For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Detroit Tigers.
Batters
This is hardly an impressive set of offensive projections, but given that Detroit ranked 13th in the American League in runs scored in 2023, it would be odd to expect them to be that great at this point in the offseason. And in contrast to a team like the Royals, the Tigers have a lot of interesting players, most with actual upside. ZiPS likes Riley Greene, but that’s nothing new, as he’s long been the system’s favorite Tigers hitter. The computer is a believer in Spencer Torkelson’s second-half power being closer to his actual abilities. Tork was one of the biggest underperformers in the zStats that ZiPS uses as part of establishing a player’s baseline. Now, it’s not exactly projecting him to become Matt Olson or anything, but after 2022 and the early parts of 2023, this constitutes a pretty good comeback. Mark Canha is in his decline phase, but he’ll still at least get on base and is relatively flexible on the diamond, though he’s more of an emergency option at third base and in center field at this point.
Javier Báez is the only really depressing veteran hitter projection here. I can’t shake the feeling that he’s got one last season or so of relevance in there somewhere, but that could just be a relic of my memories from before pitchers figured out how to absolutely shut Báez down. ZiPS isn’t really all that keen on Matt Vierling, and third base might be a useful place for the Tigers to look at upgrading this offseason. A Jeimer Candelario reunion would be fun if he’s into it, though the team may simply utilize Colt Keith and Jace Jung at second and third, depending on how their fielding shakes out. ZiPS is very interested in Justyn-Henry Malloy as a hitter, but it absolutely detests his defense at third.
It makes me sad to say, but even with a very ordinary DH situation, the team picks up one or two wins a year just from not having to play Miguel Cabrera.
Detroit will still likely finish in the bottom half of the league in runs scored, but there are players worth watching here.
Pitchers
Tarik Skubal came back from flexor tendon surgery to be one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season, and I remain surprised how little he was talked about. He came back throwing harder and with better command than he’d previously had in the majors, making me wonder if they replaced a tendon with an industrial spring. Whatever the cause, ZiPS is into it, though it’s obviously hedging its bets about Skubal’s health. There aren’t any real standouts in the rotation, including recent signee Kenta Maeda, but ZiPS sees the Tigers with a lot of starters just below league average, and the vast majority of them are in their mid-20s or younger, so it’s likely a few of them will break out. The computer is especially interested in Sawyer Gipson-Long and Jackson Jobe.
If our depth charts are right about the pecking order in the bullpen, the Tigers are poised to get the most of their relief corps, and ZiPS especially likes Will Vest and Tyler Holton. The quality of the ‘pen drops off a bit as you get to the back of it, but that’s normal for a team that’s still rebuilding. One or two of the starters who don’t make the rotation might serve to fill that need.
Overall, the Tigers look like a roughly .500 team, but their talent is made up of younger players, so they have a decent win ceiling, though I don’t think there’s much chance they go the route of the 2023 Orioles in 2024. In the AL East, this forecast would mean fighting with the Red Sox, but in the AL Central, the Tigers are actually playoff relevant, though they’re certainly far from the favorite.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Riley Greene
L
23
CF
497
448
65
120
21
5
15
56
44
130
7
1
Spencer Torkelson
R
24
1B
656
576
91
140
33
1
33
94
67
155
3
0
Mark Canha
R
35
LF
493
417
61
111
23
3
11
49
51
86
8
1
Austin Meadows
L
29
LF
475
418
59
109
25
4
17
65
47
88
3
3
Colt Keith
L
22
3B
558
507
72
128
29
3
19
75
44
128
2
1
Jace Jung
L
23
2B
556
493
56
110
23
2
18
67
55
159
2
1
Parker Meadows
L
24
CF
597
536
72
122
23
5
15
67
48
149
15
3
Eddys Leonard
R
23
SS
565
515
64
123
26
3
13
56
35
141
3
3
Jake Rogers
R
29
C
319
288
37
59
10
2
13
43
26
104
1
1
Ryan Kreidler
R
26
SS
401
355
51
77
14
1
11
45
36
122
9
3
Javier Báez
R
31
SS
522
488
60
115
21
3
14
61
23
133
10
2
Akil Baddoo
L
25
LF
432
383
52
93
17
5
11
45
46
106
16
5
Dillon Dingler
R
25
C
393
353
45
75
15
2
10
48
28
126
2
1
Andy Ibáñez
R
31
2B
432
396
49
103
24
2
10
47
31
74
3
1
Kerry Carpenter
L
26
RF
496
453
58
116
22
2
19
69
32
117
4
3
Zach McKinstry
L
29
3B
452
405
57
99
19
5
10
37
38
98
10
4
Jonathan Schoop
R
32
3B
463
428
53
107
21
1
11
46
25
99
2
1
Joe Rizzo
L
26
3B
438
406
51
99
22
1
10
46
28
101
1
1
Carson Kelly
R
29
C
304
269
32
60
13
0
8
29
29
67
1
1
Nick Maton
L
27
3B
433
374
48
83
20
2
9
42
48
107
3
2
Andrew Navigato
R
26
SS
377
346
43
81
18
2
8
45
21
88
6
5
Justyn-Henry Malloy
R
24
3B
581
496
71
116
21
0
16
59
75
155
3
1
Bligh Madris
L
28
RF
457
406
47
93
19
4
10
46
43
116
5
3
Eliezer Alfonzo
B
24
C
391
363
43
97
14
0
6
40
19
38
1
0
Wenceel Pérez
B
24
2B
508
461
68
113
20
6
7
52
39
96
13
4
Seth Stephenson
R
23
CF
513
454
73
100
16
6
3
53
25
137
35
10
Andre Lipcius
R
26
1B
493
439
54
107
21
2
9
50
48
97
3
2
Nick Solak
R
29
LF
450
399
53
99
17
2
9
45
38
95
5
3
Matt Vierling
R
27
RF
526
479
60
123
21
5
10
44
40
106
6
6
Corey Joyce
R
25
SS
344
297
35
62
12
2
5
36
35
97
6
2
John Valente
R
29
2B
235
216
25
58
10
3
2
23
15
28
5
2
Jake Holton
R
26
1B
449
389
49
91
15
3
9
51
45
90
1
2
Isan Díaz
L
28
2B
341
303
45
67
13
1
12
38
33
98
3
1
Tyler Nevin
R
27
1B
467
416
52
101
19
2
12
51
40
95
2
1
Carlos Mendoza
L
24
2B
313
260
39
62
8
2
1
25
38
58
5
4
Danny Serretti
B
24
SS
414
368
46
83
18
1
5
37
38
95
2
4
Luis Santana
R
24
3B
341
316
33
72
14
1
7
34
17
82
3
2
Donny Sands
R
28
C
355
320
33
74
16
0
6
31
31
76
1
1
Brendon Davis
R
26
RF
466
417
53
92
21
3
13
56
40
130
4
2
Gage Workman
L
24
SS
471
433
56
89
22
4
10
48
33
180
12
4
Mario Feliciano
R
25
C
261
244
26
59
12
1
3
25
10
53
0
1
Chris Meyers
L
25
1B
400
368
45
85
16
2
11
48
23
100
3
1
Julio E. Rodriguez
R
27
C
283
257
25
54
7
0
8
27
22
86
0
1
Trei Cruz
B
25
CF
492
433
54
86
18
4
7
40
56
139
6
4
Grant Witherspoon
L
27
RF
395
358
42
80
15
3
9
40
33
113
7
4
Josh Crouch
R
25
C
365
335
28
73
13
1
5
34
22
102
0
1
Diego Rincones
R
25
DH
290
266
32
66
10
0
7
31
15
50
0
1
Steele Walker
L
27
RF
353
325
37
74
14
2
6
33
23
72
3
3
Austin Murr
L
25
LF
363
331
41
77
17
2
3
32
26
66
5
1
Justice Bigbie
R
25
LF
455
418
52
106
18
2
9
53
28
98
3
1
Michael Papierski
B
28
1B
352
306
35
68
12
1
6
31
38
80
0
1
Luke Gold
R
23
2B
401
359
45
80
17
1
8
46
25
101
5
1
Brady Allen
R
24
RF
531
477
57
103
23
3
12
56
45
164
3
1
Eric De La Rosa
R
27
LF
340
307
38
63
13
4
4
36
21
127
12
4
Bryant Packard
L
26
DH
275
254
33
57
12
1
5
30
12
69
6
2
Miguel Cabrera
R
41
1B
389
351
27
88
13
0
7
39
30
87
0
1
Daniel Cabrera
L
25
RF
412
376
43
85
16
3
5
36
32
89
4
1
Ben Malgeri
R
24
CF
437
392
55
82
16
3
8
48
32
141
8
5
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Riley Greene
497
.268
.336
.438
115
.170
.347
1
2.6
.335
68
Spencer Torkelson
656
.243
.326
.476
122
.233
.276
-1
2.2
.342
90
Mark Canha
493
.266
.371
.415
121
.149
.313
-3
1.9
.347
66
Austin Meadows
475
.261
.339
.462
122
.201
.294
0
1.7
.343
67
Colt Keith
558
.252
.314
.434
107
.181
.303
-3
1.6
.321
70
Jace Jung
556
.223
.308
.387
94
.164
.291
3
1.5
.304
60
Parker Meadows
597
.228
.294
.373
86
.146
.288
4
1.2
.291
63
Eddys Leonard
565
.239
.303
.377
90
.138
.305
-1
1.2
.298
61
Jake Rogers
319
.205
.277
.389
84
.184
.269
5
1.2
.289
32
Ryan Kreidler
401
.217
.298
.355
83
.138
.297
4
1.1
.289
41
Javier Báez
522
.236
.280
.377
83
.141
.296
2
1.0
.284
54
Akil Baddoo
432
.243
.323
.399
102
.157
.308
2
1.0
.315
55
Dillon Dingler
393
.212
.288
.351
79
.139
.300
4
1.0
.282
36
Andy Ibáñez
432
.260
.318
.407
102
.146
.298
-4
1.0
.315
52
Kerry Carpenter
496
.256
.315
.439
109
.183
.306
-1
0.9
.323
65
Zach McKinstry
452
.244
.313
.390
96
.146
.300
-2
0.9
.307
53
Jonathan Schoop
463
.250
.296
.381
89
.131
.302
3
0.9
.294
49
Joe Rizzo
438
.244
.295
.377
87
.133
.302
4
0.8
.292
46
Carson Kelly
304
.223
.303
.361
86
.138
.268
1
0.8
.291
30
Nick Maton
433
.222
.316
.358
89
.136
.287
1
0.8
.298
44
Andrew Navigato
377
.234
.289
.367
83
.133
.292
2
0.6
.287
40
Justyn-Henry Malloy
581
.234
.339
.373
100
.139
.308
-12
0.6
.317
64
Bligh Madris
457
.229
.303
.369
88
.140
.296
6
0.5
.294
48
Eliezer Alfonzo
391
.267
.307
.355
86
.088
.285
-3
0.5
.291
40
Wenceel Pérez
508
.245
.308
.360
87
.115
.296
-3
0.5
.294
55
Seth Stephenson
513
.220
.295
.302
69
.081
.309
5
0.5
.270
52
Andre Lipcius
493
.244
.318
.362
91
.118
.294
5
0.4
.301
52
Nick Solak
450
.248
.327
.368
96
.120
.305
0
0.4
.309
50
Matt Vierling
526
.257
.320
.384
97
.127
.311
0
0.4
.308
63
Corey Joyce
344
.209
.311
.313
77
.104
.292
-1
0.4
.284
31
John Valente
235
.269
.321
.370
94
.102
.301
-2
0.4
.303
27
Jake Holton
449
.234
.332
.357
94
.123
.283
1
0.3
.309
47
Isan Díaz
341
.221
.303
.389
93
.168
.285
-3
0.3
.300
37
Tyler Nevin
467
.243
.317
.385
96
.142
.288
1
0.3
.308
52
Carlos Mendoza
313
.238
.346
.296
84
.058
.303
-2
0.3
.297
29
Danny Serretti
414
.226
.302
.321
76
.095
.291
0
0.3
.279
38
Luis Santana
341
.228
.282
.345
75
.117
.286
3
0.2
.276
32
Donny Sands
355
.231
.299
.338
79
.106
.286
-3
0.2
.282
33
Brendon Davis
466
.221
.298
.379
89
.158
.288
0
0.0
.296
49
Gage Workman
471
.206
.265
.344
70
.139
.325
0
0.0
.267
44
Mario Feliciano
261
.242
.284
.336
74
.094
.298
-1
0.0
.272
24
Chris Meyers
400
.231
.290
.375
85
.144
.288
3
-0.1
.290
41
Julio E. Rodriguez
283
.210
.279
.331
71
.121
.282
-3
-0.2
.271
24
Trei Cruz
492
.199
.291
.307
69
.109
.275
2
-0.2
.270
42
Grant Witherspoon
395
.223
.291
.358
81
.134
.301
2
-0.2
.284
40
Josh Crouch
365
.218
.274
.307
63
.090
.298
0
-0.2
.259
29
Diego Rincones
290
.248
.303
.365
87
.117
.282
0
-0.2
.293
30
Steele Walker
353
.228
.283
.338
74
.111
.275
4
-0.3
.274
33
Austin Murr
363
.233
.296
.323
74
.091
.282
3
-0.3
.276
33
Justice Bigbie
455
.254
.310
.371
91
.117
.312
-4
-0.3
.298
49
Michael Papierski
352
.222
.316
.327
82
.105
.282
0
-0.4
.289
32
Luke Gold
401
.223
.294
.343
79
.120
.288
-8
-0.5
.282
38
Brady Allen
531
.216
.290
.352
80
.136
.302
0
-0.6
.283
50
Eric De La Rosa
340
.205
.279
.313
67
.107
.335
2
-0.6
.265
31
Bryant Packard
275
.224
.276
.339
72
.114
.289
0
-0.7
.271
26
Miguel Cabrera
389
.251
.311
.348
85
.097
.315
-3
-0.7
.290
38
Daniel Cabrera
412
.226
.286
.324
72
.098
.284
0
-0.9
.270
36
Ben Malgeri
437
.209
.284
.327
72
.117
.305
-8
-1.1
.272
40
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Riley Greene
.298
.368
.497
137
3.9
.236
.305
.381
94
1.2
Spencer Torkelson
.269
.351
.532
143
3.9
.215
.299
.403
97
0.4
Mark Canha
.293
.395
.459
138
2.9
.238
.343
.367
101
0.7
Austin Meadows
.284
.366
.512
142
2.8
.235
.315
.406
102
0.6
Colt Keith
.276
.339
.493
129
3.3
.226
.284
.382
87
0.2
Jace Jung
.251
.333
.443
115
2.9
.198
.280
.340
74
0.1
Parker Meadows
.254
.320
.417
103
2.5
.207
.272
.328
70
0.1
Eddys Leonard
.264
.329
.429
109
2.7
.209
.279
.328
72
0.0
Jake Rogers
.234
.306
.448
108
2.1
.178
.246
.328
62
0.3
Ryan Kreidler
.242
.324
.408
102
2.0
.190
.271
.304
64
0.2
Javier Báez
.261
.303
.422
101
2.2
.211
.254
.330
65
-0.1
Akil Baddoo
.267
.348
.452
120
2.0
.214
.294
.346
80
-0.1
Dillon Dingler
.238
.312
.400
97
1.8
.185
.260
.311
60
0.1
Andy Ibáñez
.286
.346
.458
123
2.1
.229
.287
.357
82
-0.1
Kerry Carpenter
.281
.339
.489
127
2.0
.231
.288
.395
91
-0.1
Zach McKinstry
.271
.339
.445
116
2.0
.216
.287
.340
77
0.0
Jonathan Schoop
.277
.325
.423
106
1.9
.222
.270
.335
70
-0.2
Joe Rizzo
.268
.319
.429
105
1.7
.221
.271
.333
69
-0.2
Carson Kelly
.258
.329
.419
109
1.6
.195
.274
.311
66
0.1
Nick Maton
.247
.338
.404
108
1.7
.195
.290
.318
71
-0.2
Andrew Navigato
.262
.317
.421
103
1.6
.206
.262
.319
63
-0.2
Justyn-Henry Malloy
.258
.367
.419
119
1.9
.208
.313
.338
84
-0.6
Bligh Madris
.256
.330
.418
109
1.6
.202
.275
.326
71
-0.5
Eliezer Alfonzo
.297
.337
.399
105
1.4
.236
.275
.310
65
-0.5
Wenceel Pérez
.271
.334
.403
107
1.8
.218
.282
.317
69
-0.6
Seth Stephenson
.243
.314
.338
83
1.4
.195
.273
.266
54
-0.6
Andre Lipcius
.271
.345
.407
110
1.6
.215
.290
.320
74
-0.6
Nick Solak
.279
.356
.408
115
1.4
.224
.302
.324
78
-0.5
Matt Vierling
.283
.346
.427
115
1.6
.231
.293
.340
79
-0.8
Corey Joyce
.237
.335
.364
98
1.2
.181
.283
.270
59
-0.3
John Valente
.300
.348
.410
113
0.9
.238
.288
.323
73
-0.3
Jake Holton
.262
.357
.404
114
1.3
.205
.305
.314
76
-0.7
Isan Díaz
.247
.326
.442
112
1.1
.194
.275
.342
74
-0.5
Tyler Nevin
.270
.342
.435
117
1.5
.215
.291
.337
78
-0.7
Carlos Mendoza
.265
.376
.332
100
0.9
.207
.318
.262
65
-0.4
Danny Serretti
.254
.328
.361
93
1.2
.200
.274
.278
58
-0.6
Luis Santana
.255
.308
.401
96
1.0
.198
.253
.306
57
-0.6
Donny Sands
.266
.332
.392
102
1.1
.202
.270
.294
61
-0.7
Brendon Davis
.249
.323
.432
108
1.1
.196
.271
.330
69
-1.1
Gage Workman
.234
.290
.397
92
1.2
.179
.239
.292
50
-1.2
Mario Feliciano
.271
.313
.383
94
0.7
.209
.254
.289
53
-0.7
Chris Meyers
.261
.318
.420
105
0.9
.204
.264
.324
65
-1.0
Julio E. Rodriguez
.238
.312
.384
94
0.6
.178
.245
.287
50
-0.9
Trei Cruz
.226
.321
.355
89
1.0
.171
.262
.269
50
-1.3
Grant Witherspoon
.252
.321
.411
104
0.8
.197
.265
.316
63
-1.1
Josh Crouch
.247
.303
.346
81
0.5
.190
.249
.267
47
-1.0
Diego Rincones
.276
.331
.425
109
0.5
.221
.276
.321
69
-0.9
Steele Walker
.254
.309
.389
93
0.5
.202
.258
.297
56
-1.1
Austin Murr
.263
.325
.366
94
0.5
.205
.266
.279
56
-1.1
Justice Bigbie
.281
.336
.419
110
0.8
.225
.279
.329
71
-1.4
Michael Papierski
.252
.344
.371
99
0.4
.197
.291
.288
64
-1.2
Luke Gold
.254
.322
.392
100
0.4
.198
.268
.301
62
-1.4
Brady Allen
.241
.316
.394
96
0.5
.191
.268
.305
62
-1.7
Eric De La Rosa
.233
.304
.358
86
0.2
.176
.248
.269
46
-1.4
Bryant Packard
.254
.306
.390
95
0.1
.202
.252
.298
57
-1.2
Miguel Cabrera
.279
.342
.387
104
0.1
.219
.284
.303
66
-1.7
Daniel Cabrera
.253
.314
.368
90
0.0
.197
.259
.274
52
-1.9
Ben Malgeri
.233
.310
.375
90
-0.1
.181
.261
.291
55
-1.9
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Riley Greene
.264
.329
.419
.270
.339
.447
Spencer Torkelson
.251
.342
.498
.238
.316
.462
Mark Canha
.263
.365
.408
.268
.375
.419
Austin Meadows
.244
.322
.433
.268
.346
.474
Colt Keith
.244
.304
.397
.256
.318
.450
Jace Jung
.214
.297
.379
.227
.312
.391
Parker Meadows
.220
.283
.360
.231
.300
.380
Eddys Leonard
.247
.311
.402
.233
.296
.358
Jake Rogers
.211
.289
.404
.201
.269
.380
Ryan Kreidler
.228
.315
.377
.207
.282
.337
Javier Báez
.245
.292
.385
.232
.274
.374
Akil Baddoo
.237
.317
.355
.245
.324
.414
Dillon Dingler
.219
.295
.355
.207
.282
.348
Andy Ibáñez
.265
.328
.420
.256
.311
.397
Kerry Carpenter
.248
.311
.423
.260
.316
.447
Zach McKinstry
.240
.310
.375
.246
.314
.395
Jonathan Schoop
.256
.308
.368
.247
.290
.386
Joe Rizzo
.234
.283
.353
.251
.302
.393
Carson Kelly
.230
.316
.370
.219
.295
.355
Nick Maton
.211
.304
.330
.226
.320
.370
Andrew Navigato
.231
.288
.353
.237
.290
.379
Justyn-Henry Malloy
.238
.355
.386
.231
.327
.364
Bligh Madris
.224
.294
.340
.232
.308
.386
Eliezer Alfonzo
.263
.303
.346
.270
.309
.361
Wenceel Pérez
.239
.303
.344
.249
.311
.370
Seth Stephenson
.222
.296
.311
.220
.295
.296
Andre Lipcius
.241
.324
.359
.246
.314
.365
Nick Solak
.257
.337
.395
.243
.321
.352
Matt Vierling
.267
.335
.405
.250
.310
.370
Corey Joyce
.210
.317
.315
.208
.307
.312
John Valente
.274
.336
.387
.264
.305
.355
Jake Holton
.238
.340
.378
.231
.326
.342
Isan Díaz
.219
.299
.354
.222
.305
.406
Tyler Nevin
.247
.323
.388
.239
.312
.382
Carlos Mendoza
.235
.351
.284
.240
.344
.302
Danny Serretti
.228
.309
.325
.224
.298
.318
Luis Santana
.227
.282
.356
.228
.281
.337
Donny Sands
.239
.316
.355
.225
.285
.324
Brendon Davis
.228
.312
.393
.212
.283
.364
Gage Workman
.196
.251
.323
.211
.273
.356
Mario Feliciano
.248
.286
.343
.237
.282
.331
Chris Meyers
.227
.286
.364
.233
.292
.380
Julio E. Rodriguez
.209
.287
.318
.211
.273
.340
Trei Cruz
.199
.291
.319
.199
.290
.300
Grant Witherspoon
.210
.274
.322
.233
.303
.381
Josh Crouch
.221
.278
.338
.216
.271
.284
Diego Rincones
.254
.308
.393
.243
.299
.340
Steele Walker
.221
.280
.321
.232
.286
.351
Austin Murr
.226
.293
.321
.236
.297
.324
Justice Bigbie
.254
.314
.367
.253
.307
.373
Michael Papierski
.217
.317
.308
.226
.316
.339
Luke Gold
.225
.294
.341
.222
.294
.344
Brady Allen
.220
.301
.360
.213
.283
.347
Eric De La Rosa
.212
.288
.333
.200
.273
.297
Bryant Packard
.216
.272
.320
.233
.281
.357
Miguel Cabrera
.256
.333
.367
.249
.303
.341
Daniel Cabrera
.214
.268
.303
.234
.298
.338
Ben Malgeri
.213
.294
.338
.207
.277
.319
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Eduardo Rodriguez
137.7
8.5
2.9
1.0
7.5%
22.3%
.304
105
3.90
96
2.1
Tarik Skubal
103.7
9.4
2.3
1.0
6.1%
25.5%
.292
116
3.39
86
2.0
Reese Olson
124.0
8.6
3.8
1.1
9.7%
22.2%
.291
97
4.29
103
1.6
Sawyer Gipson-Long
104.3
8.3
2.8
1.2
7.2%
21.6%
.298
98
4.19
102
1.3
Brant Hurter
107.7
7.2
2.5
1.1
6.5%
18.7%
.291
96
4.29
104
1.2
Ty Madden
109.3
7.8
3.7
1.2
9.5%
20.0%
.290
94
4.55
107
1.2
Kenta Maeda
103.7
8.4
3.0
1.3
7.7%
22.0%
.291
94
4.34
106
1.1
Keider Montero
116.3
7.5
3.4
1.2
8.8%
19.4%
.289
91
4.60
109
1.1
Wilmer Flores
101.3
7.1
3.2
1.1
8.2%
18.3%
.289
92
4.55
109
1.0
Tyler Holton
77.3
8.1
2.4
1.0
6.5%
21.7%
.281
110
3.89
91
1.0
Matt Manning
91.0
7.2
3.2
1.2
8.2%
18.8%
.285
93
4.52
107
1.0
Jackson Jobe
88.0
6.9
3.0
1.2
7.7%
17.8%
.283
92
4.66
109
0.9
Casey Mize
95.7
6.7
2.6
1.3
6.9%
17.6%
.274
92
4.77
109
0.9
Alex Faedo
81.7
8.3
2.8
1.3
7.2%
21.6%
.293
94
4.32
107
0.9
Dylan Smith
75.7
6.3
2.7
1.1
7.0%
16.1%
.294
94
4.43
107
0.8
Joey Wentz
109.3
8.7
4.0
1.3
10.0%
22.0%
.303
87
4.59
115
0.8
Beau Brieske
72.3
7.0
2.9
1.1
7.4%
18.1%
.288
95
4.40
106
0.7
Matthew Boyd
67.0
9.7
3.2
1.3
8.4%
25.1%
.302
93
4.30
108
0.7
Brenan Hanifee
84.3
6.0
2.8
1.2
7.0%
15.1%
.301
88
4.76
113
0.6
Will Vest
58.7
9.4
3.2
1.1
8.3%
24.1%
.302
106
3.90
94
0.6
Mason Englert
78.7
7.3
2.9
1.1
7.4%
18.9%
.297
90
4.46
111
0.6
Brendan White
76.3
8.6
2.8
1.1
7.5%
22.7%
.294
97
4.17
103
0.5
Miguel Diaz
68.3
8.4
3.6
1.1
9.2%
21.8%
.288
104
4.22
96
0.5
Carlos Pena
89.3
6.8
3.6
1.2
9.1%
17.0%
.297
84
4.95
119
0.5
Lael Lockhart
85.0
7.3
4.4
1.2
11.1%
18.2%
.291
85
4.90
117
0.5
Alex Lange
62.7
11.9
5.0
1.0
12.5%
29.7%
.294
102
3.97
98
0.4
Austin Bergner
78.7
8.0
4.5
1.3
11.0%
19.8%
.295
86
4.89
116
0.4
Tyler Mattison
52.3
9.6
4.6
1.0
11.7%
24.2%
.290
99
4.15
101
0.4
Jason Foley
64.0
6.3
2.3
1.0
5.9%
16.5%
.304
101
4.11
99
0.3
Garrett Hill
80.3
8.3
4.5
1.2
11.2%
20.8%
.294
84
4.91
119
0.3
Chance Kirby
71.3
5.8
3.5
1.3
8.8%
14.5%
.296
84
5.09
119
0.3
Zach Logue
101.7
6.5
3.4
1.3
8.5%
16.3%
.298
81
5.06
123
0.3
Spencer Turnbull
59.7
7.7
3.8
1.2
9.5%
19.4%
.299
80
4.85
124
0.2
Sean Guenther
44.3
8.1
2.6
1.2
6.8%
20.9%
.308
91
4.29
110
0.2
Rony García
49.7
8.2
4.0
1.3
10.3%
21.0%
.281
87
4.91
115
0.2
Miguel Del Pozo
35.0
9.0
3.3
1.3
8.6%
23.0%
.299
97
4.40
103
0.1
Ashton Goudeau
65.0
5.1
3.6
1.2
8.9%
12.7%
.288
79
5.26
127
0.1
Adam Wolf
78.3
6.5
4.1
1.3
10.2%
16.2%
.298
80
5.31
125
0.1
Kervin Castro
46.7
8.5
4.6
1.0
11.5%
21.2%
.295
92
4.43
109
0.0
RJ Petit
54.7
6.4
3.0
1.2
7.6%
16.4%
.292
89
4.76
113
0.0
Billy Lescher
31.0
7.0
3.5
1.2
8.8%
17.5%
.295
86
4.74
116
0.0
Andrew Vasquez
45.3
8.5
3.6
1.0
9.3%
22.3%
.280
89
4.58
112
0.0
Jace Fry
31.0
9.6
4.9
1.2
12.1%
23.6%
.293
86
4.74
116
-0.1
Trey Wingenter
36.3
9.4
4.2
1.2
10.6%
23.6%
.289
82
4.69
123
-0.1
Tim Naughton
40.0
8.3
5.2
1.1
12.6%
20.3%
.298
82
4.91
122
-0.1
Jake Higginbotham
50.0
6.1
3.6
1.1
9.1%
15.5%
.296
84
4.78
119
-0.1
Heath Hembree
28.0
8.4
4.5
1.3
11.3%
21.0%
.291
82
4.86
121
-0.1
José Cisnero
47.7
8.9
4.3
1.3
10.8%
22.1%
.295
86
4.89
116
-0.1
Bryce Tassin
53.3
5.4
3.2
1.2
8.0%
13.5%
.295
84
5.00
119
-0.2
Angel De Jesus
44.7
8.1
5.0
1.2
12.4%
19.8%
.283
84
5.23
119
-0.2
Braden Bristo
52.0
8.3
5.4
1.2
13.1%
20.3%
.293
82
5.12
122
-0.3
Aneurys Zabala
54.7
10.0
5.9
1.2
14.3%
24.3%
.298
86
5.05
116
-0.3
Layne Henderson
50.7
9.2
6.0
1.2
14.5%
22.1%
.297
82
5.07
121
-0.3
Dario Gardea
47.0
7.1
4.2
1.1
10.4%
17.5%
.296
82
5.06
122
-0.3
Sam Clay
45.7
7.1
4.5
1.2
11.1%
17.3%
.300
80
5.23
125
-0.3
Michael Bienlien
50.7
6.9
5.0
1.2
12.0%
16.7%
.297
80
5.41
126
-0.4
Yaya Chentouf
42.7
6.3
4.4
1.3
10.8%
15.4%
.296
77
5.43
129
-0.4
Chavez Fernander
39.0
5.8
5.1
1.2
12.2%
13.8%
.294
74
5.56
136
-0.4
Andrew Magno
50.3
8.8
6.6
1.1
15.6%
20.7%
.293
79
5.24
126
-0.4
Blair Calvo
52.7
7.9
5.0
1.2
12.1%
19.2%
.299
78
5.29
129
-0.5
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Eduardo Rodriguez
.258
.318
.417
.249
.306
.397
3.0
0.9
3.48
4.89
Tarik Skubal
.237
.272
.320
.231
.286
.388
2.7
1.3
3.10
4.29
Reese Olson
.225
.309
.381
.255
.329
.401
2.4
0.4
3.85
5.16
Sawyer Gipson-Long
.269
.330
.435
.236
.292
.398
2.1
0.5
3.69
5.00
Brant Hurter
.224
.281
.313
.267
.328
.451
1.9
0.5
3.91
5.10
Ty Madden
.259
.346
.429
.240
.306
.389
1.9
0.4
3.99
5.18
Kenta Maeda
.269
.344
.452
.227
.274
.386
1.8
0.3
3.88
5.32
Keider Montero
.242
.313
.395
.260
.337
.424
1.8
0.3
4.10
5.22
Wilmer Flores
.239
.311
.399
.264
.340
.413
1.6
0.4
4.06
5.27
Tyler Holton
.239
.290
.380
.235
.293
.382
1.7
0.2
3.10
4.75
Matt Manning
.244
.321
.419
.257
.310
.410
1.4
0.3
4.05
5.17
Jackson Jobe
.259
.316
.438
.247
.319
.407
1.5
0.3
4.02
5.33
Casey Mize
.263
.335
.486
.237
.289
.366
1.5
0.3
4.06
5.14
Alex Faedo
.248
.304
.439
.253
.311
.414
1.4
0.2
3.91
5.29
Dylan Smith
.259
.322
.393
.267
.318
.442
1.3
0.3
3.99
5.20
Joey Wentz
.273
.340
.432
.246
.325
.424
1.5
-0.3
4.30
5.81
Beau Brieske
.246
.311
.381
.260
.317
.433
1.2
0.2
3.96
5.14
Matthew Boyd
.224
.286
.362
.251
.325
.433
1.2
0.0
3.88
5.57
Brenan Hanifee
.287
.348
.451
.263
.321
.429
1.0
0.0
4.35
5.43
Will Vest
.245
.325
.396
.240
.295
.388
1.0
-0.2
3.28
5.20
Mason Englert
.237
.301
.388
.275
.342
.444
1.1
0.1
4.13
5.25
Brendan White
.241
.314
.372
.245
.320
.409
1.2
-0.2
3.52
5.30
Miguel Diaz
.242
.319
.408
.238
.313
.371
1.1
-0.1
3.48
4.79
Carlos Pena
.240
.322
.375
.275
.350
.454
0.9
-0.2
4.58
5.73
Lael Lockhart
.266
.347
.450
.249
.337
.404
1.0
-0.1
4.44
5.56
Alex Lange
.204
.323
.343
.216
.327
.360
1.2
-0.4
3.35
5.28
Austin Bergner
.240
.329
.411
.265
.351
.438
0.9
-0.3
4.35
5.71
Tyler Mattison
.242
.345
.358
.219
.297
.390
0.8
-0.1
3.72
5.06
Jason Foley
.298
.347
.447
.246
.289
.387
0.7
-0.2
3.67
4.95
Garrett Hill
.233
.343
.404
.263
.344
.431
0.9
-0.4
4.43
5.83
Chance Kirby
.280
.364
.447
.266
.321
.448
0.7
-0.2
4.55
5.62
Zach Logue
.245
.311
.391
.279
.351
.468
0.8
-0.5
4.73
5.96
Spencer Turnbull
.270
.353
.443
.246
.331
.404
0.6
-0.3
4.55
6.04
Sean Guenther
.267
.323
.400
.259
.320
.440
0.5
-0.2
3.87
5.45
Rony García
.234
.327
.383
.247
.339
.433
0.6
-0.2
4.19
5.54
Miguel Del Pozo
.224
.309
.327
.261
.327
.477
0.5
-0.3
3.53
5.28
Ashton Goudeau
.274
.350
.452
.270
.336
.445
0.5
-0.4
4.84
6.08
Adam Wolf
.240
.345
.385
.281
.360
.470
0.5
-0.6
4.76
6.02
Kervin Castro
.264
.354
.402
.223
.321
.372
0.4
-0.4
4.02
5.39
RJ Petit
.267
.333
.419
.259
.328
.429
0.4
-0.4
4.22
5.39
Billy Lescher
.254
.333
.407
.266
.333
.453
0.2
-0.3
4.25
5.90
Andrew Vasquez
.203
.309
.288
.246
.346
.421
0.4
-0.5
3.86
5.75
Jace Fry
.214
.327
.333
.247
.352
.442
0.2
-0.5
4.08
6.17
Trey Wingenter
.221
.329
.382
.250
.337
.431
0.2
-0.5
4.32
6.38
Tim Naughton
.217
.333
.348
.276
.366
.460
0.2
-0.5
4.52
6.06
Jake Higginbotham
.258
.315
.394
.271
.347
.436
0.2
-0.5
4.47
5.84
Heath Hembree
.256
.360
.512
.242
.320
.379
0.1
-0.4
4.35
6.24
José Cisnero
.263
.372
.450
.236
.317
.396
0.4
-0.7
3.95
6.05
Bryce Tassin
.283
.351
.475
.267
.328
.405
0.2
-0.5
4.53
5.70
Angel De Jesus
.238
.365
.425
.247
.343
.398
0.1
-0.6
4.51
5.83
Braden Bristo
.240
.351
.375
.255
.355
.443
0.2
-0.7
4.47
6.16
Aneurys Zabala
.234
.379
.394
.235
.350
.391
0.3
-0.8
4.18
5.80
Layne Henderson
.239
.346
.402
.248
.365
.419
0.2
-1.0
4.35
6.38
Dario Gardea
.267
.376
.407
.253
.330
.434
0.0
-0.6
4.64
5.77
Sam Clay
.227
.338
.364
.284
.373
.466
0.0
-0.8
4.67
6.21
Michael Bienlien
.273
.387
.432
.257
.341
.434
0.0
-0.8
4.82
6.04
Yaya Chentouf
.304
.402
.519
.239
.324
.380
-0.1
-0.8
4.94
6.45
Chavez Fernander
.268
.381
.437
.271
.357
.435
-0.2
-0.7
5.22
6.53
Andrew Magno
.227
.363
.318
.248
.372
.434
0.0
-0.9
4.68
6.33
Blair Calvo
.271
.377
.448
.243
.351
.396
0.0
-1.0
4.72
6.42
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.