For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Minnesota Twins.
Batters
This set of batters probably looks familiar because, well, apart from the Luis Arraez trade to the Marlins, this is pretty much the same collection of hitters the Twins have had available the last several years. Edouard Julien isn’t the exact same type of player as Arraez, but he more or less fulfills Arraez’s role of “interesting offensive talent who the Twins can play at second base, but would prefer not to.”
Can Byron Buxton stay healthy? Just sticking him at DH isn’t a satisfactory answer — one of the reasons a healthy Buxton is so valuable is because he has played a transcendent center field when he’s been able to. Playing DH, he’s basically just Jorge Soler, which has value, but not that star-level sizzle.
On the good side, Alex Kirilloff showed a pulse for the first time since his 2021 wrist injury, though ZiPS is taking a conservative road with him (Steamer is more positive). The questions about what kind of player Royce Lewis actually is were answered in a very positive manner in 2023, though it remains to be seen just how healthy he’ll be. And Max Kepler’s power returned last season, though his glove dropped off a bit, cancelling out some of those gains. ZiPS does like Emmanuel Rodriguez quite a bit in the long-term, but not so much in 2024.
There’s no real problem in the ZiPS projections when you look at the team’s starters. If ZiPS is correct, the weak spots (left field, first base, DH) are just bland rather than disastrous. Where it gets a little dicey is when you look past the starters. ZiPS does not think Minnesota has a lot in the way of offensive reinforcements should injuries or a rash of disappointments hit the offense, as happened in 2021 and 2022. Outside of Carlos Correa’s frustrating down season, not a lot actually went wrong for the Twins last year, and they even made another team a smoking crater in the playoffs for once.
Pitchers
Considering that the Twins lost the AL Cy Young runner-up (Sonny Gray) this offseason, the projections in the rotation aren’t bad. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober all get above-average projections, and Louie Varland isn’t far behind. Chris Paddack only returned very briefly at the end of the season from Tommy John surgery, but ZiPS liked him before his elbow injury, so having him as the likely fifth starter isn’t a bad situation to be in. Even skipping over ZiPS’ surprising faith in the low-upside Pierson Ohl, David Festa projects as a worthy replacement candidate when one is needed; Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick also project as mostly usable. ZiPS may not like the offense’s depth, but it’s definitely more positive about the rotation’s.
The bullpen projects as above average, but it’s rather top-heavy in the distribution of performance. Both Jhoan Duran and Brock Stewart get elite projections, and Griffin Jax projects with a 3.79 ERA when forecast only as a reliever; Caleb Thielbar is right there as well. But after that, with the exception of Kody Funderburk — whose name I get wrong in a different way every time I say it — there’s a big drop-off to the rest of the ‘pen. Since it doesn’t look like the Twins plan to do much financially, it might at least pay off for them to get a few third-tier bullpen arms on the cheap to fatten up the relief corps a bit.
Overall, the Twins project somewhere between 85 and 90 wins, depending on how much of the roster is healthy. That may be enough in the AL Central, though ZiPS does like the Guardians quite a bit. With Cleveland possibly being better and the Tigers having some upside, the Twins may have a rougher fight to get into the postseason than 2023’s largely amiable stroll.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Carlos Correa
588
.262
.338
.443
117
.180
.307
4
3.8
.337
79
Royce Lewis
439
.268
.330
.471
121
.203
.320
4
3.0
.344
66
Edouard Julien
560
.241
.360
.395
112
.154
.348
-1
2.8
.335
69
Byron Buxton
364
.242
.310
.508
124
.266
.293
6
2.8
.344
54
Jorge Polanco
491
.255
.331
.444
115
.189
.301
-3
2.2
.334
66
Max Kepler
491
.238
.320
.448
112
.210
.264
6
2.1
.330
63
Andrew Stevenson
489
.262
.322
.403
102
.141
.340
1
2.1
.316
64
Ryan Jeffers
349
.234
.317
.422
105
.188
.294
2
1.9
.322
42
Matt Wallner
541
.234
.336
.427
112
.193
.341
1
1.8
.332
68
Jose Miranda
492
.272
.325
.413
105
.141
.306
-2
1.6
.321
62
Joey Gallo
433
.190
.316
.426
106
.236
.263
7
1.6
.322
50
Michael A. Taylor
408
.226
.286
.380
85
.154
.303
8
1.4
.290
43
Brooks Lee
547
.245
.300
.378
89
.133
.290
0
1.3
.295
59
Kyle Farmer
432
.244
.302
.372
88
.127
.294
6
1.2
.295
46
Yunior Severino
492
.221
.289
.391
88
.170
.325
5
1.2
.296
52
Christian Vázquez
373
.241
.293
.340
77
.099
.294
6
1.1
.278
36
Emmanuel Rodriguez
439
.193
.317
.353
88
.160
.299
0
1.0
.300
45
DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
484
.231
.287
.348
77
.117
.318
5
0.9
.279
50
Jordan Luplow
317
.220
.312
.412
101
.191
.259
3
0.9
.314
37
Anthony Prato
462
.228
.326
.346
89
.118
.317
-3
0.8
.302
49
Noah Cardenas
386
.207
.311
.306
75
.099
.279
2
0.8
.282
34
Andrew Cossetti
399
.165
.278
.341
73
.176
.199
4
0.8
.275
33
Willi Castro
446
.247
.306
.385
93
.138
.311
3
0.7
.301
53
Donovan Solano
367
.267
.335
.371
98
.103
.342
4
0.7
.312
41
Jair Camargo
359
.218
.265
.376
77
.158
.326
2
0.6
.277
34
Michael Helman
412
.233
.291
.378
86
.146
.280
-4
0.6
.292
45
Niko Goodrum
321
.217
.321
.344
87
.127
.303
5
0.5
.297
33
Alex Kirilloff
383
.249
.319
.406
101
.157
.302
0
0.5
.315
45
Nick Gordon
323
.258
.302
.419
100
.161
.312
-5
0.5
.310
40
Ernie Yake
186
.232
.301
.333
78
.101
.282
3
0.4
.282
18
Trevor Larnach
468
.227
.318
.384
96
.158
.324
-2
0.3
.308
50
Hernan Perez
286
.239
.290
.360
81
.121
.310
-2
0.2
.283
30
Austin Martin
364
.231
.333
.311
83
.080
.290
-5
0.2
.295
37
Ryan LaMarre
225
.220
.307
.340
81
.120
.317
2
0.2
.290
24
Noah Miller
535
.207
.279
.293
61
.085
.284
5
0.1
.257
42
Tanner Schobel
534
.232
.300
.342
80
.110
.295
-4
0.1
.284
51
Mark Kolozsvary
188
.180
.267
.299
59
.120
.283
2
0.0
.257
14
David Bañuelos
191
.190
.249
.328
60
.138
.311
1
-0.1
.253
15
Kyle Garlick
333
.211
.282
.381
84
.171
.306
2
-0.1
.289
33
Alerick Soularie
301
.202
.289
.315
70
.112
.294
3
-0.2
.272
28
Elliot Soto
270
.202
.270
.276
54
.074
.304
1
-0.3
.247
20
Chris Williams
392
.201
.288
.370
83
.169
.306
1
-0.3
.288
37
Ben Ross
487
.210
.273
.357
75
.147
.287
-2
-0.3
.275
45
Tony Wolters
247
.207
.300
.276
64
.069
.289
-3
-0.3
.265
18
Seth Gray
430
.194
.274
.295
60
.101
.315
3
-0.4
.257
34
Yoyner Fajardo
467
.238
.294
.322
73
.084
.298
4
-0.4
.274
49
Will Holland
373
.189
.269
.290
57
.102
.296
2
-0.4
.252
31
Kyle Schmidt
192
.211
.281
.291
61
.080
.292
-4
-0.5
.259
15
Dalton Shuffield
249
.208
.277
.319
67
.111
.307
0
-0.5
.265
22
Patrick Winkel
327
.217
.287
.325
72
.108
.307
-8
-0.5
.273
28
Alex Isola
435
.225
.292
.357
81
.132
.285
0
-0.6
.285
42
Carson McCusker
200
.190
.235
.376
67
.185
.313
0
-0.6
.262
17
Kyler Fedko
322
.223
.311
.332
81
.110
.293
-6
-0.7
.288
31
Armani Smith
314
.209
.274
.303
62
.094
.306
1
-0.9
.258
25
Kala’i Rosario
529
.204
.282
.356
77
.152
.318
-3
-0.9
.280
48
Aaron Sabato
398
.177
.271
.320
65
.143
.276
2
-1.0
.265
31
Willie Joe Garry Jr.
297
.178
.241
.289
48
.111
.306
-4
-1.3
.234
22
Jake Rucker
482
.214
.277
.320
67
.106
.304
-8
-1.5
.264
43
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Carlos Correa
.286
.363
.500
138
5.2
.232
.309
.393
96
2.3
Royce Lewis
.293
.359
.521
142
4.1
.241
.305
.420
103
2.0
Edouard Julien
.268
.387
.441
131
4.1
.214
.335
.354
96
1.7
Byron Buxton
.266
.331
.585
148
3.8
.215
.285
.443
102
1.8
Jorge Polanco
.279
.355
.505
135
3.4
.226
.302
.391
94
1.1
Max Kepler
.265
.345
.508
135
3.3
.210
.296
.385
92
0.9
Andrew Stevenson
.289
.347
.450
120
3.2
.234
.295
.358
84
1.0
Ryan Jeffers
.261
.345
.480
124
2.7
.205
.289
.359
80
0.8
Matt Wallner
.258
.361
.485
133
3.1
.205
.315
.377
94
0.6
Jose Miranda
.298
.352
.461
123
2.7
.247
.300
.374
89
0.6
Joey Gallo
.214
.343
.495
130
2.8
.165
.291
.351
84
0.5
Michael A. Taylor
.256
.311
.434
106
2.4
.198
.253
.324
62
0.2
Brooks Lee
.273
.329
.430
110
2.7
.216
.273
.324
67
-0.2
Kyle Farmer
.271
.329
.413
105
2.1
.216
.276
.326
69
0.2
Yunior Severino
.250
.318
.449
110
2.5
.194
.263
.345
69
0.1
Christian Vázquez
.271
.323
.386
99
2.1
.213
.267
.299
60
0.2
Emmanuel Rodriguez
.221
.348
.413
110
2.1
.169
.290
.294
68
-0.1
DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
.256
.313
.386
92
1.9
.207
.261
.309
59
-0.2
Jordan Luplow
.242
.340
.473
123
1.7
.188
.284
.359
78
0.0
Anthony Prato
.252
.352
.386
106
1.8
.202
.302
.299
70
-0.2
Noah Cardenas
.233
.344
.361
95
1.7
.178
.283
.266
57
-0.2
Andrew Cossetti
.192
.301
.404
97
1.9
.143
.252
.289
55
-0.1
Willi Castro
.274
.330
.433
110
1.8
.224
.280
.345
78
-0.2
Donovan Solano
.297
.363
.412
116
1.5
.236
.305
.327
80
-0.2
Jair Camargo
.242
.291
.427
97
1.5
.187
.233
.320
55
-0.4
Michael Helman
.257
.318
.437
108
1.7
.204
.264
.330
68
-0.3
Niko Goodrum
.242
.348
.386
105
1.2
.191
.285
.297
67
-0.4
Alex Kirilloff
.275
.344
.455
120
1.4
.222
.292
.358
83
-0.3
Nick Gordon
.287
.333
.475
121
1.3
.234
.277
.368
79
-0.3
Ernie Yake
.264
.334
.396
103
1.0
.203
.272
.288
58
-0.1
Trevor Larnach
.251
.339
.437
114
1.4
.197
.290
.337
77
-0.8
Hernan Perez
.266
.318
.408
102
0.9
.213
.266
.311
63
-0.4
Austin Martin
.254
.359
.347
97
0.9
.205
.306
.273
66
-0.6
Ryan LaMarre
.250
.332
.389
103
0.8
.191
.278
.286
61
-0.4
Noah Miller
.236
.308
.338
79
1.3
.182
.253
.258
44
-1.1
Tanner Schobel
.260
.324
.384
96
1.2
.209
.277
.300
61
-1.1
Mark Kolozsvary
.213
.299
.357
82
0.6
.152
.234
.246
37
-0.5
David Bañuelos
.216
.281
.380
82
0.4
.159
.217
.271
39
-0.6
Kyle Garlick
.239
.310
.438
107
0.8
.183
.253
.329
64
-1.0
Alerick Soularie
.231
.319
.364
90
0.6
.175
.262
.276
53
-0.8
Elliot Soto
.231
.299
.321
74
0.5
.174
.242
.236
36
-0.9
Chris Williams
.230
.318
.428
105
0.7
.171
.261
.317
62
-1.3
Ben Ross
.237
.299
.402
93
0.8
.182
.248
.315
58
-1.3
Tony Wolters
.241
.328
.319
82
0.3
.180
.265
.238
45
-0.9
Seth Gray
.223
.298
.339
77
0.5
.170
.249
.253
44
-1.2
Yoyner Fajardo
.263
.320
.362
91
0.7
.214
.270
.287
57
-1.3
Will Holland
.216
.297
.332
74
0.3
.163
.246
.253
41
-1.2
Kyle Schmidt
.242
.316
.335
84
0.0
.180
.252
.246
41
-1.0
Dalton Shuffield
.237
.305
.373
86
0.1
.179
.250
.278
49
-1.0
Patrick Winkel
.251
.317
.370
91
0.3
.193
.262
.278
53
-1.3
Alex Isola
.250
.316
.405
100
0.4
.200
.264
.314
63
-1.6
Carson McCusker
.222
.269
.443
91
0.0
.163
.209
.312
43
-1.2
Kyler Fedko
.249
.340
.377
99
0.0
.196
.284
.291
64
-1.4
Armani Smith
.233
.297
.345
79
-0.2
.181
.246
.264
43
-1.6
Kala’i Rosario
.230
.305
.400
95
0.3
.178
.256
.306
57
-2.2
Aaron Sabato
.205
.298
.367
85
0.0
.151
.243
.268
46
-2.0
Willie Joe Garry Jr.
.209
.272
.344
70
-0.5
.152
.213
.247
30
-2.0
Jake Rucker
.238
.302
.358
85
-0.5
.186
.255
.275
50
-2.5
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Carlos Correa
.267
.353
.441
.260
.332
.443
Royce Lewis
.269
.339
.481
.267
.325
.465
Edouard Julien
.228
.346
.367
.248
.367
.410
Byron Buxton
.245
.317
.518
.240
.307
.502
Jorge Polanco
.252
.321
.427
.257
.335
.452
Max Kepler
.226
.308
.426
.242
.324
.456
Andrew Stevenson
.252
.315
.397
.266
.325
.405
Ryan Jeffers
.239
.331
.436
.230
.308
.414
Matt Wallner
.225
.327
.414
.239
.342
.434
Jose Miranda
.280
.333
.434
.266
.320
.399
Joey Gallo
.184
.306
.388
.192
.321
.441
Michael A. Taylor
.238
.304
.393
.221
.277
.373
Brooks Lee
.241
.299
.370
.246
.300
.381
Kyle Farmer
.254
.311
.391
.239
.296
.361
Yunior Severino
.221
.293
.387
.222
.286
.394
Christian Vázquez
.248
.303
.349
.238
.289
.336
Emmanuel Rodriguez
.194
.313
.343
.192
.318
.358
DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
.221
.276
.329
.236
.292
.357
Jordan Luplow
.227
.324
.453
.215
.302
.376
Anthony Prato
.240
.340
.377
.220
.316
.323
Noah Cardenas
.215
.331
.333
.202
.296
.288
Andrew Cossetti
.163
.288
.333
.166
.272
.346
Willi Castro
.250
.310
.379
.245
.304
.388
Donovan Solano
.267
.331
.375
.268
.338
.368
Jair Camargo
.221
.274
.393
.216
.257
.363
Michael Helman
.232
.296
.379
.234
.286
.377
Niko Goodrum
.235
.340
.353
.209
.312
.340
Alex Kirilloff
.240
.315
.375
.253
.320
.418
Nick Gordon
.250
.301
.408
.261
.303
.423
Ernie Yake
.220
.291
.320
.237
.305
.339
Trevor Larnach
.216
.302
.342
.231
.325
.400
Hernan Perez
.245
.296
.368
.234
.287
.354
Austin Martin
.231
.343
.315
.231
.325
.308
Ryan LaMarre
.233
.324
.378
.209
.293
.309
Noah Miller
.207
.284
.299
.208
.276
.289
Tanner Schobel
.239
.318
.364
.229
.289
.330
Mark Kolozsvary
.187
.274
.320
.174
.262
.283
David Bañuelos
.200
.268
.347
.182
.234
.313
Kyle Garlick
.222
.298
.413
.202
.271
.358
Alerick Soularie
.200
.296
.309
.204
.284
.318
Elliot Soto
.202
.281
.266
.201
.260
.284
Chris Williams
.201
.297
.362
.201
.282
.376
Ben Ross
.211
.279
.355
.209
.270
.357
Tony Wolters
.197
.300
.230
.212
.299
.295
Seth Gray
.182
.268
.285
.201
.278
.301
Yoyner Fajardo
.222
.276
.299
.244
.301
.330
Will Holland
.194
.284
.306
.184
.257
.279
Kyle Schmidt
.218
.291
.321
.206
.274
.268
Dalton Shuffield
.213
.293
.326
.204
.267
.314
Patrick Winkel
.210
.278
.321
.220
.291
.327
Alex Isola
.230
.306
.366
.222
.282
.350
Carson McCusker
.197
.247
.382
.186
.227
.372
Kyler Fedko
.220
.320
.331
.224
.303
.333
Armani Smith
.214
.288
.324
.204
.260
.282
Kala’i Rosario
.206
.291
.360
.203
.275
.353
Aaron Sabato
.178
.284
.329
.177
.261
.313
Willie Joe Garry Jr.
.169
.233
.265
.182
.245
.299
Jake Rucker
.215
.286
.326
.213
.271
.316
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Pablo López
R
28
10
7
3.68
30
30
173.7
152
71
20
45
189
Joe Ryan
R
28
10
10
4.01
27
27
150.3
133
67
20
40
156
Bailey Ober
R
28
8
6
3.98
28
28
144.7
138
64
22
35
141
Louie Varland
R
26
7
7
4.20
28
23
133.0
130
62
18
39
126
Jhoan Duran
R
26
5
3
2.80
59
0
64.3
51
20
6
19
85
Pierson Ohl
R
24
7
8
4.22
22
19
111.0
118
52
14
19
81
David Festa
R
24
4
5
4.45
23
21
91.0
87
45
11
39
86
Simeon Woods Richardson
R
23
5
7
4.67
24
21
111.7
112
58
14
49
90
Chris Paddack
R
28
5
4
4.19
15
14
68.7
67
32
9
16
69
Brent Headrick
L
26
4
5
4.40
27
14
88.0
86
43
12
33
88
Kody Funderburk
L
27
5
4
4.17
40
7
73.3
66
34
9
32
81
Travis Adams
R
24
6
7
4.74
24
23
100.7
106
53
13
38
74
Griffin Jax
R
29
7
6
4.21
51
6
77.0
70
36
10
24
79
Carlos Luna
R
27
5
5
4.65
22
15
89.0
94
46
14
25
70
Marco Raya
R
21
3
3
4.71
30
30
84.0
83
44
11
34
69
Brock Stewart
R
32
1
1
3.19
37
0
36.7
28
13
4
15
52
Blayne Enlow
R
25
4
5
4.70
23
18
84.3
86
44
12
32
74
Matt Canterino
R
26
1
1
4.45
20
19
54.7
48
27
7
26
55
Cole Sands
R
26
3
3
4.39
28
9
67.7
65
33
9
28
67
Josh Winder
R
27
5
5
4.52
29
7
71.7
73
36
10
25
61
Cody Laweryson
R
26
3
3
4.53
29
7
59.7
60
30
8
23
54
Ronny Henriquez
R
24
4
5
4.70
31
7
76.7
77
40
9
31
64
Randy Dobnak
R
29
5
6
5.02
25
21
100.3
109
56
13
42
73
Jaylen Nowlin
L
23
5
7
5.04
23
18
94.7
94
53
13
44
83
Aaron Rozek
L
28
3
4
4.94
22
14
74.7
81
41
11
25
56
Jordan Balazovic
R
25
2
3
4.82
31
10
74.7
76
40
10
36
66
Jordan Carr
L
26
3
5
4.84
19
7
61.3
67
33
8
18
41
Caleb Thielbar
L
37
3
2
3.95
45
0
41.0
39
18
6
13
46
Jose Bravo
R
27
4
5
4.96
18
9
65.3
72
36
10
23
49
Jorge Alcala
R
28
3
3
4.35
29
2
41.3
37
20
6
16
44
Jovani Moran
L
27
2
2
4.28
45
0
54.7
43
26
6
33
76
Dallas Keuchel
L
36
3
5
5.21
16
14
74.3
88
43
10
33
55
Patrick Murphy
R
29
3
5
4.92
38
5
71.3
71
39
9
38
67
José De León
R
31
1
2
4.89
18
5
35.0
34
19
5
17
37
Austin Schulfer
R
28
4
6
4.95
33
6
63.7
66
35
8
30
53
Hunter McMahon
R
26
2
2
4.66
41
2
63.7
66
33
8
19
47
Miguel Rodriguez
R
25
3
5
4.74
37
2
49.3
51
26
7
21
45
Andrew Cabezas
R
27
2
3
5.05
21
5
46.3
48
26
7
20
39
Francis Peguero
R
26
3
3
4.65
30
1
40.7
44
21
6
10
28
Josh Staumont
R
30
1
2
4.78
39
1
37.7
31
20
5
22
45
Curtis Taylor
R
28
2
4
4.89
32
1
42.3
42
23
6
20
39
Chad Donato
R
29
3
6
5.61
17
12
67.3
77
42
11
32
47
Ryan Jensen
R
26
3
6
5.40
31
9
60.0
59
36
8
38
54
Regi Grace
R
24
3
4
4.92
37
2
60.3
59
33
8
28
54
Osiris German
R
25
2
2
4.95
30
0
40.0
41
22
5
17
35
A.J. Alexy
R
26
3
5
5.51
23
10
63.7
60
39
8
48
56
Denny Bentley
L
26
3
3
5.00
33
0
45.0
46
25
6
25
42
Alex Scherff
R
26
2
3
5.04
38
0
50.0
48
28
7
30
49
Taylor Floyd
R
26
3
4
4.89
40
0
53.3
51
29
7
29
53
Isaac Mattson
R
28
1
3
5.58
22
1
30.7
28
19
4
22
32
Austin Brice
R
32
2
2
5.35
34
1
38.7
38
23
5
20
35
Connor Sadzeck
R
32
2
2
5.50
28
1
36.0
35
22
5
22
34
Jordan Brink
R
31
1
2
5.68
26
0
31.7
35
20
5
19
25
Michael Boyle
L
30
3
4
5.33
41
1
50.7
52
30
8
29
42
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Pablo López
173.7
9.8
2.3
1.0
6.3%
26.5%
.291
113
3.51
88
3.3
Joe Ryan
150.3
9.3
2.4
1.2
6.5%
25.3%
.284
104
3.89
96
2.3
Bailey Ober
144.7
8.8
2.2
1.4
5.9%
23.6%
.291
105
4.09
96
2.3
Louie Varland
133.0
8.5
2.6
1.2
6.9%
22.3%
.298
99
4.11
101
1.8
Jhoan Duran
64.3
11.9
2.7
0.8
7.1%
32.0%
.302
149
2.90
67
1.7
Pierson Ohl
111.0
6.6
1.5
1.1
4.1%
17.4%
.300
99
4.06
101
1.5
David Festa
91.0
8.5
3.9
1.1
9.8%
21.6%
.296
94
4.32
107
1.0
Simeon Woods Richardson
111.7
7.3
3.9
1.1
9.9%
18.3%
.293
89
4.64
112
1.0
Chris Paddack
68.7
9.0
2.1
1.2
5.6%
24.1%
.305
99
3.69
101
0.9
Brent Headrick
88.0
9.0
3.4
1.2
8.7%
23.1%
.303
95
4.29
106
0.9
Kody Funderburk
73.3
9.9
3.9
1.1
10.1%
25.6%
.298
100
4.16
100
0.8
Travis Adams
100.7
6.6
3.4
1.2
8.6%
16.7%
.297
88
4.66
114
0.7
Griffin Jax
77.0
9.2
2.8
1.2
7.4%
24.5%
.290
99
3.98
101
0.7
Carlos Luna
89.0
7.1
2.5
1.4
6.5%
18.3%
.296
90
4.70
112
0.7
Marco Raya
84.0
7.4
3.6
1.2
9.3%
18.8%
.289
88
4.71
113
0.7
Brock Stewart
36.7
12.8
3.7
1.0
9.8%
34.0%
.300
131
3.23
77
0.7
Blayne Enlow
84.3
7.9
3.4
1.3
8.6%
20.0%
.300
89
4.74
113
0.6
Matt Canterino
54.7
9.1
4.3
1.2
10.8%
22.8%
.281
94
4.39
107
0.6
Cole Sands
67.7
8.9
3.7
1.2
9.5%
22.8%
.299
95
4.42
105
0.6
Josh Winder
71.7
7.7
3.1
1.3
8.0%
19.6%
.297
92
4.50
109
0.5
Cody Laweryson
59.7
8.1
3.5
1.2
8.8%
20.8%
.301
92
4.50
109
0.4
Ronny Henriquez
76.7
7.5
3.6
1.1
9.3%
19.2%
.298
89
4.48
113
0.4
Randy Dobnak
100.3
6.5
3.8
1.2
9.4%
16.4%
.304
83
4.89
121
0.4
Jaylen Nowlin
94.7
7.9
4.2
1.2
10.3%
19.4%
.295
83
5.06
121
0.4
Aaron Rozek
74.7
6.8
3.0
1.3
7.6%
17.1%
.302
84
4.84
119
0.4
Jordan Balazovic
74.7
8.0
4.3
1.2
10.7%
19.6%
.301
86
4.80
116
0.4
Jordan Carr
61.3
6.0
2.6
1.2
6.8%
15.4%
.299
86
4.74
116
0.3
Caleb Thielbar
41.0
10.1
2.9
1.3
7.5%
26.6%
.308
105
3.94
95
0.3
Jose Bravo
65.3
6.8
3.2
1.4
8.0%
17.0%
.304
84
4.94
119
0.3
Jorge Alcala
41.3
9.6
3.5
1.3
9.1%
25.1%
.287
96
4.32
105
0.2
Jovani Moran
54.7
12.5
5.4
1.0
13.7%
31.5%
.303
97
3.82
103
0.2
Dallas Keuchel
74.3
6.7
4.0
1.2
9.6%
16.1%
.325
80
4.94
125
0.2
Patrick Murphy
71.3
8.5
4.8
1.1
11.8%
20.7%
.304
85
4.83
118
0.1
José De León
35.0
9.5
4.4
1.3
10.9%
23.7%
.305
85
4.63
117
0.1
Austin Schulfer
63.7
7.5
4.2
1.1
10.4%
18.4%
.304
84
4.87
119
0.1
Hunter McMahon
63.7
6.6
2.7
1.1
7.0%
17.2%
.294
89
4.54
112
0.1
Miguel Rodriguez
49.3
8.2
3.8
1.3
9.5%
20.5%
.308
88
4.67
114
0.1
Andrew Cabezas
46.3
7.6
3.9
1.4
9.7%
18.9%
.297
82
5.09
121
0.1
Francis Peguero
40.7
6.2
2.2
1.3
5.7%
16.1%
.295
90
4.76
112
0.0
Josh Staumont
37.7
10.8
5.3
1.2
13.2%
26.9%
.283
87
4.50
115
0.0
Curtis Taylor
42.3
8.3
4.3
1.3
10.6%
20.6%
.298
85
4.96
117
-0.1
Chad Donato
67.3
6.3
4.3
1.5
10.4%
15.3%
.306
74
5.54
135
-0.1
Ryan Jensen
60.0
8.1
5.7
1.2
13.7%
19.4%
.295
77
5.34
130
-0.1
Regi Grace
60.3
8.1
4.2
1.2
10.4%
20.1%
.293
85
4.98
118
-0.1
Osiris German
40.0
7.9
3.8
1.1
9.6%
19.7%
.305
84
4.71
119
-0.2
A.J. Alexy
63.7
7.9
6.8
1.1
16.1%
18.8%
.286
76
5.58
132
-0.2
Denny Bentley
45.0
8.4
5.0
1.2
12.0%
20.1%
.308
83
4.86
120
-0.2
Alex Scherff
50.0
8.8
5.4
1.3
13.0%
21.3%
.295
83
5.04
121
-0.3
Taylor Floyd
53.3
8.9
4.9
1.2
12.1%
22.1%
.299
85
4.83
117
-0.3
Isaac Mattson
30.7
9.4
6.5
1.2
15.4%
22.4%
.293
75
5.31
134
-0.3
Austin Brice
38.7
8.1
4.7
1.2
11.6%
20.2%
.297
78
5.22
129
-0.3
Connor Sadzeck
36.0
8.5
5.5
1.3
13.1%
20.2%
.297
76
5.42
132
-0.3
Jordan Brink
31.7
7.1
5.4
1.4
12.7%
16.7%
.306
73
5.72
136
-0.4
Michael Boyle
50.7
7.5
5.2
1.4
12.4%
18.0%
.293
78
5.49
128
-0.4
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Pablo López
.245
.303
.389
.214
.268
.359
4.6
2.1
3.09
4.37
Joe Ryan
.239
.307
.402
.225
.274
.383
3.3
1.2
3.46
4.77
Bailey Ober
.264
.322
.429
.229
.266
.415
3.2
1.3
3.47
4.65
Louie Varland
.253
.312
.412
.247
.301
.418
2.8
0.9
3.61
4.77
Jhoan Duran
.211
.295
.325
.214
.265
.349
2.4
0.7
2.07
4.02
Pierson Ohl
.261
.300
.447
.272
.301
.407
2.2
0.8
3.63
4.88
David Festa
.250
.333
.401
.242
.314
.401
1.7
0.4
3.89
4.99
Simeon Woods Richardson
.237
.318
.372
.272
.342
.448
1.6
0.3
4.20
5.17
Chris Paddack
.241
.287
.391
.259
.299
.422
1.4
0.4
3.52
5.04
Brent Headrick
.243
.307
.369
.253
.326
.436
1.6
0.1
3.78
5.22
Kody Funderburk
.232
.315
.368
.237
.325
.392
1.6
0.1
3.36
5.05
Travis Adams
.274
.348
.419
.258
.314
.434
1.3
0.1
4.29
5.27
Griffin Jax
.228
.303
.378
.243
.299
.402
1.3
-0.1
3.65
5.21
Carlos Luna
.274
.340
.469
.257
.297
.430
1.3
0.1
4.09
5.29
Marco Raya
.268
.351
.431
.239
.310
.403
1.2
0.0
4.23
5.45
Brock Stewart
.222
.319
.349
.192
.268
.315
1.1
0.0
2.28
4.73
Blayne Enlow
.255
.330
.420
.261
.337
.443
1.2
0.0
4.15
5.35
Matt Canterino
.240
.325
.430
.222
.309
.352
1.0
0.1
3.92
5.11
Cole Sands
.252
.338
.441
.243
.316
.375
1.1
0.0
3.76
5.13
Josh Winder
.236
.310
.417
.276
.329
.429
0.9
-0.1
3.97
5.27
Cody Laweryson
.261
.336
.423
.250
.319
.411
1.0
0.0
3.80
5.17
Ronny Henriquez
.252
.335
.410
.259
.328
.414
0.9
-0.1
4.15
5.30
Randy Dobnak
.268
.344
.459
.274
.346
.413
1.1
-0.1
4.51
5.53
Jaylen Nowlin
.244
.343
.341
.258
.352
.460
1.0
-0.2
4.56
5.59
Aaron Rozek
.250
.316
.364
.280
.341
.488
0.8
-0.2
4.44
5.66
Jordan Balazovic
.273
.364
.469
.243
.322
.388
0.9
-0.1
4.30
5.44
Jordan Carr
.256
.319
.378
.280
.339
.463
0.7
-0.1
4.33
5.43
Caleb Thielbar
.237
.286
.373
.250
.315
.450
0.7
-0.4
2.92
5.67
Jose Bravo
.287
.343
.484
.262
.331
.440
0.8
-0.2
4.35
5.57
Jorge Alcala
.254
.346
.465
.218
.281
.356
0.6
-0.2
3.62
5.27
Jovani Moran
.206
.308
.338
.213
.333
.360
0.9
-0.5
3.22
5.61
Dallas Keuchel
.269
.338
.433
.294
.366
.466
0.7
-0.4
4.55
6.00
Patrick Murphy
.240
.357
.388
.265
.345
.444
0.7
-0.5
4.19
5.72
José De León
.258
.364
.470
.239
.313
.380
0.4
-0.3
4.11
5.97
Austin Schulfer
.265
.370
.444
.259
.331
.400
0.5
-0.4
4.38
5.60
Hunter McMahon
.281
.341
.447
.246
.309
.399
0.5
-0.4
4.07
5.31
Miguel Rodriguez
.256
.337
.467
.267
.339
.400
0.4
-0.3
4.14
5.35
Andrew Cabezas
.264
.354
.448
.258
.336
.433
0.4
-0.3
4.48
5.84
Francis Peguero
.276
.329
.487
.264
.316
.414
0.3
-0.2
4.08
5.25
Josh Staumont
.231
.359
.400
.208
.303
.364
0.4
-0.5
3.70
6.21
Curtis Taylor
.263
.364
.474
.244
.330
.389
0.2
-0.6
4.32
5.82
Chad Donato
.270
.357
.467
.289
.363
.480
0.4
-0.6
5.06
6.25
Ryan Jensen
.262
.380
.458
.242
.351
.375
0.3
-0.6
4.74
6.16
Regi Grace
.234
.320
.383
.264
.368
.434
0.3
-0.6
4.43
5.53
Osiris German
.243
.346
.429
.273
.343
.409
0.2
-0.4
4.26
5.56
A.J. Alexy
.250
.406
.389
.239
.346
.413
0.3
-0.9
5.00
6.44
Denny Bentley
.254
.343
.356
.261
.355
.462
0.2
-0.6
4.32
5.82
Alex Scherff
.256
.374
.411
.238
.331
.419
0.2
-0.8
4.39
6.02
Taylor Floyd
.263
.383
.442
.232
.315
.384
0.2
-0.8
4.26
5.69
Isaac Mattson
.236
.382
.436
.238
.355
.381
0.0
-0.6
4.88
6.55
Austin Brice
.258
.372
.409
.247
.356
.424
0.0
-0.7
4.63
6.27
Connor Sadzeck
.266
.397
.453
.237
.344
.395
0.0
-0.7
4.76
6.57
Jordan Brink
.263
.391
.421
.282
.358
.493
-0.1
-0.7
5.03
6.53
Michael Boyle
.234
.342
.375
.272
.363
.478
0.0
-1.0
4.69
6.36
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.