For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cleveland Guardians.
Batters
Going through the Guardians’ projections this winter reminds me quite a bit of going through the Diamondbacks’ projections last year, when I wrote:
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: ZiPS really, really likes the Diamondbacks. As I mentioned in the early standings run I did a few weeks ago, I actually went back and re-checked everything that was Arizona-specific to make sure that the optimism was correct, and while I can’t say for sure that the computer’s love for this roster is warranted, I can at least say that it was properly generated!
Obviously, Cleveland and Arizona aren’t in identical situations — the Guardians don’t have a Corbin Carroll equivalent about to hit the majors — but there’s a surprising lot to like about this team if you’re a believer in the ZiPS projections.
I guess we can start with the weakest part of the offense: the outfield. While center and right field project as extremely ordinary, ZiPS has a long history of cordially disliking Cleveland’s outfield, and this is far from some of the trash fires we’ve seen in past projections. Bottom line, these are the Guardians’ best outfield ZiPS projections since 2015, back in Michael Brantley’s prime. Last year, Steven Kwan projecting for a 103 OPS+ caused a good bit of consternation, but he finished 2023 at 100, serving as a reminder that BABIP Regression is second only to the eternal meat grinder known as time in its deadliness. The scouts, however, may have defeated ZiPS in terms of George Valera, and after a .211/.343/.375 line, the computer has jumped off the bandwagon (even accounting for the fact that at least some of that was probably due to nagging hamstring and wrist injuries).
ZiPS remains a big fan of Andrés Giménez, and based on his peripherals, sees his 2022 as being a lot closer to who he is than his weaker 2023 season. Also helping his projection is the fact that he’s still young enough to have some unknown upside remaining.
Cleveland doesn’t project as having serious holes anywhere else in the lineup, either. ZiPS isn’t quite as interested in Kyle Manzardo as it was a year ago, but he still projects as a league-average first baseman, and Josh Naylor still projects as a solid player even if 2023 may have been a career year. José Ramírez remains José Ramírez, and Austin Hedges‘ projection isn’t bad enough to counteract all the good in Bo Naylor’s forecast.
Pitchers
Teams don’t typically give me their projections, but I’d be especially interested in how ZiPS compares to the Guardians’ internal projections here — I wonder how much those numbers are what made them comfortable with trading Aaron Civale while still technically in a playoff race and at least listening to offers for Shane Bieber. The Guardians have some really solid defensive players, which is reflected in their pitching projections; from the ERA-FIP differences, ZiPS thinks Cleveland will be a +25 run defensive team in 2024. Even ignoring Daniel Espino’s projection given the nature of his shoulder injury and assuming a Bieber trade (which very well might not happen), Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams project as a solid rotation by themselves. Williams is the big name, but ZiPS likes Cleveland’s second-tier pitching prospects to be able to get some innings in and avoid train-wreck status.
Running down the top nine names on our depth charts for Cleveland’s ‘pen, the worst projected ERA of the bunch is Cody Morris‘ at 4.19 and even that’s misleading, as it still includes some starts that project for a higher ERA. The Guardians are the 16th team to receive a ZiPS projection this offseason; of those 16, they have the third-best projected bullpen, behind the Braves and Rays.
All in all, ZiPS projects a very strong bounce back from the team’s 76 wins in 2023, and unless the computer’s missing on its sleeper pick this year, the Twins shouldn’t rest too easy on their nine-game lead. Some people might have the Royals as a sleeper pick given their activity in free agency, but I think Cleveland’s got a case for being built significantly better from tip to tail.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
José Ramírez
B
31
3B
649
571
90
158
38
4
26
95
68
76
22
5
Andrés Giménez
L
25
2B
585
523
71
142
27
4
15
71
33
109
25
5
Steven Kwan
L
26
LF
677
602
87
165
29
7
5
60
64
67
18
4
Bo Naylor
L
24
C
488
425
62
96
21
3
16
61
57
125
7
2
Brayan Rocchio
B
23
SS
602
546
77
136
30
4
9
65
44
110
14
6
Josh Naylor
L
27
1B
518
470
54
129
30
0
20
79
39
73
7
2
Ramón Laureano
R
29
RF
414
368
52
85
20
2
13
48
33
112
11
3
Myles Straw
R
29
CF
533
478
63
119
21
2
2
36
46
92
21
5
Jean Segura
R
34
3B
400
366
41
95
13
2
6
35
27
61
7
3
Kyle Manzardo
L
23
1B
386
333
53
83
21
1
13
50
42
78
0
1
Tyler Freeman
R
25
2B
346
309
45
79
14
1
4
41
21
48
9
1
Juan Brito
B
22
2B
562
493
66
116
28
2
9
57
56
108
5
6
Will Brennan
L
26
RF
497
459
52
123
26
2
7
54
28
68
12
4
Angel Martinez
B
22
2B
575
518
58
119
23
4
10
62
38
131
7
3
Mike Zunino
R
33
C
244
219
28
43
10
1
12
31
20
94
0
1
Gabriel Arias
R
24
SS
418
383
47
88
17
1
12
46
29
114
4
3
David Fry
R
28
3B
372
336
41
80
20
2
10
45
26
90
2
1
Daniel Schneemann
L
27
3B
438
394
47
90
18
1
7
41
37
109
10
2
Austin Hedges
R
31
C
271
239
22
47
6
0
5
21
17
68
1
1
George Valera
L
23
CF
435
379
50
87
14
2
12
49
49
129
2
2
Alfonso Rivas
L
27
1B
391
341
40
81
18
2
6
40
42
102
5
0
Kole Calhoun
L
36
RF
376
338
41
74
16
2
10
40
30
94
1
1
José Tena
L
23
SS
511
471
54
107
23
3
8
53
30
154
8
5
Johnathan Rodriguez
R
24
RF
514
473
50
109
21
3
16
68
34
166
2
1
Nate Furman
L
22
2B
463
399
63
96
11
2
0
36
45
72
17
3
Chase DeLauter
L
22
CF
254
234
26
61
18
0
3
28
16
40
3
2
Micah Pries
L
26
1B
451
408
49
93
21
4
10
55
31
119
5
3
Milan Tolentino
L
22
SS
465
419
48
86
21
1
3
38
40
151
10
1
Micael Ramirez
R
25
C
262
238
26
53
10
0
1
18
21
47
1
1
Deyvison De Los Santos
R
21
3B
526
499
54
115
18
1
16
59
21
164
2
1
Joe Lampe
L
23
CF
476
428
36
93
17
3
3
37
38
115
12
1
Jake Fox
L
21
CF
478
432
54
94
22
4
5
43
39
126
6
3
Bryan Lavastida
R
25
C
420
374
48
87
17
2
7
44
34
94
8
3
Sandy León
B
35
C
159
140
11
27
5
0
2
11
15
45
0
1
Dayan Frias
B
22
3B
460
413
41
89
17
2
6
41
40
126
4
3
Cam Gallagher
R
31
C
152
140
11
28
8
0
1
10
9
40
0
1
Kahlil Watson
L
21
SS
371
334
42
69
15
2
10
45
28
134
12
2
Raynel Delgado
L
24
2B
424
383
40
83
14
2
5
37
33
110
9
6
Aaron Bracho
L
23
2B
398
360
34
73
14
1
10
41
31
120
1
1
Michael Berglund
L
26
C
214
187
18
32
6
0
3
18
21
85
1
1
Marcos Gonzalez
R
24
2B
158
144
16
31
7
0
3
17
9
49
0
1
Jhonkensy Noel
R
22
LF
587
534
69
116
26
1
20
77
39
169
1
2
Gabriel Rodriguez
R
22
3B
332
296
34
60
10
2
4
29
27
103
1
1
Connor Kokx
R
24
LF
377
331
45
69
14
1
3
35
32
99
14
4
Zack Collins
L
29
DH
421
366
41
73
20
1
9
40
50
148
2
1
Cesar Idrogo
B
23
RF
160
148
16
33
6
0
1
13
10
40
2
1
Michael Amditis
R
26
C
141
126
12
22
5
0
2
9
13
52
0
1
Julian Escobedo
L
26
CF
305
276
34
56
13
1
4
29
20
88
7
3
Eric Rodriguez
R
25
C
121
112
7
21
4
0
1
9
6
36
0
1
Jose Acosta
B
24
2B
253
230
28
46
10
2
4
25
12
87
5
5
Petey Halpin
L
22
CF
514
471
53
101
20
3
6
47
35
145
8
3
Joe Naranjo
L
23
1B
427
379
37
78
14
1
5
39
41
129
1
1
Joe Donovan
R
25
C
219
201
21
38
9
1
3
22
11
78
1
1
Alexfri Planez
R
22
LF
331
314
33
66
15
0
8
40
11
93
3
1
Korey Holland
R
24
LF
316
290
29
56
11
3
5
30
21
130
6
3
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
José Ramírez
649
.277
.354
.494
136
.217
.281
4
5.0
.354
106
Andrés Giménez
585
.272
.339
.424
114
.153
.318
14
4.6
.331
82
Steven Kwan
677
.274
.346
.370
103
.096
.302
11
2.7
.317
82
Bo Naylor
488
.226
.322
.402
103
.176
.282
1
2.4
.316
57
Brayan Rocchio
602
.249
.313
.368
91
.119
.297
1
1.9
.300
68
Josh Naylor
518
.274
.332
.466
122
.191
.289
1
1.9
.338
75
Ramón Laureano
414
.231
.314
.402
100
.171
.296
6
1.4
.314
50
Myles Straw
533
.249
.315
.314
79
.065
.305
8
1.4
.283
54
Jean Segura
400
.260
.318
.355
90
.096
.298
5
1.3
.297
44
Kyle Manzardo
386
.249
.334
.435
115
.186
.289
2
1.2
.331
49
Tyler Freeman
346
.256
.328
.346
91
.091
.292
1
1.1
.302
37
Juan Brito
562
.235
.318
.355
90
.120
.285
0
1.0
.298
59
Will Brennan
497
.268
.316
.379
95
.111
.302
4
1.0
.303
59
Angel Martinez
575
.230
.290
.347
79
.118
.289
6
0.9
.280
55
Mike Zunino
244
.196
.275
.416
91
.219
.274
2
0.9
.297
25
Gabriel Arias
418
.230
.289
.373
85
.144
.296
1
0.9
.290
43
David Fry
372
.238
.305
.399
96
.161
.297
-1
0.9
.306
42
Daniel Schneemann
438
.228
.296
.332
77
.104
.299
5
0.8
.279
42
Austin Hedges
271
.197
.256
.285
52
.088
.253
10
0.5
.242
18
George Valera
435
.230
.322
.372
95
.142
.315
-8
0.4
.306
47
Alfonso Rivas
391
.238
.328
.355
93
.117
.322
-1
0.2
.304
41
Kole Calhoun
376
.219
.290
.367
84
.148
.274
3
0.2
.288
37
José Tena
511
.227
.279
.340
73
.113
.320
-1
0.1
.272
48
Johnathan Rodriguez
514
.230
.288
.389
89
.159
.320
1
0.1
.293
54
Nate Furman
463
.241
.336
.278
77
.038
.294
-7
0.0
.285
42
Chase DeLauter
254
.261
.311
.376
93
.115
.304
-5
0.0
.299
29
Micah Pries
451
.228
.297
.373
87
.145
.297
2
0.0
.293
47
Milan Tolentino
465
.205
.277
.282
59
.076
.313
3
0.0
.252
35
Micael Ramirez
262
.223
.290
.277
62
.055
.274
0
0.0
.258
20
Deyvison De Los Santos
526
.230
.264
.367
75
.136
.310
0
0.0
.273
49
Joe Lampe
476
.217
.290
.292
65
.075
.290
2
-0.1
.263
39
Jake Fox
478
.218
.287
.322
71
.104
.296
0
-0.1
.271
42
Bryan Lavastida
420
.233
.304
.345
83
.112
.293
-11
-0.1
.287
42
Sandy León
159
.193
.278
.271
56
.079
.269
0
-0.1
.252
11
Dayan Frias
460
.215
.288
.310
69
.094
.295
2
-0.1
.267
39
Cam Gallagher
152
.200
.252
.279
50
.079
.273
2
-0.2
.237
10
Kahlil Watson
371
.207
.278
.353
76
.147
.311
-7
-0.2
.277
36
Raynel Delgado
424
.217
.284
.303
66
.086
.291
2
-0.2
.263
37
Aaron Bracho
398
.203
.271
.331
69
.128
.274
0
-0.3
.266
33
Michael Berglund
214
.171
.271
.251
49
.080
.293
0
-0.3
.243
13
Marcos Gonzalez
158
.215
.274
.326
69
.111
.304
-3
-0.4
.266
13
Jhonkensy Noel
587
.217
.283
.382
85
.165
.278
-2
-0.5
.289
59
Gabriel Rodriguez
332
.203
.279
.291
61
.088
.296
1
-0.5
.256
25
Connor Kokx
377
.208
.301
.284
67
.076
.288
1
-0.5
.269
33
Zack Collins
421
.199
.297
.333
78
.134
.306
0
-0.6
.281
37
Cesar Idrogo
160
.223
.275
.284
58
.061
.299
0
-0.6
.251
12
Michael Amditis
141
.175
.255
.262
47
.087
.278
-3
-0.7
.236
9
Julian Escobedo
305
.203
.271
.301
61
.098
.283
-2
-0.7
.256
25
Eric Rodriguez
121
.188
.233
.250
37
.063
.267
-3
-0.8
.217
7
Jose Acosta
253
.200
.251
.313
58
.113
.302
-2
-0.8
.248
21
Petey Halpin
514
.214
.271
.308
63
.093
.297
-2
-0.9
.257
42
Joe Naranjo
427
.206
.290
.288
64
.082
.298
2
-1.1
.262
32
Joe Donovan
219
.189
.251
.289
52
.100
.292
-7
-1.1
.241
15
Alexfri Planez
331
.210
.245
.334
61
.124
.272
0
-1.2
.250
27
Korey Holland
316
.193
.251
.303
55
.110
.329
-1
-1.4
.245
25
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
José Ramírez
.302
.380
.551
155
6.5
.257
.330
.448
118
3.4
Andrés Giménez
.295
.366
.473
133
6.0
.244
.314
.378
96
3.3
Steven Kwan
.302
.376
.413
123
4.4
.246
.320
.332
86
1.3
Bo Naylor
.254
.349
.461
125
3.7
.196
.292
.348
82
1.2
Brayan Rocchio
.274
.338
.416
110
3.3
.226
.289
.332
75
0.7
Josh Naylor
.304
.362
.520
144
3.4
.252
.308
.413
101
0.5
Ramón Laureano
.257
.340
.452
120
2.5
.203
.289
.350
80
0.4
Myles Straw
.273
.338
.345
93
2.4
.223
.288
.281
63
0.2
Jean Segura
.284
.345
.391
105
2.1
.230
.291
.312
72
0.4
Kyle Manzardo
.276
.363
.485
138
2.3
.225
.311
.378
95
0.3
Tyler Freeman
.285
.354
.388
109
1.9
.228
.302
.308
74
0.4
Juan Brito
.259
.348
.402
109
2.4
.204
.289
.308
68
-0.4
Will Brennan
.296
.344
.420
112
2.1
.237
.287
.333
75
-0.2
Angel Martinez
.254
.314
.386
94
2.1
.205
.266
.304
61
-0.3
Mike Zunino
.222
.299
.495
115
1.6
.171
.248
.350
67
0.2
Gabriel Arias
.256
.315
.425
106
1.9
.205
.265
.330
69
0.0
David Fry
.267
.331
.448
115
1.7
.211
.278
.347
76
-0.1
Daniel Schneemann
.256
.323
.382
98
1.9
.203
.268
.297
59
-0.2
Austin Hedges
.222
.283
.335
70
1.2
.171
.226
.251
36
0.0
George Valera
.259
.353
.422
116
1.4
.204
.293
.325
76
-0.7
Alfonso Rivas
.260
.353
.398
111
1.1
.209
.298
.313
74
-0.7
Kole Calhoun
.245
.317
.421
105
1.2
.192
.260
.315
64
-0.8
José Tena
.251
.304
.390
92
1.3
.203
.256
.301
57
-0.9
Johnathan Rodriguez
.255
.311
.438
108
1.3
.204
.261
.345
69
-1.2
Nate Furman
.269
.366
.311
93
1.1
.211
.308
.243
59
-1.0
Chase DeLauter
.289
.339
.421
112
0.6
.235
.285
.333
75
-0.5
Micah Pries
.255
.318
.419
105
1.0
.204
.272
.334
71
-0.9
Milan Tolentino
.229
.301
.323
76
1.0
.181
.250
.249
43
-1.0
Micael Ramirez
.254
.323
.315
79
0.6
.192
.259
.244
44
-0.6
Deyvison De Los Santos
.264
.296
.423
98
1.5
.203
.238
.319
57
-1.3
Joe Lampe
.247
.318
.337
85
1.1
.192
.267
.255
48
-1.0
Jake Fox
.245
.311
.362
89
0.9
.192
.261
.280
53
-1.2
Bryan Lavastida
.262
.333
.394
104
1.0
.204
.278
.306
66
-1.0
Sandy León
.226
.307
.312
74
0.2
.166
.248
.233
39
-0.5
Dayan Frias
.244
.313
.350
88
0.8
.191
.262
.271
51
-1.1
Cam Gallagher
.230
.284
.326
71
0.2
.173
.222
.239
31
-0.5
Kahlil Watson
.238
.307
.414
100
0.9
.175
.249
.301
55
-1.2
Raynel Delgado
.243
.311
.346
84
0.8
.194
.263
.267
51
-1.0
Aaron Bracho
.234
.304
.392
95
0.9
.176
.243
.286
50
-1.3
Michael Berglund
.199
.302
.298
68
0.2
.142
.241
.212
30
-0.9
Marcos Gonzalez
.242
.300
.371
87
0.0
.191
.249
.284
51
-0.7
Jhonkensy Noel
.243
.310
.437
105
1.0
.188
.255
.340
67
-1.9
Gabriel Rodriguez
.234
.306
.337
80
0.3
.174
.249
.245
41
-1.3
Connor Kokx
.236
.325
.328
83
0.3
.187
.273
.249
50
-1.3
Zack Collins
.224
.320
.375
96
0.4
.172
.267
.286
58
-1.7
Cesar Idrogo
.249
.301
.321
75
-0.3
.196
.246
.246
41
-1.0
Michael Amditis
.202
.288
.308
67
-0.3
.145
.227
.220
27
-1.0
Julian Escobedo
.229
.301
.344
80
0.0
.177
.243
.264
43
-1.3
Eric Rodriguez
.218
.267
.290
55
-0.5
.156
.204
.209
17
-1.1
Jose Acosta
.225
.274
.363
78
-0.2
.171
.223
.262
37
-1.4
Petey Halpin
.242
.295
.346
79
0.2
.189
.242
.269
45
-2.0
Joe Naranjo
.232
.315
.330
82
-0.2
.179
.259
.251
45
-2.1
Joe Donovan
.223
.284
.341
75
-0.5
.159
.219
.243
30
-1.7
Alexfri Planez
.239
.271
.379
80
-0.4
.184
.216
.291
44
-2.0
Korey Holland
.220
.276
.352
76
-0.6
.165
.223
.257
37
-2.2
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
José Ramírez
.277
.351
.484
.276
.356
.499
Andrés Giménez
.267
.339
.407
.273
.339
.432
Steven Kwan
.267
.335
.350
.277
.351
.379
Bo Naylor
.213
.308
.367
.233
.329
.422
Brayan Rocchio
.243
.312
.367
.253
.313
.369
Josh Naylor
.260
.317
.433
.280
.338
.478
Ramón Laureano
.240
.324
.411
.226
.309
.397
Myles Straw
.248
.317
.321
.249
.314
.310
Jean Segura
.262
.331
.374
.259
.313
.347
Kyle Manzardo
.236
.323
.400
.256
.340
.453
Tyler Freeman
.254
.325
.355
.257
.330
.339
Juan Brito
.233
.319
.344
.237
.317
.362
Will Brennan
.258
.312
.358
.273
.318
.390
Angel Martinez
.233
.296
.354
.228
.287
.343
Mike Zunino
.203
.289
.405
.193
.267
.421
Gabriel Arias
.225
.291
.365
.234
.288
.380
David Fry
.244
.314
.401
.232
.294
.396
Daniel Schneemann
.214
.281
.302
.235
.303
.347
Austin Hedges
.198
.267
.296
.196
.250
.278
George Valera
.219
.311
.349
.236
.328
.386
Alfonso Rivas
.223
.315
.319
.243
.333
.368
Kole Calhoun
.215
.288
.376
.220
.290
.363
José Tena
.226
.274
.333
.228
.282
.344
Johnathan Rodriguez
.235
.297
.405
.227
.281
.377
Nate Furman
.229
.328
.276
.245
.339
.279
Chase DeLauter
.242
.292
.348
.268
.319
.387
Micah Pries
.222
.294
.354
.231
.299
.383
Milan Tolentino
.194
.264
.257
.211
.284
.295
Micael Ramirez
.230
.306
.280
.217
.278
.275
Deyvison De Los Santos
.237
.274
.372
.226
.257
.363
Joe Lampe
.204
.278
.283
.222
.294
.295
Jake Fox
.211
.282
.289
.220
.289
.336
Bryan Lavastida
.235
.312
.359
.231
.298
.335
Sandy León
.191
.283
.298
.194
.276
.258
Dayan Frias
.209
.287
.301
.219
.289
.315
Cam Gallagher
.200
.254
.255
.200
.250
.294
Kahlil Watson
.198
.271
.354
.210
.280
.353
Raynel Delgado
.203
.270
.273
.224
.292
.318
Aaron Bracho
.197
.269
.308
.206
.272
.342
Michael Berglund
.169
.269
.254
.172
.272
.250
Marcos Gonzalez
.219
.286
.313
.213
.264
.338
Jhonkensy Noel
.227
.294
.409
.210
.274
.362
Gabriel Rodriguez
.206
.283
.301
.200
.275
.281
Connor Kokx
.207
.301
.289
.209
.300
.281
Zack Collins
.196
.293
.299
.201
.299
.347
Cesar Idrogo
.222
.276
.259
.223
.275
.298
Michael Amditis
.175
.266
.263
.174
.247
.261
Julian Escobedo
.196
.275
.272
.207
.269
.315
Eric Rodriguez
.191
.240
.234
.185
.229
.262
Jose Acosta
.207
.263
.304
.196
.243
.319
Petey Halpin
.206
.263
.291
.219
.275
.317
Joe Naranjo
.203
.286
.273
.208
.293
.297
Joe Donovan
.193
.256
.301
.186
.248
.280
Alexfri Planez
.215
.252
.344
.202
.232
.319
Korey Holland
.202
.265
.323
.187
.240
.289
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Triston McKenzie
155.0
8.9
2.3
1.2
6.3%
24.0%
.280
118
3.81
84
3.1
Shane Bieber
148.3
9.2
2.2
1.0
6.0%
24.5%
.297
119
3.54
84
2.9
Tanner Bibee
148.7
8.5
2.9
1.1
7.7%
22.3%
.285
110
4.02
91
2.5
Lucas Giolito
165.0
9.9
3.2
1.3
8.5%
26.0%
.292
107
4.04
94
2.5
Logan Allen
130.7
8.4
3.2
1.2
8.3%
22.0%
.291
103
4.23
97
1.9
Emmanuel Clase
72.0
9.4
2.4
0.8
6.5%
25.5%
.284
146
3.09
69
1.8
Gavin Williams
131.0
8.9
3.6
1.2
9.5%
23.2%
.280
102
4.35
98
1.8
Daniel Espino
90.3
10.4
4.5
1.2
11.3%
26.1%
.297
103
4.21
97
1.3
Joey Cantillo
104.3
9.0
4.5
1.2
11.3%
22.6%
.289
95
4.64
105
1.1
Will Dion
100.3
6.8
3.1
1.1
8.1%
17.7%
.289
94
4.40
107
0.9
Scott Barlow
66.0
11.6
3.4
1.1
9.1%
30.8%
.292
118
3.53
85
0.8
Jaime Barria
84.3
6.9
2.7
1.2
7.0%
18.2%
.286
101
4.37
99
0.8
Zach Plesac
110.0
6.3
2.9
1.3
7.4%
16.2%
.289
90
4.81
111
0.8
Xzavion Curry
97.0
7.2
2.8
1.4
7.2%
18.8%
.285
94
4.68
106
0.7
Eli Morgan
76.7
9.2
2.6
1.3
6.9%
24.5%
.290
105
4.06
95
0.7
Hunter Stanley
104.0
6.1
3.5
1.2
8.9%
15.4%
.294
90
4.85
111
0.7
Hunter Gaddis
104.0
7.5
3.4
1.3
8.6%
19.3%
.291
90
4.84
111
0.7
Jack Leftwich
71.0
6.3
2.8
1.1
7.1%
16.2%
.293
95
4.47
106
0.7
Ben Lively
91.7
7.4
3.3
1.3
8.5%
18.7%
.303
91
4.74
110
0.7
Adam Oller
100.0
7.6
3.9
1.3
9.8%
19.1%
.294
88
4.87
114
0.6
Ross Carver
83.3
7.8
3.9
1.2
9.8%
19.5%
.289
88
4.86
113
0.6
Trevor Stephan
64.7
10.0
3.6
1.1
9.4%
26.1%
.298
108
4.03
93
0.5
Cody Morris
53.7
9.9
4.5
1.2
11.3%
24.8%
.298
100
4.37
100
0.5
James Karinchak
57.7
12.2
5.2
1.1
13.2%
31.2%
.276
112
3.95
89
0.5
Sam Hentges
57.3
9.6
3.6
0.9
9.2%
24.5%
.305
116
3.74
86
0.5
Chris Vallimont
82.0
8.2
4.6
1.2
11.3%
20.2%
.304
89
4.85
113
0.5
Jaime Arias-Bautista
60.7
7.0
3.1
1.2
8.0%
17.9%
.297
91
4.51
110
0.5
Tanner Burns
74.7
7.5
4.6
1.2
11.3%
18.4%
.294
89
5.02
112
0.5
Franco Aleman
54.7
9.1
3.1
1.0
8.1%
23.4%
.295
106
3.93
94
0.5
Connor Gillispie
89.3
6.4
3.8
1.3
9.6%
16.1%
.291
87
5.19
115
0.4
Noah Syndergaard
91.0
6.4
2.2
1.4
5.7%
16.8%
.297
85
4.78
118
0.4
Nic Enright
52.7
8.9
2.6
1.0
6.8%
23.5%
.297
112
3.67
90
0.4
Andrew Misiaszek
48.7
10.2
4.4
1.1
11.3%
25.8%
.302
103
4.14
97
0.3
Davis Sharpe
62.7
7.2
2.2
1.0
5.6%
18.6%
.293
104
4.07
96
0.3
Tommy Mace
98.7
5.9
4.3
1.2
10.6%
14.6%
.294
82
5.20
122
0.3
Mason Hickman
63.3
8.8
5.0
1.3
12.2%
21.7%
.295
89
4.94
112
0.2
Nick Sandlin
55.0
9.8
4.1
1.3
10.8%
25.9%
.268
103
4.55
98
0.2
Cade Smith
57.0
10.9
4.4
1.1
11.3%
27.8%
.293
102
4.17
98
0.2
John Doxakis
83.7
6.8
4.0
1.2
9.9%
16.9%
.292
87
5.11
115
0.2
Daniel Norris
68.0
7.4
4.0
1.3
10.0%
18.7%
.289
86
5.02
117
0.2
Nick Mikolajchak
40.7
8.9
4.2
1.1
10.7%
22.5%
.295
100
4.29
100
0.1
Juan Zapata
68.7
4.8
2.8
1.3
6.9%
12.2%
.297
84
5.16
119
0.1
Tim Herrin
60.3
9.2
4.2
1.0
10.4%
23.1%
.299
97
4.20
103
0.1
Doug Nikhazy
91.3
8.7
6.9
1.2
16.2%
20.4%
.294
80
5.47
125
0.1
Jhon Romero
44.0
8.4
3.7
1.2
9.2%
21.0%
.302
93
4.60
107
0.1
Jerad Eickhoff
68.3
5.9
3.3
1.4
8.3%
14.9%
.299
80
5.35
126
0.0
Jason Bilous
66.7
8.8
6.2
1.1
14.7%
20.8%
.305
82
5.21
122
0.0
Shane McCarthy
24.7
6.9
4.7
1.5
11.6%
17.0%
.293
82
5.40
122
0.0
Phillip Diehl
38.7
8.1
4.0
1.2
10.0%
20.6%
.297
90
4.60
111
0.0
Erik Sabrowski
25.3
9.6
6.0
1.1
14.5%
23.1%
.299
84
4.79
119
-0.1
Amir Garrett
35.0
10.5
5.4
1.3
13.3%
25.9%
.287
91
4.66
110
-0.1
Adam Scott
59.0
7.8
5.9
1.2
14.2%
18.5%
.295
79
5.63
127
-0.1
Caleb Baragar
44.0
8.8
5.9
1.4
14.3%
21.2%
.295
82
5.48
122
-0.1
Tyler Brown
60.0
8.0
5.4
1.2
13.0%
19.2%
.301
82
5.17
122
-0.1
Trey Benton
46.3
8.7
5.2
1.2
12.5%
20.8%
.295
86
4.87
116
-0.2
Brett Daniels
52.7
8.0
6.0
1.2
14.2%
19.1%
.305
77
5.36
130
-0.2
Tyler Thornton
35.7
11.4
6.8
1.3
16.3%
27.1%
.286
87
5.16
114
-0.2
Jordan Jones
54.7
7.2
6.1
1.3
14.4%
17.1%
.297
80
5.69
126
-0.2
Randy Labaut
50.3
7.7
5.7
1.3
13.7%
18.5%
.293
84
5.32
119
-0.3
Matt Turner
36.3
5.7
5.4
1.2
13.0%
13.6%
.291
77
5.84
130
-0.3
Zach Hart
39.7
8.2
6.4
1.4
15.1%
19.4%
.298
77
5.68
130
-0.4
Luis Oviedo
55.0
7.4
5.7
1.3
13.5%
17.4%
.288
78
5.86
129
-0.4
Nick Gallagher
36.0
8.5
6.0
1.3
14.3%
20.2%
.297
76
5.67
131
-0.4
Caleb Simpson
22.0
7.8
7.4
1.2
16.7%
17.6%
.297
68
6.30
146
-0.5
Bradley Hanner
51.0
7.9
5.6
1.2
13.4%
18.9%
.293
79
5.69
126
-0.6
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Triston McKenzie
.232
.289
.371
.231
.279
.404
4.1
2.2
3.06
4.08
Shane Bieber
.242
.296
.407
.237
.281
.368
3.8
2.0
3.05
4.10
Tanner Bibee
.241
.306
.395
.235
.296
.386
3.5
1.5
3.35
4.41
Lucas Giolito
.225
.298
.371
.243
.306
.425
3.6
1.1
3.42
4.67
Logan Allen
.220
.280
.347
.255
.322
.426
2.7
0.9
3.57
4.70
Emmanuel Clase
.227
.275
.344
.217
.271
.329
2.5
0.8
2.28
3.88
Gavin Williams
.254
.350
.438
.214
.280
.348
2.6
0.6
3.63
4.86
Daniel Espino
.232
.339
.391
.232
.306
.397
2.0
0.3
3.47
4.94
Joey Cantillo
.254
.338
.395
.233
.328
.403
1.9
0.2
3.83
5.04
Will Dion
.217
.286
.342
.271
.330
.436
1.4
0.3
4.06
5.01
Scott Barlow
.223
.307
.366
.207
.280
.356
1.6
-0.2
2.65
5.00
Jaime Barria
.248
.304
.401
.259
.311
.431
1.4
0.2
3.58
4.85
Zach Plesac
.266
.332
.438
.262
.312
.438
1.4
0.1
4.20
5.19
Xzavion Curry
.270
.330
.470
.240
.294
.403
1.4
0.2
3.85
5.02
Eli Morgan
.244
.295
.400
.236
.299
.410
1.3
0.0
3.36
5.05
Hunter Stanley
.278
.348
.465
.258
.318
.406
1.4
0.1
4.20
5.15
Hunter Gaddis
.259
.343
.432
.251
.321
.422
1.5
0.1
4.06
5.20
Jack Leftwich
.250
.315
.424
.275
.319
.430
1.1
0.3
3.99
4.90
Ben Lively
.271
.350
.458
.261
.319
.420
1.2
0.0
4.08
5.26
Adam Oller
.254
.343
.414
.258
.331
.437
1.3
-0.1
4.24
5.42
Ross Carver
.261
.367
.431
.238
.311
.401
1.1
-0.1
4.27
5.40
Trevor Stephan
.246
.331
.386
.224
.300
.388
1.1
-0.2
3.27
4.73
Cody Morris
.255
.354
.449
.220
.306
.349
1.0
0.1
3.48
4.85
James Karinchak
.198
.315
.340
.198
.306
.349
1.2
-0.3
2.93
4.96
Sam Hentges
.206
.267
.279
.255
.331
.418
1.1
0.0
2.95
4.38
Chris Vallimont
.265
.358
.419
.250
.339
.429
1.1
-0.1
4.20
5.39
Jaime Arias-Bautista
.261
.307
.362
.263
.328
.450
0.9
0.0
4.02
5.28
Tanner Burns
.246
.346
.403
.264
.348
.440
0.9
0.0
4.24
5.21
Franco Aleman
.240
.321
.375
.237
.302
.386
0.9
-0.1
3.23
4.89
Connor Gillispie
.277
.356
.470
.254
.332
.413
1.0
-0.2
4.34
5.43
Noah Syndergaard
.279
.335
.471
.264
.311
.435
1.0
-0.1
4.35
5.50
Nic Enright
.242
.300
.385
.241
.289
.393
0.9
-0.1
3.07
4.50
Andrew Misiaszek
.196
.262
.286
.252
.349
.435
0.8
0.0
3.40
4.69
Davis Sharpe
.264
.317
.445
.244
.299
.356
0.8
-0.1
3.36
4.68
Tommy Mace
.262
.349
.414
.276
.352
.453
0.7
-0.3
4.75
5.59
Mason Hickman
.246
.341
.412
.248
.348
.414
0.7
-0.2
4.17
5.33
Nick Sandlin
.233
.343
.433
.207
.290
.353
0.7
-0.5
3.43
5.29
Cade Smith
.219
.324
.375
.225
.324
.375
0.8
-0.4
3.40
4.93
John Doxakis
.241
.323
.384
.269
.360
.447
0.7
-0.4
4.35
5.45
Daniel Norris
.233
.321
.397
.263
.342
.438
0.6
-0.4
4.42
5.68
Nick Mikolajchak
.243
.325
.446
.241
.319
.361
0.5
-0.2
3.53
4.96
Juan Zapata
.286
.341
.476
.281
.339
.451
0.5
-0.3
4.47
5.49
Tim Herrin
.211
.299
.329
.255
.337
.414
0.6
-0.4
3.65
5.10
Doug Nikhazy
.221
.328
.327
.255
.390
.442
0.8
-0.7
4.66
6.01
Jhon Romero
.266
.348
.456
.245
.321
.394
0.4
-0.4
3.79
5.42
Jerad Eickhoff
.300
.374
.515
.259
.321
.429
0.4
-0.4
4.78
5.96
Jason Bilous
.238
.369
.352
.261
.376
.449
0.6
-0.6
4.48
5.96
Shane McCarthy
.271
.364
.479
.260
.333
.440
0.2
-0.1
4.64
5.81
Phillip Diehl
.235
.328
.333
.260
.336
.460
0.3
-0.4
3.99
5.55
Erik Sabrowski
.241
.371
.414
.235
.346
.368
0.2
-0.3
4.23
5.81
Amir Garrett
.208
.309
.292
.235
.347
.459
0.3
-0.5
3.67
5.96
Adam Scott
.219
.348
.342
.270
.387
.453
0.4
-0.6
4.76
6.03
Caleb Baragar
.259
.377
.448
.246
.356
.430
0.3
-0.7
4.30
6.48
Tyler Brown
.279
.397
.452
.241
.329
.398
0.3
-0.6
4.58
5.74
Trey Benton
.233
.353
.407
.255
.343
.404
0.1
-0.6
4.30
5.59
Brett Daniels
.276
.407
.402
.248
.343
.438
0.3
-0.7
4.74
6.49
Tyler Thornton
.215
.370
.385
.217
.353
.391
0.2
-0.6
4.08
5.85
Jordan Jones
.274
.402
.442
.254
.348
.434
0.2
-0.7
4.71
6.08
Randy Labaut
.213
.310
.311
.272
.379
.471
0.1
-0.7
4.40
5.85
Matt Turner
.279
.404
.395
.265
.361
.461
0.0
-0.6
4.91
6.20
Zach Hart
.239
.378
.388
.270
.371
.472
-0.1
-0.8
4.87
6.50
Luis Oviedo
.255
.368
.449
.254
.382
.407
-0.1
-0.8
4.91
6.10
Nick Gallagher
.246
.380
.415
.253
.380
.427
-0.1
-0.8
4.69
6.49
Caleb Simpson
.286
.423
.429
.227
.386
.409
-0.3
-0.8
5.26
7.70
Bradley Hanner
.272
.398
.457
.234
.357
.383
-0.2
-1.0
4.77
6.00
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.