C
475
426
51
97
21
1
17
63
40
125
5
1
Agustin Ramirez
R
22
C
471
429
57
101
21
0
14
54
36
102
6
2
Caleb Durbin
R
24
2B
351
315
46
79
16
2
4
38
22
35
18
5
Anthony Rizzo
L
34
1B
458
398
52
93
17
1
18
56
41
93
2
3
Brandon Lockridge
R
27
CF
374
341
42
79
14
2
7
40
24
107
19
3
Bubba Thompson
R
26
CF
448
414
60
97
17
4
9
52
24
126
26
6
Oswaldo Cabrera
B
25
LF
438
399
50
93
20
1
13
52
32
107
10
3
Jesus Rodriguez
R
22
3B
446
407
49
98
16
3
7
47
31
84
9
3
Giancarlo Stanton
R
34
RF
455
402
48
92
15
0
25
69
48
133
0
1
Ben Rortvedt
L
26
C
234
209
25
43
8
0
7
27
20
66
1
1
Franchy Cordero
L
29
RF
418
374
52
88
21
1
14
54
39
123
6
1
Edinson Duran
R
21
C
123
111
16
26
4
1
3
16
6
26
1
1
Aaron Palensky
R
25
LF
372
325
48
68
17
3
13
51
35
114
9
2
Eduardo Torrealba
R
25
3B
292
265
30
60
7
1
2
23
17
53
6
2
Carlos Narvaez
R
25
C
379
332
39
66
12
0
9
39
38
118
3
1
Ben Rice
L
25
C
309
272
39
65
12
1
12
45
27
70
4
1
Luis González
L
28
RF
316
281
35
64
11
1
7
35
28
73
9
3
Christopher Familia
L
24
LF
276
252
38
60
11
1
12
41
17
69
1
1
Benjamin Cowles
R
24
2B
425
382
42
77
15
2
7
44
33
146
9
3
Everson Pereira
R
23
LF
443
405
54
89
16
3
15
57
31
147
10
3
Elijah Dunham
L
26
LF
501
451
57
97
23
2
12
55
42
145
19
5
Tyler Hardman
R
25
3B
365
332
42
67
10
2
17
51
26
136
5
2
Matt Pita
R
27
2B
144
131
18
28
7
0
5
19
8
42
3
2
Spencer Jones
L
23
CF
526
489
56
105
21
3
13
59
32
174
22
7
Michael Hermosillo
R
29
RF
236
209
28
45
8
1
8
34
15
69
5
2
Oscar Gonzalez
R
26
RF
538
513
57
128
25
2
18
75
19
124
1
1
Jeter Downs
R
25
SS
352
310
42
61
12
1
9
38
33
110
11
3
Grant Richardson
L
24
RF
356
324
40
64
10
2
13
45
24
136
9
2
Max Burt
R
27
2B
357
329
43
68
13
1
8
38
21
113
10
2
T.J. Rumfield
L
24
1B
336
300
34
65
13
0
9
38
27
80
4
2
Wilmer Difo
B
32
SS
330
298
35
66
10
1
4
30
27
74
9
4
Nelson Medina
R
23
CF
239
220
23
43
7
3
5
25
17
92
5
3
Jared Wegner
R
24
RF
92
87
8
18
5
0
3
12
5
32
1
1
Kyle Battle
R
26
LF
122
108
12
19
5
0
2
10
10
42
5
1
Delvin Perez
R
25
2B
356
328
40
68
9
2
4
31
22
114
14
3
Josh Breaux
R
26
C
319
301
30
63
12
0
12
40
16
94
1
1
Anthony Seigler
B
25
C
307
261
34
50
12
0
4
24
41
74
4
3
Chad Bell
L
27
1B
352
322
32
62
9
1
11
38
28
144
1
1
Spencer Henson
R
26
1B
332
302
37
60
13
0
10
41
20
109
1
1
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Juan Soto
660
.275
.421
.516
160
.241
.291
-3
5.5
.399
118
Aaron Judge
552
.271
.384
.575
162
.304
.313
6
5.5
.399
103
Gleyber Torres
629
.271
.342
.454
119
.182
.299
-2
3.4
.343
91
Trent Grisham
537
.219
.321
.406
101
.187
.270
7
2.7
.318
64
Anthony Volpe
598
.224
.302
.404
94
.180
.277
2
2.4
.307
72
DJ LeMahieu
536
.256
.334
.374
97
.118
.302
8
2.4
.313
61
Oswald Peraza
506
.244
.306
.391
93
.147
.296
3
2.0
.305
62
Jorbit Vivas
590
.247
.327
.356
91
.109
.278
3
1.9
.304
64
Alex Verdugo
591
.268
.327
.419
106
.151
.300
3
1.6
.322
75
Jose Trevino
277
.238
.272
.360
74
.123
.268
10
1.3
.274
26
Jared Serna
544
.235
.285
.369
80
.134
.278
7
1.2
.285
58
Jasson Domínguez
591
.231
.308
.377
90
.146
.307
-2
1.2
.300
68
Austin Wells
475
.228
.301
.401
93
.174
.282
-6
1.2
.305
53
Agustin Ramirez
471
.235
.297
.382
88
.147
.278
-3
1.1
.296
51
Caleb Durbin
351
.251
.322
.352
88
.102
.272
1
1.0
.300
41
Anthony Rizzo
458
.234
.330
.417
106
.183
.261
1
1.0
.325
56
Brandon Lockridge
374
.232
.288
.346
76
.114
.317
5
0.8
.279
39
Bubba Thompson
448
.234
.284
.360
78
.126
.315
2
0.7
.281
50
Oswaldo Cabrera
438
.233
.292
.386
87
.153
.287
6
0.7
.294
48
Jesus Rodriguez
446
.241
.303
.346
80
.106
.288
3
0.7
.286
46
Giancarlo Stanton
455
.229
.314
.453
110
.224
.275
-6
0.6
.329
58
Ben Rortvedt
234
.206
.286
.344
75
.139
.265
2
0.5
.280
21
Franchy Cordero
418
.235
.312
.409
99
.174
.312
-3
0.4
.313
49
Edinson Duran
123
.234
.301
.369
86
.135
.280
0
0.3
.295
13
Aaron Palensky
372
.209
.304
.400
94
.191
.278
-2
0.3
.307
42
Eduardo Torrealba
292
.226
.284
.283
59
.057
.276
8
0.3
.256
23
Carlos Narvaez
379
.199
.290
.316
69
.117
.278
0
0.3
.272
31
Ben Rice
309
.239
.324
.423
106
.184
.279
-14
0.2
.325
38
Luis González
316
.228
.304
.349
81
.121
.284
3
0.2
.289
33
Christopher Familia
276
.238
.301
.433
101
.194
.281
-3
0.2
.316
33
Benjamin Cowles
425
.202
.275
.306
62
.105
.306
6
0.1
.260
35
Everson Pereira
443
.220
.282
.385
83
.165
.305
2
0.1
.290
47
Elijah Dunham
501
.215
.289
.355
78
.140
.289
3
0.0
.284
52
Tyler Hardman
365
.202
.263
.398
80
.196
.279
-2
0.0
.283
37
Matt Pita
144
.214
.278
.382
81
.168
.274
-2
0.0
.287
15
Spencer Jones
526
.215
.266
.350
70
.135
.305
1
-0.1
.269
53
Michael Hermosillo
236
.215
.297
.378
86
.163
.280
-1
-0.1
.297
25
Oscar Gonzalez
538
.250
.279
.411
89
.162
.296
-1
-0.1
.295
59
Jeter Downs
352
.197
.284
.329
70
.132
.272
-4
-0.1
.274
32
Grant Richardson
356
.198
.267
.361
73
.164
.291
3
-0.2
.275
34
Max Burt
357
.207
.263
.325
63
.119
.288
1
-0.2
.259
31
T.J. Rumfield
336
.217
.292
.350
78
.133
.265
2
-0.2
.284
32
Wilmer Difo
330
.221
.286
.302
64
.081
.282
-2
-0.3
.263
29
Nelson Medina
239
.195
.255
.323
60
.127
.309
1
-0.4
.252
20
Jared Wegner
92
.207
.250
.368
69
.161
.288
-2
-0.4
.267
9
Kyle Battle
122
.176
.262
.278
51
.102
.266
0
-0.5
.246
9
Delvin Perez
356
.207
.267
.284
54
.076
.305
0
-0.6
.247
29
Josh Breaux
319
.209
.251
.369
70
.159
.262
-7
-0.7
.266
28
Anthony Seigler
307
.192
.303
.284
65
.092
.251
-8
-0.7
.269
24
Chad Bell
352
.193
.259
.329
62
.137
.305
4
-0.8
.258
28
Spencer Henson
332
.199
.262
.341
66
.142
.273
1
-0.9
.263
28
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Juan Soto
.301
.455
.577
181
7.1
.253
.394
.461
140
4.0
Aaron Judge
.294
.410
.650
189
7.2
.242
.356
.503
138
3.9
Gleyber Torres
.294
.365
.505
136
4.7
.245
.315
.406
99
1.8
Trent Grisham
.241
.344
.460
120
3.9
.195
.296
.356
82
1.5
Anthony Volpe
.250
.325
.466
116
3.9
.201
.277
.357
74
0.9
DJ LeMahieu
.285
.366
.414
117
3.7
.227
.308
.328
78
1.1
Oswald Peraza
.266
.328
.444
111
3.2
.219
.279
.341
74
0.8
Jorbit Vivas
.275
.355
.402
109
3.1
.222
.301
.317
73
0.5
Alex Verdugo
.294
.352
.466
126
3.2
.241
.302
.374
89
0.4
Jose Trevino
.266
.301
.415
97
2.1
.210
.245
.314
57
0.7
Jared Serna
.263
.312
.421
100
2.5
.208
.261
.323
61
-0.1
Jasson Domínguez
.254
.330
.423
106
2.4
.207
.282
.336
73
-0.1
Austin Wells
.258
.329
.458
113
2.3
.203
.274
.352
74
0.1
Agustin Ramirez
.262
.325
.434
107
2.1
.209
.268
.340
69
-0.1
Caleb Durbin
.279
.348
.392
104
1.8
.223
.297
.310
70
0.2
Anthony Rizzo
.257
.351
.462
121
1.9
.210
.308
.365
87
-0.1
Brandon Lockridge
.259
.312
.389
93
1.7
.207
.261
.304
59
0.0
Bubba Thompson
.259
.309
.403
95
1.6
.211
.258
.321
60
-0.3
Oswaldo Cabrera
.259
.317
.443
108
1.8
.210
.266
.340
69
-0.3
Jesus Rodriguez
.268
.328
.387
97
1.6
.219
.281
.313
66
-0.2
Giancarlo Stanton
.253
.337
.518
130
1.7
.203
.287
.393
89
-0.6
Ben Rortvedt
.232
.315
.396
96
1.1
.177
.255
.294
54
-0.1
Franchy Cordero
.260
.335
.461
118
1.5
.208
.286
.365
82
-0.4
Edinson Duran
.261
.326
.419
105
0.6
.208
.275
.322
66
0.0
Aaron Palensky
.232
.328
.452
113
1.2
.179
.277
.343
71
-0.6
Eduardo Torrealba
.254
.313
.319
77
0.9
.199
.258
.248
42
-0.4
Carlos Narvaez
.228
.323
.371
90
1.3
.174
.262
.271
49
-0.6
Ben Rice
.266
.350
.482
127
1.1
.218
.299
.371
88
-0.5
Luis González
.253
.331
.402
102
1.0
.203
.278
.305
62
-0.6
Christopher Familia
.264
.326
.489
122
0.9
.212
.277
.381
81
-0.5
Benjamin Cowles
.226
.299
.353
81
1.1
.179
.253
.265
46
-0.7
Everson Pereira
.244
.310
.436
103
1.1
.194
.254
.335
62
-1.1
Elijah Dunham
.244
.313
.407
97
1.2
.187
.263
.310
60
-1.2
Tyler Hardman
.227
.288
.463
105
1.0
.176
.234
.340
59
-1.0
Matt Pita
.242
.307
.442
104
0.4
.185
.250
.325
59
-0.4
Spencer Jones
.234
.290
.397
87
1.0
.190
.244
.316
54
-1.2
Michael Hermosillo
.240
.326
.438
108
0.6
.192
.271
.328
67
-0.6
Oscar Gonzalez
.274
.301
.460
108
1.2
.226
.254
.363
71
-1.3
Jeter Downs
.222
.309
.381
91
0.8
.168
.256
.274
51
-1.0
Grant Richardson
.225
.291
.413
93
0.7
.172
.241
.314
53
-1.1
Max Burt
.233
.291
.378
83
0.7
.180
.238
.280
44
-1.1
T.J. Rumfield
.246
.318
.403
98
0.6
.191
.266
.298
57
-1.1
Wilmer Difo
.249
.314
.347
83
0.5
.196
.260
.263
47
-1.0
Nelson Medina
.223
.287
.378
82
0.3
.168
.231
.272
39
-1.0
Jared Wegner
.233
.276
.416
89
-0.2
.185
.224
.323
51
-0.6
Kyle Battle
.204
.292
.318
69
-0.2
.151
.235
.231
31
-0.8
Delvin Perez
.232
.291
.322
68
0.1
.181
.239
.249
35
-1.4
Josh Breaux
.236
.284
.423
90
0.1
.184
.224
.311
48
-1.6
Anthony Seigler
.221
.335
.333
87
0.1
.163
.272
.241
48
-1.4
Chad Bell
.218
.289
.382
84
0.2
.166
.234
.280
43
-1.7
Spencer Henson
.227
.287
.387
86
-0.1
.175
.234
.294
48
-1.7
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Juan Soto
.261
.394
.467
.282
.433
.539
Aaron Judge
.274
.401
.581
.270
.378
.573
Gleyber Torres
.280
.360
.484
.268
.336
.442
Trent Grisham
.221
.319
.410
.218
.321
.404
Anthony Volpe
.234
.321
.442
.218
.290
.382
DJ LeMahieu
.263
.349
.391
.254
.328
.367
Oswald Peraza
.249
.314
.413
.241
.301
.376
Jorbit Vivas
.232
.315
.335
.256
.334
.369
Alex Verdugo
.258
.318
.381
.272
.330
.435
Jose Trevino
.244
.276
.366
.235
.270
.358
Jared Serna
.243
.297
.391
.231
.279
.358
Jasson Domínguez
.233
.305
.381
.230
.310
.375
Austin Wells
.218
.296
.366
.232
.304
.419
Agustin Ramirez
.239
.306
.394
.233
.293
.376
Caleb Durbin
.257
.328
.358
.248
.319
.350
Anthony Rizzo
.229
.325
.376
.235
.331
.433
Brandon Lockridge
.235
.292
.364
.230
.286
.335
Bubba Thompson
.237
.290
.387
.232
.279
.340
Oswaldo Cabrera
.232
.286
.387
.233
.295
.385
Jesus Rodriguez
.245
.307
.345
.239
.300
.347
Giancarlo Stanton
.235
.331
.480
.227
.309
.443
Ben Rortvedt
.197
.274
.333
.210
.292
.350
Franchy Cordero
.234
.305
.374
.236
.314
.423
Edinson Duran
.243
.300
.351
.230
.301
.378
Aaron Palensky
.213
.312
.398
.207
.300
.401
Eduardo Torrealba
.228
.287
.293
.225
.282
.277
Carlos Narvaez
.202
.299
.311
.197
.285
.319
Ben Rice
.224
.302
.365
.246
.333
.449
Luis González
.216
.293
.318
.233
.309
.363
Christopher Familia
.229
.297
.373
.243
.303
.462
Benjamin Cowles
.211
.292
.344
.197
.267
.287
Everson Pereira
.224
.287
.406
.218
.280
.374
Elijah Dunham
.207
.280
.341
.220
.295
.362
Tyler Hardman
.212
.277
.415
.196
.255
.388
Matt Pita
.212
.281
.385
.215
.276
.380
Spencer Jones
.209
.257
.328
.217
.270
.358
Michael Hermosillo
.216
.298
.378
.215
.296
.378
Oscar Gonzalez
.255
.288
.426
.246
.274
.403
Jeter Downs
.201
.296
.338
.193
.275
.322
Grant Richardson
.192
.263
.327
.200
.269
.377
Max Burt
.213
.271
.328
.203
.259
.324
T.J. Rumfield
.207
.282
.304
.221
.296
.370
Wilmer Difo
.222
.276
.289
.221
.290
.308
Nelson Medina
.203
.272
.351
.192
.247
.308
Jared Wegner
.207
.258
.379
.207
.246
.362
Kyle Battle
.175
.267
.300
.176
.260
.265
Delvin Perez
.223
.287
.306
.193
.249
.263
Josh Breaux
.216
.258
.376
.205
.246
.364
Anthony Seigler
.189
.297
.305
.193
.306
.271
Chad Bell
.181
.238
.298
.197
.267
.342
Spencer Henson
.204
.269
.337
.196
.259
.343
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Gerrit Cole
186.3
9.7
2.4
1.3
6.6%
26.4%
.278
119
3.78
84
3.8
Marcus Stroman
138.0
7.2
2.9
1.1
7.5%
18.8%
.283
104
4.31
96
2.1
Carlos Rodón
114.3
10.4
2.8
1.2
7.4%
27.9%
.279
109
3.70
92
1.9
Nestor Cortes
102.7
8.7
2.5
1.2
6.7%
23.5%
.276
109
3.98
92
1.7
Clarke Schmidt
130.7
8.9
2.9
1.3
7.5%
23.2%
.296
95
4.32
105
1.5
Domingo Germán
98.0
9.2
2.4
1.4
6.5%
24.9%
.275
102
4.12
98
1.3
Luis Gil
92.3
11.1
5.0
1.3
12.6%
28.2%
.283
98
4.37
102
1.2
Will Warren
118.7
7.8
3.5
1.2
9.0%
20.2%
.287
93
4.59
108
1.1
Chase Hampton
104.0
8.4
3.2
1.5
8.2%
21.5%
.285
92
4.58
109
1.0
Sean Boyle
86.3
7.4
2.4
1.3
6.3%
19.5%
.286
92
4.56
109
0.8
Clayton Beeter
107.0
9.1
4.5
1.3
11.2%
22.7%
.282
88
4.86
114
0.8
Tanner Tully
98.3
5.8
2.4
1.3
6.2%
14.9%
.293
88
4.74
113
0.7
Clay Holmes
61.0
9.9
3.5
1.0
9.3%
26.1%
.273
110
3.98
91
0.6
Jonathan Loáisiga
51.3
8.1
2.3
1.1
6.1%
21.7%
.278
114
3.92
87
0.6
Edgar Barclay
71.3
9.0
3.9
1.3
10.0%
23.0%
.285
90
4.64
111
0.5
Yoendrys Gómez
74.3
8.5
4.6
1.3
11.6%
21.3%
.282
87
4.99
115
0.5
Matt Krook
82.0
9.8
5.6
1.2
13.8%
24.1%
.286
87
4.84
115
0.4
Cody Poteet
66.3
8.4
3.7
1.5
9.4%
21.7%
.279
89
4.90
113
0.4
Cody Morris
53.7
9.9
4.4
1.3
11.0%
24.9%
.293
93
4.56
108
0.4
Ian Hamilton
54.3
10.9
4.5
1.2
11.4%
27.8%
.288
102
4.10
98
0.4
Ryan Weber
61.7
5.5
1.6
1.5
4.2%
14.5%
.297
87
4.81
114
0.4
Tommy Kahnle
43.3
10.8
3.7
1.5
9.8%
28.3%
.272
101
4.34
99
0.3
Scott Effross
45.0
8.4
2.2
1.2
5.9%
22.7%
.286
105
3.99
95
0.3
Keynan Middleton
46.3
10.7
3.3
1.4
8.8%
28.5%
.283
108
4.01
92
0.3
Jack Neely
58.3
10.0
3.5
1.2
9.1%
25.8%
.284
101
4.15
99
0.3
Josh Maciejewski
56.0
7.2
3.4
1.4
8.5%
18.3%
.287
87
5.02
115
0.2
Anthony Misiewicz
48.0
8.8
3.0
1.5
7.8%
22.8%
.293
94
4.53
107
0.2
Nick Ramirez
53.0
8.0
2.9
1.4
7.5%
20.7%
.299
95
4.46
105
0.1
Wandy Peralta
51.0
8.6
4.1
1.2
10.6%
22.5%
.270
95
4.65
105
0.1
Luke Weaver
101.3
8.1
3.4
1.6
8.5%
20.4%
.306
79
4.98
127
0.1
Jimmy Cordero
41.7
10.6
3.2
1.3
8.6%
28.0%
.284
97
4.22
103
0.1
Michael Feliz
37.0
9.0
3.2
1.5
8.3%
23.7%
.283
96
4.58
104
0.1
Victor González
49.7
8.9
4.0
1.3
10.2%
22.7%
.281
93
4.68
108
0.1
Blane Abeyta
100.0
6.6
4.2
1.4
10.5%
16.3%
.287
78
5.62
128
0.0
Dennis Santana
52.3
9.1
4.3
1.4
10.9%
23.0%
.286
87
4.82
114
0.0
Albert Abreu
56.3
9.6
5.0
1.3
12.4%
24.0%
.281
91
4.89
110
0.0
Kervin Castro
46.7
9.1
4.6
1.4
11.6%
22.7%
.286
91
4.86
110
0.0
Barrett Loseke
44.0
8.8
4.5
1.4
11.2%
21.9%
.289
89
4.94
112
0.0
Zach Greene
40.7
9.1
4.6
1.3
11.8%
23.0%
.284
86
4.93
116
0.0
Gray Fenter
48.0
8.1
5.8
1.5
13.7%
19.0%
.285
77
5.69
129
-0.1
Yerry De Los Santos
48.3
7.6
3.4
1.3
8.8%
20.1%
.275
90
4.81
111
-0.1
James Norwood
34.7
10.4
4.7
1.3
11.6%
25.8%
.303
90
4.38
111
-0.1
Ron Marinaccio
59.7
9.5
5.0
1.2
12.7%
24.2%
.268
90
4.90
111
-0.1
Michael Giacone
27.7
9.1
4.6
1.3
11.4%
22.8%
.293
86
4.63
116
-0.1
Zach McAllister
45.0
9.6
3.8
1.6
9.7%
24.5%
.294
84
5.03
119
-0.1
Aaron McGarity
58.3
7.7
2.8
1.4
7.3%
20.2%
.284
88
4.83
114
-0.1
Indigo Diaz
38.3
9.9
5.2
1.4
12.6%
24.1%
.283
85
4.98
117
-0.1
Danny Watson
58.0
8.7
3.7
1.4
9.6%
22.5%
.274
88
5.00
114
-0.2
Duane Underwood Jr.
51.7
7.5
3.5
1.4
8.8%
18.9%
.294
83
4.94
120
-0.2
Oddanier Mosqueda
57.3
8.9
4.6
1.3
11.6%
22.8%
.279
84
4.96
119
-0.2
Derek Craft
28.3
8.9
4.8
1.6
11.7%
21.9%
.286
83
5.27
121
-0.2
Nick Burdi
20.7
12.2
6.1
1.7
14.4%
28.9%
.313
74
5.67
134
-0.3
Matt Minnick
35.7
7.6
4.5
1.5
11.3%
18.9%
.282
79
5.53
126
-0.3
Bailey Dees
53.3
8.1
4.4
1.4
11.1%
20.4%
.280
83
5.15
120
-0.3
Alex Mauricio
40.7
6.9
4.2
1.3
10.3%
16.8%
.290
79
5.20
126
-0.3
Ryan Anderson
46.3
7.4
4.3
1.4
10.4%
18.0%
.285
77
5.46
129
-0.4
Justin Maese
37.3
8.0
5.1
1.4
12.1%
19.1%
.290
76
5.51
132
-0.4
Lisandro Santos
47.0
8.8
6.5
1.3
15.4%
20.8%
.287
76
5.53
132
-0.4
Tanner Myatt
47.7
9.1
6.2
1.3
14.9%
21.6%
.281
80
5.35
126
-0.4
Carlos Gomez
52.7
8.0
5.8
1.4
13.9%
19.2%
.287
75
5.67
134
-0.7
D.J. Snelten
30.7
9.7
9.7
1.8
20.8%
20.8%
.288
60
7.17
167
-0.9
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Gerrit Cole
.221
.284
.393
.229
.274
.384
4.9
2.6
3.01
4.06
Marcus Stroman
.251
.314
.406
.244
.300
.402
2.8
1.1
3.60
4.66
Carlos Rodón
.206
.264
.320
.222
.289
.393
2.8
0.8
3.21
4.85
Nestor Cortes
.240
.295
.427
.230
.281
.385
2.4
0.8
3.23
4.63
Clarke Schmidt
.263
.328
.458
.234
.299
.388
2.4
0.5
3.84
5.05
Domingo Germán
.234
.289
.415
.227
.282
.400
2.0
0.6
3.52
4.85
Luis Gil
.224
.330
.391
.211
.313
.368
2.0
0.2
3.63
5.12
Will Warren
.261
.345
.459
.235
.299
.366
1.9
0.2
4.00
5.19
Chase Hampton
.262
.330
.445
.234
.288
.421
1.8
0.2
3.91
5.26
Sean Boyle
.272
.348
.449
.233
.286
.394
1.4
0.1
3.98
5.34
Clayton Beeter
.249
.349
.437
.224
.314
.388
1.5
-0.2
4.25
5.60
Tanner Tully
.256
.309
.408
.279
.326
.461
1.2
0.1
4.35
5.37
Clay Holmes
.237
.336
.412
.198
.274
.321
1.2
-0.3
3.09
5.18
Jonathan Loáisiga
.250
.313
.398
.222
.274
.370
1.0
0.0
3.09
4.60
Edgar Barclay
.203
.312
.316
.251
.332
.436
1.1
-0.3
4.00
5.59
Yoendrys Gómez
.246
.341
.415
.234
.329
.407
1.0
-0.1
4.33
5.52
Matt Krook
.181
.310
.245
.251
.358
.452
1.2
-0.6
4.08
5.84
Cody Poteet
.246
.319
.460
.238
.320
.400
0.9
-0.1
4.22
5.51
Cody Morris
.255
.354
.480
.220
.301
.349
0.9
-0.1
3.86
5.20
Ian Hamilton
.211
.318
.358
.227
.312
.391
0.9
-0.3
3.38
5.12
Ryan Weber
.283
.331
.483
.277
.301
.446
0.7
-0.1
4.32
5.50
Tommy Kahnle
.224
.306
.382
.209
.296
.419
0.9
-0.3
3.13
5.54
Scott Effross
.247
.310
.403
.237
.279
.402
0.7
-0.2
3.27
5.02
Keynan Middleton
.234
.314
.416
.214
.278
.388
0.8
-0.2
3.05
4.71
Jack Neely
.250
.336
.385
.205
.277
.393
0.8
-0.3
3.43
4.97
Josh Maciejewski
.232
.308
.348
.270
.337
.487
0.6
-0.2
4.22
5.58
Anthony Misiewicz
.229
.280
.386
.263
.328
.466
0.7
-0.2
3.62
5.38
Nick Ramirez
.254
.320
.373
.261
.312
.465
0.7
-0.3
3.56
5.29
Wandy Peralta
.208
.305
.361
.240
.326
.413
0.7
-0.5
3.69
5.43
Luke Weaver
.278
.353
.479
.259
.315
.458
0.9
-0.6
4.66
6.05
Jimmy Cordero
.233
.333
.425
.214
.287
.369
0.6
-0.5
3.35
5.80
Michael Feliz
.246
.329
.477
.234
.294
.390
0.4
-0.3
3.65
5.33
Victor González
.206
.299
.338
.252
.340
.439
0.5
-0.3
3.84
5.25
Blane Abeyta
.281
.377
.444
.248
.336
.454
0.4
-0.7
5.05
5.96
Dennis Santana
.241
.340
.448
.237
.323
.395
0.4
-0.5
4.21
5.68
Albert Abreu
.213
.336
.394
.242
.338
.400
0.4
-0.6
3.96
5.46
Kervin Castro
.256
.347
.430
.223
.321
.404
0.4
-0.4
4.02
5.38
Barrett Loseke
.256
.356
.423
.237
.314
.441
0.3
-0.5
4.12
5.67
Zach Greene
.253
.349
.387
.222
.326
.444
0.3
-0.5
4.21
5.81
Gray Fenter
.259
.382
.447
.243
.342
.437
0.4
-0.5
4.79
6.43
Yerry De Los Santos
.238
.333
.417
.245
.310
.412
0.3
-0.5
4.01
5.44
James Norwood
.246
.352
.426
.233
.305
.411
0.3
-0.5
3.77
5.83
Ron Marinaccio
.220
.338
.394
.217
.331
.365
0.5
-0.8
4.02
5.66
Michael Giacone
.250
.351
.406
.240
.318
.427
0.1
-0.3
4.25
5.66
Zach McAllister
.247
.333
.447
.244
.337
.444
0.3
-0.7
4.09
6.56
Aaron McGarity
.266
.341
.459
.235
.303
.403
0.4
-0.6
4.09
5.48
Indigo Diaz
.232
.346
.435
.231
.330
.397
0.2
-0.6
4.22
5.83
Danny Watson
.227
.317
.400
.241
.338
.429
0.3
-0.7
4.15
5.64
Duane Underwood Jr.
.269
.343
.462
.252
.323
.423
0.2
-0.6
4.35
6.10
Oddanier Mosqueda
.195
.315
.312
.254
.352
.444
0.3
-0.8
4.34
6.04
Derek Craft
.260
.351
.480
.233
.329
.433
0.0
-0.4
4.51
6.02
Nick Burdi
.231
.388
.436
.244
.360
.439
0.0
-0.6
4.83
7.39
Matt Minnick
.256
.360
.419
.250
.342
.458
0.0
-0.6
4.67
6.18
Bailey Dees
.238
.350
.386
.248
.328
.448
0.1
-0.7
4.43
5.66
Alex Mauricio
.267
.375
.440
.256
.316
.442
-0.1
-0.7
4.71
6.04
Ryan Anderson
.208
.311
.358
.271
.371
.465
0.0
-0.7
4.84
6.13
Justin Maese
.275
.383
.493
.234
.333
.403
-0.1
-0.7
4.92
6.50
Lisandro Santos
.246
.377
.421
.240
.360
.416
0.0
-0.9
4.84
6.57
Tanner Myatt
.247
.390
.432
.225
.328
.392
0.0
-0.9
4.59
6.27
Carlos Gomez
.280
.382
.516
.223
.353
.357
-0.3
-1.1
5.08
6.39
D.J. Snelten
.231
.400
.359
.250
.425
.513
-0.5
-1.5
5.87
9.54
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.