For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cincinnati Reds.
Batters
When I look at Cincinnati’s offense, I’m incredibly confused. By “confused” I don’t mean that the offense is lousy, just that its construction is utterly bizarre in a lot of areas. For example, even if you write Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz in permanent marker at second base and shortstop, respectively, you still have a team that’s overflowing with plausible third base candidates: Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to start. Given this hot corner glut, the Reds signed… one of the best third basemen available, in the form of Jeimer Candelario, but not, mind you, to be the starting third baseman. And while he’ll see time there, it’s extremely likely he’s going to get a ton of time at first base and designated hitter. One of the main reasons to like Candelario is that he hits like he does while playing a very competent third base. The more time he sees at 1B/DH, the more it’s the equivalent of buying a sports car to use as a step ladder to change the light bulb in your garage.
What’s more, many of the players who’ll be shifting down the defensive spectrum doesn’t really have much in the way of synergy. Candelario, Steer, and Encarnacion-Strand are all essentially right-handed hitters in profile (Candelario has the splits of a right-handed batter), so it’s not like one of those sneaky Gabe Kapler platoons.
Given how much ownership has cried poor, I don’t want to discourage the Reds from spending, but if they’re going to grow payroll, why not spend to address actual team weaknesses? Spending more money and getting bang for your buck are not mutually exclusive propositions. When I expressed confusion on Twitter about the Reds earlier this offseason, I was assured by fans of the team that the roster would make more sense after all the trades they were certainly going to make. Well, those moves haven’t come.
But who knows? The Reds do have a lot of talent on the roster, even if their players are deployed in a rather odd way. McLain is terrific, and I think De La Cruz’s late-season drop-off removed the over-exuberance that he was going to be Fernando Tatis Jr.; he’s now about properly rated for what he is. Tyler Stephenson ought to have a better season than he did in 2023, and ZiPS projects the outfield to be adequate if healthy, though the computer can hardly be described as enthusiastic. ZiPS is kind of interested in Blake Dunn as someone who could eventually push Stuart Fairchild off the roster. As we’ve seen with them before, the Reds likely missed the window to get a good return for India, but he’s still probably a roughly league-average player and isn’t going to get any more valuable as a role player.
I’ll be generous and give the team the benefit of the doubt that there’s a plan to trade off some of the surplus talent here before it’s frittered away by time and attrition. But they’re running out of time to do it before the start of spring training.
Pitchers
ZiPS likes a lot of Cincinnati’s hitters, but it’s less enthusiastic about the pitching. That’s not so much a rotation problem, though several of the starters have worse projections than last year. It’s really odd that the Reds made a playoff run and it turned out that it have very little to do with breakouts from Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, or Nick Lodolo, all three of whom were some combination of mediocre and injured in 2023. ZiPS is a believer in Andrew Abbott in the sense that he’s a deserving part of the rotation, but its expectations are tempered a bit. Green, Ashcraft, and Lodolo all have worse outlooks than they did at this time last year, though that can hardly be a surprise.
Unlike some of the other Cincy signings, I really like the Frankie Montas pickup. There’s a good chance that he doesn’t contribute anything at all in Cincinnati, but the upside, given his history, is really quite interesting. I wish the team signed players like this more often, ones who represent a real jackpot for the team if they hit, say, their 70th percentile projections and stay healthy. The computer likes Nick Martinez as a useful swingman.
ZiPS absolutely hates the bullpen, though in the end, it has the group projected for the same 2.3 WAR that Steamer does. ZiPS likes Alexis Díaz, Fernando Cruz, and Martinez when he’s used in relief, but is lukewarm everywhere else.
I think the Emilio Pagán signing was the worst bullpen addition any team has made in free agency so far this winter, but I was surprised that ZiPS likes Pagán even less. I see this as a good example of a team thinking that the season before is the same thing as a projection, and ignoring the red flags. Pagán was basically successful because he suddenly went from being a terrible home run pitcher to a great one. Home runs allowed is a terrible stat, so terrible in fact that it makes xFIP useful, when it really should not be. Pagán has a long history of allowing a lot of homers in pitcher-friendly environments and actually had the worst average exit velocity allowed in his career in 2023. He remained a fly ball pitcher, and now he goes to one of the worst environments in baseball for a pitcher who allows a lot of flies. This is like the anti-Dodgers signing. That’s not a guarantee that Pagán will be lousy — relievers are quite volatile — but I really don’t like the odds.
So what does this all add up to? If the projections are to believed, about a .500 team, just where the Reds finished last year. Given the team’s young talent, I wish this franchise was taking a more practical approach to actually improving the roster.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Matt McLain
R
24
SS
548
481
73
121
27
4
20
81
56
149
18
6
Jeimer Candelario
B
30
3B
560
497
75
129
32
2
23
84
52
129
4
1
Elly de la Cruz
B
22
SS
616
563
92
136
25
8
23
87
49
191
39
10
TJ Friedl
L
28
CF
523
457
66
119
19
7
13
65
46
88
18
5
Spencer Steer
R
26
LF
646
568
79
150
34
3
23
90
63
135
10
3
Jonathan India
R
27
2B
548
471
77
119
26
1
16
63
55
114
11
3
Tyler Stephenson
R
27
C
455
404
55
104
19
1
13
56
43
109
0
0
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
R
24
1B
559
512
73
134
26
3
28
97
36
157
4
1
Blake Dunn
R
25
CF
521
451
72
109
12
3
17
78
41
143
28
4
Will Benson
L
26
RF
468
397
69
90
19
6
15
58
63
145
18
3
Jason Vosler
L
30
3B
424
382
55
88
17
1
18
55
36
120
2
1
Noelvi Marte
R
22
3B
546
496
69
133
22
2
14
69
42
116
17
6
Jake Fraley
L
29
RF
367
320
42
80
15
1
13
55
40
79
15
4
Jose Barrero
R
26
SS
467
424
52
94
19
2
16
62
28
156
13
3
Stuart Fairchild
R
28
LF
355
311
45
73
15
3
11
46
29
98
9
3
Luke Maile
R
33
C
212
187
21
46
12
0
5
23
19
58
1
0
Matheu Nelson
R
25
C
382
342
43
69
11
1
13
48
28
130
2
1
Mark Mathias
R
29
2B
308
269
33
64
12
0
8
39
32
83
7
2
Edwin Arroyo
B
20
SS
572
526
71
122
23
8
13
68
35
151
16
5
Cade Hunter
L
23
C
434
388
49
81
8
0
13
51
35
141
3
2
Jacob Hurtubise
L
26
LF
423
354
65
88
9
4
3
47
45
77
22
6
Conner Capel
L
27
CF
462
414
49
97
17
3
10
49
42
110
12
6
P.J. Higgins
R
31
C
344
308
37
73
15
1
7
42
29
87
1
1
Curt Casali
R
35
C
167
142
16
32
6
0
4
17
19
47
0
1
Wil Myers
R
33
RF
338
304
37
75
16
1
12
43
30
101
4
2
Nick Martini
L
34
LF
424
369
53
88
14
2
12
55
44
102
0
1
Matt Reynolds
R
33
2B
424
379
46
86
21
2
10
48
39
133
5
1
Hernan Perez 페레즈
R
33
SS
286
264
32
64
11
1
8
32
19
74
8
3
Jhonny Pereda
R
28
C
274
245
24
60
12
0
4
25
27
54
0
1
Ivan Johnson
B
25
2B
364
333
42
71
15
2
10
44
23
117
8
2
Trey Mancini
R
32
1B
457
409
54
100
22
1
15
56
39
118
0
1
Allan Cerda
R
24
CF
382
331
44
63
15
2
14
50
40
149
3
4
Levi Jordan
R
28
SS
334
300
37
68
13
1
5
34
26
79
6
1
Quincy McAfee
R
26
LF
384
334
45
72
15
2
9
45
33
96
4
3
Francisco Urbaez
R
26
2B
338
307
34
73
13
1
4
34
26
69
2
1
Joey Votto
L
40
1B
365
312
37
66
14
1
14
46
45
100
0
1
Austin Wynns
R
33
C
236
212
23
48
8
0
5
24
18
57
1
1
Michael Trautwein
L
24
C
285
256
27
51
8
1
4
28
23
95
2
1
Daniel Vellojin
L
24
C
310
274
29
55
11
1
6
28
32
84
2
1
Jose Torres
R
24
SS
366
334
40
67
10
2
7
36
21
122
8
3
Steven Leyton
R
25
2B
313
297
37
66
17
3
6
36
8
73
2
1
Tyler Callihan
L
24
2B
495
455
45
102
22
4
7
48
29
133
13
3
Drew Mount
L
28
RF
187
172
24
38
5
1
4
23
9
58
2
2
Andy Yerzy
L
25
DH
335
297
32
61
12
1
12
41
31
104
2
1
Eric Yang
R
26
C
206
182
17
36
8
0
2
18
17
61
0
1
Erik González
R
32
SS
419
393
33
90
16
1
3
40
20
104
3
3
Miguel Hernandez
R
25
2B
279
262
29
62
9
1
4
26
14
67
2
1
Ruben Ibarra
R
25
1B
367
327
34
69
11
0
12
47
28
112
1
1
Rece Hinds
R
23
RF
428
397
47
84
17
3
17
61
22
166
10
5
Alexander Ovalles
L
23
LF
325
287
38
64
11
2
6
33
31
90
4
2
Ashton Creal
R
25
CF
193
169
22
31
6
1
3
18
14
79
5
2
Nicholas Northcut
R
25
3B
371
347
38
70
17
1
15
46
18
147
0
1
Brian Rey
R
26
DH
280
258
26
62
10
1
4
31
11
54
2
2
James Free
B
26
DH
424
385
37
88
17
1
11
48
33
106
0
1
Nick Quintana
R
26
3B
338
301
34
57
15
0
6
34
31
98
1
1
Alex McGarry
L
26
1B
441
412
42
91
18
3
13
53
24
144
7
3
Justice Thompson
R
23
CF
391
352
40
68
13
2
7
39
34
149
7
3
Austin Callahan
L
23
3B
483
453
46
91
25
2
7
47
24
166
2
1
Jack Rogers
L
25
LF
405
371
41
73
15
4
10
47
28
174
5
5
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Matt McLain
548
.252
.339
.449
108
.198
.324
3
3.2
.341
79
Jeimer Candelario
560
.260
.338
.471
113
.211
.307
-2
2.6
.347
80
Elly de la Cruz
616
.242
.304
.437
95
.195
.324
-2
2.2
.317
87
TJ Friedl
523
.260
.340
.418
101
.158
.298
1
2.1
.330
71
Spencer Steer
646
.264
.347
.456
112
.192
.310
-4
2.0
.347
93
Jonathan India
548
.253
.350
.414
103
.161
.302
-7
1.7
.336
72
Tyler Stephenson
455
.257
.334
.406
97
.149
.323
-3
1.6
.323
55
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
559
.262
.320
.488
112
.227
.324
-1
1.5
.344
81
Blake Dunn
521
.242
.334
.395
94
.153
.316
-5
1.4
.322
67
Will Benson
468
.227
.338
.418
101
.191
.316
0
1.2
.331
61
Jason Vosler
424
.230
.300
.421
90
.191
.287
4
1.2
.311
49
Noelvi Marte
546
.268
.330
.405
95
.137
.325
-5
1.1
.320
72
Jake Fraley
367
.250
.341
.425
103
.175
.294
1
1.0
.333
51
Jose Barrero
467
.222
.283
.389
77
.167
.310
1
0.8
.292
51
Stuart Fairchild
355
.235
.318
.408
92
.174
.307
3
0.8
.317
43
Luke Maile
212
.246
.327
.390
91
.144
.331
-1
0.7
.316
24
Matheu Nelson
382
.202
.279
.354
68
.152
.281
5
0.7
.279
35
Mark Mathias
308
.238
.325
.372
86
.134
.315
0
0.6
.308
35
Edwin Arroyo
572
.232
.285
.380
76
.148
.301
-1
0.6
.288
62
Cade Hunter
434
.209
.288
.330
65
.121
.291
5
0.6
.275
38
Jacob Hurtubise
423
.249
.359
.322
84
.073
.310
0
0.5
.313
48
Conner Capel
462
.234
.308
.362
78
.128
.296
1
0.5
.296
51
P.J. Higgins
344
.237
.306
.360
77
.123
.308
-1
0.4
.294
35
Curt Casali
167
.225
.327
.352
82
.127
.308
0
0.4
.303
17
Wil Myers
338
.247
.315
.424
95
.178
.330
0
0.4
.319
42
Nick Martini
424
.238
.333
.385
91
.146
.298
-1
0.3
.317
48
Matt Reynolds
424
.227
.300
.372
78
.145
.322
-1
0.3
.293
44
Hernan Perez
286
.242
.294
.383
79
.140
.308
-2
0.2
.293
33
Jhonny Pereda
274
.245
.318
.343
77
.098
.299
-3
0.2
.294
27
Ivan Johnson
364
.213
.275
.360
68
.147
.296
3
0.2
.278
36
Trey Mancini
457
.244
.317
.413
93
.169
.308
0
0.2
.316
54
Allan Cerda
382
.190
.296
.375
78
.184
.292
-1
0.1
.296
39
Levi Jordan
334
.227
.297
.327
67
.100
.292
-1
0.0
.279
31
Quincy McAfee
384
.216
.304
.353
75
.138
.275
4
0.0
.292
38
Francisco Urbaez
338
.238
.305
.326
69
.088
.295
1
0.0
.282
31
Joey Votto
365
.212
.321
.397
90
.186
.263
-1
0.0
.315
40
Austin Wynns
236
.226
.295
.335
68
.108
.287
-3
-0.1
.280
22
Michael Trautwein
285
.199
.277
.285
51
.086
.299
3
-0.1
.255
21
Daniel Vellojin
310
.201
.288
.314
61
.113
.266
-1
-0.1
.271
26
Jose Torres
366
.201
.253
.305
49
.105
.293
7
-0.2
.247
29
Steven Leyton
313
.222
.256
.360
62
.138
.275
2
-0.3
.266
28
Tyler Callihan
495
.224
.276
.336
62
.112
.302
1
-0.3
.269
46
Drew Mount
187
.221
.278
.331
62
.110
.309
1
-0.4
.270
17
Andy Yerzy
335
.205
.293
.374
76
.168
.271
0
-0.5
.292
33
Eric Yang
206
.198
.286
.275
51
.077
.286
-2
-0.5
.258
15
Erik González
419
.229
.269
.298
51
.069
.304
5
-0.5
.251
33
Miguel Hernandez
279
.237
.277
.324
60
.088
.304
0
-0.5
.265
24
Ruben Ibarra
367
.211
.289
.355
71
.144
.281
3
-0.5
.283
34
Rece Hinds
428
.212
.262
.398
73
.186
.313
3
-0.5
.282
45
Alexander Ovalles
325
.223
.303
.338
71
.115
.304
-1
-0.6
.286
31
Ashton Creal
193
.183
.268
.284
48
.101
.322
-2
-0.7
.251
15
Nicholas Northcut
371
.202
.248
.386
66
.184
.297
-3
-0.7
.272
34
Brian Rey
280
.240
.293
.333
67
.093
.290
0
-0.7
.278
26
James Free
424
.229
.292
.364
74
.135
.287
0
-0.8
.287
41
Nick Quintana
338
.189
.275
.299
54
.110
.259
-2
-1.0
.259
25
Alex McGarry
441
.221
.268
.374
69
.153
.306
0
-1.1
.277
44
Justice Thompson
391
.193
.271
.301
53
.108
.311
-3
-1.2
.257
31
Austin Callahan
483
.201
.244
.311
47
.110
.300
3
-1.4
.243
35
Jack Rogers
405
.197
.262
.340
59
.143
.337
-4
-1.8
.264
36
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Matt McLain
.275
.366
.504
125
4.5
.227
.316
.400
91
2.0
Jeimer Candelario
.284
.366
.539
136
4.1
.230
.313
.416
94
1.4
Elly de la Cruz
.273
.332
.501
116
3.9
.215
.278
.378
74
0.5
TJ Friedl
.286
.368
.464
120
3.3
.237
.318
.370
85
1.0
Spencer Steer
.290
.368
.517
133
3.5
.237
.321
.403
94
0.5
Jonathan India
.279
.378
.469
123
2.9
.229
.326
.362
85
0.5
Tyler Stephenson
.286
.362
.460
116
2.7
.229
.307
.352
76
0.4
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
.286
.348
.561
134
3.1
.229
.292
.430
90
0.1
Blake Dunn
.268
.361
.446
114
2.7
.214
.307
.340
74
0.2
Will Benson
.255
.368
.484
120
2.4
.198
.311
.365
79
0.0
Jason Vosler
.255
.323
.479
110
2.2
.204
.275
.372
73
0.3
Noelvi Marte
.295
.357
.462
116
2.6
.245
.306
.360
80
0.0
Jake Fraley
.276
.366
.482
121
1.8
.227
.318
.377
86
0.2
Jose Barrero
.245
.307
.441
97
2.0
.195
.254
.333
57
-0.4
Stuart Fairchild
.260
.344
.466
112
1.6
.206
.290
.352
70
-0.2
Luke Maile
.274
.354
.447
110
1.2
.217
.297
.341
70
0.1
Matheu Nelson
.233
.309
.408
88
1.6
.176
.251
.307
49
-0.2
Mark Mathias
.264
.353
.424
105
1.4
.208
.293
.323
67
-0.1
Edwin Arroyo
.257
.312
.437
96
2.0
.210
.261
.332
59
-0.7
Cade Hunter
.243
.320
.384
87
1.8
.181
.260
.281
46
-0.5
Jacob Hurtubise
.276
.385
.366
101
1.4
.222
.332
.283
68
-0.4
Conner Capel
.259
.332
.405
94
1.3
.212
.280
.320
63
-0.5
P.J. Higgins
.264
.332
.403
95
1.2
.215
.281
.319
62
-0.3
Curt Casali
.259
.356
.413
101
0.8
.193
.292
.297
60
-0.1
Wil Myers
.276
.338
.479
116
1.2
.218
.283
.368
75
-0.5
Nick Martini
.266
.357
.439
110
1.2
.211
.308
.337
73
-0.6
Matt Reynolds
.254
.326
.419
96
1.3
.201
.274
.323
60
-0.6
Hernan Perez
.271
.321
.435
98
0.9
.216
.269
.332
61
-0.4
Jhonny Pereda
.275
.349
.388
96
0.8
.218
.291
.302
62
-0.4
Ivan Johnson
.238
.301
.414
89
1.1
.185
.249
.308
48
-0.7
Trey Mancini
.271
.341
.462
114
1.3
.219
.290
.359
76
-0.8
Allan Cerda
.216
.323
.424
94
1.0
.158
.268
.311
55
-0.9
Levi Jordan
.251
.325
.375
85
0.8
.202
.273
.286
50
-0.6
Quincy McAfee
.242
.334
.402
93
0.9
.187
.278
.301
55
-0.9
Francisco Urbaez
.264
.334
.363
84
0.7
.210
.279
.283
50
-0.7
Joey Votto
.236
.352
.458
111
0.9
.186
.293
.337
70
-0.9
Austin Wynns
.255
.325
.385
88
0.5
.196
.263
.286
49
-0.7
Michael Trautwein
.229
.310
.342
72
0.6
.169
.252
.241
33
-0.7
Daniel Vellojin
.234
.322
.370
85
0.7
.174
.262
.264
45
-0.8
Jose Torres
.224
.273
.352
65
0.6
.177
.229
.264
34
-0.9
Steven Leyton
.252
.283
.416
84
0.5
.198
.231
.310
43
-1.0
Tyler Callihan
.248
.303
.377
80
0.7
.198
.255
.296
46
-1.4
Drew Mount
.246
.304
.379
81
0.0
.194
.255
.287
45
-0.9
Andy Yerzy
.238
.322
.435
100
0.5
.178
.264
.321
58
-1.2
Eric Yang
.228
.316
.318
70
0.0
.166
.256
.233
33
-0.9
Erik González
.258
.299
.337
70
0.5
.203
.246
.266
37
-1.2
Miguel Hernandez
.262
.304
.369
77
0.1
.212
.251
.294
47
-1.0
Ruben Ibarra
.243
.319
.408
93
0.5
.188
.260
.308
55
-1.2
Rece Hinds
.241
.293
.459
95
0.7
.184
.239
.348
55
-1.5
Alexander Ovalles
.252
.331
.383
89
0.1
.200
.280
.294
55
-1.2
Ashton Creal
.209
.295
.329
66
-0.2
.153
.240
.244
32
-1.1
Nicholas Northcut
.230
.275
.453
89
0.4
.177
.221
.331
45
-1.7
Brian Rey
.268
.319
.380
86
-0.1
.213
.267
.296
51
-1.3
James Free
.259
.325
.421
96
0.3
.204
.266
.318
56
-1.8
Nick Quintana
.213
.300
.346
70
-0.3
.164
.248
.256
36
-1.7
Alex McGarry
.250
.297
.431
89
0.0
.198
.243
.330
53
-2.0
Justice Thompson
.218
.299
.343
68
-0.4
.172
.249
.260
35
-2.0
Austin Callahan
.222
.269
.350
62
-0.5
.178
.217
.271
30
-2.4
Jack Rogers
.223
.289
.393
80
-0.7
.172
.236
.289
41
-2.7
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Matt McLain
.253
.349
.449
.251
.332
.449
Jeimer Candelario
.265
.343
.490
.257
.335
.463
Elly de la Cruz
.238
.302
.433
.244
.306
.440
TJ Friedl
.263
.342
.416
.259
.339
.419
Spencer Steer
.275
.363
.490
.255
.334
.430
Jonathan India
.256
.355
.406
.251
.348
.418
Tyler Stephenson
.265
.345
.411
.253
.327
.403
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
.259
.322
.491
.264
.319
.486
Blake Dunn
.247
.343
.420
.238
.328
.379
Will Benson
.209
.318
.395
.235
.348
.429
Jason Vosler
.227
.291
.406
.232
.304
.429
Noelvi Marte
.271
.340
.411
.266
.321
.401
Jake Fraley
.238
.337
.388
.254
.342
.438
Jose Barrero
.226
.287
.401
.219
.280
.381
Stuart Fairchild
.237
.327
.424
.233
.311
.395
Luke Maile
.261
.346
.420
.237
.316
.373
Matheu Nelson
.204
.285
.359
.200
.275
.350
Mark Mathias
.240
.336
.388
.236
.315
.358
Edwin Arroyo
.228
.285
.396
.234
.286
.371
Cade Hunter
.202
.279
.303
.211
.292
.341
Jacob Hurtubise
.235
.350
.296
.255
.363
.335
Conner Capel
.221
.292
.331
.242
.317
.379
P.J. Higgins
.242
.319
.367
.234
.298
.356
Curt Casali
.226
.339
.377
.225
.320
.337
Wil Myers
.250
.324
.427
.245
.310
.423
Nick Martini
.224
.323
.355
.244
.337
.397
Matt Reynolds
.228
.310
.383
.226
.293
.365
Hernan Perez
.245
.296
.396
.241
.292
.373
Jhonny Pereda
.243
.325
.351
.246
.311
.336
Ivan Johnson
.208
.272
.336
.216
.278
.375
Trey Mancini
.250
.327
.410
.242
.312
.415
Allan Cerda
.191
.302
.369
.190
.290
.379
Levi Jordan
.235
.309
.360
.220
.287
.299
Quincy McAfee
.219
.316
.358
.213
.295
.350
Francisco Urbaez
.237
.312
.338
.238
.299
.315
Joey Votto
.200
.313
.368
.217
.324
.410
Austin Wynns
.233
.305
.337
.222
.288
.333
Michael Trautwein
.192
.272
.260
.202
.279
.295
Daniel Vellojin
.191
.276
.287
.206
.294
.328
Jose Torres
.208
.261
.313
.195
.248
.300
Steven Leyton
.229
.258
.365
.213
.252
.354
Tyler Callihan
.219
.272
.315
.227
.277
.346
Drew Mount
.218
.283
.291
.222
.276
.350
Andy Yerzy
.195
.285
.352
.213
.298
.391
Eric Yang
.200
.292
.282
.196
.282
.268
Erik González
.230
.272
.289
.228
.267
.303
Miguel Hernandez
.242
.283
.342
.232
.272
.310
Ruben Ibarra
.212
.295
.364
.210
.284
.349
Rece Hinds
.215
.271
.411
.209
.255
.389
Alexander Ovalles
.224
.305
.328
.222
.302
.345
Ashton Creal
.184
.271
.289
.183
.267
.280
Nicholas Northcut
.208
.259
.409
.197
.239
.368
Brian Rey
.250
.300
.345
.227
.283
.318
James Free
.232
.299
.359
.226
.288
.366
Nick Quintana
.194
.290
.303
.185
.259
.295
Alex McGarry
.214
.258
.352
.225
.273
.386
Justice Thompson
.196
.283
.311
.191
.262
.294
Austin Callahan
.193
.236
.296
.204
.248
.318
Jack Rogers
.190
.254
.319
.200
.265
.349
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Andrew Abbott
143.0
9.8
3.4
1.4
8.8%
25.5%
.294
101
4.29
99
2.1
Hunter Greene
133.7
11.4
3.2
1.5
8.6%
30.5%
.277
103
4.19
97
2.1
Nick Martinez
100.3
9.4
3.2
1.2
8.4%
24.4%
.308
110
4.01
91
1.6
Frankie Montas
131.7
9.2
2.8
1.4
7.3%
24.2%
.293
98
4.23
102
1.5
Graham Ashcraft
131.0
7.6
3.1
1.1
7.9%
19.5%
.299
93
4.38
108
1.5
Brandon Williamson
128.3
8.1
4.0
1.4
10.0%
20.4%
.297
88
4.97
113
1.2
Alexis Díaz
67.0
10.7
4.3
1.1
11.3%
28.4%
.250
114
4.17
87
1.1
Nick Lodolo
83.7
10.8
3.1
1.4
8.1%
28.0%
.305
96
4.39
104
1.0
Connor Phillips
114.7
10.0
4.8
1.4
11.9%
25.0%
.296
89
4.87
113
1.0
Julian Aguiar
109.3
7.1
2.9
1.5
7.3%
18.0%
.293
89
5.00
113
1.0
Chase Petty
95.7
6.7
3.0
1.4
7.6%
16.9%
.296
86
5.03
116
0.7
Reiver Sanmartin
75.0
8.0
3.2
1.3
8.2%
20.4%
.305
88
4.54
113
0.5
Fernando Cruz
54.3
11.9
4.1
1.5
10.5%
30.1%
.323
108
4.41
93
0.5
Carson Spiers
94.0
7.7
3.8
1.4
9.6%
19.2%
.299
83
5.16
120
0.5
Lyon Richardson
82.3
8.7
4.6
1.5
11.3%
21.4%
.297
82
5.23
123
0.4
Christian Roa
97.3
9.2
5.8
1.6
14.0%
22.3%
.297
80
5.60
125
0.4
Connor Overton
54.7
7.4
2.8
1.5
7.2%
19.0%
.294
87
4.85
115
0.4
Tejay Antone
47.3
8.4
3.8
1.5
9.6%
21.2%
.291
87
5.05
115
0.3
Randy Wynne
85.0
4.9
2.0
1.7
5.1%
12.4%
.301
81
5.43
124
0.3
Kevin Herget
67.0
7.1
2.7
1.6
6.8%
18.2%
.306
85
5.03
118
0.3
Casey Legumina
55.3
8.3
3.7
1.5
9.4%
20.8%
.306
86
4.88
117
0.2
Emilio Pagán
56.3
9.1
3.0
1.6
8.0%
24.1%
.280
96
4.60
104
0.2
Brett Kennedy
76.7
6.5
3.8
1.5
9.3%
15.9%
.299
79
5.51
126
0.2
Ian Gibaut
62.0
9.6
3.8
1.3
9.6%
24.4%
.305
96
4.42
104
0.2
Sam Benschoter
100.0
7.7
4.3
1.6
10.5%
18.9%
.296
77
5.62
129
0.2
Alex Young
56.7
9.4
3.3
1.6
8.5%
24.0%
.305
90
4.68
111
0.2
Connor Curlis
80.0
7.3
4.1
1.7
10.0%
18.1%
.296
78
5.64
129
0.2
Justin Bruihl
52.7
6.8
3.4
1.2
8.7%
17.3%
.292
96
4.83
104
0.2
Levi Stoudt
84.3
6.4
4.4
1.5
10.5%
15.4%
.303
77
5.63
129
0.1
Sam Moll
51.7
9.2
4.2
1.4
10.7%
23.6%
.283
91
4.90
109
0.1
Lucas Sims
55.0
10.8
5.2
1.3
13.3%
27.5%
.267
91
4.87
110
0.1
Derek Law
49.7
8.7
4.2
1.4
10.2%
21.3%
.310
88
4.93
114
0.1
Evan Kravetz
59.0
8.2
4.6
1.5
11.2%
20.2%
.300
81
5.31
123
0.1
Michael Mariot
58.0
5.7
3.7
1.7
9.1%
14.1%
.302
76
5.84
132
0.0
Silvino Bracho
50.3
8.4
3.4
1.6
8.7%
21.6%
.296
86
4.96
116
0.0
Michael Byrne
51.0
7.8
3.5
1.4
8.8%
19.4%
.300
87
4.86
115
0.0
Thomas Farr
93.0
5.4
3.6
1.5
8.8%
13.4%
.295
74
5.87
135
0.0
Chasen Shreve
41.0
8.8
3.3
1.5
8.5%
22.6%
.292
88
4.69
113
0.0
Buck Farmer
60.3
10.0
4.3
1.5
11.0%
25.4%
.290
91
4.78
110
0.0
Tony Santillan
51.0
8.8
5.5
1.4
13.2%
21.4%
.298
81
5.45
123
0.0
Tommy Eveld
35.3
8.2
2.8
1.5
7.2%
21.1%
.304
87
4.76
114
0.0
Spencer Stockton
48.0
7.3
3.9
1.5
9.9%
18.3%
.299
79
5.30
126
-0.1
Alec Mills
58.0
5.6
3.1
1.7
7.7%
13.8%
.307
74
5.72
136
-0.1
Brooks Kriske
33.7
11.2
4.8
1.6
11.8%
27.5%
.296
83
4.86
120
-0.1
Jake Wong
66.7
6.3
4.3
1.6
10.4%
15.3%
.302
75
5.76
133
-0.2
Tyler Jay
34.7
8.3
3.9
1.8
9.6%
20.4%
.314
75
5.59
134
-0.2
T.J. Sikkema
62.7
7.0
4.3
1.4
10.8%
17.6%
.287
76
5.63
132
-0.2
Myles Gayman
61.0
5.8
1.9
1.5
5.0%
15.0%
.298
82
5.14
123
-0.3
Donovan Benoit
31.3
9.2
5.5
1.4
13.3%
22.4%
.294
78
5.58
129
-0.3
Eddy Demurias
42.3
7.4
4.9
1.5
11.9%
18.0%
.299
78
5.59
129
-0.3
Zack Brown
43.7
5.8
4.9
1.6
11.6%
13.5%
.303
70
6.28
143
-0.3
Hunter Strickland
39.7
7.7
4.8
1.8
11.7%
18.9%
.287
76
5.98
132
-0.3
Brooks Crawford
63.3
6.8
3.6
1.6
8.8%
17.0%
.297
80
5.37
124
-0.3
Alan Busenitz
49.3
6.9
3.8
1.6
9.5%
17.1%
.303
79
5.48
127
-0.3
Ryan Meisinger
34.7
9.1
5.5
1.8
13.0%
21.6%
.302
75
5.85
134
-0.4
Shea Spitzbarth
35.3
7.1
5.9
1.5
13.9%
17.0%
.299
73
6.00
137
-0.4
Daniel Duarte
54.3
8.4
4.8
1.7
11.7%
20.6%
.294
77
5.65
130
-0.4
Andy Fisher
41.3
7.4
5.2
1.5
12.6%
17.9%
.293
73
5.99
137
-0.5
Stevie Branche
40.0
9.7
6.5
1.6
15.2%
22.5%
.288
73
6.01
136
-0.5
Jared Solomon
49.3
6.9
6.0
1.6
14.0%
16.1%
.303
68
6.40
147
-0.5
Ryan Nutof
55.0
7.4
5.2
1.5
12.3%
17.3%
.301
76
5.60
132
-0.5
Tayron Guerrero
22.0
7.0
6.5
2.0
14.7%
15.6%
.309
61
7.26
165
-0.6
Vin Timpanelli
47.0
8.6
6.3
1.5
14.9%
20.4%
.285
71
6.17
142
-0.6
Jake Gozzo
46.0
6.3
6.5
1.6
14.7%
14.3%
.292
63
6.67
158
-1.0
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Andrew Abbott
.229
.288
.360
.244
.319
.446
3.0
1.0
3.86
5.16
Hunter Greene
.213
.301
.404
.218
.293
.391
3.1
1.0
3.67
5.02
Nick Martinez
.243
.324
.402
.252
.305
.411
2.7
0.4
3.21
5.17
Frankie Montas
.254
.322
.452
.233
.285
.385
2.4
0.5
3.76
5.01
Graham Ashcraft
.234
.310
.326
.275
.338
.489
2.3
0.6
4.22
5.49
Brandon Williamson
.252
.324
.374
.259
.344
.470
2.1
0.2
4.39
5.86
Alexis Díaz
.196
.321
.357
.189
.285
.318
1.9
0.0
3.17
5.13
Nick Lodolo
.222
.300
.321
.244
.332
.455
1.6
0.3
4.03
5.50
Connor Phillips
.236
.355
.419
.242
.326
.421
1.8
-0.1
4.47
6.00
Julian Aguiar
.250
.333
.452
.275
.325
.453
1.6
0.3
4.52
5.65
Chase Petty
.266
.337
.434
.271
.332
.467
1.3
0.1
4.58
5.91
Reiver Sanmartin
.240
.308
.385
.272
.333
.465
1.0
-0.1
4.50
5.99
Fernando Cruz
.240
.333
.410
.243
.336
.441
1.1
-0.2
3.17
5.65
Carson Spiers
.279
.367
.474
.246
.320
.421
1.1
-0.1
4.77
5.99
Lyon Richardson
.247
.349
.432
.261
.344
.466
1.0
-0.2
4.84
6.21
Christian Roa
.250
.372
.453
.250
.355
.442
1.0
-0.5
5.00
6.46
Connor Overton
.275
.342
.480
.252
.304
.426
0.8
0.0
4.39
5.88
Tejay Antone
.256
.343
.467
.250
.324
.427
0.7
-0.1
4.39
6.04
Randy Wynne
.295
.351
.545
.292
.320
.467
0.7
-0.2
5.04
6.13
Kevin Herget
.265
.320
.470
.286
.339
.494
0.8
-0.2
4.43
6.14
Casey Legumina
.269
.342
.510
.259
.331
.397
0.6
-0.2
4.54
5.95
Emilio Pagán
.242
.314
.473
.238
.292
.405
0.8
-0.4
3.78
5.76
Brett Kennedy
.273
.350
.475
.276
.352
.471
0.7
-0.3
5.06
6.26
Ian Gibaut
.243
.328
.391
.252
.324
.441
0.8
-0.5
3.84
5.80
Sam Benschoter
.273
.374
.477
.257
.340
.455
0.8
-0.5
5.22
6.47
Alex Young
.243
.313
.405
.262
.327
.477
0.8
-0.4
3.93
6.00
Connor Curlis
.275
.364
.461
.266
.344
.486
0.7
-0.4
5.17
6.46
Justin Bruihl
.231
.299
.333
.277
.354
.477
0.5
-0.2
4.24
5.73
Levi Stoudt
.265
.366
.456
.289
.358
.485
0.5
-0.4
5.31
6.44
Sam Moll
.211
.294
.355
.252
.354
.455
0.6
-0.5
4.05
6.01
Lucas Sims
.204
.362
.376
.214
.310
.384
0.9
-0.7
3.94
6.16
Derek Law
.256
.350
.467
.269
.339
.435
0.4
-0.4
4.29
6.07
Evan Kravetz
.239
.337
.408
.270
.355
.472
0.6
-0.5
4.68
6.41
Michael Mariot
.304
.383
.545
.272
.333
.448
0.4
-0.4
5.27
6.77
Silvino Bracho
.261
.340
.443
.255
.314
.464
0.4
-0.4
4.34
6.13
Michael Byrne
.267
.343
.511
.259
.323
.393
0.4
-0.4
4.47
5.82
Thomas Farr
.294
.376
.503
.270
.348
.455
0.5
-0.5
5.45
6.54
Chasen Shreve
.254
.323
.441
.248
.313
.446
0.4
-0.4
4.12
6.38
Buck Farmer
.248
.355
.429
.228
.303
.417
0.6
-0.7
3.98
6.32
Tony Santillan
.272
.402
.446
.234
.331
.421
0.4
-0.6
4.74
6.45
Tommy Eveld
.279
.347
.500
.250
.304
.431
0.3
-0.3
4.20
6.10
Spencer Stockton
.261
.355
.467
.273
.336
.455
0.3
-0.5
4.88
6.55
Alec Mills
.322
.392
.591
.266
.319
.435
0.3
-0.4
5.43
6.73
Brooks Kriske
.246
.352
.475
.221
.316
.397
0.2
-0.5
4.45
6.58
Jake Wong
.275
.356
.435
.286
.365
.536
0.2
-0.7
5.37
6.82
Tyler Jay
.286
.375
.476
.273
.348
.505
0.1
-0.6
5.17
7.18
T.J. Sikkema
.227
.344
.373
.273
.364
.471
0.1
-0.7
5.29
6.71
Myles Gayman
.288
.341
.492
.271
.326
.442
0.1
-0.7
4.82
6.17
Donovan Benoit
.250
.391
.446
.242
.346
.424
0.0
-0.6
5.07
6.68
Eddy Demurias
.260
.367
.455
.272
.358
.457
0.0
-0.7
5.14
6.60
Zack Brown
.291
.396
.512
.283
.368
.478
0.0
-0.8
5.77
7.44
Hunter Strickland
.288
.390
.530
.242
.333
.440
0.0
-0.7
4.94
7.06
Brooks Crawford
.271
.351
.449
.272
.338
.478
0.0
-0.8
4.95
6.33
Alan Busenitz
.268
.345
.464
.284
.351
.490
0.0
-0.8
4.98
6.58
Ryan Meisinger
.262
.384
.508
.260
.348
.455
-0.1
-0.8
5.18
7.27
Shea Spitzbarth
.261
.370
.478
.278
.384
.458
-0.1
-0.7
5.24
7.08
Daniel Duarte
.255
.360
.462
.259
.352
.454
0.0
-0.9
5.07
6.93
Andy Fisher
.233
.352
.433
.279
.387
.471
-0.2
-0.9
5.42
7.00
Stevie Branche
.211
.356
.408
.265
.398
.470
-0.1
-0.9
5.25
7.15
Jared Solomon
.278
.393
.495
.275
.385
.471
-0.1
-0.8
5.81
7.42
Ryan Nutof
.271
.378
.495
.265
.349
.416
-0.1
-1.0
5.17
6.84
Tayron Guerrero
.317
.451
.634
.265
.373
.449
-0.3
-0.8
6.39
8.82
Vin Timpanelli
.262
.410
.488
.232
.358
.394
-0.3
-1.1
5.62
7.42
Jake Gozzo
.294
.425
.529
.253
.370
.424
-0.6
-1.4
6.29
8.05
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.