For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Atlanta Braves.
Batters
Gosh, what do you even say about this lineup? The top six starters — Ronald Acuña Jr., Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies — basically get you two-thirds of the way to a playoff spot all by themselves. ZiPS puts a 50/50 season in reach for Acuña, and his projected WAR is more than a win better than anyone else in baseball. Eight of his top 10 comps ought to be Hall of Famers (Betts is still playing), and ZiPS now has him finishing with a mean career projection in excess of 650 homers, with nearly 600 stolen bases and more than 3,000 hits. And he’s locked up for the next five years, so there’s no chance of him taking a mystery plane ride to a sushi restaurant in Toronto.
You could lop Acuña off the top and this would still look like one of the top teams in baseball. The other five guys mentioned so far are all in their primes, and only Olson has hit age 30. ZiPS isn’t completely sold on Orlando Arcia, though it does have greater confidence in him being a league-average player than it did before last season; the computer is still casting a side eye at Marcell Ozuna, whose production has been rather up-and-down over the years. The only real weak spot in the starting lineup is Jarred Kelenic’s tepid projection; even with his performance slumping after April, I expected a rosier outlook, though this isn’t out of whack with what Steamer sees for the former Mariner.
Vaughn Grissom is on the depth chart in a sub role, but I can’t help but think that he ought to be a prime trade candidate this winter. David Fletcher is a suitable backup who can fake being a starter for a while if need be, and ZiPS sees the team’s other minor league shortstop options as more than adequate candidates for being dragooned into utility duties. I can’t say exactly why Atlanta pulled the trigger, but ZiPS certainly sees the lure of Ignacio Alvarez and Luke Waddell over hanging on to Braden Shewmake and Nicky Lopez.
The farm system is pretty empty when it comes to hitters, but the Braves are only looking for emergency reinforcements.
Pitchers
Spencer Strider and Max Fried are a scary one-two out of the rotation, and ZiPS sees Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder as perfectly adequate complementary talent, even after the latter’s late-season swoon. Allan Winans looks like a reasonable no. 5 starter and Ian Anderson ought to be back sometime in 2024. ZiPS is less bullish about AJ Smith-Shawver, but that projection would still be just fine for a fifth or sixth starter. With the offense looking nearly otherworldly, it would definitely make sense to focus any trade talks or cash splashings on bringing in another pitcher or two. And not just for 2024; Fried and Morton are both free agents after this season and Morton is in his 40s now. It would be a lot of fun to see the Braves go after someone like Yoshinobu Yamamoto with all the savings they’ve gotten from the very team-friendly contracts Acuña and Albies signed.
Reynaldo López is the wild card here, and it’s still uncertain how the Braves will use him when push comes to shove. ZiPS projects him to have a 4.20 ERA if he’s used as a full-time starter compared to a 3.10 mark as a full-time reliever.
The bullpen isn’t flashy, but it’s deep and perhaps still underrated. ZiPS forecasts all of the Braves’ relievers with ERA+ numbers over 100 until you get pretty far down the depth chart (Daysbel Hernández). Even Aaron Bummer (who White Sox fans seem to hate more than any person or thing that has ever existed, at least if my social media after the trade is any indication) projects for a nice little bounce-back season and a sub .600 OPS against lefties. The relief corps will also get a reinforcement or two depending on who ends up getting starts this year.
The depth chart suggests a >100 win projection, which is exceedingly rare in ZiPS (or any projection system). That number will probably come down a bit, as I’m not quite as bullish on the Iron Man playing time as the depth charts are, and I suspect a few more closer-to-replacement names will get some plate appearances/innings in 2024. Still, this is a very dangerous team. Unfortunately for the Braves, being a very dangerous team only gives you about a 20% chance of winning the World Series, baseball being baseball.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Ronald Acuña Jr.
R
26
RF
688
585
140
178
34
2
43
116
88
114
51
10
Austin Riley
R
27
3B
655
582
96
164
32
2
34
103
55
156
2
1
Sean Murphy
R
29
C
484
418
64
106
25
1
22
72
49
111
0
1
Matt Olson
L
30
1B
661
565
95
147
31
1
37
116
86
146
1
1
Michael Harris II
L
23
CF
578
538
81
150
33
3
20
79
30
119
21
4
Ozzie Albies
B
27
2B
636
579
93
158
33
4
26
97
45
106
12
4
Vaughn Grissom
R
23
SS
560
503
73
134
27
3
10
68
42
95
11
3
Travis d’Arnaud
R
35
C
311
284
35
71
16
1
11
43
21
73
0
1
Marcell Ozuna
R
33
LF
506
454
62
115
22
0
25
78
48
117
1
1
Orlando Arcia
R
29
SS
466
425
55
107
21
0
14
58
36
89
2
1
Ignacio Alvarez
R
21
SS
491
434
53
105
19
1
6
51
45
103
8
3
David Fletcher
R
30
SS
489
459
53
126
20
2
3
50
25
43
6
2
Luke Waddell
L
25
SS
511
455
57
115
16
2
7
48
48
76
12
6
Drake Baldwin
L
23
C
458
407
48
95
22
1
11
55
43
117
0
1
Forrest Wall
L
28
CF
421
380
54
92
16
4
5
45
34
117
33
7
Alejo Lopez
B
28
2B
490
438
56
114
21
1
4
53
43
74
8
2
Mitchell Tolman
L
30
3B
377
334
42
75
16
3
6
43
30
99
3
2
Yolmer Sánchez
B
32
3B
424
365
41
78
13
2
6
38
49
116
3
2
Jarred Kelenic
L
24
LF
492
439
59
105
26
2
15
70
48
139
13
5
Dalton Guthrie
R
28
CF
376
341
40
83
17
2
5
42
24
94
6
3
Luis Liberato
L
28
CF
342
303
41
70
15
3
8
42
31
98
5
3
Eli White
R
30
CF
265
236
33
49
6
1
7
29
25
90
10
2
Joe Hudson
R
33
C
244
213
23
41
7
0
6
27
26
86
1
1
Kevin Pillar
R
35
LF
289
270
40
66
12
2
10
39
13
64
5
2
Daniel Robertson
R
30
3B
238
210
26
45
9
0
4
23
21
59
0
1
Cody Milligan
L
25
CF
430
385
56
92
17
3
2
38
38
105
13
4
Chadwick Tromp
R
29
C
274
252
29
56
12
0
8
30
21
71
0
1
Dominic Miroglio
R
29
C
250
225
23
50
11
1
5
30
20
55
0
1
Joe Dunand
R
28
1B
379
342
35
72
16
1
10
47
28
125
2
1
Luke Williams
R
27
SS
389
352
49
82
14
2
7
41
31
103
19
5
Ryan Casteel
R
33
C
248
226
23
48
9
1
10
32
19
84
0
1
Eddie Rosario
L
32
LF
465
432
51
106
20
2
17
67
28
93
5
3
Magneuris Sierra
L
28
RF
319
295
37
67
9
3
3
27
20
79
14
3
Cade Bunnell
L
27
3B
457
404
45
74
17
2
13
47
48
208
3
1
Jesse Franklin V
L
25
LF
390
356
43
74
18
2
15
53
23
136
10
3
Andrew Velazquez
R
29
SS
333
298
38
60
13
2
5
34
27
113
20
3
Keshawn Ogans
R
22
3B
444
397
38
93
18
1
7
50
29
105
5
4
Justin Dean
R
27
CF
418
368
51
73
10
3
6
40
39
156
18
5
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr.
R
23
CF
531
479
61
99
20
5
4
46
41
163
15
3
Ehire Adrianza
B
34
SS
148
131
17
32
7
1
2
14
13
31
1
1
Chad Pinder
R
32
3B
287
268
31
62
14
0
8
42
17
85
1
1
Jesús Aguilar
R
34
DH
397
358
34
86
15
0
11
51
32
98
0
1
David McCabe
B
24
3B
506
453
48
104
20
1
12
53
48
139
4
2
Sebastián Rivero
R
25
C
260
241
22
53
13
1
3
30
12
67
0
1
Charlie Culberson
R
35
1B
165
153
14
34
7
1
2
15
8
53
3
1
Tyler Tolve
L
23
C
251
231
29
49
8
1
8
29
16
85
2
1
Drew Campbell
L
26
RF
331
307
33
68
11
2
7
37
14
95
6
5
Andrew Moritz
L
27
LF
272
251
29
60
8
1
1
22
18
66
4
2
Landon Stephens
R
26
RF
429
382
41
72
15
1
17
55
37
183
1
2
Arden Pabst
R
29
C
169
157
12
26
5
0
4
16
10
69
0
1
Jacob Pearson
L
26
LF
286
260
25
50
11
2
3
23
21
88
6
3
Joshua Fuentes
R
31
1B
351
330
35
73
12
1
6
36
15
97
2
1
Brandon Parker
R
25
LF
266
236
28
45
10
1
5
27
22
100
4
2
Beau Philip
R
25
3B
358
323
33
58
10
1
6
31
29
139
4
2
Javier Valdes
R
25
C
297
258
30
59
12
1
7
37
27
73
1
1
Hendrik Clementina
R
27
C
250
234
19
47
7
0
7
28
11
92
0
1
Geraldo Quintero
B
22
2B
507
460
54
106
17
5
4
44
39
115
14
8
Cal Conley
L
24
SS
553
508
67
112
18
4
6
48
32
141
16
7
Hudson Potts
R
25
1B
317
294
26
52
14
0
9
34
19
133
0
1
Bryson Worrell
B
25
RF
278
250
24
41
8
3
4
24
23
125
7
1
Bryson Horne
L
25
1B
400
376
29
77
15
1
7
37
19
140
2
1
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Ronald Acuña Jr.
688
.304
.403
.590
164
.285
.315
2
7.3
.417
153
Austin Riley
655
.282
.351
.519
132
.237
.332
-1
4.4
.368
107
Sean Murphy
484
.254
.349
.476
121
.222
.295
7
4.0
.355
70
Matt Olson
661
.260
.360
.515
134
.255
.288
2
3.6
.370
105
Michael Harris II
578
.279
.322
.463
110
.184
.326
8
3.6
.336
86
Ozzie Albies
636
.273
.327
.478
115
.206
.295
-1
3.2
.342
95
Vaughn Grissom
560
.266
.336
.392
97
.125
.312
-4
1.8
.319
70
Travis d’Arnaud
311
.250
.312
.430
98
.180
.300
3
1.6
.321
38
Marcell Ozuna
506
.253
.326
.467
112
.214
.288
-1
1.5
.340
70
Orlando Arcia
466
.252
.311
.400
91
.148
.289
1
1.5
.310
54
Ignacio Alvarez
491
.242
.326
.332
79
.090
.305
2
1.2
.296
50
David Fletcher
489
.275
.314
.346
79
.072
.298
3
1.1
.291
52
Luke Waddell
511
.253
.325
.343
82
.090
.290
-1
1.0
.298
56
Drake Baldwin
458
.233
.317
.373
86
.140
.301
-3
1.0
.305
49
Forrest Wall
421
.242
.310
.345
77
.103
.337
3
0.9
.290
50
Alejo Lopez
490
.260
.333
.340
83
.080
.306
0
0.9
.301
52
Mitchell Tolman
377
.225
.302
.344
75
.120
.301
6
0.7
.286
36
Yolmer Sánchez
424
.214
.313
.310
70
.096
.296
6
0.6
.283
37
Jarred Kelenic
492
.239
.315
.410
95
.171
.316
0
0.6
.313
61
Dalton Guthrie
376
.243
.307
.349
78
.106
.322
2
0.5
.291
39
Luis Liberato
342
.231
.301
.380
83
.149
.315
1
0.5
.297
37
Eli White
265
.208
.291
.331
68
.123
.302
3
0.3
.278
26
Joe Hudson
244
.192
.287
.310
62
.117
.289
3
0.3
.269
20
Kevin Pillar
289
.244
.287
.415
87
.170
.286
2
0.3
.302
34
Daniel Robertson
238
.214
.303
.314
68
.100
.279
3
0.2
.279
20
Cody Milligan
430
.239
.312
.314
71
.075
.324
1
0.2
.280
42
Chadwick Tromp
274
.222
.281
.365
73
.143
.277
-1
0.2
.282
26
Dominic Miroglio
250
.222
.292
.347
72
.124
.273
-1
0.1
.282
23
Joe Dunand
379
.211
.282
.351
70
.140
.300
9
0.1
.279
35
Luke Williams
389
.233
.298
.344
74
.111
.310
-5
0.0
.283
42
Ryan Casteel
248
.212
.278
.394
79
.181
.288
-4
0.0
.290
25
Eddie Rosario
465
.245
.291
.419
89
.174
.276
-2
-0.1
.304
55
Magneuris Sierra
319
.227
.278
.308
59
.081
.300
9
-0.1
.259
29
Cade Bunnell
457
.183
.274
.332
63
.149
.333
3
-0.1
.269
38
Jesse Franklin V
390
.208
.269
.396
77
.188
.288
2
-0.1
.287
41
Andrew Velazquez
333
.201
.269
.309
56
.107
.306
0
-0.1
.257
30
Keshawn Ogans
444
.234
.303
.338
74
.103
.302
-3
-0.2
.285
43
Justin Dean
418
.198
.288
.291
58
.092
.325
2
-0.2
.263
37
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr.
531
.207
.278
.294
56
.088
.304
6
-0.3
.257
43
Ehire Adrianza
148
.244
.318
.359
83
.115
.306
-6
-0.3
.299
16
Chad Pinder
287
.231
.279
.373
75
.142
.309
-4
-0.4
.283
28
Jesús Aguilar
397
.240
.302
.374
82
.134
.301
0
-0.4
.294
41
David McCabe
506
.230
.302
.358
78
.128
.305
-10
-0.6
.291
51
Sebastián Rivero
260
.220
.266
.320
58
.100
.292
-4
-0.7
.258
21
Charlie Culberson
165
.222
.264
.320
57
.098
.327
-1
-0.7
.256
14
Tyler Tolve
251
.212
.267
.359
68
.147
.297
-9
-0.8
.272
23
Drew Campbell
331
.221
.263
.339
62
.117
.298
4
-0.8
.261
31
Andrew Moritz
272
.239
.294
.291
60
.052
.321
0
-0.8
.263
23
Landon Stephens
429
.188
.273
.366
71
.178
.302
0
-0.8
.280
39
Arden Pabst
169
.166
.219
.274
33
.108
.262
-1
-0.8
.219
10
Jacob Pearson
286
.192
.256
.285
47
.092
.278
5
-0.9
.242
21
Joshua Fuentes
351
.221
.262
.318
56
.097
.295
5
-0.9
.255
28
Brandon Parker
266
.191
.274
.305
57
.114
.305
-1
-1.0
.261
21
Beau Philip
358
.180
.254
.272
43
.093
.292
2
-1.1
.238
24
Javier Valdes
297
.229
.323
.364
86
.136
.292
-21
-1.1
.306
31
Hendrik Clementina
250
.201
.244
.321
51
.120
.296
-9
-1.3
.247
19
Geraldo Quintero
507
.230
.298
.315
67
.085
.299
-11
-1.4
.275
49
Cal Conley
553
.220
.275
.307
58
.087
.294
-8
-1.4
.258
49
Hudson Potts
317
.177
.230
.316
46
.139
.283
3
-1.5
.239
22
Bryson Worrell
278
.164
.245
.268
39
.104
.306
-2
-1.6
.232
18
Bryson Horne
400
.205
.245
.306
48
.101
.306
-1
-2.2
.242
29
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Ronald Acuña Jr.
.331
.431
.660
187
9.3
.279
.376
.536
143
5.4
Austin Riley
.306
.375
.584
152
6.1
.255
.326
.468
113
3.0
Sean Murphy
.278
.374
.540
143
5.3
.226
.324
.425
102
2.9
Matt Olson
.281
.385
.578
155
5.4
.234
.334
.469
117
2.3
Michael Harris II
.307
.350
.516
130
5.0
.247
.295
.405
88
1.8
Ozzie Albies
.297
.354
.534
135
4.8
.250
.302
.428
97
1.7
Vaughn Grissom
.293
.361
.443
116
3.2
.242
.310
.352
80
0.7
Travis d’Arnaud
.281
.337
.489
119
2.4
.221
.284
.377
78
0.8
Marcell Ozuna
.281
.353
.522
133
2.8
.227
.299
.410
93
0.3
Orlando Arcia
.281
.339
.449
111
2.6
.228
.284
.352
73
0.5
Ignacio Alvarez
.266
.353
.372
96
2.2
.212
.298
.295
61
0.0
David Fletcher
.304
.344
.387
96
2.1
.243
.286
.307
61
-0.1
Luke Waddell
.281
.353
.383
97
2.1
.227
.297
.306
65
-0.1
Drake Baldwin
.262
.343
.421
103
1.9
.208
.290
.322
67
-0.1
Forrest Wall
.271
.333
.389
96
2.0
.216
.281
.301
61
0.0
Alejo Lopez
.289
.358
.382
102
2.0
.234
.307
.307
68
0.0
Mitchell Tolman
.251
.331
.390
92
1.5
.198
.276
.300
56
-0.1
Yolmer Sánchez
.239
.342
.351
85
1.5
.190
.288
.272
54
-0.2
Jarred Kelenic
.265
.342
.462
112
1.7
.210
.290
.356
75
-0.6
Dalton Guthrie
.271
.334
.394
96
1.3
.216
.279
.308
59
-0.4
Luis Liberato
.255
.328
.427
101
1.2
.203
.269
.336
64
-0.3
Eli White
.240
.323
.379
88
1.0
.181
.258
.279
47
-0.3
Joe Hudson
.223
.318
.368
81
0.9
.165
.255
.260
42
-0.3
Kevin Pillar
.272
.314
.474
111
1.1
.212
.257
.359
68
-0.5
Daniel Robertson
.243
.335
.362
88
0.8
.184
.272
.267
48
-0.4
Cody Milligan
.263
.337
.350
85
1.0
.210
.284
.277
53
-0.7
Chadwick Tromp
.252
.308
.426
95
0.9
.196
.251
.313
53
-0.6
Dominic Miroglio
.259
.322
.407
94
0.8
.194
.258
.294
51
-0.6
Joe Dunand
.237
.311
.402
90
0.9
.185
.253
.310
53
-0.8
Luke Williams
.261
.329
.400
94
1.0
.203
.269
.304
57
-0.9
Ryan Casteel
.237
.304
.457
101
0.6
.184
.252
.327
56
-0.8
Eddie Rosario
.272
.319
.478
110
1.1
.212
.261
.361
66
-1.4
Magneuris Sierra
.252
.303
.347
75
0.6
.202
.253
.276
44
-0.7
Cade Bunnell
.212
.301
.389
85
1.0
.153
.245
.279
43
-1.3
Jesse Franklin V
.236
.294
.454
99
0.9
.181
.241
.341
56
-1.2
Andrew Velazquez
.229
.302
.365
77
0.9
.175
.243
.264
38
-0.9
Keshawn Ogans
.261
.326
.378
89
0.7
.208
.278
.298
56
-1.2
Justin Dean
.227
.318
.341
76
0.6
.167
.263
.250
40
-1.2
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr.
.232
.302
.334
72
0.9
.181
.253
.254
40
-1.3
Ehire Adrianza
.271
.348
.402
103
0.1
.215
.287
.311
64
-0.6
Chad Pinder
.260
.308
.422
94
0.3
.203
.251
.327
57
-1.0
Jesús Aguilar
.268
.328
.420
99
0.4
.212
.275
.327
62
-1.4
David McCabe
.251
.325
.401
94
0.3
.201
.272
.316
62
-1.7
Sebastián Rivero
.252
.299
.368
77
0.0
.191
.238
.276
41
-1.3
Charlie Culberson
.255
.298
.370
78
-0.3
.189
.234
.272
36
-1.2
Tyler Tolve
.239
.297
.413
88
-0.1
.185
.242
.304
47
-1.4
Drew Campbell
.248
.289
.394
81
0.1
.201
.238
.295
44
-1.5
Andrew Moritz
.272
.325
.328
76
-0.2
.211
.265
.255
43
-1.4
Landon Stephens
.219
.299
.426
91
0.3
.158
.244
.309
50
-1.9
Arden Pabst
.197
.251
.343
56
-0.3
.140
.190
.231
13
-1.3
Jacob Pearson
.222
.289
.331
67
-0.2
.167
.227
.248
30
-1.5
Joshua Fuentes
.251
.290
.368
76
-0.1
.194
.235
.278
39
-1.7
Brandon Parker
.218
.301
.349
75
-0.4
.163
.248
.257
40
-1.5
Beau Philip
.205
.280
.318
59
-0.4
.152
.229
.233
26
-1.9
Javier Valdes
.265
.357
.426
112
-0.2
.196
.296
.309
65
-1.8
Hendrik Clementina
.229
.275
.375
70
-0.7
.172
.214
.274
31
-2.0
Geraldo Quintero
.259
.325
.356
85
-0.3
.207
.274
.277
51
-2.4
Cal Conley
.243
.300
.341
72
-0.4
.196
.252
.274
42
-2.5
Hudson Potts
.203
.257
.359
64
-0.7
.148
.205
.267
28
-2.2
Bryson Worrell
.192
.276
.317
60
-0.9
.133
.215
.226
21
-2.3
Bryson Horne
.231
.269
.348
65
-1.3
.179
.217
.265
30
-3.1
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Ronald Acuña Jr.
.304
.412
.602
.304
.399
.585
Austin Riley
.288
.363
.548
.279
.346
.506
Sean Murphy
.254
.355
.458
.254
.346
.486
Matt Olson
.253
.347
.476
.263
.366
.532
Michael Harris II
.266
.311
.435
.285
.328
.476
Ozzie Albies
.295
.343
.512
.264
.321
.465
Vaughn Grissom
.265
.340
.389
.267
.332
.394
Travis d’Arnaud
.261
.330
.420
.245
.304
.434
Marcell Ozuna
.254
.328
.475
.253
.325
.464
Orlando Arcia
.255
.322
.416
.250
.306
.392
Ignacio Alvarez
.248
.341
.329
.238
.317
.333
David Fletcher
.278
.320
.352
.273
.311
.343
Luke Waddell
.243
.313
.333
.257
.330
.347
Drake Baldwin
.229
.311
.358
.235
.318
.379
Forrest Wall
.227
.295
.333
.251
.318
.351
Alejo Lopez
.257
.335
.323
.262
.331
.351
Mitchell Tolman
.219
.297
.332
.241
.316
.379
Yolmer Sánchez
.212
.314
.314
.215
.312
.308
Jarred Kelenic
.235
.307
.403
.241
.319
.414
Dalton Guthrie
.247
.316
.354
.240
.300
.344
Luis Liberato
.224
.295
.362
.235
.305
.390
Eli White
.204
.297
.347
.210
.286
.319
Joe Hudson
.200
.305
.333
.187
.273
.293
Kevin Pillar
.256
.299
.456
.239
.281
.394
Daniel Robertson
.220
.312
.341
.211
.297
.297
Cody Milligan
.226
.297
.297
.248
.322
.326
Chadwick Tromp
.230
.298
.389
.216
.267
.345
Dominic Miroglio
.227
.301
.355
.217
.283
.339
Joe Dunand
.217
.291
.376
.205
.275
.330
Luke Williams
.240
.313
.356
.228
.288
.335
Ryan Casteel
.213
.288
.404
.212
.271
.386
Eddie Rosario
.237
.279
.377
.248
.295
.434
Magneuris Sierra
.226
.270
.310
.227
.281
.308
Cade Bunnell
.177
.272
.323
.187
.274
.337
Jesse Franklin V
.198
.263
.380
.213
.272
.404
Andrew Velazquez
.210
.282
.328
.196
.260
.296
Keshawn Ogans
.242
.317
.329
.230
.295
.343
Justin Dean
.202
.298
.306
.195
.279
.277
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr.
.208
.286
.292
.206
.273
.296
Ehire Adrianza
.250
.333
.364
.241
.309
.356
Chad Pinder
.239
.289
.398
.226
.271
.355
Jesús Aguilar
.242
.314
.379
.239
.296
.372
David McCabe
.224
.299
.347
.232
.304
.363
Sebastián Rivero
.224
.274
.316
.217
.261
.322
Charlie Culberson
.231
.275
.354
.216
.255
.295
Tyler Tolve
.211
.265
.355
.213
.268
.361
Drew Campbell
.215
.261
.318
.225
.264
.350
Andrew Moritz
.230
.287
.253
.244
.298
.311
Landon Stephens
.194
.284
.378
.183
.262
.356
Arden Pabst
.176
.233
.294
.157
.208
.258
Jacob Pearson
.188
.248
.281
.195
.261
.287
Joshua Fuentes
.226
.267
.343
.218
.259
.301
Brandon Parker
.200
.286
.324
.183
.265
.290
Beau Philip
.184
.265
.289
.175
.245
.257
Javier Valdes
.230
.328
.372
.228
.319
.359
Hendrik Clementina
.202
.248
.312
.200
.241
.328
Geraldo Quintero
.225
.296
.302
.234
.300
.323
Cal Conley
.209
.262
.299
.227
.281
.311
Hudson Potts
.183
.246
.325
.173
.218
.310
Bryson Worrell
.159
.242
.256
.167
.246
.274
Bryson Horne
.197
.234
.299
.209
.251
.310
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Spencer Strider
R
25
15
6
3.28
30
28
161.7
122
59
19
49
234
Max Fried
L
30
11
5
3.27
23
23
129.3
119
47
11
35
118
Charlie Morton
R
40
12
8
4.09
27
27
149.7
134
68
19
64
166
Bryce Elder
R
25
9
6
4.22
29
29
157.7
154
74
19
59
130
Allan Winans
R
28
7
6
4.34
24
18
120.3
123
58
16
35
100
Ian Anderson
R
26
8
7
4.44
24
24
121.7
116
60
16
54
114
Reynaldo López
R
30
7
4
3.67
52
7
76.0
67
31
9
28
84
Raisel Iglesias
R
34
6
3
3.09
57
0
55.3
47
19
7
13
70
AJ Smith-Shawver
R
21
5
4
4.54
26
25
101.0
92
51
14
53
104
Luis De Avila
L
23
8
7
4.75
25
25
115.7
120
61
15
53
92
Dylan Dodd
L
26
7
7
4.67
22
20
104.0
112
54
15
33
78
Kolby Allard
L
26
5
4
4.40
23
15
86.0
84
42
13
28
83
Darius Vines
R
26
4
4
4.46
17
15
78.7
80
39
12
27
69
Huascar Ynoa
R
26
5
4
4.35
16
14
70.3
66
34
9
29
71
A.J. Minter
L
30
6
3
3.66
70
0
64.0
55
26
8
19
77
Hurston Waldrep
R
22
1
1
4.45
19
19
64.7
60
32
9
34
68
Penn Murfee
R
30
4
3
4.08
37
7
64.0
59
29
9
26
73
Nolan Kingham
R
27
5
5
4.75
25
14
83.3
96
44
12
26
52
Matt Swarmer
R
30
5
4
4.73
23
13
80.0
86
42
13
35
70
Dylan Lee
L
29
4
2
3.38
44
0
48.0
44
18
6
11
52
Drew Parrish
L
26
7
7
5.04
25
21
105.3
112
59
15
51
77
Yonny Chirinos
R
30
5
5
4.78
22
12
92.3
100
49
14
29
59
Scott Blewett
R
28
5
4
4.84
20
15
80.0
88
43
11
34
59
Zach Logue
L
28
6
7
5.05
26
21
101.7
112
57
16
37
79
Collin McHugh
R
37
3
2
4.19
40
3
58.0
59
27
8
20
55
Joe Jiménez
R
29
3
1
3.61
56
0
52.3
44
21
8
17
68
Tyler Owens
R
23
3
4
4.80
31
12
65.7
71
35
9
25
48
Pierce Johnson
R
33
4
3
4.03
56
0
51.3
47
23
8
21
70
Aaron Bummer
L
30
5
3
4.12
56
0
54.7
47
25
7
25
69
Nick Margevicius
L
28
3
3
4.84
22
11
61.3
71
33
9
19
42
Patrick Halligan
R
24
5
5
4.90
26
8
64.3
71
35
9
24
46
Daniel Martinez
R
25
4
5
5.20
22
15
81.3
90
47
13
35
61
Jose Montilla
R
26
2
3
4.70
28
6
59.3
67
31
8
17
34
Jackson Stephens
R
30
3
2
4.44
30
4
50.7
52
25
7
18
45
Beau Burrows
R
27
4
5
5.11
30
11
74.0
77
42
10
37
62
Domingo Gonzalez
R
24
4
5
4.91
31
7
69.7
71
38
10
34
62
Jake McSteen
L
28
3
2
4.82
31
5
61.7
70
33
10
19
45
Dereck Rodríguez
R
32
4
4
5.04
26
9
69.7
77
39
11
28
54
Grant Holmes
R
28
4
3
4.50
40
3
56.0
58
28
8
24
52
Justus Sheffield
L
28
5
5
5.23
23
15
75.7
86
44
11
40
60
Brooks Wilson
R
28
2
1
4.46
21
2
36.3
34
18
5
17
41
Hayden Harris
L
25
5
4
4.19
38
0
53.7
49
25
7
23
59
Jesse Chavez
R
40
2
1
4.50
39
2
42.0
43
21
7
16
44
Angel Perdomo
L
30
3
3
4.12
42
0
43.7
34
20
6
25
62
Tyler Matzek
L
33
2
1
4.20
49
0
45.0
40
21
6
24
47
Coleman Huntley III
R
31
3
2
4.60
25
2
45.0
47
23
6
17
41
Ty Tice
R
27
2
2
4.70
39
2
51.7
50
27
7
25
52
Lucas Luetge
L
37
3
2
4.43
38
0
42.7
47
21
6
14
40
Hayden Deal
L
29
2
3
5.18
26
8
57.3
64
33
8
25
39
Ben Bowden
L
29
4
3
4.59
46
0
49.0
46
25
7
26
57
Tommy Doyle
R
28
4
4
4.67
43
0
52.0
51
27
8
24
50
Seth Elledge
R
28
3
3
4.65
41
0
50.3
51
26
7
22
47
Daysbel Hernández
R
27
2
3
4.64
31
0
33.0
30
17
5
19
39
Roel Ramírez
R
29
1
1
4.72
26
1
34.3
36
18
5
15
31
Brian Moran
L
35
2
1
4.69
36
0
40.3
39
21
6
16
40
Danny Young
L
30
1
1
4.67
32
0
34.7
34
18
5
18
38
Brad Hand
L
34
4
3
4.82
52
0
46.7
45
25
7
21
44
Mike Morin
R
33
1
0
5.20
26
1
27.7
28
16
4
12
23
Peyton Williams
R
26
1
2
4.81
31
0
43.0
43
23
6
20
40
Alex Segal
L
26
1
1
5.40
18
0
20.0
20
12
3
14
19
Miguel Pena
R
25
3
3
5.23
30
0
41.3
43
24
6
21
36
Joe Harvey
R
32
1
2
5.65
27
0
28.7
29
18
5
20
27
Jorge Juan
R
25
2
3
5.77
27
1
39.0
37
25
6
32
40
Trey Riley
R
26
2
3
5.62
36
0
41.7
43
26
6
30
35
Nick Howard
R
31
1
1
6.26
22
0
23.0
26
16
4
19
17
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Spencer Strider
161.7
13.0
2.7
1.1
7.5%
35.7%
.299
132
2.96
75
3.8
Max Fried
129.3
8.2
2.4
0.8
6.5%
21.9%
.293
133
3.44
75
3.1
Charlie Morton
149.7
10.0
3.8
1.1
10.0%
25.9%
.296
106
4.23
94
2.4
Bryce Elder
157.7
7.4
3.4
1.1
8.6%
19.0%
.290
103
4.45
97
2.3
Allan Winans
120.3
7.5
2.6
1.2
6.7%
19.2%
.298
100
4.39
100
1.6
Ian Anderson
121.7
8.4
4.0
1.2
10.1%
21.4%
.292
98
4.45
102
1.5
Reynaldo López
76.0
9.9
3.3
1.1
8.7%
26.1%
.294
119
3.77
84
1.4
Raisel Iglesias
55.3
11.4
2.1
1.1
5.8%
31.1%
.301
141
3.13
71
1.2
AJ Smith-Shawver
101.0
9.3
4.7
1.2
11.7%
23.0%
.289
96
4.69
104
1.2
Luis De Avila
115.7
7.2
4.1
1.2
10.3%
17.8%
.299
92
4.91
109
1.1
Dylan Dodd
104.0
6.8
2.9
1.3
7.3%
17.2%
.300
93
4.64
107
1.0
Kolby Allard
86.0
8.7
2.9
1.4
7.6%
22.6%
.296
99
4.34
101
1.0
Darius Vines
78.7
7.9
3.1
1.4
7.9%
20.2%
.297
98
4.55
103
1.0
Huascar Ynoa
70.3
9.1
3.7
1.2
9.5%
23.4%
.297
100
4.26
100
0.9
A.J. Minter
64.0
10.8
2.7
1.1
7.2%
29.2%
.297
119
3.46
84
0.9
Hurston Waldrep
64.7
9.5
4.7
1.3
11.7%
23.4%
.295
98
4.63
102
0.8
Penn Murfee
64.0
10.3
3.7
1.3
9.4%
26.4%
.303
107
4.21
94
0.8
Nolan Kingham
83.3
5.6
2.8
1.3
7.1%
14.1%
.305
92
4.92
109
0.7
Matt Swarmer
80.0
7.9
3.9
1.5
9.8%
19.6%
.308
92
4.97
109
0.7
Dylan Lee
48.0
9.8
2.1
1.1
5.6%
26.4%
.299
129
3.40
78
0.7
Drew Parrish
105.3
6.6
4.4
1.3
10.8%
16.2%
.296
86
5.24
116
0.7
Yonny Chirinos
92.3
5.8
2.8
1.4
7.2%
14.6%
.290
91
5.02
110
0.7
Scott Blewett
80.0
6.6
3.8
1.2
9.4%
16.3%
.306
90
4.96
111
0.6
Zach Logue
101.7
7.0
3.3
1.4
8.2%
17.6%
.306
86
5.05
116
0.6
Collin McHugh
58.0
8.5
3.1
1.2
8.0%
22.0%
.307
104
4.34
96
0.6
Joe Jiménez
52.3
11.7
2.9
1.4
7.8%
31.3%
.295
120
3.85
83
0.5
Tyler Owens
65.7
6.6
3.4
1.2
8.6%
16.6%
.301
91
4.90
110
0.5
Pierce Johnson
51.3
12.3
3.7
1.4
9.4%
31.3%
.325
108
3.78
93
0.5
Aaron Bummer
54.7
11.4
4.1
1.2
10.5%
29.1%
.303
106
3.99
95
0.4
Nick Margevicius
61.3
6.2
2.8
1.3
7.0%
15.4%
.312
90
4.87
111
0.4
Patrick Halligan
64.3
6.4
3.4
1.3
8.3%
16.0%
.304
89
4.90
113
0.4
Daniel Martinez
81.3
6.8
3.9
1.4
9.5%
16.5%
.303
84
5.42
120
0.4
Jose Montilla
59.3
5.2
2.6
1.2
6.6%
13.1%
.298
93
4.82
108
0.4
Jackson Stephens
50.7
8.0
3.2
1.2
8.2%
20.5%
.304
98
4.58
102
0.4
Beau Burrows
74.0
7.5
4.5
1.2
11.1%
18.6%
.302
85
5.00
117
0.3
Domingo Gonzalez
69.7
8.0
4.4
1.3
10.8%
19.7%
.300
89
5.15
113
0.3
Jake McSteen
61.7
6.6
2.8
1.5
7.0%
16.5%
.308
90
4.88
111
0.3
Dereck Rodríguez
69.7
7.0
3.6
1.4
9.0%
17.4%
.306
86
5.09
116
0.3
Grant Holmes
56.0
8.4
3.9
1.3
9.6%
20.8%
.309
97
4.70
103
0.3
Justus Sheffield
75.7
7.1
4.8
1.3
11.4%
17.0%
.318
83
5.34
120
0.3
Brooks Wilson
36.3
10.2
4.2
1.2
10.4%
25.0%
.305
98
4.27
102
0.3
Hayden Harris
53.7
9.9
3.9
1.2
9.7%
25.0%
.298
104
4.26
96
0.3
Jesse Chavez
42.0
9.4
3.4
1.5
8.7%
24.0%
.313
97
4.54
103
0.3
Angel Perdomo
43.7
12.8
5.2
1.2
13.0%
32.3%
.295
106
4.26
95
0.2
Tyler Matzek
45.0
9.4
4.8
1.2
12.0%
23.5%
.286
104
4.63
97
0.2
Coleman Huntley III
45.0
8.2
3.4
1.2
8.6%
20.7%
.311
95
4.50
106
0.2
Ty Tice
51.7
9.1
4.4
1.2
10.7%
22.3%
.303
93
4.69
108
0.2
Lucas Luetge
42.7
8.4
3.0
1.3
7.4%
21.1%
.325
98
4.40
102
0.1
Hayden Deal
57.3
6.1
3.9
1.3
9.6%
15.0%
.304
84
5.28
119
0.1
Ben Bowden
49.0
10.5
4.8
1.3
11.8%
25.9%
.310
95
4.44
106
0.1
Tommy Doyle
52.0
8.7
4.2
1.4
10.3%
21.6%
.297
93
4.72
107
0.1
Seth Elledge
50.3
8.4
3.9
1.3
9.7%
20.8%
.306
94
4.69
107
0.1
Daysbel Hernández
33.0
10.6
5.2
1.4
12.8%
26.2%
.301
94
4.77
107
0.0
Roel Ramírez
34.3
8.1
3.9
1.3
9.6%
19.9%
.307
92
4.83
108
0.0
Brian Moran
40.3
8.9
3.6
1.3
9.1%
22.9%
.297
93
4.84
108
0.0
Danny Young
34.7
9.9
4.7
1.3
11.5%
24.4%
.312
93
4.93
107
0.0
Brad Hand
46.7
8.5
4.1
1.4
10.2%
21.5%
.290
90
4.99
111
0.0
Mike Morin
27.7
7.5
3.9
1.3
9.8%
18.9%
.293
84
4.99
120
0.0
Peyton Williams
43.0
8.4
4.2
1.3
10.4%
20.8%
.301
90
4.88
111
-0.1
Alex Segal
20.0
8.6
6.3
1.4
14.7%
20.0%
.298
81
5.71
124
-0.2
Miguel Pena
41.3
7.8
4.6
1.3
11.1%
18.9%
.303
83
5.14
120
-0.2
Joe Harvey
28.7
8.5
6.3
1.6
14.9%
20.1%
.296
77
5.94
130
-0.3
Jorge Juan
39.0
9.2
7.4
1.4
16.7%
20.8%
.295
75
5.97
133
-0.3
Trey Riley
41.7
7.6
6.5
1.3
14.9%
17.4%
.298
77
5.82
129
-0.4
Nick Howard
23.0
6.7
7.4
1.6
16.7%
14.9%
.306
70
6.78
144
-0.4
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Spencer Strider
.223
.289
.373
.186
.257
.317
5.3
2.5
2.55
4.00
Max Fried
.226
.281
.339
.243
.296
.366
3.7
2.2
2.82
3.93
Charlie Morton
.241
.343
.426
.228
.304
.360
3.5
1.1
3.35
4.95
Bryce Elder
.266
.340
.453
.236
.306
.359
3.2
1.4
3.76
4.78
Allan Winans
.279
.338
.451
.242
.302
.404
2.4
1.0
3.79
4.80
Ian Anderson
.219
.302
.351
.270
.341
.459
2.2
0.5
3.99
5.21
Reynaldo López
.230
.316
.396
.232
.287
.358
2.0
0.5
3.05
4.71
Raisel Iglesias
.245
.288
.429
.205
.256
.330
1.9
0.5
2.21
4.38
AJ Smith-Shawver
.241
.332
.412
.234
.333
.398
1.9
0.4
3.93
5.25
Luis De Avila
.252
.353
.412
.266
.341
.434
1.7
0.4
4.31
5.27
Dylan Dodd
.256
.307
.402
.274
.330
.458
1.6
0.4
4.15
5.29
Kolby Allard
.240
.295
.396
.254
.314
.442
1.6
0.3
3.80
5.20
Darius Vines
.253
.317
.418
.262
.318
.457
1.5
0.5
3.92
5.07
Huascar Ynoa
.238
.326
.381
.247
.315
.411
1.4
0.4
3.76
5.05
A.J. Minter
.213
.264
.288
.233
.296
.423
1.6
0.1
2.71
4.97
Hurston Waldrep
.250
.352
.411
.230
.315
.397
1.2
0.2
3.91
5.29
Penn Murfee
.243
.331
.405
.235
.309
.404
1.3
0.1
3.37
5.04
Nolan Kingham
.293
.345
.465
.275
.330
.456
1.1
0.2
4.31
5.32
Matt Swarmer
.267
.341
.459
.270
.340
.460
1.3
0.1
4.11
5.33
Dylan Lee
.222
.258
.365
.246
.290
.410
1.1
0.2
2.63
4.31
Drew Parrish
.264
.359
.376
.268
.347
.464
1.2
0.0
4.56
5.68
Yonny Chirinos
.257
.319
.433
.281
.335
.467
1.2
0.1
4.27
5.41
Scott Blewett
.283
.358
.472
.264
.333
.417
1.1
0.1
4.31
5.47
Zach Logue
.252
.317
.396
.282
.351
.480
1.1
-0.2
4.53
5.79
Collin McHugh
.255
.325
.436
.261
.321
.412
1.2
0.0
3.31
5.31
Joe Jiménez
.225
.303
.416
.220
.289
.376
1.0
0.0
2.77
4.66
Tyler Owens
.262
.333
.429
.277
.346
.460
0.9
0.1
4.29
5.46
Pierce Johnson
.233
.317
.378
.241
.303
.444
1.1
-0.3
2.80
5.87
Aaron Bummer
.203
.272
.324
.239
.344
.410
1.1
-0.3
3.10
5.55
Nick Margevicius
.269
.326
.462
.291
.346
.471
0.8
0.0
4.33
5.49
Patrick Halligan
.284
.364
.474
.266
.321
.434
0.8
0.0
4.40
5.49
Daniel Martinez
.285
.370
.457
.266
.343
.469
0.7
-0.2
4.82
5.96
Jose Montilla
.274
.328
.479
.285
.331
.415
0.7
0.1
4.18
5.19
Jackson Stephens
.272
.346
.457
.250
.317
.407
0.7
-0.1
3.80
5.31
Beau Burrows
.258
.351
.422
.265
.349
.440
0.8
-0.3
4.59
5.94
Domingo Gonzalez
.261
.373
.462
.256
.339
.404
0.7
-0.2
4.46
5.54
Jake McSteen
.231
.274
.359
.302
.356
.512
0.7
-0.1
4.23
5.54
Dereck Rodríguez
.256
.336
.442
.289
.351
.480
0.9
-0.2
4.38
5.75
Grant Holmes
.260
.339
.394
.263
.338
.466
0.7
-0.2
3.85
5.31
Justus Sheffield
.242
.346
.374
.296
.381
.495
0.7
-0.2
4.72
5.91
Brooks Wilson
.246
.342
.406
.236
.309
.417
0.6
-0.1
3.75
5.31
Hayden Harris
.222
.310
.349
.243
.329
.417
0.7
-0.2
3.55
4.97
Jesse Chavez
.256
.333
.423
.261
.320
.477
0.7
-0.3
3.30
6.50
Angel Perdomo
.182
.308
.327
.222
.341
.398
0.8
-0.3
3.26
5.23
Tyler Matzek
.208
.300
.358
.244
.345
.412
0.7
-0.3
3.43
5.34
Coleman Huntley III
.256
.333
.442
.269
.337
.419
0.6
-0.2
3.90
5.48
Ty Tice
.278
.375
.478
.225
.315
.360
0.6
-0.3
4.03
5.45
Lucas Luetge
.246
.303
.377
.288
.355
.486
0.5
-0.3
3.63
5.82
Hayden Deal
.274
.357
.438
.278
.358
.449
0.4
-0.3
4.71
5.89
Ben Bowden
.273
.342
.409
.226
.331
.411
0.6
-0.5
3.75
5.70
Tommy Doyle
.250
.342
.427
.252
.314
.430
0.5
-0.4
3.90
5.57
Seth Elledge
.276
.354
.494
.243
.325
.369
0.5
-0.4
3.90
5.51
Daysbel Hernández
.242
.365
.419
.231
.320
.415
0.4
-0.3
3.80
5.62
Roel Ramírez
.262
.357
.443
.263
.329
.434
0.3
-0.3
4.15
5.72
Brian Moran
.241
.349
.407
.252
.333
.437
0.4
-0.5
3.76
6.04
Danny Young
.208
.321
.313
.273
.375
.489
0.3
-0.4
3.85
5.88
Brad Hand
.218
.306
.309
.260
.354
.472
0.5
-0.5
3.86
6.11
Mike Morin
.271
.375
.438
.246
.309
.443
0.2
-0.3
4.51
6.01
Peyton Williams
.266
.363
.443
.244
.330
.411
0.2
-0.4
4.25
5.47
Alex Segal
.250
.379
.417
.255
.373
.418
0.0
-0.4
4.87
6.31
Miguel Pena
.276
.382
.474
.250
.330
.409
0.1
-0.5
4.70
5.98
Joe Harvey
.255
.388
.455
.259
.362
.466
0.0
-0.6
4.91
7.05
Jorge Juan
.250
.407
.458
.241
.371
.405
0.0
-0.7
5.03
6.62
Trey Riley
.260
.387
.455
.261
.377
.420
-0.1
-0.8
5.02
6.49
Nick Howard
.310
.453
.548
.255
.371
.431
-0.2
-0.6
5.41
7.14
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.