For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.
Batters
The Brewers won 92 games in 2023, enough to coast to a division title with nine games to spare, though it didn’t really have much to do with their offense. After a respectable 2022 season, the team’s wRC+ dropped to 92, ahead of just six teams (four of which won fewer than 62 games). In a season that saw an upswing in baseball’s offensive environment, the Brewers only slugged .385, their worst showing in 30 years.
That’s not to say there weren’t bright spots, but of the four players who put up a wRC+ of at least 100 in a minimum of 100 plate appearances, two (Carlos Santana and Mark Canha) are no longer on the team. Of the two who still call Milwaukee home, William Contreras is the best bet to maintain his 2023 production, though one-year framing numbers did a lot of heavy lifting. Meanwhile, Christian Yelich had a nice little bounce back, but he’s still a 32-year-old coming off two-and-a-half far less impressive seasons. ZiPS is grumpier than Steamer with respect to Yelich, but even Steamer has him falling short of 3 WAR, and that’s in a scenario where he has nearly perfect health.
To compensate for some regression toward the mean from Contreras and Yelich (and for no longer having Canha or Santana), the Brewers have seemingly decided to… kind of just sit around and hope everything works out. There are some players for whom that strategy makes sense, most notably Willy Adames, who boasts an excellent projections for 2024. For some players, however, this approach seems less well conceived. ZiPS has Sal Frelick as the team’s third-most valuable offensive player, but it’d be a mistake to expect instant stardom. In his big league debut, he showed a solid glove but didn’t hit all that well, and after coming back from a sprained thumb, he hit quite poorly in the minors. Jackson Chourio has massive long-term projections, but ZiPS doesn’t see him going Acuña or Tatis on the league right away.
The less said about first base, the better, though ZiPS is cautiously optimistic at third. While Andruw Monasterio projects mostly as a stopgap, the computer is quite taken with Tyler Black’s potential.
All told, the Brewers would need a few breakouts and a repeat of 2023 from Contreras and Yelich just to be a league-average offense. As with last year, if they play baseball well into October, it probably won’t be the bats they thank.
Pitchers
Now we get to the good news. The Brewers aren’t really losing Brandon Woodruff; they only had about a third of him in 2023 and that didn’t keep them from leading baseball in ERA. As usual, Corbin Burnes projects to be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, with Freddy Peralta an able number two. ZiPS is a good deal more positive about Robert Gasser than Steamer is, and if he and the returning Wade Miley match their projections, the Brewers won’t even need to worry that much about a fifth starter. That said, Aaron Ashby is the most interesting of the candidates for that spot, though it remains to be seen just when he’ll return from his year-long shoulder injury and whether he’s retained his upside. Failing a strong Ashby return, seeing who of Colin Rea, Janson Junk, and Joe Ross works out doesn’t make for that bad of a situation. ZiPS is a fan of Coleman Crow, who was recently acquired for Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor; if the Brewers liked him enough to trade for him, they may like him enough to see what he can do, assuming he comes back strong this summer from Tommy John surgery.
The Rays get all the press for bullpen wizardry, but the Brewers are arguably just as skilled at conjuring relievers out of nowhere. Once again, this bullpen projects as a strong and deep unit, with four pitchers projected with an ERA under four (Devin Williams, Trevor Megill, Hoby Milner, and Abner Uribe). You can add a fifth in the form of Bryse Wilson, who gets a 3.68 ERA projection from ZiPS when used solely as a reliever. Joel Payamps just misses my arbitrary line, mostly because ZiPS is still a tad concerned about him maintaining a nearly 50% bump in strikeout rate with only small positive movement in his swinging strike rate. The offense may not leave the late inning guys with as many leads as it should, but the Brewers should get to keep most of them.
Sum it up, and the Brewers look a lot like a mid-80s team in terms of wins. That’s not celebration territory, but every team in the NL Central has some serious flaws. I think the Cardinals will bounce back to have a slightly better season than the Brewers, and the Cubs seem to finally be getting their offseason up and running as they reportedly work to sign Shōta Imanaga, but as negative as I am about Milwaukee’s offense, it would be a mistake to simply dismiss the Brew Crew as contenders.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Willy Adames
R
28
SS
622
553
82
138
33
1
28
89
63
161
5
3
William Contreras
R
26
C
544
483
70
129
26
1
19
69
54
123
3
1
Sal Frelick
L
24
CF
545
496
68
135
23
5
8
65
39
78
13
5
Tyler Black
L
23
3B
515
442
73
105
21
8
10
61
60
116
25
8
Jackson Chourio
R
20
CF
612
571
77
150
26
3
17
76
34
137
35
9
Christian Yelich
L
32
LF
590
506
89
127
25
2
18
68
78
138
19
3
Josh Donaldson
R
38
3B
391
334
46
74
17
0
16
47
49
102
1
1
Andruw Monasterio
R
27
3B
464
409
60
102
20
2
7
47
46
108
10
4
Brice Turang
L
24
2B
539
485
63
117
19
3
9
51
48
112
22
4
Jeferson Quero
R
21
C
405
372
43
91
15
1
11
46
27
94
3
1
Oliver Dunn
L
26
2B
446
389
48
82
19
4
11
46
53
154
8
3
Blake Perkins
B
27
CF
367
320
46
70
15
2
8
38
41
102
8
3
Garrett Mitchell
L
25
CF
304
273
39
69
14
2
6
37
24
99
13
1
Jahmai Jones
R
26
2B
436
377
52
85
20
3
10
48
50
116
8
4
Keston Hiura
R
27
1B
398
352
46
84
15
1
20
66
30
131
3
2
Greg Allen
B
31
CF
277
234
41
55
11
2
4
34
23
70
19
3
Brian Anderson
R
31
3B
363
320
39
74
14
1
11
41
35
104
2
1
Joey Wiemer
R
25
CF
474
425
59
95
21
1
16
58
40
136
13
4
Vinny Capra
R
27
SS
301
266
34
66
14
2
4
31
29
64
4
2
Josh VanMeter
L
29
2B
307
261
35
55
12
2
8
33
42
82
3
1
Carlos Santana
B
38
1B
522
448
62
100
19
0
19
66
70
96
3
1
Owen Miller
R
27
2B
447
410
45
101
23
1
9
48
27
91
8
1
Yonny Hernández
B
26
SS
426
358
58
79
11
3
2
33
54
93
17
8
Brock Wilken
R
22
3B
213
186
21
40
7
3
4
23
23
65
2
1
Chris Roller
R
27
CF
373
322
41
68
14
2
8
43
39
116
10
4
Darin Ruf 러프
R
37
1B
277
239
31
55
11
1
10
32
34
84
1
1
Austin Nola
R
34
C
270
234
26
57
12
0
4
26
27
50
0
1
Isaac Collins
B
26
LF
421
363
53
84
18
3
5
41
47
93
14
6
Eric Brown Jr.
R
23
SS
300
267
43
61
9
0
5
30
24
71
19
3
Jesse Winker
L
30
1B
415
350
47
83
16
0
12
48
58
83
0
1
Brian Navarreto
R
29
C
268
246
27
54
10
1
6
28
17
66
0
1
Skye Bolt
B
30
LF
263
235
30
52
10
1
5
30
24
76
4
1
Brewer Hicklen
R
28
DH
414
365
56
78
17
3
14
62
38
150
19
3
Jose Caballero
R
21
SS
104
86
14
17
3
0
1
7
17
27
4
1
Ramón Rodríguez
R
25
C
218
198
19
48
8
0
3
19
15
33
1
1
Felix Valerio
R
23
2B
418
380
49
86
17
2
7
42
29
91
9
5
Brent Diaz
R
28
C
185
166
17
36
7
0
4
23
12
57
1
1
Wes Clarke
R
24
1B
495
417
51
83
22
0
18
66
65
180
3
1
Jake Bauers
L
28
RF
357
312
38
68
14
1
14
42
42
109
7
2
Jason Lopez
R
26
C
161
145
14
30
6
1
3
14
14
55
2
1
Nick Kahle
R
26
C
179
159
14
30
8
0
3
17
15
60
0
1
Patrick Dorrian
L
28
2B
412
375
43
76
16
2
15
50
33
151
2
2
David Garcia
B
24
C
261
237
27
49
9
1
3
24
18
82
1
1
Freddy Zamora
R
25
SS
422
379
48
84
16
1
4
37
36
107
8
2
Ethan Murray
R
24
SS
400
357
38
75
15
2
4
35
35
114
6
3
Ernesto Martinez
L
25
1B
371
335
40
74
13
2
9
42
29
109
10
4
Monte Harrison
R
28
CF
331
301
41
54
10
1
7
35
25
155
16
4
Terence Doston
L
23
LF
200
183
23
41
4
0
1
16
12
50
7
2
Darrien Miller
L
23
C
372
324
42
67
13
1
7
41
33
103
2
1
Zavier Warren
B
25
1B
448
407
43
86
18
2
9
46
34
117
4
1
Lamar Sparks
R
25
RF
345
310
37
61
11
3
6
34
33
140
9
5
Tristen Lutz
R
25
DH
268
240
22
46
9
0
6
30
22
105
1
2
Noah Campbell
B
25
LF
343
303
37
64
13
2
4
32
34
103
5
3
Alex Hall
B
25
LF
293
268
28
52
12
1
6
27
22
103
0
1
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Willy Adames
622
.250
.328
.465
116
.215
.302
5
3.9
.339
87
William Contreras
544
.267
.344
.443
116
.176
.323
-1
3.1
.341
75
Sal Frelick
545
.272
.333
.387
99
.115
.310
3
1.8
.315
69
Tyler Black
515
.238
.342
.389
102
.152
.301
-1
1.7
.323
67
Jackson Chourio
612
.263
.306
.408
95
.145
.319
1
1.7
.308
82
Christian Yelich
590
.251
.354
.415
112
.164
.311
-2
1.7
.335
79
Josh Donaldson
391
.222
.325
.416
103
.195
.269
2
1.4
.322
46
Andruw Monasterio
464
.249
.330
.359
91
.110
.323
5
1.4
.306
52
Brice Turang
539
.241
.309
.348
82
.107
.297
7
1.4
.291
58
Jeferson Quero
405
.245
.299
.379
86
.134
.300
4
1.3
.296
43
Oliver Dunn
446
.211
.309
.365
86
.154
.317
5
1.2
.298
47
Blake Perkins
367
.219
.310
.353
83
.134
.295
6
1.0
.295
38
Garrett Mitchell
304
.253
.323
.385
95
.132
.375
0
1.0
.312
37
Jahmai Jones
436
.225
.323
.374
92
.149
.299
-1
0.9
.309
49
Keston Hiura
398
.239
.322
.457
112
.219
.318
0
0.9
.335
53
Greg Allen
277
.235
.339
.350
92
.115
.319
0
0.9
.311
33
Brian Anderson
363
.231
.317
.384
93
.153
.307
1
0.8
.308
40
Joey Wiemer
474
.224
.297
.391
88
.167
.289
0
0.8
.299
54
Vinny Capra
301
.248
.327
.361
90
.113
.313
0
0.8
.305
33
Josh VanMeter
307
.211
.322
.364
90
.153
.275
1
0.7
.306
32
Carlos Santana
522
.223
.328
.393
98
.170
.243
2
0.7
.317
59
Owen Miller
447
.246
.298
.373
84
.127
.297
2
0.7
.291
48
Yonny Hernández
426
.221
.334
.285
74
.064
.293
1
0.6
.288
41
Brock Wilken
213
.215
.310
.349
82
.134
.308
4
0.6
.292
21
Chris Roller
373
.211
.309
.342
80
.130
.303
3
0.6
.291
38
Darin Ruf
277
.230
.332
.410
104
.180
.310
1
0.6
.326
33
Austin Nola
270
.244
.328
.346
87
.103
.294
-2
0.5
.302
27
Isaac Collins
421
.231
.328
.339
85
.107
.298
5
0.5
.300
46
Eric Brown Jr.
300
.228
.307
.318
74
.090
.293
0
0.5
.282
31
Jesse Winker
415
.237
.354
.386
105
.149
.278
-4
0.4
.330
48
Brian Navarreto
268
.220
.273
.341
69
.122
.276
4
0.3
.270
23
Skye Bolt
263
.221
.300
.336
76
.115
.305
6
0.3
.284
25
Brewer Hicklen
414
.214
.303
.392
90
.178
.318
0
0.2
.304
48
Jose Caballero
104
.198
.337
.267
71
.070
.276
0
0.2
.286
9
Ramón Rodríguez
218
.242
.296
.328
73
.086
.278
0
0.1
.277
20
Felix Valerio
418
.226
.289
.337
73
.111
.280
2
0.0
.277
41
Brent Diaz
185
.217
.292
.331
72
.114
.305
-1
0.0
.278
17
Wes Clarke
495
.199
.319
.381
93
.182
.297
-3
0.0
.311
52
Jake Bauers
357
.218
.311
.404
96
.186
.286
-5
-0.1
.312
41
Jason Lopez
161
.207
.280
.324
67
.117
.310
-2
-0.2
.268
14
Nick Kahle
179
.189
.266
.296
55
.107
.281
1
-0.2
.252
13
Patrick Dorrian
412
.203
.272
.376
77
.173
.292
-3
-0.2
.282
40
David Garcia
261
.207
.276
.291
57
.084
.303
0
-0.2
.256
20
Freddy Zamora
422
.222
.296
.301
66
.079
.299
-3
-0.3
.270
36
Ethan Murray
400
.210
.286
.297
62
.087
.297
-2
-0.5
.263
33
Ernesto Martinez
371
.221
.294
.352
78
.131
.300
0
-0.5
.286
38
Monte Harrison
331
.179
.251
.289
49
.110
.338
2
-0.7
.242
27
Terence Doston
200
.224
.283
.262
53
.038
.303
0
-0.7
.249
16
Darrien Miller
372
.207
.305
.318
73
.111
.280
-12
-0.7
.282
32
Zavier Warren
448
.211
.277
.332
68
.120
.274
5
-0.8
.269
39
Lamar Sparks
345
.197
.278
.310
63
.113
.335
0
-1.1
.264
31
Tristen Lutz
268
.192
.269
.304
58
.113
.310
0
-1.1
.257
21
Noah Campbell
343
.211
.298
.307
68
.096
.306
-5
-1.3
.274
30
Alex Hall
293
.194
.259
.313
58
.119
.289
-4
-1.5
.252
22
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Willy Adames
.272
.352
.530
136
5.4
.224
.305
.412
99
2.6
William Contreras
.294
.368
.496
137
4.5
.240
.318
.398
98
1.8
Sal Frelick
.298
.357
.426
115
3.0
.242
.308
.342
81
0.7
Tyler Black
.264
.366
.451
123
2.9
.211
.314
.339
83
0.5
Jackson Chourio
.291
.332
.458
114
3.1
.236
.277
.364
78
0.3
Christian Yelich
.273
.379
.463
130
3.0
.225
.327
.364
92
0.2
Josh Donaldson
.244
.352
.471
121
2.2
.198
.297
.358
80
0.4
Andruw Monasterio
.277
.357
.401
109
2.4
.221
.301
.315
72
0.3
Brice Turang
.264
.334
.387
98
2.5
.217
.284
.309
66
0.3
Jeferson Quero
.276
.326
.428
104
2.2
.219
.271
.331
67
0.3
Oliver Dunn
.238
.332
.413
103
2.0
.185
.284
.316
65
0.1
Blake Perkins
.243
.338
.408
103
1.9
.191
.283
.315
66
0.2
Garrett Mitchell
.282
.352
.434
116
1.7
.224
.295
.338
75
0.2
Jahmai Jones
.247
.348
.423
109
1.8
.200
.300
.330
73
0.0
Keston Hiura
.269
.347
.512
134
2.0
.214
.295
.402
92
0.0
Greg Allen
.260
.361
.390
106
1.4
.211
.314
.302
74
0.2
Brian Anderson
.258
.345
.433
111
1.6
.204
.293
.336
75
0.0
Joey Wiemer
.246
.321
.446
107
1.9
.196
.270
.344
68
-0.4
Vinny Capra
.276
.354
.410
110
1.5
.220
.298
.316
72
0.1
Josh VanMeter
.240
.353
.422
110
1.5
.182
.296
.324
71
0.1
Carlos Santana
.247
.357
.443
117
1.9
.201
.302
.344
80
-0.4
Owen Miller
.270
.320
.420
102
1.6
.217
.271
.328
65
-0.4
Yonny Hernández
.244
.360
.319
89
1.4
.193
.307
.252
59
-0.2
Brock Wilken
.243
.334
.406
100
1.1
.192
.287
.303
64
0.2
Chris Roller
.238
.335
.395
101
1.4
.181
.281
.299
61
-0.3
Darin Ruf
.256
.364
.468
126
1.3
.203
.300
.355
83
-0.2
Austin Nola
.275
.358
.391
105
1.1
.215
.302
.299
67
-0.1
Isaac Collins
.257
.354
.380
101
1.4
.209
.302
.298
67
-0.4
Eric Brown Jr.
.259
.335
.368
92
1.1
.201
.282
.278
56
-0.2
Jesse Winker
.264
.378
.432
123
1.3
.213
.327
.329
83
-0.6
Brian Navarreto
.254
.304
.406
92
1.1
.188
.240
.294
47
-0.3
Skye Bolt
.249
.329
.382
93
0.8
.195
.271
.293
55
-0.4
Brewer Hicklen
.239
.329
.447
113
1.3
.187
.280
.337
70
-0.7
Jose Caballero
.232
.370
.318
93
0.4
.169
.304
.226
52
-0.1
Ramón Rodríguez
.275
.333
.375
94
0.7
.207
.261
.287
54
-0.4
Felix Valerio
.253
.317
.386
90
1.0
.200
.264
.292
55
-1.0
Brent Diaz
.245
.323
.375
89
0.4
.186
.266
.282
52
-0.4
Wes Clarke
.226
.346
.430
110
1.0
.175
.292
.325
70
-1.3
Jake Bauers
.241
.339
.468
118
0.8
.192
.283
.357
78
-0.8
Jason Lopez
.235
.311
.377
90
0.3
.176
.249
.280
46
-0.6
Nick Kahle
.220
.299
.353
77
0.3
.160
.234
.251
36
-0.6
Patrick Dorrian
.230
.298
.432
99
0.9
.175
.245
.326
59
-1.1
David Garcia
.239
.309
.337
77
0.4
.177
.251
.250
39
-0.8
Freddy Zamora
.244
.320
.336
81
0.5
.195
.271
.267
51
-1.1
Ethan Murray
.238
.315
.339
81
0.3
.186
.261
.258
46
-1.3
Ernesto Martinez
.250
.324
.399
99
0.4
.201
.270
.311
63
-1.2
Monte Harrison
.206
.278
.338
69
0.1
.150
.220
.241
29
-1.6
Terence Doston
.255
.314
.296
70
-0.3
.200
.258
.226
36
-1.2
Darrien Miller
.239
.337
.376
96
0.3
.178
.276
.273
55
-1.6
Zavier Warren
.235
.303
.375
86
0.2
.186
.253
.287
51
-1.7
Lamar Sparks
.222
.304
.357
79
-0.3
.170
.253
.267
44
-1.8
Tristen Lutz
.215
.294
.349
75
-0.6
.167
.243
.261
41
-1.7
Noah Campbell
.240
.329
.347
86
-0.5
.186
.274
.262
52
-2.0
Alex Hall
.219
.285
.362
77
-0.9
.166
.232
.267
39
-2.2
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Willy Adames
.246
.335
.454
.251
.324
.470
William Contreras
.277
.361
.452
.261
.334
.438
Sal Frelick
.267
.328
.378
.275
.335
.392
Tyler Black
.228
.329
.382
.242
.347
.392
Jackson Chourio
.265
.315
.419
.261
.299
.401
Christian Yelich
.245
.335
.406
.253
.362
.419
Josh Donaldson
.229
.342
.438
.218
.318
.408
Andruw Monasterio
.254
.341
.370
.246
.320
.351
Brice Turang
.234
.303
.330
.246
.313
.360
Jeferson Quero
.250
.310
.385
.241
.291
.375
Oliver Dunn
.200
.296
.336
.215
.315
.376
Blake Perkins
.221
.313
.374
.217
.307
.339
Garrett Mitchell
.247
.320
.376
.256
.325
.389
Jahmai Jones
.227
.333
.396
.224
.315
.359
Keston Hiura
.237
.322
.443
.240
.321
.466
Greg Allen
.238
.340
.350
.234
.339
.351
Brian Anderson
.228
.319
.356
.233
.316
.397
Joey Wiemer
.237
.315
.424
.211
.282
.361
Vinny Capra
.258
.343
.383
.240
.313
.342
Josh VanMeter
.210
.329
.387
.211
.321
.357
Carlos Santana
.238
.337
.385
.216
.323
.397
Owen Miller
.245
.299
.358
.247
.297
.382
Yonny Hernández
.219
.337
.285
.222
.332
.285
Brock Wilken
.221
.326
.390
.211
.298
.321
Chris Roller
.216
.321
.351
.207
.301
.335
Darin Ruf
.240
.356
.460
.223
.314
.374
Austin Nola
.256
.346
.378
.236
.317
.326
Isaac Collins
.239
.339
.355
.226
.319
.327
Eric Brown Jr.
.231
.314
.327
.227
.302
.313
Jesse Winker
.217
.337
.361
.243
.360
.393
Brian Navarreto
.216
.277
.333
.222
.271
.347
Skye Bolt
.230
.309
.345
.216
.295
.331
Brewer Hicklen
.215
.308
.401
.213
.297
.383
Jose Caballero
.200
.349
.229
.196
.328
.294
Ramón Rodríguez
.253
.313
.333
.234
.283
.324
Felix Valerio
.234
.300
.359
.219
.279
.316
Brent Diaz
.214
.290
.333
.220
.293
.329
Wes Clarke
.201
.330
.385
.197
.311
.378
Jake Bauers
.212
.292
.353
.220
.318
.423
Jason Lopez
.213
.289
.360
.200
.269
.286
Nick Kahle
.197
.288
.296
.182
.247
.295
Patrick Dorrian
.188
.260
.353
.211
.278
.388
David Garcia
.202
.275
.273
.210
.276
.304
Freddy Zamora
.224
.303
.321
.220
.291
.287
Ethan Murray
.213
.293
.310
.208
.281
.287
Ernesto Martinez
.214
.287
.327
.224
.297
.363
Monte Harrison
.179
.262
.299
.180
.242
.281
Terence Doston
.211
.274
.228
.230
.287
.278
Darrien Miller
.192
.300
.288
.214
.307
.332
Zavier Warren
.200
.275
.306
.219
.278
.350
Lamar Sparks
.198
.291
.336
.196
.269
.291
Tristen Lutz
.195
.276
.319
.189
.262
.291
Noah Campbell
.211
.308
.298
.212
.292
.312
Alex Hall
.196
.264
.299
.193
.257
.322
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Corbin Burnes
R
29
10
7
3.32
30
30
179.0
144
66
17
56
197
Brandon Woodruff
R
31
8
4
3.16
22
22
119.7
97
42
14
31
132
Freddy Peralta
R
28
10
9
3.86
29
28
151.7
122
65
20
56
173
Robert Gasser
L
25
5
6
4.29
25
24
126.0
117
60
17
44
127
Wade Miley
L
37
6
7
4.24
21
21
110.3
114
52
15
40
75
Devin Williams
R
29
7
4
3.00
61
0
57.0
39
19
7
26
83
Coleman Crow
R
23
5
4
4.26
19
19
101.3
99
48
13
32
86
Evan McKendry
R
26
7
7
4.41
24
19
116.3
119
57
17
31
89
Aaron Ashby
L
26
6
6
4.08
26
17
88.3
81
40
11
43
100
Eric Lauer
L
29
7
8
4.40
22
20
106.3
100
52
17
41
101
Tobias Myers
R
25
6
8
4.59
25
23
115.7
114
59
18
43
108
Janson Junk
R
28
7
7
4.59
25
22
117.7
127
60
17
36
80
Colin Rea
R
33
5
5
4.55
24
21
112.7
114
57
18
31
98
Bryse Wilson
R
26
5
6
4.34
38
13
105.7
107
51
16
29
80
Caleb Boushley
R
30
6
9
4.78
25
22
113.0
120
60
16
39
82
Easton McGee
R
26
4
5
4.48
17
15
76.3
83
38
11
16
51
Chad Patrick
R
25
6
7
4.78
23
22
107.3
111
57
16
42
87
Brandon Knarr
L
26
5
8
4.72
20
18
95.3
95
50
14
47
87
Adam Seminaris
L
25
5
6
4.66
19
18
75.3
78
39
11
30
62
Jared Koenig
L
30
5
6
4.66
32
12
87.0
89
45
13
35
73
Abner Uribe
R
24
1
1
3.74
57
0
55.3
39
23
6
35
73
Ethan Small
L
27
4
4
4.52
31
11
69.7
65
35
10
39
74
Joel Payamps
R
30
5
5
4.02
56
1
65.0
60
29
9
24
64
Joe Ross
R
31
4
4
4.79
16
13
67.7
69
36
11
25
57
Bryan Hudson
L
27
3
4
4.32
44
5
58.3
53
28
8
27
65
Hoby Milner
L
33
2
1
3.88
63
0
55.7
53
24
8
15
54
James Meeker
R
29
5
5
4.54
34
6
75.3
81
38
11
17
52
Nick Bennett
L
26
4
6
4.93
26
11
80.3
81
44
12
35
67
Trevor Megill
R
30
1
1
3.47
32
0
36.3
32
14
5
13
51
TJ Shook
R
26
4
6
5.03
21
12
82.3
81
46
13
38
74
Julio Teheran
R
33
3
5
4.94
14
12
71.0
73
39
13
26
55
Pedro Fernandez
R
30
2
3
4.95
19
9
60.0
64
33
9
23
43
Jason Alexander
R
31
3
5
5.09
20
12
76.0
87
43
11
26
48
J.B. Bukauskas
R
27
3
3
4.25
36
2
48.7
47
23
7
16
47
Rob Zastryzny
L
32
2
2
4.44
30
4
46.7
47
23
7
17
46
Taylor Clarke
R
31
3
4
4.50
46
3
54.0
53
27
9
19
56
Elvis Peguero
R
27
4
5
4.26
53
0
61.3
57
29
8
22
60
Russell Smith
L
25
3
4
4.85
23
5
55.7
53
30
8
27
51
Thyago Vieira
R
30
2
3
4.28
35
0
40.0
36
19
6
14
44
Christian Mejias
R
25
5
9
5.34
22
18
94.3
98
56
15
45
78
Blake Holub
R
25
4
4
4.55
43
1
55.3
54
28
8
23
51
Jacob Misiorowski
R
22
3
4
5.30
22
22
74.7
62
44
11
48
87
Clayton Andrews
L
27
3
3
4.56
45
1
51.3
47
26
8
27
60
J.C. Mejía
R
27
2
4
5.00
26
4
45.0
44
25
7
21
42
Alex Claudio
L
32
2
2
4.65
45
1
40.7
46
21
6
13
26
Justin Yeager
R
26
2
2
4.66
36
0
38.7
34
20
6
24
45
Fernando Abad
L
38
2
3
4.75
35
0
36.0
41
19
6
10
28
Ryan Middendorf
R
26
2
3
4.58
37
0
55.0
56
28
8
17
43
Harold Chirino
R
26
2
4
4.81
30
0
39.3
36
21
6
19
42
Robbie Baker
R
29
2
3
4.88
29
0
48.0
51
26
8
17
39
Robert Stock
R
34
1
3
5.70
13
6
30.0
31
19
5
18
25
Darrell Thompson
L
30
3
5
4.81
43
0
48.7
45
26
8
24
54
Luis Amaya
L
25
2
2
5.05
34
1
51.7
51
29
8
27
47
Enoli Paredes
R
28
3
3
5.06
46
0
48.0
42
27
7
36
56
Zach Vennaro
R
28
2
4
6.05
38
0
38.7
39
26
6
28
35
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Corbin Burnes
179.0
9.9
2.8
0.9
7.6%
26.9%
.279
131
3.36
76
3.9
Brandon Woodruff
119.7
9.9
2.3
1.1
6.5%
27.5%
.275
138
3.47
72
2.8
Freddy Peralta
151.7
10.3
3.3
1.2
8.9%
27.6%
.273
113
3.95
88
2.6
Robert Gasser
126.0
9.1
3.1
1.2
8.2%
23.7%
.292
102
4.30
98
1.6
Wade Miley
110.3
6.1
3.3
1.2
8.4%
15.7%
.286
103
4.83
97
1.4
Devin Williams
57.0
13.1
4.1
1.1
11.0%
35.2%
.274
145
3.41
69
1.4
Coleman Crow
101.3
7.6
2.8
1.2
7.4%
19.9%
.290
102
4.35
98
1.3
Evan McKendry
116.3
6.9
2.4
1.3
6.3%
18.0%
.289
99
4.60
101
1.3
Aaron Ashby
88.3
10.2
4.4
1.1
11.1%
25.7%
.306
107
4.24
93
1.2
Eric Lauer
106.3
8.5
3.5
1.4
9.0%
22.2%
.282
99
4.65
101
1.2
Tobias Myers
115.7
8.4
3.3
1.4
8.6%
21.6%
.294
95
4.63
105
1.1
Janson Junk
117.7
6.1
2.8
1.3
7.1%
15.7%
.294
95
4.77
105
1.1
Colin Rea
112.7
7.8
2.5
1.4
6.5%
20.5%
.293
96
4.50
104
1.0
Bryse Wilson
105.7
6.8
2.5
1.4
6.5%
17.8%
.284
100
4.65
100
1.0
Caleb Boushley
113.0
6.5
3.1
1.3
7.9%
16.7%
.295
91
4.79
110
0.9
Easton McGee
76.3
6.0
1.9
1.3
4.9%
15.7%
.295
97
4.58
103
0.8
Chad Patrick
107.3
7.3
3.5
1.3
8.9%
18.4%
.295
91
4.89
110
0.8
Brandon Knarr
95.3
8.2
4.4
1.3
11.0%
20.3%
.297
92
4.94
108
0.8
Adam Seminaris
75.3
7.4
3.6
1.3
9.0%
18.6%
.298
94
4.82
107
0.6
Jared Koenig
87.0
7.6
3.6
1.3
9.2%
19.1%
.295
94
4.86
107
0.6
Abner Uribe
55.3
11.9
5.7
1.0
14.2%
29.6%
.268
117
4.09
86
0.5
Ethan Small
69.7
9.6
5.0
1.3
12.4%
23.5%
.297
96
4.81
104
0.5
Joel Payamps
65.0
8.9
3.3
1.2
8.7%
23.1%
.287
109
4.33
92
0.5
Joe Ross
67.7
7.6
3.3
1.5
8.5%
19.5%
.291
91
5.01
110
0.5
Bryan Hudson
58.3
10.0
4.2
1.2
10.7%
25.7%
.298
101
4.35
99
0.5
Hoby Milner
55.7
8.7
2.4
1.3
6.5%
23.3%
.292
112
4.21
89
0.4
James Meeker
75.3
6.2
2.0
1.3
5.3%
16.2%
.294
96
4.69
104
0.4
Nick Bennett
80.3
7.5
3.9
1.3
9.9%
18.9%
.291
88
5.17
113
0.4
Trevor Megill
36.3
12.6
3.2
1.2
8.3%
32.7%
.325
126
3.39
80
0.4
TJ Shook
82.3
8.1
4.2
1.4
10.4%
20.3%
.289
87
5.22
115
0.4
Julio Teheran
71.0
7.0
3.3
1.6
8.4%
17.8%
.282
88
5.40
113
0.3
Pedro Fernandez
60.0
6.5
3.5
1.4
8.7%
16.3%
.294
88
5.02
114
0.3
Jason Alexander
76.0
5.7
3.1
1.3
7.7%
14.2%
.304
86
5.10
117
0.3
J.B. Bukauskas
48.7
8.7
3.0
1.3
7.7%
22.6%
.294
102
4.30
98
0.3
Rob Zastryzny
46.7
8.9
3.3
1.4
8.3%
22.5%
.305
98
4.46
102
0.3
Taylor Clarke
54.0
9.3
3.2
1.5
8.2%
24.0%
.301
97
4.51
103
0.2
Elvis Peguero
61.3
8.8
3.2
1.2
8.3%
22.7%
.290
102
4.27
98
0.2
Russell Smith
55.7
8.2
4.4
1.3
10.8%
20.5%
.287
90
4.96
111
0.2
Thyago Vieira
40.0
9.9
3.2
1.4
8.3%
26.0%
.291
102
4.28
98
0.2
Christian Mejias
94.3
7.4
4.3
1.4
10.5%
18.2%
.295
82
5.35
123
0.1
Blake Holub
55.3
8.3
3.7
1.3
9.3%
20.7%
.293
96
4.65
104
0.1
Jacob Misiorowski
74.7
10.5
5.8
1.3
14.1%
25.5%
.279
82
5.57
122
0.1
Clayton Andrews
51.3
10.5
4.7
1.4
11.6%
25.9%
.300
96
4.64
105
0.0
J.C. Mejía
45.0
8.4
4.2
1.4
10.6%
21.1%
.291
87
5.08
115
0.0
Alex Claudio
40.7
5.8
2.9
1.3
7.3%
14.5%
.301
94
4.93
107
0.0
Justin Yeager
38.7
10.5
5.6
1.4
13.6%
25.6%
.289
94
4.88
107
0.0
Fernando Abad
36.0
7.0
2.5
1.5
6.4%
17.8%
.313
92
4.70
109
0.0
Ryan Middendorf
55.0
7.0
2.8
1.3
7.1%
18.1%
.289
95
4.84
105
-0.1
Harold Chirino
39.3
9.6
4.3
1.4
11.0%
24.3%
.291
91
5.01
110
-0.1
Robbie Baker
48.0
7.3
3.2
1.5
8.1%
18.5%
.299
89
4.98
112
-0.1
Robert Stock
30.0
7.5
5.4
1.5
12.9%
17.9%
.292
76
5.86
131
-0.1
Darrell Thompson
48.7
10.0
4.4
1.5
11.2%
25.2%
.294
91
4.96
110
-0.2
Luis Amaya
51.7
8.2
4.7
1.4
11.6%
20.2%
.293
86
5.31
116
-0.2
Enoli Paredes
48.0
10.5
6.8
1.3
16.2%
25.2%
.292
86
5.26
116
-0.3
Zach Vennaro
38.7
8.1
6.5
1.4
15.3%
19.1%
.297
72
6.18
139
-0.6
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Corbin Burnes
.227
.299
.363
.204
.265
.322
5.2
2.7
2.74
3.95
Brandon Woodruff
.214
.275
.362
.219
.272
.362
3.5
2.0
2.66
3.78
Freddy Peralta
.208
.302
.353
.221
.284
.386
3.6
1.2
3.29
4.61
Robert Gasser
.221
.304
.303
.247
.319
.437
2.4
0.6
3.74
4.99
Wade Miley
.232
.295
.337
.270
.333
.452
2.0
0.9
3.73
4.83
Devin Williams
.198
.308
.366
.179
.261
.302
2.2
0.5
2.27
4.13
Coleman Crow
.257
.325
.426
.244
.303
.394
2.0
0.6
3.70
4.99
Evan McKendry
.266
.328
.436
.253
.300
.427
2.1
0.6
3.87
4.95
Aaron Ashby
.233
.333
.372
.240
.330
.402
1.9
0.4
3.54
4.80
Eric Lauer
.260
.339
.406
.237
.304
.430
1.9
0.4
3.81
5.11
Tobias Myers
.257
.329
.434
.247
.311
.427
2.0
0.4
4.02
5.15
Janson Junk
.274
.326
.461
.266
.320
.433
1.7
0.5
4.15
5.02
Colin Rea
.259
.317
.432
.254
.299
.446
1.7
0.2
3.98
5.34
Bryse Wilson
.270
.330
.454
.245
.291
.418
1.6
0.3
3.82
4.95
Caleb Boushley
.266
.341
.438
.267
.317
.445
1.5
0.3
4.30
5.32
Easton McGee
.288
.336
.492
.259
.296
.414
1.3
0.4
3.98
5.06
Chad Patrick
.280
.356
.455
.244
.312
.422
1.4
0.1
4.30
5.36
Brandon Knarr
.282
.370
.436
.242
.329
.424
1.4
0.1
4.17
5.40
Adam Seminaris
.239
.306
.352
.271
.345
.476
1.1
0.1
4.12
5.27
Jared Koenig
.245
.324
.378
.264
.335
.459
1.1
-0.2
4.14
5.46
Abner Uribe
.192
.333
.343
.194
.306
.320
1.1
-0.3
3.06
4.93
Ethan Small
.247
.343
.400
.239
.341
.413
1.2
-0.2
3.79
5.41
Joel Payamps
.222
.303
.380
.252
.316
.420
1.1
-0.1
3.37
4.93
Joe Ross
.281
.372
.492
.237
.291
.396
1.0
0.1
4.21
5.45
Bryan Hudson
.230
.318
.351
.240
.327
.427
1.0
-0.1
3.55
5.23
Hoby Milner
.220
.278
.329
.261
.320
.463
1.0
-0.1
3.08
4.85
James Meeker
.253
.304
.445
.284
.333
.452
0.9
-0.1
4.02
5.16
Nick Bennett
.232
.320
.375
.270
.359
.471
0.8
-0.2
4.44
5.56
Trevor Megill
.226
.304
.355
.234
.294
.429
0.8
0.0
2.59
4.47
TJ Shook
.259
.353
.451
.244
.337
.425
0.9
-0.2
4.48
5.70
Julio Teheran
.274
.361
.504
.247
.302
.418
0.7
-0.1
4.42
5.69
Pedro Fernandez
.282
.360
.473
.256
.312
.419
0.6
-0.2
4.42
5.67
Jason Alexander
.277
.348
.475
.286
.341
.446
0.7
-0.2
4.60
5.71
J.B. Bukauskas
.258
.327
.461
.238
.297
.376
0.7
-0.2
3.52
5.10
Rob Zastryzny
.224
.308
.345
.270
.331
.476
0.7
-0.1
3.60
5.37
Taylor Clarke
.250
.330
.427
.252
.304
.452
0.8
-0.3
3.61
5.51
Elvis Peguero
.257
.342
.448
.227
.290
.356
0.7
-0.4
3.62
5.18
Russell Smith
.253
.341
.367
.241
.335
.445
0.6
-0.3
4.22
5.63
Thyago Vieira
.225
.313
.423
.244
.308
.402
0.6
-0.3
3.40
5.44
Christian Mejias
.282
.370
.464
.244
.333
.430
0.6
-0.5
4.88
5.98
Blake Holub
.262
.353
.417
.239
.298
.425
0.5
-0.2
3.96
5.20
Jacob Misiorowski
.204
.364
.409
.236
.376
.375
0.8
-0.6
4.63
6.09
Clayton Andrews
.242
.338
.419
.235
.331
.412
0.6
-0.4
3.81
5.40
J.C. Mejía
.279
.374
.477
.222
.311
.389
0.4
-0.3
4.36
5.73
Alex Claudio
.230
.266
.377
.308
.371
.500
0.3
-0.4
4.03
5.37
Justin Yeager
.243
.369
.457
.218
.311
.372
0.3
-0.5
3.94
5.78
Fernando Abad
.271
.306
.424
.287
.337
.506
0.2
-0.4
4.01
6.19
Ryan Middendorf
.279
.345
.442
.239
.310
.416
0.4
-0.4
3.97
5.15
Harold Chirino
.240
.352
.413
.237
.337
.421
0.3
-0.4
4.04
5.56
Robbie Baker
.281
.346
.469
.253
.314
.442
0.3
-0.5
4.19
5.71
Robert Stock
.276
.391
.431
.246
.347
.475
0.1
-0.4
5.08
6.94
Darrell Thompson
.213
.314
.361
.252
.351
.457
0.3
-0.7
3.99
5.96
Luis Amaya
.229
.329
.357
.265
.364
.477
0.2
-0.7
4.42
5.87
Enoli Paredes
.244
.375
.453
.216
.353
.361
0.1
-0.9
4.33
6.17
Zach Vennaro
.282
.427
.535
.235
.364
.358
-0.3
-1.0
5.34
6.93
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.