For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Batters
Even after committing something in the neighborhood of a billion dollars to bring in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, inspiring the chattering classes to bemoan the super team that’s buying a World Series — as if that would be possible in a sport as volatile in baseball — if you look at the Dodgers depth chart, you see an awesome team, but a rather ordinary awesome team. The Dodgers are solid everywhere, but when looking at the Braves, the natural comparison, they’re short in the projections in terms of their best player (Ronald Acuña Jr. practically laps the field in ZiPS), and the computer likes Austin Riley a lot better than the combination of Max Muncy and Miguel Vargas.
The weakest spot is likely left field, even with the addition of Teoscar Hernández, but it’s better than it looks. In the original version of this depth chart, left field was listed at 1.4 WAR rather than the current 1.8, but the total gain, once you calculate the domino effect of how the other positions change, combines for nearly a full win. Chris Taylor was an adequate stopgap, but the offensive workload of a corner outfielder is quite heavy and his .239/.326/.412 line over the last three years is not really what you want to see out there. In any case, one of the best things about Taylor is his versatility, and just sticking him in an outfield corner and calling it a day would be a bit like buying a Swiss army knife just to use the nail file. Signing Hernández makes it easier to make use of Taylor’s versatility and frees up Margot for more time in right field, with Mookie Betts available more often at second base. Hernández’s $20.4 million AAV is a bit steep in terms of rough $/WAR, but it’s hard to really overpay anyone on a one-year deal. Plus, the Dodgers need certainty more than dice rolls, and only $15 million of the deal is in 2024 salary, with the rest deferred.
You might be a bit disappointed with Ohtani’s projection as a DH, but it’s important to remember that his 180 wRC+ in 2023 can’t be assumed to be a baseline quite yet. As magical as he is, all players, from metahuman to Bill Bergen, are subject to the whims of the Roman god Mediorus, the deity of scales and balance and regression toward the mean, who I may have also just made up this minute.
Elsewhere, there are no real surprises. Betts projects well as a second baseman because, well, he’d project well doing anything in life, and Freddie Freeman and Will Smith receive the expected top-notch forecasts. ZiPS is a little cool on Gavin Lux in light of his lost 2023, but I can hardly quibble with that.
Pitchers
There has been quite a bit of upheaval here, more than just the additions of Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, and the eventual one of Ohtani. None of the pitchers in the rotation graphic last year return to the Dodgers in 2024 (remember, Tony Gonsolin is out with Tommy John surgery). It’s especially sad to see Clayton Kershaw no longer listed here, as he’s unsigned and likely to miss a huge chunk of the season after surgery, and there’s still a chance he decides to hang it up. Whether or not The Claw’s ever again in Dodger Blue — Game 1 of the NLDS is a bad place to leave it — he’s got my Hall of Fame vote.
Yamamoto’s projection may not seem particularly aggressive, but that’s in large part because projection systems know the attrition rate of pitchers. ZiPS has only given out three four-WAR projections for pitchers, and it doesn’t yet know that one of those hurlers (Sandy Alcantara) is already out for the season. Yamamoto does show up on the depth chart graphic past this threshold, but ZiPS tends to be more suspicious of general pitcher health than our depth charts. If Yamamoto isn’t a good bet to be a top starter, than very few pitchers are, whether they play in the US or Japan. Ohtani obviously won’t meet the pitching projection listed in the table below this season; it’s just there for the curiosity value.
There’s certainly some risk with the Dodgers. They have a lot of talented arms, but they have very little certainty in terms of who will be available, when, and for how long. If they manage to get five of Yamamoto, Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Walker Buehler, Gavin Stone, and Emmet Sheehan all in the rotation at the same time, this is a very dangerous unit. The Dodgers have been happy to assemble rotations on the fly, but while that has worked out in recent years, it’s no guarantee going forward.
ZiPS isn’t as high on the ‘pen as Steamer is. Joe Kelly’s projection is one of the biggest sources of disagreement between the two projection systems when it comes to pitchers. ZiPS sees a few warning signs, such as the occasional spikes in his walk rate and the fact that he’s entering his late 30s. It’ll be interesting to see which system is right, but I’m personally closer to Steamer than ZiPS on this one.
ZiPS does like the quartet of Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, and Alex Vesia, who will get most of the rest of the high-leverage innings. The computer isn’t in on Yency Almonte, but then again, Steamer’s not particularly enthralled either.
Right now, ZiPS sees the Dodgers as the second-best team in baseball, behind the Braves. But they’re not in different tiers; it’s not a 90/10 probability, but something more along the lines of 60/40. Many writers and teams have made the mistake of underestimating them in spots where they don’t look deep in the past. The Dodgers aren’t just a dangerous team, but a creative dangerous team, one with a shockingly good record of turning straw into gold, making them a deadly foe.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Mookie Betts
R
31
2B
649
550
112
153
33
2
31
100
86
101
12
3
Freddie Freeman
L
34
1B
664
578
109
173
39
2
25
94
73
107
14
1
Will Smith
R
29
C
555
471
74
122
24
2
21
78
61
94
2
1
Shohei Ohtani
L
29
DH
615
528
91
137
27
5
38
122
80
149
17
7
James Outman
L
27
CF
578
502
85
123
22
4
23
81
61
183
12
3
Michael Busch
L
26
3B
564
497
80
121
28
2
24
88
53
151
3
1
Max Muncy
L
33
3B
548
458
80
98
19
1
27
78
79
140
1
1
Teoscar Hernández
R
31
RF
614
566
78
149
26
1
30
107
37
173
8
3
Miguel Vargas
R
24
2B
591
522
82
132
29
3
17
74
57
118
8
2
Austin Gauthier
R
25
3B
533
460
74
110
21
4
7
53
64
114
8
3
Miguel Rojas
R
35
SS
429
394
43
98
21
1
6
44
26
53
8
3
Amed Rosario
R
28
SS
584
552
73
147
25
6
11
74
26
104
14
2
Dalton Rushing
L
23
C
369
310
44
67
18
1
12
52
44
108
1
1
Kolten Wong
L
33
2B
385
341
48
84
18
2
9
49
30
71
8
4
Trey Sweeney
L
24
SS
474
424
58
92
17
3
11
58
43
116
11
4
Gavin Lux
L
26
2B
405
363
56
91
15
4
8
43
39
86
5
2
Andy Pages
R
23
CF
464
405
53
89
23
2
16
61
43
140
5
3
J.D. Martinez
R
36
DH
494
445
60
109
27
1
22
78
41
141
1
1
Taylor Young
R
25
2B
511
447
57
95
16
4
5
48
51
129
27
3
Jason Heyward
L
34
RF
339
305
41
75
17
1
10
39
30
65
3
1
Chris Taylor
R
33
LF
428
376
54
87
19
2
13
52
45
137
12
2
Manuel Margot
R
29
CF
391
360
45
95
19
2
8
49
26
63
10
4
Enrique Hernández
R
32
SS
474
427
57
98
24
1
12
57
37
96
2
1
Drew Avans
L
28
CF
516
461
71
105
20
4
8
52
47
140
17
5
Óscar Mercado
R
29
CF
392
357
47
82
19
2
10
54
26
88
16
4
Jake Marisnick
R
33
CF
231
210
23
47
11
3
5
29
13
68
7
3
Austin Barnes
R
34
C
228
201
25
43
8
0
4
20
22
50
2
1
Griffin Lockwood-Powell
R
26
1B
381
333
41
72
18
1
11
46
39
107
0
1
David Peralta
L
36
LF
410
378
40
94
22
3
10
53
26
81
2
1
Chris Newell
L
23
CF
376
339
48
70
15
2
16
51
35
139
7
6
David Dahl
L
30
RF
346
320
41
78
20
1
9
45
22
79
2
1
Bryson Brigman
R
29
SS
374
342
38
82
14
2
4
42
24
76
5
3
Yeiner Fernandez
R
21
C
450
407
48
99
14
2
6
44
32
74
2
1
Steven Duggar
L
30
LF
309
277
39
56
11
1
8
34
29
118
7
1
Patrick Mazeika
L
30
C
266
243
22
56
12
0
4
29
15
46
0
1
Ryan Ward
L
26
LF
551
507
67
112
21
3
20
69
38
163
6
3
Justin Yurchak
L
27
1B
375
335
42
86
15
1
6
40
34
75
1
1
Hunter Feduccia
L
27
C
359
323
42
73
15
1
10
40
34
92
0
1
Alex Freeland
B
22
SS
471
424
48
86
14
2
9
47
39
162
17
5
Diego Cartaya
R
22
C
431
387
50
78
16
0
16
57
32
145
0
1
Pat Valaika
R
31
1B
348
322
34
70
12
0
8
37
22
92
1
1
Wladimir Chalo
R
24
C
148
136
11
25
5
0
2
12
8
53
0
1
Kody Hoese
R
26
3B
367
343
31
76
12
2
6
35
17
91
1
1
Imanol Vargas
L
26
1B
477
424
50
86
18
1
16
57
48
188
1
1
David Freitas 프레이타스
R
35
1B
137
123
13
29
5
0
3
16
11
30
0
1
Luis Yanel Diaz
R
24
3B
407
378
47
77
13
3
9
45
22
154
13
6
Hamlet Marte
R
30
C
129
118
11
21
3
0
2
11
9
48
1
1
Ismael Alcantara
R
25
RF
387
354
42
72
9
3
6
39
22
126
9
6
Josh Stowers
R
27
LF
359
326
38
61
14
2
8
40
24
124
10
3
Brandon Lewis
R
25
1B
411
383
42
76
16
0
14
50
22
143
1
1
Kenneth Betancourt
R
24
2B
383
359
39
82
15
0
2
30
17
80
6
2
Lolo Sanchez
R
25
LF
365
321
39
68
12
0
5
40
29
70
6
4
Julio Carrion
R
25
RF
229
208
22
37
7
0
4
24
14
97
1
1
Damon Keith
R
24
RF
466
421
49
83
19
2
9
48
38
175
2
2
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Mookie Betts
649
.278
.381
.515
141
.236
.292
-3
5.4
.382
111
Freddie Freeman
664
.299
.384
.503
139
.204
.332
0
4.3
.377
115
Will Smith
555
.259
.355
.452
118
.193
.284
5
4.2
.348
76
Shohei Ohtani
615
.259
.359
.545
142
.286
.290
0
3.7
.374
110
James Outman
578
.245
.337
.442
110
.197
.338
3
3.3
.338
79
Michael Busch
564
.243
.326
.453
109
.209
.301
-2
2.5
.336
74
Max Muncy
548
.214
.336
.437
108
.223
.244
-5
2.0
.335
68
Teoscar Hernández
614
.263
.314
.472
110
.208
.328
-2
1.8
.335
87
Miguel Vargas
591
.253
.331
.418
102
.165
.297
-7
1.8
.325
74
Austin Gauthier
533
.239
.336
.348
87
.109
.304
1
1.4
.307
57
Miguel Rojas
429
.249
.301
.353
78
.104
.275
6
1.3
.287
45
Amed Rosario
584
.266
.301
.393
87
.127
.311
-5
1.3
.301
69
Dalton Rushing
369
.216
.336
.397
99
.181
.289
-6
1.2
.325
42
Kolten Wong
385
.246
.323
.390
93
.144
.287
0
1.1
.312
46
Trey Sweeney
474
.217
.297
.349
75
.132
.273
4
1.1
.287
48
Gavin Lux
405
.251
.323
.380
91
.129
.309
0
1.1
.309
46
Andy Pages
464
.220
.310
.405
93
.185
.293
-2
1.0
.310
53
J.D. Martinez
494
.245
.310
.458
106
.213
.309
0
1.0
.327
64
Taylor Young
511
.213
.305
.300
66
.087
.288
7
1.0
.275
48
Jason Heyward
339
.246
.319
.407
96
.161
.283
4
1.0
.315
41
Chris Taylor
428
.231
.320
.396
94
.165
.327
2
0.9
.313
51
Manuel Margot
391
.264
.315
.394
92
.131
.301
-3
0.8
.308
48
Enrique Hernández
474
.230
.295
.375
81
.145
.270
-3
0.6
.292
48
Drew Avans
516
.228
.304
.341
75
.113
.310
1
0.6
.287
53
Óscar Mercado
392
.230
.292
.378
81
.148
.278
0
0.6
.292
44
Jake Marisnick
231
.224
.287
.376
79
.152
.307
3
0.5
.289
25
Austin Barnes
228
.214
.300
.313
68
.100
.265
3
0.5
.277
20
Griffin Lockwood-Powell
381
.216
.307
.375
85
.159
.284
4
0.4
.301
39
David Peralta
410
.249
.298
.402
88
.153
.293
2
0.3
.300
46
Chris Newell
376
.206
.279
.404
83
.198
.293
-2
0.3
.295
42
David Dahl
346
.244
.292
.397
85
.153
.297
2
0.2
.297
38
Bryson Brigman
374
.240
.298
.327
70
.088
.298
-1
0.1
.277
36
Yeiner Fernandez
450
.243
.307
.332
74
.088
.284
-6
0.1
.284
42
Steven Duggar
309
.202
.282
.336
67
.134
.318
4
-0.1
.273
28
Patrick Mazeika
266
.230
.287
.329
67
.099
.269
-3
-0.1
.273
23
Ryan Ward
551
.221
.279
.393
80
.172
.284
2
-0.2
.290
58
Justin Yurchak
375
.257
.328
.361
88
.104
.315
-3
-0.2
.306
40
Hunter Feduccia
359
.226
.298
.372
81
.146
.285
-11
-0.3
.294
36
Alex Freeland
471
.203
.276
.309
59
.106
.304
-1
-0.4
.260
42
Diego Cartaya
431
.202
.278
.367
74
.165
.274
-11
-0.5
.282
40
Pat Valaika
348
.217
.267
.329
61
.112
.279
6
-0.6
.262
29
Wladimir Chalo
148
.184
.243
.265
39
.081
.284
-1
-0.6
.229
9
Kody Hoese
367
.222
.262
.321
58
.099
.285
0
-0.7
.255
29
Imanol Vargas
477
.203
.287
.363
76
.160
.318
0
-0.7
.285
45
David Freitas
137
.236
.299
.350
76
.114
.289
-6
-0.8
.286
13
Luis Yanel Diaz
407
.204
.256
.325
57
.122
.316
0
-0.8
.255
37
Hamlet Marte
129
.178
.240
.254
35
.076
.279
-4
-0.9
.224
8
Ismael Alcantara
387
.203
.261
.297
52
.093
.297
7
-0.9
.249
32
Josh Stowers
359
.187
.254
.316
54
.129
.273
3
-0.9
.252
29
Brandon Lewis
411
.198
.251
.350
61
.151
.274
4
-1.0
.261
34
Kenneth Betancourt
383
.228
.264
.287
50
.058
.289
-1
-1.1
.244
29
Lolo Sanchez
365
.212
.288
.296
60
.084
.256
-3
-1.3
.264
30
Julio Carrion
229
.178
.249
.269
41
.091
.308
-3
-1.5
.235
15
Damon Keith
466
.197
.273
.316
60
.119
.312
-3
-1.6
.263
37
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Mookie Betts
.299
.407
.575
160
6.9
.254
.352
.463
120
3.7
Freddie Freeman
.322
.406
.555
156
5.7
.275
.360
.457
121
2.7
Will Smith
.282
.379
.514
138
5.6
.230
.329
.404
99
2.9
Shohei Ohtani
.281
.386
.617
165
5.4
.233
.333
.485
120
2.0
James Outman
.269
.364
.500
130
4.7
.219
.312
.395
92
2.0
Michael Busch
.266
.350
.512
128
3.8
.221
.302
.398
91
1.3
Max Muncy
.238
.359
.492
127
3.3
.191
.312
.370
90
0.8
Miguel Vargas
.278
.358
.471
122
3.3
.231
.310
.374
87
0.6
Austin Gauthier
.262
.360
.392
103
2.5
.213
.304
.307
68
0.1
Teoscar Hernández
.288
.340
.520
129
3.3
.237
.288
.420
89
0.1
Miguel Rojas
.274
.326
.391
93
2.1
.220
.276
.312
61
0.3
Amed Rosario
.294
.327
.436
105
2.6
.240
.274
.348
69
-0.2
Dalton Rushing
.247
.367
.465
124
2.3
.186
.308
.341
77
0.3
Kolten Wong
.273
.348
.435
110
2.0
.217
.295
.340
73
0.2
Trey Sweeney
.241
.321
.396
92
2.1
.193
.273
.308
58
0.1
Gavin Lux
.277
.351
.423
109
2.0
.224
.295
.334
72
0.1
Andy Pages
.246
.336
.460
113
2.2
.194
.286
.348
72
-0.2
J.D. Martinez
.272
.335
.514
127
2.3
.219
.286
.402
87
-0.2
Taylor Young
.237
.330
.343
84
2.1
.187
.284
.265
52
0.1
Jason Heyward
.275
.351
.470
118
1.9
.217
.292
.352
74
0.1
Chris Taylor
.255
.343
.443
112
1.8
.205
.290
.338
75
-0.1
Manuel Margot
.291
.343
.438
109
1.6
.240
.290
.350
75
-0.1
Enrique Hernández
.254
.324
.425
100
1.7
.202
.271
.329
62
-0.5
Drew Avans
.253
.325
.374
89
1.6
.201
.275
.292
55
-0.7
Óscar Mercado
.259
.319
.434
102
1.6
.204
.263
.325
60
-0.4
Jake Marisnick
.253
.318
.432
101
1.2
.197
.260
.322
59
0.0
Austin Barnes
.240
.330
.363
85
1.0
.182
.270
.268
48
-0.1
Griffin Lockwood-Powell
.244
.334
.422
103
1.3
.190
.279
.333
68
-0.5
David Peralta
.278
.325
.450
109
1.4
.222
.268
.355
69
-0.7
Chris Newell
.231
.304
.463
103
1.2
.181
.255
.350
64
-0.6
David Dahl
.275
.322
.440
103
1.1
.220
.267
.350
68
-0.5
Bryson Brigman
.268
.323
.365
88
0.9
.212
.268
.284
53
-0.7
Yeiner Fernandez
.271
.335
.378
94
1.2
.219
.278
.295
57
-1.0
Steven Duggar
.233
.315
.396
90
0.8
.176
.249
.294
48
-0.8
Patrick Mazeika
.268
.324
.385
91
0.7
.197
.254
.282
47
-0.8
Ryan Ward
.249
.303
.451
101
1.2
.197
.255
.341
61
-1.6
Justin Yurchak
.282
.355
.398
104
0.5
.231
.303
.320
71
-1.0
Hunter Feduccia
.256
.327
.425
101
0.6
.201
.273
.314
60
-1.2
Alex Freeland
.226
.302
.358
78
0.7
.177
.252
.263
41
-1.5
Diego Cartaya
.233
.310
.431
98
0.8
.174
.248
.317
55
-1.5
Pat Valaika
.246
.296
.377
80
0.3
.192
.242
.287
45
-1.3
Wladimir Chalo
.212
.271
.301
55
-0.2
.155
.214
.219
19
-0.9
Kody Hoese
.245
.287
.371
75
0.1
.196
.237
.283
40
-1.5
Imanol Vargas
.227
.313
.415
93
0.4
.174
.262
.314
55
-1.9
David Freitas
.271
.328
.402
97
-0.5
.205
.272
.299
56
-1.2
Luis Yanel Diaz
.231
.281
.382
77
0.3
.177
.228
.278
37
-1.8
Hamlet Marte
.210
.274
.311
59
-0.5
.153
.212
.219
19
-1.2
Ismael Alcantara
.235
.289
.339
70
0.0
.181
.239
.258
37
-1.5
Josh Stowers
.213
.283
.368
75
0.0
.164
.232
.275
38
-1.6
Brandon Lewis
.227
.278
.393
80
0.0
.173
.225
.298
42
-2.0
Kenneth Betancourt
.255
.291
.324
66
-0.3
.207
.239
.256
36
-1.9
Lolo Sanchez
.239
.313
.337
76
-0.6
.186
.260
.260
44
-2.1
Julio Carrion
.204
.275
.320
60
-0.9
.149
.220
.225
23
-2.0
Damon Keith
.223
.300
.362
79
-0.5
.172
.248
.274
43
-2.7
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Mookie Betts
.280
.390
.529
.277
.377
.509
Freddie Freeman
.284
.365
.477
.306
.392
.515
Will Smith
.259
.358
.456
.259
.353
.450
Shohei Ohtani
.248
.348
.503
.264
.364
.564
James Outman
.236
.329
.424
.251
.343
.453
Michael Busch
.232
.318
.425
.252
.332
.472
Max Muncy
.210
.327
.411
.216
.339
.446
Teoscar Hernández
.268
.320
.486
.261
.312
.465
Miguel Vargas
.262
.344
.451
.246
.319
.389
Austin Gauthier
.243
.349
.359
.237
.327
.341
Miguel Rojas
.254
.312
.357
.246
.297
.351
Amed Rosario
.279
.319
.425
.260
.293
.378
Dalton Rushing
.216
.340
.375
.216
.335
.405
Kolten Wong
.235
.308
.346
.250
.328
.404
Trey Sweeney
.207
.287
.326
.221
.302
.360
Gavin Lux
.237
.306
.351
.256
.330
.391
Andy Pages
.221
.315
.407
.219
.306
.403
J.D. Martinez
.256
.331
.481
.241
.301
.449
Taylor Young
.211
.313
.307
.214
.301
.295
Jason Heyward
.235
.303
.358
.250
.324
.424
Chris Taylor
.231
.325
.410
.231
.318
.388
Manuel Margot
.272
.324
.416
.260
.311
.383
Enrique Hernández
.237
.311
.385
.225
.285
.368
Drew Avans
.217
.292
.313
.234
.310
.356
Óscar Mercado
.236
.302
.389
.225
.284
.371
Jake Marisnick
.229
.297
.386
.220
.281
.370
Austin Barnes
.213
.308
.325
.215
.294
.306
Griffin Lockwood-Powell
.216
.317
.368
.216
.301
.380
David Peralta
.227
.281
.364
.255
.303
.414
Chris Newell
.200
.267
.389
.209
.284
.410
David Dahl
.230
.271
.350
.250
.301
.418
Bryson Brigman
.241
.302
.331
.239
.293
.324
Yeiner Fernandez
.248
.317
.333
.240
.300
.331
Steven Duggar
.195
.279
.312
.205
.283
.345
Patrick Mazeika
.225
.284
.300
.233
.288
.344
Ryan Ward
.212
.270
.375
.226
.285
.402
Justin Yurchak
.244
.317
.331
.264
.335
.380
Hunter Feduccia
.216
.281
.336
.232
.307
.391
Alex Freeland
.197
.279
.307
.206
.274
.310
Diego Cartaya
.201
.281
.377
.202
.277
.360
Pat Valaika
.223
.280
.345
.213
.257
.316
Wladimir Chalo
.183
.246
.267
.184
.241
.263
Kody Hoese
.222
.265
.313
.221
.259
.327
Imanol Vargas
.188
.273
.316
.210
.294
.385
David Freitas
.241
.311
.333
.232
.289
.362
Luis Yanel Diaz
.208
.266
.346
.201
.248
.311
Hamlet Marte
.184
.245
.265
.174
.237
.246
Ismael Alcantara
.204
.269
.320
.203
.256
.280
Josh Stowers
.189
.262
.324
.185
.247
.309
Brandon Lewis
.196
.254
.363
.200
.248
.340
Kenneth Betancourt
.230
.268
.291
.227
.261
.284
Lolo Sanchez
.213
.296
.291
.211
.281
.300
Julio Carrion
.183
.262
.280
.174
.238
.261
Damon Keith
.202
.291
.333
.194
.260
.304
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
R
25
14
7
3.52
26
26
171.3
130
67
22
35
167
Shohei Ohtani
R
29
11
5
3.29
24
24
139.3
109
51
18
45
157
Walker Buehler
R
29
10
6
3.56
25
25
154.3
134
61
19
37
150
Julio Urías
L
27
13
8
3.70
27
26
146.0
129
60
19
31
139
Bobby Miller
R
25
11
6
3.74
26
26
137.3
119
57
14
40
128
Tyler Glasnow
R
30
10
5
3.43
22
22
118.0
97
45
16
37
148
Clayton Kershaw
L
36
10
6
3.46
22
21
114.3
103
44
16
28
115
Tony Gonsolin
R
30
7
6
4.26
21
21
105.7
94
50
15
36
88
Gavin Stone
R
25
6
5
4.46
26
21
115.0
111
57
16
41
115
Emmet Sheehan
R
24
6
4
4.35
25
19
101.3
86
49
14
45
111
Dustin May
R
26
4
2
3.72
12
11
55.7
46
23
7
18
57
William Cuevas 쿠에바스
R
33
7
6
4.76
24
22
126.7
136
67
23
34
102
Michael Grove
R
27
3
2
4.46
21
16
78.7
77
39
12
28
82
Landon Knack
R
26
4
3
4.48
20
20
82.3
83
41
11
28
68
Kyle Hurt
R
26
4
4
4.44
24
15
77.0
65
38
11
39
95
Nick Frasso
R
25
5
5
4.58
25
25
90.3
90
46
13
29
78
Brusdar Graterol
R
25
4
2
3.69
62
1
61.0
57
25
7
15
49
Evan Phillips
R
29
4
2
3.51
57
0
56.3
47
22
8
18
64
Caleb Ferguson
L
27
6
3
3.88
63
6
58.0
52
25
7
21
63
Ryan Yarbrough
L
32
7
6
4.67
24
13
98.3
103
51
16
21
81
River Ryan
R
25
4
3
4.77
24
22
88.7
88
47
13
39
76
Alex Vesia
L
28
5
3
3.86
63
1
60.7
49
26
9
24
78
Ricky Vanasco
R
25
3
3
4.66
24
12
56.0
54
29
9
31
58
Ryan Brasier
R
36
2
1
4.15
52
0
52.0
47
24
7
17
45
J.P. Feyereisen
R
31
4
3
4.34
42
1
45.7
40
22
8
20
49
Blake Treinen
R
36
4
3
4.12
45
0
43.7
40
20
6
16
43
Shelby Miller
R
33
2
2
4.37
37
4
45.3
41
22
7
20
46
Ben Casparius
R
25
5
5
5.15
23
18
87.3
90
50
14
45
74
Daniel Hudson
R
37
3
2
4.18
30
0
28.0
25
13
5
11
34
Eduardo Salazar
R
26
4
4
5.11
31
11
81.0
86
46
12
36
59
Joe Kelly
R
36
3
2
4.46
38
0
34.3
29
17
5
17
44
John Rooney
L
27
4
5
4.91
35
6
66.0
67
36
10
29
56
Carlo Reyes
R
25
2
2
4.85
29
3
42.7
44
23
7
19
34
Robbie Erlin
L
33
2
3
5.37
17
13
65.3
76
39
11
24
45
Yency Almonte
R
30
2
2
4.53
44
0
45.7
39
23
6
20
50
Mark Washington
R
28
3
2
4.80
32
2
45.0
45
24
7
19
38
Kevin Gowdy
R
26
3
3
5.12
25
6
51.0
55
29
8
23
38
Gus Varland
R
27
3
3
4.89
41
4
53.3
53
29
8
25
51
Kendall Williams
R
23
5
6
5.46
20
18
84.0
91
51
13
43
53
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr
R
26
7
7
5.28
23
10
87.0
94
51
13
35
59
Aaron Ochsenbein
R
28
2
2
4.79
28
1
35.7
36
19
6
15
32
Tyler Cyr
R
31
2
2
4.67
32
0
34.7
32
18
5
19
38
Mike Montgomery
L
34
3
4
5.61
16
13
61.0
69
38
10
33
43
Alec Gamboa
L
27
5
6
5.24
30
5
67.0
70
39
10
37
52
Ken Giles
R
33
1
1
5.40
27
2
26.7
25
16
5
18
32
Braydon Fisher
R
23
5
4
4.87
44
1
57.3
51
31
8
37
61
Keegan Curtis
R
28
3
2
5.29
22
1
34.0
36
20
5
15
25
Trevor Bettencourt
R
29
3
2
4.89
37
1
49.7
54
27
8
20
37
Zack Burdi
R
29
0
1
5.16
19
0
22.7
23
13
4
12
23
Ryan Sherriff
L
34
2
3
5.40
28
0
26.7
27
16
4
14
25
James Jones
L
35
1
2
5.96
19
2
22.7
24
15
4
14
19
Jack Little
R
26
1
1
6.10
19
1
20.7
23
14
4
12
14
Jimmy Nelson
R
35
1
1
6.15
24
2
26.3
25
18
5
22
30
Jake Reed
R
31
2
2
5.50
30
0
36.0
38
22
6
16
30
Aldry Acosta
R
24
3
4
5.48
35
0
44.3
50
27
7
19
25
Robbie Peto
R
25
3
3
5.90
23
8
68.7
76
45
12
41
47
Ben Harris
L
24
2
3
5.56
42
1
45.3
38
28
7
40
55
Antonio Knowles
R
24
3
4
5.55
42
0
47.0
45
29
7
32
46
Ryan Sublette
R
25
3
3
5.61
38
1
43.3
41
27
7
34
44
Jake Pilarski
R
26
1
2
6.03
33
0
37.3
40
25
6
26
28
Tanner Dodson
R
27
4
5
5.75
41
0
51.7
58
33
8
33
35
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
171.3
8.8
1.8
1.2
5.2%
24.7%
.244
118
3.57
85
3.8
Shohei Ohtani
139.3
10.1
2.9
1.2
7.8%
27.3%
.265
129
3.82
78
3.1
Walker Buehler
154.3
8.7
2.2
1.1
5.9%
23.9%
.276
119
3.73
84
3.0
Julio Urías
146.0
8.6
1.9
1.2
5.3%
23.6%
.276
115
3.80
87
2.7
Bobby Miller
137.3
8.4
2.6
0.9
7.0%
22.4%
.277
114
3.74
88
2.5
Tyler Glasnow
118.0
11.3
2.8
1.2
7.5%
30.1%
.289
124
3.45
81
2.5
Clayton Kershaw
114.3
9.1
2.2
1.3
6.0%
24.5%
.283
122
3.85
82
2.4
Tony Gonsolin
105.7
7.5
3.1
1.3
8.1%
19.9%
.263
100
4.57
100
1.3
Gavin Stone
115.0
9.0
3.2
1.3
8.3%
23.3%
.300
95
4.19
105
1.2
Emmet Sheehan
101.3
9.9
4.0
1.2
10.5%
25.8%
.279
97
4.37
103
1.2
Dustin May
55.7
9.2
2.9
1.1
7.9%
25.0%
.269
114
4.03
88
1.0
William Cuevas
126.7
7.2
2.4
1.6
6.3%
18.8%
.296
89
4.93
112
1.0
Michael Grove
78.7
9.4
3.2
1.4
8.2%
23.9%
.304
95
4.30
105
0.8
Landon Knack
82.3
7.4
3.1
1.2
7.9%
19.3%
.294
95
4.43
106
0.8
Kyle Hurt
77.0
11.1
4.6
1.3
11.5%
27.9%
.292
95
4.36
105
0.8
Nick Frasso
90.3
7.8
2.9
1.3
7.5%
20.2%
.293
93
4.69
108
0.8
Brusdar Graterol
61.0
7.2
2.2
1.0
6.0%
19.4%
.279
115
4.12
87
0.7
Evan Phillips
56.3
10.2
2.9
1.3
7.8%
27.6%
.279
121
3.95
83
0.7
Caleb Ferguson
58.0
9.8
3.3
1.1
8.6%
25.8%
.296
109
4.05
91
0.7
Ryan Yarbrough
98.3
7.4
1.9
1.5
5.1%
19.6%
.296
91
4.61
110
0.7
River Ryan
88.7
7.7
4.0
1.3
9.9%
19.4%
.290
89
5.00
112
0.6
Alex Vesia
60.7
11.6
3.6
1.3
9.5%
30.8%
.286
110
3.95
91
0.6
Ricky Vanasco
56.0
9.3
5.0
1.4
12.4%
23.1%
.298
91
5.04
110
0.4
Ryan Brasier
52.0
7.8
2.9
1.2
7.8%
20.6%
.272
102
4.37
98
0.3
J.P. Feyereisen
45.7
9.7
3.9
1.6
10.3%
25.1%
.274
98
4.70
102
0.2
Blake Treinen
43.7
8.9
3.3
1.2
8.6%
23.1%
.286
103
4.31
97
0.2
Shelby Miller
45.3
9.1
4.0
1.4
10.2%
23.5%
.281
97
4.69
103
0.2
Ben Casparius
87.3
7.6
4.6
1.4
11.3%
18.5%
.295
82
5.36
121
0.2
Daniel Hudson
28.0
10.9
3.5
1.6
9.2%
28.3%
.294
102
4.43
99
0.1
Eduardo Salazar
81.0
6.6
4.0
1.3
9.9%
16.2%
.294
83
5.35
121
0.1
Joe Kelly
34.3
11.5
4.5
1.3
11.3%
29.3%
.296
95
4.33
105
0.1
John Rooney
66.0
7.6
4.0
1.4
9.9%
19.2%
.294
86
5.07
116
0.1
Carlo Reyes
42.7
7.2
4.0
1.5
10.1%
18.0%
.289
87
5.20
114
0.1
Robbie Erlin
65.3
6.2
3.3
1.5
8.2%
15.3%
.308
79
5.31
127
0.1
Yency Almonte
45.7
9.9
3.9
1.2
10.3%
25.6%
.282
94
4.35
107
0.0
Mark Washington
45.0
7.6
3.8
1.4
9.5%
19.1%
.288
88
5.06
113
0.0
Kevin Gowdy
51.0
6.7
4.1
1.4
10.0%
16.5%
.297
83
5.33
121
0.0
Gus Varland
53.3
8.6
4.2
1.4
10.5%
21.5%
.300
87
4.92
115
0.0
Kendall Williams
84.0
5.7
4.6
1.4
11.2%
13.8%
.289
78
5.76
129
0.0
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr
87.0
6.1
3.6
1.3
8.9%
14.9%
.293
80
5.39
124
0.0
Aaron Ochsenbein
35.7
8.1
3.8
1.5
9.6%
20.4%
.294
88
4.99
113
0.0
Tyler Cyr
34.7
9.9
4.9
1.3
12.3%
24.5%
.297
91
4.67
110
0.0
Mike Montgomery
61.0
6.3
4.9
1.5
11.6%
15.1%
.304
76
5.80
132
-0.1
Alec Gamboa
67.0
7.0
5.0
1.3
12.0%
16.8%
.294
81
5.39
124
-0.1
Ken Giles
26.7
10.8
6.1
1.7
14.5%
25.8%
.303
79
5.43
127
-0.1
Braydon Fisher
57.3
9.6
5.8
1.3
13.9%
22.8%
.287
87
5.03
115
-0.1
Keegan Curtis
34.0
6.6
4.0
1.3
9.9%
16.4%
.295
80
5.28
125
-0.2
Trevor Bettencourt
49.7
6.7
3.6
1.4
8.9%
16.4%
.299
87
5.13
115
-0.2
Zack Burdi
22.7
9.1
4.8
1.6
11.4%
21.9%
.306
82
5.37
122
-0.2
Ryan Sherriff
26.7
8.4
4.7
1.4
11.7%
20.8%
.303
79
5.36
127
-0.2
James Jones
22.7
7.5
5.6
1.6
13.2%
17.9%
.299
71
6.12
140
-0.3
Jack Little
20.7
6.1
5.2
1.7
12.4%
14.4%
.292
70
6.45
144
-0.3
Jimmy Nelson
26.3
10.3
7.5
1.7
17.3%
23.6%
.299
69
6.41
145
-0.4
Jake Reed
36.0
7.5
4.0
1.5
9.9%
18.6%
.299
77
5.51
130
-0.4
Aldry Acosta
44.3
5.1
3.9
1.4
9.4%
12.4%
.293
77
5.67
129
-0.4
Robbie Peto
68.7
6.2
5.4
1.6
12.6%
14.5%
.294
72
6.12
139
-0.5
Ben Harris
45.3
10.9
7.9
1.4
18.3%
25.2%
.284
76
5.88
131
-0.5
Antonio Knowles
47.0
8.8
6.1
1.3
14.3%
20.5%
.292
76
5.60
131
-0.5
Ryan Sublette
43.3
9.1
7.1
1.5
16.5%
21.4%
.291
76
6.02
132
-0.5
Jake Pilarski
37.3
6.8
6.3
1.4
14.5%
15.6%
.296
70
6.17
142
-0.6
Tanner Dodson
51.7
6.1
5.7
1.4
13.4%
14.2%
.301
74
6.06
136
-0.8
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
.218
.275
.385
.205
.260
.345
5.0
2.6
3.03
4.10
Shohei Ohtani
.224
.297
.396
.198
.267
.332
4.1
2.0
2.76
4.01
Walker Buehler
.229
.283
.374
.228
.274
.381
3.9
2.0
3.07
4.23
Julio Urías
.215
.265
.403
.237
.282
.380
3.6
1.8
3.21
4.28
Bobby Miller
.217
.283
.371
.238
.296
.356
3.3
1.6
3.27
4.26
Tyler Glasnow
.219
.281
.372
.218
.273
.384
3.4
1.4
2.82
4.23
Clayton Kershaw
.223
.275
.394
.238
.285
.401
3.0
1.6
2.90
4.33
Tony Gonsolin
.234
.303
.378
.232
.298
.428
2.0
0.6
3.71
4.93
Gavin Stone
.250
.314
.415
.246
.310
.415
2.1
0.4
3.86
5.10
Emmet Sheehan
.210
.302
.355
.239
.324
.421
2.0
0.1
3.77
5.15
Dustin May
.235
.327
.429
.207
.258
.324
1.4
0.6
3.18
4.35
William Cuevas
.279
.337
.493
.259
.302
.453
1.7
0.1
4.22
5.42
Michael Grove
.263
.338
.453
.240
.296
.415
1.4
0.2
3.84
5.16
Landon Knack
.234
.313
.400
.274
.320
.441
1.3
0.3
3.99
5.05
Kyle Hurt
.232
.327
.399
.216
.320
.379
1.5
0.1
3.86
5.31
Nick Frasso
.247
.323
.428
.261
.329
.426
1.4
0.2
4.04
5.23
Brusdar Graterol
.275
.342
.471
.218
.266
.323
1.2
0.2
3.11
4.33
Evan Phillips
.214
.294
.347
.228
.288
.421
1.3
0.1
2.76
4.53
Caleb Ferguson
.230
.318
.351
.236
.313
.399
1.3
0.0
3.23
4.81
Ryan Yarbrough
.224
.287
.378
.276
.321
.474
1.4
0.0
4.01
5.33
River Ryan
.262
.359
.417
.244
.317
.439
1.2
0.0
4.27
5.32
Alex Vesia
.192
.276
.295
.228
.310
.436
1.2
-0.2
2.98
4.99
Bryan Hudson
.230
.310
.351
.245
.327
.430
1.0
-0.1
3.55
5.16
Ricky Vanasco
.231
.331
.413
.263
.356
.447
0.8
0.0
4.09
5.31
Ryan Brasier
.256
.337
.442
.221
.270
.363
0.7
-0.3
3.34
5.32
J.P. Feyereisen
.250
.333
.475
.213
.286
.383
0.7
-0.4
3.49
5.76
Blake Treinen
.250
.329
.461
.228
.294
.359
0.8
-0.3
3.23
5.46
Shelby Miller
.250
.337
.464
.222
.304
.367
0.7
-0.3
3.61
5.35
Ben Casparius
.259
.361
.458
.261
.341
.439
0.7
-0.5
4.71
5.81
Daniel Hudson
.224
.309
.388
.241
.308
.448
0.5
-0.2
2.87
5.85
Eduardo Salazar
.270
.361
.447
.262
.342
.445
0.5
-0.5
4.67
5.76
Joe Kelly
.217
.329
.400
.229
.321
.400
0.5
-0.4
3.41
6.01
John Rooney
.238
.330
.345
.267
.347
.477
0.6
-0.5
4.32
5.69
Carlo Reyes
.260
.349
.438
.260
.327
.458
0.3
-0.2
4.29
5.52
Robbie Erlin
.282
.345
.474
.286
.349
.487
0.4
-0.4
4.80
6.02
Yency Almonte
.250
.352
.408
.206
.291
.371
0.5
-0.5
3.69
5.50
Mark Washington
.244
.330
.410
.263
.339
.455
0.4
-0.4
4.19
5.58
Kevin Gowdy
.287
.370
.500
.255
.331
.409
0.3
-0.3
4.68
5.70
Gus Varland
.256
.358
.444
.252
.328
.420
0.4
-0.4
4.24
5.64
Kendall Williams
.277
.366
.447
.266
.356
.463
0.4
-0.5
5.07
6.00
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr
.278
.360
.443
.262
.342
.459
0.5
-0.6
4.76
5.86
Aaron Ochsenbein
.270
.352
.508
.247
.314
.403
0.3
-0.4
4.16
5.76
Tyler Cyr
.222
.319
.397
.254
.349
.437
0.3
-0.4
3.82
5.83
Mike Montgomery
.286
.370
.471
.277
.371
.463
0.3
-0.6
5.03
6.34
Alec Gamboa
.262
.351
.429
.264
.357
.445
0.4
-0.7
4.59
5.98
Ken Giles
.229
.351
.458
.255
.364
.455
0.2
-0.5
4.31
7.14
Braydon Fisher
.230
.366
.380
.235
.333
.412
0.4
-0.8
4.17
5.72
Keegan Curtis
.268
.369
.464
.266
.337
.443
0.1
-0.5
4.62
6.17
Trevor Bettencourt
.268
.345
.454
.275
.330
.461
0.2
-0.6
4.33
5.64
Zack Burdi
.262
.367
.452
.255
.345
.447
0.0
-0.5
4.46
6.18
Ryan Sherriff
.237
.326
.342
.269
.383
.507
0.0
-0.6
4.41
6.80
James Jones
.259
.394
.444
.270
.373
.492
0.0
-0.5
5.04
7.19
Jack Little
.268
.388
.463
.286
.367
.500
-0.1
-0.4
5.44
6.81
Jimmy Nelson
.255
.426
.553
.236
.368
.382
0.0
-0.7
5.00
7.70
Jake Reed
.305
.406
.576
.238
.323
.381
-0.1
-0.7
4.75
6.50
Aldry Acosta
.294
.371
.424
.266
.340
.500
-0.2
-0.7
4.97
6.07
Robbie Peto
.258
.377
.469
.289
.371
.483
0.0
-1.0
5.28
6.62
Ben Harris
.236
.400
.382
.216
.378
.414
0.0
-1.0
4.70
6.48
Antonio Knowles
.253
.381
.402
.240
.362
.438
-0.1
-1.0
4.94
6.50
Ryan Sublette
.235
.386
.457
.253
.383
.414
-0.2
-1.0
4.97
6.58
Jake Pilarski
.282
.407
.521
.256
.366
.397
-0.3
-0.9
5.36
6.83
Tanner Dodson
.270
.373
.450
.284
.392
.468
-0.4
-1.2
5.17
6.44
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.