Sheltering from the late spring heat on the Spanish isle of Mallorca, a large group of journalists eagerly awaited Rafael Nadal inside a bright conference room.
In front of the neatly-spaced and smartly dressed members of the press last Thursday, Nadal announced he would not play in the 2023 French Open due to a hip injury, denying his chance of a fifteenth title.
Winning the French Open without Nadal
As his collection of Roland Garros titles steadily increased from 2005, the question for tennis fans was always who could stop the French Open expert at his own tournament.
Now, the tennis landscape has dramatically shifted. With the most successful player of the event removed, the competition has opened into a vicious battle between three rival groups. Novak Djokovic, the NextGen, and younger rising stars like Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner now have an excellent chance at claiming the trophy, but only through defeating the other two, in an epic clay court battle.
Winners of the French Open beyond Nadal (and those who beat the Spaniard) mauled the traditional clay court playbook in favour of higher-risk strategies. Shorter rallies, aggressive baseline hitting, and daring drop-shots mixed with volleys have collectively proved an effective path to victory.
Three Rival Groups
Initially, the outlook for Djokovic looks suboptimal. The recent Rome masters proved that his ongoing elbow injury hampered performance while still being vulnerable to the younger generation.
Holger Rune patiently dismantled Djokovic in the quarter-finals by standing behind the baseline and waiting for Djokovic to make an error or pounce on a short ball from the Serb. This strategy worked, given the situation with Djokovic’s elbow and his relative lack of match practice this year.
But a hungry, aggressive Djokovic with a recovered arm would be a formidable force to beat if his opponent relied on the Serb making errors.
Provided Djokovic has gained enough clay court experience in terms of movement, shot recovery and bounce height, he has no reason to hold back.
An all-out attack from Djokovic would devastate any opponent from the NextGen or younger rising stars. A more accurate and precise first serve out-wide on both sides and an improved second serve have been one key to Djokovic’s latest clutch of grand slam victories from his 2018 US Open victory onwards.
His flat backhand down the line, unexpected drop shots and ghosting into the net also helped him claim the 2021 French Open title.
Above all, his mental game in a grand slam final would be unmatched, especially having come back from two sets down against Stefanos Tsitsipas that same year.
The significance of winning would also spur Djokovic’s determination. A third French Open title would have him go down as the second-best clay courter of all time, while a twenty-third grand slam puts him above Nadal and ties Serena Williams’s major count.
With two grand slams left in the year and clearly the upcoming favourite at Wimbledon, Djokovic can win the most grand slams of any player in history. It would also solidify a mini-comeback for Djokovic after his unexpected Monte-Carlo, Bajka Luka, and Rome exits by quelling doubts about his physical abilities.
With the exception of Daniil Medvedev, the hopes of the NextGen (i.e. the remaining Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev and Tsitsipas) do not look as strong.
Just two years ago, at the 2021 Madrid Masters, Medvedev exclaimed his dislike of playing on clay in a McEnroe-esque display of frustration.
The episode included racquet-throwing and chattering to the umpire in what turned out to be a bizarre round of 32 victory against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. He was later defeated by Cristian Garin in the following round.
The problem for Medvedev was movement. He was so used to sliding and balancing hard courts that he struggled to recover to a ready position after sliding on clay. Having worked on his clay footwork, Medvedev was able to pull off a remarkable feat – his first title victory on the surface, with the Rome Masters 1000.
Take a look at the tactics used by other French Open champions than Nadal, and they bear a striking similarity to Medvedev’s playing style. A short takeback giving the ability to hit balls on the rise, flat shots, acute angles and a mixture of netplay with disguised drop shots is a fertile breeding ground for victory on clay.
Commentators have recently nicknamed him “the professor” for his tactical acuity. Put his recent victory in Rome, improved movement, and game style together, and suddenly one of the most unlikely players becomes a potential champion at the French Open.
Winning here would further separate Medvedev from his NextGen cohort as the only player to win multiple grand slams and spend time as the world number one.
While Medvedev relaxes back into training, Zverev has cruised to the Geneva Open semi-final by walkover in the quarter-final.
His record at Roland Garros is respectable, having reached the quarter-finals twice, then the semi-finals in 2021 and 2022.
Injury has dogged him since his 2022 exit against Nadal, hampering his recovery, eliminating the chance of competitive practice, and sliding him further down the rankings to twenty-seven from six in October last year.
After a straight-sets defeat by Medvedev in the round of 16 at Rome in 2023, an out-of-form Zverev seems unlikely to win the title.
Rublev has an impressive record on clay, with four titles won on the surface, including the Monte-Carlo Masters 1000 event. However, his performance at Roland Garros does not portend to a decent chance of winning the tournament, having been twice as far as the quarter-finals, most recently in 2022.
Similarly, Stefanos Tsitsipas has a positive record on clay with four titles, including the 2021 and 2022 editions of Monte-Carlo. But his mental strength seems to be his downfall in Grand Slams, losing to Djokovic in the 2022 French Open final (again despite his two-set lead) and the 2023 Australian final.
Among the younger rising stars, Carlos Alcaraz seems the best contender. The fact that he has won a Grand Slam at the 2022 US Open will help his belief in winning another tournament of that magnitude.
Becoming the first man to beat Nadal and Djokovic at the same clay court event (the 2022 Madrid Masters 1000) will also provide encouragement.
Alcaraz’s aggressive form of play and tactical variation again echoes back to the successful strategies of past Roland Garros champions. His stamina and sustained energy on the court will be vital because of the “best of five” grand slam format.
His flexibility, too, has proven a powerful weapon to turn defence into attack, hitting winners far beyond the lines of the court. The particularly great depth behind the baselines of Philippe Chatrier will aid Alcaraz as it did Nadal for so many years, increasing the chance of staying in the rally and getting yet another ball back.
Sinner could also have a good chance, though he has won one clay event compared to Alcaraz’s six, including the Spaniard’s back-to-back Madrid titles in 2022 and 2023. Sinner’s flexibility and movement might push him deep into the slam, but he has yet to progress past the quarter-finals of a major (most recently at the 2022 US Open).
Draw Scenarios
The Rome masters have altered the rankings, displacing Djokovic from one to three, Medvedev at two and Alcaraz at one.
The result is that the 2023 French Open draw contains Djokovic, Alcaraz and Rublev in one half, with Medvedev, Rune, Sinner and Zverev in the other half. Djokovic could meet Alcaraz, but only in the semi-finals.
This means that the final will likely be a contest between Medvedev and Djokovic or Alcaraz.
A battle between the NextGen and the rising stars might be interesting, but I would prefer to see Djokovic in the final.
In the last chapter of the big three, a Djokovic victory would be fitting, overcoming not only the NextGen but also the power of new players like Alcaraz – the ultimate domination of shutting out multiple generations from winning grand slams, long after most players have retired in their early thirties.
The chance to go down as the greatest of all time and end the debate could be too tempting for Djokovic. Defeating Alcaraz and Medvedev back-to-back would require herculean strength, but beyond Nadal, only Djokovic is capable.
An alternative situation is Alcaraz wins a second slam, overcomes Djokovic in the semi-finals, then faces Medvedev, or better yet, a fresh battle against his emerging rival Sinner.
Dangers lurk, too, for these key players. Casper Ruud, Davidovich Fokina and Tsitsipas remain strong forces who could upset higher-seeded players and dramatically change the outcome of the latter draw.
Whatever happens, Nadal’s exit has only solidified the resolve of these three warring factions in perhaps the most crucial grand slam of the year.
What are your thoughts on each group’s chances? Can Djokovic make it to twenty-three grand slams, or will a younger generation block him? And how best could each group win the title? Leave your comments below.