For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Miami Marlins.
Batters
While the Marlins’ lineup, 15th in the NL in runs scored in 2023, didn’t technically prevent them from making the playoffs, it would be dangerous to expect that happy circumstance to repeat in the future. Winning nine more games than your Pythagorean record is not something that can be counted on to continue; Miami had a good bullpen, but bullpen quality actually correlates poorly with one-run record or Pythagorean overperformance.
What this means is that the Marlins need to search for more offensive talent. Though the depth chart image has them safely above replacement at all positions, the offensive output just isn’t very exciting in most of those, with no one hitter on the roster projecting with even a 20% chance of a 140 OPS+. Luis Arraez is terrific, and you’ve got to love such a throwback, but he’ll be hard-pressed to better his .354/.393/.469 line. Just being extraordinarily lucky with the injuries probably doesn’t get the Marlins above 12th or so in the NL in runs scored, and they have to figure out how to replace Jorge Soler’s 2023 performance — which, again, still didn’t suffice to get them out of last place in runs scored in the NL. And none of the prospects who are good possibilities to provide oomph in the majors someday, like Joe Mack, Kemp Alderman, or Jacob Berry, are likely going to have any impact on the lineup this year.
ZiPS is optimistic, however, on Xavier Edwards. While it didn’t come together for him in his small cup of coffee in the majors, cutting nearly two-thirds of your strikeout rate, as he did in the minors, is exceedingly rare, especially since his walk rate improved, too. Contact is especially important for Edwards, since he has the speed to make it matter. I’d be inclined to stick him in center field, bump Jazz Chisholm Jr. to left coming off his turf toe, and see what happens. I don’t think the Marlins will actually do that, which is too bad, because that domino effect would also result in less playing time for Avisaíl García, who has little justifiable reason to be on the roster at all at this point. If I were the Marlins, I’d also be inclined to sign Matt Chapman and stick either Jake Burger or Josh Bell at DH, but I don’t make the decisions for Miami, and they certainly don’t let me spend the money.
Pitchers
And here, we get to the primary reason why the Marlins played some extra baseball in October rather than slumming it with the Nationals and Pirates. It’s a testament to the quality and upside of the rotation that they still have a rotation somewhere around the top five even after losing Sandy Alcantara for 2024 to Tommy John surgery and trading Pablo López before last season. Jesús Luzardo is a legitimate ace-type starter, and Eury Pérez doesn’t need to make a big step forward to join him. Edward Cabrera retains that kind of upside if he can iron out some of those remaining command issues. Braxton Garrett is rapidly building up his Crafty Southpaw© sizzle reel, and Trevor Rogers remains interesting if he can, by some off-chance, stay healthy. And there’s depth, too: Max Meyer is returning from Tommy John surgery, and ZiPS already sees Dax Fulton and Patrick Monteverde as viable emergency fill-ins. (I wouldn’t oversell the chances of Sixto Sánchez starting another game in the majors given that he’s basically lost three years of development time, but I can’t not mention his continual existence, even if it’s more likely he stays in relief.)
ZiPS projects the bullpen to be in the top third of the league, possibly in the top five. Tanner Scott was on my breakouts list last year, so I’m not going to sour on him after he pitches very well, cutting out half his walk rate. ZiPS sees A.J. Puk’s strikeout bump as real given his 15% swinging-strike-against rate and a contact rate falling under 70% (meaning he turns the average hitter into Javier Báez). That gives the Marlins two of the league’s hardest throwing elite lefty relievers, and Andrew Nardi projects nearly as well as them. I’d hate to be facing Miami in the late innings without some right-handed power coming up. Add in Steven Okert, and ZiPS thinks the top four Marlins relievers are all lefties.
The computer isn’t as excited about the righties, but it does like Anthony Maldonado and Anthony Bender and has an unhealthy fixation on Luarbert Arias. The projections are more bearish on relievers like Calvin Faucher and George Soriano. Another righty in the pen might be profitable for the Marlins, but if there’s only so much money available — or, at least, the team is going to pretend that’s the case — I’d much prefer they spend on offense rather than worrying about who their third or fourth righty in the seventh inning is.
So where are the Marlins right now? Probably somewhere around .500, but with a precarious lineup that could use some attention.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Luis Arraez
L
27
2B
602
550
74
174
27
4
7
59
45
39
3
2
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
L
26
CF
439
397
62
99
17
3
19
61
35
122
21
6
Jake Burger
R
28
3B
529
484
65
122
27
2
27
74
31
140
1
1
Xavier Edwards
B
24
2B
491
440
63
125
17
3
4
42
39
59
18
5
Jacob Amaya
R
25
SS
552
494
69
118
22
3
11
48
50
120
4
1
Jesús Sánchez
L
26
RF
457
413
53
104
19
3
18
61
39
116
3
1
Jorge Soler
R
32
RF
530
460
65
110
23
0
27
71
60
137
1
0
Josh Bell
B
31
1B
576
507
59
132
26
1
19
68
62
116
0
1
Nick Fortes
R
27
C
351
316
40
77
13
1
9
37
24
62
4
2
Christian Bethancourt
R
32
C
322
303
43
77
16
0
11
36
15
81
2
1
Jacob Thompson
L
26
RF
384
343
49
85
17
2
12
51
31
87
3
1
Jacob Stallings
R
34
C
312
276
26
64
14
0
5
27
29
73
0
1
Josh Zamora
R
25
SS
379
352
39
88
17
0
5
36
16
62
1
1
Bryan De La Cruz
R
27
LF
555
511
61
137
27
1
17
68
38
125
4
2
Jon Berti
R
34
SS
371
332
45
84
15
2
6
31
33
78
16
5
Vidal Bruján
B
26
2B
427
387
58
97
19
3
7
41
33
80
21
12
Troy Johnston
L
27
1B
541
487
59
123
26
2
13
68
40
116
8
1
Peyton Burdick
R
27
RF
504
443
62
90
20
3
17
62
48
182
8
2
Jordan Groshans
R
24
3B
500
451
53
112
21
0
5
39
46
96
0
1
C.J. Hinojosa
R
29
2B
414
387
44
101
23
1
7
41
21
77
3
2
Tristan Gray
L
28
SS
475
436
52
93
19
2
17
53
30
156
1
2
Austin Allen
L
30
C
326
301
35
70
15
0
12
42
20
84
0
1
Dane Myers
R
28
CF
469
427
57
109
16
2
12
62
30
115
11
3
Yuli Gurriel
R
40
1B
413
375
45
104
24
1
7
38
29
53
4
1
Jose Devers
L
24
SS
384
355
47
88
17
5
3
37
20
69
3
1
Marty Costes
R
28
LF
299
261
34
66
13
2
3
29
27
60
6
2
Jonathan Davis
R
32
CF
278
241
41
53
10
2
4
25
26
73
8
3
Victor Mesa Jr.
L
22
CF
549
508
57
115
24
2
9
54
32
134
9
3
Jorge Alfaro
R
31
C
317
297
26
71
15
1
7
35
12
94
4
1
Avisaíl García
R
33
RF
363
331
35
77
13
1
11
41
24
104
4
1
Brian Miller
L
28
LF
392
358
43
89
15
4
3
36
25
83
16
5
Jerar Encarnación
R
26
RF
487
439
51
94
17
1
17
60
43
189
4
2
Jacob Berry
B
23
3B
453
422
46
99
21
6
7
46
18
108
5
1
Jose Estrada
R
24
C
92
86
8
19
7
0
1
7
4
22
0
1
Will Banfield
R
24
C
443
418
43
90
19
2
10
47
16
124
1
1
Griffin Conine
L
26
RF
459
409
43
79
13
2
16
55
42
191
1
1
Santiago Chávez
R
28
C
198
182
18
33
6
0
1
14
12
64
0
1
Cobie Fletcher-Vance
R
26
3B
368
337
32
76
16
1
2
32
23
80
2
1
Zach Zubia
R
26
DH
336
290
31
60
10
0
8
34
41
114
0
1
Sean Roby
R
25
1B
342
317
37
66
11
1
13
40
21
135
0
1
Osiris Johnson
R
23
CF
333
310
35
66
11
0
7
32
17
105
4
1
Norel González
L
30
RF
332
303
29
71
15
1
7
35
24
83
1
2
Victor Victor Mesa
R
27
LF
339
313
32
72
10
1
2
27
17
62
11
3
Davis Bradshaw
L
26
LF
345
316
35
81
10
3
2
34
16
69
3
4
Paul McIntosh
R
26
C
335
296
39
64
13
1
9
39
31
91
2
2
Angeudis Santos
B
22
LF
220
196
28
40
5
2
3
18
21
69
3
1
Joe Mack
L
21
C
475
436
40
94
11
0
7
41
31
133
0
1
Kyler Castillo
R
26
LF
229
205
18
51
8
1
1
20
19
51
1
2
Cody Morissette
L
24
2B
453
418
49
87
17
1
9
44
25
124
2
2
J.D. Orr
L
27
LF
278
245
33
54
8
2
0
21
27
65
13
5
Ynmanol Mariñez
R
23
3B
372
351
36
71
14
2
5
32
17
124
1
1
Cameron Barstad
L
23
C
246
225
19
44
13
1
4
24
17
104
0
1
Jan Mercado
R
24
C
200
184
16
32
5
1
3
18
12
96
1
1
Bennett Hostetler
R
26
1B
341
306
38
68
13
0
8
40
22
96
3
1
Tanner Allen
L
26
LF
363
337
36
77
9
4
5
32
20
69
3
1
Dalvy Rosario
R
23
CF
446
413
48
89
13
2
5
38
21
139
12
5
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Luis Arraez
602
.316
.369
.418
116
.102
.331
-7
2.5
.341
86
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
439
.249
.313
.451
107
.202
.313
4
2.4
.328
63
Jake Burger
529
.252
.308
.483
113
.231
.300
-3
2.2
.336
73
Xavier Edwards
491
.284
.343
.364
95
.080
.321
4
2.0
.313
61
Jacob Amaya
552
.239
.310
.362
85
.123
.295
4
1.7
.296
57
Jesús Sánchez
457
.252
.322
.443
108
.191
.308
3
1.6
.330
60
Jorge Soler
530
.239
.332
.465
116
.226
.280
-5
1.5
.342
71
Josh Bell
576
.260
.342
.428
111
.168
.304
-1
1.4
.334
75
Nick Fortes
351
.244
.311
.377
89
.133
.278
3
1.4
.303
39
Christian Bethancourt
322
.254
.290
.416
91
.162
.313
3
1.3
.303
37
Jacob Thompson
384
.248
.326
.414
102
.166
.299
4
1.3
.323
47
Jacob Stallings
312
.232
.310
.337
78
.105
.298
5
1.1
.289
29
Josh Zamora
379
.250
.297
.341
75
.091
.291
6
1.0
.282
36
Bryan De La Cruz
555
.268
.319
.425
103
.157
.325
-1
1.0
.321
71
Jon Berti
371
.253
.324
.364
90
.111
.315
-2
1.0
.304
45
Vidal Bruján
427
.251
.315
.370
88
.119
.300
2
1.0
.301
54
Troy Johnston
541
.253
.320
.394
96
.142
.307
4
1.0
.312
64
Peyton Burdick
504
.203
.296
.377
84
.174
.299
8
0.9
.296
52
Jordan Groshans
500
.248
.318
.328
79
.080
.306
4
0.9
.290
47
C.J. Hinojosa
414
.261
.300
.380
86
.119
.310
2
0.8
.295
46
Tristan Gray
475
.213
.272
.383
78
.170
.289
2
0.8
.284
46
Austin Allen
326
.233
.288
.402
87
.169
.283
-2
0.7
.299
35
Dane Myers
469
.255
.314
.386
92
.131
.323
-5
0.7
.307
55
Yuli Gurriel
413
.277
.329
.403
100
.125
.308
0
0.5
.316
51
Jose Devers
384
.248
.298
.349
78
.101
.300
-1
0.4
.285
38
Marty Costes
299
.253
.341
.352
92
.100
.318
0
0.4
.311
33
Jonathan Davis
278
.220
.312
.328
77
.108
.299
0
0.3
.288
27
Victor Mesa Jr.
549
.226
.276
.335
67
.108
.290
6
0.2
.268
50
Jorge Alfaro
317
.239
.281
.367
77
.128
.327
-3
0.2
.282
32
Avisaíl García
363
.233
.295
.378
84
.145
.306
2
0.1
.292
38
Brian Miller
392
.249
.299
.338
75
.089
.316
3
-0.1
.281
41
Jerar Encarnación
487
.214
.287
.374
80
.159
.330
2
-0.1
.289
49
Jacob Berry
453
.235
.278
.363
75
.128
.300
-2
-0.2
.278
44
Jose Estrada
92
.221
.261
.337
63
.116
.286
-1
-0.2
.260
8
Will Banfield
443
.215
.249
.342
61
.127
.282
1
-0.2
.256
36
Griffin Conine
459
.193
.277
.352
72
.159
.312
4
-0.3
.277
40
Santiago Chávez
198
.181
.244
.231
32
.049
.274
4
-0.4
.218
11
Cobie Fletcher-Vance
368
.226
.285
.297
61
.071
.290
1
-0.4
.261
29
Zach Zubia
336
.207
.310
.324
75
.117
.310
0
-0.5
.287
30
Sean Roby
342
.208
.263
.372
72
.164
.314
3
-0.5
.276
31
Osiris Johnson
333
.213
.257
.316
57
.103
.298
1
-0.5
.252
26
Norel González
332
.234
.298
.360
80
.125
.300
-3
-0.6
.289
34
Victor Victor Mesa
339
.230
.276
.288
56
.058
.281
6
-0.6
.252
28
Davis Bradshaw
345
.256
.310
.326
76
.070
.322
-1
-0.6
.283
34
Paul McIntosh
335
.216
.301
.358
81
.142
.281
-13
-0.6
.292
33
Angeudis Santos
220
.204
.283
.296
60
.092
.298
-1
-0.7
.261
17
Joe Mack
475
.216
.274
.289
56
.073
.294
-2
-0.7
.253
35
Kyler Castillo
229
.249
.319
.312
75
.063
.327
-4
-0.7
.284
21
Cody Morissette
453
.208
.259
.318
58
.110
.274
1
-0.7
.254
36
J.D. Orr
278
.220
.304
.269
60
.049
.300
0
-0.7
.264
25
Ynmanol Mariñez
372
.202
.245
.296
48
.094
.297
4
-0.8
.239
26
Cameron Barstad
246
.196
.260
.316
58
.120
.342
-6
-0.8
.255
19
Jan Mercado
200
.174
.240
.261
38
.087
.341
-2
-0.9
.227
12
Bennett Hostetler
341
.222
.295
.343
75
.121
.297
-4
-0.9
.284
32
Tanner Allen
363
.228
.279
.323
65
.095
.274
-4
-1.2
.266
31
Dalvy Rosario
446
.215
.260
.293
52
.077
.312
-4
-1.6
.245
36
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Luis Arraez
.346
.399
.460
137
4.1
.286
.339
.372
99
1.1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
.274
.340
.503
127
3.5
.221
.285
.399
87
1.2
Jake Burger
.277
.334
.541
133
3.5
.226
.285
.427
93
0.8
Xavier Edwards
.314
.373
.401
111
3.1
.258
.317
.328
79
1.0
Jacob Amaya
.267
.336
.407
104
3.0
.214
.284
.320
66
0.4
Jesús Sánchez
.277
.347
.501
126
2.6
.223
.295
.400
90
0.5
Jorge Soler
.263
.356
.520
136
2.7
.214
.306
.411
99
0.4
Josh Bell
.286
.366
.474
127
2.7
.232
.312
.383
91
0.0
Nick Fortes
.283
.348
.431
112
2.4
.212
.281
.324
69
0.4
Christian Bethancourt
.282
.319
.464
112
2.2
.224
.262
.360
71
0.5
Jacob Thompson
.276
.355
.465
123
2.2
.218
.296
.361
83
0.3
Jacob Stallings
.261
.341
.386
99
1.9
.200
.281
.295
61
0.4
Josh Zamora
.275
.324
.386
95
2.0
.217
.268
.297
56
0.1
Bryan De La Cruz
.297
.348
.473
122
2.4
.240
.293
.375
85
-0.2
Jon Berti
.280
.351
.405
107
1.8
.223
.298
.319
72
0.2
Vidal Bruján
.276
.341
.418
106
2.0
.224
.287
.335
71
0.1
Troy Johnston
.280
.347
.436
114
2.3
.227
.293
.348
78
-0.3
Peyton Burdick
.231
.322
.434
104
2.1
.179
.270
.322
65
-0.2
Jordan Groshans
.273
.348
.363
95
1.9
.221
.292
.291
61
-0.2
C.J. Hinojosa
.292
.328
.431
106
1.9
.232
.269
.333
66
-0.2
Tristan Gray
.240
.295
.435
96
1.8
.189
.247
.336
61
-0.3
Austin Allen
.260
.317
.463
108
1.5
.203
.263
.343
65
-0.2
Dane Myers
.289
.344
.434
110
1.8
.231
.286
.340
73
-0.4
Yuli Gurriel
.309
.358
.448
119
1.4
.245
.297
.358
80
-0.6
Jose Devers
.280
.331
.398
98
1.4
.222
.273
.311
60
-0.4
Marty Costes
.281
.366
.398
109
1.0
.229
.314
.311
74
-0.3
Jonathan Davis
.250
.343
.381
99
1.0
.192
.281
.281
57
-0.4
Victor Mesa Jr.
.254
.302
.372
85
1.4
.199
.248
.290
48
-1.1
Jorge Alfaro
.268
.311
.417
97
1.0
.214
.256
.325
60
-0.5
Avisaíl García
.263
.320
.437
104
1.1
.207
.265
.330
65
-0.8
Brian Miller
.277
.324
.387
95
0.8
.221
.269
.301
59
-1.0
Jerar Encarnación
.242
.314
.432
102
1.1
.184
.260
.320
59
-1.3
Jacob Berry
.261
.307
.413
96
1.0
.206
.250
.317
57
-1.2
Jose Estrada
.254
.290
.398
86
0.1
.188
.225
.294
41
-0.4
Will Banfield
.249
.283
.392
82
0.9
.189
.223
.297
41
-1.3
Griffin Conine
.223
.305
.409
92
0.8
.164
.252
.296
50
-1.5
Santiago Chávez
.214
.277
.271
53
0.2
.151
.213
.195
14
-0.8
Cobie Fletcher-Vance
.252
.312
.337
78
0.3
.199
.262
.259
45
-1.2
Zach Zubia
.232
.338
.374
94
0.4
.176
.275
.281
54
-1.4
Sean Roby
.235
.289
.418
91
0.3
.181
.236
.321
53
-1.3
Osiris Johnson
.243
.285
.369
77
0.3
.188
.230
.272
38
-1.3
Norel González
.264
.330
.412
102
0.3
.206
.272
.316
63
-1.3
Victor Victor Mesa
.257
.303
.322
74
0.2
.209
.255
.260
43
-1.2
Davis Bradshaw
.286
.338
.366
93
0.2
.229
.280
.291
59
-1.3
Paul McIntosh
.244
.330
.412
102
0.2
.188
.271
.307
59
-1.5
Angeudis Santos
.237
.314
.347
81
-0.1
.173
.258
.254
42
-1.2
Joe Mack
.246
.307
.341
79
0.6
.183
.245
.255
38
-1.8
Kyler Castillo
.280
.348
.353
93
-0.2
.220
.286
.274
55
-1.3
Cody Morissette
.238
.286
.365
80
0.4
.181
.230
.277
41
-1.8
J.D. Orr
.246
.334
.309
77
-0.1
.195
.278
.237
44
-1.3
Ynmanol Mariñez
.231
.273
.346
68
0.0
.175
.217
.256
30
-1.6
Cameron Barstad
.230
.293
.368
79
-0.2
.167
.231
.276
40
-1.4
Jan Mercado
.205
.272
.317
60
-0.3
.140
.206
.210
16
-1.4
Bennett Hostetler
.253
.323
.395
97
0.0
.198
.266
.301
58
-1.6
Tanner Allen
.255
.308
.366
84
-0.4
.201
.254
.277
48
-2.0
Dalvy Rosario
.242
.284
.332
68
-0.6
.188
.234
.256
36
-2.5
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Luis Arraez
.297
.355
.399
.323
.373
.425
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
.234
.291
.402
.255
.321
.469
Jake Burger
.258
.318
.495
.248
.302
.476
Xavier Edwards
.282
.344
.351
.286
.342
.372
Jacob Amaya
.242
.324
.377
.236
.298
.351
Jesús Sánchez
.239
.301
.398
.257
.329
.460
Jorge Soler
.245
.350
.489
.237
.324
.455
Josh Bell
.258
.343
.424
.261
.342
.430
Nick Fortes
.254
.329
.392
.237
.299
.366
Christian Bethancourt
.263
.309
.421
.249
.278
.413
Jacob Thompson
.237
.317
.398
.252
.329
.420
Jacob Stallings
.234
.318
.351
.231
.305
.330
Josh Zamora
.254
.301
.351
.248
.295
.335
Bryan De La Cruz
.271
.327
.420
.266
.314
.427
Jon Berti
.248
.326
.368
.256
.324
.363
Vidal Bruján
.250
.321
.381
.251
.310
.361
Troy Johnston
.238
.311
.378
.262
.326
.404
Peyton Burdick
.208
.308
.381
.199
.285
.374
Jordan Groshans
.251
.327
.335
.246
.311
.323
C.J. Hinojosa
.269
.313
.396
.254
.289
.366
Tristan Gray
.206
.267
.364
.218
.276
.395
Austin Allen
.237
.297
.376
.231
.284
.413
Dane Myers
.258
.318
.393
.253
.311
.382
Yuli Gurriel
.278
.336
.413
.277
.326
.398
Jose Devers
.239
.291
.349
.252
.302
.350
Marty Costes
.256
.347
.352
.250
.335
.353
Jonathan Davis
.219
.315
.344
.221
.309
.317
Victor Mesa Jr.
.225
.273
.325
.227
.278
.341
Jorge Alfaro
.240
.280
.380
.239
.281
.360
Avisaíl García
.245
.310
.382
.227
.288
.376
Brian Miller
.242
.294
.333
.252
.302
.341
Jerar Encarnación
.218
.302
.383
.211
.276
.367
Jacob Berry
.236
.285
.379
.234
.275
.355
Jose Estrada
.229
.270
.314
.216
.255
.353
Will Banfield
.217
.251
.344
.214
.247
.340
Griffin Conine
.181
.264
.335
.201
.284
.362
Santiago Chávez
.179
.247
.218
.183
.241
.240
Cobie Fletcher-Vance
.229
.291
.307
.222
.280
.287
Zach Zubia
.213
.331
.328
.202
.293
.321
Sean Roby
.210
.271
.385
.207
.257
.362
Osiris Johnson
.217
.271
.326
.210
.246
.309
Norel González
.220
.286
.321
.242
.305
.381
Victor Victor Mesa
.242
.291
.300
.211
.252
.268
Davis Bradshaw
.250
.314
.333
.259
.308
.323
Paul McIntosh
.216
.308
.376
.216
.297
.345
Angeudis Santos
.200
.281
.288
.207
.285
.302
Joe Mack
.203
.264
.280
.220
.278
.292
Kyler Castillo
.258
.333
.323
.241
.306
.304
Cody Morissette
.199
.250
.298
.213
.264
.329
J.D. Orr
.215
.298
.269
.224
.308
.270
Ynmanol Mariñez
.208
.256
.299
.198
.236
.294
Cameron Barstad
.182
.250
.273
.201
.264
.333
Jan Mercado
.173
.239
.259
.175
.241
.262
Bennett Hostetler
.222
.295
.333
.222
.295
.351
Tanner Allen
.216
.273
.284
.234
.282
.340
Dalvy Rosario
.215
.262
.293
.216
.258
.293
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Sandy Alcantara
R
28
11
9
3.53
29
29
191.3
174
75
19
45
172
Jesús Luzardo
L
26
8
9
3.88
28
27
153.0
136
66
20
53
173
Eury Pérez
R
21
7
7
3.63
27
27
124.0
106
50
15
41
137
Braxton Garrett
L
26
7
7
4.02
27
26
136.7
138
61
17
39
125
Trevor Rogers
L
26
6
7
4.06
21
21
102.0
99
46
12
34
103
Edward Cabrera
R
26
7
9
4.41
24
23
112.3
98
55
15
53
116
Tanner Scott
L
29
7
5
3.38
68
0
66.7
52
25
7
28
93
Luis Palacios
L
23
7
11
4.69
24
22
128.7
146
67
18
26
75
Max Meyer
R
25
4
4
4.24
17
17
76.3
74
36
9
33
73
Dax Fulton
L
22
5
7
4.55
20
19
93.0
94
47
11
40
83
Ryan Weathers
L
24
5
9
4.76
28
23
117.3
126
62
15
47
94
Patrick Monteverde
L
26
6
8
4.70
21
21
103.3
111
54
14
39
77
Johnny Cueto
R
38
4
7
4.86
21
19
107.3
128
58
16
28
64
A.J. Puk
L
29
5
5
3.72
54
1
58.0
52
24
8
18
76
Kyle Tyler
R
27
5
9
4.95
23
20
111.0
124
61
15
44
78
Bryan Hoeing
R
27
4
5
4.70
31
14
97.7
107
51
13
28
70
Sixto Sánchez
R
25
4
4
4.43
11
11
63.0
67
31
8
20
52
Devin Smeltzer
L
28
5
8
4.87
26
19
101.7
113
55
15
34
66
Jonathan Bermúdez
L
28
3
6
4.88
19
16
83.0
88
45
11
35
69
Steven Okert
L
32
3
3
3.97
58
1
56.7
47
25
7
22
67
Matt Moore
L
35
3
3
4.32
40
4
58.3
58
28
8
23
55
Andrew Nardi
L
25
4
5
3.90
57
0
57.7
51
25
7
23
67
Daniel Castano
L
29
3
4
4.81
19
10
67.3
75
36
10
22
48
Enmanuel De Jesus
L
27
3
6
5.08
22
17
88.7
97
50
10
40
61
George Soriano
R
25
2
3
4.70
35
9
76.7
75
40
10
36
73
Anthony Maldonado
R
26
5
4
3.78
37
0
47.7
43
20
6
16
54
Matt Andriese
R
34
4
6
4.99
19
13
70.3
86
39
11
17
47
Jeff Lindgren
R
27
4
7
5.16
23
18
90.7
101
52
12
39
54
Anthony Bender
R
29
2
3
4.22
44
1
42.7
38
20
5
16
45
David Robertson
R
39
4
5
4.13
51
0
52.3
48
24
7
22
58
Zach McCambley
R
25
4
6
4.95
23
12
67.3
69
37
9
31
58
Jackson Rose
R
28
2
2
4.43
20
3
42.7
45
21
6
14
37
Luarbert Arias
R
23
3
3
4.15
38
0
56.3
55
26
7
19
51
M.D. Johnson
R
26
4
6
5.30
21
21
93.3
101
55
14
46
66
Paul Campbell
R
28
4
6
5.08
16
9
62.0
68
35
10
25
49
Huascar Brazoban
R
34
3
3
4.31
46
0
56.3
53
27
7
28
62
Sean Nolin
L
34
2
4
5.07
15
11
55.0
66
31
9
18
38
Tyler Eckberg
R
26
2
3
4.42
36
0
59.0
68
29
8
12
41
Chi Chi González
R
32
4
7
5.40
22
19
98.3
121
59
15
28
50
Josh Simpson
L
26
2
2
4.43
31
1
44.7
39
22
6
24
54
JT Chargois
R
33
1
2
4.53
54
3
49.7
47
25
7
22
44
Calvin Faucher
R
28
2
3
4.78
33
4
43.3
46
23
6
22
43
Evan Fitterer
R
24
5
9
5.47
22
22
102.0
113
62
14
56
67
Ryan Jensen
R
26
3
6
5.28
31
9
59.7
62
35
8
35
51
Austin Roberts
R
25
3
4
4.78
40
1
64.0
68
34
8
25
52
Ignacio Feliz
R
24
2
5
5.33
24
5
54.0
54
32
7
32
49
Breidy Encarnación
R
23
1
2
4.64
37
0
64.0
65
33
8
29
53
Cristian Charle
R
24
4
6
4.75
35
0
55.0
59
29
7
20
42
Josan Méndez
R
23
3
3
4.70
37
0
53.7
60
28
6
15
29
Kaleb Ort
R
32
2
3
4.93
40
1
42.0
43
23
6
20
41
Matt Barnes
R
34
2
3
5.05
40
2
35.7
36
20
5
17
35
Archie Bradley
R
31
1
3
5.11
28
1
37.0
41
21
5
12
25
Chandler Jozwiak
L
25
2
2
4.83
42
0
54.0
60
29
7
17
35
Zach King
L
26
4
9
5.64
20
16
75.0
85
47
11
42
53
Andrew McInvale
R
27
1
3
5.28
22
1
30.7
30
18
4
18
30
Matt Pushard
R
26
1
3
4.89
37
0
46.0
49
25
6
18
32
Richard Rodríguez
R
34
1
3
4.88
36
0
51.7
58
28
8
14
30
Dylan Bice
R
26
2
4
5.03
36
1
48.3
52
27
7
24
36
Jake Walters
R
28
2
3
5.69
20
9
61.7
69
39
9
33
41
Ronald Bolaños
R
27
3
7
5.77
19
13
64.0
72
41
9
36
40
Jefry Yan
L
27
2
4
5.22
41
1
50.0
45
29
7
37
60
Adam Laskey
L
26
2
3
5.32
30
1
44.0
49
26
6
24
35
Zack Leban
R
28
1
1
5.45
26
1
36.3
37
22
5
22
31
Will Stewart
L
26
3
7
5.81
22
9
66.7
74
43
9
37
43
Eli Villalobos
R
27
1
3
5.17
41
0
54.0
57
31
8
30
48
Zach Willeman
R
28
1
3
5.72
28
1
39.3
43
25
6
25
30
Johan Quezada
R
29
1
4
5.53
28
0
40.7
44
25
6
26
34
Caleb Wurster
L
25
3
6
5.44
36
0
49.7
50
30
7
31
44
Justin Evans
R
27
2
3
5.68
28
0
38.0
39
24
5
24
34
Brady Puckett
R
28
1
3
5.97
29
0
37.7
43
25
6
25
26
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Sandy Alcantara
191.3
8.1
2.1
0.9
5.7%
22.0%
.285
120
3.56
83
4.1
Jesús Luzardo
153.0
10.2
3.1
1.2
8.2%
26.8%
.296
109
3.85
92
2.6
Eury Pérez
124.0
9.9
3.0
1.1
7.9%
26.4%
.286
117
3.71
86
2.5
Braxton Garrett
136.7
8.2
2.6
1.1
6.7%
21.5%
.306
105
4.10
95
2.1
Trevor Rogers
102.0
9.1
3.0
1.1
7.8%
23.7%
.307
104
3.91
96
1.6
Edward Cabrera
112.3
9.3
4.2
1.2
10.9%
23.8%
.280
96
4.53
104
1.4
Tanner Scott
66.7
12.6
3.8
0.9
10.0%
33.1%
.304
125
3.32
80
1.2
Luis Palacios
128.7
5.2
1.8
1.3
4.7%
13.7%
.299
90
4.65
111
1.2
Max Meyer
76.3
8.6
3.9
1.1
9.8%
21.7%
.301
100
4.25
100
1.0
Dax Fulton
93.0
8.0
3.9
1.1
9.8%
20.2%
.305
93
4.49
107
1.0
Ryan Weathers
117.3
7.2
3.6
1.2
9.1%
18.1%
.308
89
4.62
112
1.0
Patrick Monteverde
103.3
6.7
3.4
1.2
8.6%
16.9%
.301
90
4.80
111
1.0
Johnny Cueto
107.3
5.4
2.3
1.3
6.0%
13.6%
.310
87
4.92
115
0.8
A.J. Puk
58.0
11.8
2.8
1.2
7.3%
31.0%
.317
114
3.57
88
0.8
Kyle Tyler
111.0
6.3
3.6
1.2
8.8%
15.6%
.307
86
4.90
117
0.7
Bryan Hoeing
97.7
6.5
2.6
1.2
6.6%
16.5%
.304
90
4.57
111
0.7
Sixto Sánchez
63.0
7.4
2.9
1.1
7.4%
19.2%
.309
96
4.30
105
0.7
Devin Smeltzer
101.7
5.8
3.0
1.3
7.6%
14.8%
.298
87
5.03
115
0.7
Jonathan Bermúdez
83.0
7.5
3.8
1.2
9.5%
18.6%
.307
87
4.76
115
0.6
Steven Okert
56.7
10.6
3.5
1.1
9.2%
28.2%
.288
107
3.93
94
0.5
Matt Moore
58.3
8.5
3.5
1.2
9.0%
21.6%
.301
98
4.44
102
0.5
Andrew Nardi
57.7
10.5
3.6
1.1
9.4%
27.3%
.301
109
3.91
92
0.5
Daniel Castano
67.3
6.4
2.9
1.3
7.4%
16.2%
.304
88
4.87
114
0.5
Enmanuel De Jesus
88.7
6.2
4.1
1.0
10.0%
15.3%
.305
83
4.97
120
0.5
George Soriano
76.7
8.6
4.2
1.2
10.6%
21.5%
.300
90
4.77
111
0.5
Anthony Maldonado
47.7
10.2
3.0
1.1
7.9%
26.6%
.301
112
3.82
89
0.4
Matt Andriese
70.3
6.0
2.2
1.4
5.5%
15.2%
.322
85
4.80
118
0.4
Jeff Lindgren
90.7
5.4
3.9
1.2
9.6%
13.2%
.297
82
5.27
122
0.4
Anthony Bender
42.7
9.5
3.4
1.1
8.8%
24.7%
.292
100
4.08
100
0.4
David Robertson
52.3
10.0
3.8
1.2
9.6%
25.4%
.299
103
4.21
97
0.4
Zach McCambley
67.3
7.8
4.1
1.2
10.2%
19.0%
.302
86
4.96
117
0.4
Jackson Rose
42.7
7.8
3.0
1.3
7.6%
20.0%
.307
96
4.40
105
0.3
Luarbert Arias
56.3
8.1
3.0
1.1
7.9%
21.3%
.296
102
4.18
98
0.3
M.D. Johnson
93.3
6.4
4.4
1.4
10.8%
15.5%
.296
80
5.53
125
0.3
Paul Campbell
62.0
7.1
3.6
1.5
9.0%
17.7%
.305
83
5.13
120
0.2
Huascar Brazoban
56.3
9.9
4.5
1.1
11.1%
24.5%
.309
98
4.32
102
0.2
Sean Nolin
55.0
6.2
2.9
1.5
7.3%
15.4%
.317
83
5.09
120
0.2
Tyler Eckberg
59.0
6.3
1.8
1.2
4.7%
16.1%
.314
96
4.34
104
0.2
Chi Chi González
98.3
4.6
2.6
1.4
6.4%
11.4%
.309
78
5.20
128
0.2
Josh Simpson
44.7
10.9
4.8
1.2
12.0%
27.0%
.300
96
4.46
105
0.2
JT Chargois
49.7
8.0
4.0
1.3
10.2%
20.5%
.284
93
4.89
107
0.2
Calvin Faucher
43.3
8.9
4.6
1.2
11.0%
21.5%
.323
89
4.66
113
0.1
Evan Fitterer
102.0
5.9
4.9
1.2
11.7%
14.0%
.300
77
5.67
129
0.1
Ryan Jensen
59.7
7.7
5.3
1.2
12.6%
18.4%
.303
80
5.30
125
0.0
Austin Roberts
64.0
7.3
3.5
1.1
8.7%
18.2%
.308
89
4.66
113
0.0
Ignacio Feliz
54.0
8.2
5.3
1.2
12.9%
19.7%
.301
79
5.29
126
0.0
Breidy Encarnación
64.0
7.5
4.1
1.1
10.2%
18.6%
.298
91
4.68
110
0.0
Cristian Charle
55.0
6.9
3.3
1.1
8.2%
17.2%
.304
89
4.64
112
0.0
Josan Méndez
53.7
4.9
2.5
1.0
6.4%
12.4%
.297
90
4.63
111
0.0
Kaleb Ort
42.0
8.8
4.3
1.3
10.6%
21.8%
.311
86
4.80
116
-0.1
Matt Barnes
35.7
8.8
4.3
1.3
10.5%
21.6%
.307
84
4.71
119
-0.1
Archie Bradley
37.0
6.1
2.9
1.2
7.4%
15.4%
.303
83
4.88
121
-0.1
Chandler Jozwiak
54.0
5.8
2.8
1.2
7.1%
14.7%
.301
88
4.81
114
-0.1
Zach King
75.0
6.4
5.0
1.3
12.0%
15.2%
.308
75
5.71
133
-0.1
Andrew McInvale
30.7
8.8
5.3
1.2
12.7%
21.1%
.302
80
4.95
125
-0.1
Matt Pushard
46.0
6.3
3.5
1.2
8.8%
15.6%
.297
87
4.86
116
-0.1
Richard Rodríguez
51.7
5.2
2.4
1.4
6.2%
13.2%
.292
87
5.09
115
-0.1
Dylan Bice
48.3
6.7
4.5
1.3
10.9%
16.4%
.300
84
5.26
119
-0.2
Jake Walters
61.7
6.0
4.8
1.3
11.5%
14.3%
.302
74
5.77
134
-0.2
Ronald Bolaños
64.0
5.6
5.1
1.3
11.9%
13.2%
.300
73
5.85
136
-0.2
Jefry Yan
50.0
10.8
6.7
1.3
15.5%
25.1%
.304
81
5.20
123
-0.2
Adam Laskey
44.0
7.2
4.9
1.2
11.6%
16.9%
.314
80
5.21
126
-0.2
Zack Leban
36.3
7.7
5.4
1.2
13.2%
18.6%
.299
78
5.57
129
-0.3
Will Stewart
66.7
5.8
5.0
1.2
12.0%
13.9%
.300
73
5.88
137
-0.3
Eli Villalobos
54.0
8.0
5.0
1.3
12.0%
19.2%
.308
82
5.24
122
-0.3
Zach Willeman
39.3
6.9
5.7
1.4
13.4%
16.1%
.303
74
5.85
135
-0.4
Johan Quezada
40.7
7.5
5.8
1.3
13.4%
17.5%
.309
77
5.57
131
-0.4
Caleb Wurster
49.7
8.0
5.6
1.3
13.4%
19.0%
.299
78
5.55
128
-0.4
Justin Evans
38.0
8.1
5.7
1.2
13.4%
19.0%
.306
74
5.47
134
-0.4
Brady Puckett
37.7
6.2
6.0
1.4
13.7%
14.2%
.306
71
6.26
141
-0.6
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Sandy Alcantara
.240
.289
.380
.234
.281
.357
5.1
2.9
3.06
4.12
Jesús Luzardo
.209
.269
.320
.241
.312
.417
3.7
1.6
3.38
4.40
Eury Pérez
.224
.304
.395
.227
.280
.356
3.5
1.4
3.06
4.45
Braxton Garrett
.240
.293
.351
.263
.324
.440
2.9
1.2
3.54
4.60
Trevor Rogers
.234
.314
.318
.254
.313
.430
2.2
0.8
3.54
4.71
Edward Cabrera
.245
.336
.399
.215
.310
.384
2.2
0.5
3.85
5.08
Tanner Scott
.186
.283
.291
.222
.310
.370
2.2
0.1
2.51
4.48
Luis Palacios
.294
.333
.441
.275
.314
.458
1.9
0.6
4.18
5.16
Max Meyer
.234
.329
.366
.261
.321
.438
1.5
0.5
3.76
4.91
Dax Fulton
.245
.330
.347
.261
.340
.433
1.6
0.3
4.02
5.30
Ryan Weathers
.250
.321
.386
.277
.345
.453
1.6
0.1
4.27
5.41
Patrick Monteverde
.279
.343
.434
.264
.334
.437
1.5
0.2
4.22
5.35
Johnny Cueto
.289
.342
.469
.291
.332
.474
1.3
0.2
4.38
5.56
A.J. Puk
.203
.272
.311
.248
.315
.436
1.5
-0.1
2.81
5.00
Kyle Tyler
.277
.343
.432
.277
.344
.463
1.4
0.1
4.48
5.51
Bryan Hoeing
.277
.340
.441
.269
.315
.437
1.3
0.1
4.20
5.28
Sixto Sánchez
.268
.331
.439
.266
.317
.414
1.0
0.2
3.93
5.12
Devin Smeltzer
.268
.336
.393
.279
.336
.473
1.2
-0.1
4.43
5.54
Jonathan Bermúdez
.250
.313
.365
.273
.355
.463
1.1
0.0
4.39
5.62
Steven Okert
.228
.299
.342
.216
.312
.388
1.2
-0.2
3.13
5.09
Matt Moore
.271
.338
.424
.247
.319
.418
1.1
-0.2
3.57
5.54
Andrew Nardi
.224
.294
.342
.236
.323
.403
1.0
-0.1
3.22
4.77
Daniel Castano
.270
.320
.449
.279
.342
.459
0.8
0.0
4.31
5.50
Enmanuel De Jesus
.252
.331
.364
.281
.367
.450
0.9
-0.1
4.60
5.67
George Soriano
.273
.370
.460
.230
.321
.373
0.9
0.0
4.18
5.33
Anthony Maldonado
.256
.340
.430
.216
.274
.351
0.9
-0.1
3.05
4.87
Matt Andriese
.289
.333
.484
.301
.343
.485
0.9
-0.1
4.39
5.73
Jeff Lindgren
.291
.379
.469
.262
.327
.417
0.8
-0.2
4.74
5.71
Anthony Bender
.253
.333
.387
.216
.300
.386
0.8
-0.2
3.46
5.29
David Robertson
.224
.309
.357
.250
.331
.442
1.1
-0.5
3.17
5.47
Zach McCambley
.279
.365
.441
.238
.333
.400
0.8
-0.1
4.48
5.54
Jackson Rose
.266
.326
.456
.264
.320
.418
0.7
0.0
3.80
5.22
Luarbert Arias
.257
.321
.416
.244
.305
.395
0.8
-0.2
3.49
4.96
M.D. Johnson
.294
.394
.486
.249
.327
.416
0.7
-0.3
4.89
5.88
Paul Campbell
.279
.355
.475
.268
.333
.441
0.7
-0.2
4.53
5.75
Huascar Brazoban
.248
.342
.436
.239
.328
.368
0.9
-0.4
3.45
5.42
Sean Nolin
.294
.347
.441
.289
.345
.497
0.6
-0.1
4.50
5.79
Tyler Eckberg
.293
.338
.488
.274
.301
.410
0.6
-0.2
3.81
5.08
Chi Chi González
.300
.351
.458
.293
.338
.507
0.7
-0.4
4.95
5.98
Josh Simpson
.200
.324
.283
.245
.344
.455
0.7
-0.3
3.56
5.29
JT Chargois
.243
.364
.419
.246
.313
.415
0.7
-0.4
3.65
5.77
Calvin Faucher
.286
.375
.494
.250
.330
.385
0.4
-0.3
4.15
5.74
Evan Fitterer
.251
.366
.387
.295
.379
.495
0.5
-0.6
5.12
6.09
Ryan Jensen
.269
.380
.472
.256
.353
.388
0.4
-0.4
4.70
5.99
Austin Roberts
.277
.356
.445
.257
.329
.404
0.4
-0.4
4.26
5.38
Ignacio Feliz
.271
.393
.427
.241
.346
.405
0.3
-0.5
4.77
6.05
Breidy Encarnación
.294
.375
.444
.222
.298
.381
0.4
-0.5
4.13
5.30
Cristian Charle
.262
.336
.417
.274
.333
.436
0.4
-0.4
4.13
5.37
Josan Méndez
.284
.339
.422
.270
.320
.426
0.3
-0.4
4.12
5.23
Kaleb Ort
.263
.356
.513
.256
.340
.367
0.3
-0.4
4.24
5.82
Matt Barnes
.241
.353
.431
.265
.333
.422
0.3
-0.5
4.21
6.39
Archie Bradley
.275
.359
.435
.275
.322
.463
0.2
-0.3
4.47
5.90
Chandler Jozwiak
.254
.316
.338
.286
.346
.483
0.2
-0.4
4.27
5.47
Zach King
.274
.375
.432
.282
.377
.474
0.3
-0.7
5.17
6.33
Andrew McInvale
.263
.382
.421
.238
.329
.413
0.1
-0.4
4.64
6.27
Matt Pushard
.264
.337
.414
.271
.336
.448
0.2
-0.4
4.36
5.46
Richard Rodríguez
.268
.321
.474
.286
.336
.446
0.2
-0.5
4.27
5.68
Dylan Bice
.269
.361
.452
.270
.345
.440
0.1
-0.6
4.57
5.76
Jake Walters
.289
.387
.471
.266
.362
.453
0.2
-0.6
5.15
6.34
Ronald Bolaños
.288
.393
.466
.270
.366
.447
0.2
-0.7
5.26
6.49
Jefry Yan
.200
.342
.323
.252
.385
.441
0.3
-0.7
4.32
6.18
Adam Laskey
.273
.365
.382
.276
.366
.472
0.1
-0.6
4.57
6.04
Zack Leban
.261
.386
.478
.257
.364
.392
0.0
-0.7
4.86
6.44
Will Stewart
.255
.366
.362
.286
.391
.497
0.1
-0.7
5.29
6.49
Eli Villalobos
.265
.371
.408
.265
.351
.470
0.1
-0.8
4.55
6.10
Zach Willeman
.284
.384
.473
.262
.376
.440
-0.1
-0.8
5.09
6.79
Johan Quezada
.296
.405
.521
.250
.352
.391
0.0
-0.8
4.83
6.42
Caleb Wurster
.246
.359
.369
.262
.378
.454
-0.1
-0.9
4.78
6.33
Justin Evans
.239
.379
.380
.278
.376
.468
-0.1
-0.8
5.01
6.51
Brady Puckett
.314
.422
.529
.253
.370
.422
-0.3
-1.0
5.29
6.95
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.