Tonight, is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The 2nd Seed, Boston Celtics (57-25, 25-16 Away) are facing elimination against the 8th Seed Miami Heat (44-38, 27-14 Home). Miami has a 3-0 Series lead and has home court advantage. These two teams will play tonight at 8:30 PM EST, at the Kaseya Center, located in Miami, Florida. In addition, the matchup will air on TNT. If you are looking for the best betting odds and stats, here is information to know:
NBA Championship Odds:
Boston Celtics: +1600.Miami Heat: +275.
Player Series Prop: Celtics vs. Heat:
Boston Celtics: +700.Miami Heat: -1100.
*The Miami Heat have the least odds of winning the Eastern Conference Finals. *
Game 4 odds:
NBA Eastern Conference Finals.Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat.Miami: -120 ML, -1.5.Boston: +100, +1.5.Over/Under: 217.
PF Kevin Love (Day-To-Day): Left Lower Leg Strain.PG Tyler Herro (OUT): Hand.SG Victor Oladipo (OUT): Left Knee.
PF Danilo Gallinari (OUT): Knee.
Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points ( -110).
Series Numbers: 26 PPG, 10 REB, 3.7 AST, 0.7 STL.Field Goal Percentage: 45 %.Three-Point Percentage: 25 %.Free Throw Percentage: 95.8 %
It’s no secret Jayson Tatum is struggling in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat. Although Tatum hit over 30 points two times, he’s shooting very poorly from the three. In addition to his shooting struggles, Tatum turns the ball over frequently. We’ve seen Tatum have monstrous games in the playoffs and seen him completely disappear.
One great characteristic of Tatum’s game is his ability to lead in elimination games. In elimination games throughout his career, Tatum averages 27.1 Points, 40.8 Minutes, and shoots 41.7 Percent from the Three. In the 2022 Playoffs, Jayson Tatum scored 23 Points 6 Rebounds, and 8 Assists in an elimination game against the Milwaukee Bucks. In Game 7 of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, Tatum finished with 26 Points, 10 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 2 blocks, and 1 Steal. In addition, Tatum shot 4-7 from the Three.
Both Jayson Tatum and the Celtics know this is a desperation game against the Heat at home. Tatum had 51 Points, 13 Rebounds, 5 Assists, and shot 60 Percent from the Three in Game 7 vs the 76ers. Although Tatum had 14 Points in Game 3, he put up 34 in Points in Game 2, and 30 Points in Game 1. In Games 1 and 2, Jayson Tatum shot under 35 Percent from the Three, and at least 50 Percent from the Field.
Right now, there is not an explanation for Tatum’s struggles. However, we all know how talented he is, and how much he can step up in pivotal games. If he is off to slow start shooting wise, Tatum will have to find a way to limit turnovers, make smart passes, drive to the rim, and utilize the mid-range shot. It will be a tough fight for Boston on the road, however, I expect Tatum to step up.
Overall, Jayson Tatum is averaging 27.8 Points in the Post Season, and 28.6 Points on the road this season. Knowing Tatum does not shoot as well on the road, he will have to adjust his game. If Tatum can get to the Free-Throw line 11-13 times, I also expect him to his that 29.5 line. I like Jayson Tatum OVER 29.5 Points.
Marcus Smart OVER 5.5 Assists (-150).
Series Numbers: 9.3 PPG, 4.7 REB, 7.4 AST.Game 1: 11 Assists.Game 2: 3 Assists.Game 3: 8 Assists.
Although the Boston Celtics lack a true pure Playmaker, Marcus Smart is the heart and soul of this team and knows how to distribute the ball. Not only did Smart have a double-double in Game 1, but he also nearly had another one in Game 3. However, Smart only played 30 minutes in Game 3 against Miami, and the team lacked any sort of facilitating when he was off the court. It’s important to note, Boston pulled their starters in the 4th Quarter due to the Heat’s dominance.
Overall, Marcus Smart averaged 6.3 Assists, and 7 Assists against Miami in the regular season. In addition, Smart averages 5.5 Assists in the postseason, and 6.1 Assists on the road. Although Boston’s starting five can facilitate, Marcus Smart is the guy that can make the right plays, and a floor general who constantly creates opportunities for his team. If Marcus Smart can avoid foul trouble and technicals, I see him getting 6 Assists without a problem.
Marcus Smart is as brilliant on the defensive end as he is on the offensive side. I expect Boston to make their shots, and for Smart to find the plays. When Marcus Smart’s Assists line is at 5.5, the under-hit rate is 41 percent. I like Marcus Smart OVER 5.5 Assists.
Derrick White Over 2.5 Threes (+140).
Series Numbers: 10.3 PPG, 2.3 REB, 1.3 AST, 56 % from the Three.Game 1: 3-6 3PT.Game 2: 3-6 3PT.Game 3: 3-6 3PT.
Derrick White may not score the most points for the Celtics; however, he’s been extremely consistent. In 16 Post Season Games, White is averaging 15.3 Points and is shooting 45.6 Percent from the Three. In three games against Miami, White has hit 3 Threes in each of the games and is averaging 56 Percent from downtown in the series.
Overall, White was consistent shooting wise in both series against the Atlanta Hawks and the Philadelphia 76ers. In addition, he’s shooting 38.4 Percent from the three in road games and is averaging anywhere from 6-9 shots in this series. I love what White brings to the table, especially this post season. If Derrick White can keep his minutes up, I fully expect him to find the corner threes, and make those though shots. Although the Odds are higher, I like Derrick White OVER 2.5 Threes.
Jimmy Butler OVER 5.5 Assists (-150).
Series Numbers: 26 PPG, 7 REB, 6.3 AST. Game 1: 7 Assists. Game 2: 6 Assists.Game 3: 6 Assists.
Jimmy Butler continues to show the entire world why he’s one of the best clutch players in post season basketball, and why the Miami Heat should be taken seriously. Not only has he far exceeded his stats in the Post Season, but he also single- handedly carried this team to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Butler is a leading scorer, playmaker, and defensive staple for this Miami Heat team. In the Playoffs, he’s averaging 29.9 Points, and 5.6 Assists. Additionally, Jimmy Butler is averaging 5.4 Assists at Home Games, and 6.3 Assists in this Series against the Celtics.
Overall, Miami is shooting 47.8 Percent from the Three Point Range, and 52 percent from the Field in the Eastern Conference Finals. Players like Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson can shoot. With the way Boston is playing perimeter defense, I expect Butler to find the open man. I like Jimmy Butler OVER 5.5 Assists, Playoff Jimmy is HIM.
Jimmy Butler OVER 1.5 Steals (-175).
Game 1: 6 Steals.Game 2: 3 Steals.Game 3: 2 Steals.
Jimmy Butler is a force not only on the offensive end, but the defensive side of the ball. Butler is averaging an incredible 2.2 Steals in the Playoffs, and 1.8 Steals in Home Games this season. In addition, Butler is averaging an impressive 3.7 steals, and has 11 steals in the Eastern Conference Finals. Butler hasn’t had under 2 steals in the series against the Celtics, and I expect Miami to apply defensive pressure this game. With the way the Celtics have been turning over the ball, I like Jimmy Butler OVER 1.5 Steals this game.
Gabe Vincent OVER 11.5 Points (-125).
Series Numbers: 17.7 PPG, 2.3 REB, 1.7 AST.Game 1: 15 Points. Game 2: 9 Points.Game 3: 29 Points
Gabe Vincent may only average 12.9 Points in the Playoffs, however, he’s scored big in games. In three Games against Boston this series, Vincent is averaging 17.7 Points Per Game, and is shooting 55.6 Percent from the Three. In addition, Vincent averaged 13 Points Per Game against the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, and 10.3 Points against the Knicks in the second round.
It’s obvious that Boston is not playing efficiently on both sides of the ball this series. Gabe Vincent scored 29 Points and shot 6-9 from the Three in Game 3. In addition, Vincent added 15 Points in Game 1, and has become a reliable scoring option when needed for the Heat.
Although Vincent has some spotty games here and there, I fully expect him to step up with Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo out. I like the minutes Vincent is playing, in addition to Lowry coming off the bench. In fact, he’s averaging 37 minutes a game against Boston this series. Give me Gabe Vincent OVER 11.5 Points.
•Boston averages 114.1 points per game.•Miami averages 114.9 points per game.•Boston ranks 8th in points allowed with 110.6 opponent points per game.•Miami ranks 6th in points allowed with 108.6 opponent points per game.•Boston ranks 9th in rebounds per game with 43.6.•Miami ranks 11th in rebounds per game with 40.6.•Boston ranks 3rd in point differential at +3.4.•Miami ranks 2nd in point differential at +6.2.•Boston ranks 1st in blocked shots with 6.4 per game.•Miami ranks 14th in blocked shots with 3.6 per game.•Boston averages 37.7 percent from the 3-point range, while Miami averages 38.8 percent from the 3-point range.
LAST 10 GAMES + GAME PREDICTION:
SPREAD: Miami -1.5.
-Boston covered the spread in 4 of their last 10 games.-Miami covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.–Boston has a 54-44-0 record ATS this season.-Miami has a 42-53-3 record ATS this season.–Miami is 20-27-2 in HOME games ATS this season.-Boston is 26-22-0 in AWAY games ATS this season.
Miami covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games and is playing great basketball. Boston looks lifeless and has struggled on both ends of the ball. Although Miami has a negative record at home, I trust them at home. Give me Miami -1.5.
MONEY LINE: Miami Heat ML.
-Boston won the Money Line 4 out of their last 10 games.-Miami won the Money Line 8 of their last 10 games.
As much as I want to say Boston will have a comeback win on the road, I just don’t see it here. Miami is playing better basketball and is outcoaching the Celtics. The Heat won 4 straight Money Lines, and I don’t think there is any stopping them. Give me Miami Money Line.
-Boston Avg +/- vs O/U Line: +2.13.-Miami Avg +/- vs O/U Line: +0.94.-Boston Overall O/U Record: 53-43-2.–Miami Overall O/U Record: 52-46-0.-Boston Overall AWAY O/U Record: 23-24-1.–Miami Overall HOME O/U Record: 27-22-0.-Boston hit the OVER 7 times in their last 10 games.-Miami hit the OVER 7 times in their last 10 games.
The First three games hit the over between the Celtics and the Heat. Although I have Heat Money Line, I expect Boston to put up a fight. Although Boston seemed lifeless in the last game, the over hit. Give me the OVER here.
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Sara Jane is a full-time content creator, focusing on both college basketball, the NBA, NFL, and writer of Ballislife.com. Don’t forget to follow her on Twitter/YouTube/Twitch/Instagram: @GGirlSports.
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