The offseason will get underway no later than this weekend. While the first few days will be defined by option decisions and qualifying offers, the focus turns to arbitration-eligible players shortly thereafter.
As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for that group. Those figures are not locked in, with teams free to decline to tender contracts to anyone on their 40-man roster who isn’t already on a guaranteed deal. A non-tender sends a player directly to free agency without exposing them to waivers. This offseason’s non-tender deadline is Friday, November 17.
Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary by that date. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money within the next couple weeks. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below the projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing, which typically runs from mid-February into the beginning of March.
With the non-tender deadline a couple weeks away, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.
At least a few of these players will likely be traded within the first couple weeks of the offseason, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela and Kevin Newman were all traded in deals of this ilk last fall.
Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:
Catchers
Christian Bethancourt (Rays), $2.3MM
Cam Gallagher (Guardians), $1.3MM
Kyle Higashioka (Yankees), $2.3MM
Carson Kelly (Tigers), $3.5MM team option*
Andrew Knizner (Cardinals), $2MM
Reese McGuire (Red Sox), $1.7MM
Austin Nola (Padres), $2.35MM
Jacob Stallings (Marlins), $3.6MM
Garrett Stubbs (Phillies), $900K
Luis Torrens (Mariners), $1.3MM
Jose Trevino (Yankees), $2.7MM
First Basemen
Second Basemen
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Center Fielders
Corner Outfielders
Miguel Andujar (Pirates), $2.2MM
Akil Baddoo (Tigers), $1.7MM
Jake Bauers (Yankees), $1.7MM
Seth Brown (Athletics), $2.4MM
Jake Cave (Phillies), $1.4MM
Franchy Cordero (Yankees), $1.6MM
Clint Frazier (White Sox), $900K
Connor Joe (Pirates), $2MM
Ramon Laureano (Guardians), $4.7MM
Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks), $1.61MM
Tim Locastro (Mets), $1.6MM
Ryan McKenna (Orioles), $740K
Billy McKinney (Yankees), $1.2MM
Austin Meadows (Tigers), $4.3MM
Raimel Tapia (Rays), $2.4MM
Designated Hitter
Starting Pitchers
Kolby Allard (Braves), $1MM
Domingo German (Yankees), $4.4MM
Elieser Hernandez (Mets), $1.6MM
Dakota Hudson (Cardinals), $3.7MM
Cole Irvin (Orioles), $1.8MM
Peter Lambert (Rockies), $1.2MM
Michael Soroka (Braves), $3MM
Jose Suarez (Angels), $1.1MM
Touki Toussaint (White Sox), $1.7MM
Spencer Turnbull (Tigers), $2.4MM
Jake Woodford (Cardinals), $1.1MM
Brandon Woodruff (Brewers), $11.6MM
Huascar Ynoa (Braves), $1MM
Right-Handed Relievers
Albert Abreu (Yankees), $900K
Austin Adams (Diamondbacks), $1.1MM
Jorge Alcala (Twins), $1MM
Yency Almonte (Dodgers), $1.9MM
Matt Bowman (Yankees), $1MM
Jeff Brigham (Mets), $1.1MM
Nick Burdi (Cubs), $800K
Matt Bush (Rangers), $2.1MM
JT Chargois (Marlins), $1.2MM
Yonny Chirinos (Braves), $2MM
Adam Cimber (Blue Jays), $3.2MM
Taylor Clarke (Royals), $2.2MM
Sam Coonrod (Mets), $900K
Jimmy Cordero (Yankees), $900K
Dylan Covey (Phillies), $1MM
John Curtiss (Mets), $1MM
J.P. Feyereisen (Dodgers), $1MM
Matt Foster (White Sox), $740K
Trevor Gott (Mets), $2MM
Ben Heller (Braves), $900K
Jonathan Hernandez (Rangers), $1.3MM
Codi Heuer (Cubs), $785K
James Karinchak (Guardians), $1.9MM
Derek Law (Reds), $1.4MM
Trevor Richards (Blue Jays), $2.4MM
Drew Smith (Mets), $2.3MM
Josh Staumont (Royals), $1.2MM
Cole Sulser (Rays), $900K
Dillon Tate (Orioles), $1.5MM
Trent Thornton (Mariners), $1.4MM
Michael Tonkin (Braves), $1MM
Lou Trivino (Yankees), $4.1MM
Jacob Webb (Orioles), $1.2MM
Ryan Weber (Yankees), $900K
Left-Handed Relievers
Keegan Akin (Orioles), $800K
Tyler Alexander (Tigers), $2MM
Jalen Beeks (Rays), $1.8MM
Josh Fleming (Rays), $1MM
Tim Hill (Padres), $2.4MM
Joe Mantiply (Diamondbacks), $1MM
Brett Martin (Rangers), $1.28MM
Adrian Morejon (Padres), $900K
Sean Newcomb (Athletics), $1MM
Jose Quijada (Angels), $1MM
Josh Taylor (Royals), $1.3MM
Ryan Yarbrough (Dodgers), $3.8MM
* Kelly’s projected arbitration salary exceeds the option price