For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Colorado Rockies.
Batters
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: the Colorado Rockies will almost certainly be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2024, a prime candidate to get the top pick in next year’s draft lottery. There’s just no way around that conclusion, as the Rockies don’t have the same young depth or big league-quality role players that the Baltimore Orioles had on hand to make their initial burst in 2022 possible.
Still, the team has at least shown signs of life in their decision-making processes over the year or so. Gone — as far as I’m aware — is the ownership talk of winning 94 games. And young players are seeing the field. There were times Ezequiel Tovar struggled mightily at the plate during his rookie season, especially in the first month, but for once, the team avoided panicking and blocking a top prospect with the Chris Owings/José Iglesias-type veterans who hang around Triple-A looking for a big league job. And while it took the franchise a month to get him onto the roster, the Rockies looked for excuses to play Nolan Jones rather than searching for reasons not to. That paid off, with Jones enjoying an excellent rookie season that saw him improve more in the outfield than most expected. A lot of Colorado’s marginal prospects in their 20s struggled, but at least they played. None of Elehuris Montero, Alan Trejo, or Michael Toglia did all that well, but their playing time demonstrated a (possible) change in organizational thinking, as players like them have been marginalized in the past. Think back to Tom Murphy or Mike Tauchman during their time with the Rockies — the team could not have seemed less interested in seeing what they had.
Brenton Doyle rightly won a Gold Glove award, and the defense is probably mostly real; the ZiPS probability-based method for minor league performance had him at 11 runs better than average in 2022 despite this method being intentionally conservative because of its uncertainty. (For those curious, the highest-ranked outfielders in 2023 were Jorge Barrosa and Ceddanne Rafaela.) Doyle’s bat leaves much to be desired, but there’s a real argument to be made that given the size of the Coors outfield, this is a spot where the team should be willing to swap offense for defense.
ZiPS doesn’t expect Jones to regress too much in 2024 — the Sophomore Slump is a myth, but regression toward the mean is not — and projects considerable growth from Tovar, who was extremely young in his debut. ZiPS also expects a typical season from Ryan McMahon, and while it appears that Brendan Rodgers no longer has star upside, he’s a roughly league-average player when healthy.
That isn’t to say that this team has completely avoided mistakes. The Rockies actually made some trades near the deadline, which they almost never did in the past, but if they were ever going to get anything for Elias Díaz, it would have been last July. Coco Montes deserved a longer look, and I think he’d be an interesting pickup for someone (though he did pass through waivers in September).
As for the rest of the lineup… well, things don’t look great. At this point, neither Kris Bryant nor Charlie Blackmon project particularly well. This team is going to have one of the worst offenses in baseball again, and any long-term turnaround is going to require greater creativity than simply waiting for Zac Veen and Drew Romo, both of whom had disappointing 2023 seasons for a variety of reasons, to come and save the day.
Pitchers
Losing Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela to Tommy John makes this group look even worse than it is, but let’s be honest: their arm trouble isn’t what’s keeping the Rockies from being playoff relevant in 2024. Márquez seems the more likely to appear towards the end of the season, having had his procedure a couple months earlier than Senzatela in 2023. Of the pickups the team has made to eat some innings, Dakota Hudson is a groundball pitcher in front of what should be a solidly above-average infield defense, while Cal Quantrill typically isn’t crushable when he struggles. Along with Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner, they’re basically here so that the games will end and the bullpen doesn’t have to throw 1,100 innings.
As for the bullpen… yeah. ZiPS likes Justin Lawrence, Jake Bird, and Jalen Beeks to be around average, with the rest of the relief corps — including any possible interesting minor leaguers — set to be off that standard. But again, like the Orioles from 2019-2021, the 2024 record isn’t the point. Instead of paying too much for relievers who were good two or three years ago, the Rockies should try to accumulate any halfway interesting young thrower under 25, even if they don’t have a clue, and see who has an epiphany. This is a method only lousy teams have the luxury to adopt.
Right now, ZiPS has Colorado in the 64-68 win range, depending on the assumptions you make about who will play, where, and when. The problem with the Rockies hasn’t just been that they’ve been a bad team, but that they’ve been a bad team with no idea of how bad teams become good ones. Being a bad team with a vision would be a tremendous upgrade over the club that frittered away the prime years of some good young talent during the disastrous Jeff Bridich era. And I’m not one who tends toward optimism with this franchise!
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Nolan Jones
L
26
LF
552
480
77
133
29
3
22
84
65
155
14
2
Ryan McMahon
L
29
3B
588
521
73
125
27
2
22
74
61
167
5
3
Ezequiel Tovar
R
22
SS
588
552
75
143
32
4
17
76
28
142
11
4
Brendan Rodgers
R
27
2B
417
383
49
107
21
2
12
51
27
81
0
1
Coco Montes
R
27
2B
514
465
61
114
27
3
14
65
40
144
6
3
Brenton Doyle
R
26
CF
484
451
59
106
17
4
14
61
25
163
18
4
Adael Amador
B
21
SS
434
385
60
105
19
2
10
50
39
61
10
5
Jimmy Herron
R
27
LF
484
429
63
108
21
3
11
59
44
101
17
4
Ryan Ritter
R
23
SS
536
475
70
108
22
3
18
74
41
177
10
3
Sean Bouchard
R
28
RF
333
294
45
75
19
3
12
46
34
88
5
2
Jacob Stallings
R
34
C
312
276
27
67
15
0
5
32
29
69
0
1
Braxton Fulford
R
25
C
354
310
46
73
17
1
7
45
27
94
4
2
Kris Bryant
R
32
RF
402
356
53
96
23
1
13
47
38
84
2
1
Alan Trejo
R
28
2B
366
340
43
85
22
2
10
47
20
86
4
3
Elehuris Montero
R
25
1B
484
442
59
113
21
2
20
71
30
132
0
1
Hunter Stovall
R
27
2B
419
386
45
100
18
3
5
43
26
78
9
4
Yonathan Daza
R
30
CF
347
321
38
93
16
2
3
33
18
55
3
3
Hunter Goodman
R
24
1B
541
495
68
124
33
2
24
87
34
149
1
1
Willie MacIver
R
27
C
336
298
31
64
14
1
6
35
29
99
8
3
Charlie Blackmon
L
37
RF
440
394
53
107
21
4
9
52
34
72
3
1
Braiden Ward
L
25
CF
318
271
49
63
9
2
1
38
20
77
25
5
Ronaiker Palma
R
24
C
251
234
25
60
8
1
1
20
10
33
2
2
Sterlin Thompson
L
23
3B
398
363
44
95
22
1
9
51
24
84
8
2
Roman Quinn
B
31
CF
158
133
19
26
6
2
2
14
16
58
9
2
Jack Blomgren
R
25
2B
240
208
28
48
8
2
3
29
17
73
8
3
Jordan Beck
R
23
LF
548
496
61
121
29
1
15
65
50
148
10
3
Connor Kaiser
R
27
SS
331
296
43
62
13
2
6
33
31
98
7
1
Elias Díaz
R
33
C
417
384
41
99
20
1
12
52
28
88
0
1
Aaron Schunk
R
26
3B
479
444
51
107
21
3
9
53
27
129
6
4
Zach Kokoska
L
25
1B
337
304
40
73
15
2
9
44
22
87
9
4
Cole Tucker
B
27
CF
359
322
42
76
15
3
4
34
33
89
5
3
Drew Romo
B
22
C
413
379
41
97
18
4
7
48
23
83
5
4
Warming Bernabel
R
22
3B
390
368
45
95
21
1
8
45
15
77
3
2
Yorvis Torrealba
R
26
LF
151
138
21
35
7
0
1
14
10
29
6
3
Daniel Cope
R
27
DH
173
156
15
38
7
1
3
19
14
50
0
1
Julio Carreras
R
24
SS
459
417
52
99
23
3
5
46
27
113
8
3
Jameson Hannah
L
26
RF
257
234
28
62
13
2
2
25
18
57
6
1
Kyle Datres
R
28
2B
380
333
42
75
12
2
9
44
35
103
11
2
Bret Boswell
L
29
3B
293
265
27
55
13
2
6
30
25
98
2
1
Yanquiel Fernandez
L
21
RF
545
513
60
126
27
3
17
70
25
146
1
1
Zac Veen
L
22
RF
389
351
41
84
16
3
7
39
32
96
22
4
Niko Decolati
R
26
RF
333
293
42
65
11
1
3
31
30
90
8
3
AJ Lewis
R
26
1B
251
214
23
42
11
0
3
28
23
77
1
2
Trevor Boone
R
26
RF
200
184
20
35
8
3
5
23
12
95
1
1
Grayson Greiner
R
31
C
167
152
14
28
6
0
3
16
12
68
0
1
Jonathan Morales
R
29
1B
366
338
31
84
14
0
7
35
22
63
0
1
Michael Toglia
B
25
1B
530
476
59
105
22
3
17
63
48
155
4
2
Nic Kent
R
24
2B
422
381
42
93
19
1
5
41
23
83
5
4
Eddy Diaz
R
24
2B
378
344
44
81
12
3
2
35
19
88
12
9
Bladimir Restituyo
R
22
CF
470
444
56
113
19
3
9
53
7
96
12
6
Colin Simpson
L
27
DH
287
263
28
59
14
2
6
31
21
86
1
1
Harold Castro
L
30
2B
349
329
34
91
16
1
5
42
14
73
1
1
Taylor Snyder
R
29
3B
347
320
39
67
14
2
10
38
23
119
7
2
Grant Lavigne
L
24
1B
517
458
48
106
19
4
9
55
49
146
2
2
Benny Montgomery
R
21
CF
481
443
51
103
20
3
7
49
31
151
9
3
Daniel Montano
L
25
LF
413
368
40
85
16
5
6
40
39
123
3
2
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Nolan Jones
552
.277
.368
.488
121
.210
.366
6
3.1
.367
90
Ryan McMahon
588
.240
.321
.426
93
.186
.310
11
2.3
.324
74
Ezequiel Tovar
588
.259
.300
.424
87
.165
.321
10
2.2
.311
74
Brendan Rodgers
417
.279
.333
.439
100
.159
.328
1
1.4
.334
56
Coco Montes
514
.245
.311
.406
86
.161
.326
3
1.0
.312
61
Brenton Doyle
484
.235
.280
.384
71
.149
.336
11
0.9
.287
54
Adael Amador
434
.273
.345
.410
97
.138
.303
-6
0.9
.330
59
Jimmy Herron
484
.252
.331
.392
88
.140
.306
7
0.9
.317
61
Ryan Ritter
536
.227
.303
.400
82
.173
.321
0
0.9
.306
61
Sean Bouchard
333
.255
.336
.463
106
.207
.325
1
0.9
.344
48
Jacob Stallings
312
.243
.319
.351
76
.109
.307
5
0.9
.299
31
Braxton Fulford
354
.235
.319
.365
79
.129
.316
2
0.8
.304
38
Kris Bryant
402
.270
.351
.449
108
.180
.320
-5
0.6
.347
57
Alan Trejo
366
.250
.296
.415
83
.165
.307
2
0.5
.306
44
Elehuris Montero
484
.256
.310
.448
95
.192
.321
3
0.5
.325
62
Hunter Stovall
419
.259
.308
.360
74
.101
.314
5
0.4
.293
46
Yonathan Daza
347
.290
.330
.380
86
.090
.342
0
0.4
.311
42
Hunter Goodman
541
.251
.307
.471
99
.220
.311
-2
0.3
.330
72
Willie MacIver
336
.215
.296
.329
63
.114
.301
4
0.3
.279
32
Charlie Blackmon
440
.272
.339
.414
96
.142
.313
-2
0.3
.328
56
Braiden Ward
318
.232
.334
.292
66
.059
.321
0
0.2
.291
34
Ronaiker Palma
251
.256
.290
.312
58
.056
.295
5
0.2
.266
22
Sterlin Thompson
398
.262
.322
.402
88
.140
.319
-6
0.2
.315
49
Roman Quinn
158
.195
.299
.316
61
.120
.329
3
0.2
.278
15
Jack Blomgren
240
.231
.315
.332
70
.101
.341
1
0.1
.291
25
Jordan Beck
548
.244
.312
.397
84
.153
.318
2
0.1
.310
65
Connor Kaiser
331
.209
.288
.328
61
.118
.292
3
0.1
.274
30
Elias Díaz
417
.258
.309
.409
86
.151
.306
-10
0.0
.311
49
Aaron Schunk
479
.241
.288
.363
69
.122
.320
5
0.0
.283
49
Zach Kokoska
337
.240
.307
.391
81
.151
.308
3
0.0
.306
40
Cole Tucker
359
.236
.307
.339
69
.102
.314
1
-0.1
.287
36
Drew Romo
413
.256
.301
.380
77
.124
.311
-6
-0.2
.295
46
Warming Bernabel
390
.258
.295
.386
76
.128
.307
-2
-0.2
.295
43
Yorvis Torrealba
151
.254
.313
.326
68
.072
.315
0
-0.3
.286
17
Daniel Cope
173
.244
.312
.359
75
.115
.340
0
-0.3
.297
18
Julio Carreras
459
.237
.292
.343
66
.106
.314
-2
-0.4
.280
45
Jameson Hannah
257
.265
.320
.363
79
.098
.343
-2
-0.4
.301
29
Kyle Datres
380
.225
.313
.354
75
.129
.299
-7
-0.4
.296
40
Bret Boswell
293
.208
.280
.340
61
.132
.304
1
-0.4
.274
26
Yanquiel Fernandez
545
.246
.283
.409
78
.164
.311
3
-0.5
.295
60
Zac Veen
389
.239
.306
.362
74
.123
.310
-2
-0.5
.294
45
Niko Decolati
333
.222
.307
.297
60
.075
.310
4
-0.5
.275
30
AJ Lewis
251
.196
.308
.290
58
.093
.291
2
-0.6
.277
20
Trevor Boone
200
.190
.250
.348
54
.158
.357
2
-0.7
.260
17
Grayson Greiner
167
.184
.253
.283
40
.099
.309
-2
-0.7
.241
11
Jonathan Morales
366
.249
.295
.352
69
.104
.287
2
-0.8
.284
36
Michael Toglia
530
.221
.294
.387
76
.166
.289
1
-0.8
.296
56
Nic Kent
422
.244
.296
.339
66
.094
.300
-3
-0.8
.280
41
Eddy Diaz
378
.235
.290
.305
56
.070
.311
1
-0.8
.266
37
Bladimir Restituyo
470
.255
.271
.372
66
.117
.307
-2
-0.9
.276
50
Colin Simpson
287
.224
.282
.361
67
.137
.310
0
-0.9
.279
27
Harold Castro
349
.277
.305
.377
77
.100
.343
-10
-0.9
.297
39
Taylor Snyder
347
.209
.265
.359
61
.150
.298
-4
-1.0
.272
33
Grant Lavigne
517
.231
.314
.349
74
.118
.320
0
-1.0
.295
51
Benny Montgomery
481
.233
.291
.339
64
.106
.337
-5
-1.0
.279
47
Daniel Montano
413
.231
.304
.351
71
.120
.331
-3
-1.0
.289
41
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Nolan Jones
.304
.394
.543
139
4.3
.248
.340
.434
101
1.7
Ryan McMahon
.265
.347
.484
113
3.6
.212
.293
.372
75
0.9
Ezequiel Tovar
.285
.325
.484
107
3.6
.234
.276
.377
69
0.9
Brendan Rodgers
.311
.363
.492
122
2.4
.253
.306
.384
82
0.4
Coco Montes
.271
.334
.461
102
2.0
.215
.281
.356
66
-0.2
Brenton Doyle
.264
.308
.438
91
2.1
.207
.255
.335
53
-0.2
Adael Amador
.301
.371
.463
116
1.9
.242
.313
.364
77
-0.1
Jimmy Herron
.280
.358
.444
107
2.1
.225
.301
.343
71
-0.1
Ryan Ritter
.258
.332
.465
106
2.4
.201
.280
.347
64
-0.3
Sean Bouchard
.283
.364
.526
127
1.7
.233
.314
.417
89
0.2
Jacob Stallings
.274
.352
.405
97
1.7
.208
.290
.305
58
0.2
Braxton Fulford
.269
.350
.421
99
1.6
.203
.292
.313
59
0.0
Kris Bryant
.297
.377
.503
127
1.5
.235
.321
.394
84
-0.5
Alan Trejo
.280
.325
.476
103
1.4
.222
.268
.367
64
-0.3
Elehuris Montero
.285
.335
.511
117
1.7
.229
.283
.398
76
-0.6
Hunter Stovall
.288
.339
.409
94
1.5
.228
.278
.319
55
-0.5
Yonathan Daza
.323
.362
.424
104
1.2
.258
.300
.339
69
-0.4
Hunter Goodman
.280
.335
.532
119
1.6
.225
.280
.414
78
-1.1
Willie MacIver
.249
.331
.379
85
1.2
.184
.264
.279
43
-0.6
Charlie Blackmon
.305
.369
.472
116
1.3
.241
.309
.367
75
-0.8
Braiden Ward
.265
.362
.330
82
0.9
.205
.311
.252
52
-0.4
Ronaiker Palma
.293
.328
.359
79
0.9
.220
.255
.273
39
-0.4
Sterlin Thompson
.288
.348
.455
107
1.1
.228
.291
.354
68
-0.7
Roman Quinn
.227
.331
.375
84
0.6
.166
.263
.266
40
-0.2
Jack Blomgren
.263
.340
.388
89
0.6
.202
.285
.291
52
-0.4
Jordan Beck
.270
.339
.448
103
1.3
.216
.281
.344
63
-1.4
Connor Kaiser
.237
.318
.392
82
0.9
.179
.259
.281
42
-0.8
Elias Díaz
.288
.338
.470
107
1.0
.228
.282
.350
65
-1.1
Aaron Schunk
.273
.319
.418
92
1.3
.214
.258
.317
52
-1.1
Zach Kokoska
.272
.339
.452
103
0.9
.214
.281
.343
63
-0.8
Cole Tucker
.264
.335
.385
86
0.6
.208
.278
.295
52
-0.9
Drew Romo
.286
.328
.439
100
0.9
.225
.271
.330
58
-1.2
Warming Bernabel
.287
.322
.439
96
0.8
.229
.269
.343
59
-1.0
Yorvis Torrealba
.281
.340
.370
85
0.0
.227
.287
.290
52
-0.6
Daniel Cope
.272
.341
.410
93
0.0
.206
.275
.302
50
-0.8
Julio Carreras
.265
.321
.384
83
0.7
.209
.269
.296
49
-1.3
Jameson Hannah
.293
.347
.408
96
0.2
.235
.288
.325
61
-1.0
Kyle Datres
.253
.345
.408
94
0.5
.193
.284
.302
54
-1.4
Bret Boswell
.240
.313
.411
86
0.5
.174
.250
.290
40
-1.1
Yanquiel Fernandez
.272
.308
.459
96
0.7
.219
.258
.356
60
-1.8
Zac Veen
.272
.334
.424
97
0.5
.209
.276
.313
57
-1.4
Niko Decolati
.254
.336
.339
76
0.1
.190
.277
.252
40
-1.3
AJ Lewis
.232
.339
.343
79
-0.1
.163
.277
.244
38
-1.2
Trevor Boone
.222
.285
.416
78
-0.1
.157
.223
.284
32
-1.2
Grayson Greiner
.217
.286
.337
61
-0.3
.154
.221
.235
21
-1.1
Jonathan Morales
.280
.327
.400
88
0.1
.221
.269
.309
51
-1.6
Michael Toglia
.251
.320
.435
96
0.4
.192
.267
.332
58
-2.1
Nic Kent
.275
.325
.386
85
0.2
.216
.268
.294
49
-1.7
Eddy Diaz
.261
.320
.350
74
0.0
.206
.262
.265
39
-1.6
Bladimir Restituyo
.283
.300
.414
85
0.3
.227
.244
.333
51
-1.7
Colin Simpson
.253
.310
.421
87
-0.1
.198
.253
.320
50
-1.5
Harold Castro
.307
.336
.421
96
0.0
.248
.276
.332
58
-1.7
Taylor Snyder
.238
.293
.429
85
0.1
.175
.229
.306
40
-1.9
Grant Lavigne
.258
.343
.402
91
0.2
.201
.288
.306
56
-2.1
Benny Montgomery
.262
.318
.387
83
0.1
.207
.264
.295
48
-2.0
Daniel Montano
.259
.335
.399
90
-0.1
.200
.275
.302
52
-2.0
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Nolan Jones
.269
.352
.469
.281
.376
.497
Ryan McMahon
.227
.304
.407
.245
.329
.434
Ezequiel Tovar
.270
.309
.446
.253
.295
.411
Brendan Rodgers
.293
.348
.488
.273
.326
.415
Coco Montes
.250
.323
.422
.242
.304
.396
Brenton Doyle
.244
.290
.406
.229
.273
.369
Adael Amador
.272
.339
.417
.274
.348
.406
Jimmy Herron
.253
.335
.400
.251
.328
.387
Ryan Ritter
.227
.304
.407
.228
.303
.397
Sean Bouchard
.260
.348
.472
.251
.328
.456
Jacob Stallings
.245
.327
.362
.242
.315
.346
Braxton Fulford
.237
.318
.368
.235
.320
.362
Kris Bryant
.277
.358
.479
.267
.348
.439
Alan Trejo
.252
.300
.439
.249
.293
.398
Elehuris Montero
.264
.319
.483
.250
.304
.425
Hunter Stovall
.269
.323
.372
.253
.298
.353
Yonathan Daza
.294
.339
.394
.288
.326
.373
Hunter Goodman
.266
.324
.509
.242
.298
.451
Willie MacIver
.221
.304
.344
.210
.289
.318
Charlie Blackmon
.269
.333
.387
.273
.342
.425
Braiden Ward
.226
.337
.286
.235
.333
.294
Ronaiker Palma
.271
.308
.306
.248
.280
.315
Sterlin Thompson
.252
.316
.369
.265
.324
.415
Roman Quinn
.205
.300
.364
.191
.298
.292
Jack Blomgren
.240
.321
.347
.226
.311
.323
Jordan Beck
.250
.326
.410
.241
.306
.391
Connor Kaiser
.208
.300
.330
.211
.281
.326
Elias Díaz
.262
.316
.418
.256
.306
.405
Aaron Schunk
.243
.295
.379
.240
.284
.353
Zach Kokoska
.229
.302
.354
.245
.310
.409
Cole Tucker
.243
.305
.336
.233
.308
.340
Drew Romo
.259
.301
.385
.254
.301
.377
Warming Bernabel
.267
.307
.397
.253
.288
.380
Yorvis Torrealba
.259
.328
.310
.250
.302
.338
Daniel Cope
.250
.333
.357
.240
.300
.360
Julio Carreras
.242
.297
.354
.234
.289
.336
Jameson Hannah
.256
.306
.372
.269
.327
.359
Kyle Datres
.235
.321
.391
.220
.309
.335
Bret Boswell
.207
.278
.354
.208
.281
.333
Yanquiel Fernandez
.238
.271
.384
.249
.288
.422
Zac Veen
.239
.306
.359
.239
.306
.364
Niko Decolati
.224
.311
.290
.220
.305
.301
AJ Lewis
.207
.316
.293
.189
.303
.288
Trevor Boone
.194
.256
.347
.188
.246
.348
Grayson Greiner
.184
.245
.286
.184
.257
.282
Jonathan Morales
.254
.312
.365
.245
.285
.344
Michael Toglia
.216
.284
.389
.223
.301
.385
Nic Kent
.248
.303
.349
.242
.292
.333
Eddy Diaz
.248
.302
.321
.227
.281
.295
Bladimir Restituyo
.262
.278
.372
.250
.266
.371
Colin Simpson
.217
.267
.361
.228
.289
.361
Harold Castro
.260
.286
.342
.281
.311
.387
Taylor Snyder
.215
.278
.380
.206
.257
.347
Grant Lavigne
.224
.299
.314
.235
.322
.368
Benny Montgomery
.244
.306
.359
.226
.283
.328
Daniel Montano
.224
.286
.336
.235
.314
.359
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Germán Márquez
136.3
7.7
3.0
1.2
7.8%
19.9%
.293
100
4.33
100
1.6
Cal Quantrill
127.7
5.9
3.0
1.3
7.5%
14.8%
.294
96
5.06
104
1.3
Dakota Hudson
123.7
5.5
3.5
1.1
8.8%
13.8%
.285
93
4.95
107
1.2
Anthony Molina
120.3
5.3
2.7
1.3
6.7%
13.2%
.310
93
4.86
107
1.2
Kyle Freeland
137.3
5.7
2.7
1.4
6.8%
14.4%
.307
91
5.10
110
1.1
Tanner Gordon
117.3
5.9
2.5
1.5
6.2%
14.9%
.307
92
4.94
108
1.0
Jeff Criswell
112.0
7.5
3.9
1.4
9.8%
18.5%
.301
91
4.99
110
1.0
Carson Palmquist
93.3
8.7
3.7
1.4
9.3%
22.1%
.300
95
4.85
106
0.9
Joe Rock
98.0
7.1
3.7
1.3
9.2%
17.6%
.302
92
4.95
108
0.9
Antonio Senzatela
99.0
5.5
2.6
1.2
6.6%
14.0%
.313
93
4.76
107
0.9
Gabriel Hughes
83.0
7.0
3.3
1.3
8.2%
17.9%
.302
95
4.72
105
0.9
Austin Gomber
118.3
6.5
2.8
1.5
7.2%
16.7%
.297
89
5.01
112
0.9
Ryan Feltner
92.7
8.1
3.7
1.4
9.3%
20.3%
.304
92
4.76
108
0.9
Nick Bush
75.0
6.7
2.3
1.6
5.9%
17.3%
.303
90
4.82
111
0.6
Chris McMahon
78.0
5.9
2.8
1.4
6.9%
14.7%
.311
89
4.99
112
0.6
Connor Seabold
100.7
7.8
2.5
1.4
6.3%
19.7%
.316
88
4.70
113
0.6
Connor Van Scoyoc
102.0
6.0
3.7
1.4
9.0%
14.6%
.303
85
5.46
117
0.6
Peter Lambert
95.3
7.4
3.6
1.4
9.0%
18.4%
.304
88
5.05
113
0.6
Justin Lawrence
69.3
9.9
4.2
1.0
10.6%
25.1%
.301
104
4.25
96
0.5
Jalen Beeks
63.3
8.7
3.6
1.4
8.8%
21.6%
.317
95
4.71
105
0.5
Jake Bird
77.7
7.8
3.4
1.2
8.6%
19.8%
.301
100
4.59
100
0.4
Ty Blach
87.0
5.8
2.3
1.4
5.7%
14.5%
.320
87
4.92
116
0.4
Mitchell Kilkenny
72.3
5.0
2.7
1.4
6.8%
12.4%
.308
87
5.20
115
0.4
Case Williams
104.0
5.4
3.9
1.5
9.4%
13.0%
.307
82
5.63
122
0.4
Ryan Rolison
57.7
6.6
3.6
1.6
8.8%
16.1%
.310
84
5.35
118
0.3
Andrew Quezada
87.7
5.0
3.5
1.4
8.4%
12.2%
.310
83
5.51
121
0.3
Karl Kauffmann
112.0
5.5
4.2
1.3
10.1%
13.4%
.308
81
5.46
124
0.3
Josh Rogers
94.7
4.6
3.0
1.7
7.6%
11.3%
.296
82
5.85
122
0.2
Will Ethridge
66.7
5.5
3.6
1.4
8.9%
13.5%
.303
82
5.46
122
0.2
Lucas Gilbreath
53.3
8.6
5.4
1.4
13.0%
20.7%
.309
88
5.26
114
0.2
Noah Davis
89.7
6.7
4.4
1.4
10.8%
16.4%
.304
80
5.70
125
0.2
Tyler Kinley
37.3
8.7
3.6
1.4
9.1%
22.0%
.298
94
4.70
107
0.1
Blake Goldsberry
38.3
7.3
3.5
1.4
8.8%
18.2%
.302
92
5.00
109
0.1
Dylan Spain
37.0
6.3
2.7
1.5
6.7%
16.0%
.305
93
5.09
108
0.1
Victor Vodnik
46.3
8.5
5.1
1.4
12.2%
20.7%
.303
90
5.13
111
0.1
Gavin Hollowell
52.0
9.2
3.6
1.4
9.3%
23.5%
.303
95
4.72
106
0.1
Dugan Darnell
49.7
8.3
3.8
1.3
9.5%
20.8%
.308
94
4.62
107
0.1
Nick Mears
39.3
10.1
5.5
1.4
13.4%
24.6%
.304
94
4.98
106
0.1
Colten Schmidt
30.3
4.7
3.0
1.5
7.4%
11.8%
.314
80
5.53
125
0.1
Thomas Ponticelli
63.3
6.1
4.1
1.4
9.9%
14.7%
.304
83
5.51
120
0.1
Seth Halvorsen
16.3
5.5
2.8
1.1
7.0%
14.1%
.296
96
4.54
104
0.0
Austin Kitchen
57.7
5.3
2.7
1.4
6.6%
13.3%
.309
89
5.20
112
0.0
Chase Anderson
66.7
6.9
4.2
1.8
10.2%
16.8%
.304
76
5.84
131
0.0
Reagan Todd
38.7
9.3
4.9
1.4
12.0%
22.9%
.305
93
5.07
108
0.0
Matt Koch
59.7
7.2
3.2
1.5
7.9%
18.0%
.314
85
5.08
118
0.0
Chance Adams
43.7
5.8
3.3
1.4
8.2%
14.4%
.308
82
5.36
122
0.0
Mike Ruff
72.0
5.8
4.6
1.5
11.0%
13.7%
.302
76
6.10
132
-0.1
Geoff Hartlieb
44.0
7.2
4.1
1.4
9.9%
17.3%
.304
86
5.30
116
-0.1
Eli Lingos
49.7
5.8
4.0
1.4
9.7%
14.1%
.307
84
5.45
118
-0.1
Kyle Johnston
52.0
6.6
5.2
1.4
12.2%
15.5%
.305
81
5.81
124
-0.1
Stephen Jones
58.3
7.9
4.0
1.4
9.9%
19.5%
.306
90
5.11
111
-0.1
Daniel Bard
44.7
9.3
5.6
1.4
13.7%
22.5%
.298
87
5.45
115
-0.1
Adam McKillican
33.3
6.2
3.8
1.4
9.3%
15.2%
.302
84
5.36
119
-0.1
Ben Braymer
62.0
5.1
4.9
1.6
11.6%
11.9%
.308
74
6.22
135
-0.1
PJ Poulin
50.0
6.8
4.3
1.3
10.7%
16.9%
.303
88
5.18
114
-0.1
Phillips Valdez
54.0
6.0
5.0
1.5
11.8%
14.2%
.307
75
6.20
133
-0.2
Alec Barger
47.7
7.7
4.9
1.5
11.8%
18.6%
.308
84
5.54
119
-0.2
Matt Carasiti
43.0
7.5
4.2
1.5
10.0%
18.0%
.318
81
5.30
123
-0.2
Brendan Hardy
28.0
10.0
7.1
1.3
16.2%
22.8%
.301
82
5.68
122
-0.2
Jacob Kostyshock
22.0
6.5
4.5
1.6
10.9%
15.8%
.304
77
6.35
129
-0.2
Evan Justice
42.0
10.3
6.2
1.5
14.6%
24.2%
.306
82
5.71
122
-0.3
Will Gaddis
53.3
3.7
4.2
1.5
9.9%
8.7%
.314
74
6.09
135
-0.3
Michael Petersen
37.3
8.0
5.8
1.7
13.6%
18.8%
.303
76
6.17
132
-0.4
Bryce McGowan
42.0
7.7
6.4
1.5
14.7%
17.6%
.304
76
6.06
131
-0.4
Riley Pint
50.3
10.2
7.0
1.4
16.0%
23.4%
.295
80
5.86
124
-0.4
Nick Kennedy
42.3
5.7
5.1
1.5
12.0%
13.5%
.302
77
6.11
130
-0.4
Kyle Wilcox
42.0
9.0
7.3
1.5
16.3%
20.2%
.302
76
5.99
131
-0.4
Nick Kuzia
47.7
6.6
5.1
1.5
12.1%
15.6%
.302
79
6.05
127
-0.4
Shelby Lackey
23.3
7.7
8.5
1.5
18.5%
16.8%
.294
65
7.24
154
-0.5
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Germán Márquez
.270
.338
.431
.235
.287
.404
2.3
0.8
4.23
5.44
Cal Quantrill
.265
.336
.451
.281
.335
.454
1.8
0.6
4.52
5.60
Dakota Hudson
.272
.352
.443
.255
.319
.400
1.8
0.6
4.10
4.98
Anthony Molina
.298
.352
.483
.281
.324
.449
1.7
0.6
4.60
5.68
Kyle Freeland
.280
.329
.455
.288
.342
.481
1.8
0.3
4.71
5.99
Tanner Gordon
.277
.329
.459
.292
.333
.488
1.7
0.5
4.59
5.63
Jeff Criswell
.262
.345
.437
.267
.336
.458
1.5
0.2
4.74
5.95
Carson Palmquist
.248
.336
.385
.256
.340
.450
1.5
0.2
4.42
5.78
Joe Rock
.261
.338
.417
.271
.344
.451
1.4
0.4
4.64
5.71
Antonio Senzatela
.286
.347
.457
.290
.335
.459
1.3
0.4
4.61
5.67
Gabriel Hughes
.282
.343
.468
.256
.318
.420
1.3
0.4
4.44
5.64
Austin Gomber
.250
.299
.397
.282
.338
.497
1.5
0.2
4.70
6.02
Ryan Feltner
.259
.337
.440
.264
.330
.443
1.4
0.3
4.58
5.77
Nick Bush
.278
.327
.467
.277
.317
.479
1.0
0.1
4.71
6.02
Chris McMahon
.307
.367
.484
.269
.315
.461
1.0
0.2
4.81
5.94
Connor Seabold
.272
.343
.461
.278
.325
.458
1.2
0.1
4.69
6.02
Connor Van Scoyoc
.278
.366
.460
.282
.350
.475
1.0
0.1
5.18
6.07
Peter Lambert
.272
.356
.478
.267
.330
.431
1.1
0.1
4.82
5.92
Justin Lawrence
.246
.347
.413
.227
.317
.355
1.1
-0.2
3.81
5.50
Jalen Beeks
.257
.325
.446
.272
.343
.450
1.1
-0.1
4.12
5.97
Jake Bird
.264
.348
.451
.253
.322
.395
0.9
-0.2
4.18
5.53
Ty Blach
.274
.320
.416
.306
.348
.516
0.8
-0.1
4.93
6.16
Mitchell Kilkenny
.276
.333
.448
.307
.357
.503
0.7
0.0
5.05
6.03
Case Williams
.286
.365
.500
.293
.358
.472
0.8
-0.2
5.34
6.34
Ryan Rolison
.286
.354
.471
.283
.348
.482
0.6
0.0
5.11
6.34
Andrew Quezada
.307
.380
.524
.284
.341
.452
0.8
-0.1
5.24
6.35
Karl Kauffmann
.308
.397
.524
.268
.337
.416
0.7
-0.3
5.47
6.44
Josh Rogers
.250
.297
.406
.313
.375
.550
0.6
-0.4
5.36
6.48
Will Ethridge
.295
.378
.488
.273
.340
.448
0.5
-0.2
5.37
6.40
Lucas Gilbreath
.240
.348
.440
.272
.371
.434
0.6
-0.2
4.74
6.17
Noah Davis
.285
.392
.517
.265
.350
.407
0.6
-0.4
5.39
6.69
Tyler Kinley
.232
.312
.449
.273
.337
.442
0.5
-0.3
4.19
6.23
Blake Goldsberry
.257
.333
.429
.277
.344
.470
0.4
-0.2
4.52
6.10
Dylan Spain
.265
.324
.485
.293
.352
.463
0.3
-0.1
4.61
5.83
Victor Vodnik
.259
.370
.435
.255
.339
.439
0.4
-0.3
4.61
6.00
Gavin Hollowell
.263
.358
.463
.241
.314
.398
0.5
-0.4
4.14
5.97
Dugan Darnell
.253
.333
.451
.267
.339
.419
0.4
-0.3
4.40
6.05
Nick Mears
.257
.373
.457
.232
.333
.402
0.4
-0.3
4.34
6.06
Colten Schmidt
.275
.341
.400
.314
.368
.547
0.2
-0.1
5.32
6.80
Thomas Ponticelli
.281
.362
.446
.279
.357
.493
0.4
-0.4
5.19
6.43
Seth Halvorsen
.281
.343
.438
.265
.297
.412
0.2
-0.1
4.17
5.86
Austin Kitchen
.250
.315
.375
.312
.363
.522
0.3
-0.3
4.80
5.93
Chase Anderson
.250
.343
.435
.306
.376
.551
0.3
-0.5
5.56
7.15
Reagan Todd
.260
.351
.360
.248
.353
.475
0.3
-0.3
4.29
6.06
Matt Koch
.268
.346
.455
.290
.343
.481
0.4
-0.4
4.76
6.38
Chance Adams
.286
.362
.476
.287
.346
.479
0.2
-0.4
5.11
6.54
Mike Ruff
.282
.387
.504
.284
.374
.463
0.3
-0.5
5.73
6.95
Geoff Hartlieb
.282
.358
.494
.261
.349
.424
0.2
-0.4
4.86
6.57
Eli Lingos
.284
.355
.418
.287
.355
.500
0.2
-0.4
5.06
6.40
Kyle Johnston
.268
.379
.423
.283
.374
.487
0.2
-0.5
5.31
6.69
Stephen Jones
.269
.358
.481
.264
.342
.419
0.3
-0.5
4.65
6.05
Daniel Bard
.253
.373
.462
.241
.357
.398
0.3
-0.7
4.48
7.18
Adam McKillican
.290
.380
.484
.264
.333
.444
0.0
-0.3
5.08
6.46
Ben Braymer
.280
.362
.463
.303
.391
.520
0.2
-0.5
5.91
7.16
PJ Poulin
.254
.338
.388
.278
.362
.466
0.2
-0.5
4.68
6.10
Phillips Valdez
.296
.402
.510
.276
.375
.447
0.1
-0.5
5.70
7.17
Alec Barger
.286
.371
.484
.257
.356
.446
0.1
-0.5
5.09
6.42
Matt Carasiti
.304
.396
.506
.260
.333
.438
0.1
-0.6
5.10
6.94
Brendan Hardy
.264
.400
.472
.218
.371
.364
0.0
-0.5
5.09
6.71
Jacob Kostyshock
.273
.385
.500
.289
.389
.489
-0.1
-0.4
5.57
6.87
Evan Justice
.216
.355
.314
.259
.391
.491
0.1
-0.6
4.96
6.73
Will Gaddis
.320
.398
.515
.303
.363
.516
-0.1
-0.6
5.90
7.13
Michael Petersen
.257
.373
.429
.278
.389
.519
-0.1
-0.7
5.39
7.49
Bryce McGowan
.266
.402
.456
.270
.371
.461
-0.1
-0.7
5.46
7.09
Riley Pint
.239
.369
.446
.235
.397
.402
0.0
-1.0
5.10
7.09
Nick Kennedy
.254
.362
.407
.298
.391
.509
-0.2
-0.7
5.59
7.04
Kyle Wilcox
.266
.408
.468
.244
.365
.430
0.0
-0.9
5.16
7.66
Nick Kuzia
.314
.412
.581
.245
.352
.377
-0.2
-0.9
5.38
6.90
Shelby Lackey
.273
.429
.455
.250
.422
.479
-0.3
-0.7
6.49
8.79
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.