For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Baltimore Orioles.
Batters
If you’ve looked at the depth chart or glanced down at the projections — if you haven’t, this is a weird article to be reading — you ought to be impressed with just how much offensive talent the O’s have. Of course, some spots are brighter (catcher, third base) than others (first base), but there’s really no gaping hole anywhere in this lineup. This reflects the success the team has had developing offensive prospects in recent years. While practically none of the players picked up in the 2018 selloff have worked out all that well, the Elias-era front office has a great record with minor league hitters. The O’s had our top prospect in 2022 (Adley Rutschman) and 2023 (Gunnar Henderson, though ZiPS had him second to Corbin Carroll), and Jackson Holliday, currently no. 1 on The Board, looks to be the heavy favorite to be the top prospect in 2024. Heck, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that someone like Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo ends up the top prospect in 2025! The O’s eke out a few more wins than the depth chart here simply because of their depth; players like Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Colton Cowser, and Connor Norby all project to be positive contributors without an obvious place to lock up playing time right now. It’s only a slight exaggeration to say that I’d rather have a lineup of all the Orioles who don’t make their team’s 25-man roster out of spring training than all the Washington Nationals who do!
The Ryans O’Hearn and Mountcastle project as the weakest part of the lineup, but offense is in short supply in free agency, and I don’t expect Baltimore to make any changes here. It was always extremely unlikely that the Orioles would return to being one of the league’s payroll heavy hitters, but comments from John Angelos suggest that they’re not even going to be a middle class team, with spending more in line with Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh. If the least valuable parts of your offense project for a wRC+ around 110, you have bigger needs elsewhere. Before anyone calls shenanigans on some of the top comps, Mike Scioscia broke into the majors as a really good hitter before his radiation poisoning and Grady Hatton was a really good hitter when he was young, too. But when your top prospect gets two Hall of Famers in his top three comps, plus a third player who ought to be a Hall of Famer, you shouldn’t be too greedy.
This is one of the best offensive teams in baseball. While that’s never a guarantee of success, it’s a great place to start!
Pitchers
While the O’s have developed a lot of hitters, they haven’t had the same luck with pitchers outside of Grayson Rodriguez. Very few of the large stable of no. 4-ish starter prospects they had a few years ago really developed further, with Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer being the primary success stories. Suspicions surrounding the pitching are what held Baltimore back in the ZiPS projections last year, and while the computer has come around on a number of pitchers, Bradish most notably, it’s still a rotation that’s begging for one high-end starter in free agency. I’d love to see the O’s go after Shōta Imanaga in any case; he’s gotten a lot less press than Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he should come cheaper and there’s a lot to like about him. Plus, he’s a fly ball lefty whose weakness is being occasionally gopher ball-prone, and Camden Yards these days is very friendly for that type of pitcher.
Some of the Bradish gain is counteracted by ZiPS’ crush on Kremer being a bit more chaste than last year, but the rotation is at least acceptable so long as they don’t have poor luck with injuries. The team had been pretty lucky until late in the season when Félix Bautista went on the IL, where he’ll stay in 2024 thanks to Tommy John surgery. The bullpen ranked second in team WAR in 2023, but nearly 40% of that total was Bautista. If the O’s stand pat on the overall accomplishments of their 2023 ‘pen, they might regret it.
So how do the O’s look right now? You can add up the depth chart numbers (despite my warnings) and get them right around 90, and the current ZiPS sim has them at around 92 wins, the best record in the division. But that number will be revised as the winter progresses, and if teams like the Jays make any big additions and the O’s don’t, this standing could erode somewhat, despite the depth. It’s tempting to consider Baltimore’s 101 win-total in 2023 to be the team’s “starting point,” but that’s a path to disappointment, as a team exceeding its Pythagorean record and playing well in extra-innings/one-run games isn’t very predictive. Nor is it explained by bullpen quality; the r-squared between ‘pen quality, best reliever quality, and best three-reliever quality and Pythag/extra-innings/one-run game record is under 0.05 historically. And even then, the O’s don’t project to have as good a bullpen next go-around, thanks to the loss of Bautista. And no, projection misses aren’t predictive of future projection misses, even for very young or very old teams (since the projection systems already factor in age).
This is a very good team. The question is whether ownership is willing to invest enough for the Orioles to really find their ceiling.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Adley Rutschman
B
26
C
578
497
77
132
34
1
18
69
72
88
2
1
Gunnar Henderson
L
23
3B
640
561
103
146
27
7
26
93
68
158
12
4
Cedric Mullins
L
29
CF
571
515
70
133
27
4
17
68
45
113
23
6
Jackson Holliday
L
20
SS
610
538
86
137
23
6
11
70
69
141
12
6
Jordan Westburg
R
25
2B
546
493
74
123
27
3
17
71
42
138
8
2
Anthony Santander
B
29
RF
607
549
78
141
33
1
28
88
47
130
3
1
Coby Mayo
R
22
3B
597
528
69
122
29
2
19
81
56
164
3
1
Austin Hays
R
28
LF
543
499
74
132
30
2
18
68
36
127
4
2
Joey Ortiz
R
25
SS
469
434
59
107
22
3
8
54
28
94
6
2
Ramón Urías
R
30
3B
404
364
46
92
19
1
10
47
31
100
2
1
Colton Cowser
L
24
CF
517
443
74
104
20
1
13
67
59
152
7
3
Jud Fabian
R
23
CF
516
453
55
91
18
2
16
57
53
184
14
5
Connor Norby
R
24
2B
586
534
78
132
24
3
17
75
41
142
7
4
Jorge Mateo
R
29
SS
394
365
53
85
18
4
9
42
20
100
27
6
Ryan Mountcastle
R
27
1B
553
503
66
130
23
1
23
79
40
132
3
1
Heston Kjerstad
L
25
RF
534
487
69
123
22
4
14
71
31
119
3
2
Adam Frazier
L
32
2B
505
459
59
117
21
3
7
50
35
68
9
5
Ryan O’Hearn
L
30
1B
387
356
48
91
15
1
18
60
25
95
3
1
Daz Cameron
R
27
CF
441
398
54
93
19
1
11
56
31
116
14
4
Kyle Stowers
L
26
RF
444
395
50
92
17
1
18
62
40
136
3
2
Lewin Díaz
L
27
1B
480
436
58
103
20
1
18
65
35
110
1
1
Josh Lester
L
29
3B
492
458
59
106
21
2
20
70
28
140
2
1
Samuel Basallo
L
19
C
467
428
57
96
18
3
15
61
34
108
5
3
Aaron Hicks
B
34
CF
321
277
41
66
9
1
8
31
42
74
5
1
Maverick Handley
R
26
C
291
255
30
53
9
1
5
30
26
85
5
1
Hudson Haskin
R
25
CF
346
304
38
70
13
2
6
46
21
97
8
3
James McCann
R
34
C
286
263
29
62
11
0
7
30
16
76
3
1
Ryan McKenna
R
27
CF
278
246
38
53
10
1
7
30
24
87
6
2
Greg Cullen
L
27
3B
252
216
20
48
8
1
3
24
30
61
2
1
Max Wagner
R
22
3B
477
429
61
91
17
3
9
49
37
138
13
4
Sam Hilliard
L
30
CF
364
327
47
67
12
2
14
40
34
125
9
1
Terrin Vavra
L
27
LF
232
205
30
49
9
1
3
25
21
50
3
1
Ramón Rodríguez
R
25
C
218
199
18
49
8
0
2
19
14
31
1
1
Meibrys Viloria
L
27
C
294
256
29
54
11
0
5
30
33
86
1
1
Anthony Bemboom
L
34
C
221
198
22
43
6
1
4
19
19
53
1
1
Ben DeLuzio
R
29
LF
315
286
38
63
10
4
4
29
20
95
10
4
Silas Ardoin
R
23
C
378
334
33
64
11
0
5
32
40
135
3
3
José Godoy
L
29
C
259
239
28
57
8
0
5
28
16
57
1
1
Cadyn Grenier
R
27
SS
414
360
43
72
15
2
4
36
42
128
7
3
Mark Kolozsvary
R
28
C
188
168
20
30
7
0
4
20
12
69
1
1
Shayne Fontana
L
27
LF
373
330
41
75
12
2
6
41
31
88
9
3
Elio Prado
R
22
CF
431
389
46
86
12
3
7
45
28
98
5
5
Collin Burns
L
24
SS
245
225
28
48
7
1
2
21
14
56
7
1
Billy Cook
R
25
RF
465
429
46
91
15
3
13
55
25
140
15
2
Connor Pavolony
R
24
C
149
130
14
23
4
1
2
11
15
55
1
1
Dylan Beavers
L
22
RF
520
468
56
108
26
4
7
53
45
129
13
6
Joseph Rosa
B
27
SS
333
298
35
63
12
2
3
30
27
101
7
2
Gilbert Lara
R
26
SS
299
286
22
63
11
1
4
26
9
88
1
1
Randy Florentino
L
23
C
211
192
23
42
6
0
3
17
14
48
1
1
Tim Susnara
L
28
C
178
161
13
29
5
0
3
17
13
65
0
1
John Rhodes
R
23
LF
441
398
49
84
17
3
8
46
35
122
6
1
Frederick Bencosme
L
21
SS
463
424
48
103
15
3
2
36
33
75
12
4
Jacob Teter
L
25
1B
332
303
26
65
15
0
5
30
25
98
1
1
Donta’ Williams
L
25
CF
388
339
43
66
14
1
4
34
39
119
12
6
Zach Watson
R
27
CF
335
313
34
63
11
2
7
34
13
112
9
2
TT Bowens
R
26
1B
343
312
35
60
11
1
7
35
26
123
1
1
Anthony Servideo
L
25
SS
350
315
29
50
10
0
2
22
30
152
4
3
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Adley Rutschman
578
.266
.362
.447
125
.181
.292
5
4.8
.350
81
Gunnar Henderson
640
.260
.344
.472
126
.212
.318
5
4.5
.350
95
Cedric Mullins
571
.258
.322
.425
107
.167
.301
5
2.9
.322
78
Jackson Holliday
610
.255
.341
.381
103
.126
.326
0
2.7
.319
75
Jordan Westburg
546
.249
.317
.420
105
.170
.314
4
2.6
.320
68
Anthony Santander
607
.257
.321
.474
119
.217
.289
-1
2.3
.339
85
Coby Mayo
597
.231
.315
.402
99
.170
.299
2
2.0
.313
68
Austin Hays
543
.265
.319
.441
110
.176
.322
4
1.9
.326
72
Joey Ortiz
469
.247
.296
.366
85
.120
.298
6
1.6
.290
49
Ramón Urías
404
.253
.323
.393
100
.140
.323
3
1.6
.314
47
Colton Cowser
517
.235
.335
.372
99
.138
.327
-2
1.5
.314
58
Jud Fabian
516
.201
.287
.355
79
.155
.296
9
1.4
.283
51
Connor Norby
586
.247
.305
.399
96
.152
.307
-2
1.3
.305
68
Jorge Mateo
394
.233
.277
.378
81
.145
.297
4
1.3
.283
46
Ryan Mountcastle
553
.258
.313
.445
110
.187
.307
0
1.2
.324
71
Heston Kjerstad
534
.253
.313
.400
98
.148
.308
5
1.2
.310
62
Adam Frazier
505
.255
.315
.359
89
.105
.286
1
1.1
.297
56
Ryan O’Hearn
387
.256
.307
.455
110
.199
.300
1
0.9
.324
51
Daz Cameron
441
.234
.298
.369
86
.136
.303
2
0.9
.292
48
Kyle Stowers
444
.233
.311
.418
102
.185
.307
1
0.8
.315
53
Lewin Díaz
480
.236
.298
.411
96
.174
.276
6
0.8
.305
54
Josh Lester
492
.231
.278
.417
92
.186
.289
0
0.8
.296
54
Samuel Basallo
467
.224
.285
.386
86
.161
.266
-4
0.7
.290
49
Aaron Hicks
321
.238
.340
.365
98
.126
.297
-5
0.6
.314
36
Maverick Handley
291
.208
.300
.310
72
.102
.291
2
0.6
.277
25
Hudson Haskin
346
.230
.314
.345
85
.115
.318
0
0.6
.295
36
James McCann
286
.236
.288
.357
80
.122
.306
0
0.5
.283
28
Ryan McKenna
278
.215
.291
.350
79
.134
.303
2
0.5
.283
27
Greg Cullen
252
.222
.327
.310
81
.088
.296
2
0.4
.290
23
Max Wagner
477
.212
.285
.329
72
.117
.291
4
0.4
.273
44
Sam Hilliard
364
.205
.283
.382
84
.177
.282
-2
0.4
.289
38
Terrin Vavra
232
.239
.320
.337
85
.098
.303
2
0.3
.295
23
Ramón Rodríguez
218
.246
.296
.317
72
.070
.283
0
0.2
.273
19
Meibrys Viloria
294
.211
.310
.313
76
.102
.297
-3
0.2
.281
25
Anthony Bemboom
221
.217
.290
.318
71
.101
.277
0
0.2
.271
19
Ben DeLuzio
315
.220
.284
.325
71
.105
.316
7
0.1
.271
30
Silas Ardoin
378
.192
.283
.269
57
.078
.304
4
0.1
.254
27
José Godoy
259
.238
.290
.335
75
.096
.294
-2
0.0
.276
24
Cadyn Grenier
414
.200
.294
.286
64
.086
.298
0
0.0
.266
33
Mark Kolozsvary
188
.179
.262
.292
55
.113
.274
2
0.0
.251
13
Shayne Fontana
373
.227
.307
.330
79
.103
.292
2
0.0
.286
37
Elio Prado
431
.221
.291
.321
72
.100
.278
1
0.0
.274
39
Collin Burns
245
.213
.270
.280
55
.067
.275
1
-0.2
.248
19
Billy Cook
465
.212
.265
.352
71
.140
.283
5
-0.2
.269
44
Connor Pavolony
149
.177
.275
.269
54
.092
.288
-1
-0.3
.250
10
Dylan Beavers
520
.231
.300
.348
82
.118
.304
0
-0.4
.285
54
Joseph Rosa
333
.211
.288
.295
65
.084
.309
-4
-0.4
.264
28
Gilbert Lara
299
.220
.251
.308
56
.087
.304
1
-0.4
.245
23
Randy Florentino
211
.219
.271
.297
60
.078
.277
-4
-0.6
.253
16
Tim Susnara
178
.180
.253
.267
46
.087
.280
-2
-0.6
.236
11
John Rhodes
441
.211
.283
.329
72
.118
.284
0
-0.8
.271
39
Frederick Bencosme
463
.243
.300
.307
71
.064
.291
-11
-0.8
.272
43
Jacob Teter
332
.215
.274
.314
65
.099
.300
2
-0.9
.261
27
Donta’ Williams
388
.195
.289
.277
61
.083
.287
-4
-1.0
.259
32
Zach Watson
335
.201
.240
.316
55
.115
.289
-4
-1.2
.243
26
TT Bowens
343
.192
.262
.301
58
.109
.291
-1
-1.5
.252
25
Anthony Servideo
350
.159
.238
.210
27
.051
.298
-6
-2.3
.208
18
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Adley Rutschman
.291
.386
.500
146
6.2
.241
.336
.403
109
3.5
Gunnar Henderson
.284
.374
.533
148
6.2
.234
.319
.419
106
3.0
Cedric Mullins
.283
.347
.475
126
4.3
.231
.297
.371
87
1.5
Jackson Holliday
.282
.373
.427
122
4.1
.229
.313
.343
85
1.2
Jordan Westburg
.275
.344
.469
124
3.8
.226
.292
.368
84
1.1
Anthony Santander
.282
.347
.539
143
4.0
.231
.296
.417
98
0.7
Coby Mayo
.258
.340
.453
119
3.5
.204
.286
.346
77
0.5
Austin Hays
.293
.343
.489
128
3.1
.236
.291
.389
89
0.5
Joey Ortiz
.271
.324
.410
103
2.7
.224
.274
.326
70
0.7
Ramón Urías
.281
.352
.450
122
2.6
.226
.296
.347
78
0.5
Colton Cowser
.264
.364
.423
121
2.9
.207
.311
.329
82
0.5
Jud Fabian
.227
.311
.401
96
2.5
.176
.261
.304
59
0.1
Connor Norby
.273
.332
.450
115
2.6
.223
.281
.353
76
-0.2
Jorge Mateo
.259
.304
.437
104
2.3
.206
.251
.334
63
0.3
Ryan Mountcastle
.283
.334
.498
127
2.4
.231
.285
.396
90
-0.1
Heston Kjerstad
.283
.342
.452
119
2.6
.225
.286
.354
79
0.0
Adam Frazier
.282
.341
.399
104
2.1
.228
.290
.322
71
0.0
Ryan O’Hearn
.280
.330
.507
129
1.9
.226
.276
.399
88
-0.1
Daz Cameron
.258
.325
.416
106
1.9
.206
.268
.319
64
-0.4
Kyle Stowers
.255
.333
.479
123
2.0
.206
.287
.363
82
-0.2
Lewin Díaz
.261
.327
.464
118
2.1
.210
.269
.359
76
-0.3
Josh Lester
.255
.298
.475
114
2.1
.209
.253
.370
76
-0.2
Samuel Basallo
.250
.313
.450
106
1.9
.197
.256
.337
67
-0.6
Aaron Hicks
.270
.370
.418
118
1.4
.209
.308
.313
77
-0.2
Maverick Handley
.235
.331
.362
92
1.3
.177
.271
.266
53
0.0
Hudson Haskin
.262
.338
.392
104
1.4
.203
.284
.297
65
-0.3
James McCann
.262
.317
.406
102
1.2
.207
.264
.314
63
-0.2
Ryan McKenna
.243
.317
.402
99
1.1
.188
.261
.303
59
-0.3
Greg Cullen
.249
.355
.349
97
1.0
.192
.299
.270
62
-0.1
Max Wagner
.237
.310
.369
90
1.6
.188
.258
.285
54
-0.6
Sam Hilliard
.234
.315
.452
109
1.5
.181
.255
.328
62
-0.6
Terrin Vavra
.263
.343
.383
104
0.8
.209
.289
.295
65
-0.3
Ramón Rodríguez
.282
.331
.363
94
0.8
.208
.259
.273
52
-0.4
Meibrys Viloria
.239
.341
.361
95
0.8
.181
.282
.268
54
-0.6
Anthony Bemboom
.253
.323
.373
93
0.7
.187
.258
.270
50
-0.4
Ben DeLuzio
.249
.313
.370
92
0.9
.197
.258
.279
53
-0.6
Silas Ardoin
.225
.312
.312
77
1.1
.165
.251
.229
38
-0.8
José Godoy
.276
.329
.389
101
0.9
.210
.265
.294
59
-0.5
Cadyn Grenier
.226
.320
.332
83
1.0
.168
.264
.248
46
-0.9
Mark Kolozsvary
.212
.296
.349
79
0.5
.149
.229
.241
34
-0.6
Shayne Fontana
.253
.337
.378
100
0.9
.197
.278
.290
60
-0.9
Elio Prado
.250
.318
.370
93
1.1
.196
.264
.282
55
-0.9
Collin Burns
.244
.300
.324
74
0.4
.184
.242
.245
39
-0.8
Billy Cook
.239
.290
.400
91
0.9
.188
.241
.307
55
-1.2
Connor Pavolony
.209
.304
.323
76
0.1
.150
.246
.226
37
-0.7
Dylan Beavers
.255
.323
.386
99
0.6
.206
.273
.308
67
-1.4
Joseph Rosa
.241
.316
.336
82
0.3
.184
.260
.255
47
-1.2
Gilbert Lara
.250
.278
.347
74
0.3
.194
.225
.268
37
-1.1
Randy Florentino
.256
.312
.353
83
0.1
.183
.242
.249
39
-1.1
Tim Susnara
.214
.292
.324
70
0.0
.151
.220
.225
24
-1.1
John Rhodes
.236
.308
.367
87
0.1
.184
.255
.284
52
-1.9
Frederick Bencosme
.274
.332
.345
90
0.4
.215
.274
.268
52
-1.9
Jacob Teter
.239
.298
.353
81
-0.2
.188
.243
.274
46
-1.6
Donta’ Williams
.223
.316
.318
79
-0.1
.170
.262
.239
44
-1.8
Zach Watson
.229
.267
.365
73
-0.4
.173
.213
.276
36
-2.0
TT Bowens
.215
.287
.347
74
-0.8
.166
.234
.259
39
-2.2
Anthony Servideo
.188
.269
.251
46
-1.5
.129
.211
.171
11
-3.0
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Adley Rutschman
.263
.367
.430
.267
.359
.456
Gunnar Henderson
.245
.333
.436
.269
.350
.493
Cedric Mullins
.243
.310
.401
.264
.327
.435
Jackson Holliday
.240
.323
.370
.260
.348
.385
Jordan Westburg
.251
.328
.433
.248
.307
.408
Anthony Santander
.259
.330
.471
.256
.317
.475
Coby Mayo
.231
.318
.394
.231
.313
.407
Austin Hays
.268
.327
.458
.263
.314
.431
Joey Ortiz
.251
.309
.374
.243
.287
.360
Ramón Urías
.248
.325
.390
.256
.321
.395
Colton Cowser
.227
.328
.347
.239
.339
.386
Jud Fabian
.203
.298
.360
.199
.281
.352
Connor Norby
.250
.314
.412
.245
.300
.390
Jorge Mateo
.241
.289
.404
.228
.269
.362
Ryan Mountcastle
.263
.323
.464
.256
.307
.435
Heston Kjerstad
.242
.304
.373
.257
.317
.413
Adam Frazier
.239
.297
.321
.260
.320
.371
Ryan O’Hearn
.234
.286
.390
.262
.314
.473
Daz Cameron
.238
.304
.390
.230
.293
.354
Kyle Stowers
.228
.305
.389
.236
.314
.435
Lewin Díaz
.229
.287
.396
.240
.303
.418
Josh Lester
.223
.269
.391
.237
.285
.434
Samuel Basallo
.213
.271
.361
.229
.290
.395
Aaron Hicks
.241
.340
.379
.237
.339
.358
Maverick Handley
.213
.309
.352
.204
.293
.279
Hudson Haskin
.233
.314
.353
.227
.314
.338
James McCann
.242
.300
.385
.233
.281
.343
Ryan McKenna
.220
.301
.367
.212
.283
.336
Greg Cullen
.221
.329
.294
.223
.326
.318
Max Wagner
.216
.293
.327
.210
.280
.330
Sam Hilliard
.202
.279
.383
.206
.285
.382
Terrin Vavra
.234
.319
.313
.241
.321
.348
Ramón Rodríguez
.250
.302
.330
.243
.292
.306
Meibrys Viloria
.202
.309
.310
.215
.310
.314
Anthony Bemboom
.206
.282
.286
.222
.293
.333
Ben DeLuzio
.230
.296
.338
.211
.273
.313
Silas Ardoin
.195
.299
.273
.189
.273
.267
José Godoy
.224
.272
.318
.247
.299
.344
Cadyn Grenier
.194
.294
.279
.244
.295
.341
Mark Kolozsvary
.184
.262
.303
.174
.262
.283
Shayne Fontana
.209
.290
.309
.236
.316
.341
Elio Prado
.229
.300
.319
.216
.285
.322
Collin Burns
.208
.269
.278
.216
.271
.281
Billy Cook
.211
.268
.354
.213
.263
.350
Connor Pavolony
.179
.292
.304
.176
.262
.243
Dylan Beavers
.217
.287
.326
.236
.305
.357
Joseph Rosa
.213
.294
.291
.211
.284
.298
Gilbert Lara
.227
.261
.333
.214
.242
.286
Randy Florentino
.203
.250
.288
.226
.281
.301
Tim Susnara
.170
.250
.255
.184
.254
.272
John Rhodes
.217
.294
.329
.207
.276
.329
Frederick Bencosme
.226
.284
.298
.250
.307
.310
Jacob Teter
.205
.260
.284
.219
.280
.326
Donta’ Williams
.183
.277
.250
.200
.295
.289
Zach Watson
.203
.243
.315
.200
.238
.318
TT Bowens
.200
.280
.317
.186
.247
.287
Anthony Servideo
.157
.235
.180
.159
.239
.221
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Kyle Bradish
155.3
8.6
3.1
1.0
8.2%
22.6%
.281
110
3.93
91
2.8
Dean Kremer
154.0
7.7
2.8
1.0
7.4%
20.3%
.290
106
4.03
94
2.6
Grayson Rodriguez
141.7
9.7
2.8
1.2
7.4%
25.8%
.289
101
3.90
99
2.0
Félix Bautista
62.0
13.5
3.2
1.0
8.9%
37.7%
.262
157
2.84
64
1.9
Tyler Wells
113.7
8.2
2.9
1.3
7.7%
22.0%
.258
98
4.42
102
1.3
Jack Flaherty
127.3
9.3
3.9
1.3
10.0%
23.8%
.290
91
4.54
110
1.2
Cade Povich
113.7
9.1
4.0
1.2
10.1%
23.3%
.292
92
4.40
108
1.1
DL Hall
76.3
11.3
4.4
1.2
11.2%
29.1%
.297
102
4.05
98
1.1
John Means
85.0
6.7
2.3
1.4
6.2%
17.8%
.269
97
4.64
103
1.1
Cole Irvin
131.7
6.6
2.0
1.4
5.2%
17.3%
.292
89
4.69
112
1.0
Garrett Stallings
111.0
7.0
2.5
1.2
6.5%
18.1%
.297
90
4.38
111
1.0
Bruce Zimmermann
106.7
7.6
2.7
1.4
6.9%
19.5%
.306
90
4.50
111
0.9
Yennier Cano
68.7
8.4
2.9
1.0
7.6%
22.1%
.290
112
4.00
90
0.8
Justin Armbruester
106.0
7.0
3.4
1.2
8.7%
17.8%
.290
88
4.73
114
0.8
Alex Pham
88.0
7.8
3.8
1.2
9.5%
19.5%
.289
91
4.60
110
0.8
Chayce McDermott
98.3
9.6
4.9
1.2
12.3%
24.0%
.287
88
4.61
114
0.7
Trey McGough
76.3
6.1
2.8
1.2
7.3%
15.7%
.293
89
4.58
112
0.7
Kyle Brnovich
64.7
8.1
2.9
1.3
7.6%
21.0%
.288
92
4.48
109
0.7
Keegan Akin
61.7
9.5
2.6
1.2
6.9%
25.0%
.305
100
3.76
100
0.7
Jean Pinto
85.0
7.5
4.0
1.3
10.1%
18.8%
.288
86
4.90
116
0.6
Ryan Watson
82.3
7.1
3.4
1.2
8.6%
18.0%
.296
87
4.69
115
0.5
Peter Van Loon
60.7
7.9
3.4
1.2
8.7%
20.1%
.294
89
4.56
112
0.5
Seth Johnson
57.3
8.8
3.8
1.4
9.5%
22.1%
.304
90
4.70
111
0.5
Antonio Velez
58.7
6.3
2.1
1.2
5.6%
16.3%
.297
89
4.45
112
0.4
Ryan Long
86.3
6.7
3.3
1.3
8.5%
17.0%
.291
85
4.80
117
0.4
Mike Baumann
72.3
8.5
4.0
1.1
10.1%
21.5%
.291
91
4.40
109
0.4
Tucker Davidson
80.3
8.4
3.7
1.2
9.5%
21.6%
.295
87
4.51
115
0.4
Trace Bright
91.3
8.9
4.9
1.3
12.0%
21.6%
.285
83
5.04
120
0.4
Brandon Young
53.7
7.2
3.4
1.3
8.5%
18.3%
.296
87
4.88
115
0.4
Noah Denoyer
56.3
8.6
4.3
1.3
10.8%
21.5%
.293
88
4.73
113
0.3
Danny Coulombe
46.0
9.6
3.3
1.4
8.6%
24.9%
.301
100
4.28
100
0.2
Keagan Gillies
35.3
9.4
3.3
1.3
8.6%
24.3%
.287
101
4.19
99
0.2
Austin Voth
60.0
8.6
3.5
1.4
8.7%
21.7%
.304
85
4.56
117
0.2
Jacob Webb
60.7
9.9
3.6
1.2
9.3%
25.9%
.293
95
4.10
105
0.2
Cionel Pérez
54.3
8.3
4.1
1.0
10.5%
21.1%
.292
95
4.34
105
0.2
Nick Vespi
47.3
8.6
3.0
1.1
7.9%
22.3%
.293
98
4.08
102
0.2
Jorge López
69.3
8.3
3.5
1.2
8.9%
21.1%
.302
88
4.57
114
0.1
Connor Gillispie
89.3
6.3
3.8
1.4
9.6%
15.9%
.288
80
5.36
125
0.1
Jake Lyons
56.0
7.1
4.0
1.3
10.0%
17.5%
.298
82
4.99
122
0.1
Ryan Hennen
32.3
7.8
2.5
1.1
6.6%
20.6%
.287
98
4.15
102
0.1
Conner Loeprich
53.0
7.0
3.2
1.2
8.1%
17.4%
.296
86
4.61
116
0.1
Bryan Baker
55.7
8.7
4.0
1.1
10.3%
22.3%
.283
94
4.40
107
0.0
Shintaro Fujinami
76.0
9.5
5.4
1.1
13.4%
23.3%
.292
82
4.70
121
0.0
Darwinzon Hernández
36.3
11.4
5.9
1.2
14.7%
28.2%
.282
83
4.99
121
-0.1
Dillon Tate
49.7
6.9
3.1
1.1
8.0%
17.8%
.277
87
4.62
115
-0.1
Jensen Elliott
42.3
4.9
2.8
1.3
6.9%
12.2%
.301
80
5.07
125
-0.1
Houston Roth
71.0
7.0
4.7
1.4
11.4%
16.9%
.295
77
5.41
130
-0.2
Nathan Webb
39.3
8.7
5.0
1.4
12.1%
20.9%
.294
81
5.14
123
-0.2
T.J. McFarland
50.3
6.8
3.2
1.1
8.2%
17.4%
.297
88
4.55
114
-0.2
Carlos Tavera
65.0
7.9
6.5
1.4
15.2%
18.4%
.289
74
5.76
135
-0.2
Nolan Hoffman
41.3
5.9
2.8
1.1
7.2%
15.0%
.293
86
4.68
117
-0.2
Mychal Givens
37.7
8.6
4.8
1.4
11.9%
21.4%
.288
82
5.25
122
-0.2
Ryan Conroy
50.7
7.5
4.6
1.2
11.3%
18.3%
.303
80
5.23
126
-0.2
Dylan Heid
39.3
9.4
5.5
1.1
13.6%
23.2%
.295
85
4.81
117
-0.2
Ignacio Feliz
54.3
8.4
5.6
1.3
13.6%
20.4%
.289
75
5.56
133
-0.3
Joey Krehbiel
44.3
7.1
4.1
1.2
10.2%
17.9%
.286
84
4.92
119
-0.3
Tyler Burch
39.3
6.4
3.7
1.4
9.1%
15.9%
.293
81
5.19
123
-0.3
Ofreidy Gómez
47.0
8.2
5.9
1.3
13.8%
19.1%
.291
74
5.79
136
-0.3
Kade Strowd
46.0
7.8
4.5
1.4
11.1%
19.2%
.291
81
5.19
124
-0.4
Cole Uvila
39.3
7.8
5.0
1.4
12.1%
18.7%
.302
78
5.26
128
-0.4
Morgan McSweeney
41.7
7.6
5.2
1.3
12.6%
18.4%
.287
79
5.32
127
-0.4
Xavier Moore
29.3
9.8
7.7
1.2
17.6%
22.5%
.289
70
5.61
142
-0.4
Kyle Dowdy
55.3
8.0
5.0
1.3
12.3%
19.4%
.294
81
5.21
123
-0.4
Nick Richmond
25.3
6.4
5.0
1.4
11.8%
15.1%
.291
72
6.02
139
-0.4
Wandisson Charles
39.3
9.4
6.4
1.4
15.1%
22.2%
.288
78
5.44
128
-0.4
Dan Hammer
38.7
9.1
10.0
1.4
21.7%
19.7%
.288
59
7.06
170
-0.9
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Kyle Bradish
.234
.309
.361
.229
.293
.384
3.9
1.7
3.16
4.29
Dean Kremer
.238
.310
.365
.251
.302
.408
3.4
1.5
3.40
4.41
Grayson Rodriguez
.229
.292
.384
.236
.298
.398
3.1
1.0
3.49
4.69
Félix Bautista
.173
.250
.306
.177
.254
.315
2.9
0.9
1.81
3.70
Tyler Wells
.212
.268
.352
.236
.304
.435
2.1
0.5
3.70
4.88
Jack Flaherty
.248
.336
.416
.229
.313
.396
2.2
0.1
3.88
5.29
Cade Povich
.236
.324
.354
.241
.322
.418
2.0
0.2
3.86
5.12
DL Hall
.205
.290
.318
.230
.329
.405
1.8
0.2
3.37
4.93
John Means
.235
.283
.388
.250
.302
.439
1.6
0.5
3.78
4.83
Cole Irvin
.265
.313
.404
.267
.311
.468
1.8
0.3
4.06
5.16
Garrett Stallings
.282
.339
.450
.246
.289
.409
1.8
0.2
3.96
5.19
Bruce Zimmermann
.263
.302
.415
.269
.328
.455
1.6
0.1
4.01
5.29
Yennier Cano
.250
.314
.395
.234
.297
.383
1.4
0.0
3.12
4.50
Justin Armbruester
.268
.344
.443
.247
.315
.399
1.4
0.1
4.23
5.24
Alex Pham
.253
.326
.418
.247
.318
.414
1.5
0.2
3.91
4.98
Chayce McDermott
.253
.348
.434
.211
.317
.356
1.5
-0.3
4.08
5.44
Trey McGough
.258
.311
.361
.271
.323
.469
1.1
0.1
4.09
5.15
Kyle Brnovich
.235
.308
.387
.258
.322
.439
1.1
0.2
3.91
5.04
Keegan Akin
.230
.275
.311
.253
.309
.446
1.2
0.2
3.41
4.87
Jean Pinto
.229
.325
.333
.270
.340
.492
1.1
0.0
4.25
5.26
Ryan Watson
.258
.343
.430
.263
.318
.423
1.0
-0.1
4.20
5.35
Peter Van Loon
.259
.339
.438
.246
.314
.389
0.9
0.0
4.04
5.24
Seth Johnson
.238
.319
.410
.273
.341
.463
0.9
0.0
3.95
5.23
Antonio Velez
.268
.303
.408
.270
.318
.448
0.8
0.0
4.06
5.26
Ryan Long
.246
.326
.398
.276
.328
.465
1.0
-0.2
4.28
5.39
Mike Baumann
.236
.331
.382
.248
.316
.408
1.0
-0.2
3.93
5.30
Tucker Davidson
.231
.324
.363
.257
.325
.441
0.9
-0.3
4.12
5.55
Trace Bright
.232
.352
.378
.245
.336
.436
1.1
-0.3
4.35
5.51
Brandon Young
.255
.327
.388
.270
.336
.478
0.7
0.0
4.19
5.24
Noah Denoyer
.245
.342
.408
.248
.324
.421
0.7
-0.3
4.10
5.40
Danny Coulombe
.235
.297
.353
.252
.323
.468
0.9
-0.4
3.19
5.33
Keagan Gillies
.250
.324
.391
.222
.288
.417
0.6
-0.1
3.38
4.97
Austin Voth
.270
.339
.459
.246
.314
.413
0.8
-0.3
4.04
5.59
Jacob Webb
.225
.316
.373
.238
.306
.408
0.8
-0.6
3.53
5.46
Cionel Pérez
.232
.316
.391
.248
.331
.383
0.7
-0.4
3.63
5.12
Nick Vespi
.250
.314
.375
.242
.303
.417
0.6
-0.3
3.40
5.07
Jorge López
.266
.349
.461
.243
.321
.368
0.8
-0.5
3.98
5.47
Connor Gillispie
.277
.356
.488
.254
.332
.413
0.7
-0.5
4.62
5.72
Jake Lyons
.277
.357
.426
.254
.328
.443
0.5
-0.3
4.53
5.59
Ryan Hennen
.237
.293
.368
.250
.309
.420
0.4
-0.2
3.45
5.06
Conner Loeprich
.250
.324
.385
.272
.328
.456
0.5
-0.3
4.20
5.45
Bryan Baker
.223
.315
.362
.244
.321
.412
0.6
-0.6
3.64
5.31
Shintaro Fujinami
.239
.363
.387
.228
.329
.376
0.8
-0.9
4.14
5.95
Darwinzon Hernández
.174
.333
.283
.233
.364
.433
0.4
-0.6
4.01
5.96
Dillon Tate
.260
.348
.429
.235
.299
.383
0.3
-0.6
4.05
5.54
Jensen Elliott
.289
.349
.500
.281
.333
.427
0.1
-0.4
4.59
5.74
Houston Roth
.266
.367
.461
.265
.343
.445
0.4
-0.8
4.71
6.07
Nathan Webb
.271
.378
.486
.229
.323
.386
0.1
-0.6
4.45
5.89
T.J. McFarland
.231
.282
.385
.281
.358
.438
0.2
-0.7
3.92
5.74
Carlos Tavera
.256
.382
.416
.248
.359
.442
0.3
-0.7
5.03
6.32
Nolan Hoffman
.284
.361
.446
.253
.303
.407
0.1
-0.5
4.31
5.33
Mychal Givens
.276
.391
.517
.227
.317
.375
0.2
-0.6
4.23
5.91
Ryan Conroy
.258
.348
.464
.269
.369
.404
0.2
-0.6
4.51
5.89
Dylan Heid
.243
.369
.400
.235
.330
.395
0.1
-0.6
4.17
5.61
Ignacio Feliz
.274
.402
.432
.224
.336
.414
0.1
-0.8
4.93
6.23
Joey Krehbiel
.250
.349
.389
.255
.325
.441
0.1
-0.7
4.20
5.70
Tyler Burch
.274
.354
.493
.262
.330
.417
-0.1
-0.6
4.57
5.78
Ofreidy Gómez
.259
.400
.481
.243
.358
.388
0.1
-0.8
4.93
6.57
Kade Strowd
.261
.363
.477
.247
.330
.398
0.0
-0.8
4.55
5.84
Cole Uvila
.254
.361
.423
.271
.351
.471
0.0
-0.8
4.56
6.25
Morgan McSweeney
.270
.379
.459
.236
.330
.404
-0.1
-0.8
4.63
6.01
Xavier Moore
.250
.418
.462
.217
.342
.350
-0.1
-0.8
5.06
6.96
Kyle Dowdy
.247
.360
.376
.258
.345
.460
0.0
-1.0
4.42
5.99
Nick Richmond
.280
.390
.480
.255
.361
.451
-0.3
-0.7
5.19
6.65
Wandisson Charles
.247
.382
.452
.231
.344
.385
-0.1
-0.9
4.55
6.25
Dan Hammer
.235
.435
.441
.247
.421
.420
-0.6
-1.6
6.10
8.59
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.