For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Batters
Last year, I noted in this space that I had to double-check the Diamondbacks’ ZiPS projections, as the computer seemed surprisingly optimistic about Arizona’s outlook. It turned out to be a little too optimistic, though I was wrong about the relative strength of the Giants and Padres, who both finished below the Snakes in the standings (though you can quibble about how good the Padres actually were in 2023).
Naturally, since ZiPS had a sunny view of Arizona then, it’s certainly not going to be less sunny now that a lot of the things the system liked have came to pass. Looking at the 2024 projections as a whole, they actually feels very Cardinals-y, and not in the sense of the 2023 Cardinals. The projections from top to bottom are quite steady, in the manner of a good Cards team, with a lot of positional flexibility on the roster and a solidly above-average projected defense from bow to stern.
ZiPS liked Corbin Carroll enough going into last season to make him its top prospect (by a hair) over Gunnar Henderson, and his Rookie of the Year campaign, which saw him in the MVP conversation during the first half, didn’t exactly change the computer’s mind. The relatively low numbers on the depth chart come down to Carroll’s contributions being spread out among all three outfield positions. Of the timeshare candidates, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Alek Thomas both project as solidly average contributors, and ZiPS thinks Jake McCarthy, though down from his 2022 big league performance, is at least a decent stopgap.
ZiPS sees Christian Walker as the best defensive first baseman in baseball among actual starters and isn’t projecting a meaningful decline for Ketel Marte just yet. The computer is in on Jordan Lawlar, though it’s less enthusiastic about Geraldo Perdomo. Eugenio Suárez’s projection is disappointing, as ZiPS sees his glove falling off more than his bat bouncing bat, but he should at least give the Diamondbacks what they had hoped to get from Evan Longoria (and didn’t). Gabriel Moreno shined in his first stint in the majors as the unquestioned starter at catcher.
Pitchers
Zac Gallen has long been a ZiPS favorite and while he fell off in the Cy Young race (with Blake Snell nearly sweeping), he’s an undoubted ace and The Guy in Arizona. Merrill Kelly was arguably nearly as good as Gallen in 2023 and projects to remain a fine assistant to the ace starter. The question is who comes next, a quandary that plagued the Snakes as they prepared for the playoffs. One very good answer is the addition of Eduardo Rodriguez. While the Diamondbacks might have felt burned by how the Madison Bumgarner contract worked out, E-Rod projects significantly better now than Bumgarner did at the time of his signing. In that last deal, the Diamondbacks made the mistake of paying for a player’s past rather than his future, as Bumgarner’s strikeout rate and quality-of-contact metrics were already slipping.
The E-Rod signing serves to push Brandon Pfaadt into the fourth starter spot. He was a bit disappointing during the regular season in 2023, but he was sterling in most of his playoff appearances, which ZiPS does take into consideration. And his rookie year wasn’t quite the disappointment that his ERA/FIP make it out to be; if you want to bet on a bounce-back season, bet on the otherwise competent pitcher who had a freaky home run rate. Like Corbin Burnes at a similar point in his career or Andrew Heaney a few years ago, these players tend to regress heavily toward more normal home run rates.
That just leaves the fifth starter, and the D-backs have enough talent hanging around to decide on that spot on the fly, with a number of plausible options. Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry have similar projections, and ZiPS remains positive on Slade Cecconi. The computer is also a huge fan of Yu-Min Lin, who held his own at Double-A at just 19, though he doesn’t possess the big fastball that scouts like, so he’s far from a sure thing.
Arizona’s bullpen was middle of the road in 2023 and ZiPS projects that to continue. Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel have projections that put them head-and-shoulders above the rest of the relief corp, but otherwise the ‘pen, while deep, projects as serviceable rather than stellar. At least there are no projected disasters currently expected to get playing time, which should serve to keep the late innings away from any nasty surprises.
Overall, the Diamondbacks project a little better than in 2023, in the 84-88 win range. It took some good fortune to get to the World Series last year, fortune that promptly abandoned them once they got there. But this remains a solid team that is poised to contend for a Wild Card spot, though it would still be a major upset if they made the Dodgers shake in their shoes, especially after the Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto signings.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Corbin Carroll
L
23
RF
636
556
98
151
27
9
20
87
60
137
39
5
Ketel Marte
B
30
2B
581
516
77
144
35
4
19
72
56
98
6
1
Gabriel Moreno
R
24
C
371
336
39
93
17
1
8
44
27
69
4
1
Christian Walker
R
33
1B
588
517
73
131
30
2
22
81
59
122
7
1
Jordan Lawlar
R
21
SS
531
474
78
117
20
5
11
61
43
138
22
5
Alek Thomas
L
24
CF
537
492
69
127
25
7
12
63
34
109
9
3
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
R
30
LF
541
499
59
140
32
2
16
68
33
95
4
2
Eugenio Suárez
R
32
3B
615
533
65
121
26
1
22
75
65
182
1
1
Jorge Barrosa
B
23
CF
527
468
66
114
23
4
8
54
47
104
12
7
Jake McCarthy
L
26
RF
508
459
68
121
21
8
9
56
37
105
29
6
Geraldo Perdomo
B
24
SS
500
422
65
102
16
4
6
45
56
97
12
5
Dominic Fletcher
L
26
CF
477
431
60
110
21
5
8
55
33
114
3
4
Andrés Chaparro
R
25
3B
528
476
59
115
23
3
14
62
41
127
2
1
Emmanuel Rivera
R
28
3B
419
383
53
97
20
3
10
50
30
84
2
1
Nick Ahmed
R
34
SS
332
308
32
72
18
2
5
31
22
78
5
1
Mark Mathias
R
29
2B
308
270
31
66
13
1
6
36
31
82
7
2
Ivan Melendez
R
24
3B
415
379
42
79
17
1
16
62
21
166
2
1
Jace Peterson
L
34
3B
372
326
39
77
14
3
6
36
39
89
11
1
Evan Longoria
R
38
3B
266
237
29
56
12
0
9
32
24
77
0
1
Blaze Alexander
R
25
SS
382
341
41
75
14
2
8
44
29
128
4
3
Pavin Smith
L
28
RF
482
427
56
107
19
2
12
54
50
96
2
1
David Martin
L
23
C
383
337
35
86
13
0
2
33
35
59
0
2
Kyle Lewis
R
28
DH
336
300
41
76
11
0
12
43
32
90
1
1
Tommy Pham
R
36
LF
478
423
57
105
23
2
11
51
48
114
14
3
Tim Tawa
R
25
2B
472
430
48
97
18
2
9
44
37
128
6
4
Yairo Muñoz
R
29
1B
332
314
37
88
15
2
5
36
13
62
8
3
Diego Castillo
R
26
LF
506
451
62
113
25
0
7
51
48
94
6
5
Jose Herrera
B
27
C
288
254
29
58
9
1
3
23
28
66
1
1
Jancarlos Cintron
R
29
SS
343
322
36
81
15
1
3
31
15
60
5
3
Phillip Evans
R
31
3B
487
431
56
109
19
1
6
45
45
83
1
1
Tommy Troy
R
22
SS
121
109
13
25
5
1
3
13
10
37
5
1
Juan Centeno
L
34
C
267
250
21
58
11
0
2
22
13
70
1
1
Tristin English
R
27
1B
425
385
43
89
17
0
10
51
28
116
2
2
Andy Weber
L
26
2B
400
365
46
87
20
2
2
37
28
108
2
1
Kevin Vicuña
R
26
SS
290
265
28
65
11
2
2
27
13
67
5
3
Camden Duzenack
R
29
SS
334
306
38
72
15
1
6
37
17
84
3
3
A.J. Vukovich
R
22
CF
527
496
57
112
19
3
12
57
27
161
14
5
Adrian Del Castillo
L
24
C
392
351
33
75
16
2
6
37
34
120
1
1
Wilderd Patiño
R
22
CF
483
435
61
95
15
1
6
52
29
165
29
7
J.J. D’Orazio
R
22
C
426
393
38
92
21
2
5
37
26
109
1
1
Roby Enriquez
L
27
RF
267
241
22
56
12
0
2
25
18
54
3
2
Kristian Robinson
R
23
RF
286
259
30
54
7
2
9
37
19
109
12
5
Jesus Valdez
R
26
3B
304
293
30
67
12
2
8
34
7
94
3
2
Jake Hager
R
31
SS
317
288
32
62
17
1
4
30
21
89
3
2
Jean Walters
B
22
RF
246
231
26
54
9
2
1
18
10
58
2
1
Nick Dalesandro
R
27
CF
267
244
27
53
8
1
1
19
18
80
14
3
Kevin Graham
L
24
RF
265
244
25
53
9
2
2
22
17
80
3
2
Garrett Wolforth
R
26
C
278
260
25
49
12
2
5
26
15
112
1
1
Brett Johnson
L
24
RF
312
268
29
47
15
1
2
22
37
117
7
2
Neyfy Castillo
R
23
RF
417
383
42
77
13
3
9
44
27
161
11
5
Sheng-Ping Chen
L
23
2B
351
322
31
65
13
1
4
27
24
117
3
2
Caleb Roberts
L
24
LF
444
396
48
84
17
5
7
45
39
140
6
3
Jonathan Guzman
R
24
LF
359
333
30
64
7
3
2
22
19
110
6
3
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC
Corbin Carroll
636
.272
.354
.460
123
.189
.328
10
4.6
.352
101
Ketel Marte
581
.279
.353
.473
126
.194
.313
-3
3.6
.354
88
Gabriel Moreno
371
.277
.334
.405
103
.128
.328
9
2.8
.322
47
Christian Walker
588
.253
.335
.447
114
.193
.292
7
2.7
.337
79
Jordan Lawlar
531
.247
.322
.380
93
.133
.326
3
2.4
.309
64
Alek Thomas
537
.258
.310
.411
97
.152
.310
5
2.2
.311
66
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
541
.281
.328
.449
112
.168
.320
2
2.0
.333
75
Eugenio Suárez
615
.227
.319
.403
98
.176
.301
0
2.0
.316
69
Jorge Barrosa
527
.244
.318
.361
88
.118
.298
7
1.8
.301
59
Jake McCarthy
508
.264
.327
.403
101
.139
.325
5
1.8
.318
69
Geraldo Perdomo
500
.242
.338
.341
89
.100
.301
0
1.7
.305
53
Dominic Fletcher
477
.255
.316
.383
92
.128
.330
5
1.6
.305
54
Andrés Chaparro
528
.242
.309
.391
92
.149
.301
2
1.5
.305
58
Emmanuel Rivera
419
.253
.310
.399
95
.146
.301
0
1.1
.308
48
Nick Ahmed
332
.234
.286
.354
76
.120
.298
5
0.9
.279
33
Mark Mathias
308
.244
.328
.367
92
.122
.330
0
0.9
.308
35
Ivan Melendez
415
.208
.272
.385
79
.177
.320
5
0.9
.286
41
Jace Peterson
372
.236
.321
.353
86
.117
.307
-1
0.8
.299
40
Evan Longoria
266
.236
.308
.401
94
.165
.311
1
0.8
.307
30
Blaze Alexander
382
.220
.297
.343
77
.123
.327
2
0.7
.284
37
Pavin Smith
482
.251
.330
.389
98
.138
.298
-2
0.7
.315
56
David Martin
383
.255
.337
.312
81
.056
.304
-3
0.6
.295
36
Kyle Lewis
336
.253
.327
.410
103
.157
.323
0
0.6
.322
41
Tommy Pham
478
.248
.326
.390
97
.142
.315
-3
0.6
.314
58
Tim Tawa
472
.226
.288
.340
73
.114
.300
5
0.6
.277
45
Yairo Muñoz
332
.280
.311
.389
92
.108
.336
4
0.5
.304
41
Diego Castillo
506
.251
.325
.353
88
.102
.303
3
0.5
.301
55
Jose Herrera
288
.228
.306
.307
71
.079
.297
1
0.4
.277
25
Jancarlos Cintron
343
.252
.290
.332
72
.081
.301
2
0.4
.275
33
Phillip Evans
487
.253
.331
.343
87
.090
.301
-5
0.4
.300
50
Tommy Troy
121
.229
.298
.376
85
.147
.319
0
0.4
.294
14
Juan Centeno
267
.232
.274
.300
59
.068
.315
4
0.3
.255
21
Tristin English
425
.231
.296
.353
79
.122
.305
6
0.2
.287
42
Andy Weber
400
.238
.300
.321
72
.082
.333
0
0.1
.277
36
Kevin Vicuña
290
.245
.296
.325
72
.079
.321
-2
0.1
.276
28
Camden Duzenack
334
.235
.285
.350
74
.114
.306
-2
0.1
.278
32
A.J. Vukovich
527
.226
.269
.349
69
.123
.310
1
-0.1
.269
52
Adrian Del Castillo
392
.214
.286
.322
68
.108
.307
-4
-0.1
.271
33
Wilderd Patiño
483
.218
.293
.299
64
.080
.337
-2
-0.2
.267
47
J.J. D’Orazio
426
.234
.282
.336
70
.102
.312
-5
-0.2
.271
38
Roby Enriquez
267
.232
.300
.307
69
.075
.292
2
-0.3
.271
24
Kristian Robinson
286
.208
.280
.355
74
.147
.319
-1
-0.4
.278
30
Jesus Valdez
304
.229
.250
.365
67
.137
.309
-1
-0.5
.264
28
Jake Hager
317
.215
.271
.323
64
.108
.297
-5
-0.6
.262
27
Jean Walters
246
.234
.267
.303
58
.069
.308
2
-0.7
.250
20
Nick Dalesandro
267
.217
.274
.270
52
.053
.319
-4
-0.9
.246
22
Kevin Graham
265
.217
.272
.295
57
.078
.315
0
-0.9
.253
21
Garrett Wolforth
278
.188
.237
.308
49
.119
.308
-4
-1.0
.239
20
Brett Johnson
312
.175
.282
.261
52
.086
.302
1
-1.0
.250
22
Neyfy Castillo
417
.201
.264
.321
61
.120
.319
2
-1.0
.259
37
Sheng-Ping Chen
351
.202
.261
.286
51
.084
.303
-1
-1.0
.245
25
Caleb Roberts
444
.212
.293
.333
73
.121
.309
-6
-1.2
.278
41
Jonathan Guzman
359
.192
.239
.249
36
.057
.281
1
-2.1
.220
22
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Corbin Carroll
.301
.385
.515
145
6.4
.244
.326
.407
102
3.0
Ketel Marte
.305
.379
.534
146
5.0
.254
.327
.428
107
2.3
Gabriel Moreno
.305
.363
.456
124
3.8
.246
.306
.355
82
1.8
Christian Walker
.278
.358
.491
130
4.0
.227
.310
.398
95
1.4
Jordan Lawlar
.273
.349
.431
111
3.6
.224
.299
.339
75
1.2
Alek Thomas
.286
.334
.456
115
3.4
.233
.284
.367
80
0.9
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
.307
.355
.495
131
3.4
.253
.301
.403
94
0.8
Eugenio Suárez
.255
.342
.450
117
3.4
.203
.294
.359
82
0.8
Jorge Barrosa
.271
.343
.410
106
3.0
.214
.291
.314
68
0.5
Jake McCarthy
.292
.352
.452
120
3.1
.238
.303
.356
84
0.8
Geraldo Perdomo
.268
.367
.383
107
2.8
.214
.313
.299
72
0.6
Dominic Fletcher
.283
.340
.430
111
2.7
.229
.288
.340
75
0.6
Andrés Chaparro
.270
.335
.437
111
2.7
.217
.282
.347
75
0.3
Emmanuel Rivera
.282
.336
.447
114
2.1
.229
.284
.347
74
0.1
Nick Ahmed
.262
.315
.401
96
1.8
.205
.259
.310
57
0.2
Mark Mathias
.273
.356
.414
112
1.6
.214
.297
.322
72
0.1
Ivan Melendez
.241
.303
.446
102
2.1
.181
.242
.331
58
-0.3
Jace Peterson
.266
.348
.399
106
1.7
.208
.293
.307
69
0.0
Evan Longoria
.264
.338
.443
112
1.3
.210
.284
.348
75
0.1
Blaze Alexander
.250
.325
.393
97
1.7
.196
.270
.295
59
-0.1
Pavin Smith
.280
.357
.438
116
1.8
.228
.306
.340
80
-0.3
David Martin
.284
.365
.350
99
1.5
.219
.298
.275
62
-0.4
Kyle Lewis
.279
.356
.463
123
1.5
.222
.298
.362
83
-0.3
Tommy Pham
.275
.351
.436
116
1.8
.222
.303
.344
81
-0.4
Tim Tawa
.258
.319
.391
92
1.7
.197
.257
.289
51
-0.6
Yairo Muñoz
.315
.345
.435
114
1.4
.247
.280
.347
73
-0.3
Diego Castillo
.278
.350
.393
106
1.6
.223
.295
.311
71
-0.8
Jose Herrera
.266
.344
.360
96
1.3
.195
.277
.264
53
-0.2
Jancarlos Cintron
.283
.322
.369
89
1.2
.223
.263
.292
55
-0.4
Phillip Evans
.282
.356
.383
104
1.4
.225
.300
.308
70
-0.7
Tommy Troy
.264
.332
.449
111
0.8
.195
.267
.312
61
0.0
Juan Centeno
.265
.305
.340
78
0.9
.204
.246
.262
40
-0.4
Tristin English
.259
.323
.407
97
1.2
.203
.266
.312
60
-0.9
Andy Weber
.269
.330
.358
91
1.0
.210
.272
.279
55
-0.8
Kevin Vicuña
.271
.324
.364
89
0.7
.215
.268
.285
54
-0.6
Camden Duzenack
.266
.315
.405
95
1.0
.210
.259
.302
55
-0.8
A.J. Vukovich
.250
.294
.391
87
1.1
.199
.245
.305
52
-1.3
Adrian Del Castillo
.246
.319
.377
90
0.9
.181
.257
.275
47
-1.2
Wilderd Patiño
.243
.313
.336
79
0.7
.192
.271
.263
50
-1.1
J.J. D’Orazio
.269
.317
.388
91
0.9
.205
.254
.298
51
-1.3
Roby Enriquez
.262
.328
.351
88
0.3
.206
.273
.272
53
-0.9
Kristian Robinson
.237
.308
.417
96
0.4
.178
.256
.304
54
-1.1
Jesus Valdez
.257
.279
.426
91
0.4
.201
.224
.321
49
-1.2
Jake Hager
.246
.303
.372
83
0.1
.185
.241
.277
44
-1.5
Jean Walters
.268
.300
.350
80
0.0
.205
.239
.261
41
-1.3
Nick Dalesandro
.246
.304
.309
71
-0.2
.186
.246
.236
36
-1.4
Kevin Graham
.242
.298
.334
75
-0.3
.188
.241
.251
39
-1.6
Garrett Wolforth
.217
.270
.362
71
-0.2
.157
.208
.259
29
-1.7
Brett Johnson
.205
.313
.303
72
-0.2
.143
.251
.213
32
-1.8
Neyfy Castillo
.230
.291
.364
80
0.0
.176
.240
.279
44
-1.9
Sheng-Ping Chen
.237
.295
.342
74
0.0
.175
.231
.247
31
-1.9
Caleb Roberts
.241
.324
.378
92
-0.1
.189
.269
.293
55
-2.1
Jonathan Guzman
.222
.272
.290
55
-1.2
.165
.216
.211
21
-2.8
Batters – Projected Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Corbin Carroll
.264
.345
.443
.275
.359
.469
Ketel Marte
.290
.360
.503
.274
.349
.458
Gabriel Moreno
.286
.346
.429
.270
.326
.388
Christian Walker
.253
.345
.447
.254
.330
.447
Jordan Lawlar
.257
.338
.404
.241
.312
.364
Alek Thomas
.252
.304
.413
.261
.313
.409
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
.285
.335
.455
.278
.324
.446
Eugenio Suárez
.235
.335
.405
.224
.312
.403
Jorge Barrosa
.241
.317
.359
.245
.319
.363
Jake McCarthy
.252
.317
.391
.269
.331
.409
Geraldo Perdomo
.239
.333
.333
.243
.340
.345
Dominic Fletcher
.240
.302
.355
.266
.326
.403
Andrés Chaparro
.247
.321
.402
.238
.300
.383
Emmanuel Rivera
.261
.324
.420
.248
.301
.385
Nick Ahmed
.241
.293
.380
.230
.282
.340
Mark Mathias
.248
.343
.388
.242
.315
.349
Ivan Melendez
.210
.278
.385
.208
.268
.386
Jace Peterson
.224
.303
.328
.239
.325
.359
Evan Longoria
.247
.325
.425
.232
.301
.390
Blaze Alexander
.224
.304
.362
.217
.290
.328
Pavin Smith
.239
.315
.372
.255
.335
.395
David Martin
.245
.327
.277
.259
.341
.325
Kyle Lewis
.254
.338
.421
.253
.320
.403
Tommy Pham
.254
.344
.410
.246
.318
.381
Tim Tawa
.227
.295
.331
.225
.284
.345
Yairo Muñoz
.284
.322
.396
.278
.303
.383
Diego Castillo
.256
.341
.377
.246
.312
.333
Jose Herrera
.229
.308
.292
.228
.305
.316
Jancarlos Cintron
.256
.299
.341
.247
.281
.323
Phillip Evans
.254
.337
.364
.252
.326
.329
Tommy Troy
.244
.320
.400
.219
.282
.359
Juan Centeno
.224
.272
.303
.236
.276
.299
Tristin English
.234
.303
.353
.229
.292
.353
Andy Weber
.226
.286
.322
.244
.307
.320
Kevin Vicuña
.250
.300
.333
.241
.293
.317
Camden Duzenack
.231
.279
.369
.239
.289
.335
A.J. Vukovich
.225
.272
.348
.226
.268
.349
Adrian Del Castillo
.209
.279
.318
.216
.290
.324
Wilderd Patiño
.227
.299
.324
.212
.288
.280
J.J. D’Orazio
.237
.290
.346
.232
.277
.329
Roby Enriquez
.225
.291
.310
.235
.303
.306
Kristian Robinson
.206
.283
.343
.210
.277
.363
Jesus Valdez
.233
.256
.371
.226
.246
.362
Jake Hager
.215
.280
.338
.215
.263
.310
Jean Walters
.230
.264
.287
.236
.270
.313
Nick Dalesandro
.221
.287
.279
.214
.265
.264
Kevin Graham
.200
.260
.300
.224
.277
.293
Garrett Wolforth
.195
.254
.319
.184
.224
.299
Brett Johnson
.171
.276
.263
.177
.284
.260
Neyfy Castillo
.209
.277
.342
.196
.254
.307
Sheng-Ping Chen
.191
.250
.252
.208
.267
.304
Caleb Roberts
.200
.281
.317
.217
.298
.341
Jonathan Guzman
.193
.245
.262
.191
.235
.239
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Zac Gallen
R
28
13
9
3.57
31
31
186.3
165
74
23
55
175
Paul Sewald
R
34
4
2
3.60
58
0
55.0
46
22
8
19
66
Kevin Ginkel
R
30
5
4
3.60
58
0
60.0
51
24
7
24
66
Eduardo Rodriguez
L
31
11
8
3.65
25
25
138.0
135
56
16
43
135
Joe Mantiply
L
33
3
3
3.91
49
3
48.3
50
21
6
13
43
Peter Strzelecki
R
29
3
3
3.94
41
0
45.7
41
20
5
17
49
Miguel Castro
R
29
5
4
3.97
64
0
56.7
49
25
7
25
62
Brandon Pfaadt
R
25
9
9
3.97
27
27
147.3
142
65
19
36
143
Merrill Kelly
R
35
9
9
3.97
26
26
154.0
148
68
21
47
132
Nabil Crismatt
R
29
3
4
3.97
30
6
65.7
69
29
8
20
56
Drey Jameson
R
26
7
6
4.01
22
16
101.0
98
45
12
36
94
Andrew Saalfrank
L
26
5
4
4.04
49
0
64.7
57
29
7
32
70
Kyle Nelson
L
27
4
4
4.04
59
2
49.0
45
22
7
20
53
Luis Frías
R
26
4
3
4.08
42
7
70.7
66
32
8
32
73
Ryan Thompson
R
32
3
3
4.09
43
0
44.0
43
20
6
14
38
Slade Cecconi
R
25
7
6
4.12
26
23
126.7
127
58
16
33
101
Taylor Rashi
R
28
3
3
4.15
25
2
30.3
28
14
4
15
31
Blake Workman
R
26
2
3
4.17
26
0
41.0
41
19
5
12
36
Scott McGough
R
34
4
4
4.20
47
1
60.0
57
28
8
24
64
Christian Montes De Oca
R
24
2
3
4.25
40
0
55.0
55
26
7
22
45
Yu-Min Lin
L
20
5
5
4.28
23
23
107.3
102
51
12
45
100
Stephen Nogosek
R
29
1
2
4.31
26
1
39.7
39
19
5
18
38
Ryne Nelson
R
26
7
8
4.32
28
26
143.7
144
69
19
47
114
Tyler Gilbert
L
30
5
5
4.34
31
9
83.0
82
40
11
28
69
Austin Pope
R
25
3
4
4.36
38
4
64.0
65
31
8
25
58
Bryce Jarvis
R
26
6
8
4.43
30
18
107.7
107
53
13
48
91
Tommy Henry
L
26
5
5
4.43
22
21
111.7
111
55
13
45
86
Dylan Ray
R
23
7
8
4.47
23
23
100.7
100
50
12
37
81
Kyle Backhus
L
26
4
5
4.47
43
1
58.3
58
29
7
27
51
Corbin Martin
R
28
4
5
4.50
16
13
66.0
67
33
9
32
60
José Castillo
L
28
3
4
4.50
37
0
38.0
36
19
5
20
40
Blake Walston
L
23
7
9
4.52
28
28
135.3
140
68
13
62
95
Jeff Bain
R
28
3
4
4.55
24
8
63.3
68
32
8
19
47
Yilber Diaz
R
23
5
7
4.65
24
24
91.0
85
47
11
51
89
Peter Solomon
R
27
4
6
4.65
26
16
98.7
102
51
12
44
79
Tyler Zuber
R
29
2
2
4.66
37
0
36.7
33
19
5
21
38
Will Mabrey
L
23
3
5
4.71
41
2
57.3
59
30
7
27
43
Josh Green
R
28
4
4
4.72
32
5
68.7
76
36
8
22
42
Konnor Pilkington
L
26
4
5
4.72
24
18
82.0
81
43
10
46
71
Raffi Vizcaíno
R
28
2
3
4.73
39
3
45.7
43
24
6
30
47
Luke Albright
R
24
5
7
4.78
22
22
101.7
103
54
12
56
86
Gerald Ogando
R
23
3
4
4.79
31
0
41.3
41
22
5
25
36
Francisco Morales
R
24
4
5
4.82
28
9
56.0
49
30
6
40
60
Justin Martinez
R
22
1
2
4.86
49
0
53.7
46
29
7
40
66
Jake Rice
L
26
2
2
4.91
33
0
36.7
35
20
5
24
35
Collin Snider
R
28
3
3
4.95
52
1
56.3
60
31
7
31
43
Zach Davies
R
31
3
5
4.98
21
21
99.3
105
55
14
45
76
Conor Grammes
R
26
3
3
5.00
31
5
45.0
42
25
6
32
48
Jackson Goddard
R
27
2
2
5.02
20
6
43.0
46
24
6
24
36
Mitchell Stumpo
R
28
2
3
5.06
38
0
42.7
41
24
6
29
41
Jamison Hill
R
25
5
7
5.08
24
23
102.7
107
58
13
59
73
Aaron Sanchez
R
31
4
5
5.09
20
18
81.3
91
46
10
40
51
Deyni Olivero
R
26
4
6
5.12
18
18
82.7
96
47
10
34
41
Chris Rodriguez
R
25
1
3
5.12
22
8
45.7
48
26
6
25
37
Madison Bumgarner
L
34
5
8
5.16
19
19
104.7
113
60
18
34
76
Marcos Tineo
R
27
2
4
5.36
18
7
48.7
52
29
7
30
39
Ricky Karcher
R
26
3
6
5.44
47
0
51.3
45
31
6
49
54
John Matthews
R
26
2
3
5.51
28
3
50.7
54
31
7
29
38
Zach Barnes
R
25
3
4
5.51
35
0
49.0
53
30
6
32
33
Endrys Briceno
R
32
0
0
6.14
13
0
14.7
15
10
2
10
10
Hugh Fisher
L
25
1
3
6.26
24
0
27.3
27
19
4
23
23
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Zac Gallen
186.3
8.5
2.7
1.1
7.1%
22.6%
.277
118
3.98
85
3.5
Paul Sewald
55.0
10.8
3.1
1.3
8.3%
28.9%
.284
117
3.89
86
0.7
Kevin Ginkel
60.0
9.9
3.6
1.1
9.4%
25.9%
.286
117
3.87
86
0.6
Eduardo Rodriguez
138.0
8.8
2.8
1.0
7.4%
23.1%
.306
115
3.81
87
2.5
Joe Mantiply
48.3
8.0
2.4
1.1
6.3%
20.8%
.308
108
4.02
93
0.5
Peter Strzelecki
45.7
9.7
3.4
1.0
8.8%
25.4%
.298
107
3.91
94
0.3
Miguel Castro
56.7
9.8
4.0
1.1
10.2%
25.4%
.288
106
4.21
94
0.3
Brandon Pfaadt
147.3
8.7
2.2
1.2
5.9%
23.3%
.299
106
3.87
94
2.1
Merrill Kelly
154.0
7.7
2.7
1.2
7.2%
20.3%
.285
106
4.29
95
2.2
Nabil Crismatt
65.7
7.7
2.7
1.1
7.1%
19.8%
.310
106
4.18
95
0.7
Drey Jameson
101.0
8.4
3.2
1.1
8.3%
21.7%
.299
105
4.19
95
1.4
Andrew Saalfrank
64.7
9.7
4.5
1.0
11.3%
24.6%
.294
104
4.07
96
0.3
Kyle Nelson
49.0
9.7
3.7
1.3
9.5%
25.2%
.295
104
4.36
96
0.3
Luis Frías
70.7
9.3
4.1
1.0
10.4%
23.6%
.302
103
4.06
97
0.7
Ryan Thompson
44.0
7.8
2.9
1.2
7.5%
20.3%
.289
103
4.39
97
0.2
Slade Cecconi
126.7
7.2
2.3
1.1
6.2%
18.9%
.291
102
4.30
98
1.6
Taylor Rashi
30.3
9.2
4.5
1.2
11.2%
23.1%
.293
101
4.51
99
0.2
Blake Workman
41.0
7.9
2.6
1.1
6.9%
20.6%
.300
101
4.18
99
0.2
Scott McGough
60.0
9.6
3.6
1.2
9.2%
24.5%
.304
100
4.11
100
0.3
Christian Montes De Oca
55.0
7.4
3.6
1.1
8.9%
18.3%
.293
99
4.64
101
0.1
Yu-Min Lin
107.3
8.4
3.8
1.0
9.6%
21.3%
.296
98
4.35
102
1.2
Stephen Nogosek
39.7
8.6
4.1
1.1
10.3%
21.7%
.304
98
4.49
103
0.2
Ryne Nelson
143.7
7.1
2.9
1.2
7.6%
18.5%
.290
97
4.47
103
1.5
Tyler Gilbert
83.0
7.5
3.0
1.2
7.9%
19.5%
.290
97
4.44
103
0.7
Austin Pope
64.0
8.2
3.5
1.1
8.9%
20.6%
.306
96
4.43
104
0.4
Bryce Jarvis
107.7
7.6
4.0
1.1
10.0%
19.0%
.296
95
4.58
105
0.9
Tommy Henry
111.7
6.9
3.6
1.0
9.2%
17.6%
.289
95
4.54
105
1.0
Dylan Ray
100.7
7.2
3.3
1.1
8.5%
18.6%
.292
94
4.48
106
0.9
Kyle Backhus
58.3
7.9
4.2
1.1
10.5%
19.8%
.298
94
4.61
106
0.1
Corbin Martin
66.0
8.2
4.4
1.2
10.8%
20.3%
.304
93
4.71
107
0.5
José Castillo
38.0
9.5
4.7
1.2
11.9%
23.8%
.304
93
4.68
107
0.0
Blake Walston
135.3
6.3
4.1
0.9
10.3%
15.8%
.297
93
4.63
108
1.2
Jeff Bain
63.3
6.7
2.7
1.1
6.9%
17.2%
.303
92
4.55
108
0.4
Yilber Diaz
91.0
8.8
5.0
1.1
12.2%
21.3%
.294
90
4.75
111
0.7
Peter Solomon
98.7
7.2
4.0
1.1
9.9%
17.8%
.300
90
4.66
111
0.7
Tyler Zuber
36.7
9.3
5.2
1.2
12.8%
23.2%
.286
90
4.76
111
-0.1
Will Mabrey
57.3
6.8
4.2
1.1
10.5%
16.7%
.294
89
4.96
112
-0.1
Josh Green
68.7
5.5
2.9
1.0
7.3%
14.0%
.301
89
4.81
112
0.1
Konnor Pilkington
82.0
7.8
5.0
1.1
12.4%
19.1%
.296
89
4.94
112
0.5
Raffi Vizcaíno
45.7
9.3
5.9
1.2
14.1%
22.1%
.298
89
5.01
113
-0.1
Luke Albright
101.7
7.6
5.0
1.1
12.1%
18.6%
.300
88
4.90
114
0.6
Gerald Ogando
41.3
7.8
5.4
1.1
13.1%
18.8%
.298
88
5.05
114
-0.2
Francisco Morales
56.0
9.6
6.4
1.0
15.2%
22.7%
.293
87
4.97
115
0.1
Justin Martinez
53.7
11.1
6.7
1.2
16.1%
26.6%
.298
86
5.01
116
-0.3
Jake Rice
36.7
8.6
5.9
1.2
14.2%
20.7%
.294
86
5.33
117
-0.3
Collin Snider
56.3
6.9
5.0
1.1
12.0%
16.7%
.303
85
5.21
118
-0.3
Zach Davies
99.3
6.9
4.1
1.3
10.2%
17.2%
.298
84
4.98
119
0.4
Conor Grammes
45.0
9.6
6.4
1.2
15.0%
22.5%
.300
84
5.39
119
-0.1
Jackson Goddard
43.0
7.5
5.0
1.3
12.0%
18.0%
.308
84
5.21
119
0.0
Mitchell Stumpo
42.7
8.6
6.1
1.3
14.4%
20.4%
.294
83
5.34
120
-0.3
Jamison Hill
102.7
6.4
5.2
1.1
12.4%
15.4%
.293
83
5.44
121
0.3
Aaron Sanchez
81.3
5.6
4.4
1.1
10.8%
13.7%
.303
83
5.37
121
0.2
Deyni Olivero
82.7
4.5
3.7
1.1
9.1%
10.9%
.301
82
5.21
122
0.2
Chris Rodriguez
45.7
7.3
4.9
1.2
11.8%
17.5%
.302
82
5.18
122
0.0
Madison Bumgarner
104.7
6.5
2.9
1.5
7.5%
16.7%
.292
81
5.21
123
0.2
Marcos Tineo
48.7
7.2
5.5
1.3
12.9%
16.7%
.304
78
5.62
128
-0.1
Ricky Karcher
51.3
9.5
8.6
1.1
19.2%
21.2%
.287
77
5.83
129
-0.7
John Matthews
50.7
6.8
5.2
1.2
12.4%
16.3%
.299
76
5.80
131
-0.4
Zach Barnes
49.0
6.1
5.9
1.1
13.6%
14.0%
.299
76
5.77
131
-0.7
Endrys Briceno
14.7
6.1
6.1
1.2
14.5%
14.5%
.283
69
6.32
146
-0.3
Hugh Fisher
27.3
7.6
7.6
1.3
16.9%
16.9%
.288
67
6.88
149
-0.6
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Zac Gallen
.226
.287
.366
.238
.296
.399
4.6
2.2
3.10
4.17
Paul Sewald
.233
.317
.411
.212
.271
.373
1.5
-0.1
2.59
4.91
Kevin Ginkel
.225
.316
.412
.224
.290
.336
1.2
0.0
2.89
4.55
Eduardo Rodriguez
.256
.316
.413
.248
.304
.396
3.4
1.3
3.12
4.45
Joe Mantiply
.235
.297
.324
.274
.321
.468
0.9
0.0
3.23
4.68
Peter Strzelecki
.260
.345
.416
.214
.291
.347
0.7
-0.3
3.23
5.15
Miguel Castro
.242
.333
.407
.218
.305
.363
0.9
-0.3
3.27
4.83
Brandon Pfaadt
.276
.330
.448
.224
.271
.371
3.3
0.8
3.32
4.77
Merrill Kelly
.244
.306
.409
.250
.300
.413
3.1
1.3
3.50
4.55
Nabil Crismatt
.271
.336
.441
.259
.310
.399
1.1
0.2
3.38
4.66
Drey Jameson
.277
.350
.473
.224
.292
.338
2.1
0.7
3.49
4.63
Andrew Saalfrank
.241
.337
.354
.226
.314
.375
1.0
-0.3
3.28
4.90
Kyle Nelson
.234
.310
.328
.240
.324
.448
0.8
-0.2
3.24
4.98
Luis Frías
.268
.341
.439
.220
.306
.340
1.3
0.0
3.40
4.93
Ryan Thompson
.250
.320
.397
.250
.307
.433
0.6
-0.3
3.42
4.98
Slade Cecconi
.260
.324
.435
.251
.300
.400
2.4
0.6
3.62
4.78
Taylor Rashi
.250
.333
.464
.230
.324
.361
0.4
-0.1
3.58
5.06
Blake Workman
.247
.313
.411
.261
.320
.409
0.5
-0.1
3.45
4.96
Scott McGough
.246
.326
.412
.244
.305
.395
0.9
-0.4
3.31
5.26
Christian Montes De Oca
.273
.365
.444
.239
.297
.385
0.4
-0.3
3.75
4.73
Yu-Min Lin
.248
.340
.360
.244
.325
.405
2.0
0.4
3.76
4.91
Stephen Nogosek
.247
.345
.411
.256
.326
.415
0.5
-0.2
3.62
5.16
Ryne Nelson
.261
.320
.425
.250
.313
.412
2.5
0.7
3.81
4.79
Tyler Gilbert
.241
.303
.370
.258
.321
.442
1.3
0.0
3.75
5.07
Austin Pope
.259
.341
.431
.257
.325
.397
0.9
-0.1
3.68
5.01
Bryce Jarvis
.258
.340
.411
.250
.328
.405
1.6
0.1
3.94
5.08
Tommy Henry
.248
.326
.376
.255
.326
.414
1.8
0.2
3.92
5.10
Dylan Ray
.251
.322
.406
.256
.328
.406
1.5
0.3
3.98
4.95
Kyle Backhus
.236
.317
.319
.261
.346
.446
0.5
-0.3
3.82
5.08
Corbin Martin
.264
.351
.426
.252
.327
.420
1.0
-0.1
3.87
5.16
José Castillo
.245
.351
.347
.245
.342
.439
0.3
-0.4
3.81
5.28
Blake Walston
.250
.354
.368
.266
.340
.413
1.9
0.4
4.14
5.00
Jeff Bain
.280
.355
.467
.260
.310
.397
0.9
0.0
4.01
5.15
Yilber Diaz
.248
.357
.408
.236
.335
.385
1.4
0.0
4.10
5.26
Peter Solomon
.254
.338
.390
.266
.338
.439
1.3
0.0
4.17
5.26
Tyler Zuber
.254
.367
.403
.216
.306
.405
0.3
-0.5
3.93
5.74
Will Mabrey
.268
.338
.408
.256
.350
.417
0.3
-0.5
4.23
5.38
Josh Green
.292
.359
.482
.259
.325
.388
0.5
-0.3
4.25
5.29
Konnor Pilkington
.258
.358
.387
.250
.348
.421
1.1
-0.1
4.18
5.33
Raffi Vizcaíno
.244
.374
.390
.242
.342
.421
0.3
-0.6
4.10
5.68
Luke Albright
.263
.373
.413
.252
.336
.405
1.1
-0.1
4.36
5.35
Gerald Ogando
.253
.356
.413
.253
.359
.402
0.1
-0.6
4.28
5.44
Francisco Morales
.230
.366
.380
.230
.362
.363
0.7
-0.4
4.19
5.67
Justin Martinez
.229
.373
.354
.222
.356
.407
0.3
-0.9
4.08
5.91
Jake Rice
.239
.352
.348
.250
.371
.448
0.0
-0.6
4.33
5.77
Collin Snider
.280
.398
.452
.258
.336
.402
0.1
-0.8
4.35
5.70
Zach Davies
.254
.344
.422
.276
.339
.452
1.0
-0.3
4.46
5.64
Conor Grammes
.256
.402
.476
.228
.351
.348
0.3
-0.6
4.39
5.78
Jackson Goddard
.274
.384
.464
.261
.340
.420
0.3
-0.4
4.45
5.84
Mitchell Stumpo
.247
.370
.416
.247
.358
.416
0.0
-0.8
4.41
6.14
Jamison Hill
.262
.382
.432
.263
.350
.415
0.7
-0.4
4.73
5.69
Aaron Sanchez
.274
.378
.439
.281
.356
.439
0.6
-0.3
4.62
5.65
Deyni Olivero
.290
.363
.469
.280
.347
.423
0.6
-0.3
4.77
5.62
Chris Rodriguez
.270
.375
.449
.258
.346
.409
0.3
-0.3
4.48
5.80
Madison Bumgarner
.244
.303
.389
.277
.341
.483
0.9
-0.5
4.54
5.81
Marcos Tineo
.283
.391
.435
.255
.358
.451
0.2
-0.6
4.80
6.24
Ricky Karcher
.244
.424
.411
.217
.368
.349
-0.2
-1.3
4.67
6.47
John Matthews
.267
.385
.419
.267
.377
.448
-0.1
-0.8
4.96
6.27
Zach Barnes
.283
.402
.467
.260
.366
.394
-0.4
-1.1
5.03
6.18
Endrys Briceno
.259
.394
.444
.258
.395
.387
-0.2
-0.5
5.56
7.37
Hugh Fisher
.250
.429
.406
.253
.412
.453
-0.4
-0.9
5.60
7.36
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.